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Fontes: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Finchem: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Arizona |
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The 2022 Arizona Secretary of State election was held on Tuesday, November 8, to elect the next Secretary of State of Arizona. Incumbent Secretary of State Katie Hobbs declined to run for a second term, to instead run for governor. [1] Primary elections were held on August 2, 2022. [2] Democrat and former Maricopa County recorder Adrian Fontes defeated Republican representative Mark Finchem by 4.8%.
Finchem was backed by the America First Secretary of State Coalition, [3] [4] a Republican group supporting Secretary of State candidates who championed the far-right conspiracy theory that falsely claimed that Donald Trump won the 2020 United States presidential election. Due to a combination of Arizona's role as a swing state in the previous presidential election, Finchem's views, and the role of the Secretary of State in certifying elections, the race took upon an uncharacteristically high national profile.
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Democratic |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Reginald Bolding | Adrian Fontes | |||||
1 | Apr. 25, 2022 | KAET | Ted Simons | YouTube | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Reginald Bolding | Adrian Fontes | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lake Research Partners (D) [upper-alpha 1] | July 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 30% | 28% |
OH Predictive Insights (D) [upper-alpha 2] | July 2022 | 537 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 29% | 44% | 27% |
Lake Research Partners (D) [upper-alpha 1] | July 2022 | – (LV) | – | 29% | 35% | 36% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 3] | July 8–9, 2022 | 740 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 18% | 32% | 51% |
Lake Research Partners (D) [upper-alpha 1] | May 2022 | – (LV) | – | 14% | 35% | 51% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 283 (RV) | ± 5.8% | 22% | 17% | 61% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Adrian Fontes | 302,681 | 52.50% | |
Democratic | Reginald Bolding | 273,815 | 47.50% | |
Total votes | 576,496 | 100.0% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||||
Shawnna Bolick | Mark Finchem | Beau Lane | Michelle Ugenti-Rita | |||||
1 | Jun. 25, 2022 | KAET | Ted Simons | YouTube | P | A | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Shawnna Bolick | Mark Finchem | Beau Lane | Michelle Ugenti-Rita | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rasmussen Reports | July 27–28, 2022 | 710 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 11% | 27% | 16% | 12% | 10% | 25% |
OH Predictive Insights | July 27, 2022 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 8% | 32% | 11% | 9% | – | 41% |
OH Predictive Insights | June 30 – July 2, 2022 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 3% | 14% | 5% | 6% | – | 72% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 4–5, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 3% | 13% | 2% | 9% | – | 74% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 311 (RV) | ± 5.6% | 8% | 11% | – | 7% | – | 74% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mark Finchem | Kelly Townsend | Michelle Ugenti-Rita | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HighGround Public Affairs (R) | May 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 5% | 12% | 4% | 8% [lower-alpha 2] | 75% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mark Finchem | 329,884 | 42.56% | |
Republican | Beau Lane | 181,058 | 23.36% | |
Republican | Shawnna Bolick | 149,779 | 19.32% | |
Republican | Michelle Ugenti-Rita | 114,391 | 14.76% | |
Total votes | 775,101 | 100.0% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Adrian Fontes | Mark Finchem | |||||
1 | Sep. 22, 2022 | KAET | Ted Simons | YouTube | P | P |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Sabato's Crystal Ball [19] | Tossup | November 3, 2022 |
Elections Daily [20] | Lean D | November 7, 2022 |
![]() | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Adrian Fontes (D) | Mark Finchem (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital (R) | November 4–6, 2022 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 48% | 1% [lower-alpha 3] | 4% |
KAConsulting (R) [upper-alpha 4] | November 2–3, 2022 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | – | 9% |
HighGround Inc. | November 1–2, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 42% | 2% [lower-alpha 4] | 11% |
Big Data Poll (R) | October 31 – November 2, 2022 | 1,501 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 24–26, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 42% | – | 11% |
Siena College/NYT | October 24–26, 2022 | 604 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 40% | – | 13% |
BSP Research/Shaw & Co. [upper-alpha 5] | October 19–26, 2022 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 5% [lower-alpha 5] | 20% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [upper-alpha 6] | October 14–18, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | 1% [lower-alpha 6] | 10% |
HighGround Inc. | October 12–13, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 42% | 1% [lower-alpha 7] | 15% |
CNN/SSRS | September 26 – October 2, 2022 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | 10% [lower-alpha 8] | – |
795 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 49% | 6% [lower-alpha 9] | 1% | ||
SurveyUSA (D) [upper-alpha 7] | September 27–30, 2022 | 563 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 44% | 41% | – | 15% |
