2012 United States Senate election in Indiana

Last updated

2012 United States Senate election in Indiana
Flag of Indiana.svg
  2006 November 6, 2012 2018  
Turnout58.5% [1]
  Congressman joedonnelly (cropped).jpg StateTreasurerRichardMourdock.jpg Andy Horning.png
Nominee Joe Donnelly Richard Mourdock Andy Horning
Party Democratic Republican Libertarian
Popular vote1,281,1811,133,621145,282
Percentage50.04%44.28%5.68%

2012 United States Senate election in Indiana results map by county.svg
2012 United States Senate election in Indiana by Congressional District.svg
Donnelly:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
Mourdock:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

Richard Lugar
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Joe Donnelly
Democratic

The 2012 United States Senate election in Indiana took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Richard Lugar ran for reelection to a seventh term, but was defeated in the primary by Tea Party-backed Richard Mourdock.

Contents

U.S. Representative Joe Donnelly, a Democrat from Indiana's 2nd congressional district, was unopposed in his party's primary, and then defeated both Mourdock and Libertarian Andrew Horning in the general election.

As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won any statewide election in Indiana, and the most recent Senate election in which an elected incumbent was defeated in the primary. [a] [2] This election was the last time a party would flip a Senate seat in a presidential election year without carrying the state in the concurrent presidential election until Arizona in 2024. [b] This is also the last time that a party flipped a Senate seat in a state that flipped against them in the simultaneous presidential election until Arizona in 2024.

Background and overview

On November 7, 2006, incumbent Richard Lugar was unopposed by any major party candidate as no Democrat filed for the May 2006 primary. He was re-elected to his sixth six-year term with 87.3% of the vote. [3] After the 2012 election, Lugar would have had an even chance, according to Senate Republican Conference rules, to be elected as its president pro tempore. [4] However, the issue was rendered moot with Lugar's primary loss on May 9, 2012, as Indiana state law prohibits candidates from running for an election after losing a primary. Time featured the race in their "Fury of the Senate" article. The article mentioned how Donnelly was lucky that Mourdock won out in the primary against Lugar, a well-liked centrist member of the GOP. Another boost came when Mourdock's remarks regarding rape helped propel Donnelly to victory. [5]

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 8, 2012.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Campaign

Due to Lugar's unpopularity among some Tea Party voters because of his positions regarding illegal immigration, voting to confirm then-U.S. Supreme Court nominees Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan, the DREAM Act, the New START Treaty, some gun control bills, and congressional earmarks, he was challenged by a Tea Party-backed candidate. [11] [12]

The Indiana Debate Commission's GOP primary debate with Sen. Richard Lugar and State Treasurer Richard Mourdock was set to air at 7 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, April 11. [13] In a widely published poll taken March 26 to 28, Lugar was still in the lead, but by the time of a second published poll from April 30 to May 1, Mourdock was leading 48% to 38%. [14]

Mourdock defeated Senator Lugar in the Republican primary on May 8, 2012. [15] [16]

According to Indiana law, Lugar's defeat meant that he would not be permitted to run in the election either as a third party or an independent candidate after he lost the primary. [17]

Endorsements

Richard Lugar

Individuals

Organizations

Richard Mourdock

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Mourdock
Richard
Lugar
Undecided
Basswood Research (R) [47] July 23–24, 2011500±4.4%34%32%34%
American Viewpoint (R) [48] July 27–28, 2011600±4.0%31%45%23%
Howey Politics/DePauw University [49] March 26–28, 2012503±4.5%35%42%28%
Howey Politics/DePauw University [50] April 30 – May 1, 2012700±3.7%48%38%14%

Results

Results by county:
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Murdock--70-80%
Murdock--60-70%
Murdock--50-60%
Lugar--50-60% Indiana U.S. Senate Republican primary, 2012.svg
Results by county:
  Murdock—70–80%
  Murdock—60–70%
  Murdock—50–60%
  Lugar—50–60%
Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Richard Mourdock 400,321 60.5%
Republican Richard Lugar (incumbent)261,28539.5%
Total votes661,606 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Donnelly was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Democratic primary results [54]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Joe Donnelly 207,715 100.00%
Total votes207,715 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Confirmed debates with Donnelly, Horning and Mourdock are: [56]

