2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election

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2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election
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  Josh Stein -18 - 53934613418 (2).jpg NC Lt Gov Mark Robinson 2022 (cropped).png
Nominee Josh Stein Mark Robinson
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote3,069,4962,241,309
Percentage54.90%40.08%
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
NC Governor 2024.svg
Stein:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Robinson:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Roy Cooper
Democratic

Elected Governor

Josh Stein
Democratic

The 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of North Carolina. Democratic state attorney general Josh Stein won his first term in office, defeating Republican lieutenant governor Mark Robinson. He will succeed Democratic incumbent Roy Cooper, who was term-limited.

Contents

Primary elections took place on March 5, 2024. [1] Stein won the Democratic nomination with 70% of the vote over former state Supreme Court justice Michael R. Morgan and Robinson won the Republican nomination with 65% of the vote over state treasurer Dale Folwell.

The race was initially competitive, with Stein holding a narrow lead in part due to Robinson's history of controversial statements. After Robinson was linked to disturbing comments on a pornographic website less than two months before the election, Stein gained a significant polling advantage that held for the remainder of the race. Stein went on to win the election by 14.8%, the largest margin for a gubernatorial candidate in North Carolina since Jim Hunt in 1980.

Stein received more than three million votes, the most of any candidate in the history of statewide elections in North Carolina. He will also be the first Jewish governor of the state. [2] Analysts have credited Stein's large margin of victory with helping down-ballot Democrats in concurrent elections. [3] [4] Robinson's 40.08% is Worst Showing for any repubican nominee since 1980.

Background

A typical swing state, North Carolina is considered to be a purple to slightly red southern state at the federal level. Both U.S. senators from the state are members of the Republican Party. Democrats and Republicans both hold multiple statewide offices in North Carolina. In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump carried North Carolina by 1.34 percentage points, the smallest margin among the states he won. [5] [6]

Incumbent Roy Cooper was first elected in 2016, defeating then-incumbent governor Pat McCrory by about 0.2 points. Cooper was re-elected in 2020 by 4.5 percentage points. [6] [7]

The Democratic nominee is Josh Stein, the current state attorney general. The Republican nominee is Mark Robinson, the current lieutenant governor. [8]

The 2024 election was initially expected to be competitive due to the state's nearly even to slightly right-leaning partisan lean, the concurrent presidential election, and the seat being open due to term limits. However, Robinson had become embroiled in numerous controversies since becoming the nominee, allowing Stein to open up a large and consistent lead in polls. [9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Josh Stein

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Chrelle
Booker		Gary
Foxx		Michael
Morgan		Josh
Stein		Marcus
Williams		OtherUndecided
High Point University [31] February 16–23, 2024322 (LV)± 6.0%10%10%14%57%9%––
Change Research (D) [32] [A] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%––8%49%–4% [b] 39%
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%2%2%7%57%3%–29%
Meredith College [34] January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%5%3%4%31%2%4%51%
Public Policy Polling (D) [35] December 15–16, 2023556 (LV)± 4.2%3%1%5%56%4%–32%
December 15, 2023Foxx joins the race
December 14, 2023Williams joins the race
November 2, 2023Booker joins the race
Meredith College [36] November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%––11%38%–9%42%
Meredith College [37] September 16–19, 2023308 (RV)± 3.5%––11%33%–10%46%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Mandy
Cohen		Jeff
Jackson		Josh
Stein		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [38] [A] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%18%12%22%9%39%

Results

Results by county: Stein .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Stein--80-90% Stein--70-80% Stein--60-70% Stein--50-60% Stein--40-50% Stein--30-40% Morgan Morgan--50-60% Morgan--40-50% North Carolina Governor Democratic Primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
Stein
  •   Stein—80–90%
  •   Stein—70–80%
  •   Stein—60–70%
  •   Stein—50–60%
  •   Stein—40–50%
  •   Stein—30–40%
Morgan
  •   Morgan—50–60%
  •   Morgan—40–50%
Democratic primary results [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Josh Stein 479,026 69.60%
Democratic Michael R. Morgan 98,62714.33%
Democratic Chrelle Booker46,0456.69%
Democratic Marcus Williams39,2575.70%
Democratic Gary Foxx25,2833.67%
Total votes688,238 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Dale Folwell

