2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	78.49% (of registered voters) 1.41 pp
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida California Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz Projected electoral vote 11 0 Popular vote 1,770,242 1,582,860 Percentage 52.22% 46.69%
County results Congressional district results Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80% Harris   50–60%   60–70%
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1] Arizona was considered a crucial swing state in 2024.

The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump. ^[2] Formerly a moderately red state in the American Southwest, Trump won Arizona in 2016 by 3.5%, a major drop in margin of Republican victory in the traditional GOP stronghold compared to previous cycles, despite an overall more favorable year for Republicans than the previous two presidential elections. Biden narrowly won in Arizona in 2020 by 0.3%. Due to the diversification of Maricopa County, a traditionally Republican stronghold that holds 61.6% of the state's population, the state is now considered a purple state. ^{[3] [4]} Robert F. Kennedy Jr. had gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, but his petition was eventually withdrawn. ^{[5] [6]}

Arizona was the final state to be called in the election, with Donald Trump winning by 5.5%, surpassing the margins predicted by most polls. ^[7] This was the largest margin of victory since 2012 for a Republican presidential candidate, as well as the first time since 2012 that a presidential candidate won the state with an absolute majority of the vote. It was Trump's largest margin of victory in his sweep of the seven swing states, and Trump's strongest performance in a state won by Biden in 2020.

Background

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden ran for re-election to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee. ^[8] However, following what was widely viewed as a poor performance in the June 2024 presidential debate and amid increasing age and health concerns from within his party, he withdrew from the race on July 21 and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris (from neighboring California), who launched her presidential campaign the same day. ^[9]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. ^[10]

Arizona Democratic primary, March 19, 2024 ^[11]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	375,110	89.3%	72		72
Marianne Williamson	15,844	3.8%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	11,611	2.8%
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn)	6,128	1.5%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)	4,976	1.2%
Jason Palmer	3,752	0.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)	2,753	0.7%
Total:	420,174	100.0%	72	13	85

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio. ^[10]

Arizona Republican primary, March 19, 2024 ^[12]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	492,299	78.84%	43		43
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	110,966	17.77%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	10,131	1.62%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	5,078	0.81%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	2,479	0.40%
David Stuckenberg	1,367	0.22%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	891	0.14%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)	714	0.11%
John Anthony Castro	505	0.08%
Total:	624,430	100.00%	43		43

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced an unsuccessful resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine". ^{[13] [14]}

General election

Candidates

The following candidates have qualified and were on the presidential general election ballot in Arizona. ^[15]

• Kamala Harris — Democratic
• Donald Trump — Republican
• Chase Oliver — Libertarian
• Jill Stein — Green
• President R Boddie — Nonpartisan (Write-in)
• Dawanda Shelton — Independent (Write-in)
• Joel Skousen — Constitution Party (Write-in)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [16]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17]	Lean R (flip)	November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [18]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
CNN [19]	Tossup	November 4, 2024
CNalysis [20]	Tilt R (flip)	November 4, 2024
The Economist [21]	Lean R (flip)	November 4, 2024
538 [22]	Lean R (flip)	November 4, 2024
Inside Elections [23]	Tossup	November 3, 2024
NBC News [24]	Tossup	November 4, 2024

Election rule changes

Mi Familia Vota led a coalition of civil rights organizations with the US Department of Justice to sue Arizona over a 2022 law passed by its GOP legislature that tried to bar voters who had not provided proof of citizenship when they registered. ^[25] In Republican National Committee v. Mi Familia Vota, the Supreme Court ruled that those already registered voters could still vote, but that new voters had to provide proof of citizenship if registering with the state of Arizona's voter registration form. Voters using the national voter registration form will still be registered and do not have to provide proof of citizenship. ^[26]

