2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont

Last updated

2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont's at-large district
Flag of Vermont.svg
←  2020 November 8, 2022 2024  →
  Rep. Becca Balint - 118th Congress (Cropped).jpg Madden.png
Nominee Becca Balint Liam Madden
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote176,49478,397
Percentage60.45%26.85%
2022 House election in Vermont results map by county (1).svg
2022 United States House election in Vermont results map by municipality.svg
VT House 2022.svg
Balint:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Madden:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%
     No votes
U.S. Representative before election

Peter Welch
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Becca Balint
Democratic

The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative from Vermont's at-large congressional district . The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the U.S. Senate, as well as various other state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democrat Peter Welch was re-elected with 67.3% of the vote in 2020. After eight-term U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy announced he would retire on November 15, some speculated that Welch might decline to seek re-election and instead seek election to the Senate. [1] On November 22, 2021, Welch announced his candidacy for Leahy's seat, creating the first open U.S. House seat in Vermont since Bernie Sanders ran for the U.S. Senate in 2006. [2]

Democratic nominee Becca Balint won the election in a landslide, becoming the first elected female member of the United States Congress in the state's history. Her main opponent in the general election, Liam Madden, won the Republican nomination but identifies as an independent who opposes the two-party system. [3] Madden stated that he would not caucus with House Republicans if elected to Congress; the Vermont Republican Party later disavowed his campaign. [4] Ericka Redic, who lost the Republican primary to Madden, ran in the general election as the nominee of the Libertarian Party. [5]

Vermont was the last remaining state that had never elected a woman to the United States Congress after Mississippi elected its first woman in 2018. With Balint's victory, every U.S. state has now been represented in Congress by a woman at some point.

Democratic primary

Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray finished second in the primary. MollyGrayCrop.jpg
Lieutenant Governor Molly Gray finished second in the primary.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Becca Balint
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
State legislators
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Sianay Chase Clifford (withdrew)
Organizations
Molly Gray
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
State officials
Kesha Ram (withdrew)
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
State legislators
Individuals
  • Bill McKibben, environmental activist and author [29] (switched endorsement to Balint after Ram withdrew) [28]
Labor unions
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Becca
Balint		Sianay Chase
Clifford		Molly
Gray		Louis
Meyers		Kesha
Ram		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D) July 27 – August 1, 2022383 (LV)± 5.0%59%1%27%1%––12%
University of New Hampshire July 21–25, 2022352 (LV)± 5.2%63%–21%2%–0%13%
July 19, 2022Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of the race
May 27, 2022Kesha Ram drops out of the race
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022278 (LV)± 5.9%28%0%21%–19%1%31%
VPR/Vermont PBS January 3–9, 2022418 (LV)± 4.8%11%–31%–0%12%47%

Results

Democratic primary results by municipality .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Balint 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 90-100% Gray 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 90-100% Tie 2022 United States House of Representatives Democratic primary election in Vermont results map by municipality.svg
Democratic primary results by municipality
  Balint
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Gray
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
  Tie
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Becca Balint 61,025 60.6%
Democratic Molly Gray 37,26637.0%
Democratic Louis Meyers1,5931.6%
Democratic Sianay Chase Clifford (withdrawn)8850.9%
Total votes100,769 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Liam
Madden		Ericka
Redic		Anya
Tynio		Undecided
University of New Hampshire July 21–25, 2022196 (LV)± 7.0%14%15%9%61%

Results

Liam Madden won the primary in a surprise victory, as Redic was considered the frontrunner. [4] The Vermont Republican Party disavowed Madden's campaign following a meeting with him on August 15, less than a week after his victory in the primary, citing his refusal to commit to caucusing with the Republican Party if he won the election. [4] Redic announced that she would continue her campaign into the general election as the candidate of the Libertarian Party of Vermont. [5]

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Liam Madden 10,701 41.4%
Republican Ericka Bundy Redic8,25531.9%
Republican Anya Tynio6,90826.7%
Total votes25,864 100.0%

Progressive primary

Candidates

Withdrew after winning primary

  • Barbara Nolfi, clinic co-founder [51] [46]

Declined

Results

Progressive primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Progressive Barbara Nolfi 439 100.0
Total votes439 100.0

Independents and other parties

Businesswoman Ericka Redic, the runner-up in the Republican primary, was the Libertarian nominee. Ericka and Benjamin Redic on Generally Irritable (closer crop).jpg
Businesswoman Ericka Redic, the runner-up in the Republican primary, was the Libertarian nominee.

