2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

Last updated

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
Flag of North Carolina.svg
  2020 November 5, 20242028 
  Josh Stein (crop).jpg 3I3A3929 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Josh Stein Mark Robinson
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent Governor

Roy Cooper
Democratic



The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections. Incumbent Governor Roy Cooper is term-limited and can not seek re-election to a third consecutive term in office. This is the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2024 in a state Donald Trump won in 2020. Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024. [1]

Contents

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. However, its U.S. House delegation is evenly split between Republicans and Democrats, and both Democrats and Republicans each hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points. [2] [3]

The incumbent, Roy Cooper, was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points. [3] [4]

The 2024 election is expected to be competitive due to a variety of factors: North Carolina is a purple to slightly red state, the election is taking place in a presidential election year, and the seat is open due to term-limits facing the incumbent. The first Democrat to enter the race was Josh Stein, the current Attorney General. He was followed by recently-retired N.C. Supreme Court Justice Michael R. Morgan. Two Republicans who are currently serving in positions that are elected statewide have declared their candidacy: Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor, and Dale Folwell, the current State Treasurer. [5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

2024 North Carolina Democratic gubernatorial primary
Flag of North Carolina.svg
  2020 March 5, 2024 (2024-03-05)2028 
  Josh Stein (crop).jpg Michael R. Morgan of th NC Suprem Court(cropped).jpg
Candidate Josh Stein Michael R. Morgan
Popular vote476,44897,908
Percentage69.6%14.3%

 
CandidateChrelle BookerMarcus Williams
Popular vote45,69538,996
Percentage6.7%5.7%

North Carolina Governor Democratic Primary, 2024.svg
County results
Stein:     30-40%     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90%
Morgan:     40-50%     50-60%

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Stein
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Chrelle
Booker
Gary
Foxx
Michael
Morgan
Josh
Stein
Marcus
Williams
OtherUndecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024322 (LV)± 6.0%10%10%14%57%9%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%8%49%4% [lower-alpha 2] 39%
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%2%2%7%57%3%29%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%5%3%4%31%2%4%51%
Public Policy Polling (D) December 15–16, 2023556 (LV)± 4.2%3%1%5%56%4%32%
December 15, 2023Foxx joins the race
December 14, 2023Williams joins the race
November 2, 2023Booker joins the race
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%11%38%9%42%
Meredith College September 16–19, 2023308 (RV)± 3.5%11%33%10%46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Mandy
Cohen
Jeff
Jackson
Josh
Stein
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%18%12%22%9%39%

Results

Democratic primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Josh Stein 476,448 69.64
Democratic Michael R. Morgan 97,90814.31
Democratic Chrelle Booker45,6956.68
Democratic Marcus Williams38,9965.70
Democratic Gary Foxx25,1003.67
Total votes684,147 100.00

Republican primary

Candidates

2024 North Carolina Republican gubernatorial primary
Flag of North Carolina.svg
  2020 March 5, 2024 (2024-03-05)2028 
  3I3A3929 (cropped).jpg Dale Wiki.jpg 3x4.svg
Candidate Mark Robinson Dale Folwell Bill Graham
Popular vote663,917196,108163,757
Percentage64.8%19.2%16.0%

North Carolina Governor Republican Primary, 2024.svg
County results
Robinson:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90%

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Dale Folwell
Council of State officials
Newspapers
Bill Graham
U.S. senators
Mark Robinson
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
Newspapers

Debate

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Republican Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Dale Folwell Mark Walker Jesse Thomas
1Sep. 12, 2023 Wake County
Republican Party
Bill LuMaye YouTube PPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Dale
Folwell
Bill
Graham
Mark
Robinson
Jesse
Thomas
Mark
Walker
Andy
Wells
OtherUndecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024394 (LV)± 6.0%17%33%51%9%
Capen Analytics February 21, 202412,580 (LV)± 5.0%29%18%53%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%9%9%57%3% [lower-alpha 3] 22%
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%7%13%53%27%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%4%9%34%10%42%
Public Policy Polling (D) January 5–6, 2024619 (LV)± 3.9%7%15%55%24%
December 16, 2023Wells withdraws from the race
ECU Center for Survey Research November 29 – Dec 1, 2023445 (LV)± 5.4%7%8%34%3%49%
November 2, 2023Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%3%5%41%2%1%6%42%
October 25, 2023Walker withdraws from the race
October 18, 2023Graham joins the race
Cygnal [upper-alpha 2] October 8–9, 2023600 (LV)± 3.9%5%49%1%4%1%41%
Meredith College September 16–19, 2023350 (RV)± 3.5%3%34%3%7%3%6%44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Dale
Folwell
Pat
McCrory
Mark
Robinson
Thom
Tillis
Steve
Troxler
Mark
Walker
OtherUndecided
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%4%-44%--7%7%38%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 2] April 25–29, 2023707 (LV)± 4.4%4%-43%-9%8%-37%
The Differentiators (R) December 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%6%-60%----34%
-21%60%----19%
--58%--8%-34%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%4%-54%20%--5%17%

