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Elections in Florida |
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Business and advocacy career Governor of Florida
U.S. Senator from Florida
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Florida. Incumbent Republican Senator Rick Scott won re-election to a second term, defeating Democratic nominee Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The primary election was held on August 20, 2024. [1]
Scott, then the governor of Florida, was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018 by 0.1 points, defeating then-incumbent Bill Nelson. [2] With the benefit of incumbency and the state's rightward trend, most political pundits considered the race to be favoring Scott to win re-election. On Election Day, Scott won by 12.8 percentage points, a significantly larger margin than most pre-election polls had suggested.
Out of all of Scott’s four statewide races (2010 and 2014 gubernatorial elections, 2018 and 2024 senatorial elections), this election was by far his best performance, and the first one he won decisively, as he narrowly won the latter three all by less than a 2% margin. Scott won majority-Hispanic Miami-Dade County for the first time in all of his statewide races.
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Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
John Columbus (R) | $23,174 | $22,857 | $317 |
Keith Gross (R) | $2,449,122 [a] | $2,440,444 | $8,679 |
Rick Scott (R) | $29,350,647 [b] | $26,466,192 | $4,345,058 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [31] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Scott (incumbent) | 1,283,904 | 84.38% | |
Republican | Keith Gross | 142,392 | 9.36% | |
Republican | John Columbus | 95,342 | 6.26% | |
Total votes | 1,521,638 | 100.0% |
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Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Stanley Campbell (D) | $1,081,092 [g] | $687,145 | $394,415 |
Rod Joseph (D) | $28,596 | $20,855 | $7,741 |
Alan Grayson (D) [h] | $728,813 [i] | $582,703 | $150,148 |
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) | $12,133,366 | $7,802,905 | $4,330,461 |
Brian Rush (D) | $82,333 [j] | $63,529 | $18,804 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [31] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [k] | Margin of error | Alan Grayson | Debbie Mucarsel- Powell | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Florida Atlantic University/Mainstreet Research [76] | June 8–9, 2024 | 346 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 12% | 43% | 45% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | 747,397 | 68.50% | |
Democratic | Stanley Campbell | 213,777 | 19.59% | |
Democratic | Brian Rush | 73,013 | 6.69% | |
Democratic | Rod Joseph | 56,961 | 5.22% | |
Total votes | 1,091,148 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [77] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
Inside Elections [78] | Likely R | September 26, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [79] | Likely R | November 9, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [80] | Lean R | August 26, 2024 |
Elections Daily [81] | Likely R | May 4, 2023 |
CNalysis [82] | Likely R | September 26, 2024 |
RealClearPolitics [83] | Lean R | October 15, 2024 |
Split Ticket [84] | Lean R | October 23, 2024 |
538 [85] | Likely R | October 23, 2024 |
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Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Rick Scott (R) | Debbie Mucarsel- Powell (D) | Undecided [l] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight [93] | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.6% | 44.9% | 5.5% | Scott +4.7% |
RealClearPolitics [94] | September 29 – November 1, 2024 | November 3, 2024 | 48.9% | 44.3% | 6.8% | Scott +4.6% |
270toWin [95] | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.3% | 44.5% | 6.2% | Scott +4.8% |
TheHill/DDHQ [96] | November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 50.8% | 45.4% | 3.8% | Scott +5.4% |
Average | 49.7% | 44.8% | 5.5% | Scott+4.9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [k] | Margin of error | Rick Scott (R) | Debbie Mucarsel- Powell (D) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research Co. [97] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 43% | 3% [m] | 4% |
Victory Insights (R) [98] | November 1–2, 2024 | 400 (LV) | – | 51% | 47% | – | 2% |
Stetson University [99] [100] | October 25 – November 1, 2024 | 452 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 53% | 45% | 2% [n] | – |
Morning Consult [101] | October 23 – November 1, 2024 | 2,022 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
Cygnal (R) [102] | October 26–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | 3% [o] | 3% |
Mainstreet Research/FAU [103] | October 19–27, 2024 | 897 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 46% | 2% [p] | 2% |
913 (RV) | 50% | 46% | 2% [q] | 3% | |||
ActiVote [104] | October 17–27, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 45% | – | – |
St. Pete Polls [105] [A] | October 23–25, 2024 | 1,227 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 46% | – | 6% |
Emerson College [106] [B] | October 18–20, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 47% | – | – |
48% | 44% | – | 8% | ||||
Cherry Communications [107] [C] | October 10–20, 2024 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 4% |
ActiVote [108] | September 23 – October 20, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [109] [D] | October 16–18, 2024 | 1,275 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 42% | 5% [r] | 8% |
University of North Florida [110] | October 7–18, 2024 | 977 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 46% | 1% [s] | 4% |
RMG Research [111] [E] | October 14–17, 2024 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 44% | – | 3% |
YouGov [112] [F] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,094 (RV) | ± 3.46% | 49% | 45% | – | 6% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [113] [D] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,009 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 42% | 6% [t] | 8% |
Marist College [114] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,257 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 48% | – | 1% |
1,410 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | – | 2% | ||
NYT/Siena College [115] | September 29 – October 6, 2024 | 622 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% |