Council of State officials

Newspapers

Bill Graham

U.S. senators

Mark Robinson

Executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Newspapers

Debate

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election Republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Republican Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Dale Folwell Mark Walker Jesse Thomas
1September 12, 2023 Wake County
Republican Party		Bill LuMaye YouTube PPP

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Dale
Folwell		Bill
Graham		Mark
Robinson		Jesse
Thomas		Mark
Walker		Andy
Wells		OtherUndecided
High Point University [31] February 16–23, 2024394 (LV)± 6.0%17%33%51%9%––––
Capen Analytics [55] February 21, 202412,580 (LV)± 5.0%29%18%53%–––––
Change Research (D) [32] [A] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%9%9%57%–––3% [c] 22%
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%7%13%53%––––27%
Meredith College [34] January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%4%9%34%–––10%42%
Public Policy Polling (D) [56] January 5–6, 2024619 (LV)± 3.9%7%15%55%––––24%
December 16, 2023Wells withdraws from the race
East Carolina University [57] November 29 – December 1, 2023445 (LV)± 5.4%7%8%34%––3%–49%
November 2, 2023Thomas withdraws from the race
Meredith College [36] November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%3%5%41%2%–1%6%42%
October 25, 2023Walker withdraws from the race
October 18, 2023Graham joins the race
Cygnal [58] [B] October 8–9, 2023600 (LV)± 3.9%5%–49%1%4%1%–41%
Meredith College [37] September 16–19, 2023350 (RV)± 3.5%3%–34%3%7%3%6%44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Dale
Folwell		Pat
McCrory		Mark
Robinson		Thom
Tillis		Steve
Troxler		Mark
Walker		OtherUndecided
Opinion Diagnostics [59] June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%4%-44%--7%7%38%
SurveyUSA [60] [B] April 25–29, 2023707 (LV)± 4.4%4%-43%-9%8%-37%
The Differentiators (R) [61] December 12, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%6%-60%----34%
-21%60%----19%
--58%--8%-34%
Public Policy Polling (D) [38] [A] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%4%-54%20%--5%17%

Results

Results by county: Robinson Robinson--80-90% Robinson--70-80% Robinson--60-70% Robinson--50-60% Robinson--40-50% North Carolina Governor Republican Primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
Robinson
  •   Robinson—80–90%
  •   Robinson—70–80%
  •   Robinson—60–70%
  •   Robinson—50–60%
  •   Robinson—40–50%
Republican primary results [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mark Robinson 666,504 64.83%
Republican Dale Folwell 196,95519.16%
Republican Bill Graham164,57216.01%
Total votes1,028,031 100.0%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Shannon Bray, cybersecurity professional and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 and 2022 [63]

Results

Results by county: Ross Ross--100% Ross--80-90% Ross--70-80% Ross--60-70% Ross--50-60% Bray Bray--100% Bray--70-80% Bray--60-70% Bray--50-60% Tie Tie--50-60% North Carolina Governor Libertarian Primary, 2024.svg
Results by county:
  Ross
  •   Ross—100%
  •   Ross—80–90%
  •   Ross—70–80%
  •   Ross—60–70%
  •   Ross—50–60%
  Bray
  •   Bray—100%
  •   Bray—70–80%
  •   Bray—60–70%
  •   Bray—50–60%
  Tie
  •   Tie—50–60%
Libertarian primary results [39]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Mike Ross 2,910 59.45%
Libertarian Shannon Bray1,98540.55%
Total votes4,895 100.0%

Green Party

Nominee

Constitution Party

Nominee

General election

Campaign

Stein and Robinson faced each other in the general election. With the backing of former President Donald Trump, Robinson has received heavy criticism from Democrats over statements on abortion rights, LGBTQ rights, and education. Robinson has also made a series of controversial statements before and after taking public office, including engaging in Holocaust denial. [65] Robinson has also received criticism from some moderate Republicans, including Senator Thom Tillis and primary opponent Dale Folwell, both of whom declined to endorse Robinson. [66] On September 17, Stein refused any potential debates with Robinson following a challenge from him. [67]