Results

Republican primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mark Robinson 663,917 64.8%
Republican Dale Folwell 196,10819.2%
Republican Bill Graham163,75716.0%
Total votes1,023,782 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022 [45]

Results

Results by county:
Ross
Ross--100%
Ross--80-90%
Ross--70-80%
Ross--60-70%
Ross--50-60%
Bray
Bray--100%
Bray--70-80%
Bray--60-70%
Bray--50-60%
Tie
Tie--50-60% North Carolina Governor Libertarian Primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
Ross
  •   Ross—100%
  •   Ross—80–90%
  •   Ross—70–80%
  •   Ross—60–70%
  •   Ross—50–60%
Bray
  •   Bray—100%
  •   Bray—70–80%
  •   Bray—60–70%
  •   Bray—50–60%
Tie
  •   Tie—50–60%
Libertarian primary results [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Mike Ross 2,898 59.49
Libertarian Shannon Bray1,97340.51
Total votes4,871 100

Green Party

Nominee

General election

Republican Robinson and Democrat Stein will face each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson has received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson has also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office. [46] Robinson has even received criticism from some Republicans, including U.S. Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson. [47]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [48] Lean DJuly 21, 2023
Inside Elections [49] TossupSeptember 1, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [50] TossupJuly 13, 2023
Elections Daily [51] TossupJuly 12, 2023

Endorsements

Endorsements in bold were made after the primary elections.

Josh Stein (D)
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Mark Robinson (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State senators
State representatives
Organizations
Newspapers
Declined to endorse
Statewide officials
U.S. senators

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Mark
Robinson (R)
Undecided
Meredith College April 11–17, 2024711 (LV)± 3.5%45%36%20%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] April 7–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%38%40%18%
Quinnipiac University April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%52%44%4%
HPU Survey Research Center March 22–30, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%37%34%29%
Marist College March 11–14, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.6%49%47%4%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 3] March 3–9, 2024598 (LV)± 4.9%44%42%14%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] March 6–7, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%44%17%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%42%43%15%
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%41%41%14%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%39%35%17%
ECU Center for Survey Research November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%40%44%16%
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%38%36%19%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] September 1–5, 2023914 (LV)± 3.6%38%42%20%
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%38%41%21%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 3.96%41%42%18%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 1] May 5–8, 2023802 (LV)± 3.9%43%46%11%
Public Policy Polling (D) March 2–3, 2023704 (RV)± 3.7%42%44%14%
Differentiators (R) [upper-alpha 4] January 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%42%42%16%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 1] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%44%42%14%
Meeting Street Insights (R) [upper-alpha 5] May 12–16, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%42%48%10%
Josh Stein vs. Mark Robinson vs. Mike Ross vs. Wayner Turner
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Mark
Robinson (R)
Mike
Ross (L)
Wayne
Turner (G)
Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%48%41%4%2%4%
Hypothetical polling
Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Dale
Folwell (R)
Undecided
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%42%31%27%
ECU Center for Survey Research November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%40%38%22%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 3.96%39%34%27%
Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Bill
Graham (R)
Undecided
ECU Center for Survey Research February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%40%35%25%
ECU Center for Survey Research November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%42%39%19%
Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Josh
Stein (D)
Mark
Walker (R)
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 3.96%39%37%24%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Generic
Democrat (D)
Generic
Republican (R)
OtherUndecided
High Point University February 16–23, 2024753 (LV)± 3.9%46%45%2% [lower-alpha 4] 7%

