2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina
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Nominee Donald Trump
(presumptive)		 Joe Biden
(presumptive)
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate TBA Kamala Harris
(presumptive)
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. [1]

Contents

Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s, as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the solitary Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia 32 years earlier. However, it flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 and has been narrowly won by the Republican candidate in every presidential election since then, being the closest Republican state victory in 2012 and 2020 even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in the latter. However, at the gubernatorial level, incumbent Democrat Roy Cooper has won both terms, and an upcoming race for a new governor coinciding with the presidential election is expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina is expected to be targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as either a tossup or leaning towards the Republican candidate (presumably Donald Trump). [2]

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in April.

Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures. [4] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate, [5] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline. [6]

The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges. [5] [7] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves. [5]

In North Carolina, the "No Preference" option will appear on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option. [8]

The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 5, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)609,68087.3%113
No Preference 88,90012.7%
Total:698,580100.0%132132
Source: [9]

Republican primary

The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Republican primary, March 5, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 793,97873.8%6262
Nikki Haley 250,83823.3%1111
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)14,7401.4%
No Preference 7,4480.7%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)3,4180.3%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)3,1660.3%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)9160.1%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)7270.1%
Total:1,075,231100.0%7474
Source: [10]

Libertarian primary

The North Carolina Libertarian Primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot. [11]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [12] Lean RDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [13] Tilt RApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14] Lean RJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [15] TossupDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [16] TossupDecember 30, 2023
CNN [17] Lean RJanuary 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon April 9–13, 2024635 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%
Quinnipiac University April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%48%46%6%
High Point University March 22–30, 2024829(RV)± 3.4%45%42%14%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%
Marist College March 11–14, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.6%51%48%1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024699 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%
SurveyUSA [upper-alpha 1] March 3–9, 2024598 (LV)± 4.9%50%45%5%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] March 6–7, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%40%15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024704 (RV)± 5.0%50%41%9%
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%44%9%
Fox News February 8–12, 20241,099 (RV)± 3.0%50%45%5%
Meredith College January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%44%39%17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024706 (RV)± 4.0%49%39%12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023704 (RV)± 4.0%49%40%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023702 (RV)± 4.0%48%39%13%
Meredith College November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%39%40%22% [lower-alpha 2]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 5–10, 2023702 (RV)± 4.0%47%43%10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023736 (LV)–43%38%20%
Change Research (D) [upper-alpha 3] September 1–5, 2023914 (LV)± 3.6%46%42%12%
Prime Group [upper-alpha 4] June 14–28, 2023500 (RV)–54%46%–
500 (RV)–45%37%18% [lower-alpha 3]
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%43%40%18%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] March 26–27, 2023605 (LV)± 4.0%43%45%12%
Differentiators (R) [upper-alpha 5] January 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%45%48%7%
Emerson College October 27–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%40%9%
Public Policy Polling (D) October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)–44%44%12%
SurveyUSA September 28 – October 2, 2022918 (RV)± 3.9%43%45%12%
Emerson College September 15–16, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%42%11%
East Carolina University September 7–10, 20221,020 (LV)± 3.6%46%45%9%
Blueprint Polling (D) August 4–6, 2022656 (LV)± 3.8%45%39%17%
PEM Management Corporation (R) [upper-alpha 6] July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%48%41%11%
East Carolina University May 19–20, 2022635 (RV)± 4.5%46%37%16%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Quinnipiac University April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%41%38%12%3%3%3%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%42%34%10%2%1%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024699 (RV)± 4.0%45%39%7%1%0%8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024704 (RV)± 5.0%45%35%9%1%1%9%
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%37%5%1%1%10%
Fox News February 8–12, 20241,099 (RV)± 3.0%46%37%8%1%2%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024706 (RV)± 4.0%45%32%9%1%1%12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023704 (RV)± 4.0%45%34%8%1%1%11%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Meredith College April 11–17, 2024711 (LV)± 3.5%41%39%9%11%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] April 7–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%43%39%7%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 14–17, 2024642 (LV)–43%39%8%10%
Marist College March 11–14, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.6%46%43%11%–
North Star Opinion Research [upper-alpha 7] January 30 – February 4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%32%16%13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies December 28–30, 20231,220 (LV)–37%33%11%19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023620 (LV)–44%35%8%13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023736 (LV)–41%38%9%14%
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023702 (RV)± 4.0%42%33%9%2%14%
Hypothetical polling
Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%41%9%
Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%34%17%
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Fox News February 8–12, 20241,099 (RV)± 3.0%46%41%13%
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Fox News February 8–12, 20241,099 (RV)± 3.0%31%33%19%2%2%13%
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023620 (LV)–36%33%12%18%
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%46%40%13%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] March 26–27, 2023605 (LV)± 4.0%44%41%15%
Differentiators (R) [upper-alpha 5] January 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%49%44%7%
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023620 (LV)–38%34%12%4%12%
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Pence
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 2] March 26–27, 2023605 (LV)± 4.0%39%41%20%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Someone else" with 17%
  3. ↑ No Labels candidate
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
  5. 1 2 Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
  6. ↑ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

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References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
  3. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  4. ↑ "2024 Fact Sheet - Running for President" (PDF). North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
  5. 1 2 3 "Biden primary foe Phillips will challenge states where he missed ballot | Semafor". www.semafor.com. December 7, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
  6. ↑ "North Carolina's 2024 presidential primary candidates approved". Carolina Journal -. December 26, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
  7. ↑ "Dean Phillips, a Democrat running for president, says North Carolina is wrong to keep him off ballot". WUNC. December 22, 2023. Retrieved December 26, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Our Campaigns - NC US President - D Primary Race - May 08, 2012".
  9. ↑ "03/05/2024 OFFICIAL PRIMARY ELECTION RESULTS - STATEWIDE". North Carolina State Board of Elections. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  10. ↑ "North Carolina Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times . Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  11. ↑ News Staff, FOX Carolina. "Here are the 10 Libertarian candidates in the 2024 NC Presidential Primary". FOX News.
  12. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  17. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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