2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

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2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
Flag of North Carolina.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout73.73% (Decrease2.svg1.62 pp)
  GOV 2025-01-06 Cabinet Swearing in-205- (cropped).jpg NC Lt Gov Mark Robinson 2022 (cropped).png
Nominee Josh Stein Mark Robinson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote3,069,4962,241,309
Percentage54.90%40.08%
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2024 North Carolina Gubernatorial election results map by congressional district.svg
NC Governor 2024 Precincts.svg
Stein:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Robinson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No votes
Governor before election

Roy Cooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Josh Stein
Democratic

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. It was held concurrently with the 2024 presidential election and other elections. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein won his first term in office, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson. He succeeded Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.

Contents

Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024. [1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.

Initially a tight race, Robinson's history of controversial statements and revelations of comments he made on a pornographic website led to Stein gaining a significant polling advantage. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8 percentage points, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980, as well as winning counties that had not voted Democratic since 2008 (Franklin), 2004 (Alamance, Brunswick, and Transylvania), and 1980 (Cabarrus, Henderson, and Jackson). Stein was also the only Democrat in 2024 to win a gubernatorial race in a state Donald Trump won in the concurrent presidential race. Robinson became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate since 1976 to not flip a county in the state.

Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He is the first Jewish governor of the state. [2] Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. [3] [4] According to exit polls, Stein won independent voters by a 23% margin, which further contributed to Robinson's defeat.

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won. [5] [6]

Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points. [6] [7]

The Democratic nominee was Josh Stein, the incumbent state attorney general. The Republican nominee was Mark Robinson, the incumbent lieutenant governor. [8]

The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson later became embroiled in numerous controversies after becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls. Stein won 37 counties and Robinson won 63. Of the three gubernatorial races that went blue in 2024, North Carolina went bluest in its overall margin, even though the other two were significantly more Democratic states. [9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Stein

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Chrelle
Booker		Gary
Foxx		Michael
Morgan		Josh
Stein		Marcus
Williams		OtherUndecided
High Point University [31] February 16–23, 2024322 (LV)± 6.0%10%10%14%57%9%––
Change Research (D) [32] [A] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%––8%49%–4% [b] 39%
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%2%2%7%57%3%–29%
Meredith College [34] January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%5%3%4%31%2%4% [c] 51%
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] December 15–16, 2023556 (LV)± 4.2%3%1%5%56%4%–32%
December 15, 2023Foxx joins the race
December 14, 2023Williams joins the race
November 2, 2023Booker joins the race
Meredith College [36] November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%––11%38%–7% [d] 44%
Meredith College [37] September 16–19, 2023308 (RV)± 3.5%––11%33%–10% [e] 46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Mandy
Cohen		Jeff
Jackson		Josh
Stein		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [38] [A] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%18%12%22%9% [f] 39%

Results

Results by county: Stein .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Stein--80-90% Stein--70-80% Stein--60-70% Stein--50-60% Stein--40-50% Stein--30-40% Morgan Morgan--50-60% Morgan--40-50% North Carolina Governor Democratic Primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
Stein
  •   Stein—80–90%
  •   Stein—70–80%
  •   Stein—60–70%
  •   Stein—50–60%
  •   Stein—40–50%
  •   Stein—30–40%
Morgan
  •   Morgan—50–60%
  •   Morgan—40–50%
Democratic primary results [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Josh Stein 479,026 69.60%
Democratic Michael R. Morgan 98,62714.33%
Democratic Chrelle Booker46,0456.69%
Democratic Marcus Williams39,2575.70%
Democratic Gary Foxx25,2833.67%
Total votes688,238 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Dale Folwell

