2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina
Flag of North Carolina.svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
Turnout73.73% [1] Decrease2.svg 1.62 pp
  TrumpPortrait (3x4a).jpg Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote160
Popular vote2,898,4232,715,375
Percentage50.86%47.65%
North Carolina Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina election results map by congressional district.svg
NC President 2024.svg
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat. [2]

Contents

While Republican presidential candidates won close victories in 2012, 2016, and 2020, even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, at the state level, Democrat Roy Cooper won the 2016 and 2020 gubernatorial elections. Because of these results, the presidential election was expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina was targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, who carried the state with a margin similar to his 2016 result. [3] Incumbent president Biden was initially poised to run for re-election but withdrew on July 21 and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris.

Despite North Carolina Republicans struggling down-ballot, especially due to controversial Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson, Trump won the state by 3.21%, keeping it in the Republican column for the fourth election cycle in a row. Trump won the state himself for the third straight election. North Carolina remains the only battleground state that Trump won all three times. With 50.9 percent of the vote, Trump won the highest percentage of the vote for any presidential candidate since 2004.

Harris did outperform Hillary Clinton in 2016, losing by a 3.21% margin compared to Clinton's 3.66% margin of defeat. North Carolina and Georgia were the only two battleground states where Harris did better than Clinton but worse than Biden. North Carolina was also the only state that Trump won in 2020 that did not vote for him by double digits in 2024.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures. [4] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate, [5] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023, deadline. [6]

The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges. [5] [7] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves. [5]

In addition to the candidates on the ballot, the "No Preference" option appeared on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option. [8]

The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 [9]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)609,68087.27%113
No Preference 88,90012.73%
Total:698,580100.00%132132

Republican primary

The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Republican primary, March 5, 2024 [10]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 793,97873.84%6262
Nikki Haley 250,83823.33%1212
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)14,7401.37%
No Preference 7,4480.69%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)3,4180.32%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)3,1660.29%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)9160.09%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)7270.07%
Total:1,075,231100.00%7474

Libertarian primary

2024 North Carolina Libertarian presidential Primary
Flag of North Carolina.svg
←  2020 March 5, 20242028 →
←  IA
CA  →
  NOTA Option Logo 3x4.svg Chase Oliver by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Candidate None of the above Chase Oliver
Home stateN/A Georgia
Percentage40.5%13.3%
  Jacob Hornberger speaking at the University of Arizona (cropped).png Joshua Smith in March 2020.png
CandidateJacob HornbergerJoshua Smith
Home state Virginia Iowa
Percentage7.0%7.0%

The North Carolina Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot. [11]

North Carolina Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentage
None of the Above 2,05840.5%
Chase Oliver 67613.3%
Jacob Hornberger3577.0%
Joshua Smith3547.0%
Michael Rectenwald 1953.8%
Charles Ballay1833.6%
Lars Mapstead1763.5%
Mike ter Maat1372.7%
Other [a] 94618.7%
Total:5,082100.0%
Source: [12]

General election

Events and rule changes

Voters must now show a voter ID at the polls and provide a copy of their ID with their mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots received after election day also will not be counted. [13] There will also be more partisan poll-watchers. [14] The laws are similar to others passed in Republican-controlled states which Democrats have criticized as voter suppression. [13] [14] Common Cause North Carolina and the League of Women Voters of North Carolina have been educating voters on the new rules. [13]

On September 12, 2024, the Republican National Committee sued to block the use of digital IDs, popular with students at the University of North Carolina, as a form of voter ID. [15] The plaintiffs sought a temporary restraining order, and alleged that the digital IDs did not comply with the state's voter identification requirements and were susceptible to fraud. [15] On September 20, 2024, Wake County Superior Court Judge Keith Gregory rejected the request for a temporary restraining order, stating that the Republican National Committee had not "advanced any credible link between the State Board's approval of Mobile One Cards and a heightened risk of ineligible voters casting illegal votes." [15]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was granted the status of presidential candidate in July 2024 for North Carolina after state authorities recognized the political party he founded, "We the People," which allowed Kennedy to qualify using 13,757 signatures, instead of the 82,542 signatures required for a candidate with no party. [16] [17] The North Carolina Democratic Party filed a lawsuit alleging that Kennedy was improperly using his party to avoid higher qualification requirements, but this lawsuit against Kennedy was unsuccessful. [17] On August 27, Kennedy asked state authorities to remove him as a presidential candidate in North Carolina; on August 28, the We the People party officially made the same request to state authorities; both requests were initially denied due to ballots already being printed and upcoming deadlines, with North Carolina law mandating that absentee ballots should be mailed by authorities from September 6. [18] [19]