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided [a]	Margin
270ToWin [27]	October 22 – November 4, 2024	November 5, 2024	46.8%	48.4%	4.8%	Trump +1.6%
538 [28]	through November 4, 2024	November 5, 2024	46.8%	48.9%	4.3%	Trump +2.1%
Silver Bulletin [29]	through November 4, 2024	November 5, 2024	46.9%	49.3%	3.8%	Trump +2.4%
The Hill/DDHQ [30]	through November 4, 2024	November 5, 2024	47.3%	49.9%	2.8%	Trump +2.6%
Average			47.0%	49.1%	3.9%	Trump +2.1%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
HarrisX [31]	November 3–5, 2024	1,636 (RV)	± 2.4%	46%	47%	7%
				49% [c]	51%	–
		1,468 (LV)		47%	49%	4%
				49% [c]	51%	–
AtlasIntel [32]	November 3–4, 2024	875 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	52%	1%
Victory Insights [33]	November 2–3, 2024	750 (LV)	–	48%	49%	3% [d]
Trafalgar Group (R) [34]	November 1–3, 2024	1,090 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	49%	4% [e]
Patriot Polling [35]	November 1–3, 2024	801 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	51%	1%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [36]	November 1–2, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	49%	5% [d]
AtlasIntel [37]	November 1–2, 2024	967 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	52%	2%
Emerson College [38]	October 30 – November 2, 2024	900 (LV)	± 3.3%	48%	50%	2% [f]
				48% [c]	51%	1% [f]
New York Times/Siena College [39]	October 25 – November 2, 2024	1,025 (RV)	± 3.5%	44%	48%	8%
		1,025 (LV)		45%	49%	6%
ActiVote [40]	October 8 – November 1, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	51%	–
SoCal Strategies (R) [41] [A]	October 30–31, 2024	750 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	50%	1%
AtlasIntel [42]	October 30–31, 2024	1,005 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	51%	2%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [43]	October 29–31, 2024	800 (LV)	–	47%	50%	3%
YouGov [44] [B]	October 25–31, 2024	880 (RV)	± 4.4%	49%	50%	1%
		856 (LV)		49%	50%	1%
Morning Consult [45]	October 21−30, 2024	666 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	48%	4%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [46] [C]	October 25–29, 2024	803 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6% [d]
AtlasIntel [47]	October 25–29, 2024	1,458 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	51%	2%
Mitchell Research & Communications [48]	October 28, 2024	610 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	50%	2%
RABA Research [49]	October 25–27, 2024	589 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	43%	12% [g]
Trafalgar Group (R) [50]	October 24–26, 2024	1,094 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	48%	6% [d]
CES/YouGov [51]	October 1–25, 2024	2,077 (A)	–	49%	49%	2%
		2,066 (LV)		47%	51%	2%
Marist College [52]	October 17–22, 2024	1,329 (RV)	± 3.5%	49%	49%	2% [h]
		1,193 (LV)	± 3.7%	49%	50%	1% [h]
InsiderAdvantage (R) [53]	October 20–21, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	50%	3% [e]
HighGround [54]	October 19–20, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	46%	47%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [55]	October 16–20, 2024	915 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	49%	2%
		861 (LV)		49%	49%	2%
University of Arizona/Truedot [56]	October 12–20, 2024	846 (RV)	± 3.4%	46%	45%	9% [i]
AtlasIntel [57]	October 12–17, 2024	1,440 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	49%	2%
CBS News/YouGov [58]	October 11−16, 2024	1,435 (LV)	± 3.3%	48%	51%	1%
Morning Consult [45]	October 6−15, 2024	653 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	48%	3%
Washington Post/Schar School [59]	September 30 – October 15, 2024	580 (RV)	± 5.0%	44%	50%	6%
		580 (LV)		46%	49%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R) [60]	October 10–13, 2024	1,090 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	48%	6% [j]
New York Times/Siena College [61]	October 7–10, 2024	808 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	51%	4%
		808 (LV)		46%	51%	3%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R) [62] [D]	October 6–9, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	49%	5%
Emerson College [63]	October 5–8, 2024	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4% [f]
				48% [c]	51%	1% [f]
Wall Street Journal [64]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	48%	46%	6%
ActiVote [65]	September 6 – October 8, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	51%	–
SoCal Strategies (R) [66] [A]	October 5–7, 2024	735 (LV)	–	49%	48%	3%
RMG Research [67] [E]	September 30 – October 2, 2024	783 (LV)	± 3.5%	46%	50%	4% [k]
				46%	50%	4%
OnMessage Inc. (R) [68] [F]	September 24 – October 2, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	45%	47%	8%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [69] [G]	September 24 – October 1, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	50%	2% [e]