Calls for Robinson to drop out

On September 19, CNN released a story detailing racist, antisemitic, misogynistic, and other "disturbing comments" made by an account suspected to be Robinson on a pornography website between 2008 and 2012. [68] [69] Hours later, CNN specified multiple comments made on pornography website message boards, including Robinson calling himself a "black NAZI" and expressing support for reinstating slavery. [70] The Carolina Journal had reported that earlier in the week the Trump–Vance campaign privately told Robinson that he was not welcome at rallies for Donald Trump or JD Vance. [71] This occurred on the same day as the filing deadline for North Carolina's 2024 election ballots. Before the story was released, Robinson released a video dismissing the report as "tabloid lies" and saying that he would not drop out of the race. [72] His campaign canceled events in Henderson and Norlina planned for the same day. Republican state senate nominee Scott Lassiter was the first on the ballot with Robinson to call for him to "step aside". [69] Republican North Carolina senator Ted Budd said, "the allegations are concerning but we don't have any facts". [73] That afternoon, Politico reported that an email address belonging to Robinson was registered on Ashley Madison, a website designed for people seeking affairs while married. [74] The deadline for Robinson to withdraw from the race or be removed from the ballot passed on the morning of September 20. [75]

Following CNN's September report, most forecasters moved the race to 'Likely Democratic', while Elections Daily moved the race to Safe Democratic. [76] [9] [77] [78]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [77] Likely DSeptember 20, 2024
Inside Elections [79] Likely DSeptember 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [80] Likely DSeptember 19, 2024
RCP [81] Likely DSeptember 28, 2024
Fox News [82] Likely DSeptember 25, 2024
Elections Daily [83] Safe DSeptember 19, 2024
CNalysis [78] Solid DOctober 15, 2024
Split Ticket [84] Safe DOctober 19, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Josh Stein (D)