Kennedy responded by launching a lawsuit demanding to be removed as a presidential candidate in North Carolina, with Kennedy previously saying that "by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats", while Kennedy remained as a presidential candidate in non-battleground states and indicated that his lawsuit to become a presidential candidate in New York would continue. [17] [19] [20] While Wake County Superior Court ruled against Kennedy, he appealed and the North Carolina Court of Appeals ruled for Kennedy on September 6, ordering for authorities to reprint ballots without Kennedy as a candidate. [20] The North Carolina Supreme Court affirmed the Court of Appeals' decision on September 9, so authorities went to reprint the ballots, which delayed the mailing date from the originally stipulated September 6 date to become September 20 for military and overseas voters and September 24 for other voters. [21]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [22] TossupNovember 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Lean RNovember 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [24] TossupNovember 4, 2024
CNN [25] TossupNovember 4, 2024
CNalysis [26] Tilt D (flip)November 4, 2024
The Economist [27] TossupNovember 4, 2024
538 [28] TossupNovember 4, 2024
Inside Elections [29] TossupNovember 4, 2024
NBC News [30] TossupNovember 4, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270ToWin [31] October 23 – November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.3%48.6%4.1%Trump +1.3%
538 [32] through November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.4%48.3%4.3%Trump +0.9%
Silver Bulletin [33] through November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.7%48.8%3.5%Trump +1.1%
The Hill/DDHQ [34] through November 4, 2024November 5, 202447.9%49.4%2.7%Trump +1.5%
Average47.6%48.8%3.6%Trump +1.2%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX [35] November 3–5, 20241,815 (RV)± 2.3%48%47%5%
50.5% [d] 49.5%–
1,600 (LV)49%48%3%
50.2% [d] 49.8%–
AtlasIntel [36] November 3–4, 20241,219 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%2%
Patriot Polling [37] November 1–3, 2024799 (RV)± 3.0%51%49%–
InsiderAdvantage (R) [38] November 1–2, 2024800 (LV)± 3.4%49%47%4% [e]
AtlasIntel [39] November 1–2, 20241,310 (LV)± 3.0%51%47%2%
Emerson College [40] October 30 – November 2, 2024860 (LV)± 3.3%49%48%3% [f]
50% [d] 49%1% [f]
The New York Times/Siena College [41] October 28 – November 2, 20241,010 (RV)± 3.5%44%48%8%
1,010 (LV)46%48%6%
ActiVote [42] October 17 – November 2, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%51%49%–
Morning Consult [43] October 23 − November 1, 20241,056 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%4%
AtlasIntel [44] October 30–31, 20241,373 (LV)± 3.0%51%47%2%
YouGov [45] [A] October 25–31, 2024987 (RV)± 4.2%49%49%2%
949 (LV)50%49%1%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [46] [B] October 25–30, 2024751 (LV)± 3.0%50%47%3% [g]
AtlasIntel [47] October 25–29, 20241,665 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3%
Trafalgar Group (R) [48] October 25–28, 20241,091 (LV)± 2.9%49%46%5% [g]
Fox News [49] October 24–28, 20241,113 (RV)± 3.0%49%50%1%
872 (LV)50%49%1%
SurveyUSA [50] [C] October 23–26, 2024853 (LV)± 4.1%47%47%6% [e]
CES/YouGov [51] October 1–25, 20242,330 (A)–48%49%3%
2,308 (LV)50%48%2%
Emerson College [52] October 21–22, 2024950 (LV)± 3.1%50%48%2% [h]
50% [d] 48%2% [h]
Marist College [53] October 17–22, 20241,410 (RV)± 3.3%49%48%3% [i]
1,226 (LV)± 3.6%50%48%2% [j]
SoCal Strategies (R) [54] [D] October 20–21, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%49%46%5%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [55] October 19–20, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%47%4% [e]
High Point University/SurveyUSA [56] October 17–20, 20241,164 (RV)± 3.5%46%47%7% [g]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [57] October 16–20, 2024755 (RV)± 4.0%50%47%3%
702 (LV)50%48%2%
AtlasIntel [58] October 12–17, 20241,674 (LV)± 2.0%49%51%–
Elon University [59] October 10–17, 2024800 (RV)± 4.0%46%46%8% [k]
Morning Consult [43] October 6−15, 20241,072 (LV)± 3.0%49%48%3%
The Washington Post/Schar School [60] September 30 – October 15, 2024965 (RV)± 3.9%49%45%6%
965 (LV)50%47%3%
Quinnipiac University [61] October 10–14, 20241,031 (LV)± 3.1%47%50%3%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [62] [B] October 9–14, 20241,042 (LV)± 3.0%51%46%3% [g]
Trafalgar Group (R) [63] October 10–13, 20241,085 (LV)± 2.9%47%45%6% [l]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R) [64] [E] October 6–9, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%48%47%5%
Emerson College [65] October 5–8, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%48%3% [f]
50% [d] 49%1% [f]
The Wall Street Journal [66] September 28 – October 8, 2024600 (RV)± 5.0%47%47%6%
ActiVote [67] September 7 – October 6, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%49%51%–