InsiderAdvantage (R) [70]	September 29–30, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	1% [e]
HighGround [71] [H]	September 26–29, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	46%	6%
National Research [72] [I]	September 25–29, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	47%	5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R) [73] [J]	September 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	47%	5%
Emerson College [74] [K]	September 27–28, 2024	920 (LV)	± 3.2%	48%	50%	3% [f]
				48% [c]	52%	–
AtlasIntel [75]	September 20–25, 2024	946 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [76]	September 19–25, 2024	409 (LV)	–	50%	48%	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [77]	September 19–25, 2024	977 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	47%	3%
		926 (LV)		50%	47%	3%
Fox News [78]	September 20−24, 2024	1,021 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	50%	2%
		764 (LV)	± 3.5%	48%	51%	1%
Marist College [79]	September 19−24, 2024	1,416 (RV)	± 3.6%	48%	50%	2% [h]
		1,264 (LV)	± 3.8%	49%	50%	1% [h]
Rasmussen Reports (R) [80] [C]	September 19–22, 2024	1,030 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4% [d]
New York Times/Siena College [81]	September 17–21, 2024	713 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	49%	6%
		713 (LV)		45%	50%	5%
Emerson College [82]	September 15–18, 2024	868 (LV)	± 3.3%	48%	49%	3% [l]
				49% [c]	50%	1% [l]
Morning Consult [45]	September 9−18, 2024	862 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R) [83]	September 11–12, 2024	1,088 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	47%	7% [j]
Data Orbital [84] [L]	September 7–9, 2024	550 (LV)	± 2.9%	46%	46%	8%
Morning Consult [45]	August 30 – September 8, 2024	901 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	4%
TIPP Insights [85] [M]	September 3–5, 2024	1,015 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	46%	8%
		949 (LV)		47%	47%	6%
Patriot Polling [86]	September 1–3, 2024	804 (RV)	–	47%	49%	4%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [87]	August 29–31, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	49%	3%
University of Arizona/Truedot [88]	August 28–31, 2024	1,155 (RV)	–	42%	46%	12% [m]
Emerson College [89]	August 25–28, 2024	720 (LV)	± 3.6%	47%	50%	7%
				48% [c]	51%	1% [f]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [90]	August 23–26, 2024	776 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	48%	4%
		758 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	4%
Fox News [91]	August 23–26, 2024	1,014 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	49%	1%
Spry Strategies (R) [92] [N]	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	49%	3%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [93] [O]	August 13–17, 2024	1,187 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	47%	8%
Noble Predictive Insights [94]	August 12–16, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
Focaldata [95]	August 6–16, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	49%	51%	–
Strategies 360 [96]	August 7–14, 2024	400 (RV)	± 4.9%	47%	46%	7%
New York Times/Siena College [97]	August 8–15, 2024	677 (RV)	± 4.4%	49%	45%	7%
		677 (LV)		50%	45%	5%
Trafalgar Group (R) [98]	August 6–8, 2024	1,092 (LV)	± 2.9%	47%	48%	5%
Navigator Research (D) [99]	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	49%	5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [100]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	435 (LV)	–	48%	46%	6%
HighGround [101]	July 30 – August 5, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	44%	42%	14% [n]
Public Policy Polling (D) [102] [P]	July 29–30, 2024	618 (RV)	± 3.9%	47%	49%	4%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [103] [Q]	July 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	43%	48%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [104]	July 24–28, 2024	804 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	47%	4%
Emerson College [105]	July 22–23, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.4%	44%	49%	7%
				47% [c]	53%	–
	July 21, 2024	Kamala Harris declares her candidacy.
InsiderAdvantage (R) [106]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	48%	10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [107] [P]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	44%	52%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [108]	May 7–13, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	51%	7%
Emerson College [109]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	48%	12%
New York Times/Siena College [110]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	43%	48%	9%
		603 (LV)		43%	48%	9%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Jill Stein Green	Cornel West Independent	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Others/ Undecided [o]	Margin
