2024 United States presidential election in Michigan

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2024 United States presidential election in Michigan
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←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump 2023 (cropped).jpg Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. by Gage Skidmore.jpg
Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive)		 Donald Trump
(presumptive)		 Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Party Democratic Republican Natural Law
Home state Delaware Florida California
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive)		 TBA Nicole Shanahan
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 15 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. [1] Michigan is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [2]

On April 18, 2024, Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot. He has also been nominated by the Natural Law Party. [3]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Incumbent United States President Joe Biden won the Democratic primary race, held on February 27, 2024. [4]

Michigan Democratic primary, February 27, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)625,22181.1%115115
Uncommitted101,62313.2%22
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)22,8653.0%
Dean Phillips 20,6842.7%
Write-in votes 178<0.1%
Total:770,571100%11723140
Source: [5]

Republican primary

Former United States President Donald Trump won the Republican primary race, held on February 27, 2024. [6]

Michigan Republican primary, February 27, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 761,16368.1%1212
Nikki Haley 297,12426.6%44
Uncommitted33,6493.0%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)13,4561.2%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)4,7940.4%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)3,7020.3%
Ryan Binkley 2,3480.2%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)1,0770.1%
Total:1,117,313100.0%1616
Source: [7] [8]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [9] TossupDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [10] TossupMarch 14, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] Lean DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [12] TossupDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [13] TossupDecember 30, 2023
CNN [14] Lean R (flip)January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Fox News April 11–16, 20241,126 (RV)± 3.0%46%49%5%
Marketing Resource Group April 8–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%36%42%22% [lower-alpha 2]
The Bullfinch Group March 29 – April 3, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%42%39%19%
Spry Strategies March 25–28, 2024709 (LV)± 3.7%44%48%8%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%45%48%7%
Echelon Insights [upper-alpha 1] March 12–19, 2024400 (LV)± 5.3%45%51%4%
Emerson College March 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%50%–
CNN/SSRS March 13–18, 20241,097 (RV)± 3.6%42%50%8%
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 2] March 15–16, 2024627 (LV)± 3.9%44%47%9%
Quinnipiac University March 8–12, 20241,487 (RV)± 2.5%45%48%7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024698 (RV)± 4.0%45%45%10%
North Star Opinion Research [upper-alpha 3] February 22–25, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%43%43%13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024702 (RV)± 4.0%44%46%10%
Emerson College February 20–24, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%44%46%10%
EPIC-MRA February 13–18, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%41%45%14%
Fox News February 8–12, 20241,106 (RV)± 3.0%45%47%8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024703 (RV)± 4.0%42%47%7%
Target Insyght January 4–10, 2024800 (RV)–45%41%14%
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 4] January 2–6, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%39%47%14%
John Zogby Strategies January 2–4, 2024602 (LV)–44%47%9%
CNN/SSRS November 29 – December 6, 20231,197 (RV)± 3.4%40%50%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023703 (RV)± 4.0%42%46%12%
EPIC-MRA November 10–16, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%41%46%13%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023700 (RV)± 4.0%43%43%14%
Emerson College October 30 – November 4, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%41%16%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023616 (RV)± 4.4%43%48%9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 5–10, 2023706 (RV)± 4.0%44%44%12%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023820 (LV)–41%41%17%
Marketing Resource Group October 2–8, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%35%42%22%
Emerson College October 1–4, 2023468 (RV)± 4.5%44%43%8%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 5] September 26–27, 2023679 (RV)± 3.8%48%44%8%
Susquehanna Polling & Research September 7–12, 2023700 (RV)± 3.7%46%43%11%
EPIC-MRA August 6–11, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%46%45%9%
Emerson College August 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%44%44%13%
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 2] July 11–13, 2023639 (LV)± 4.0%45%43%13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 6] Jul 8–10, 2023500 (RV)± 4.38%45%44%9%
EPIC-MRA June 8–14, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%44%44%12%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 6] April 17–19, 2023500 (V)± 3.6%45%42%12%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 7] December 6–7, 2022763 (V)± 3.6%50%43%7%
EPIC-MRA November 30 – December 6, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%47%43%10%
Emerson College October 28–31, 2022900 (LV)± 3.2%44%47%9%