Council of State officials

Newspapers

Bill Graham

U.S. senators

Mark Robinson

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Newspapers

Debate

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Republican Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Dale Folwell Mark Walker Jesse Thomas
1September 12, 2023 Wake County
Republican Party		Bill LuMaye YouTube PPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Dale
Folwell		Bill
Graham		Mark
Robinson		Jesse
Thomas		Mark
Walker		Andy
Wells		OtherUndecided
High Point University [31] February 16–23, 2024394 (LV)± 6.0%17%33%51%9%––––
Capen Analytics (R) [55] February 21, 202412,580 (LV)± 5.0%29%18%53%–––––
Change Research (D) [32] [A] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%9%9%57%–––3% [g] 22%
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%7%13%53%––––27%
Meredith College [34] January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%4%9%34%–––10% [e] 42%
Public Policy Polling (D) [56] January 5–6, 2024619 (LV)± 3.9%7%15%55%––––24%
December 16, 2023Wells withdraws from the race
East Carolina University [57] November 29 – December 1, 2023445 (LV)± 5.4%7%8%34%––3%–49%
November 2, 2023Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College [36] November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%3%5%41%2%–1%6% [h] 42%
October 25, 2023Walker withdraws from the race
October 18, 2023Graham joins the race
Cygnal (R) [58] [B] October 8–9, 2023600 (LV)± 3.9%5%–49%1%4%1%–41%
Meredith College [37] September 16–19, 2023350 (RV)± 3.5%3%–34%3%7%3%6% [h] 44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Dale
Folwell		Pat
McCrory		Mark
Robinson		Thom
Tillis		Steve
Troxler		Mark
Walker		OtherUndecided
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [59] June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%4%–44%––7%7% [d] 38%
SurveyUSA [60] [B] April 25–29, 2023707 (LV)± 4.4%4%–43%–9%8%–37%
Differentiators (R) [61] December 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%6%–60%––––34%
–21%60%––––19%
––58%––8%–34%
Public Policy Polling (D) [38] [A] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%4%–54%20%––5% [i] 17%

Results

Results by county: Robinson Robinson--80-90% Robinson--70-80% Robinson--60-70% Robinson--50-60% Robinson--40-50% North Carolina Governor Republican Primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
Robinson
  •   Robinson—80–90%
  •   Robinson—70–80%
  •   Robinson—60–70%
  •   Robinson—50–60%
  •   Robinson—40–50%
Republican primary results [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mark Robinson 666,504 64.83%
Republican Dale Folwell 196,95519.16%
Republican Bill Graham164,57216.01%
Total votes1,028,031 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022 [63]

Results

Results by county: Ross Ross--100% Ross--80-90% Ross--70-80% Ross--60-70% Ross--50-60% Bray Bray--100% Bray--70-80% Bray--60-70% Bray--50-60% Tie Tie--50% North Carolina Governor Libertarian Primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
  Ross
  •   Ross—100%
  •   Ross—80–90%
  •   Ross—70–80%
  •   Ross—60–70%
  •   Ross—50–60%
  Bray
  •   Bray—100%
  •   Bray—70–80%
  •   Bray—60–70%
  •   Bray—50–60%
  Tie
  •   Tie—50%
Libertarian primary results [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Mike Ross 2,910 59.45%
Libertarian Shannon Bray1,98540.55%
Total votes4,895 100.0%

Green Party

Nominee

Constitution Party

Nominee

General election

Campaign

Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson had also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial. [65] Robinson also received criticism from some Republicans considered to be moderate, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson. [66] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him. [67]

Calls for Robinson to drop out

On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012. [68] [69] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery. [70] The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance. [71] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race. [72] His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside". [69] Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts". [73] That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married. [74] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20. [75]

Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic. [76] [9] [77] [78]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [77] Likely DSeptember 20, 2024
Inside Elections [79] Likely DSeptember 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [80] Likely DSeptember 19, 2024
RCP [81] Likely DSeptember 28, 2024
Fox News [82] Likely DSeptember 25, 2024
Elections Daily [83] Safe DSeptember 19, 2024
CNalysis [78] Solid DOctober 15, 2024
Split Ticket [84] Safe DOctober 19, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Josh Stein (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