Candidates

Declared

  • Matt Druzba (independent) [46]
  • Adam Ortiz [46]
  • Ericka Redic (Libertarian), businesswoman and community activist [47] [5] (previously Republican)
  • Luke Talbot [46]

Withdrawn

General election

Debate

2022 Vermont U.S. House of Representatives debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Democratic Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Becca Balint Liam Madden
1Oct. 11, 2022 Vermont Public Connor Cyrus YouTube PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [53] Solid DOctober 5, 2021
Inside Elections [54] Solid DOctober 11, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball [55] Safe DOctober 5, 2021
Politico [56] Solid DApril 5, 2022
RCP [57] Safe DJune 9, 2022
Fox News [58] Solid DJuly 11, 2022
DDHQ [59] Solid DJuly 20, 2022
538 [60] Solid DJune 30, 2022

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Becca
Balint (D)		Liam
Madden (R)		Ericka
Redic (L)		OtherUndecided
Data for Progress (D) October 21–26, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%54%29%5%3% [lower-alpha 3] 9%
University of New Hampshire September 29 – October 3, 2022765 (LV)± 3.5%57%19%9%11% [lower-alpha 4] 12%
Hypothetical polling
Becca Balint vs. Marcia Horne
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Becca
Balint (D)		Marcia
Horne (R)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022583 (LV)± 4.1%48%25%0%26%
Sianay Chase Clifford vs. Marcia Horne
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Sianay Chase
Clifford (D)		Marcia
Horne (R)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022583 (LV)± 4.1%42%25%0%33%
Molly Gray vs. Marcia Horne
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Molly
Gray (D)		Marcia
Horne (R)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022583 (LV)± 4.1%49%27%1%23%
Kesha Ram vs. Marcia Horne
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 2] 		Margin
of error		Kesha
Ram (D)		Marcia
Horne (R)		OtherUndecided
University of New Hampshire April 14–18, 2022583 (LV)± 4.1%47%26%0%27%

Results

2022 Vermont's at-large congressional district election [61]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Becca Balint 176,494 60.45% –6.86%
Republican Liam Madden 78,29726.85%–0.16%
Libertarian Ericka Redic12,5904.31%N/A
Independent Matt Druzba5,7371.97%N/A
Independent Luke Talbot4,4281.52%N/A
Independent Adam Ortiz3,3761.16%N/A
Write-in 1,0040.34%+0.19%
Total votes291,955 100.00%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. ↑ Candidate is a member of the Progressive Party, but ran with the Democratic Party's endorsement under Vermont's electoral fusion system
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ↑ Talbot (I), Oritz (I), and Druzba (I) with 1%
  4. ↑ Talbot (I) and "Other" with 1%; Ortiz (I) and Druzba (I) with 0%