U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State senators

State representatives

Organizations

Individuals

Declined to endorse

Statewide officials

U.S. senators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 19, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Josh Stein (D)$77,521,905$76,601,833$1,208,360
Mark Robinson (R)$19,852,871$19,209,887$680,641
Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections [103]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Robinson (R)		Undecided
[d] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics [104] October 16 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.1%38.8%8.1%Stein +14.3%
270ToWin [105] October 24 – November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.1%38.0%8.9%Stein +15.1%
The Hill/DDHQ [106] through November 4, 2024November 4, 202453.4%38.8%7.8%Stein +14.6%
Average53.2%38.5%8.2%Stein +14.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Robinson (R)		OtherUndecided
AtlasIntel [107] November 3–4, 20241,219 (LV)± 3.0%54%38%4% [e] 4%
AtlasIntel [108] November 1–2, 20241,310 (LV)± 3.0%52%41%4% [e] 3%
Emerson College [109] [C] October 30 – November 2, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%52%40%4%4%
NYT/Siena College [110] October 28 – November 2, 20241,010 (LV)± 3.6%56%38%–5%
1,010 (RV)± 3.6%56%36%–7%
Morning Consult [111] October 23 – November 1, 20241,056 (LV)± 3.0%52%36%–12%
ActiVote [112] October 17–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%58%42%––
AtlasIntel [113] October 27–30, 20241,373 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%4% [e] 2%
AtlasIntel [114] October 25–29, 20241,665 (LV)± 3.0%54%39%4% [e] 4%
East Carolina University [115] October 24–29, 20241,250 (LV)± 3.0%55%40%5% [f] –
Fox News [116] October 24–28, 2024872 (LV)± 3.0%57%41%–2%
1,113 (RV)± 3.0%59%38%1%2%
CNN/SSRS [117] October 23–28, 2024750 (LV)± 4.5%53%37%10% [g] 1%
SurveyUSA [118] [D] October 23–26, 2024853 (LV)± 4.1%52%37%1%10%
UMass Lowell/YouGov [119] October 16–23, 2024650 (LV)± 4.2%48%36%3% [h] 12%
Emerson College [120] October 21–22, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%51%39%4% [i] 6%
Marist College [121] October 17–22, 20241,226 (LV)± 3.6%55%41%3% [j] 2%
1,410 (RV)± 3.3%55%40%3% [j] 2%
SoCal Strategies (R) [122] [E] October 20–21, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%55%40%–5%
SurveyUSA [123] [F] October 17–20, 20241,164 (RV)± 3.7%50%34%–15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [124] [G] October 16–18, 2024843 (LV)± 3.1%45%37%6% [k] 10%
AtlasIntel [125] October 12–17, 20241,674 (LV)± 2.0%54%39%3% [l] 4%
Elon University [126] October 10–17, 2024800 (RV)± 3.99%52%31%7% [m] 10%
Morning Consult [127] October 6–15, 20241,072 (LV)± 3.0%54%32%4%10%
Cygnal (R) [128] [H] October 12–14, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%36%4% [n] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [129] [G] October 12–14, 2024620 (LV)± 3.6%45%38%8% [o] 9%
Quinnipiac University [130] October 10–14, 20241,031 (LV)± 3.1%54%42%2% [p] 2%
52%40%5% [q] 2%
Emerson College [131] [I] October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%34%5% [r] 11%
ActiVote [132] September 5 – October 5, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%56.5%43.5%––
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [133] [G] September 27 – October 2, 2024753 (LV)± 3.3%46%36%4% [s] 14%
Quinnipiac University [134] September 25–29, 2024953 (LV)± 3.2%53%41%2% [t] 4%
52%39%6% [u] 3%
The Washington Post [135] September 25–29, 20241,001 (LV)± 3.5%54%38%2% [v] 6%
1,001 (RV)± 3.5%53%38%2% [w] 7%
High Point University [136] September 20–29, 2024589 (LV)± 4.0%51%34%3%11%
814 (RV)± 3.4%51%32%3%14%
Emerson College [137] [J] September 27–28, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%52%33%4% [x] 12%
RMG Research [138] [K] September 25–27, 2024780 (LV)± 3.5%53%38%5% [y] 8%
East Carolina University [139] September 23–26, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%50%33%5% [z] 13%
AtlasIntel [140] September 20–25, 20241,173 (LV)± 3.0%54%38%3% [aa] 5%
CNN/SSRS [141] September 20–25, 2024931 (LV)± 3.9%53%36%11% [ab] –
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [142] [L] September 19–25, 2024411 (LV)–53%33%7% [ac] 8%
59%35%–6%
Fox News [143] September 20–24, 2024787 (LV)± 3.5%56%41%1% [ad] 3%
991 (RV)± 3.0%56%40%2% [ae] 3%
Marist College [144] September 19–24, 20241,507 (RV)± 3.5%54%42%1% [af] 3%
1,348 (LV)± 3.7%54%43%1% [af] 2%
September 19, 2024CNN Reports that Mark Robinson made disturbing comments on an online forum years ago.
NYT/Siena College [145] September 17–21, 2024682 (LV)± 4.2%47%37%–16%
682 (RV)± 4.2%47%36%–17%
Meredith College [146] September 18–20, 2024802 (LV)± 3.5%50%40%5% [ag] 9%
Victory Insights (R) [147] September 16–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%42%–11%
Emerson College [148] [I] September 15–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%40%2% [ah] 10%
