2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky
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  Rand Paul Official Portrait (cropped).jpg Charles solar panels (cropped).jpg
Nominee Rand Paul Charles Booker
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote913,326564,311
Percentage61.80%38.19%
2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
Ky-2022-sen-districts.svg
Paul:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Booker:     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Rand Paul
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rand Paul
Republican

The 2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent Kentucky. Incumbent Republican Rand Paul won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic nominee Charles Booker with 61.8% of the vote.

Contents

Paul was first elected in 2010 with 55.7% of the vote, filling the seat of retiring Jim Bunning, then re-elected in 2016 with 57.3% of the vote. Paul ran for a third term. [1] Booker is a former state representative and a candidate in the Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate in 2020. The election was called for Paul shortly after polls closed in the state. [2]

This was the biggest landslide victory for a U.S. Senate race in Kentucky since Mitch McConnell's win in 2002.

Background

Although Rand Paul supports a Constitutional amendment limiting Senators to two terms, he said, "I'm not in favor of term limits for some and not others. So I'm not in favor of people self-imposing term limits. I'm a co-sponsor of the constitutional amendment, but I will run again in 2022." [1] Kentucky held its primary election on May 17. [3]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Arnold Blankenship, retiree [5]
  • Valerie Frederick [5]
  • Paul V. Hamilton, economics professor [6]
  • John Schiess, perennial candidate [5]
  • Tami Stanfield, former sales executive [5]

Endorsements

Rand Paul

Executive Branch officials

Statewide officials

Organizations

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Paul 70-80% 80-90% 90-100% 2022 United States Senate Republican primary election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Paul
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rand Paul (incumbent) 333,051 86.35%
Republican Valerie Frederick14,0183.63%
Republican Paul V. Hamilton13,4733.49%
Republican Arnold Blankenship10,0922.62%
Republican Tami Stanfield9,5262.47%
Republican John Schiess5,5381.44%
Total votes385,698 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Joshua Blanton Sr., Army veteran [14]
  • Ruth Gao, educator and activist [15]
  • John Merrill, chemist and Navy veteran [5]

Declined

Endorsements

Results

Results by county: Booker 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Blanton 40-50% Merrill 60-70% 2022 United States Senate Democratic primary election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Booker
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  Blanton
  •   40–50%
  Merrill
  •   60–70%
Democratic primary results [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Charles Booker 214,245 73.29%
Democratic Joshua Blanton Sr.30,98010.60%
Democratic John Merrill28,9319.90%
Democratic Ruth Gao18,1546.21%
Total votes292,310 100.0%

General election

Although Paul had initially pledged to serve only one term, [33] he later reversed this stance and ran for re-election. [34] In both 2010 and 2016, he faced tight races, even as these years were generally unfavorable for the Democratic Party and Kentucky's conservative partisan lean. Paul had gained a reputation as one of the most libertarian senators and often breaks with his party despite still holding conservative views on most issues. [35] [36]

Following a narrow primary defeat to Amy McGrath in the 2020 Kentucky Senate Democratic primaries, State Representative Charles Booker announced his intention to run again, this time against Paul. [37] Booker positioned himself as a progressive populist, advocating for abortion rights, Universal Basic Income, Medicare for All, and a Green New Deal. [38] He aimed to resonate with traditional Democratic voters in the urban centers of Louisville and Lexington, while also reaching out to ancestral Democrats in Kentucky's Appalachian region. [39]

An early February poll showed Paul leading by only a few points against a generic Democrat. [40] However, a later poll revealed Paul had a substantial lead over Booker. [41] In October, a debate was scheduled to include both Paul and Booker, but Paul did not respond to the invitation, resulting in Booker debating alone. [42]