622 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 39% | – | 12% | ||
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [116] [G] | October 1–4, 2024 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | 2% [u] | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [117] [D] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 2,946 (LV) | ± 1.7% | 44% | 41% | 4% [v] | 10% |
RMG Research [118] [E] | September 25–27, 2024 | 774 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 44% | – | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [119] [H] | September 25–26, 2024 | 808 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
44% | 43% | 2% [w] | 12% | ||||
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [120] [I] | September 23–25, 2024 | 1,200 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
Victory Insights (R) [121] | September 22–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 44% | – | 12% |
The Bullfinch Group [122] [J] | September 20–23, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 44% | – | 10% |
43% | 42% | 4% | 11% | ||||
ActiVote [123] | August 21 – September 22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 54% | 46% | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [124] [D] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,602 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 45% | 41% | 3% [x] | 11% |
Morning Consult [101] | September 9–18, 2024 | 2,948 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 46% | 42% | – | 12% |
Morning Consult [125] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 3,182 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
Emerson College [126] [B] | September 3–5, 2024 | 815 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 45% | – | 9% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [127] [D] | August 25–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 40% | 4% [y] | 14% |
Cherry Communications (R) [128] [C] | August 15–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [129] [H] | August 21–22, 2024 | 837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
837 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | 2% [z] | 10% | ||
Primary elections held | |||||||
Mainstreet Research/FAU [130] | August 10–11, 2024 | 1,055 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 11% [aa] | 7% |
1,040 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 3% [ab] | 6% | ||
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [131] [I] | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 52% | 42% | – | 7% |
University of North Florida [132] | July 24–27, 2024 | 774 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 43% | – [ac] | 11% |
Targoz Market Research [133] [K] | July 19–24, 2024 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
988 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 49% | 43% | – | 8% | ||
Mainstreet Research/FAU [134] | June 8–9, 2024 | 883 (A) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 40% | 6% [ad] | 10% |
771 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 43% | 4% [ae] | 8% | ||
The Tyson Group (R) [135] | June 6–9, 2024 | 1,050 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 33% | – | 21% |
CBS News/YouGov [136] | May 10–16, 2024 | 1,209 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 37% | – | 19% |
Cherry Communications (R) [137] [C] | April 28 – May 7, 2024 | 609 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 54% | 39% | – | 7% |
Mainstreet Research/FAU [138] | April 15–17, 2024 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 52% | 35% | 5% [af] | 9% |
815 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 53% | 36% | 4% [ae] | 8% | ||
USA Today/Ipsos [139] | April 5–7, 2024 | 1,014 (A) | ± 4.1% | 36% | 26% | 5% [ag] | 33% |
Emerson College [140] | April 3–7, 2024 | 608 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | – | 16% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [141] [L] | February 29 – March 1, 2024 | 790 (V) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | – | – |
Global Strategy Group (D) [142] [M] | July 5–10, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | – | 13% |
Rick Scott vs. Phil Ehr
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [k] | Margin of error | Rick Scott (R) | Phil Ehr (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research (D) [143] [N] | June 27–29, 2023 | 1,298 (LV) | – | 45% | 41% | 14% [ah] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Rick Scott (incumbent) | 5,977,706 | 55.57% | +5.52% | |
Democratic | Debbie Mucarsel-Powell | 4,603,077 | 42.79% | −7.14% | |
Independent | Ben Everidge | 62,683 | 0.58% | N/A | |
Libertarian | Feena Bonoan | 57,363 | 0.53% | N/A | |
Independent | Tuan TQ Nguyen | 56,586 | 0.53% | N/A | |
Write-in | 13 | 0.00% | -0.01% | ||
Total votes | 10,757,428 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
Scott won 20 of 28 congressional districts. [145]
District | Scott | Mucarsel-Powell | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 69% | 29% | Matt Gaetz |
2nd | 60% | 38% | Neal Dunn |
3rd | 60% | 38% | Kat Cammack |
4th | 55% | 43% | Aaron Bean |
5th | 60% | 38% | John Rutherford |
6th | 63% | 35% | Michael Waltz |
7th | 55% | 43% | Cory Mills |
8th | 59% | 39% | Bill Posey (118th Congress) |
Mike Haridopolos (119th Congress) | |||
9th | 48% | 50% | Darren Soto |
10th | 38% | 60% | Maxwell Frost |
11th | 58% | 41% | Daniel Webster |
12th | 64% | 34% | Gus Bilirakis |
13th | 54% | 44% | Anna Paulina Luna |
14th | 46% | 53% | Kathy Castor |
15th | 54% | 44% | Laurel Lee |
16th | 57% | 42% | Vern Buchanan |
17th | 62% | 37% | Greg Steube |
18th | 63% | 35% | Scott Franklin |
19th | 67% | 32% | Byron Donalds |
20th | 28% | 70% | Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick |
21st | 57% | 42% | Brian Mast |
22nd | 46% | 53% | Lois Frankel |
23rd | 47% | 51% | Jared Moskowitz |
24th | 33% | 65% | Frederica Wilson |
25th | 45% | 54% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz |
26th | 68% | 31% | Mario Díaz-Balart |
27th | 56% | 42% | María Elvira Salazar |
28th | 61% | 38% | Carlos A. Giménez |
Partisan clients
One GOP operative suggested Rep. Byron Donalds, a first-term congressman from southwest Florida, as a possible rival [to Scott].
U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz, declining to challenge U.S. Rick Scott in 2024.
Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell is not running against Republican Sen. Rick Scott, a move she says is due to unfinished business in the state legislature.
Official campaign websites