Morning Consult [111] September 11–18, 20241,314 (LV)± 2.7%50%37%1%12%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
Impact Research (D) [149] [M] 		September 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%52%42%–6%
Cygnal (R) [150] [H] September 15–16, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%39%2% [ai] 13%
Elon University [151] September 4–13, 2024800 (RV)± 3.74%49%35%3%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [152] [G] September 6–9, 2024495 (LV)± 3.8%42%33%3% [aj] 23%
Quinnipiac University [153] September 4–8, 2024940 (LV)± 3.2%54%42%1% [ak] 4%
51%41%5% [al] 4%
Morning Consult [154] August 30 – September 8, 20241,369 (LV)± 3.0%50%37%2% [am] 11%
SurveyUSA [155] [D] September 4–7, 2024676 (LV)± 4.9%51%37%–12%
Florida Atlantic University [156] September 5–6, 2024692 (RV)± 3.7%48%38%–14%
619 (LV)± 3.7%50%39%–11%
Emerson College [157] [I] August 25–28, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%47%41%3% [an] 10%
East Carolina University [158] August 25–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.0%47%41%1% [ao] 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [159] [G] August 25–28, 2024812 (LV)± 3.18%44%40%4% [ap] 13%
SoCal Strategies (R) [160] [E] August 26–27, 2024612 (LV)–47%37%–16%
Fox News [161] August 23–26, 20241,026 (RV)± 3.0%54%43%2% [aq] 1%
ActiVote [162] July 26 – August 26, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%54%46%––
SurveyUSA [163] [F] August 19–21, 20241,053 (RV)± 4.0%48%34%–18%
941 (LV)± 4.0%50%36%–14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [164] [G] August 12–15, 2024601 (LV)± 3.7%45%39%3% [ar] 13%
NYT/Siena College [165] August 9–14, 2024655 (RV)± 4.2%48%38%–14%
655 (LV)± 4.2%49%39%–12%
YouGov (D) [166] [A] August 5–9, 2024802 (RV)± 3.9%46%36%6% [as] 13%
Cygnal (R) [167] August 4–5, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%43%38%4% [at] 15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [168] July 31 – August 3, 2024714 (LV)–43%38%3% [au] 16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [169] July 22–24, 2024586 (LV)–38%34%5% [av] 23%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential race
Public Policy Polling (D) [170] [N] July 19–20, 2024573 (RV)–48%42%–10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [171] [G] July 16–18, 2024461 (LV)± 4.0%37%36%4% [aw] 23%
Expedition Strategies [172] [O] June 24 – July 8, 2024284 (LV)–48%41%–11%
Spry Strategies [173] June 7–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%43%–18%
East Carolina University [174] May 31 – June 3, 20241,332 (LV)± 3.1%44%43%–13%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [175] [P] May 29 – June 2, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%42%44%–14%
Change Research (D) [176] [A] May 13–18, 2024835 (LV)± 3.8%44%43%–13%
High Point University [177] May 2–9, 2024804 (RV)± 3.2%34%39%–27%
1,002 (A)± 3.2%30%35%–35%
Cygnal (R) [178] [Q] May 4–5, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%39%5% [ax] 17%
Emerson College [179] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%42%5% [ay] 12%
Meeting Street Insights (R) [180] [R] April 25–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%44%37%6% [az] 13%
Meredith College [181] April 11–17, 2024711 (LV)± 3.5%45%36%–20%
Cygnal (R) [182] [B] April 7–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%38%40%–18%
Quinnipiac University [183] April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%52%44%2% [ba] 3%
48%41%7% [bb] 3%
High Point University [184] March 22–30, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%37%34%–29%
Marist College [185] March 11–14, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.6%49%47%–4%
SurveyUSA [186] [D] March 3–9, 2024598 (LV)± 4.9%44%42%–14%
Cygnal (R) [187] [B] March 6–7, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%44%–17%
Change Research (D) [32] [A] February 15–19, 20241,622 (LV)± 2.6%42%43%–15%
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%41%41%–14%
Meredith College [34] January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%39%35%–17%
East Carolina University [57] November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%40%44%–16%
Meredith College [36] November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%38%36%–19%
Change Research (D) [188] [A] September 1–5, 2023914 (LV)± 3.6%38%42%–20%
Opinion Diagnostics [59] June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%38%41%–21%
Cygnal (R) [189] [B] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 4.0%41%42%–18%
Change Research (D) [190] [A] May 5–8, 2023802 (LV)± 3.9%43%46%–11%
Public Policy Polling (D) [191] March 2–3, 2023704 (RV)± 3.7%42%44%–14%
Differentiator Data (R) [192] [S] January 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%42%42%–16%
Public Policy Polling (D) [38] [A] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)± 4.0%44%42%–14%
Meeting Street Insights (R) [193] [T] May 12–16, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%42%48%–10%
Hypothetical polling