Race to the WH [111]	through October 10, 2024	October 15, 2024	46.4%	48.8%	1.0%	—	0.8%	3.0%	Trump +2.4%
270toWin [112]	October 2 – 12, 2024	October 12, 2024	47.4%	47.6%	1.0%	0.0%	0.5%	3.5%	Trump +0.2%
Average			46.9%	48.1%	1.0%	0.0%	0.8%	3.2%	Trump +1.2%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
HarrisX [31]	November 3–5, 2024	1,636 (RV)	± 2.4%	44%	47%	1%	1%	–	7%
				46% [c]	50%	2%	2%	–	–
		1,468 (LV)		46%	49%	1%	1%	–	3%
				47% [c]	50%	2%	1%	–	–
AtlasIntel [32]	November 3–4, 2024	875 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	51%	–	1%	0%	2%
AtlasIntel [37]	November 1–2, 2024	967 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	52%	–	1%	1%	1%
New York Times/Siena College [39]	October 25 – November 2, 2024	1,025 (RV)	± 3.5%	42%	47%	–	3%	2%	6%
		1,025 (LV)		44%	48%	–	2%	1%	5%
Focaldata [113]	October 3 – November 1, 2024	1,779 (LV)	–	48%	49%	–	1%	1%	1%
		1,603 (RV)	± 2.3%	49%	47%	–	2%	1%	1%
		1,779 (A)	–	49%	47%	–	2%	1%	1%
AtlasIntel [42]	October 30–31, 2024	1,005 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	51%	–	1%	1%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [114]	October 28–31, 2024	652 (LV)	–	47%	48%	–	1%	1%	3%
YouGov [44] [B]	October 25–31, 2024	880 (RV)	± 4.4%	47%	48%	0%	1%	–	4%
		856 (LV)		48%	48%	0%	0%	–	4%
Noble Predictive Insights [115]	October 28–30, 2024	775 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	48%	–	2%	0%	3%
Data for Progress (D) [116]	October 25–30, 2024	1,079 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	48%	–	1%	0%	4%
AtlasIntel [47]	October 25–29, 2024	1,458 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	51%	–	1%	0%	2%
Mitchell Research & Communications [48]	October 28, 2024	610 (LV)	± 4.0%	48%	50%	–	0%	1%	1%
Data Orbital [117]	October 26–28, 2024	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	42%	50%	–	1%	1%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [118]	October 25–27, 2024	901 (LV)	–	47%	49%	–	1%	1%	2%
J.L. Partners [119]	October 24–26, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	49%	–	0%	1%	2% [d]
CNN/SSRS [120]	October 21–26, 2024	781 (LV)	± 4.4%	48%	47%	–	1%	2%	2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [121]	October 20–22, 2024	710 (LV)	–	46%	48%	–	1%	1%	4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [55]	October 16–20, 2024	915 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	48%	–	1%	2%	1%
		861 (LV)		48%	48%	–	1%	2%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [122]	October 16–18, 2024	691 (LV)	–	46%	49%	–	1%	1%	3%
AtlasIntel [57]	October 12–17, 2024	1,440 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	49%	–	1%	0%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [123]	October 12–14, 2024	1,141 (LV)	–	46%	48%	–	1%	1%	4%
New York Times/Siena College [61]	October 7–10, 2024	808 (RV)	± 4.0%	44%	49%	–	2%	1%	4%
		808 (LV)		45%	50%	–	1%	0%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [124]	September 27 – October 2, 2024	555 (LV)	–	47%	48%	–	1%	1%	3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [69] [R]	September 24 – October 1, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	47%	49%	–	1%	0%	3%
AtlasIntel [75]	September 20–25, 2024	946 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	50%	–	0%	–	1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [76]	September 19–25, 2024	409 (LV)	–	50%	47%	–	1%	–	2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [77]	September 19–25, 2024	977 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	46%	–	1%	2%	2%
		926 (LV)		49%	46%	–	1%	2%	2%
Fox News [78]	September 20−24, 2024	1,021 (RV)	± 3.0%	47%	49%	1%	1%	2%	−
		764 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	50%	0%	1%	2%	−
Suffolk University/USA Today [125]	September 19−24, 2024	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	–	1%	1%	8%
New York Times/Siena College [81]	September 17–21, 2024	713 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	47%	–	2%	3%	6%
		713 (LV)		43%	48%	–	2%	2%	5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [126]	September 16–19, 2024	789 (LV)	–	47%	47%	–	1%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [127]	September 6–9, 2024	765 (LV)	–	46%	47%	–	1%	1%	5%
TIPP Insights [85] [M]	September 3–5, 2024	1,015 (RV)	± 3.2%	46%	46%	1%	1%	–	6%
		949 (LV)		48%	48%	1%	1%	–	2%
YouGov [128] [B]	August 23 – September 3, 2024	900 (RV)	± 4.2%	45%	47%	1%	1%	–	6% [d]
CNN/SSRS [129]	August 23–29, 2024	682 (LV)	± 4.7%	44%	49%	–	2%	1%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [130]	August 25–28, 2024	530 (LV)	–	45%	46%	–	1%	1%	7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [90]	August 23–26, 2024	776 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	47%	–	0%	2%	2%
		758 (RV)	± 3.0%	49%	47%	–	0%	2%	2%
Fox News [91]	August 23–26, 2024	1,014 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	47%	1%	1%	2%	1%

Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
Wall Street Journal [64]	September 28 – October 8, 2024	600 (RV)	± 5.0%	47%	45%	0%	0%	1%	1%	6%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R) [73] [J]	September 23–29, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	47%	47%	0%	0%	2%	1%	3%
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Spry Strategies (R) [92]	August 14–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	46%	46%	2%	–	1%	–	5%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [93] [O]	August 13–17, 2024	1,187 (LV)	–	44%	45%	7%	1%	0%	–	3%
Focaldata [95]	August 6–16, 2024	702 (LV)	± 3.7%	45%	46%	7%	–	0%	0%	2%
		702 (RV)		45%	45%	9%	–	0%	0%	1%
		702 (A)		42%	46%	9%	–	0%	0%	3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [131]	August 12–15, 2024	592 (LV)	–	43%	44%	5%	–	1%	1%	6%
New York Times/Siena College [97]	August 8–15, 2024	677 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	42%	6%	0%	1%	2%	4%
		677 (LV)		47%	43%	5%	0%	0%	1%	4%
Navigator Research (D) [99]	July 31 – August 8, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	45%	46%	5%	0%	0%	0%	4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [100]	July 26 – August 8, 2024	435 (LV)	–	46%	42%	7%	1%	0%	4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [132]	July 31 – August 3, 2024	567 (LV)	–	44%	43%	4%	–	0%	0%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [104]	July 24–28, 2024	804 (RV)	± 3.0%	48%	44%	5%	–	0%	2%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [133]	July 22–24, 2024	510 (LV)	–	43%	46%	4%	–	0%	1%	6%
Emerson College [105]	July 22–23, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.4%	40%	48%	5%	1%	1%	1%	4%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Public Policy Polling (D) [134] [S]	July 17–20, 2024	738 (RV)	± 3.6%	40%	46%	7%	1%	6%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
Peak Insights (R) [135] [T]	July 31 – August 5, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	44%	11%	3%
Iron Light Intelligence (R) [136] [U]	July 29 – August 5, 2024	600 (LV)	–	43%	43%	7%	7%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D) [134] [S]	July 17–20, 2024	738 (RV)	± 3.6%	44%	50%	6%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [106]	July 15–16, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	44%	49%	7%
Emerson College [137] [V]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	47%	13%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [138] [W]	July 5–12, 2024	1,101 (LV)	± 3.0%	41%	50%	9%
Public Policy Polling (D) [107] [P]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	43%	51%	6%
Echelon Insights [139] [X]	July 1–8, 2024	601 (LV)	± 5.0%	44%	48%	8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [140]	July 1–5, 2024	781 (RV)	± 4.0%	45%	48%	7%
Emerson College [141] [V]	June 30 – July 2, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
Remington Research Group (R) [142]	June 29 – July 1, 2024	638 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	49%	9%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [143] [M]	June 17–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	48%	10%
Emerson College [144]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	47%	10%
				48% [c]	52%	–
Rasmussen Reports (R) [145]	June 11–13, 2024	750 (RV)	± 4.0%	40%	47%	13%
Fox News [146]	June 1–4, 2024	1,095 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	51%	3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [147] [Y]	May 28 – June 4, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	44%	50%	6%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [148]	May 19–21, 2024	609 (RV)	± 4.0%	41%	41%	18%
		501 (LV)		45%	43%	12%
CBS News/YouGov [149]	May 10–16, 2024	1,214 (RV)	± 3.5%	47%	52%	1%
Prime Group [150] [Z]	May 9–16, 2024	490 (RV)	–	49%	51%	–
Noble Predictive Insights [151]	May 7–14, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	44%	15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [108]	May 7–13, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	49%	7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [152]	May 6–13, 2024	527 (LV)	± 4.3%	44%	45%	11%
New York Times/Siena College [153]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	626 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	49%	9%
		626 (LV)		43%	49%	8%
Emerson College [154]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	48%	8%
				48% [c]	52%	–
Kaplan Strategies [155]	April 20–21, 2024	874 (RV)	± 3.3%	43%	47%	10%
John Zogby Strategies [156] [AA]	April 13–21, 2024	630 (LV)	–	40%	51%	9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [157]	April 8–15, 2024	801 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	49%	9%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [158] [D]	April 7–11, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	44%	48%	8%
The Bullfinch Group [159] [AB]	March 29 – April 3, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	44%	18% [p]
RABA Research [160]	March 28–31, 2024	503 (RV)	± 4.4%	36%	39%	25% [q]
Wall Street Journal [161]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	42%	47%	11%
Echelon Insights [162] [AC]	March 12–19, 2024	401 (LV)	± 5.7%	45%	51%	4%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [163] [U]	March 14–17, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College [164]	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	48%	8%
				48% [c]	52%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [165]	March 8–14, 2024	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	48%	9%
Fox News [166]	March 7–11, 2024	1,121 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	49%	6%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [167]	February 21–26, 2024	1,001 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	47%	13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [168]	February 12–20, 2024	798 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	49%	8%
Emerson College [109]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	46%	11%
J.L. Partners [169]	January 29 – February 1, 2024	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	45%	14%
Focaldata [170]	January 17–23, 2024	783 (A)	–	39%	43%	18% [r]
		– (LV)		41%	45%	14% [s]
		– (LV)		50% [c]	50%	–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [171]	January 16–21, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	47%	9%
The Bullfinch Group [172]	December 14–18, 2023	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	40%	50%	10%
VCreek/AMG (R) [173] [AD]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	41%	46%	13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [174]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
J.L. Partners [175] [AE]	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	48%	9%
Tulchin Research (D) [176] [AF]	November 13–20, 2023	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	42%	16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [177]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College [178]	October 30 – November 4, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	43%	16%
New York Times/Siena College [110]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	49%	7%
		603 (LV)		44%	49%	7%
Noble Predictive Insights [179]	October 25–31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	38%	46%	16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [180]	October 5–10, 2023	804 (RV)	± 3.0%	43%	47%	10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [181]	October 7–9, 2023	627 (RV)	–	39%	44%	16%