U.S. senators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Josh Stein (D)$84,064,178$82,450,647$1,901,820
Mark Robinson (R)$20,012,299$19,799,956$250,001
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections [103]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Robinson (R)		Undecided
[j] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [104] October 16 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.1%38.8%8.1%Stein +14.3%
270ToWin [105] October 24 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.1%38.0%8.9%Stein +15.1%
The Hill/DDHQ [106] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.4%38.8%7.8%Stein +14.6%
Average53.2%38.5%8.2%Stein +14.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Robinson (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [107] November 3–4, 20241,219 (LV)± 3.0%54%38%4% [k] 4%
AtlasIntel [108] November 1–2, 20241,310 (LV)± 3.0%52%41%4% [k] 3%
Emerson College [109] [C] October 30 – November 2, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%52%40%4%4%
New York Times/Siena College [110] October 28 – November 2, 20241,010 (LV)± 3.6%56%38%–5%
1,010 (RV)± 3.6%56%36%–7%
Morning Consult [111] October 23 – November 1, 20241,056 (LV)± 3.0%52%36%–12%
ActiVote [112] October 17–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%––
AtlasIntel [113] October 27–30, 20241,373 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%4% [k] 2%
AtlasIntel [114] October 25–29, 20241,665 (LV)± 3.0%54%39%4% [k] 4%
East Carolina University [115] October 24–29, 20241,250 (LV)± 3.0%55%40%5% [l] –
Fox News [116] October 24–28, 2024872 (LV)± 3.0%57%41%–2%
1,113 (RV)± 3.0%59%38%1%2%
CNN/SSRS [117] October 23–28, 2024750 (LV)± 4.5%53%37%10% [m] 1%
SurveyUSA [118] [D] October 23–26, 2024853 (LV)± 4.1%52%37%1%10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [119] October 16–23, 2024650 (LV)± 4.2%48%36%3% [n] 12%
Emerson College [120] October 21–22, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%51%39%4% [c] 6%
Marist College [121] October 17–22, 20241,226 (LV)± 3.6%55%41%3% [o] 2%
1,410 (RV)± 3.3%55%40%3% [o] 2%
SoCal Strategies (R) [122] [E] October 20–21, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%55%40%–5%
SurveyUSA [123] [F] October 17–20, 20241,164 (RV)± 3.7%50%34%–15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [124] [G] October 16–18, 2024843 (LV)± 3.1%45%37%6% [p] 10%
AtlasIntel [125] October 12–17, 20241,674 (LV)± 2.0%54%39%3% [q] 4%
Elon University/YouGov [126] October 10–17, 2024800 (RV)± 4.0%52%31%7% [r] 10%
Morning Consult [111] October 6–15, 20241,072 (LV)± 3.0%54%32%4%10%
Cygnal (R) [127] [H] October 12–14, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%36%4% [s] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [128] [G] October 12–14, 2024620 (LV)± 3.6%45%38%8% [t] 9%
Quinnipiac University [129] October 10–14, 20241,031 (LV)± 3.1%54%42%2% [u] 2%
52%40%5% [v] 2%
Emerson College [130] [I] October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%34%5% [i] 11%
ActiVote [131] September 5 – October 5, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56.5%43.5%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [132] [G] September 27 – October 2, 2024753 (LV)± 3.3%46%36%4% [w] 14%
Quinnipiac University [133] September 25–29, 2024953 (LV)± 3.2%53%41%2% [x] 4%
52%39%6% [y] 3%
The Washington Post [134] September 25–29, 20241,001 (LV)± 3.5%54%38%2% [z] 6%
1,001 (RV)± 3.5%53%38%2% [z] 7%
High Point University [135] September 20–29, 2024589 (LV)± 4.0%51%34%3%11%
814 (RV)± 3.4%51%32%3%14%
Emerson College [136] [J] September 27–28, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%52%33%4% [c] 12%
RMG Research [137] [K] September 25–27, 2024780 (LV)± 3.5%53% [aa] 38%1% [ab] 8%
50%36%5% [ac] 9%
East Carolina University [138] September 23–26, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%50%33%5% [ad] 13%
AtlasIntel [139] September 20–25, 20241,173 (LV)± 3.0%54%38%3% [ae] 5%
CNN/SSRS [140] September 20–25, 2024931 (LV)± 3.9%53%36%11% [af] –
BSG (R)/Global Strategy Group (D) [141] [L] September 19–25, 2024411 (LV)–53%33%7% [ag] 8%
59%35%–6%
Fox News [142] September 20–24, 2024787 (LV)± 3.5%56%41%1% [ah] 3%
991 (RV)± 3.0%56%40%2% [ai] 3%
Marist College [143] September 19–24, 20241,507 (RV)± 3.5%54%42%1% [aj] 3%
1,348 (LV)± 3.7%54%43%1% [aj] 2%
September 19, 2024CNN Reports that Mark Robinson made disturbing comments on an online forum years ago.
New York Times/Siena College [144] September 17–21, 2024682 (LV)± 4.2%47%37%–16%
682 (RV)± 4.2%47%36%–17%
Meredith College [145] September 18–20, 2024802 (LV)± 3.5%50%40%5% [ak] 9%
Victory Insights (R) [146] September 16–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%–11%
Emerson College [147] [I] September 15–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%40%2% [al] 10%