Results

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Josh Stein
Republican Mark Robinson
Libertarian Mike Ross
Green Wayne Turner
Total votes

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. "Would not vote" with 4%
  3. "Would not vote" with 3%
  4. "Another party's candidate" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 This poll was sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 This poll was sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  4. This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  5. This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

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  30. Robertson, Gary (March 25, 2023). "North Carolina treasurer running for governor in 2024". The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
  31. Solano, Christina (October 18, 2023). "North Carolina's race for governor grows with campaign announcement by Bill Graham". WXII-TV . Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  32. "Ex-health care executive ends bid for North Carolina governor, running now for secretary of state". Associated Press. November 2, 2023.
  33. Woodhouse, Dallas (October 25, 2023). "Mark Walker exits governor's race to seek new Triad-area congressional seat". Carolina Journal . Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  34. Griffin, Kevin (December 16, 2023). "Former state senator from Hickory declines to file for governor after announcing campaign". Hickory Daily Record . Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  35. "U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis talks openly on hot topics, career ambitions and his song playlist".
  36. 1 2 Fahlberg, Audrey (December 8, 2023). "Senator Thom Tillis Endorses Attorney Bill Graham in N.C. GOP Gov Primary, Dealing Blow to Frontrunner Mark Robinson". National Review .
  37. "Former North Carolina Gov. Jim Martin endorses Dale Folwell in governor's race". FOX8 WGHP. January 25, 2024. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  38. "Trump Pledges to Endorse Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor". U.S. News . June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  39. Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press . Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  40. 1 2 3 4 Bajpai, Avi (April 22, 2023). "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson officially launches his campaign for governor". News & Observer. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  41. NRA-PVF. "NRA's Political Victory Fund Endorses Mark Robinson for Governor with an "A+" Rating". NRA-PVF. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  42. @CPAC (January 16, 2024). "CPAC endorses Lieutenant Governor, Mark Robinson for Governor of North Carolina" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  43. 1 2 Hammer, John (February 27, 2024). "Rhino Endorsements In Republican Primary". The Rhino Times of Greensboro. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  44. Doyle, Steve (March 24, 2023). "Libertarian from Gaston County enters North Carolina governor's race". Fox 8. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  45. Doyle, Steve (May 25, 2023). "Shannon Bray becomes second Libertarian in race for North Carolina governor". WAVY News 10. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  46. "Republican Mark Robinson and Democrat Josh Stein will face off in North Carolina's governor race" . Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  47. "State treasurer declines to endorse fellow Republican for governor" . Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  48. "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  49. "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  50. "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  51. "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  52. "Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor".
  53. 1 2 "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Josh Stein and Jeff Jackson in North Carolina". Giffords. March 19, 2024. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  54. Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
  55. "Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements". WKU Public Radio | The Public Radio Service of Western Kentucky University. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
  56. Hubbard, Kathryn (August 30, 2023). "Gov. Roy Cooper endorses AG Josh Stein for NC governor". WNCN.
  57. "Democrat Josh Stein is running for North Carolina governor. But who else may be on the ballot? We have names" . Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  58. "NCAE Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in 2024". North Carolina Association of Educators. April 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  59. "PA PAC Endorses Candidates for the 2024 Primary Election". peoplesalliancepac.org. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  60. "NCLCV Conservation PAC endorses AG Josh Stein for Governor". March 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  61. "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in North Carolina". Reproductive Freedom for All. November 2, 2023. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  62. "Endorsements". Sierra Club . Retrieved February 6, 2024.
  63. "Trump Pledges to Endorse Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor". U.S. News . June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  64. Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press . Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  65. NRA-PVF. "NRA's Political Victory Fund Endorses Mark Robinson for Governor with an "A+" Rating". NRA-PVF. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
  66. @CPAC (January 16, 2024). "CPAC endorses Lieutenant Governor, Mark Robinson for Governor of North Carolina" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  67. Killian, Joe; Henkel, Clayton (April 2, 2024). "State treasurer declines to endorse fellow Republican for governor". NC Newsline. Retrieved April 13, 2024.
  68. 1 2 Schofield, Rob (April 11, 2024). "Troubled waters for Mark Robinson". NC Newsline. Retrieved April 21, 2024.

North Carolina Primary Results (2024)

Official campaign websites