2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin

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2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
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  Russ Feingold official photo 2 (cropped).jpg Tim Michels (a).jpg
Nominee Russ Feingold Tim Michels
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,632,6971,301,183
Percentage55.35%44.11%
2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin results map by county.svg
2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin by precinct.svg
Feingold:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Michels:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     
U.S. senator before election

Russ Feingold
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Russ Feingold
Democratic

The 2004 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 2, 2004. Incumbent Senator Russ Feingold won re-election to a third term with more than 55% of the vote against Republican Tim Michels, even as Democrat John Kerry won the state in the concurrent presidential race with just 49.7% of the vote and by only a 0.38% margin. To date, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 3 Senate seat from Wisconsin. Michels later ran unsuccessfully for Governor of Wisconsin in 2022.

Contents

Candidates

Democratic

Democratic primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Russ Feingold 251,915 99.66%
Democratic Scattering8620.34%
Total votes252,777 100.00%

Republican

Republican Primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tim Michels 183,654 42.43%
Republican Russ Darrow130,08830.05%
Republican Robert Welch99,97123.09%
Republican Robert Gerald Lorge18,8094.35%
Republican Scattering3500.08%
Total votes432,872 100.0%

Minor candidates

Libertarian

  • Arif Khan, entrepreneur [4]

Independent

  • Eugene Hem, perennial candidate and former educator [5]

General election

Campaign

Michels insisted he had more real world experience than Feingold, someone he called an "extreme liberal" who was out of touch with Wisconsin voters. [6] Feingold attacked back by saying that any Republican would be a rubber stamp for President Bush. The incumbent had $2.2 million in the bank, while Michels had already spent $1 million in the primary and had only about $150,000 left. [7]

During both the primary and general election campaigns, Michels ran a series of ads attacking Feingold for his status as the sole senator to oppose the 2001 Patriot Act. One of his earliest ads during the primary accused Feingold of putting "his liberal ideology before our safety", while another primary spot featured footage of the September 11 Attacks and a voice-over saying that "our leaders passed new laws to keep us safe. But Russ Feingold voted against those laws." [8] After easily winning the Republican primary against three opponents, Michel released two more anti-Feingold spots focusing on the Patriot Act. One of the ads showed further footage of the September 11 attacks, while another depicted a Middle Eastern spy photographing a Wisconsin nuclear power plant before Michels appears on-screen and announces that "Unlike Russ Feingold, I will support renewing the PATRIOT Act, because we need to be able to track and stop terrorists before they strike again." [8] Michels reported that one-fifth of his campaign's advertising budget was devoted to making and airing the spots. [8]

In October, based on a belief that Feingold was vulnerable due in part to his vote on the Patriot Act, the NRSC pledged $600,000 in support of the Michel campaign. However, after the Michel commercials generated negative attention and Feingold continued to lead comfortably in most polls, the party rescinded their financial assistance. [9] On October 1, a poll showed Feingold leading 52% to 39%. [10] In mid October, another poll showed Feingold winning 48% to 43%. A poll at the end of the month showed him leading 51% to 36%. [11]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12] Safe DNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [13] 		Margin
of error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Tim
Michels (R)		Arif
Khan (L)		Undecided
Zogby International [14] October 27–30, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%57%37%6%
Tarrance Group (R) [15] October 29, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%48%43%9%
Zogby International [16] October 26–29, 2004600 (LV)± 4.1%57%37%6%
Tarrance Group (R) [15] October 28, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%49%41%10%
Zogby International [17] October 25–28, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%57%37%6%
Tarrance Group (R) [15] October 27, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%51%41%8%
Zogby International [18] October 24–27, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%59%36%5%
University of Wisconsin [19] October 23–27, 2004545 (V)± 4%51%36%13%
Tarrance Group (R) [15] October 26, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%52%39%9%
Zogby International [20] October 23–26, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%57%38%5%
Tarrance Group (R) [15] October 25, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%52%40%8%
Zogby International [21] October 22–25, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%54%41%5%
Zogby International [22] October 21–24, 2004601 (LV)± 4.1%54%42%4%
Rasmussen Reports [23] October 14, 2004500 (LV)± 4.5%53%43%2%2%
St. Norbert College [24] October 4–13, 2004401 (LV)± 5%56%33%11%
Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV [25] October 200457%33%10%
Harris Interactive [26] September 22–26, 2004562 (V)± 4%52%39%9%
University of Wisconsin [27] September 15–21, 2004485 (LV)± 4.5%53%38%9%
ABC News [28] September 16–19, 2004775 (LV)± 3.5%51%45%4%
University of Wisconsin [29] June 15–23, 2004504 (V)± 4%36%12%52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [13] 		Margin
of error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Russ
Darrow (R)		Undecided
University of Wisconsin [29] June 15–23, 2004504 (V)± 4%40%16%44%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [13] 		Margin
of error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Robert
Welch (R)		Undecided
University of Wisconsin [29] June 15–23, 2004504 (V)± 4%36%10%54%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [13] 		Margin
of error		Russ
Feingold (D)		Robert Gerald
Lorge (R)		Undecided
University of Wisconsin [29] June 15–23, 2004504 (V)± 4%39%10%51%

