2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
  1998 November 2, 2004 2010  
  Jim Bunning official photo.jpg Daniel Mongiardo by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Nominee Jim Bunning Daniel Mongiardo
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote873,507850,855
Percentage50.66%49.34%

2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
County results
Bunning:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Mongiardo:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

U.S. senator before election

Jim Bunning
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Jim Bunning
Republican

The 2004 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2004, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning narrowly won re-election to a second term over Democratic State Senator Daniel Mongiardo. This election was the first time since 1962 that an incumbent Republican senator won re-election to this seat.

Contents

Democratic primary

Background

Former Governor Paul E. Patton was considered the initial frontrunner in the Democratic primary, but he opted not to run due to a scandal over an extramarital affair. Eventually, the Democrats settled on Daniel Mongiardo, a relatively unknown doctor and State Senator from Hazard, Kentucky.

Candidates

Results

Democratic primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Daniel Mongiardo 142,162 64.92%
Democratic David L. Williams76,80735.08%
Total votes218,969 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary results [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jim Bunning (incumbent) 96,545 84.00%
Republican Barry Metcalf18,39516.00%
Total votes114,940 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Campaign

During his reelection bid in 2004, controversy erupted when Bunning described Mongiardo as looking "like one of Saddam Hussein's sons." Bunning apologized, then later went on to declare that Mongiardo's "thugs" had assaulted his wife. [3] [4]

Bunning had an estimated $4 million campaign war chest, while Mongiardo had only $600,000. The Democrats began increasing financial support to Mongiardo when it became apparent that Bunning's bizarre behavior was costing him votes, purchasing more than $800,000 worth of additional television airtime on his behalf.

The November 2 election was one of the closest in Kentucky history. The race turned out to be very close, with Mongiardo leading with as many as 80% of the returns coming in. However, Bunning eventually won by just over one percentage point after the western portion of the state, which is on Central Time, broke heavily for him. Some analysts felt that because of President George W. Bush's 20% margin of victory in the state, Bunning was able to effectively ride the President's coattails to victory.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Sabato's Crystal Ball [5] Lean RNovember 1, 2004

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Jim
Bunning (R)
Daniel
Mongiardo (D)
Other /
Undecided
SurveyUSA [6] October 28–30, 2004631 (LV)± 4.0%51%42%6%

Results

2004 Kentucky U.S. Senator general election [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Jim Bunning (incumbent) 873,507 50.66% +0.91%
Democratic Daniel Mongiardo 850,85549.34%+0.18%
Turnout 1,724,362
Republican hold Swing

