2022 Hawaii gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Hawaii gubernatorial election
Flag of Hawaii.svg
←  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  →
Turnout48.4% Decrease2.svg
  Josh Green Official Photo 2022 (cropped) (cropped).jpg Duke Aiona.jpg
Nominee Josh Green Duke Aiona
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Sylvia Luke Seaula Tupa'i Jr.
Popular vote261,025152,237
Percentage63.2%36.8%
2022 Hawaii gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
HI Governor 2022.svg
Green:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Aiona:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No votes
Governor before election

David Ige
Democratic

Elected Governor

Josh Green
Democratic

The 2022 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Hawaii. Incumbent Democratic Governor David Ige was term-limited and ineligible to run for a third term. Incumbent lieutenant governor Josh Green was the Democratic nominee, and faced former lieutenant governor Duke Aiona, the Republican nominee. This marked the third time Aiona had been the Republican gubernatorial nominee, having previously run unsuccessfully in 2010 and 2014. Green won the election with 63.2% of the vote with Aiona receiving 36.8% of the vote. [1] [2]

Contents

Green's performance was the highest percentage of the vote ever received by any gubernatorial candidate in the state's history, surpassing the record from the previous election. Despite this, Aiona performed 3 points better and received 20,000 more raw votes than Andria Tupola did in 2018, likely because there were no third-party candidates in the 2022 race. Green was the first Hawaii governor born after Hawaii's statehood.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined
Endorsements
Kirk Caldwell (withdrew)
Individual
Vicky Cayetano
Organizations
  • Patsy T. Mink Foundation [16]
Josh Green
Labor unions
Publications
  • Honolulu Star-Advertiser Editorial Board [19]
Kai Kahele
Labor unions

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kirk
Caldwell		Vicky
Cayetano		Josh
Green		Kai
Kahele		Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 12–17, 2022317 (LV)± 5.6%–19%55%16%10%
MRG Research June 28–30, 2022782 (LV)± 4.0%–15%48%16%22%
May 4, 2022Caldwell withdraws from the race
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] February 8–9, 2022644 (LV)± 3.9%5%10%46%14%25%
–10%48%17%25%
Mason-Dixon January 24–28, 2022320 (LV)± 5.6%11%8%58%–23%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] November 5–6, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%7%14%51%–28%
–21%58%––

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Green--60-70% Green--40-50% 2022 Hawaii gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Green—60–70%
  Green—40–50%
Democratic primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Josh Green 158,161 62.91%
Democratic Vicky Cayetano 52,44720.86%
Democratic Kai Kahele 37,73815.01%
Democratic Van Tanabe1,2360.49%
Democratic Richard Kim9910.39%
Democratic David Bourgoin5900.23%
Democratic Clyde Lewman2490.10%
Total votes251,412 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrew
Declined

Endorsements

Keith Amemiya
Labor unions
Ikaika Anderson
Individuals
Labor unions
Sherry Menor-McNamara
Organizations
  • Japanese Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Hawaii [35]
Sylvia Luke
Labor unions
Organizations and professional associations
  • Americans for Democratic Action [35]
  • General Contractors Association of Hawai‘i [35]
  • Patsy T. Mink PAC [35]
Publications
  • Honolulu Star-Advertiser Editorial Board [38]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Keith
Amemiya		Ikaika
Anderson		Sylvia
Luke		Sherry
Menor-McNamara		Jill
Tokuda		Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 12–17, 2022317 (LV)± 5.6%19%18%21%4%–38%
MRG Research June 28–30, 2022782 (LV)± 4.0%10%14%20%7%–48%
April 27, 2022Tokuda withdraws from the race
Mason-Dixon January 24–28, 2022320 (LV)± 5.6%8%9%3%7%13%60%

Results

Results by county: Luke--<40% Anderson--<40% 2022 Hawaii lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary.svg
Results by county:
  Luke—<40%
  Anderson—<40%
Democratic primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Sylvia Luke 87,797 36.23%
Democratic Ikaika Anderson 67,46227.84%
Democratic Keith Amemiya 57,19923.60%
Democratic Sherry Menor-McNamara25,34910.46%
Democratic Sam Puletasi2,3280.96%
Democratic Daniel Cunningham2,2150.91%
Total votes242,350 100.0%