InsiderAdvantage (R) [68] September 29–30, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%50%49%1%
Quinnipiac University [69] September 25–29, 2024953 (LV)± 3.2%49%48%3%
The Washington Post [70] September 25–29, 20241,001 (RV)± 3.5%50%47%3% [f]
1,001 (LV)50%48%2% [f]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R) [71] [F] September 23–29, 2024401 (LV)± 4.9%48%47%5%
High Point University [72] September 20–29, 2024814 (RV)± 3.6%46%48%6% [h]
589 (LV)± 4.9%48%48%4% [h]
Emerson College [73] [G] September 27–28, 2024850 (LV)± 3.3%49%48%3% [f]
50% [d] 49%1% [f]
RMG Research [74] [H] September 25–27, 2024780 (LV)± 3.5%49%46%5% [m]
51% [d] 47%2% [n]
AtlasIntel [75] September 20–25, 20241,173 (LV)± 3.0%48%51%1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [76] September 19–25, 2024411 (LV)–49%49%2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [77] September 19–25, 2024889 (RV)± 3.0%47%50%3%
828 (LV)48%50%2%
Fox News [78] September 20−24, 2024991 (RV)± 3.0%48%50%2%
787 (LV)± 3.5%50%49%1%
Marist College [79] September 19−24, 20241,507 (RV)± 3.5%48%49%3% [j]
1,348 (LV)± 3.7%49%49%2% [j]
The Bullfinch Group [80] [I] September 20–23, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%48%49%3%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [81] [B] September 19−22, 20241,078 (LV)± 3.0%49%46%5% [e]
The New York Times/Siena College [82] September 17–21, 2024682 (RV)± 4.2%48%47%5%
682 (LV)49%47%4%
Meredith College [83] September 18−20, 2024802 (LV)± 3.5%48%48%4% [o]
Victory Insights [84] September 16−18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%45%6%
Emerson College [85] September 15–18, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%48%49%3% [f]
49% [d] 50%1% [f]
Morning Consult [43] September 9−18, 20241,314 (LV)± 3.0%47%49%4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [86] [J] September 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%50%47%3% [g]
TIPP Insights [87] [K] September 11–13, 2024973 (LV)± 3.2%49%46%5%
Elon University [88] September 4−13, 2024800 (RV)± 3.8%45%46%9% [p]
Trafalgar Group (R) [89] September 11–12, 20241,094 (LV)± 2.9%48%46%6% [e]
Quantus Insights (R) [90] [L] September 11–12, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%48%47%5% [q]
50%48%2% [r]
Quinnipiac University [91] September 4–8, 2024940 (LV)± 3.2%47%50%3% [h]
Morning Consult [43] August 30 – September 8, 20241,369 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%4%
SurveyUSA [92] [C] September 4–7, 2024900 (LV)± 4.9%46%49%5%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [93] September 5–6, 2024692 (RV)± 3.7%47%46%7% [p]
619 (LV)48%47%5% [s]
Patriot Polling [94] September 1–3, 2024804 (RV)–50%48%2%
InsiderAdvantage (R) [95] August 29–31, 2024800 (LV)± 3.5%49%48%3% [s]
ActiVote [96] August 6–31, 2024400 (LV)± 4.9%50%50%–
Emerson College [97] August 25–28, 2024775 (LV)± 3.5%49%48%3%
50% [d] 49%1% [f]
SoCal Strategies (R) [98] [D] August 26–27, 2024612 (LV)–50%46%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [99] August 23–26, 2024645 (LV)± 4.0%49%49%2%
700 (RV)47%49%4%
Fox News [100] August 23–26, 2024999 (RV)± 3.0%50%49%1% [g]
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
High Point University/SurveyUSA [101] August 19–21, 20241,053 (RV)± 4.0%45%46%9%
941 (LV)47%47%6%
Spry Strategies (R) [102] [M] August 14–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%47%6%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
Focaldata [103] August 6–16, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%50%50%–
The New York Times/Siena College [104] August 9–14, 2024655 (RV)± 4.2%46%49%5%
655 (LV)47%49%4%
Trafalgar Group (R) [105] August 6–8, 20241,082 (LV)± 2.9%49%45%6%
Navigator Research (D) [106] July 31 – August 8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [107] July 26 – August 8, 2024403 (LV)–47%48%5%
August 6, 2024Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [108] July 24–28, 2024706 (RV)± 4.0%48%46%6%
July 21, 2024Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [109] May 7–13, 2024704 (RV)± 4.0%50%40%10%
Emerson College [110] February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%41%9%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		 Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Others/
Undecided
[t] 		Margin
Race to the WH [111] through October 2, 2024October 15, 202447.1%47.8%1.0%0.8%—3.3%Trump +0.8%
270toWin [112] October 1 – 11, 2024October 11, 202446.6%47.0%0.8%1.0%0.5%4.1%Trump +0.4%
Average47.0%47.5%0.8%0.8%0.6%3.3%Trump +0.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX [35] November 3–5, 20241,815 (RV)± 2.3%48%46%1%1%–4%
49.0% [d] 48.5%1.6%0.9%––
1,600 (LV)49%48%1%0%–2%
49.2% [d] 49.0%1.2%0.6%––
AtlasIntel [36] November 3–4, 20241,219 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%–1%0%1% [g]
AtlasIntel [39] November 1–2, 20241,310 (LV)± 3.0%50%47%–1%0%2% [g]
The New York Times/Siena College [41] October 28 – November 2, 20241,010 (RV)± 3.5%43%47%0%0%1%9%
1,010 (LV)45%48%0%0%0%7%
Focaldata [113] October 3 – November 1, 20241,787 (LV)–48%48%–1%1%2%