Emerson College October 12–14, 2022580 (LV)± 4.0%44%44%12%
EPIC-MRA September 15–19, 2022600 (LV)–48%44%8%
Blueprint Polling (D) August 15–16, 2022611 (LV)± 4.0%41%41%19%
Blueprint Polling (D) February 1–4, 2022632 (LV)± 3.9%38%40%22%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 8] November 11–16, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%41%53%6%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Fox News April 11–16, 20241,126 (RV)± 3.0%40%42%9%2%2%5%
Marketing Resource Group April 8–11, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%34%37%13%2%1%13%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%37%39%12%2%2%8%
Emerson College March 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%43%5%1%1%10%
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 2] March 15–16, 2024627 (LV)± 3.9%42%44%6%1%1%6%
Quinnipiac University March 8–12, 20241,487 (RV)± 2.5%36%41%10%3%4%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024698 (RV)± 4.0%40%40%9%3%2%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024702 (RV)± 4.0%40%41%9%1%1%8%
Emerson College February 20–24, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%39%42%6%1%1%11%
Fox News February 8–12, 20241,106 (RV)± 3.0%37%42%11%2%3%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024703 (RV)± 4.0%37%43%8%1%1%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023703 (RV)± 4.0%35%39%10%2%1%13%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Spry Strategies March 25–28, 2024709 (LV)± 3.7%40%43%9%8%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 14–17, 2024616 (LV)–39%41%6%14%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies December 28–30, 2023832 (LV)–37%39%9%15%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023874 (LV)–38%39%9%13%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023616 (LV)± 4.4%31%34%26%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023820 (LV)–38%40%7%15%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS March 13–18, 20241,097 (RV)± 3.6%34%40%18%4%4%
CNN/SSRS November 29 – December 6, 20231,197 (RV)± 3.4%31%39%20%6%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023700 (RV)± 4.0%38%37%10%2%13%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Cornel
West
Green		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College August 1–2, 20231,121 (LV)± 2.9%41%43%4%11%
Hypothetical polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023616 (RV)± 4.4%45%47%8%
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College/The Hill Mar 14–18, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%50%45%6%
Marketing Resource Group October 2–8, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%47%40%13%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Fox News February 8–12, 20241,106 (RV)± 3.0%42%43%15%
Glengariff Group [upper-alpha 9] January 2–6, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%34%44%22%
CNN/SSRS November 29 – December 6, 20231,197 (RV)± 3.4%38%50%12%
EPIC-MRA November 10–16, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%36%47%17%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023616 (RV)± 4.4%36%46%18%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West. vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Fox News February 8–12, 20241,106 (RV)± 3.0%35%26%23%3%3%33%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023874 (LV)–37%25%18%20%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS November 29 – December 6, 20231,197 (RV)± 3.4%42%49%9%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023616 (RV)± 4.4%44%43%13%
Susquehanna Polling & Research September 7–12, 2023700 (RV)± 3.7%48%42%10%
Mitchell Research [upper-alpha 2] July 11–13, 2023639 (LV)± 4.0%44%31%25%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 6] July 8–10, 2023500 (RV)± 4.38%44%46%7%
EPIC-MRA June 8–14, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%44%45%11%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 6] April 17–19, 2023500 (LV)± 4.4%43%45%12%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023874 (LV)–39%30%13%2%15%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ "Someone else" with 14%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  2. 1 2 3 4 Poll commissioned by MIRS
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
  4. ↑ Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV
  5. ↑ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
  6. 1 2 3 4 Poll commissioned by Citizens Awareness Project
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, a sponsor for the Democratic Party
  8. ↑ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  9. ↑ Poll commissioned by The Detroit News & WDIV-TV

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References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ↑ "Robert F. Kennedy Jr. gets spot on Michigan's ballot as Natural Law Party nominee". The Detroit News. Retrieved April 19, 2024.
  4. ↑ Min Kim, Seung (February 27, 2024). "Trump and Biden win Michigan primary. But voters uncommitted to either candidate demand attention". Associated Press. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  5. ↑ "2024 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  6. ↑ Min Kim, Seung (February 27, 2024). "Trump and Biden win Michigan primary. But voters uncommitted to either candidate demand attention". Associated Press. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Secretary Benson releases 2024 presidential primary candidate list". Michigan Secretary of State . Retrieved December 8, 2023.[ failed verification ]
  8. ↑ "2024 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. February 27, 2024. Retrieved March 2, 2024.
  9. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 5, 2024. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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