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined
Endorsements
Duke Aiona
Labor unions
  • State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers, police union [49]
Publications
  • Honolulu Star-Advertiser Editorial Board [19]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Duke
Aiona		Gary
Cordery		Lynn Barry
Mariano		Paul
Morgan		B.J.
Penn		Heidi Haunani
Tsuneyoshi		Undecided
Mason-Dixon July 12–17, 2022133 (LV)± 8.7%48%–––26%9%17%
MRG Research June 28–30, 2022269 (LV)± 6.0%27%7%3%1%24%9%29%

Results

Results by county: Aiona--50-60% Aiona--40-50% 2022 Hawaii gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Aiona—50–60%
  Aiona—40–50%
Republican primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Duke Aiona 37,608 49.57%
Republican B.J. Penn 19,81726.12%
Republican Gary Cordery8,25810.88%
Republican Heidi Haunani Tsuneyoshi7,2559.56%
Republican Lynn Barry Mariano9031.19%
Republican Paul Morgan7961.05%
Republican Keline Kahau4690.62%
Republican Walter Woods4380.58%
Republican Moses Paskowitz1890.25%
Republican George Hawat1400.18%
Total votes75,873 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee
  • Seaula Tupa'i Jr., pastor [5]
Eliminated in primary
  • Rob Burns, realtor
  • Tae Kim, candidate for Honolulu prosecutor in 2020 [5]

Results

Results by county: Tupai--60-70% Tupai--50-60% 2022 Hawaii lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary.svg
Results by county:
  Tupai—60–70%
  Tupai—50–60%
Republican primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Seaula Tupai Jr. 35,798 53.56%
Republican Rob Burns23,12134.60%
Republican Tae Kim7,91111.84%
Total votes66,830 100.0%

Nonpartisan primary

Under Hawaii law, a nonpartisan candidate must either receive at least ten percent of the vote for that office (32,729 votes for governor or 30,918 votes for lieutenant governor) or receive a vote "equal to or greater than the lowest vote received by the partisan candidate who was nominated" (37,608 votes for governor or 35,798 votes for lieutenant governor) to qualify for the general election ballot. [50] Because none of the nonpartisan candidates for governor or lieutenant governor met that threshold, no nonpartisan candidates for governor or lieutenant governor advanced to the general election.

Governor

Candidates

Eliminated in primary
  • Caleb Nazara, pastor
  • Keleionalani Taylor, activist

Results

Nonpartisan primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Nonpartisan Keleionalani Taylor75561.94%
Nonpartisan Caleb Nazara46438.06%
Total votes1,219 100.0%

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominee
  • Charles Keoho

Results

Nonpartisan primary results [21]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Nonpartisan Charles Keoho1,030100.0%
Total votes1,030 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [51] Solid DMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [52] Solid DMarch 4, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [53] Safe DJanuary 26, 2022
Politico [54] Solid DApril 1, 2022
RCP [55] Safe DJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News [56] Solid DMay 12, 2022
538 [57] Solid DJune 30, 2022
Elections Daily [58] Safe DNovember 7, 2022

Endorsements

Josh Green (D)
Organizations
Labor unions
Publications
  • Honolulu Star-Advertiser Editorial Board [19] (co-endorsed with Aiona)
Duke Aiona (R)
Labor unions
  • State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers [49]
Publications
  • Honolulu Star-Advertiser Editorial Board [19] (co-endorsed with Green)

Results

2022 Hawaii gubernatorial election [61]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic
261,025 63.16% +0.49%
Republican
152,23736.84%+3.14%
Total votes413,262 100.00%
Turnout 417,21548.44%–4.24
Registered electors 861,358
Democratic hold
By county
County Josh Green
Democratic 		Duke Aiona
Republican 		MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%
Hawaii [62] 42,15265.8421,87034.1620,28231.6864,022
Honolulu [63] 170,57562.36102,96837.6467,60724.72273,543
Kauai [64] 14,22759.639,63240.374,59519.2623,859
Maui [65] 33,93065.7917,64134.2116,28931.5851,571
Totals259,90163.21151,25836.79108,64326.42411,159

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 This poll was sponsored by 314 Action, which endorsed Josh Green

