2024 United States presidential election in Arizona

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2024 United States presidential election in Arizona
Flag of Arizona.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive)		 Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive)		 TBA
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election in Arizona is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Arizona voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [1] Arizona is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [2] If he wins the state again, he will become the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to carry the state in two consecutive presidential elections. This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean.

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in late February. [3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Arizona Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Democratic primary, March 19, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)375,11089.3%7272
Marianne Williamson 15,8443.8%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)11,6112.8%
Gabriel Cornejo (withdrawn)6,1281.5%
Frankie Lozada (withdrawn)4,9761.2%
Jason Palmer 3,7520.9%
Stephen Lyons (withdrawn)2,7530.7%
Total:420,174100.0%721385
Source: [4]

Republican primary

The Arizona Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Arizona Republican Primary, March 19, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 492,29978.8%4343
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)110,96617.8%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)10,1311.6%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)5,0780.8%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)2,4790.4%
David Stuckenberg1,3670.2%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)8910.1%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)7140.1%
John Anthony Castro 5050.1%
Total:624,431100.0%4343
Source: [5]

General election

Arizona Representative Rachel Jones, a Republican, introduced a resolution in February 2024 that would request that the Arizona governor "change the manner of the presidential election by appointing the eleven presidential electors to the Republican primary winner to offset the removal of a Republican candidate from the ballot in Colorado and Maine". [6] [7]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [8] TossupDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [9] TossupApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [10] TossupJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [11] TossupDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [12] TossupDecember 30, 2023
CNN [13] TossupJanuary 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] April 7–11, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%44%48%8%
The Bullfinch Group [upper-alpha 2] March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%38%44%18% [lower-alpha 2]
RABA Research March 28–31, 2024503 (RV)± 4.4%36%39%25% [lower-alpha 3]
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%42%47%11%
Echelon Insights [upper-alpha 3] March 12–19, 2024401 (LV)± 5.7%45%51%4%
North Star Opinion Research [upper-alpha 4] March 14–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%46%12%
Emerson College March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%52%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–14, 2024796 (RV)± 3.0%43%48%9%
Fox News March 7–11, 20241,121 (RV)± 3.0%45%49%6%
Rasmussen Reports (R) February 21–26, 20241,001 (RV)± 3.0%40%47%13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024798 (RV)± 3.0%43%49%8%
Emerson College February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%46%11%
J.L. Partners January 29 – February 1, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%41%45%14%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024800 (RV)± 3.0%44%47%9%
The Bullfinch Group December 14–18, 2023600 (RV)± 4.0%40%50%10%
VCreek/AMG (R) [upper-alpha 5] December 1–8, 2023694 (RV)–41%46%13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023796 (RV)± 3.0%42%46%12%
J.L. Partners November 27 – December 1, 2023550 (LV)± 4.4%43%48%9%
Tulchin Research (D) November 13–20, 2023800 (LV)± 3.4%42%42%16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023800 (RV)± 3.0%42%46%12%
Emerson College October 30 – November 4, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%43%16%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%44%49%7%
Noble Predictive Insights October 25–31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%38%46%16%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 5–10, 2023804 (RV)± 3.0%43%47%10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023627 (RV)–39%44%16%
Emerson College August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%43%45%13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) July 22–24, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%45%44%8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) June 17–19, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%44%41%11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 15–17, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%46%44%10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 11–13, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%45%44%11%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [upper-alpha 6] March 13–14, 20231,001 (LV)± 3.0%39%50%11%
OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%39%37%24%
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023618 (V)± 3.9%35%38%27%
Rasmussen Reports (R) November 8–9, 2022874 (LV)± 3.0%47%45%8%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022560 (LV)± 4.1%45%53%2%
Emerson College October 30 – November 1, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%42%46%12%
Emerson College September 6–7, 2022627 (LV)± 3.9%41%44%15%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022773 (LV)± 4.5%43%47%10%
Blueprint Polling (D) May 12–16, 2022608 (LV)± 4.0%41%41%18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] November 11–16, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%43%51%6%
Bendixen/Amandi International June 17–23, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%51%44%5%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 1] April 7–11, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%37%42%10%–2%9%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%34%39%13%2%1%11% [lower-alpha 4]
Emerson College March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%38%46%7%1%2%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–14, 2024796 (RV)± 3.0%37%43%12%2%1%5%
Fox News March 7–11, 20241,121 (RV)± 3.0%39%43%10%1%2%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024798 (RV)± 3.0%36%45%9%1%1%8%
Emerson College February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%37%43%8%1%1%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024800 (RV)± 3.0%35%43%10%1%1%10%
VCreek/AMG (R) [upper-alpha 7] December 1–8, 2023694 (RV)–32%40%9%3%2%14% [lower-alpha 5]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023796 (RV)± 3.0%37%40%10%1%1%11%
J.L. Partners/Daily Mail November 27 – December 1, 2023550 (LV)± 4.2%39%44%5%1%0%12% [lower-alpha 6]
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
North Star Opinion Research [upper-alpha 8] March 14–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%33%37%18%2%10%
J.L. Partners November 27 – December 1, 2023550 (LV)± 4.4%34%39%4%1%22%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023800 (RV)± 3.0%36%40%11%1%12%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 14–17, 2024516 (LV)–41%44%7%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies December 28–30, 2023808 (LV)–35%41%10%14%
VCreek/AMG (R) [upper-alpha 9] December 1–8, 2023694 (RV)–35%40%16%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 20231,103 (LV)–33%40%10%17%
New York Times/Siena College October 22– November 3, 2023603 (LV)±4.433%33%26%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023627 (LV)–37%42%8%12%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Cornel
West
Green		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College August 2–4, 20231,337 (RV)± 2.6%41%42%4%13%
Hypothetical polling
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 20231,103 (LV)–33%25%19%6%17%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
VCreek/AMG (R) [upper-alpha 10] December 1–8, 2023694 (RV)–30%37%33%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%37%46%17%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 20231,103 (LV)–34%27%17%6%16%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%42%46%12%
Noble Predictive Insights October 25 – 31, 20231,010 (RV)± 3.1%37%40%23%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) July 22–24, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%39%46%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) June 17–19, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%40%46%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 15–17, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%43%47%10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 11–13, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%42%48%10%
OH Predictive Insights January 31 – February 9, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.1%35%36%29%
Blueprint Polling (D) January 5–8, 2023618 (V)± 3.9%37%43%20%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022773 (LV)± 4.5%43%43%14%
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Mike
Pence
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 15–17, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%45%43%12%
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023603 (RV)± 4.4%44%47%9%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Independent/Third party candidate with 13%
  3. ↑ "Someone else" with 15%
  4. ↑ Lars Mapstead (L) with 3%
  5. ↑ Joe Manchin with 4%
  6. ↑ "Someone else" with 12%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by Independent Center
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by College Republicans United
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
  8. ↑ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
  9. ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC
  10. ↑ Poll sponsored by Americas PAC

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References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ↑ Pellish, Aaron (February 27, 2024). "Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  4. ↑ "Arizona Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Arizona Presidential Primary". The AP. April 8, 2024. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
  6. ↑ Stern, Ray (February 15, 2024). "Arizona lawmaker wants to give state electoral votes to GOP nominee before 2024 election". Arizona Republic . Archived from the original on February 18, 2024. Retrieved February 18, 2024.
  7. ↑ Jones, Rachel. "H.C.R. 2055" (PDF). Arizona Legislature. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  8. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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