2012 United States Senate election in Michigan

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2012 United States Senate election in Michigan
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  Debbie Stabenow, official portrait.jpg Pete Hoekstra, official portrait, 111th Congress.jpg
Nominee Debbie Stabenow Pete Hoekstra
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,735,8261,767,386
Percentage58.80%37.98%
2012 United States Senate election in Michigan results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Michigan by Congressional District.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Michigan results map by municipality.svg
Stabenow:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Hoekstra:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     
U.S. senator before election

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Debbie Stabenow
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Michigan was held on November 6, 2012, alongside the 2012 United States presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Debbie Stabenow was re-elected in 2006 with 57% of the vote to 41%. She defeated Oakland County sheriff and former State Senate Majority Leader Michael Bouchard after narrowly defeating Republican incumbent Spencer Abraham in 2000. The deadline for candidates to file for the August 7 primary was May 15. [1] [2] Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Debbie Stabenow was re-elected to a third term after being unopposed in the Democratic primary. The Republican nominee was former Congressman Pete Hoekstra. Stabenow defeated Hoekstra by a landslide 20.8% margin and nearly one million votes.

Democratic primary

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 702,773 100.00%
Total votes702,773 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Qualified/On ballot

Filed to run, but failed to qualify

Declined to file

Campaign

The GOP primary campaign was mainly a battle between Hoekstra and Durant as they were the most visible in running campaign ads. Despite Durant's attack ads, Hoekstra was leading in the polls for the Republican nomination. [25]

On July 20 Glenn suspended his campaign and endorsed Durant; however, his name was still on the ballot due to the time of his withdrawal. [4]

Hoekstra ad controversy

Hoekstra targeted Democratic incumbent Debbie Stabenow with a television ad [26] which ran statewide during the 2012 Super Bowl. The 30-second ad opened with the sound of a gong and showed an Asian woman riding a bike in a rice paddy and talking in pidgin English. The ad is critical of government spending by Stabenow and mocks her name with the Asian woman saying "Thank you, Michigan Senator Debbie Spenditnow". [27] The commercial asks viewers to visit Hoekstra's website which has statistics about federal spending beside images of Chinese flags, currency and stereotypical Chinatown font. [28] In the HTML code on Hoekstra's site the woman in the ad was reportedly previously identified as "yellowgirl." [29] It has since been removed.

Asian-American groups called the ad "very disturbing", national GOP consultant Mike Murphy said it was "really, really dumb", and Foreign Policy magazine managing editor Blake Hounshell called it "despicable." A coalition of black ministers in Detroit called for Hoekstra to apologize. Two of Hoekstra's GOP opponents, Clark Durant and Gary Glenn, questioned whether Hoekstra is the right candidate for Republicans to support. [30] The ad was called "blatantly racist" by Michael Yaki, former aide to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and a member of the U.S. Commission on Civil Rights. Journalist James Fallows of The Atlantic called it the "most revolting ad". [31] The NAACP denounced the ad as an "unnecessary race card." [32] Some warned the ad would revive discrimination against Asian-Americans in Michigan where smashing imported cars was common in the 1980s, and in 1982 Chinese-American Vincent Chin was beaten to death by two unemployed autoworkers angry about Japanese competition. [33] Critics also pointed out that Hoekstra voted for the $700-billion Wall Street bailout and voted for trillions more in deficit spending while he was in Congress. [27]

A Public Policy Polling poll released on show of February 14ed Stabenow leading Hoekstra 51%-37%. [34] In April 2012, Stabenow's campaign reported that she had had her best fundraising quarter ever, taking $1.5m from January to March 2012, which they say was in part due to the advertisement. [35] Hoekstra's campaign, meanwhile, reported disappointing fundraising numbers for the first quarter of 2012, raising just $700,000, down almost $300,000 from the final quarter of 2011. [36]

Despite the criticism, the ad was a factor in Hoekstra's Republican primary victory. [37]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Clark
Durant		Gary
Glenn		Randy
Hekman		Pete
Hoekstra		Peter
Konetchy		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [38] May 24–27, 2012360±5.2%11%4%4%42%0%38%
Public Policy Polling [39] July 21–23, 2012452±4.6%17%—4%51%1%26%

Results

Republican primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Pete Hoekstra 398,793 54.2
Republican Clark Durant246,58433.5
Republican Randy Hekman49,0806.7
Republican Gary Glenn40,7265.5
Total votes735,183 100.0