1,785 (RV)± 2.2%46%50%–1%1%2%
1,987 (A)–46%48%–2%1%4%
AtlasIntel [44] October 30–31, 20241,373 (LV)± 3.0%51%47%–1%0%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [114] October 28–31, 20241,123 (LV)–48%47%–1%1%3%
YouGov [45] [A] October 25–31, 2024987 (RV)± 4.2%48%47%0%1%–4%
949 (LV)49%48%0%1%–2%
AtlasIntel [47] October 25–29, 20241,665 (LV)± 3.0%48%48%–1%0%3% [g]
East Carolina University [115] October 24–29, 20241,250 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%0%0%0%2%
CNN/SSRS [116] October 23–28, 2024750 (LV)± 4.5%47%48%1%1%1%2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [117] October 25–27, 2024770 (LV)–48%46%–1%1%4%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov [118] October 16–23, 2024650 (LV)± 4.2%47%45%1%1%0%6% [u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [119] October 20–22, 2024679 (LV)–48%47%–1%0%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [57] October 16–20, 2024755 (RV)± 4.0%49%46%–1%3%1%
702 (LV)49%48%–1%1%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [120] October 16–18, 2024843 (LV)–48%45%–1%0%6%
AtlasIntel [58] October 12–17, 20241,674 (LV)± 2.0%49%50%0%1%0%–
Cygnal (R) [121] [N] October 6–15, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%47%1%0%1%4% [u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [122] October 12–14, 2024620 (LV)–48%46%–0%1%5%
Quinnipiac University [61] October 10–14, 20241,031 (LV)± 3.1%47%49%0%0%1%3% [u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [123] September 27 – October 2, 2024753 (LV)–47%45%–1%0%7%
Quinnipiac University [69] September 25–29, 2024953 (LV)± 3.2%49%47%1%1%0%2% [u]
East Carolina University [124] September 23–26, 20241,005 (LV)± 3.0%49%47%0%0%1%3%
AtlasIntel [75] September 20–25, 20241,173 (LV)± 3.0%47%51%1%1%0%–
CNN/SSRS [125] September 20–25, 2024931 (LV)± 3.9%48%48%1%0%1%2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [76] September 19–25, 2024411 (LV)–46%49%1%2%–2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [77] September 19–25, 2024889 (RV)± 3.0%46%48%–1%3%2%
828 (LV)47%49%–0%2%2%
Fox News [78] September 20−24, 2024991 (RV)± 3.0%47%48%1%1%1%2%
787 (LV)± 3.5%49%47%1%1%1%1%
The New York Times/Siena College [82] September 17–21, 2024682 (RV)± 4.2%46%46%–0%1%7%
682 (LV)47%45%–0%1%7%
Meredith College [126] September 18–20, 2024802 (LV)± 3.5%48%48%0%1%1%2% [u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [127] September 16–19, 2024868 (LV)–48%47%–0%0%5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D) [86] [J] September 11–17, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%46%1%1%1%3%
Cygnal (R) [128] [N] September 15–16, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%45%2%0%1%6% [u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [129] September 6–9, 2024495 (LV)–44%45%–0%0%11%
Quinnipiac University [91] September 4–8, 2024940 (LV)± 3.2%46%49%0%1%0%4% [f]
YouGov [130] [A] August 23 – September 3, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.9%47%46%0%1%–6% [g]
East Carolina University [131] August 26–28, 2024920 (LV)± 3.0%48%47%0%0%1%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [132] August 25–28, 20241,071 (LV)–45%44%–1%1%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [99] August 23–26, 2024700 (RV)± 4.0%47%48%–1%2%2%
645 (LV)48%48%–1%2%1%
Fox News [100] August 23–26, 2024999 (RV)± 3.0%48%47%2%1%1%1% [g]
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian		Other /
Undecided
Fox News [49] October 24–28, 20241,113 (RV)± 3.0%47%48%1%1%1%1%1%
872 (LV)49%47%1%1%1%1%–
The Wall Street Journal [66] September 28 – October 8, 2024600 (RV)± 5.0%46%45%0%1%1%2%5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R) [71] [F] September 23–29, 2024401 (LV)± 4.9%47%47%0%0%0%0%6%
Spry Strategies (R) [102] [M] August 14–20, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%47%3%–1%–4%
Focaldata [103] August 6–16, 2024702 (LV)± 3.7%46%47%5%–1%0%1%
702 (RV)44%47%6%–1%0%2%
702 (A)43%47%7%–1%0%2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [133] August 12–15, 2024601 (LV)–47%44%2%–0%1%6%
The New York Times/Siena College [104] August 9–14, 2024655 (RV)± 4.2%42%45%5%0%2%1%4%
655 (LV)44%46%4%0%1%1%4%
YouGov Blue (D) [134] [O] August 5–9, 2024802 (RV)± 3.9%46%46%2%0%0%0%5%
Navigator Research (D) [106] July 31 – August 8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%3%0%1%0%4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [107] July 26 – August 8, 2024403 (LV)–44%46%4%0%1%–5%
Cygnal (R) [135] [N] August 4–5, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%47%44%4%–0%1%4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [136] July 31 – August 3, 2024714 (LV)–44%41%4%–0%1%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [108] July 24–28, 2024706 (RV)± 4.0%45%44%5%–0%4%2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [137] July 22–24, 2024586 (LV)–46%43%4%–0%0%7%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [138] [P] July 17–20, 2024573 (RV)± 4.1%48%44%2%2%4%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