Date: Monday, October 15
Broadcast time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: Indianapolis
Venue: WFYI-TV (in studio/no live audience)

Date: Tuesday, October 23
Broadcast time: 7 p.m. EDT
City: New Albany
Venue: Paul W. Ogle Cultural & Community Center, Indiana University Southeast (live audience – seating up to 500)

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Joe Donnelly (D)$5,572,319$5,496,760$95,578$0
Richard Mourdock (R)$8,982,053$8,698,721$283,332$0
Andy Horning (L)$4,907$2,905$2,005$0
Source: Federal Election Commission [57]

Top contributors

Joe DonnellyContributionRichard MourdockContribution
Faegre Baker Daniels $30,942 Club for Growth $290,815
MacAndrews & Forbes $29,500 Senate Conservatives Fund $58,728
Renco Group $27,400 Koch Industries $30,000
Barnes & Thornburg $22,601Murray Energy$15,000
University of Notre Dame $20,150 Lucas Oil $11,400
MWH Global WPP plc $17,000 ESOP Association $10,750
Eli Lilly and Company $16,912 Blue Cross Blue Shield Association $10,250
Power, Rogers & Smith$16,000 American Bankers Association $10,000
Mid Manhattan PAC$13,750 ExxonMobil $10,000
Patton Boggs LLP$13,083 Citizens United $10,000
Source: OpenSecrets [58]

Top industries

Joe DonnellyContributionRichard MourdockContribution
Lawyers/law firms $463,098 Republican/Conservative PACs $474,661
Leadership PACs $298,000Leadership PACs$305,607
Retired$192,716Retired$244,206
Lobbyists $109,987 Oil & gas $132,530
Building trade unions$77,000 Financial institutions $90,200
Financial institutions$100,235 Commercial banks $88,430
Education$91,563 Health professionals $86,567
Building trade unions$63,500Misc. finance$64,815
Public sector unions $87,000 Manufacturing industry $60,200
Political action committees $63,798Real estate$58,290
Source: OpenSecrets [59]

Campaign

Pregnancy from rape controversy

Mourdock became embroiled in a controversy after stating that pregnancy from rape is "something that God intended". His remarks were made during a debate on October 23, 2012, while explaining his opposition to abortion even in the case of rape. At the debate Mourdock, when asked what his position on abortion was, responded:

I know there are some who disagree and I respect their point of view but I believe that life begins at conception. The only exception I have to have an abortion is in that case of the life of the mother. I just struggled with it myself for a long time but I came to realize: "Life is that gift from God that I think even if life begins in that horrible situation of rape, that it is something that God intended to happen". [60]

Media speculated that this could affect the outcome of the Senate race and Presidential race [61] and multiple sources noted the similarities with the rape and pregnancy statement controversies in the 2012 United States elections. [62] [63]

Responding to the criticism, Mourdock issued a statement saying: "God creates life, and that was my point. God does not want rape, and by no means was I suggesting that he does. Rape is a horrible thing, and for anyone to twist my words otherwise is absurd and sick." [64] He was later quoted at a press conference also saying: "I believe God controls the universe. I don't believe biology works in an uncontrolled fashion." [65] He however refused to issue an apology, even while prominent Republicans, including Sen. John McCain, called for him to do so. [66]

Response

A day before the controversy started, a television ad began airing that showed Governor Mitt Romney, the Republican nominee for United States President, supporting Mourdock. [67] The Romney campaign subsequently issued a statement saying "Gov. Romney disagrees with Richard Mourdock's comments, and they do not reflect his views," but did not pull the ad. Senator John Cornyn, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said "Richard and I, along with millions of Americans—including even Joe Donnelly—believe that life is a gift from God. To try and construe his words as anything other than a restatement of that belief is irresponsible and ridiculous". [68] [69]