General election

Candidates

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Debbie Stabenow (D)$10,625,660$11,376,831$1,281,907$0
Pete Hoekstra (R)$5,827,123$5,550,301$277,855$0
Scott Boman (L)$10,280$10,265$12$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [45]

Top contributors

[46]

Debbie StabenowContributionPete HoekstraContribution
EMILY's List $107,650PVS Chemicals$40,000
DTE Energy $89,150Caidan Management$33,000
JP Morgan Chase & Co $70,300 Amway $31,300
Blue Cross & Blue Shield $51,682 Dickstein Shapiro LLP $20,999
University of Michigan $45,362Haworth Inc.$20,000
Vestar Capital Partners $39,950 American Axle & Manufacturing $17,500
Demmer Corp$39,800Centra Inc$17,000
General Motors $38,350Byrne Electrical Specialists$15,500
Ford Motor Co $35,375RA Miller Industries$15,000
Goldman Sachs $34,500Suburban Collection$15,000

Top industries

[47]

Debbie StabenowContributionPete HoekstraContribution
Lawyers/Law Firms $622,208Retired$329,199
Financial Institutions $589,188 Real Estate $124,050
Health Professionals $454,525 Republican/Conservative$105,400
Retired$377,484 Manufacturing & Distributing$84,300
Lobbyists $340,063 Leadership PACs $83,750
Hospitals/Nursing Homes $316,122Lawyers/Law Firms$82,059
Agribusiness $287,603 Automotive industry $68,150
Insurance $286,675 Chemical Industry $58,500
Women's Issues $277,570 Health Services/HMOs $58,000
Leadership PACs$263,500Business Services$56,493

Debates

A number of United States Senate Debates were held in the 2012 election cycle, but none included more than two of the general election candidates at a time. Incumbent senator Debbie Stabenow did not attend any of them. [48] Before the primary, non-partisan Tea Party groups hosted debates which were open to all candidates, however all but one were attended exclusively by Republican primary candidates. [49] The exception being the Romeo Area Tea Party Forum, on May 21, 2012, which included Scotty Boman after he changed his affiliation from Republican to Libertarian. Republican Pete Hoekstra had originally been scheduled to participate in the debate, but withdrew because he objected to the participation of one of the candidates. [50] The Romeo forum was hosted by WJR AM radio talk show host Frank Beckmann who said the candidate Hoekstra objected to was Boman. [51]

There were debates in Dewitt, [52] Zeeland, [53] and Dearborn [54] which were attended by both Pete Hoekstra and Scotty Boman who both qualified for the general election. [55]

After the primary election, some forums were held which were attended by one of the invited United States Senate Candidates, but only two post-primary debates were held where more than one general election candidate attended: Libertarian Scotty Boman and Green Party candidate Harley Mikkelson attended Forums hosted by the League of Women Voters of Alpena County on October 23, [56] and Gaylord High School on October 24. [57] [58]

Controversy about debate qualifications

Since 1996, WGVU and the Detroit Economic Club hosted United States Senate debates that would feature all United States Senate candidates who had met certain qualifications. [59] In 1994 all balloted candidates were included in the televised debate on WKAR, [60] but since then only major party candidates qualified. Pete Hoekstra and Debbie Stabenow had agreed in principle to debate, but failed to reach a consensus on the number of debates. [61] On October 9 Scotty Boman issued a press release in which he claimed polling results [62] qualified him for the debates. [63] On October 11 the Stabenow campaign issued a statement saying she was "…ending the ongoing debate over debates, due to Congressman Hoekstra's refusal to accept the traditional U.S. Senate debates and his constant political attacks.". [48] The Hoekstra campaign responded, "Debbie Stabenow's campaign refused to negotiate in good faith during the entire process." [48]

Hoekstra continued to ask Stabenow to debate him, and attended at least three debates at which he was the only participant. On October 11 he attended a health care debate sponsored by the Independent Choice Network. [64] On October 18 he attended a debate in Midland which was hosted by a group of local business leaders. [65] Scotty Boman offered to participate in the October 18 debate, but Hoekstra Campaign Manager Greg VanWoerkom said it was too late for Boman to participate since he had his chance to debate Hoekstra before the August primary, when he was running as a Republican. [66] At the time Hoekstra was scheduled to debate with Harley Mikkelson, and Boman at Gaylord High School on October 24, [58] but Hoekstra did not attend it. [58] On October 23 Hoekstra held a debate in Kentwood Michigan. [67]