Morning Consult [111] September 11–18, 20241,314 (LV)± 2.7%50%37%1%12%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [148] [M] September 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%42%–6%
Cygnal (R) [149] [H] September 15–16, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%39%2% [am] 13%
Elon University/YouGov [150] September 4–13, 2024800 (RV)± 3.74%49%35%3%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [151] [G] September 6–9, 2024495 (LV)± 3.8%42%33%3% [an] 23%
Quinnipiac University [152] September 4–8, 2024940 (LV)± 3.2%51%41%5% [ao] 4%
Morning Consult [111] August 30 – September 8, 20241,369 (LV)± 3.0%50%37%2% [al] 11%
SurveyUSA [153] [D] September 4–7, 2024676 (LV)± 4.9%51%37%–12%
Florida Atlantic University/
Mainstreet Research [154] 		September 5–6, 2024692 (RV)± 3.7%48%38%–14%
619 (LV)± 3.7%50%39%–11%
East Carolina University [155] August 26–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.0%47%41%1% [ap] 11%
Emerson College [156] [I] August 25–28, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%47%41%3% [aq] 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [157] [G] August 25–28, 2024812 (LV)± 3.18%44%40%4% [ar] 13%
SoCal Strategies (R) [158] [E] August 26–27, 2024612 (LV)–47%37%–16%
Fox News [159] August 23–26, 20241,026 (RV)± 3.0%54%43%2% [ai] 1%
ActiVote [160] July 26 – August 26, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––
SurveyUSA [161] [F] August 19–21, 20241,053 (RV)± 4.0%48%34%–18%
941 (LV)± 4.0%50%36%–14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [162] [G] August 12–15, 2024601 (LV)± 3.7%45%39%3% [as] 13%
The New York Times/Siena College [163] August 9–14, 2024655 (RV)± 4.2%48%38%–14%
655 (LV)± 4.2%49%39%–12%
YouGov Blue (D) [164] [A] August 5–9, 2024802 (RV)± 3.9%46%36%6% [at] 13%
Cygnal (R) [165] August 4–5, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%43%38%4% [au] 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [166] July 31 – August 3, 2024714 (LV)–43%38%3% [av] 16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [167] July 22–24, 2024586 (LV)–38%34%5% [aw] 23%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D) [168] [N] July 19–20, 2024573 (RV)–48%42%–10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [169] [G] July 16–18, 2024461 (LV)± 4.0%37%36%4% [ax] 23%
Expedition Strategies [170] [O] June 24 – July 8, 2024284 (LV)–48%41%–11%
Spry Strategies (R) [171] June 7–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%43%–18%
East Carolina University [172] May 31 – June 3, 20241,332 (LV)± 3.1%44%43%–13%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [173] [P] May 29 – June 2, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%44%–14%
Change Research (D) [174] [A] May 13–18, 2024835 (LV)± 3.8%44%43%–13%
High Point University [175] May 2–9, 2024804 (RV)± 3.2%34%39%–27%
1,002 (A)± 3.2%30%35%–35%
Cygnal (R) [176] [H] May 4–5, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%39%5% [ay] 17%
Emerson College [177] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%42%5% [i] 12%
Meeting Street Insights (R) [178] [Q] April 25–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%44%37%6% [az] 13%
Meredith College [179] April 11–17, 2024711 (LV)± 3.5%45%36%–20%
Cygnal (R) [180] [H] April 7–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%38%40%–18%
Quinnipiac University [181] April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%52%44%2% [x] 3%
48%41%7% [ba] 3%
High Point University [182] March 22–30, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%37%34%–29%
Marist College [183] March 11–14, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.6%49%47%–4%
SurveyUSA [184] [D] March 3–9, 2024598 (LV)± 4.9%44%42%–14%
Cygnal (R) [185] [B] March 6–7, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%44%–17%
Change Research (D) [32] [A] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%42%43%–15%
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%41%41%–14%
Meredith College [34] January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%39%35%–17%
East Carolina University [57] November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%40%44%–16%
Meredith College [36] November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%38%36%–19%
Change Research (D) [186] [A] September 1–5, 2023914 (LV)± 3.6%38%42%–20%
Opinion Diagnostics (R) [59] June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%38%41%–21%
Cygnal (R) [187] [B] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 4.0%41%42%–18%
Change Research (D) [188] [A] May 5–8, 2023802 (LV)± 3.9%43%46%1% [ab] 10%
Public Policy Polling (D) [189] [A] March 2–3, 2023704 (RV)± 3.7%42%44%–14%
Differentiator Data (R) [190] [R] January 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%42%42%–16%
Public Policy Polling (D) [38] [A] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%44%42%–14%
Meeting Street Insights (R) [191] [S] May 12–16, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%42%48%–10%
Hypothetical polling

Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Dale
Folwell (R)		Undecided
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%42%31%27%
East Carolina University [57] November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%40%38%22%
Cygnal (R) [187] [B] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 4.0%39%34%27%

Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Bill
Graham (R)		Undecided
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%40%35%25%
East Carolina University [57] November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%42%39%19%

Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Walker (R)		Undecided
Cygnal (R) [187] [B] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 4.0%39%37%24%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		OtherUndecided
High Point University [31] February 16–23, 2024753 (LV)± 3.9%46%45%2% [bb] 7%

Results

2024 NC Gubernatorial election swing.svg
2024 NC Gubernatorial election trend.svg
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election [192]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Josh Stein 3,069,496 54.90% +3.38%
Republican Mark Robinson 2,241,30940.08%–6.93%
Libertarian Mike Ross176,3923.15%+2.05%
Constitution Vinny Smith54,7380.98%+0.60%
Green Wayne Turner49,6120.89%N/A
Total votes5,591,547 100.0%
Democratic hold

By congressional district

Stein won 12 of 14 congressional districts, including eight that elected Republican representatives, and nine that voted for Donald Trump. [193]

DistrictSteinRobinsonRepresentativePresidential Result
1st 53%44% Don Davis Trump
2nd 73%21% Deborah Ross Harris
3rd 46%49% Greg Murphy Trump
4th 78%18% Valerie Foushee Harris
5th 48%47% Virginia Foxx Trump
6th 49%46% Addison McDowell Trump
7th 51%43% David Rouzer Trump
8th 47%48% Mark Harris Trump
9th 49%46% Richard Hudson Trump
10th 48%46% Pat Harrigan Trump
11th 51%44% Chuck Edwards Trump
12th 77%18% Alma Adams Harris
13th 49%45% Brad Knott Trump
14th 49%45% Tim Moore Trump