2024 US presidential election in North Carolina opinion polling.svg Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Quantus Insights (R) [90] [L] September 11–12, 2024815 (LV)± 3.4%49%42%9% [q]
Public Policy Polling (D) [138] [P] July 17–20, 2024573 (RV)± 4.1%50%46%4%
Emerson College [139] [Q] July 15–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%41%11%
Echelon Insights [140] [R] July 1–8, 2024610 (LV)± 5.0%47%45%8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [141] July 1–5, 2024696 (RV)± 4.0%46%43%11%
Spry Strategies (R) [142] June 7–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%48%44%8%
East Carolina University [143] May 31 – June 3, 20241,332 (LV)± 3.1%48%43%9%
North Star Opinion Research (R) [144] [K] May 29 – June 2, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%49%41%10%
Rasmussen Reports (R) [145] [S] May 26–27, 20241,053 (LV)± 3.0%51%43%6%
Change Research (D) [146] [T] May 13–18, 2024835 (LV)± 3.8%45%43%12%
Prime Group [147] [U] May 9–16, 2024472 (RV)–51%49%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [148] May 7–13, 2024704 (RV)± 4.0%49%42%9%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [149] May 6–13, 2024601 (LV)± 4.0%48%41%11%
High Point University [150] May 5–9, 2024804 (RV)± 3.2%44%42%14%
Emerson College [151] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%42%11%
52% [d] 48%–
John Zogby Strategies [152] [V] April 13–21, 2024641 (LV)–49%45%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [153] April 8–15, 2024703 (RV)± 4.0%51%41%8%
Mason-Dixon [154] April 9–13, 2024635 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%
Quinnipiac University [155] April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%48%46%6%
High Point University [156] March 22–30, 2024829(RV)± 3.4%45%42%14%
The Wall Street Journal [157] March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%
Marist College [158] March 11–14, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.6%51%48%1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [159] March 8–12, 2024699 (RV)± 4.0%49%43%8%
SurveyUSA [160] [C] March 3–9, 2024598 (LV)± 4.9%50%45%5%
Cygnal (R) [161] [W] March 6–7, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%40%15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [162] February 12–20, 2024704 (RV)± 5.0%50%41%9%
Emerson College [110] February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%44%9%
Fox News [163] February 8–12, 20241,099 (RV)± 3.0%50%45%5%
Meredith College [164] January 26–31, 2024760 (RV)± 3.5%44%39%17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [165] January 16–21, 2024706 (RV)± 4.0%49%39%12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [166] November 27 – December 6, 2023704 (RV)± 4.0%49%40%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [167] October 30 – November 7, 2023702 (RV)± 4.0%48%39%13%
Meredith College [168] November 1–5, 2023755 (RV)± 3.5%39%40%22% [v]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [169] October 5–10, 2023702 (RV)± 4.0%47%43%10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [170] October 7–9, 2023736 (LV)–43%38%20%
Change Research (D) [171] [T] September 1–5, 2023914 (LV)± 3.6%46%42%12%
Prime Group [172] [U] June 14–28, 2023500 (RV)–54%46%–
45%37%18% [w]
Opinion Diagnostics [173] June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%43%40%18%
Cygnal (R) [174] [W] March 26–27, 2023605 (LV)± 4.0%43%45%12%
Differentiators (R) [175] [X] January 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%45%48%7%
Emerson College [176] October 27–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%51%40%9%
Public Policy Polling (D) [177] [T] October 7–8, 2022606 (RV)–44%44%12%
SurveyUSA [178] [C] September 28 – October 2, 2022918 (RV)± 3.9%43%45%12%
Emerson College [179] September 15–16, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%47%42%11%
East Carolina University [180] September 7–10, 20221,020 (LV)± 3.6%46%45%9%
Blueprint Polling (D) [181] August 4–6, 2022656 (LV)± 3.8%45%39%17%
PEM Management Corporation (R) [182] [Y] July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%48%41%11%
East Carolina University [183] May 19–20, 2022635 (RV)± 4.5%46%37%16%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [138] [P] July 17–20, 2024573 (RV)± 4.1%48%42%2%–2%6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [184] July 16–18, 2024461 (LV)–45%39%5%–1%10% [x]
Emerson College [139] [Q] July 15–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%47%38%6%1%1%7% [x]
YouGov [185] [A] July 4–12, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.7%44%40%4%0%1%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [186] July 8–10, 2024420 (LV)–44%42%4%–1%9% [y]
Echelon Insights [140] [R] July 1–8, 2024610 (LV)± 5.0%43%41%7%2%1%6% [x]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [141] July 1–5, 2024696 (RV)± 4.0%42%40%7%1%1%9% [x]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [187] June 8–11, 2024534 (LV)–43%40%7%–1%9% [y]
North Star Opinion Research (R) [144] [K] May 29 – June 2, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%44%32%9%3%2%10%
Prime Group [147] [U] May 9–16, 2024472 (RV)–45%42%11%2%1%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [148] May 7–13, 2024704 (RV)± 4.0%46%38%7%1%1%7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [149] May 6–13, 2024601 (LV)± 4.0%44%36%8%3%1%8%
Emerson College [151] April 25–29, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%37%6%1%1%9%
Meeting Street Insights (R) [188] [Z] April 25–28, 2024500 (RV)± 4.4%40%35%11%–2%12% [z]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [153] April 8–15, 2024703 (RV)± 4.0%48%38%5%1%0%8%
Quinnipiac University [155] April 4–8, 20241,401 (RV)± 2.6%41%38%12%3%3%3%
The Wall Street Journal [157] March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%42%34%10%2%1%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [159] March 8–12, 2024699 (RV)± 4.0%45%39%7%1%0%8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [162] February 12–20, 2024704 (RV)± 5.0%45%35%9%1%1%9%
Emerson College [110] February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%46%37%5%1%1%10%
East Carolina University [189] February 9–12, 20241,207 (LV)± 3.3%47%44%2%1%1%5%
Fox News [163] February 8–12, 20241,099 (RV)± 3.0%46%37%8%1%2%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [190] January 16–21, 2024706 (RV)± 4.0%45%32%9%1%1%12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [191] November 27 – December 6, 2023704 (RV)± 4.0%45%34%8%1%1%11%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Spry Strategies (R) [142] June 7–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%45%37%8%10%
Change Research (D) [146] [T] May 13–18, 2024835 (LV)± 3.8%41%38%11%10%
Cygnal (R) [192] [N] May 4–5, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%43%38%9%10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [193] May 2–4, 2024700 (LV)–44%37%7%12%
Meredith College [194] April 11–17, 2024711 (LV)± 3.5%41%39%9%11%
Cygnal (R) [195] [W] April 7–8, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%43%39%7%11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [196] March 14–17, 2024642 (LV)–43%39%8%10%
Marist College [158] March 11–14, 20241,197 (RV)± 3.6%46%43%11%–
North Star Opinion Research (R) [197] [AA] January 30 – February 4, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%32%16%13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [198] December 28–30, 20231,220 (LV)–37%33%11%19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [199] November 27–29, 2023620 (LV)–44%35%8%13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [170] October 7–9, 2023736 (LV)–41%38%9%14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult [200] October 30 – November 7, 2023702 (RV)± 4.0%42%33%9%2%14%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [152] [V] April 13–21, 2024641 (LV)–45%39%16%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [152] [V] April 13–21, 2024641 (LV)–50%40%10%