Emerson College [182]	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	43%	45%	13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [183] [AG]	July 22–24, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	44%	8%
Prime Group [184] [Z]	June 14–28, 2023	500 (RV)	–	48%	52%	–
				31%	41%	28% [t]
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [185] [AG]	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	41%	11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [186] [AG]	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	46%	44%	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [187] [AG]	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	44%	11%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [188] [AH]	March 13–14, 2023	1,001 (LV)	± 3.0%	39%	50%	11%
OH Predictive Insights [189]	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	39%	37%	24%
Blueprint Polling (D) [190]	January 5–8, 2023	618 (V)	± 3.9%	35%	38%	27%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [191]	November 8–9, 2022	874 (LV)	± 3.0%	47%	45%	8%
Targoz Market Research [192]	November 2–6, 2022	560 (LV)	± 4.1%	45%	53%	2%
Emerson College [193]	October 30 – November 1, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	42%	46%	12%
Emerson College [194]	September 6–7, 2022	627 (LV)	± 3.9%	41%	44%	15%
Echelon Insights [195] [X]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	773 (LV)	± 4.5%	43%	47%	10%
Blueprint Polling (D) [196]	May 12–16, 2022	608 (LV)	± 4.0%	41%	41%	18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [197] [D]	November 11–16, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	43%	51%	6%
Bendixen/Amandi International [198]	June 17–23, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	44%	5%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Public Policy Polling (D) [134] [S]	July 17–20, 2024	738 (RV)	± 3.6%	40%	45%	7%	–	2%	6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [199]	July 16–18, 2024	456 (LV)	–	40%	44%	7%	–	1%	8% [u]
Emerson College [137] [V]	July 15–16, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	46%	6%	1%	1%	10% [u]
Rasmussen Reports (R) [138] [W]	July 5–12, 2024	1,101 (LV)	± 3.0%	37%	46%	9%	1%	1%	6%
YouGov [200] [B]	July 4–12, 2024	900 (RV)	± 3.9%	37%	44%	5%	1%	2%	11%
J.L. Partners [201]	July 10–11, 2024	513 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	46%	4%	–	2%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [202]	July 8–10, 2024	419 (LV)	–	39%	43%	7%	–	1%	10% [v]
Echelon Insights [139] [X]	July 1–8, 2024	601 (LV)	± 5.0%	39%	41%	11%	1%	0%	8% [u]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [140]	July 1–5, 2024	781 (RV)	± 4.0%	38%	45%	9%	1%	0%	7%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [143] [M]	June 17–20, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	32%	42%	13%	–	3%	10% [w]
Emerson College [144]	June 13–18, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	43%	8%	1%	1%	8%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [145]	June 11–13, 2024	750 (RV)	± 4.0%	37%	41%	10%	2%	1%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [203]	June 8–11, 2024	430 (LV)	–	38%	40%	6%	–	1%	15% [v]
Fox News [146]	June 1–4, 2024	1,095 (RV)	± 3.0%	41%	46%	8%	1%	1%	3%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [147] [AI]	May 28 – June 4, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	37%	45%	11%	0%	3%	4%
Prime Group [150] [Z]	May 9–16, 2024	490 (RV)	–	40%	44%	11%	3%	2%	–
Noble Predictive Insights [151]	May 7–14, 2024	1,003 (RV)	± 3.1%	36%	43%	8%	1%	2%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [108]	May 7–13, 2024	795 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	45%	7%	1%	2%	5%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [152]	May 6–13, 2024	527 (LV)	± 4.3%	37%	41%	10%	2%	1%	9%
New York Times/Siena College [153]	April 28 – May 9, 2024	626 (RV)	± 4.0%	33%	42%	10%	0%	2%	13%
		626 (LV)		35%	44%	8%	0%	2%	11%
Emerson College [154]	April 25–29, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	44%	9%	1%	1%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [157]	April 8–15, 2024	801 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	46%	7%	2%	0%	5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [158] [D]	April 7–11, 2024	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	37%	42%	10%	–	2%	9%
Wall Street Journal [161]	March 17–24, 2024	600 (RV)	± 4.0%	34%	39%	13%	2%	1%	11% [x]
Emerson College [164]	March 12–15, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	46%	7%	1%	2%	6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [165]	March 8–14, 2024	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	43%	12%	2%	1%	5%
Fox News [166]	March 7–11, 2024	1,121 (RV)	± 3.0%	39%	43%	10%	1%	2%	5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [168]	February 12–20, 2024	798 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	45%	9%	1%	1%	8%
Emerson College [109]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	43%	8%	1%	1%	10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [204]	January 16–21, 2024	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	35%	43%	10%	1%	1%	10%
VCreek/AMG (R) [173] [AD]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	32%	40%	9%	3%	2%	14% [y]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [205]	November 27 – December 6, 2023	796 (RV)	± 3.0%	37%	40%	10%	1%	1%	11%
J.L. Partners [175] [AE]	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.2%	39%	44%	5%	1%	0%	12% [z]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
1983 Labs [206]	June 28–30, 2024	492 (LV)	± 4.4%	33%	48%	8%	11% [aa]
P2 Insights [207] [AJ]	June 11–20, 2024	650 (LV)	± 3.8%	36%	47%	7%	10%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [148]	May 19–21, 2024	609 (RV)	± 4.0%	37%	39%	9%	15%
		501 (LV)		39%	43%	7%	11%
P2 Insights [208] [AJ]	May 13–21, 2024	650 (LV)	± 3.8%	38%	41%	9%	12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [209]	May 2–4, 2024	625 (LV)	–	42%	44%	7%	7% [ab]
Data Orbital [210]	April 27–29, 2024	550 (LV)	± 4.3%	38.8%	38.1%	13.5%	9.6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [211]	March 14–17, 2024	516 (LV)	–	41%	44%	7%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [212]	December 28–30, 2023	808 (LV)	–	35%	41%	10%	14%
VCreek/AMG (R) [173] [AD]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	35%	40%	16%	9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [213]	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	33%	40%	10%	17%
New York Times/Siena College [214]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	33%	33%	26%	8%
		603 (LV)		34%	34%	24%	8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [181]	October 7–9, 2023	627 (LV)	–	37%	42%	8%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
North Star Opinion Research [163] [U]	March 14–17, 2024	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	33%	37%	18%	2%	10%
J.L. Partners [175] [AE]	November 27 – December 1, 2023	550 (LV)	± 4.4%	34%	39%	4%	1%	22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [215]	October 30 – November 7, 2023	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	36%	40%	11%	1%	12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Cornel West Green	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
Emerson College [182]	August 2–4, 2023	1,337 (RV)	± 2.6%	41%	42%	4%	13%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [156] [AA]	April 13–21, 2024	630 (LV)	–	34%	52%	14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [156] [AA]	April 13–21, 2024	630 (LV)	–	39%	46%	15%

Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [107] [P]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	44%	51%	5%
Emerson College [109]	February 16–19, 2024	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	34%	47%	19%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Gretchen Whitmer Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [107] [P]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	45%	49%	6%

JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	JB Pritzker Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [107] [P]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	41%	47%	12%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Josh Shapiro Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [107] [P]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	43%	46%	11%

Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Pete Buttigieg Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [107] [P]	July 10–11, 2024	596 (RV)	–	46%	49%	5%

Mark Kelly vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Mark Kelly Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [134] [S]	July 17–20, 2024	738 (RV)	± 3.6%	43%	45%	6%	1%	5%

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [213]	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	33%	25%	19%	23% [ac]

Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Nikki Haley Republican	Other / Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R) [173] [AD]	December 1–8, 2023	694 (RV)	–	30%	37%	33%
New York Times/Siena College [216]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	38%	45%	17%
		603 (LV)		37%	46%	17%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [213]	November 27–29, 2023	1,103 (LV)	–	34%	27%	17%	22% [ad]

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Ron DeSantis Republican	Other / Undecided
New York Times/Siena College [216]	October 22 – November 3, 2023	603 (RV)	± 4.4%	41%	46%	13%
		603 (LV)		42%	46%	12%
Noble Predictive Insights [179]	October 25 – 31, 2023	1,010 (RV)	± 3.1%	37%	40%	23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [183] [AG]	July 22–24, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	39%	46%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [185] [AG]	June 17–19, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	40%	46%	12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [186] [AG]	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	43%	47%	10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [187] [AG]	April 11–13, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	42%	48%	10%
OH Predictive Insights [189]	January 31 – February 9, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	35%	36%	29%
Blueprint Polling (D) [190]	January 5–8, 2023	618 (V)	± 3.9%	37%	43%	20%
Echelon Insights [195] [X]	August 31 – September 7, 2022	773 (LV)	± 4.5%	43%	43%	14%

Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Mike Pence Republican	Other / Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [186] [AG]	May 15–17, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	45%	43%	12%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Arizona ^[217]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	1,770,242	52.22%	3.16%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	1,582,860	46.69%	2.67%
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	18,319	0.54%	0.49%
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	17,898	0.53%	0.99%
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz (write-in) Karina Garcia (write-in)	689	0.02%	0.01%
	Independent	Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in) Crystal Ellis (write-in)	77	0.00%	N/A
	Constitution	Joel Skousen [ae] (write-in) Rik Combs (write-in)	53	0.00%
	Independent	DaWanda Shelton (write-in) Carrie Ann Serra (write-in)	19	0.00%	N/A
	Independent	President R. Boddie (write-in) Eric Stoneham (write-in)	4	0.00%
Total votes			3,390,161	100.00%	N/A

By county

Swing by county

Legend

•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5-10%
•   Republican — +10-12.5%
•   Republican — +12.5-15%
•   Republican — +>15%