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Voter demographics

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election (CNN) [194]
Demographic subgroupSteinRobinson% of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 96221
Moderates 712340
Conservatives 158039
Party
Democrats 96232
Republicans 138334
Independents 583535
Gender
Men484748
Women613452
Age
18–24 years old59309
25–29 years old63325
30–39 years old593815
40–49 years old583616
50–64 years old494729
65 and older544225
Race/ethnicity
White 464969
Black 85819
Latino 53398
Asian N/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/A2
Gender by race
White men425534
White women514436
Black men75138
Black women93411
Latino men39514
Latino women67264
Other racial/ethnic groups55414
White born-again or evangelical Christian?
Yes227431
No712469
Education
Never attended college 425016
Some college education544225
Associate degree 435217
Bachelor's degree 643325
Postgraduate 692616
Education by race
White college graduates623431
White no college degree346238
Non-white college graduates762110
Non-white no college degree721920
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees672816
White women without college degrees385820
White men with college degrees574015
White men without college degrees296719
Non-white742031
Area type
Urban742028
Suburban484753
Rural454920

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Would not vote" with 4%
  3. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 4%
  4. 1 2 "Someone else" with 7%
  5. 1 2 "Someone else" with 10%
  6. ↑ "Someone else" with 9%
  7. ↑ "Would not vote" with 3%
  8. 1 2 "Someone else" with 6%
  9. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 5%
  10. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. 1 2 3 4 "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
  12. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%
  13. ↑ "Neither" with 6%; "Other" with 3%
  14. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Smith (C) with 1%
  15. 1 2 "Another party's candidate" with 3%
  16. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  17. ↑ "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  18. ↑ "Other" with 4%; "None" with 3%
  19. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with <1%
  20. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  21. ↑ "Refused" with 2%
  22. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) and Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  23. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  24. 1 2 "Wouldn't Vote" and "Refused" with 1%
  25. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%, Smith (C), "Wouldn't Vote", and "Refused" with 1%
  26. 1 2 "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  27. ↑ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  28. 1 2 "Would not vote" with 1%
  29. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 4%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  30. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%; Smith (C), "Other" with 1%
  31. ↑ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  32. ↑ "Neither" with 8%; "Other" with 3%
  33. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  34. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  35. 1 2 "Other" with 1% and "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  36. 1 2 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  37. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G), Smith (C), and "Someone else" with 1%
  38. 1 2 "Someone else" with 2%
  39. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%
  40. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  41. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  42. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G), Smith (C), "Write-in candidate" each with <1%
  43. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  44. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Others" with 1%
  45. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  46. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Undecided Third Party" with 4%
  47. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%
  48. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  49. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  50. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  51. ↑ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 1%
  52. ↑ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%
  53. ↑ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  54. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Nexstar
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, which supports Republican candidates.
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by High Point University
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  8. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Carolina Journal
  9. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  10. ↑ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  11. ↑ Poll sponsored by Napolitan Institute
  12. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  13. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP
  14. ↑ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
  15. ↑ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  16. ↑ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  17. ↑ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
  18. ↑ Poll sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  19. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