Paul went on to easily win re-election, improving his 2016 performance by approximately 9 percentage points. However, due to lower voter turnout, he underperformed compared to Trump's 2020 performance in the state by 2 points and received a slightly smaller percentage of the vote.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [43] Solid RNovember 19, 2021
Inside Elections [44] Solid RJanuary 7, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [45] Safe RNovember 3, 2021
Politico [46] Solid ROctober 18, 2022
RCP [47] Safe RJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News [48] Solid RMay 12, 2022
DDHQ [49] Solid RJuly 20, 2022
538 [50] Solid RJune 30, 2022
The Economist [51] Safe RSeptember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Rand Paul (R)

Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

Sheriffs

Organizations

Charles Booker (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

Newspapers

Labor unions

Organizations

Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Rand
Paul (R)		Charles
Booker (D)		Undecided
Mason-Dixon [67] January 19–22, 2022625 (RV)± 4.0%55%39%6%
Hypothetical polling

Rand Paul vs. generic Democrat

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Rand
Paul (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Mason-Dixon [68] February 1–4, 2021625 (RV)± 4.0%47%41%12%

Results

2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky [69]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Rand Paul (incumbent) 913,326 61.80% +4.53%
Democratic Charles Booker 564,31138.19%−4.54%
Write-in 1930.01%+0.01%
Total votes1,477,830 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Paul won 5 of 6 congressional districts. [70]

DistrictPaulBookerRepresentative
1st 71%29% James Comer
2nd 68%32% Brett Guthrie
3rd 40%60% John Yarmuth (117th Congress)
Morgan McGarvey (118th Congress)
4th 66%34% Thomas Massie
5th 75%25% Hal Rogers
6th 54%46% Andy Barr

