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Elections in North Carolina |
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The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper is term-limited and can not seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024. [1]
A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. However, its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, and both Democrats and Republicans each hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points. [2] [3]
The incumbent, Roy Cooper, was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points. [3] [4]
The 2024 election is expected to be competitive due to a variety of factors: North Carolina is a purple to slightly red state, the election is taking place in a presidential election year, and the seat is open due to term-limits facing the incumbent. The first Democrat to enter the race was Josh Stein, the current Attorney General. He was followed by recently-retired N.C. Supreme Court Justice Michael R. Morgan. Two Republicans who are currently serving in positions that are elected statewide have declared their candidacy: Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor, and Dale Folwell, the current State Treasurer. [5]
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County results Stein: 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% Morgan: 40-50% 50-60% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Chrelle Booker | Gary Foxx | Michael Morgan | Josh Stein | Marcus Williams | Other | Undecided | ||||||
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High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 322 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 10% | 10% | 14% | 57% | 9% | – | – | ||||||
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | – | – | 8% | 49% | – | 4% [lower-alpha 2] | 39% | ||||||
ECU Center for Survey Research | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 57% | 3% | – | 29% | ||||||
Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 31% | 2% | 4% | 51% | ||||||
Public Policy Polling (D) | December 15–16, 2023 | 556 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 3% | 1% | 5% | 56% | 4% | – | 32% | ||||||
Foxx joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
Williams joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
Booker joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 38% | – | 9% | 42% | ||||||
Meredith College | September 16–19, 2023 | 308 (RV) | ± 3.5% | – | – | 11% | 33% | – | 10% | 46% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mandy Cohen | Jeff Jackson | Josh Stein | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 18% | 12% | 22% | 9% | 39% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Josh Stein | 476,448 | 69.64 | |
Democratic | Michael R. Morgan | 97,908 | 14.31 | |
Democratic | Chrelle Booker | 45,695 | 6.68 | |
Democratic | Marcus Williams | 38,996 | 5.70 | |
Democratic | Gary Foxx | 25,100 | 3.67 | |
Total votes | 684,147 | 100.00 |
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County results Robinson: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican |
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Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||
Dale Folwell | Mark Walker | Jesse Thomas | |||||
1 | Sep. 12, 2023 | Wake County Republican Party | Bill LuMaye | YouTube | P | P | P |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Dale Folwell | Bill Graham | Mark Robinson | Jesse Thomas | Mark Walker | Andy Wells | Other | Undecided | |||||
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High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 394 (LV) | ± 6.0% | 17% | 33% | 51% | 9% | – | – | – | – | |||||
Capen Analytics | February 21, 2024 | 12,580 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 29% | 18% | 53% | – | – | – | – | – | |||||
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 9% | 9% | 57% | – | – | – | 3% [lower-alpha 3] | 22% | |||||
ECU Center for Survey Research | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 7% | 13% | 53% | – | – | – | – | 27% | |||||
Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 4% | 9% | 34% | – | – | – | 10% | 42% | |||||
Public Policy Polling (D) | January 5–6, 2024 | 619 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 7% | 15% | 55% | – | – | – | – | 24% | |||||
Wells withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
ECU Center for Survey Research | November 29 – Dec 1, 2023 | 445 (LV) | ± 5.4% | 7% | 8% | 34% | – | – | 3% | – | 49% | |||||
Thomas withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | 5% | 41% | 2% | – | 1% | 6% | 42% | |||||
Walker withdraws from the race | ||||||||||||||||
Graham joins the race | ||||||||||||||||
Cygnal [upper-alpha 2] | October 8–9, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 5% | – | 49% | 1% | 4% | 1% | – | 41% | |||||
Meredith College | September 16–19, 2023 | 350 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 3% | – | 34% | 3% | 7% | 3% | 6% | 44% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Dale Folwell | Pat McCrory | Mark Robinson | Thom Tillis | Steve Troxler | Mark Walker | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 4% | - | 44% | - | - | 7% | 7% | 38% |
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2] | April 25–29, 2023 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 4% | - | 43% | - | 9% | 8% | - | 37% |
The Differentiators (R) | December 12, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 6% | - | 60% | - | - | - | - | 34% |
- | 21% | 60% | - | - | - | - | 19% | ||||
- | - | 58% | - | - | 8% | - | 34% | ||||
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 4% | - | 54% | 20% | - | - | 5% | 17% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mark Robinson | 663,917 | 64.8% | |
Republican | Dale Folwell | 196,108 | 19.2% | |
Republican | Bill Graham | 163,757 | 16.0% | |
Total votes | 1,023,782 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Mike Ross | 2,898 | 59.49 | |
Libertarian | Shannon Bray | 1,973 | 40.51 | |
Total votes | 4,871 | 100 |
Republican Robinson and Democrat Stein will face each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson has received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson has also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office. [46] Robinson has even received criticism from some Republicans, including U.S. Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson. [47]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [48] | Lean D | July 21, 2023 |
Inside Elections [49] | Tossup | September 1, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [50] | Tossup | July 13, 2023 |
Elections Daily [51] | Tossup | July 12, 2023 |
Endorsements in bold were made after the primary elections.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Mark Robinson (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meredith College | April 11–17, 2024 | 711 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 36% | 20% |
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] | April 7–8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 40% | 18% |
Quinnipiac University | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 52% | 44% | 4% |
HPU Survey Research Center | March 22–30, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 37% | 34% | 29% |