Many public Republicans called for Mourdock to apologize for the statement. Sen. John McCain called for him to issue an apology and his support "depends on what he does." [66] Senator Scott Brown refused to state that he supported Mourdock in the election. [70] Rep. Mike Pence, a Republican running for governor of Indiana concurrent to Mourdock's senatorial campaign, urged Mourdock to apologize. "I strongly disagree with the statement made by Richard Mourdock during last night's Senate debate," he said in a statement. "I urge him to apologize." [71]

President Obama stated, "Rape is rape. It is a crime," on the Tonight Show . He continued, "These various distinctions about rape don't make too much sense to me." [72] Dan Parker, chairman of the Indiana Democratic Party, immediately criticized Mourdock, saying: "I'm stunned and ashamed that Richard Mourdock believes God intended rape", and claimed that he is an "extremist" who is out of touch with Indiana. [60]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [73] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [74] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [75] Tilt D (flip)November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [76] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Mourdock (R)
Joe
Donnelly (D)
Andrew
Horning (L)
OtherUndecided
Howey Politics/DePauw University [77] March 26–28, 2012503± 4.4%35%35%7%23%
Rasmussen Reports [78] May 23–24, 2012600± 4.0%42%42%2%14%
Rasmussen Reports [79] July 31 – August 1, 2012400± 5.0%42%40%3%15%
Market Research Insight [80] August 6–9, 2012600± 4.0%41%39%3%17%
Howey Politics/DePauw University [81] September 19–23, 2012800± 3.5%38%40%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports [82] October 10–11, 2012600± 4.0%47%42%2%8%
Pharos Research [83] October 19–21, 2012754± 3.6%46%46%8%
Howey Politics/DePauw University [84] October 28–30, 2012800± 3.5%36%47%6%11%
Rasmussen Reports [82] November 1, 2012600± 4.0%42%45%6%6%
Hypothetical polling

with Richard Lugar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Lugar (R)
Joe
Donnelly (D)
OtherUndecided
Howey Politics/DePauw University [77] March 26–28, 2012503± 4.4%50%29%21%

Results

State Senate district results 2012 US senate election in Indiana by state senate district.svg
State Senate district results

On election night, Donnelly won by about six percent. Donnelly performed well in Marion County, home of Indianapolis. Donnelly also won areas with major college campuses, such as Indiana University in Bloomington and Purdue University in Lafayette. Mourdock performed well as expected in the Indianapolis suburbs, such as Hamilton County. Mourdock conceded defeat to Donnelly at around 11:30 p.m. EST.

United States Senate election in Indiana, 2012 [85]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Joe Donnelly 1,281,181 50.04% N/A
Republican Richard Mourdock 1,133,62144.28%−43.08%
Libertarian Andy Horning145,2825.68%−6.91%
Write-in 180.00%-0.06%
Total votes2,560,102 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Donnelly won five of nine congressional districts, including three held by Republicans. [86]

DistrictDonnellyMourdockRepresentative
1st 66.31%30.99% Pete Visclosky
2nd 49.94%45.42%Joe Donnelly (112th Congress)
Jackie Walorski (113th Congress)
3rd 40.47%53.96% Marlin Stutzman
4th 43.56%49.03% Todd Rokita
5th 47.36%46.18% Dan Burton (112th Congress)
Susan Brooks (113th Congress)
6th 43.68%48.93% Mike Pence (112th Congress)
Luke Messer (113th Congress)
7th 66.03%28.00% André Carson
8th 47.74%46.84% Larry Bucshon
9th 46.81%47.20% Todd Young

See also

Notes

  1. U.S. Senator Luther Strange lost a primary election to Roy Moore in 2017 after being appointed by the governor to fill an empty seat.
  2. Independents would flip the Maine Senate seat, though the independent would caucus with the Democrats, who won the state in presidential elections.

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