By county

CountyBunningVotesMongiardoVotes
Adair 69%4,85731%2,151
Allen 70%4,64030%2,030
Anderson 51%4,67649%4,540
Ballard 43%1,75257%2,331
Barren 58%8,74942%6,459
Bath 37%1,67363%2,910
Bell 44%4,44256%5,646
Boone 71%31,16229%12,543
Bourbon 46%3,61454%4,250
Boyd 49%10,18151%10,713
Boyle 52%6,17948%5,806
Bracken 66%2,24934%1,183
Breathitt 28%1,60772%4,201
Breckinridge 57%4,63343%3,550
Bullitt 57%15,67543%11,913
Butler 70%3,66530%1,601
Caldwell 50%3,02550%3,034
Calloway 51%7,45649%7,063
Campbell 64%24,60336%14,079
Carlisle 48%1,32752%1,412
Carroll 48%1,78852%1,971
Carter 45%4,79455%5,754
Casey 75%4,48325%1,476
Christian 63%12,33137%7,304
Clark 48%7,04752%7,559
Clay 62%4,33638%2,643
Clinton 77%3,09423%937
Crittenden 55%2,21445%1,813
Cumberland 73%2,10327%782
Daviess 51%20,14849%19,739
Edmonson 62%3,16538%1,942
Elliott 28%80172%2,025
Estill 55%2,89245%2,414
Fayette 41%50,20959%70,798
Fleming 52%3,08048%2,815
Floyd 29%5,01571%12,092
Franklin 34%7,99866%15,324
Fulton 46%1,23754%1,426
Gallatin 59%1,73641%1,184
Garrard 60%3,76740%2,556
Grant 65%5,49735%3,007
Graves 48%7,44852%8,036
Grayson 62%5,89438%3,618
Green 68%3,32432%1,556
Greenup 50%7,80450%7,874
Hancock 48%1,83452%2,010
Hardin 57%19,91643%14,910
Harlan 31%3,34069%7,265
Harrison 50%3,73850%3,702
Hart 56%3,51844%2,785
Henderson 47%8,41953%9,490
Henry 52%3,26648%3,024
Hickman 49%1,09351%1,159
Hopkins 56%10,16144%7,930
Jackson 78%3,75522%1,070
Jefferson 40%134,69960%198,541
Jessamine 56%10,00244%7,730
Johnson 59%5,24241%3,711
Kenton 65%42,15835%22,759
Knott 19%1,34581%5,811
Knox 59%6,68541%4,591
LaRue 60%3,42940%2,241
Laurel 67%14,42733%7,014
Lawrence 54%3,32246%2,790
Lee 59%1,60641%1,126
Leslie 51%2,43849%2,339
Letcher 32%2,75168%5,884
Lewis 70%3,56230%1,509
Lincoln 57%4,87043%3,695
Livingston 45%2,02555%2,520
Logan 59%5,84741%4,099
Lyon 45%1,68055%2,082
Madison 50%14,74350%14,790
Magoffin 43%2,10057%2,816
Marion 41%2,88159%4,112
Marshall 48%7,19152%7,937
Martin 65%2,74435%1,497
Mason 59%3,88441%2,748
McCracken 52%14,93448%13,940
McCreary 71%3,60329%1,501
McLean 49%2,07851%2,179
Meade 53%5,57447%5,000
Menifee 39%94661%1,484
Mercer 53%5,01947%4,534
Metcalfe 58%2,26042%1,608
Monroe 77%3,94023%1,156
Montgomery 43%4,13057%5,558
Morgan 39%1,80061%2,758
Muhlenberg 44%5,60456%7,178
Nelson 48%7,75452%8,300
Nicholas 43%1,23657%1,638
Ohio 56%5,37144%4,202
Oldham 59%15,75141%10,731
Owen 58%2,63742%1,909
Owsley 63%1,14237%660
Pendleton 65%3,82435%2,042
Perry 23%2,62077%8,659
Pike 39%9,67261%15,293
Powell 41%1,96159%2,806
Pulaski 67%16,05333%7,848
Robertson 54%55946%468
Rockcastle 69%3,95631%1,812
Rowan 40%3,38860%5,032
Russell 69%5,09231%2,242
Scott 49%8,12651%8,364
Shelby 54%8,54446%7,269
Simpson 56%3,66544%2,938
Spencer 57%3,79943%2,821
Taylor 63%6,11937%3,643
Todd 63%2,69637%1,550
Trigg 58%3,35442%2,457
Trimble 50%1,86550%1,852
Union 49%2,79151%2,880
Warren 56%21,25844%16,457
Washington 56%2,76144%2,146
Wayne 60%4,21440%2,783
Webster 48%2,49052%2,738
Whitley 64%8,08236%4,620
Wolfe 33%91167%1,856
Woodford 44%4,88756%6,196

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. "Mongiardo Campaign Not Satisfied With Bunning Apology - wave3.com-Louisville News, Weather & Sports". Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 30, 2010.
  2. 1 2 "Archived copy". Archived from the original on July 20, 2011. Retrieved April 17, 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  3. "Bunning apologizes for Saddam comparison". USA Today . AP. April 1, 2004. Retrieved March 5, 2008.
  4. Paul Farhi (October 15, 2004). "Bunning's Wild Pitches Tighten Kentucky Senate Race". The Washington Post . pp. A06. Retrieved March 5, 2008.
  5. "The Final Predictions". Sabato's Crystal Ball. November 2004. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
  6. SurveyUSA
  7. "Archived copy". Archived from the original on May 20, 2010. Retrieved May 12, 2010.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)

Official campaign websites (Archived)