Josh Stein vs. Dale Folwell

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Dale
Folwell (R)		Undecided
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%42%31%27%
East Carolina University [57] November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%40%38%22%
Cygnal (R) [189] [B] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 3.96%39%34%27%

Josh Stein vs. Bill Graham

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Bill
Graham (R)		Undecided
East Carolina University [33] February 9–12, 20241,207 (RV)± 3.3%40%35%25%
East Carolina University [57] November 29 – December 1, 2023915 (RV)± 3.8%42%39%19%

Josh Stein vs. Mark Walker

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Josh
Stein (D)		Mark
Walker (R)		Undecided
Cygnal (R) [189] [B] May 12–23, 2023610 (LV)± 3.96%39%37%24%

Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Democrat		Generic
Republican		OtherUndecided
High Point University [31] February 16–23, 2024753 (LV)± 3.9%46%45%2% [bc] 7%

Results

2024 NC Gubernatorial election swing.svg
2024 NC Gubernatorial election trend.svg
2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election [194]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Josh Stein 3,069,496 54.90% +3.38%
Republican Mark Robinson 2,241,30940.08%–6.93%
Libertarian Mike Ross176,3923.15%+2.05%
Constitution Vinny Smith54,7380.98%+0.60%
Green Wayne Turner49,6120.89%N/A
Total votes5,591,547 100.0%
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Voter demographics

2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election (CNN)
Demographic subgroupSteinRobinson % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 96221
Moderates 712340
Conservatives 158039
Party
Democrats 96232
Republicans 138334
Independents 583535
Gender
Men484748
Women613452
Age
18–24 years old59309
25–29 years old63325
30–39 years old593815
40–49 years old583616
50–64 years old494729
65 and older544225
Race/ethnicity
White 464969
Black 85819
Latino 53398
Asian N/AN/A1
OtherN/AN/A2
Gender by race
White men425534
White women514436
Black men75138
Black women93411
Latino men39514
Latino women67264
Other racial/ethnic groups55414
Education
Never attended college 425016
Some college education544225
Associate degree 435217
Bachelor's degree degree643325
Postgraduate 692616
Education by race
White college graduates623431
White no college degree346238
Non-white college graduates762110
Non-white no college degree721920
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees672816
White women without college degrees385820
White men with college degrees574015
White men without college degrees296719
Non-white742031
Area type
Urban742028
Suburban484753
Rural454920

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Would not vote" with 4%
  3. ↑ "Would not vote" with 3%
  4. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  5. 1 2 3 4 "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%
  6. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%
  7. ↑ "Neither" with 6%; "Other" with 3%
  8. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Smith (C) with 1%
  9. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  10. 1 2 "Another party's candidate" with 3%
  11. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 3%; Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  12. ↑ "Other" with 2%; "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 1%
  13. ↑ "Other" with 4%; "None" with 3%
  14. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with <1%
  15. ↑ "Won't vote if these are the candidates" with 4%; Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  16. ↑ "Refused" with 2%
  17. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) and Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  18. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
  19. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  20. ↑ "Wouldn't Vote" and "Refused" with 1%
  21. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%, Smith (C), "Wouldn't Vote", and "Refused" with 1%
  22. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  23. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 2%
  24. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%
  25. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; "Would Not Vote" with 1%
  26. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%; Smith (C), "Other" with 1%
  27. ↑ "Blank/Null/Won't vote" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  28. ↑ "Neither" with 8%; "Other" with 3%
  29. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; "Would not vote" with 4%
  30. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  31. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  32. 1 2 "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  33. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G), Smith (C), and "Someone else" with 1%
  34. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  35. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%
  36. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  37. ↑ "Refused" with 1%
  38. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; Smith (C) with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  39. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  40. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  41. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G), Smith (C), "Write-in candidate" each with <1%
  42. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Others" with 1%
  43. ↑ "Other" with 1%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  44. ↑ Ross (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  45. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Undecided Third Party" with 4%
  46. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%
  47. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  48. ↑ Ross (L) with 3%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 1%
  49. ↑ Ross (L) with 1%; Turner (G) with 1%; "Other" with 2%
  50. ↑ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 1%
  51. ↑ "Someone else" with 5%
  52. ↑ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%
  53. ↑ "Wouldn't vote" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  54. ↑ Ross (L) with 4%; Turner (G) with 2%; "Wouldn't vote" with 1%
  55. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Nexstar
  4. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by On Point Politics and Red Eagle Politics, which supports Republican candidates.
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by High Point University
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Poll sponsored by The Daily Telegraph
  8. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Carolina Journal
  9. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by The Hill
  10. ↑ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  11. ↑ Poll sponsored by Napolitan Institute
  12. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Cook Political Report
  13. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP
  14. ↑ Poll sponsored by Clean and Prosperous America PAC, which supports Democratic candidates
  15. ↑ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  16. ↑ Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  17. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Carolina Journal
  18. ↑ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
  19. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the NC Values Commission
  20. ↑ This poll was sponsored by the Carolina Partnership for Reform