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References

  1. ↑ Allison, Natalie (November 15, 2021). "Leahy, most senior senator, will retire". POLITICO. Retrieved November 16, 2021.
  2. 1 2 Forgey, Quint (November 22, 2021). "Rep. Peter Welch launches Senate bid for Leahy's seat". Politico. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
  3. ↑ "Madden 'up in the air' about accepting GOP nomination for US House". WCAX-TV . August 9, 2022. Retrieved August 14, 2022.
  4. 1 2 3 Cutler, Calvin (August 15, 2022). "Vermont GOP will not support Liam Madden for US House". WCAX. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
  5. 1 2 3 Weinstein, Ethan (August 11, 2022). "Ericka Redic, runner-up in Republican primary, running for U.S. House as a Libertarian". VTDigger. Retrieved August 17, 2022.
  6. ↑ Duffort, Lola (December 13, 2021). "Becca Balint, leader of the Vermont Senate, joins race for U.S. House". VT Digger. Montpelier, VT.
  7. ↑ "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray announces run for Vermont's sole US House seat". myNBC5.com. December 6, 2021. Retrieved December 6, 2021.
  8. ↑ Mann, Rachel (April 26, 2022). "Congressional candidates meet for first forum". WCAX.
  9. ↑ Duffort, Lola (March 15, 2022). "Former congressional aide Sianay Chase Clifford to run for US House". VTDigger. Retrieved March 21, 2022.
  10. ↑ Chien, Lia; Mearhoff, Sarah (July 19, 2022). "Sianay Chase Clifford drops out of US House race". VTDigger. Retrieved July 19, 2022.
  11. 1 2 Cutler, Calvin (May 27, 2022). "Kesha Ram Hinsdale drops out of US House race, endorses Becca Balint". WCAX . Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  12. 1 2 3 4 Dritschilo, Gordon (December 2, 2021). "Some names emerge in congressional race, some don't". The Barre Montpelier Times Argus.
  13. ↑ Johnson, Mark (June 16, 2021). "Lt. Gov. Molly Gray Says She's Too Focused on Her Current Role to Think About Running for Congress". Seven Days.
  14. 1 2 Grim, Ryan (November 15, 2021). "Bernie Sanders Could Snuff Out a Potential Primary Contest to Replace Patrick Leahy". The Intercept. Retrieved November 22, 2021.
  15. 1 2 Cutler, Calvin (November 30, 2021). "Will Vermont send a woman to Washington?". WCAX.com.
  16. 1 2 Higdon, Bridget (May 4, 2022). "Rep. Tanya Vyhovsky announces candidacy for new Chittenden-Central State Senate District". The Essex Reporter.
  17. ↑ Krieg, Gregory (August 10, 2022). "Becca Balint will win the Democratic nomination for Vermont's House seat, CNN projects". CNN. Retrieved August 10, 2022.
  18. ↑ Gans, Jared (July 6, 2022). "Bernie Sanders weighs into Vermont House race". The Hill . Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  19. 1 2 3 4 Villa Huerta, Lissandra (July 6, 2022). "Senator Bernie Sanders endorses in Vermont's Democratic primary". The Boston Globe . Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  20. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (July 19, 2022). "Elizabeth Warren, who backed Gray's LG bid in 2020, endorses Balint for Vermont's House seat". VT Digger.
  21. 1 2 3 4 Goldstein, Sasha (July 6, 2022). "Bernie Sanders Endorses Balint in Vermont's U.S. House Race". Seven Days . Retrieved July 7, 2022.
  22. 1 2 Schnell, Mychael (May 11, 2022). "Jayapal endorses six progressive House candidates". Politico. Retrieved May 11, 2022.
  23. 1 2 3 Cutler, Calvin (June 28, 2022). "How endorsements can help set similar candidates apart". WCAX-TV . Montpelier, Vermont . Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  24. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Mearhoff, Sarah; Robinson, Riley (March 29, 2022). "Final Reading: 'I can't be their babysitter': On the campaign trail". VTDigger.
  25. ↑ "BECCA IS ENDORSED BY MAJOR NATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, LOCAL ELECTED OFFICIALS, AND COMMUNITY LEADERS ALL ACROSS VERMONT". Becca Balint for U.S. Congress. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  26. ↑ Sibilia, Laura (March 23, 2022). "Letter: Endorsing Becca Balint for Congress". Brattleboro Reformer.
  27. ↑ McCallum, Kevin (December 13, 2021). "Vermont Sen. Becca Balint Announces Run for U.S. House". Seven Days . Retrieved February 27, 2022.