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References

  1. ↑ "Hawaii election results". The New York Times. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 14, 2022.
  2. ↑ Blaze Lovell (November 8, 2022). "Hawaii Governor: Josh Green Easily Defeats Duke Aiona". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved November 14, 2022.
  3. 1 2 Nagaoka, Ashley (August 15, 2019). "Believe it or not, race to replace Gov. Ige is already taking shape". Hawaii News Now . Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  4. 1 2 Blair, Chad (October 1, 2019). "Caldwell Schedules Campaign Fundraiser For Governor's Race". Honolulu Civil Beat . Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "2022 Office of Elections Filing Report". Hawaii Office of Elections. March 4, 2022. Retrieved March 11, 2022.
  6. ↑ Dayton, Kevin (July 15, 2021). "Former First Lady Vicky Cayetano Is Mulling A Run For Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat.
  7. ↑ "Former First Lady Vicky Cayetano Announces Run for Governor". Hawai'i Public Radio. August 31, 2021. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  8. ↑ "Vicky Cayetano launches Democratic gubernatorial campaign". news.yahoo.com. August 31, 2021. Retrieved September 10, 2021.
  9. ↑ McIntire, Mary Ellen (April 28, 2022). "Report: Hawaii's Kahele to run for governor instead of reelection". Roll Call . Retrieved May 2, 2022.
  10. ↑ Nakaso, Dan (May 7, 2022). "U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele announces bid for governor" . Retrieved May 7, 2022.
  11. ↑ Blair, Chad (May 4, 2022). "Kirk Caldwell Drops Out Of Race For Hawaii Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat . Retrieved May 4, 2022.
  12. ↑ "'Not my time': Former Mayor Kirk Caldwell drops out of race for governor". Hawaii News Now . May 4, 2022. Retrieved May 4, 2022.
  13. ↑ Wells, Dylan (December 22, 2020). "NEW: Former Rep. Colleen Hanabusa (D-HI 01) is not ruling out running for governor in 2022. Hanabusa left Congress in 2018 to run against incumbent Gov. David Ige (D), who cannot run in 2022 because of term limits. #HIGov #Hileg". National Journal. Retrieved December 22, 2020.
  14. ↑ Morales, Manolo (February 26, 2021). "Police Report Disputes Rep. Sharon Har's Statement about DUI Arrest". KHON2. Retrieved June 5, 2021.
  15. ↑ HPR News Staff (November 24, 2021). "Kauaʻi Mayor Derek Kawakami endorses Kirk Caldwell in governor's race".
  16. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Nakaso, Dan (July 4, 2022). "U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele gets key union backing, Lt. Gov. Josh Green adds to long list" . Retrieved July 16, 2022.
  17. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Nakaso, Dan (April 3, 2022). "Endorsements stacking up for Josh Green in Hawaii governor's race". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  18. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Dayton, Kevin (March 28, 2022). "Lt. Gov. Josh Green Is Racking Up Union Endorsements, Adding To His Momentum". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  19. 1 2 3 4 Honolulu Star-Advertiser Editorial Board (July 24, 2022). "Editorial: For governor's race, it's Josh Green and Duke Aiona".
  20. 1 2 "Congressman Kaialiʻi Kahele makes official announcement of run for Hawaiʻi Governor". www.mauinow.com. May 7, 2022. Retrieved May 14, 2022.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 "August 13, 2022 Primary Election - Statewide Summary" (PDF). State of Hawaii - Office of Elections.
  22. ↑ Blair, Chad (October 24, 2021). "Hawaii Rep. Sylvia Luke Plans To Run For Lieutenant Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat . Retrieved October 27, 2021.
  23. ↑ "State Rep. Sylvia Luke announces run for lieutenant governor". Hawaii News Now .
  24. ↑ Nakaso, Dan (November 7, 2021). "Keith Amemiya joins race for lieutenant governor". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved November 8, 2021.
  25. ↑ "Ikaika Anderson Launches Campaign for Hawaii Lt. Governor". October 12, 2021.
  26. ↑ Nakaso, Dan (November 3, 2021). "Chamber of Commerce Hawaii leader Sherry Menor-McNamara running for lieutenant governor". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  27. ↑ "Former State Senator Jill Tokuda seeking to be Hawaiʻi's next lieutenant governor". October 7, 2021.