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References

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  2. ↑ "Josh Stein defeats Mark Robinson to become North Carolina's first Jewish governor". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  3. ↑ "Democrats Actually Had Quite a Good Night in North Carolina". The Atlantic. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  4. ↑ "North Carolina Democrats find electoral success further down the ballot and hope to build on it". Associated Press. Retrieved November 17, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Republican Ted Budd wins North Carolina's U.S. Senate race". AP NEWS. November 8, 2022. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. 1 2 "State Composite Abstract Report - Contest.pdf" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
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  9. 1 2 Cunningham, Eric (September 19, 2024). "Ratings Update: Mark Robinson Scandals Shift North Carolina Gubernatorial Race Shifts to Safe Democratic". Elections Daily. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  10. ↑ Langston, Grant (December 7, 2023). "Tryon councilwoman eyes North Carolina governor seat". Tryon Daily Bulletin . Retrieved December 9, 2023.
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  13. ↑ Wooten, Alan (December 14, 2023). "Democrat Josh Stein, Libertarian Shannon Bray file for North Carolina governor race". Jacksonville Daily News . Retrieved January 19, 2024. Democrats headed to the March 5 gubernatorial primary include Chrelle Booker, Mike Morgan and Marcus Williams in addition to Stein.
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  17. 1 2 "Stein Kicks Off the 2024 Cycle".
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  29. ↑ "Endorsements". Sierra Club . Retrieved February 6, 2024.
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  31. 1 2 3 High Point University
  32. 1 2 3 Change Research (D)
  33. 1 2 3 4 5 East Carolina University
  34. 1 2 3 Meredith College
  35. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
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  37. 1 2 Meredith College
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  43. ↑ "Ex-health care executive ends bid for North Carolina governor, running now for secretary of state". Associated Press News . November 2, 2023.
  44. ↑ Woodhouse, Dallas (October 25, 2023). "Mark Walker exits governor's race to seek new Triad-area congressional seat". Carolina Journal . Retrieved October 25, 2023.
  45. ↑ Griffin, Kevin (December 16, 2023). "Former state senator from Hickory declines to file for governor after announcing campaign". Hickory Daily Record . Retrieved December 18, 2023.
  46. ↑ Casts, Pocket. "U.S. Sen. Thom Tillis talks openly on hot topics, career ambitions and his song playlist - Tying It Together with Tim Boyum". Pocket Casts.
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  87. ↑ "Beshear's PAC issues first wave of endorsements". WKU Public Radio | The Public Radio Service of Western Kentucky University. March 26, 2024. Retrieved March 27, 2024.
  88. ↑ Mueller, Julia (June 10, 2024). "Maryland Gov. Wes Moore to stump for Democrat in NC governor's race". The Hill . Retrieved June 10, 2024.
  89. ↑ Bacharier, Galen (September 30, 2024). "Josh Shapiro, Wes Moore hit the campaign trail in North Carolina • NC Newsline". NC Newsline. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  90. 1 2 3 4 Specht, Paul (September 18, 2024). "Former NC Senator Stevens, other Republicans to endorse Stein". WRAL News. Retrieved September 19, 2024.
  91. ↑ Sinclair, Tomeka (April 23, 2024). "NC gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein makes stop in Laurinburg". Laurinburg Exchange . Retrieved June 28, 2024.
  92. ↑ "Everything At Stake: Human Rights Campaign Endorses Josh Stein for Governor and Jeff Jackson for Attorney General of North Carolina". Human Rights Campaign. July 18, 2024.
  93. ↑ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  94. ↑ Daniels, Cheyanne (September 20, 2024). "Martin Luther King III blasts Mark Robinson's alleged comments of his father". The Hill .
  95. ↑ Hallas, Emily (September 23, 2024). "GOP gubernatorial leaders Kemp and Lee pull support of Robinson after allegations". National Review. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  96. ↑ Allison, Natalie (September 23, 2024). "Newly unearthed data shows closer links to Robinson and porn, dating sites". Politico. Retrieved September 23, 2024. Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee, who chairs the RGA, is pulling his support for Robinson