Donald Trump vs. Roy Cooper vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Roy
Cooper
Democratic		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [138] [P] July 17–20, 2024573 (RV)± 4.1%45%41%3%2%9%

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Donald
Trump
Republican		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College [110] February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%49%34%17%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Fox News [163] February 8–12, 20241,099 (RV)± 3.0%46%41%13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
East Carolina University [189] February 9–12, 20241,207 (LV)± 3.3%32%40%10%2%0%16%
Fox News [163] February 8–12, 20241,099 (RV)± 3.0%31%33%19%2%2%13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [199] November 27–29, 2023620 (LV)–36%33%12%18%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics [173] June 5–7, 2023902 (LV)± 3.3%46%40%13%
Cygnal (R) [174] [W] March 26–27, 2023605 (LV)± 4.0%44%41%15%
Differentiators (R) [175] [X] January 9–12, 2023500 (LV)± 4.5%49%44%7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [199] November 27–29, 2023620 (LV)–38%34%12%4%12%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [c] 		Margin
of error		Mike
Pence
Republican		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R) [174] [W] March 26–27, 2023605 (LV)± 4.0%39%41%20%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina [201]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican
2,898,423 50.86% +0.93%
Democratic
2,715,37547.65%−0.94%
Green
24,7620.43%+0.21%
Libertarian
22,1250.39%−0.49%
Justice for All
12,0990.21%+0.21%
Constitution
6,8630.12%−0.02%
Write-in 19,4940.33%+0.09%
Total votes5,699,141 100.00% N/A