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 8] | September 13–20, 2022 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 14–17, 2022 | 1080 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 41% | 48% | – | 11% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 6–9, 2022 | 654 (LV) | ± 3.83% | 35% | 40% | – | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Katie Hobbs (D) | Michelle Ugenti-Rita (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | March 8–12, 2021 | 690 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 36% | 30% | 35% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat | Generic Republican | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | September 7–12, 2021 | 882 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 34% | 37% | 28% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Adrian Fontes | 1,320,619 | 52.38% | +1.95% | |
Republican | Mark Finchem | 1,200,411 | 47.62% | −1.94% | |
Total votes | 2,521,030 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
County | Adrian Fontes Democratic | Mark Finchem Republican | Write-in | Margin | Total votes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Apache | 17,476 | 66.57 | 8,776 | 33.43 | 5 | 0.02 | 8,700 | 33.14 | 26,614 |
Cochise | 19,402 | 41.97 | 26,827 | 58.03 | 48 | 0.10 | -7,425 | -16.06 | 46,666 |
Coconino | 34,482 | 64.15 | 19,270 | 35.85 | 40 | 0.07 | 14,212 | 28.30 | 54,727 |
Gila | 8,176 | 36.70 | 14,103 | 63.30 | 13 | 0.06 | -5,927 | -26.6 | 22,450 |
Graham | 3,246 | 30.27 | 7,478 | 69.73 | 0 | 0.00 | -4,232 | -39.46 | 10,847 |
Greenlee | 978 | 40.63 | 1,429 | 59.37 | 0 | 0.00 | -451 | -18.74 | 2,446 |
La Paz | 1,736 | 31.89 | 3,708 | 68.11 | 6 | 0.11 | -1,972 | -36.22 | 5,499 |
Maricopa | 813,492 | 53.67 | 702,376 | 46.33 | 469 | 0.03 | 111,116 | 7.34 | 1,543,535 |
Mohave | 20,901 | 26.05 | 59,320 | 73.95 | 16 | 0.02 | -38,419 | -47.90 | 81,510 |
Navajo | 18,701 | 46.77 | 21,280 | 53.23 | 13 | 0.03 | -2,579 | -6.46 | 40,411 |
Pima | 244,349 | 61.86 | 150,680 | 38.14 | 121 | 0.03 | 93,669 | 23.72 | 398,553 |
Pinal | 62,618 | 44.00 | 79,696 | 56.00 | 34 | 0.02 | -17,078 | -12.00 | 143,826 |
Santa Cruz | 9,181 | 70.14 | 3,909 | 29.86 | 4 | 0.03 | 5,272 | 40.28 | 13,099 |
Yavapai | 45,876 | 37.59 | 76,162 | 62.41 | 43 | 0.03 | -30,286 | -24.82 | 123,191 |
Yuma | 20,005 | 44.06 | 25,397 | 55.94 | 8 | 0.02 | -5,392 | -11.88 | 46,111 |
Totals | 1,320,619 | 52.38 | 1,200,411 | 47.62 | 820 | 0.03 | 17,117 | 0.67 | 2,559,485 |
Fontes won five out of nine congressional districts, including two that elected Republicans. [29]
District | Fontes | Finchem | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 54.0% | 46.0% | David Schweikert |
2nd | 47.2% | 52.8% | Tom O'Halleran (117th Congress) |
Eli Crane (118th Congress) | |||
3rd | 77.7% | 22.3% | Ruben Gallego |
4th | 58.7% | 41.3% | Greg Stanton |
5th | 45.2% | 54.8% | Andy Biggs |
6th | 53.6% | 46.4% | Ann Kirkpatrick (117th Congress) |
Juan Ciscomani (118th Congress) | |||
7th | 68.2% | 31.8% | Raúl Grijalva |
8th | 47.3% | 52.7% | Debbie Lesko |
9th | 38.3% | 61.7% | Paul Gosar |
In December 2022, Mark Finchem filed a lawsuit petitioning for the election to be "nullified and redone"; the lawsuit was dismissed with prejudice that month by Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Melissa Julian, confirming Adrian Fontes' victory in the election. [30] [31] [32] While Finchem alleged that voting machines in Arizona were not properly certified, the judge rejected this, because the Election Assistance Commission did not vote to revoke certification, which is the procedure under federal law, so the judge rejected the merits of Finchem's arguments on voting machines certification. [32] [33] The judge also rejected the merits of Finchem's arguments on voting software certification. [33] Next, regarding Finchem's issues with tabulating machines and a website listing for an estimated number of votes, the judge concluded that Finchem "does not allege that any of the votes cast were actually illegal" and does not allege that any legal vote was not counted, but only alleged "suspicions that some votes may not have been counted", so the judge rejected this argument as insufficient to overturn an election. [32] [34]
Then, the judge rejected Finchem's allegations of "misconduct" by Secretary of State Katie Hobbs as insufficient. [32] Finchem argued that Hobbs should have recused after her gubernatorial opponent Kari Lake "perceived a conflict of interest", with the judge responding that this were "not well-pled facts; they are legal conclusions masquerading as alleged facts", and legal conclusions unsupported by Arizona law. [33] Regarding Hobbs' actions in telling Mohave County and Cochise County to certify their election by the November 28 deadline, the judge stated that it was Hobbs' responsibility "to ensure the canvass and certification of a general election is completed within the statutorily prescribed timeframes", and that it was not misconduct for her "to communicate with other governing bodies to ensure" thus. [34] Finally, the judge rejected Finchem's protest over his allegation that Twitter suspended his account in October 2022 as irrelevant because Twitter is not an "election official". [34]
Finchem appealed the rejection of his election challenge, then abandoned the appeal in July 2023, with his lawyer citing other failed 2022 election challenging lawsuits in Arizona. [35]
Kari Lake Halperin is an American former television news anchor. A member of the Republican Party, she is a candidate in the 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona. She was also the Republican nominee in the 2022 Arizona gubernatorial election.
Karen Fann is a former Republican member of the Arizona Senate, representing Arizona Legislative District 1. Fann became President of the Arizona Senate in 2019, and served until 2023.
Kathleen Marie Hobbs is an American politician and social worker serving since 2023 as the 24th governor of Arizona. Hobbs is the first social worker to be elected governor of a U.S. state and is Arizona's fifth female governor. A member of the Democratic Party, she was secretary of state of Arizona from 2019 to 2023 and a member of the Arizona State Legislature from 2011 to 2019.
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