Marist College | March 11–14, 2024 | 1,197 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 3] | March 3–9, 2024 | 598 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] | March 6–7, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 44% | 17% |
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | February 15–19, 2024 | 1,622 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 43% | 15% |
ECU Center for Survey Research | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 41% | 41% | 14% |
Meredith College | January 26–31, 2024 | 760 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 35% | 17% |
ECU Center for Survey Research | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 44% | 16% |
Meredith College | November 1–5, 2023 | 755 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 36% | 19% |
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | September 1–5, 2023 | 914 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 38% | 42% | 20% |
Opinion Diagnostics | June 5–7, 2023 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 38% | 41% | 21% |
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 41% | 42% | 18% |
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] | May 5–8, 2023 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Public Policy Polling (D) | March 2–3, 2023 | 704 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Differentiators (R) [upper-alpha 4] | January 9–12, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] | October 7–8, 2022 | 606 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
Meeting Street Insights (R) [upper-alpha 5] | May 12–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Mark Robinson (R) | Mike Ross (L) | Wayne Turner (G) | Undecided |
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Quinnipiac University | April 4–8, 2024 | 1,401 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 48% | 41% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Dale Folwell (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ECU Center for Survey Research | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 42% | 31% | 27% |
ECU Center for Survey Research | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 38% | 22% |
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 34% | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Bill Graham (R) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ECU Center for Survey Research | February 9–12, 2024 | 1,207 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 40% | 35% | 25% |
ECU Center for Survey Research | November 29 – December 1, 2023 | 915 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Josh Stein (D) | Mark Walker (R) | Undecided |
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Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] | May 12–23, 2023 | 610 (LV) | ± 3.96% | 39% | 37% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Democrat (D) | Generic Republican (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Point University | February 16–23, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 45% | 2% [lower-alpha 4] | 7% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Josh Stein | ||||
Republican | Mark Robinson | ||||
Libertarian | Mike Ross | ||||
Green | Wayne Turner | ||||
Total votes |
The North Carolina Democratic Party (NCDP) is the North Carolina affiliate of the Democratic Party. It is headquartered in the historic Goodwin House, located in Raleigh.
Joshua Harold Stein is an American lawyer and politician who serves as the 51st attorney general of North Carolina. A member of the Democratic Party, Stein previously was a member of the North Carolina Senate representing the 16th district, located in Wake County.
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The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014 to elect the 13 U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, one from each of the state's 13 congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections, including an election to the U.S. Senate.
Jeffrey Neale Jackson is an American politician, attorney, and military officer serving as the U.S. representative for North Carolina's 14th congressional district since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, he represented the 37th district in the North Carolina Senate from 2014 to 2022.
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The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 6, 2018, electing the thirteen U.S. representatives from the State of North Carolina, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, as well as elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 3, 2020, to elect the 13 U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, one from each of the state's 13 congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.
The 2022 United States Senate election in North Carolina was held on November 8, 2022 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of North Carolina. Primary elections were scheduled for March 8, 2022, but were delayed by the North Carolina Supreme Court and rescheduled for May 17.
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The 2022 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina were held on November 8, 2022, to elect U.S. representatives from the state of North Carolina, concurrent with nationwide elections to the House of Representatives and U.S. Senate, alongside legislative elections to the state house and senate. Primaries were held on May 17, 2022.
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The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in North Carolina will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the fourteen U.S. representatives from the State of North Carolina, one from all fourteen of the state's congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on March 5, 2024.
The North Carolina Council of State elections of 2024 are scheduled to be held on November 5, 2024, to select the ten officers of the North Carolina Council of State. These elections coincide with the presidential election, elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the North Carolina General Assembly and top state courts. Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024, for offices for which more than one candidate filed per party.
The 2024 North Carolina lieutenant gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the lieutenant governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Mark Robinson was eligible to seek re-election to a second term in office, but is instead running for governor.
The 2024 North Carolina Attorney General election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the next attorney general of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the U.S. Senate and various state and local elections, including for U.S. House and governor of North Carolina. Incumbent Democratic Attorney General Josh Stein was eligible to run for re-election to a third term, but has decided instead to run for governor. Republicans have not won an election for Attorney General in North Carolina since 1896, thus since 2019 North Carolina has had the longest streak of any ex-Confederate state of Republicans not having won the state's top legal office.
Democrats headed to the March 5 gubernatorial primary include Chrelle Booker, Mike Morgan and Marcus Williams in addition to Stein.