As an alternative to the traditional WGVU debate, the station produced two back to back interviews with Stabenow and Hoekstra. [68]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [69] Likely DNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [70] Likely DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [71] Safe DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [72] Likely DNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Pete
Hoekstra (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [73] December 3–6, 20101,224±2.8%45%44%—11%
EPIC-MRA [74] February 12–17, 2011600±4.0%44%42%—14%
Public Policy Polling [75] March 18–20, 2011502±4.4%50%38%—12%
Public Policy Polling [76] July 21–24, 2011593±4.0%50%41%—9%
EPIC-MRA [77] August 13–16, 2011600±4.0%47%38%—15%
EPIC-MRA [78] November 13–16, 2011600±4.0%48%42%—10%
Wilson Research [79] January 9–11, 2012601±n/a47%41%—12%
Public Policy Polling [80] February 10–12, 2012560±4.1%51%37%—12%
NBC News/Marist [81] February 19–20, 20123,149±1.8%53%32%—15%
MRG [82] March 14–19, 2012600±4.4%45%40%—15%
Public Policy Polling [38] May 24–27, 2012500±4.4%53%37%—10%
EPIC-MRA [83] June 2–5, 2012600±4.0%49%38%—13%
Rasmussen Reports [84] June 14, 2012500±4.5%48%39%3%10%
NBC News/Marist [85] June 24–25, 20121,078±3.0%49%37%—14%
Public Policy Polling [39] July 21–23, 2012579±4.1%52%38%—10%
Rasmussen Reports [86] July 23, 2012500±4.5%46%40%4%10%
EPIC-MRA [87] July 24–31, 2012600±4.0%49%35%—16%
Bouydon-Foster [88] July 28, 20121,046±3.03%53%43%5%3%
Bouydon-Foster [89] August 16, 20121,733±2.3%46%48%3%5%
Detroit News [90] August 18–20, 2012600±4.0%48%40%—12%
Mitchell Research [91] August 23, 20121,277±2.7%44%45%—11%
EPIC-MRA [92] August 28, 20121,200±2.6%51%44%—5%
Public Policy Polling [93] August 31 – September 2, 2012815±3.4%50%41%—9%
EPIC-MRA [94] September 8–11, 2012600±4%49%38%—13%
Baydoun-Foster [95] September 12, 20121,156±2.88%47%42%3%8%
Marketing Resource Group [96] September 10–15, 2012600±4%46%40%—14%
Detroit News [97] September 15–17, 2012600±4%50%34%—16%
Rasmussen Reports [98] September 20, 2012500±4.5%53%37%3%7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion [99] September 21–22, 2012804±3.3%54%40%7%—
Baydoun-Foster [95] October 5, 20121,122±2.93%51%43%2%4%
Gravis Marketing [100] October 5–6, 2012970±3.2%48%39%7%6%
EPIC-MRA [101] October 4–6, 2012600±4%55%35%—10%
Glengariff [102] October 6–8, 2012600±4%50%38%—10%
Rasmussen Reports [103] October 11, 2012500±4.5%51%39%3%7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion [99] October 18–20, 2012551±4.2%59%39%3%—
EPIC-MRA [104] October 26–29, 2012600±4%54%33%4%9%
Glengariff [105] October 27–29, 2012600±4%52%38%—10%
Public Policy Polling [106] October 31 – November 1, 2012500±4.4%53%40%—7%
Baydoun-Foster [107] November 2, 20121,913±2.2%50%43%3%3%
Public Policy Polling [108] November 1–3, 2012700±3.7%55%42%—3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion [109] November 1–3, 2012502±4.4%56%43%1%—
Mitchell Research [110] November 4, 20121,305±2.71%55%41%—4%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Clark
Durant (R)		OtherUndecided
EPIC-MRA [78] November 13–16, 2011600±4.0%51%31%—18%
Public Policy Polling [80] February 10–12, 2012560±4.14%50%33%—16%
Public Policy Polling [38] May 24–27, 2012500±4.4%53%31%—16%
Public Policy Polling [39] July 21–23, 2012579±4.1%51%34%—15%
Public Policy Polling [39] July 21–23, 2012579±4.1%51%34%—15%
Rasmussen Reports [103] July 23, 2012500±4.5%47%39%4%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Scotty
Boman (L)		OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [100] October 5–6, 2012970±3.2%49%39%—22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Randy
Hekman (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [75] March 18–20, 2011502±4.4%52%33%—15%
Public Policy Polling [76] July 21–24, 2011593±4.0%52%36%—12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Peter
Konetchy (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [76] July 21–24, 2011593±4.0%52%31%—18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Tim
Leuliette (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [73] December 3–6, 20101,224±2.8%47%30%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Saul
Anuzis (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [75] March 18–20, 2011502±4.4%52%35%—13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		John
Engler (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [73] December 3–6, 20101,224±2.8%49%42%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Terri Lynn
Land (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [73] December 3–6, 20101,224±2.8%45%41%—14%
Public Policy Polling [75] March 18–20, 2011502±4.4%48%38%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		John
McCulloch (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [76] July 21–24, 2011593±4.0%52%32%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Debbie
Stabenow (D)		Candice
Miller (R)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [73] December 3–6, 20101,224±2.8%43%41%—15%