Results

General election results [30]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Russ Feingold (incumbent) 1,632,697 55.35%
Republican Tim Michels1,301,18344.11%
Libertarian Arif Khan8,3670.28%
Independent Eugene A. Hem6,6620.23%
Write-in 8340.03%
Total votes2,949,743 100.00%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

References

  1. 1 2 "2004 SENATE RACES" (PDF). CBS News . Retrieved January 10, 2020.
  2. 1 2 "Archived copy". elections.state.wi.us. Archived from the original on May 14, 2005. Retrieved July 20, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. 1 2 "Our Campaigns - WI US Senate - R Primary Race - Sep 14, 2004".
  4. ↑ "In Wisconsin, a Muslim Libertarian for Senate". The Pluralism Project. July 6, 2004. Retrieved January 10, 2020.
  5. ↑ Thoreson, Bridget (October 27, 2004). "Incumbent Feingold faces competition in Senate race". Marquette Wire . Retrieved January 11, 2020.
  6. ↑ "MICHELS TOUTS RURAL ROOTS IN JOINING GOP SENATE RACE.(FRONT) - The Capital Times | HighBeam Research". November 4, 2012. Archived from the original on November 4, 2012.
  7. ↑ "Michels, Feingold already sparring". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. September 16, 2004. Archived from the original on April 28, 2016 – via news.google.com.
  8. 1 2 3 Weigel, David (November 2005). "When Patriots Dissent". Reason. Retrieved November 13, 2021.
  9. ↑ Masse, Ryan (October 15, 2004). "Republican committee pulls ads for Michels". The Badger Herald. Retrieved January 11, 2020.
  10. ↑ Zielinski, Graeme (October 1, 2004). "Feingold holds big lead over Michels, poll says". nl.newsbank.com. Archived from the original on June 9, 2011.
  11. ↑ Zielinski, Graeme (October 30, 2004). "Feingold, Michels each say campaign is going his way". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Archived from the original on May 13, 2016 – via news.google.com/.
  12. ↑ "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  13. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  14. ↑ Zogby International
  15. 1 2 3 4 5 Tarrance Group (R)
  16. ↑ Zogby International
  17. ↑ Zogby International
  18. ↑ Zogby International
  19. ↑ University of Wisconsin
  20. ↑ Zogby International
  21. ↑ Zogby International
  22. ↑ Zogby International
  23. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  24. ↑ St. Norbert College
  25. ↑ Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV
  26. ↑ Harris Interactive
  27. ↑ University of Wisconsin
  28. ↑ ABC News
  29. 1 2 3 4 University of Wisconsin
  30. ↑ "2004 Fall General Election results" (PDF). Wisconsin Government Accountability Board. November 2, 2004. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 13, 2015. Retrieved March 30, 2015.

Debates

Official campaign websites (archived)
Democrats

Republicans

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