References

  1. ↑ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Josh Stein defeats Mark Robinson to become North Carolina's first Jewish governor". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  3. ↑ "Democrats Actually Had Quite a Good Night in North Carolina". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  4. ↑ "North Carolina Democrats find electoral success further down the ballot and hope to build on it". Associated Press. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Republican Ted Budd wins North Carolina's U.S. Senate race". AP NEWS. November 8, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. 1 2 "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  7. ↑ "North Carolina Official General Election Results". North Carolina State Board of Elections. November 8, 2016. Retrieved January 5, 2017.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Schneider, Elena (January 18, 2023). "North Carolina AG Josh Stein launches bid for governor". Politico. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  9. 1 2 Cunningham, Eric (September 19, 2024). "Ratings Update: Mark Robinson Scandals Shift North Carolina Gubernatorial Race Shifts to Safe Democratic". Elections Daily. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  10. ↑ Langston, Grant (December 7, 2023). "Tryon councilwoman eyes North Carolina governor seat". Tryon Daily Bulletin . Retrieved December 9, 2023.
  11. 1 2 Mikkelsen, Emily; Melrose, Justyn (December 15, 2023). "Election 2024 North Carolina: These are the candidates who filed for races impacting the Piedmont Triad". WGHP . Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  12. ↑ Schoenbaum, Hannah (September 12, 2023). "Former North Carolina justice enters Democratic primary for governor in 2024". Associated Press News .
  13. ↑ Wooten, Alan (December 14, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein, Libertarian Shannon Bray file for North Carolina governor race". Jacksonville Daily News . Retrieved January 19, 2024. Democrats headed to the March 5 gubernatorial primary include Chrelle Booker, Mike Morgan and Marcus Williams in addition to Stein.
  14. 1 2 3 4 5 Doyle, Steve (November 15, 2022). "Who will run to replace North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper? Here are 6 possibilities". FOX8 WGHP. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
  15. 1 2 3 "North Carolina AG Josh Stein running for governor in 2024". wcnc.com. January 18, 2023.
  16. 1 2 3 Doyle, Steve (January 18, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein is running for North Carolina governor. But who else may be on the ballot? We have names". FOX8.
  17. 1 2 Mills, Thomas (January 18, 2023). "Stein Kicks Off the 2024 Cycle". PoliticsNC. Archived from the original on January 18, 2023. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  18. ↑ Martin, Emmy; Horton, Ethan E. (January 18, 2023). "Josh Stein, NC's attorney general, announces his bid for governor". The Daily Tar Heel . Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  19. ↑ Singer, Jeff (January 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 1/20".
  20. ↑ "Democratic NC Attorney General Josh Stein to run for governor". January 18, 2023.
  21. ↑ Hubbard, Kathryn (August 30, 2023). "Gov. Roy Cooper endorses AG Josh Stein for NC governor". WNCN.
  22. ↑ Chi-Sing, Haley (January 18, 2023). "NC Democrat AG Stein announces run for governor, immediately slams Lt Gov Robinson". Fox News. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  23. 1 2 "NextGen PAC Endorses North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  24. ↑ McMillan, MaryBe (June 8, 2023). "North Carolina AFL-CIO Endorses Josh Stein for Governor". NC State AFL-CIO. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
  25. ↑ "NCAE Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in 2024". North Carolina Association of Educators. April 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  26. ↑ "End Citizens United / Let America Vote Endorses Josh Stein for North Carolina Governor". End Citizens United. May 31, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  27. ↑ "NCLCV Conservation PAC endorses AG Josh Stein for Governor". March 1, 2023. Retrieved August 4, 2023.
  28. ↑ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Attorney General Josh Stein for Governor in North Carolina". Reproductive Freedom for All. November 2, 2023. Archived from the original on November 2, 2023. Retrieved November 2, 2023.
  29. ↑ "Endorsements". Sierra Club . Retrieved February 6, 2024.
  30. 1 2 "NC governor endorsements: Our choices in the Democratic and GOP primaries". The Charlotte Observer . February 18, 2024.
  31. 1 2 3 "HPU Poll: North Carolina Presidential and Gubernatorial Primaries". High Point University. March 1, 2024. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  32. 1 2 3 "The Carolina Forward February Poll". Carolina Forward. February 26, 2024. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  33. 1 2 3 4 5 Francia, Peter; Morris, Jonathan (February 16, 2024). "Mark Robinson and Josh Stein Clear Favorites to win Nominations in Primary Elections for Governor; Likely General Election Matchup Tied". ECU Center for Survey Research. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  34. 1 2 3 "Meredith Poll - February 2024" (PDF). Meredith College. February 5, 2024. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  35. ↑ "Stein leads by more than 50 points in primary". Public Policy Polling. December 18, 2023. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  36. 1 2 3 "An in-depth examination of North Carolina voter attitudes on important current issues" (PDF). Meredith College. November 5, 2023. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  37. 1 2 "Meredith Poll: September 2023" (PDF). Meredith College. September 25, 2023. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  38. 1 2 3 "A Preview of What's to Come in 2024". Carolina Forward. November 28, 2022. Retrieved April 16, 2025.