  28. ↑ Nakaso, Dan (April 26, 2022). "Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda files to challenge Kai Kahele for congressional seat". Honolulu Star-Advertiser . Retrieved May 4, 2022.
  29. ↑ Richardson, Mahealani (April 27, 2022). "Mounting speculation about a Kahele run for governor triggers 'grand chess game'". Hawaii News Now . Retrieved May 4, 2022.
  30. ↑ "Sergio Alcubilla for Congress". Sergio Alcubilla for Congress.
  31. 1 2 3 "Chad Blair: Here's How Hawaii's Top 2022 Political Races Are Shaking Out". August 19, 2021.
  32. ↑ Nakaso, Dan (October 13, 2021). "Race expanding for Hawaii's next lieutenant governor". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved November 3, 2021.
  33. ↑ "Lee Cataluna: Candidates for LG May Find the Game Has Changed". October 13, 2021.
  34. 1 2 3 4 Ancheta, Dillon (October 12, 2021). "Former City Council chair criticized by constituent at Lt. Gov. campaign launch". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved December 5, 2021.
  35. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Nakaso, Dan (July 12, 2022). "Ikaika Anderson receives key endorsement, Sylvia Luke has most in race for lieutenant governor" . Retrieved July 16, 2022.
  36. ↑ "Hawaii police officers' union endorses former councilman in Lt. Gov. race". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  37. ↑ "HGEA endorses Sylvia Luke for lieutenant governor". Hawaii News Now. March 22, 2022. Retrieved June 1, 2022.
  38. ↑ Honolulu Star-Advertiser Editorial Board (July 24, 2022). "Editorial: For lieutenant governor's race, it's Sylvia Luke". Honolulu Star-Advertiser.
  39. ↑ "Former Lt. Gov. James 'Duke' Aiona files papers to run for governor". Hawaii News Now. June 7, 2022.
  40. ↑ "'We lack a moral compass': Duke Aiona finally explains his decision to join the race for governor". Hawaii News Now. June 15, 2022.
  41. ↑ "Vote Gary Cordery for Governor - Gary Cordery For Governor". March 7, 2022.
  42. ↑ "Hawaii veteran joins governor's race on Republican ticket". February 2022.
  43. ↑ "Paul Morgan To Officially Announce His Candidacy for Hawai'i Governor" . Retrieved September 9, 2021.
  44. ↑ "Paul Morgan For Governor" . Retrieved September 9, 2021.
  45. ↑ "Wanting to eliminate mandates, UFC fighter BJ Penn eyes run for governor". October 5, 2021.
  46. ↑ "City Councilmember Heidi Tsuneyoshi announces run for governor". February 23, 2022.
  47. ↑ Richardson, Mahealani (January 6, 2022). "Businessman's potential gubernatorial run could shake up general election race". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved January 23, 2022.
  48. ↑ "City Council Member Andria Tupola Will Not Run for Governor Next Year". August 5, 2021.
  49. 1 2 Dan Nakaso (July 20, 2022). "Hawaii police union endorses Aiona for governor".
  50. ↑ "NONPARTISAN CANDIDATES IN PARTISAN CONTESTS". Office of Elections. State of Hawaii.
  51. ↑ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
  52. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved February 19, 2021.
  53. ↑ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
  54. ↑ "Hawaii Governor Race 2022". Politico . April 1, 2022.
  55. ↑ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
  56. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  57. ↑ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  58. ↑ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
  59. ↑ "Josh Green's Ratings and Endorsements - Vote Smart". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 5, 2022.
  60. ↑ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". Education Votes. Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  61. ↑ "GENERAL ELECTION 2022 - Statewide - November 8, 2022" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  62. ↑ "GENERAL ELECTION 2022 - County of Hawaii - November 8, 2022" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 17, 2022. Retrieved November 17, 2022.
  63. ↑ "GENERAL ELECTION 2022 - City and County of Honolulu - November 8, 2022" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 16, 2022. Retrieved November 17, 2022.
  64. ↑ "GENERAL ELECTION 2022 - County of Kauai - November 8, 2022" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 17, 2022.
  65. ↑ "GENERAL ELECTION 2022 - County of Maui - November 8, 2022" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 17, 2022.
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