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Kamala Harris
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Alamance 47,93753.36%40,62445.22%1,2701.41%7,3138.14%89,831
Alexander 16,40479.33%4,06019.64%2131.03%12,34459.69%20,677
Alleghany 4,90075.43%1,53323.60%630.97%3,36751.83%6,496
Anson 5,52550.80%5,25348.30%970.89%2722.50%10,875
Ashe 11,62971.55%4,43127.26%1931.19%7,19844.29%16,253
Avery 7,18175.68%2,22023.40%880.93%4,96152.28%9,489
Beaufort 17,29665.09%9,04934.05%2270.85%8,24731.04%26,572
Bertie 3,84041.80%5,27957.47%670.73%-1,439-15.67%9,186
Bladen 10,03559.86%6,62039.49%1090.65%3,41520.37%16,764
Brunswick 67,65861.86%40,55737.08%1,1631.06%27,10124.78%109,378
Buncombe 59,01636.77%98,66261.47%2,8321.76%-39,646-24.70%160,510
Burke 32,13070.08%13,27228.95%4450.97%18,85841.13%45,847
Cabarrus 63,74653.03%54,49445.34%1,9621.63%9,2527.69%120,202
Caldwell 33,00975.81%10,14623.30%3850.88%22,86352.51%43,540
Camden 4,71674.81%1,52224.14%661.05%3,19450.67%6,304
Carteret 32,50870.95%12,81327.97%4961.08%19,69542.98%45,817
Caswell 7,44561.84%4,49337.32%1020.85%2,95224.52%12,040
Catawba 59,57768.39%26,56930.50%9631.11%33,00837.89%87,109
Chatham 22,50743.03%29,01455.48%7801.49%-6,507-12.45%52,301
Cherokee 13,88377.89%3,68620.68%2551.43%10,19757.21%17,824
Chowan 4,58760.74%2,89538.33%700.93%1,69222.41%7,552
Clay 5,76174.55%1,89924.57%680.88%3,86249.98%7,728
Cleveland 34,65467.02%16,60332.11%4490.87%18,05134.91%51,706
Columbus 17,59266.63%8,64832.76%1620.61%8,94433.87%26,402
Craven 33,47759.60%22,01139.18%6851.22%11,46620.42%56,173
Cumberland 59,84042.59%78,63155.96%2,0421.45%-18,791-13.37%140,513
Currituck 13,23573.31%4,60425.50%2141.19%8,63147.81%18,053
Dare 14,79258.71%10,07439.98%3301.31%4,71818.73%25,196
Davidson 67,95972.72%24,15025.84%1,3431.44%43,80946.88%93,452
Davie 19,39872.25%6,98826.03%4641.73%12,41046.22%26,850
Duplin 14,67764.10%8,05735.19%1640.72%6,62028.91%22,898
Durham 32,85318.16%144,45079.85%3,6091.99%-111,597-61.69%180,912
Edgecombe 9,35538.26%14,90060.95%1930.79%-5,545-22.69%24,448
Forsyth 87,29242.64%114,14555.76%3,2891.61%-26,853-13.12%204,726
Franklin 23,93856.10%18,16742.58%5621.32%5,77113.52%42,667
Gaston 73,82861.91%44,06236.95%1,3661.15%29,76624.96%119,256
Gates 3,53860.29%2,26838.65%621.06%1,27021.64%5,868
Graham 3,88381.25%83917.56%571.19%3,04463.69%4,779
Granville 17,38354.15%14,36544.75%3561.11%3,0189.40%32,104
Greene 4,96558.76%3,43740.67%480.57%1,52818.09%8,450
Guilford 109,07738.27%171,11860.03%4,8581.70%-62,041-21.76%285,053
Halifax 9,77840.80%14,01458.48%1730.72%-4,236-17.68%23,965
Harnett 39,44061.86%23,47236.81%8451.33%15,96825.05%63,757
Haywood 23,39361.80%13,91336.76%5451.44%9,48025.04%37,851
Henderson 39,49756.45%29,36141.96%1,1161.59%10,13614.49%69,974
Hertford 3,56136.18%6,19162.90%910.92%-2,630-26.72%9,843
Hoke 10,54746.33%11,89652.25%3241.42%-1,349-5.92%22,767
Hyde 1,46560.51%93138.46%251.03%53422.05%2,421
Iredell 72,80165.66%36,73933.14%1,3351.20%36,06232.52%110,875
Jackson 11,79653.76%9,74644.42%4001.82%2,0509.34%21,942
Johnston 74,87860.06%48,11638.59%1,6841.35%26,76221.47%124,678
Jones 3,40962.40%2,00736.74%470.86%1,40225.66%5,463
Lee 17,48958.14%12,24540.71%3471.15%5,24417.43%30,081
Lenoir 14,56452.95%12,70046.18%2390.87%1,8646.77%27,503
Lincoln 40,18372.29%14,84226.70%5571.00%25,34145.59%55,582
Macon 14,98168.30%6,67530.43%2781.27%8,30637.87%21,934
Madison 8,27560.75%5,09037.37%2561.88%3,18523.38%13,621
Martin 6,60154.83%5,36044.52%790.66%1,24110.31%12,040
McDowell 17,52074.06%5,91124.99%2240.95%11,60949.07%23,655
Mecklenburg 187,77032.51%376,45465.19%13,2812.30%-188,684-32.68%577,505
Mitchell 6,84377.39%1,91521.66%840.95%4,92855.73%8,842
Montgomery 9,04468.48%4,05530.71%1070.81%4,98937.77%13,206
Moore 39,61764.12%21,43634.69%7371.19%18,18129.43%61,790
Nash 26,43150.37%25,50848.61%5321.01%9231.76%52,471
New Hanover 67,94948.98%68,81449.60%1,9711.42%-865-0.62%138,734
Northampton 3,90542.38%5,23956.85%710.77%-1,334-14.47%9,215
Onslow 54,96067.29%25,68431.44%1,0371.27%29,27635.85%81,681
Orange 20,80623.70%65,44474.53%1,5571.77%-44,638-50.83%87,807
Pamlico 5,22965.56%2,67633.55%710.89%2,55332.01%7,976
Pasquotank 10,53751.80%9,54946.94%2571.26%9884.86%20,343
Pender 26,04266.93%12,46032.02%4071.05%13,58234.91%38,909
Perquimans 5,27868.85%2,26929.60%1191.55%3,00939.25%7,666
Person 13,50961.30%8,29537.64%2321.05%5,21423.66%22,036
Pitt 40,40346.37%45,59552.33%1,1321.30%-5,192-5.96%87,130
Polk 8,10762.04%4,82736.94%1341.03%3,28025.10%13,068
Randolph 59,35778.09%15,95120.99%7000.92%43,40657.10%76,008
Richmond 11,93160.04%7,78739.18%1550.78%4,14420.86%19,873
Robeson 29,64763.39%16,72835.77%3950.84%12,91927.62%46,770
Rockingham 33,44767.44%15,67631.61%4720.95%17,77135.83%49,595
Rowan 50,80767.39%23,78831.55%7991.06%27,01935.84%75,394
Rutherford 25,45673.42%8,91425.71%3000.87%16,54247.71%34,670
Sampson 18,17864.46%9,79734.74%2260.80%8,38129.72%28,201
Scotland 7,76753.10%6,75446.18%1050.72%1,0136.92%14,626
Stanly 27,51874.95%8,88124.19%3150.86%18,63750.76%36,714
Stokes 21,54879.29%5,38019.80%2470.91%16,16859.49%27,175
Surry 28,56576.16%8,61322.96%3300.88%19,95253.20%37,508
Swain 4,31161.13%2,64337.48%981.39%1,66823.65%7,052
Transylvania 11,49255.30%8,97243.18%3161.52%2,52012.12%20,780
Tyrrell 1,05760.16%68038.70%201.14%37721.46%1,757
Union 86,27161.91%51,16836.72%1,9161.37%35,10325.19%139,355
Vance 8,61442.87%11,29256.20%1860.93%-2,678-13.33%20,092
Wake 236,73536.22%402,98461.66%13,8612.12%-166,249-25.44%653,580
Warren 3,97639.71%5,87258.64%1651.65%-1,896-18.93%10,013
Washington 2,76846.57%3,13852.79%380.64%-370-6.22%5,944
Watauga 15,25446.09%17,22552.05%6161.86%-1,971-5.96%33,095
Wayne 31,58057.67%22,61841.30%5641.03%8,96216.37%54,762
Wilkes 28,81279.33%7,19419.81%3140.86%21,61859.52%36,320
Wilson 19,75049.32%19,90949.72%3860.96%-159-0.40%40,045
Yadkin 16,43980.60%3,73918.33%2191.07%12,70062.27%20,397
Yancey 7,50966.55%3,63532.22%1391.23%3,87434.33%11,283
Totals2,898,42350.86%2,715,37547.65%85,3431.49%183,0483.21%5,699,141