Results

United States Senate election in Michigan, 2012 [111]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Debbie Stabenow (incumbent) 2,735,826 58.80% +1.89%
Republican Pete Hoekstra 1,767,38637.98%−3.28%
Libertarian Scott Boman 84,4801.82%+1.11%
Green Harley Mikkelson27,8900.60%−0.03%
Constitution Richard Matkin26,0380.56%+0.07%
Natural Law John Litle11,2290.24%N/A
Write-in 690.00%N/A
Total votes4,652,918 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Stabenow won 12 of 14 congressional districts, including seven that elected Republicans. [112]

DistrictStabenowHoekstraRepresentative
1st 52.3%44.4% Dan Benishek
2nd 44.7%52.2%
Bill Huizenga
3rd 48.0%48.6% Justin Amash
4th 53.0%43.6% Dave Camp
5th 66.7%30.2% Dale Kildee (112th Congress)
Dan Kildee (113th Congress)
6th 50.2%46.2% Fred Upton
7th 53.4%43.1% Tim Walberg
8th 52.4%44.2% Mike Rogers
9th 63.0%33.5% Gary Peters (112th Congress)
Sander Levin (113th Congress)
10th 54.0%42.8% Candice Miller
11th 51.5%45.3% David Curson (112th Congress)
Kerry Bentivolio (113th Congress)
12th 69.7%26.7% Sander Levin (112th Congress)
John Dingell (113th Congress)
13th 86.3%11.1% Hansen Clarke (112th Congress)
John Conyers (113th Congress)
14th 82.1%15.9% John Conyers (112th Congress)
Gary Peters (113th Congress)

See also

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References

  1. ↑ Johnson, Ruth (August 7, 2012). "August 7, 2012 Primary and November 6, 2012 General Election: Important Dates and Filing Deadlines" (PDF). MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
  2. 1 2 Johnson, Ruth (July 31, 2012). "2012 Official Michigan Primary Candidate Listing". MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
  3. ↑ Miller, Rina (August 3, 2012). "Glenn announces bid for U.S. Senate". Michigan Public Media.
  4. 1 2 Bell, Dawson (July 20, 2012). "Gary Glenn suspends campaign, backs Clark Durant". Detroit Free Press . Archived from the original on July 20, 2012. Retrieved August 3, 2012.
  5. ↑ "Topic Galleries". Chicago Tribune.
  6. ↑ Steinhauser, Paul (July 20, 2011). "Did the GOP get the candidate it wanted in Michigan?". CNN. Archived from the original on October 23, 2012. Retrieved January 9, 2013.
  7. ↑ "Boman joins Republican Michigan US Senate race". Houston Chronicle. Associated Press. September 9, 2011. Archived from the original on September 25, 2011. Retrieved September 25, 2011.
  8. 1 2 Schultz, Marisa; Chad Livengood (May 24, 2012). "Political insider: Engler feted at CMU renaming (Party-switcher Boman returns to Libertarian party)". The Detroit News. Archived from the original on June 9, 2012.
  9. ↑ Dodson, Andrew (August 4, 2011). "Western Thumb Tea Party group meets tonight in Vassar". MLive.com. Retrieved February 7, 2012.
  10. ↑ Livengood, Chad (June 5, 2012). "U.S. Senate candidate Konetchy fails to get enough petition signatures". The Detroit News.[ permanent dead link ]
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  26. ↑ Hoekstra, Pete (February 5, 2012). "Pete Hoekstra racially insensitive Super Bowl ad". HOEKSTRA FOR SENATE.
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