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| Elections in Florida |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Rick Scott was elected with 50.05% of the vote in 2018. He is running for re-election to a second term in office. Primary elections will take place on August 20, 2024. [1]
Long one of the core swing states, Florida has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now considered to be a moderately red state at the federal level, with Donald Trump carrying Florida by about three and a half percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. [2]
As a result of that trend, Republicans have seen much more success in the state in recent years. That was most prevalent when the Florida GOP saw landslide victories in the 2022 gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections. As of 2024, Republicans control both of Florida's U.S. Senate seats, all statewide offices, supermajorities in both houses of the Florida Legislature, and a large majority in its U.S. House congressional delegation. [3]
Scott was first elected in 2018 by 0.1 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson. [4] With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits consider the race to be favoring Scott.
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Keith Gross (R) | $1,383,843 [lower-alpha 1] | $1,319,973 | $63,869 |
| Rick Scott (R) | $18,763,597 [lower-alpha 2] | $17,052,569 | $3,171,632 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [29] | |||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Columbus | |||
| Republican | Keith Gross | |||
| Republican | Rick Scott (incumbent) | |||
| Total votes | ||||
| Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Stanley Campbell (D) | $1,021,873 [lower-alpha 3] | $108,249 | $913,623 |
| Rod Joseph (D) | $15,428 | $12,392 | $3,036 |
| Alan Grayson (D) | $303,324 | $266,349 | $41,012 |
| Donald Horan (D) [lower-alpha 4] | $73,455 | $73,455 | $0 |
| Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) | $3,768,972 | $2,224,782 | $1,544,190 |
| Evertt Stern (D) [lower-alpha 4] | $325 | $325 | $0 |
| Brian Rush (D) | $71,875 [lower-alpha 5] | $39,135 | $32,739 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [29] | |||
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Stanley Campbell | |||
| Democratic | Alan Grayson | |||
| Democratic | Rod Joseph | |||
| Democratic | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | |||
| Democratic | Brian Rush | |||
| Total votes | ||||
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report [68] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections [69] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [70] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
| Elections Daily [71] | Likely R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis [72] | Very Likely R | November 21, 2023 |
Rick Scott vs. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 6] | Margin of error | Rick Scott (R) | Debbie Mucarsel- Powell (D) | Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research | April 15–17, 2024 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 35% | 14% [lower-alpha 7] |
| 815 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 36% | 12% [lower-alpha 8] | ||
| USA Today/Ipsos | April 5–7, 2024 | 1,014 (A) | ± 4.1% | 36% | 26% | 38% [lower-alpha 9] |
| Emerson College | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | 16% |
| Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] | February 29 – March 1, 2024 | 790 (V) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 2] | July 5–10, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 6] | Margin of error | Rick Scott (R) | Phil Ehr (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 3] | June 27–29, 2023 | 1,298 (LV) | ? | 45% | 41% | 14% [lower-alpha 10] |
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One GOP operative suggested Rep. Byron Donalds, a first-term congressman from southwest Florida, as a possible rival [to Scott].
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, declining to challenge U.S. Rick Scott in 2024.
Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell is not running against Republican Sen. Rick Scott, a move she says is due to unfinished business in the state legislature.