  39. 1 2 3 "03/05/2024 OFFICIAL PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections . Retrieved March 6, 2024.
  40. 1 2 3 4 Mikkelsen, Emily; Stamps, Brayden (April 22, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson announces run for governor at cloudy Ace Speedway rally". Fox 8. Archived from the original on November 12, 2024. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  41. ↑ Robertson, Gary (March 25, 2023). "North Carolina treasurer running for governor in 2024". The Seattle Times. Retrieved March 25, 2023.
  42. ↑ Solano, Christina (October 18, 2023). "North Carolina's race for governor grows with campaign announcement by Bill Graham". WXII-TV . Retrieved October 18, 2023.
  43. ↑ "Ex-health care executive ends bid for North Carolina governor, running now for secretary of state". Associated Press News . November 2, 2023.
  44. ↑ Woodhouse, Dallas (October 25, 2023). "Mark Walker exits governor's race to seek new Triad-area congressional seat". Carolina Journal . Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  45. ↑ Griffin, Kevin (December 16, 2023). "Former state senator from Hickory declines to file for governor after announcing campaign". Hickory Daily Record . Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  46. ↑ Casts, Pocket. "U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis talks openly on hot topics, career ambitions and his song playlist - Tying It Together with Tim Boyum". Pocket Casts.
  47. 1 2 Fahlberg, Audrey (December 8, 2023). "Senator Thom Tillis Endorses Attorney Bill Graham in N.C. GOP Gov Primary, Dealing Blow to Frontrunner Mark Robinson". National Review .
  48. ↑ "Former North Carolina Gov. Jim Martin endorses Dale Folwell in governor's race". FOX8 WGHP. January 25, 2024. Archived from the original on January 25, 2024. Retrieved January 25, 2024.
  49. ↑ "Trump Pledges to Endorse Mark Robinson for North Carolina Governor". U.S. News . June 10, 2023. Retrieved June 12, 2023.
  50. ↑ Robertson, Gary D. (April 22, 2023). "Conservative Robinson joins race for N. Carolina governor". Associated Press News . Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  51. 1 2 Bajpai, Avi (April 22, 2023). "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson officially launches his campaign for governor". News & Observer. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
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  62. ↑ Doyle, Steve (March 24, 2023). "Libertarian from Gaston County enters North Carolina governor's race". Fox 8. Archived from the original on April 22, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
  63. ↑ Doyle, Steve (May 25, 2023). "Shannon Bray becomes second Libertarian in race for North Carolina governor". WAVY News 10. Retrieved May 31, 2023.
  64. ↑ Zehnder, Katherine (July 18, 2024). "Constitution Party candidates file for November ballot". Carolina Journal . Retrieved July 25, 2024.
  65. ↑ "Republican Mark Robinson and Democrat Josh Stein will face off in North Carolina's governor race". NBC News . March 6, 2024. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  66. ↑ "State treasurer declines to endorse fellow Republican for governor". April 2, 2024. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  67. ↑ "Josh Stein won't debate Mark Robinson after lieutenant governor posts X video calling for one". September 17, 2024. Retrieved September 7, 2024.
  68. ↑ Kaczynski, Andrew; Steck, Em (September 19, 2024). "Mark Robinson, NC GOP nominee for governor, called himself a 'black NAZI!,' supported slavery in past comments made on porn forum". CNN . Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  69. 1 2 "NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson says 'tabloid lies' won't force him out of governor's race". The News & Observer. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
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  71. ↑ Staff, CJ (September 19, 2024). "Robinson under pressure to withdraw from gubernatorial race". Carolina Journal. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  72. ↑ WRAL Staff (September 19, 2024). "Republican Mark Robinson facing pressure to suspend gubernatorial campaign". WRAL. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  73. ↑ "Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson under pressure to drop out of NC gubernatorial race". CBS 17. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  74. ↑ Allison, Natalie (September 19, 2024). "Email address belonging to Mark Robinson found on Ashley Madison". Politico. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  75. ↑ Oladipo, Gloria (September 20, 2024). "Mark Robinson to stay in North Carolina race despite revelation of offensive comments". The Guardian . Retrieved September 20, 2024.
  76. ↑ Gans, Jared (September 19, 2024). "Robinson says he's staying in NC governor's race after bombshell CNN report". The Hill. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
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  89. ↑ Bacharier, Galen (September 30, 2024). "Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore hit the campaign trail in North Carolina • NC Newsline". NC Newsline. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
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