  97. ↑ Reynolds, Nick (September 25, 2024). "McMaster joins fellow Republicans abandoning NC's scandal-ridden Mark Robinson". Post and Courier. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  98. ↑ Fahlberg, Audrey (September 25, 2024). "Glenn Youngkin Distances Himself from Mark Robinson After CNN Bombshell". National Review. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  99. ↑ Renewal, Republicans for National (April 20, 2024). "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Mark Robinson for Governor". Republicans for National Renewal. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  100. ↑ "Mark Robinson vows to rebuild his staff for North Carolina governor". AP. Wilkesboro, North Carolina. September 23, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  101. ↑ Killian, Joe; Henkel, Clayton (April 2, 2024). "State treasurer declines to endorse fellow Republican for governor". NC Newsline. Retrieved April 13, 2024.
  102. 1 2 Schofield, Rob (April 11, 2024). "Troubled waters for Mark Robinson". NC Newsline. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  103. ↑ "Campaign Document Search By Entity". North Carolina State Board of Elections.
  104. ↑ "2024 North Carolina Governor - Robinson vs. Stein | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
  105. ↑ "2024 Polls: North Carolina Governor - 270toWin". 270toWin.com.
  106. ↑ "North Carolina Governor polls - The Hill and DDHQ". The Hill.
  107. ↑ AtlasIntel
  108. ↑ AtlasIntel
  109. ↑ Emerson College
  110. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  111. 1 2 Morning Consult
  112. ↑ ActiVote
  113. ↑ AtlasIntel
  114. ↑ AtlasIntel
  115. ↑ East Carolina University
  116. ↑ Fox News
  117. ↑ CNN/SSRS
  118. ↑ SurveyUSA
  119. ↑ UMass Lowell/YouGov
  120. ↑ Emerson College
  121. ↑ Marist College
  122. ↑ SoCal Strategies (R)
  123. ↑ SurveyUSA
  124. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  125. ↑ AtlasIntel
  126. ↑ Elon University
  127. ↑ Morning Consult
  128. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  129. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  130. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  131. ↑ Emerson College
  132. ↑ ActiVote
  133. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  134. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  135. ↑ The Washington Post
  136. ↑ High Point University
  137. ↑ Emerson College
  138. ↑ RMG Research
  139. ↑ East Carolina University
  140. ↑ AtlasIntel
  141. ↑ CNN/SSRS
  142. ↑ BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)
  143. ↑ Fox News
  144. ↑ Marist College
  145. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  146. ↑ Meredith College
  147. ↑ Victory Insights (R)
  148. ↑ Emerson College
  149. ↑ Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/
    Impact Research (D)
  150. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  151. ↑ Elon University
  152. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  153. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  154. ↑ Morning Consult
  155. ↑ SurveyUSA
  156. ↑ Florida Atlantic University
  157. ↑ Emerson College
  158. ↑ East Carolina University
  159. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  160. ↑ SoCal Strategies (R)
  161. ↑ Fox News
  162. ↑ ActiVote
  163. ↑ SurveyUSA
  164. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  165. ↑ NYT/Siena College
  166. ↑ YouGov (D)
  167. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  168. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  169. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  170. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  171. ↑ Redfield & Wilton Strategies
  172. ↑ Expedition Strategies
  173. ↑ Spry Strategies
  174. ↑ East Carolina University
  175. ↑ North Star Opinion Research (R)
  176. ↑ Change Research (D)
  177. ↑ High Point University
  178. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  179. ↑ Emerson College
  180. ↑ Meeting Street Insights (R)
  181. ↑ Meredith College
  182. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  183. ↑ Quinnipiac University
  184. ↑ High Point University
  185. ↑ Marist College
  186. ↑ SurveyUSA
  187. ↑ Cygnal (R)
  188. ↑ Change Research (D)
  189. 1 2 3 Cygnal (R)
  190. ↑ Change Research (D)
  191. ↑ Public Policy Polling (D)
  192. ↑ Differentiator Data (R)
  193. ↑ Meeting Street Insights (R) Archived May 20, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
  194. ↑ "11/05/2024 OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections .

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