County flips

Legend

• Democratic   Hold

  Republican   Hold   Gain from Democratic

County [218]	Donald Trump Republican		Kamala Harris Democratic		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Apache	12,795	39.86%	18,872	58.79%	434	1.35%	-6,077	-18.93%	32,101
Cochise	35,936	60.77%	22,296	37.70%	903	1.53%	13,640	23.07%	59,135
Coconino	27,576	39.18%	41,504	58.98%	1,294	1.84%	-13,928	-19.80%	70,374
Gila	18,901	68.24%	8,504	30.70%	293	1.06%	10,397	37.54%	27,698
Graham	11,177	73.46%	3,867	25.42%	171	1.12%	7,310	48.04%	15,215
Greenlee	2,308	69.60%	954	28.77%	54	1.63%	1,354	40.83%	3,316
La Paz	5,470	71.57%	2,101	27.49%	72	0.94%	3,369	44.08%	7,643
Maricopa	1,051,531	51.01%	980,016	47.54%	30,027	1.46%	71,515	3.47%	2,061,574
Mohave	85,683	77.41%	24,081	21.75%	929	0.84%	61,602	55.66%	110,693
Navajo	29,480	57.98%	20,754	40.82%	613	1.21%	8,726	17.16%	50,847
Pima	214,669	41.68%	292,450	56.78%	7,908	1.54%	-77,781	-15.10%	515,027
Pinal	126,926	60.39%	80,656	38.38%	2,591	1.23%	46,270	22.01%	210,173
Santa Cruz	7,699	40.17%	11,265	58.77%	203	1.06%	-3,566	-18.60%	19,167
Yavapai	99,346	66.48%	48,717	32.60%	1,365	0.91%	50,629	33.88%	149,428
Yuma	40,745	59.63%	26,823	39.25%	767	1.12%	13,922	20.38%	68,335
Totals	1,770,242	52.05%	1,582,860	46.54%	47,624	1.40%	187,382	5.51%	3,400,726

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Maricopa (largest city: Phoenix)

By congressional district

Trump won 6 out of 9 congressional districts. ^{[219] [ user-generated source ]}

District	Harris	Trump	Representative elected
1st	47.7%	50.9%	David Schweikert
2nd	42.0%	56.9%	Eli Crane
3rd	68.9%	29.3%	Ruben Gallego (118th Congress)
			Yassamin Ansari (119th Congress)
4th	52.3%	45.8%	Greg Stanton
5th	39.3%	59.2%	Andy Biggs
6th	48.9%	49.7%	Juan Ciscomani
7th	60.3%	38.2%	Raúl Grijalva
8th	41.2%	57.5%	Debbie Lesko (118th Congress)
			Abraham Hamadeh (119th Congress)
9th	34.0%	65.0%	Paul Gosar

Analysis

Trump received more than 1.77 million votes, setting a new record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of statewide elections in Arizona. Trump reclaimed the largest county in the state, Maricopa, although it once again voted to the left of the state, a trend that started in 2016 and foreshadowed his 2020 loss of the state. Harris did not get over 60% of the vote in a single county.

See also

• United States presidential elections in Arizona
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections
• 2024 Arizona elections

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
4. "Other" with 2%
5. "Other" with 1%
6. "Someone else" with 1%
7. "Someone else" with 7%
8. "Another party's candidates" with 1%
9. "Someone else" with 3%
10. "Other" with 3%
11. "Some other candidate" with 2%
12. "Someone else" with 2%
13. "Someone else" with 5%
14. "Some other candidate" with 5%
15. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
16. Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
17. "Someone else" with 15%
18. "Another candidate" with 12%
19. "Another candidate" with 11%
20. No Labels candidate
21. Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
22. Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
23. Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
24. Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%
25. Joe Manchin with 4%
26. "Someone else" with 12%
27. Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
28. Jill Stein (G) with 2%
29. "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
30. "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1%; "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" & "Would not vote" with 2%
31. The Constitution Party did not have ballot access in Arizona. Joel Skousen and Rik Combs registered as write-in candidates representing the party instead of the national ticket led by Randall Terry and Stephen Broden.

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
2. Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
3. Poll sponsored by American Thinker
4. Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
5. Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
6. Poll conducted for the Article III Project
7. Poll commissioned by AARP
8. Poll sponsored by Arizona's Family
9. Poll sponsored by the Democracy Defense Project and Echo Canyon Consulting
10. Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
11. Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
12. Poll sponsored by AZ Free News
13. Poll sponsored by American Greatness
14. Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
15. Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
16. Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
17. Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
18. Poll commissioned by AARP
19. Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
20. Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
21. Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
22. Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
23. Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
24. Poll sponsored by NetChoice
25. Poll commissioned by AARP
26. Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
27. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
28. Poll sponsored by Independent Center
29. Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
30. Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
31. Poll conducted for The Daily Mail
32. Poll sponsored by Stand for Children Arizona
33. Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
34. Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
35. Poll commissioned by AARP
36. Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates

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