  28. 1 2 Mearhoff, Sarah (June 2, 2022). "Climate activist Bill McKibben endorses Balint's bid for US House". VTDigger . Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  29. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mearhoff, Sarah (January 13, 2022). "Sen. Kesha Ram Hinsdale launches campaign for US House". VTDigger . Retrieved February 27, 2022.
  30. ↑ Field, Kathryn (May 23, 2022). "American Federation of Teachers endorses Becca Balint for US House". VTDigger . Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  31. 1 2 Field, Kathryn (May 17, 2022). "Vermont Building Trades Council endorses Becca Balint for US House". VTDigger . Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  32. 1 2 3 4 "Meet The Candidates".
  33. ↑ "Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC Endorses Becca Balint in VT-AL". June 22, 2022. Retrieved June 28, 2022.
  34. 1 2 3 "LPAC & Other National LGBTQ Organizations Endorse Becca Balint". LPAC . January 25, 2022. Retrieved February 27, 2022.
  35. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses 14 Pro-Equality Champions for U.S. House of Representatives". hrc.org. Human Rights Campaign. July 6, 2022. Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  36. ↑ "Becca Balint Earns LCV Action Fund Endorsement to Continue Legacy of Bold Climate Action in Congress". www.lcv.org. September 15, 2022.
  37. ↑ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Eight Candidates for Election to the U.S. House". NARAL Pro-Choice America. September 7, 2022. Retrieved December 31, 2022.
  38. ↑ Ackley, Kate; Akin, Stephanie; McIntire, Mary Ellen (June 30, 2022). "At the Races: Roe-d awakening". Roll Call . Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  39. ↑ Duffort, Lola (June 27, 2022). "Gray, Balint campaigns tussle over super PACs, though none have entered the race". VTDigger . Retrieved July 6, 2022.
  40. ↑ "Sierra Club Endorsements".
  41. ↑ Borghi, Brianna (June 4, 2022). "Madeleine Kunin endorses Molly Gray for Congress". WPTZ . Retrieved June 4, 2022.
  42. ↑ Mearhoff, Sarah (July 28, 2022). "Patrick Leahy votes for Molly Gray, backs her with $5,000 PAC donation". VT Digger. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
  43. ↑ "News roundup: Vt. hospital capacity improving, but blood supply at critical lows". Vermont Public Radio . February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 11, 2022.
  44. ↑ Johnson, A. Bryan (February 11, 2022). "Nina Turner Is Still Mad As Hell, and Running for Congress (Again)". The Nation . Retrieved February 11, 2022.
  45. ↑ Mays, Chris (April 11, 2022). "Outspoken war critic, solar specialist runs for Congress". Bennington Banner.
  46. 1 2 3 4 5 "General Election Candidates". sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved August 30, 2022.
  47. 1 2 "Ericka Redic launches candidacy for Congress". True North Reports. February 17, 2022.
  48. ↑ "Vermont's 2020 Primary Election Is Like No Other. Here's What You Need To Know". Vermont Public Radio . July 31, 2020. Retrieved September 17, 2020.
  49. ↑ "2022 Legislature Winding Down it's Work, Candidates for the November Election Making Moves". NFIB. April 18, 2022.
  50. ↑ Duffort, Lola; Mearhoff, Sarah (November 16, 2021). "Who will take Leahy's place in the Senate and why does everyone think it's Welch?". VTDigger. Archived from the original on November 17, 2021. No one has been explicit yet about their plans for the election in November 2022, save for those ruling out a run. ("No chance!" a spokesperson for Republican Gov. Phil Scott told a reporter on Monday.)
  51. ↑ McCallum, Kevin (June 1, 2022) [May 27, 2022]. "Buckle Up: Vermont's Robust August Primary Contests Take Shape". Seven Days . Burlington. Retrieved June 27, 2022.
  52. ↑ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1522463". docquery.fec.gov.
  53. ↑ "2022 House Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  54. ↑ "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 4, 2021.
  55. ↑ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 5, 2021. Retrieved October 5, 2021.
  56. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
  57. ↑ "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
  58. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. July 11, 2022. Retrieved July 11, 2022.
  59. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  60. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  61. ↑ "Election Results". Vermont Secretary of State.
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