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

North Carolina County Swing 2024 Presidential Election.svg
North Carolina County Flips 2024 Presidential Election.svg

By congressional district

Trump won 11 of 14 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat. [202]

DistrictTrumpHarrisRepresentative
1st 51%48% Don Davis
2nd 32%66% Deborah Ross
3rd 60%39% Greg Murphy
4th 26%72% Valerie Foushee
5th 58%41% Virginia Foxx
6th 58%41% Addison McDowell
7th 56%42% David Rouzer
8th 59%40% Mark Harris
9th 57%41% Richard Hudson
10th 58%41% Pat Harrigan
11th 54%44% Chuck Edwards
12th 26%72% Alma Adams
13th 58%41% Brad Knott
14th 57%42% Tim Moore

Analysis

Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s – a trend primarily attributed to population growth – as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election by less than a 4% margin since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. However, Republicans have won every single federal statewide race in North Carolina since 2010. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 and has been narrowly won by Republican nominee Donald Trump in the past two cycles. This presidential election marks the first time since 2012 that the winning candidate won the election with an absolute majority of the vote.

Trump's margin of victory was more than double that of his 2020 margin, though it was slightly less than his 2016 margin. The state had one of the smallest swings in the nation from 2020 to 2024, shifting rightward by 1.9%, smaller than all other swing states except Wisconsin (which swung by 1.5%). North Carolina was among 23 states where Harris posted a better margin than Hillary Clinton in 2016. [aa] This marked the fifth consecutive election where North Carolina was decided by less than 5%, the longest ongoing such streak out of any state. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying New Hanover County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956. This is the first time since 2008 that the state voted for the winner of the national popular vote. Anson County voted Republican for the first time since 1972 and Pasquotank County since 1988.

Potentially due to the effects of Hurricane Helene, Western North Carolina was one of the few areas of the country to swing towards the Democrats between 2020 and 2024. Despite over 90% of American counties shifting toward Trump during this time period, [203] ten counties in the region bucked this trend and supported Harris to a greater extent than Joe Biden. [ab]

Although Harris lost the state--no Democratic presidential nominee has won it since 2008--down-ballot statewide North Carolina Democrats won many of their races in the 2024 North Carolina elections, likely helped by Harris' gains in many counties. These included the 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election, the 2024 North Carolina lieutenant gubernatorial election, the 2024 North Carolina Attorney General election, the 2024 North Carolina Secretary of State election, Mo Green won the Superintendent of Public Instruction election, and the 2024 North Carolina Supreme Court election (which was won by just 734 votes). [205]

Exit poll data

2024 presidential election in North Carolina voter demographics [206]
Demographic subgroupTrumpHarris% of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals49521
Moderates386040
Conservatives90939
Party
Democrats 39632
Republicans 96334
Independents514735
Gender
Men574147
Women455453
Race/ethnicity
White623769
Black128619
Latino50498
Asiann/an/a2
All other racesn/an/a2
Gender by race/ethnicity
White men663234
White women584136
Black men20798
Black women89211
Latino men62374
Latina women38604
All other races49484
White born-again or evangelical Christian?
Yes871231
No346469
Age
18–29 years old485114
30–44 years old455322
45–64 years old534538
65 and older544525
First time voter
Yes60389
No514891
2020 presidential vote
Biden49543
Trump97344
Another candidaten/an/a2
Did not vote564210
Education
No college degree574159
College graduate415741
Educational attainment
Never attended college613816
Some college524725
Associate degree 623617
Bachelor's degree455325
Advanced degree366216
Education by race
White college graduates475131
White no college degree752438
Non-white college graduates257210
Non-white no college degree267220
Education by gender among White voters
White college graduate women435616
White women no degree702920
White college graduate men524615
White men no degree782119
Voters of color267231
Area type
Urban326728
Suburban574153
Rural613820
Biden job approval
Strongly disapprove96348
Somewhat disapprove33629
Somewhat approve79123
Strongly approve29818
Feeling about the way things are going in U.S.
Angry782128
Dissatisfied603944
Satisfied99020
Enthusiastic7916
Quality of candidate that mattered most
Has ability to lead693133
Can bring needed change692927
Has good judgment148117
Cares about people like me297021
Vote for president mainly
For your candidate534678
Against their opponent415619
Issue regarded as most important
Democracy148531
Economy762337
Abortion237512
Immigration93613
Foreign policyn/an/a4
Democracy threatened in the United States
Democracy in the U.S. very threatened594038
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat threatened475135
Democracy in the U.S. somewhat secure435617
Democracy in the U.S. very secure34667
Confident election being conducted fairly and accurately
Very confident227742
Somewhat confident633638
Not very confident871212
Not at all confidentn/an/a5
Condition of the nation's economy
Poor90934
Not so good554235
Good59527
Excellentn/an/a4
Family's financial situation today
Worse than four years ago841548
About the same277128
Better than four years ago128623
Abortion should be
Legal in all cases158429
Legal in most cases435331
Illegal in most cases92827
Illegal in all cases79209
Who do you trust more to handle racial issues?
Harris69152
Trump99145

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ 464 votes (9.1%) for David (TrimeTaveler) Dunlap, 320 votes (6.3%) for Beau Lindsey, 162 votes (3.2%) for Josh "Toad" Anderson.
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 "Other" with 2%
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "Someone else" with 1%
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 "Other" with 1%
  8. 1 2 3 4 5 "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ↑ "Another party's candidates" with 2%
  10. 1 2 3 "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  11. ↑ "Another candidate" with 4%
  12. ↑ "Other" with 4%
  13. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  14. ↑ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  15. ↑ "Third party candidates" & "Undecided" with 2%
  16. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 3%
  17. 1 2 "Some other candidate" with 3%
  18. ↑ "Would not vote" with 2%
  19. 1 2 "Another candidate" with 2%
  20. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  21. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  22. ↑ "Someone else" with 17%
  23. ↑ No Labels candidate
  24. 1 2 3 4 Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  25. 1 2 Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  26. ↑ Charles Ballay (L) with 2%
  27. ↑ The other states were Alaska, Oregon, Washington, Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut, Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire.
  28. ↑ These were Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, Mitchell, Polk and Transylvania. [204]

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 3 4 Poll conducted for The Times , Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  2. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  3. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  8. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  9. ↑ Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  10. 1 2 Poll commissioned by AARP
  11. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  12. 1 2 Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  13. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  14. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
  15. ↑ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  16. 1 2 3 4 Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  17. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  18. 1 2 Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  19. ↑ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  20. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  21. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  22. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  23. 1 2 3 4 5 Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  24. 1 2 Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
  25. ↑ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  26. ↑ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
  27. ↑ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

References

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  2. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  3. ↑ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 19, 2024.
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