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

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References

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  2. ↑ "Rand Paul reelected for third term". WKYT. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  3. ↑ WLKY Digital Team (May 10, 2022). "Voter guide: Kentucky primary election 2022". Wlky.com. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  4. ↑ "Sen. Rand Paul announces he has filed for re-election". WBKO. January 5, 2022.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 "Election Candidate Filings". Kentucky Secretary of State. Retrieved January 7, 2022.
  6. ↑ "Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings". Kentucky Secretary of State - Candidate Filings. Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  7. 1 2 Kobin, Bill (April 9, 2021). "Donald Trump endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul for 2022 reelection". The Courier-Journal . Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  8. 1 2 "I was proud to speak at Senator @RandPaul's campaign kickoff event in Oldham County tonight! Let's Stand with Rand & help send a Republican Senate Majority to D.C. this year". Twitter . April 30, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  9. 1 2 "Club for Growth PAC Endorsed Candidates" . Retrieved January 28, 2022.
  10. 1 2 "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Rand Paul in the Kentucky U.S. Senate Race". www.freedomworksforamerica.org. August 25, 2021. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
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  12. 1 2 "May 17, 2022 Official 2022 Primary Election Results" (PDF). Secretary of State of Kentucky . Retrieved September 1, 2022.
  13. ↑ "It's official: Charles Booker will run for Senate again, this time against Rand Paul". WLKY. July 1, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
  14. ↑ Smith, Lawrence (June 30, 2021). "Democrats begin lining up for right to challenge Sen. Rand Paul". WDRB. Retrieved July 31, 2021.
  15. ↑ "Ruth Gao announces U.S. Senate run in Kentucky, aims to become 'first millennial woman Senator'". WLEX-TV . June 30, 2021. Retrieved July 1, 2021.
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  18. 1 2 Breon Martin (May 2, 2021). "US Sen. Bernie Sanders holds rally with Charles Booker in Louisville". WDRB.
  19. 1 2 Morgan Watkins (July 26, 2021). "Sen. Elizabeth Warren endorses Charles Booker in bid for Rand Paul's Senate seat". Courier Journal.
  20. 1 2 "Rep. John Yarmuth backs Charles Booker in his bid to unseat Sen. Rand Paul". The Courier-Journal . November 11, 2021. Retrieved November 11, 2021.
  21. 1 2 3 4 "Charles Booker picks up major union endorsement in run for U.S. Senate". WLKY. July 21, 2021. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
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  23. 1 2 "Our Recommended Candidates". educationvotes.nea.org. National Education Association.
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  29. 1 2 "Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
  30. 1 2 "Sunrise Movement endorses progressive Democrats Summer Lee, Nida Allam and Erica Smith for Congress". March 24, 2022. Archived from the original on March 24, 2022. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  31. 1 2 "Our Candidates". Working Families Party.
  32. 1 2 Scott Recker (October 15, 2021). "Civil Rights Attorney Ben Crump Endorses Charles Booker For Senate". LEO Weekly.
  33. ↑ Selleck, Stacey (September 28, 2015). "Rand Paul Signs U.S. Term Limits Pledge - U.S. Term Limits" . Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  34. ↑ "Sen. Rand Paul officially files for re-election". spectrumnews1.com. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
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  38. ↑ "Charles Booker on the Issues". www.ontheissues.org. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  39. ↑ "Stand up for Kentucky Coal Miners". Charles Booker For U.S. Senate. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  40. ↑ Watkins, Morgan. "Mason-Dixon poll: Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul is in good shape for reelection next year". The Courier-Journal. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  41. ↑ "2022 Kentucky Senate - Paul vs. Booker | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  42. ↑ "Rand Paul declines to debate Charles Booker on KET". Louisville Public Media. September 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2024.
  43. ↑ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  44. ↑ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  45. ↑ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  46. ↑ "Kentucky Senate Race 2022". Politico . April 1, 2022.
  47. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
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  49. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  50. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  51. ↑ "The Economist's 2022 Senate Election forecast". The Economist. September 18, 2022. Retrieved September 18, 2022.
  52. ↑ Kobin, Bill (July 15, 2022). "Biden Drops Plan to Name Anti-Abortion Lawyer Backed by McConnell as Judge". The New York Times . Retrieved July 16, 2022. Mr. McConnell said he backed Mr. Paul's re-election bid this year.
  53. ↑ "Paul and Barr speak at Republican 'Boots and Bluegrass' event". www.richmondregister.com. October 24, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  54. ↑ "Senator Rand Paul, Ag. Commissioner Ryan Quarles visit Hopkinsville". whopam.com. October 1, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  55. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "DR. RAND PAUL RECEIVES ENDORSEMENT FROM OWENSBORO AREA SHERIFFS, RELEASES AD ON DEFENDING LAW ENFORCEMENT". randpaul.com. October 11, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  56. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "Rand Paul's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 11, 2022.
  57. ↑ "CCAGW PAC Endorses Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul and Four House Candidates". finance.yahoo.com. October 13, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  58. ↑ Storm, Nick (September 12, 2022). "Rand Paul Endorsed by KY Fraternal Order of Police". www.kentuckyfried.com. Retrieved September 13, 2022.
  59. ↑ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Kentucky". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link)
  60. ↑ "Charles Booker's primary win was historic. But his Senate run against Rand Paul faces a tough road ahead". May 23, 2022.
  61. 1 2 3 4 5 Storm, Nick (September 1, 2022). "Charles Booker Endorsed by Gov. Beshear & Former KY Governors". www.kentuckyfried.com.
  62. ↑ "The Herald-Leader endorses Charles Booker for Senate". amp.kentucky.com. October 21, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  63. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 "Charles Booker's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  64. ↑ "LegalizeKY".
  65. ↑ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Charles Booker for U.S. Senate in Kentucky". NARAL Pro-Choice America. August 23, 2022. Retrieved October 28, 2022.
  66. ↑ "Congressional Endorsements". Sierra Club Independent Action.
  67. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  68. ↑ Mason-Dixon
  69. ↑ "November 8, 2022 - Official 2022 General Election Results" (PDF). Commonwealth of Kentucky State Board of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 24, 2022. Retrieved January 3, 2023.
  70. ↑ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

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