2024 Montana gubernatorial election

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2024 Montana gubernatorial election
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  Greg Gianforte in Taiwan (cropped).jpg Ryan Busse in Hank Green interview video (alt crop).jpg
Nominee Greg Gianforte Ryan Busse
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kristen Juras Raph Graybill
Popular vote354,569232,644
Percentage58.86%38.62%
2024 Montana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2024 Montana gubernatorial election by congressional district.svg
MT Governor 2024.svg
Gianforte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Busse:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
     No votes
Governor before election

Greg Gianforte
Republican

Elected Governor

Greg Gianforte
Republican

The 2024 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of the U.S. state of Montana, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024. [1] Incumbent Republican governor Greg Gianforte won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Ryan Busse. [2]

Contents

Though Montana has backed Republicans in every presidential election since 1996, the sparsely-populated Mountain state maintained a Democratic tendency at the state and U.S. Senate levels well through the 2010s. This was the first gubernatorial election since 1996 that a Republican was re-elected governor of Montana.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Endorsements

Results

Primary results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Gianforte 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2024 Montana gubernatorial Republican primary results map by county.svg
Primary results by county:
  Gianforte
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [8]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Greg Gianforte (incumbent)
Kristen Juras (incumbent) 		144,752 75.2%
Republican Tanner Smith
Randy Pinocci		47,74724.8%
Total votes192,499 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Shawn White Wolf, perennial candidate [13]

Results

Primary results by county Busse 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% Hunt 60-70% Tie 50% 2024 Montana gubernatorial Democratic primary results map by county.svg
Primary results by county
  Busse
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Hunt
  •   60–70%
  Tie
  •   50%
Democratic primary results [14]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Ryan Busse
Raph Graybill 		69,184 70.9%
Democratic Jim Hunt
Jerry Driscoll		28,35429.1%
Total votes97,538 100.00%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Presumptive nominee

  • Kaiser Leib, software engineer [11]
    • Running mate: Matt Campbell, transportation engineer [12]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [15] Solid RJune 13, 2024
Inside Elections [16] Solid RJuly 14, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [17] Safe RJune 4, 2024
RCP [18] Likely RJuly 13, 2024
Elections Daily [19] Safe RJuly 12, 2023
CNalysis [20] Solid RAugust 17, 2024

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Gianforte (R)		Ryan
Busse (D)		OtherUndecided
Montana State University [21] September 30 – October 16, 2024760 (A)± 3.56%50%31%5% [b] 14%
The New York Times/Siena College [22] October 5–8, 2024656 (LV)± 4.3%57%35%–8%
656 (RV)57%35%–9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [23] [A] September 29 – October 1, 2024500 (LV)± 4.34%55%36%1% [c] 7%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D) [24] [B] 		August 25–29, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%54%38%–8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [25] [A] August 18–20, 2024500 (LV)± 4.38%53%34%4% [d] 8%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [25] [A] June 11–13, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%54%33%5% [e] 8%
SurveyUSA [26] [C] February 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%52%30%–18%

Results

2024 Montana gubernatorial election [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican
354,569 58.86% +4.43%
Democratic
232,64438.62%−2.94%
Libertarian
  • Kaiser Leib
  • Matt Campbell
15,1912.52%−1.49%
Total votes602,404 100.00% N/A
Turnout 612,42376.57%
Registered electors 799,849
Republican hold

Results by county

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%
  3. ↑ Kaiser Leib (L) with 1%
  4. ↑ Kaiser Leib (L) with 4%
  5. ↑ Kaiser Leib (L) with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Montana Republican Party
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by KULR-TV

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References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures . Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Busse and Gianforte win their respective primary races". KRTV NEWS Great Falls. June 5, 2024. Retrieved October 27, 2024.
  3. 1 2 Anthony, Michael (January 17, 2024). "Governor Greg Gianforte to seek reelection". KFYR-TV . Retrieved January 17, 2024.
  4. ↑ Larson, Seaborn (June 13, 2023). "Freshman GOP Rep. announces run for governor". Independent Record .
  5. ↑ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex; Eggert, Amanda (April 15, 2024). "Who's running for office in Montana's 2024 election". Montana Free Press . Retrieved May 2, 2024.
  6. ↑ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  7. ↑ Stacy, Nicole (May 3, 2024). "SBA Pro-Life America Candidate Fund Endorses Gianforte for Governor". SBA Pro-Life America. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  8. ↑ "Montana Governor Primary Election 2024 Live Results". www.nbcnews.com. December 4, 2024.
  9. ↑ Hanson, Amy; Brown, Matthew (September 14, 2023). "Former firearms executive Busse seeks Democratic nomination for Montana governor". Associated Press . Retrieved September 14, 2023.
  10. ↑ Silvers, Mara (February 19, 2024). "Busse taps Graybill as running mate in bid for governor's office". Montana Free Press . Retrieved February 20, 2024.
  11. 1 2 "FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  12. 1 2 Ambarian, Jonathon (March 11, 2024). "Top Montana election races set as candidate filing period closes". KTVH . Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  13. ↑ Kimbel-Sannit, Arren; Sakariassen, Alex (November 28, 2023). "Who's running for office in Montana in 2024? Here's a running list". Montana Free Press . Retrieved January 17, 2024. Shawn White Wolf, who has run for a number of different positions in the Helena area in recent years, filed to run for governor in 2023 but has since withdrawn his candidacy.
  14. ↑ "Montana Governor Primary Election 2024 Live Results". www.nbcnews.com. December 4, 2024.
  15. ↑ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  16. ↑ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  17. ↑ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  18. ↑ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  19. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  20. ↑ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  21. ↑ "Montana State University" (PDF).
  22. ↑ "Cross-Tabs: October 2024 Times/Siena Poll of the Likely Electorate in Montana". October 10, 2024 – via NYTimes.com.
  23. ↑ "Public Opinion Strategies (R)" (PDF).
  24. ↑ "Fabrizio Ward (R)/
    David Binder Research (D)"     (PDF).
  25. 1 2 Public Opinion Strategies (R)
  26. ↑ Journalist, Bobby Lee NonStop Local Digital (February 23, 2024). "Governor Gianforte leads against Busse in MT election poll conducted by NonStop Local". NonStop Local Montana.
  27. ↑ "2024 Statewide General Election Canvass". Secretary of State of Montana . December 11, 2024. Retrieved December 11, 2024.

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