2024 United States Senate election in Utah

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Utah
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  CurtisHeadShotOfficial (cropped).jpg Caroline Gleich talks to sailors aboard George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) (3x4 crop).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee John Curtis Caroline Gleich Carlton Bowen
Party Republican Democratic Independent American
Popular vote914,699464,51582,820
Percentage62.50%31.70%5.73%
2024 United States Senate election in Utah results map by county.svg
County results
Curtis:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Gleich:     40–50%     50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Mitt Romney
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

John Curtis
Republican

The 2024 United States Senate election in Utah was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Utah. Republican congressman John Curtis won his first term in office, succeeding Republican incumbent Mitt Romney, who did not seek a second term. [1] [2]

Contents

Despite finishing a distant second behind Riverton mayor Trent Staggs at the Utah Republican convention, Curtis won the Republican primary with 49% of the vote over Staggs and former state House speaker Brad Wilson. Democratic environmentalist Caroline Gleich won her party's nomination after receiving 93% of vote at the Utah Democratic convention. Democrats have not won a Senate election in Utah since 1970.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Eliminated at convention

  • Jeremy Friedbaum, piano technician and perennial candidate [5]
  • Brent Hatch, attorney, treasurer of the Federalist Society, and son of former U.S. Senator Orrin Hatch [7]
  • Brian Jenkins, window cleaning contractor and perennial candidate [5]
  • Carolyn Phippen, former advisor to U.S. Senator Mike Lee [8]
  • Josh Randall, accountant and audit manager [9]
  • Chandler Tanner, attorney [5]
  • Clark White, supply chain manager [5]

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Trent Staggs
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
Party leaders
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Brad Wilson
Statewide officials
State legislators
Mitt Romney (declined to run)
U.S. Senators
Organizations
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 5, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
John Curtis (R)$3,796,591$3,607,565$575,864
Trent Staggs (R)$1,247,183 [a] $871,934$375,248
Jason Walton (R)$2,882,658 [b] $2,620,544$262,114
Brad Wilson (R)$5,019,090 [c] $4,465,090$554,000
Source: Federal Election Commission [49]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		John
Curtis		Trent
Staggs		Jason
Walton		Brad
Wilson		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights June 20–21, 2024432 (LV)± 4.7%48%28%6%9%7% [d] 2%
HarrisX [A] June 4–7, 2024469 (RV)± 4.5%34%16%4%12%–33%
47%21%8%24%––
Guidant Polling and Strategy [B] April 30 – May 3, 2024600 (LV)± 4.0%41%15%2%9%–33%
Noble Predictive Insights April 8–16, 2024283 (RV)± 5.8%27%5%2%10%15% [e] 41%
Dan Jones & Associates January 16–21, 2024428 (RV)± 4.74%18%3%1%8%18% [f] 52%
Guidant Polling and Strategy [B] November 28–
December 5, 2023		600 (RV)± 4.0%40%6%–11%–43%
44%–––12%44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Deidre
Henderson		Mike
Kennedy		Sean
Reyes		Mitt
Romney		Trent
Staggs		Brad
Wilson		OtherUndecided
Dan Jones & Associates August 7–14, 2023803 (RV)± 3.5%–––44%3%6%32% [g] 14%
Noble Predictive Insights July 7–18, 2023301 (RV)± 5.7%3%5%13%30%3%5%–39%
8%7%16%–4%7%–55%

Convention results

State Republican convention results, 2024
Candidate Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Votes  % Votes  % Votes  % Votes  %
Trent Staggs 134242.64%157151.68%168657.68%189269.74%
John Curtis 683 21.70% 683 22.47% 721 24.67% 821 30.26%
Carolyn Phippen411 13.06% 356 11.71% 273 9.34% Eliminated
Brad Wilson 242 7.69% 162 5.56% 142 4.86% Eliminated
Jason Walton 224 7.12% 139 4.57% 101 3.46% Eliminated
Chandler Tanner 82 2.61% 69 2.27% Eliminated
Brent Hatch 107 3.40% 53 1.74% Eliminated
Josh Randall 47 1.49% Eliminated
Brian Jenkins 5 0.16% Eliminated
Jeremy Friedbaum 4 0.13% Eliminated
Inactive Ballots 0 ballots 0 ballots 5 ballots 21 ballots

Debate

2024 United States Senate election in Utah republican primary debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Republican Republican Republican
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CurtisStaggsWaltonWilson
1Jun. 10, 2024Utah Debate CommissionGlen Mills YouTube PPPP

Results

Results by county: Curtis 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Staggs 40-50% 2024 Utah Senate GOP Primary Results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Curtis
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Staggs
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Curtis 206,094 48.72%
Republican Trent Staggs 138,14332.66%
Republican Brad Wilson 53,13412.56%
Republican Jason Walton25,6046.05%
Total votes422,975 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

  • Laird Hamblin, biologist and Republican candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 [51]
  • Archie Williams, heavy equipment operator and perennial candidate [51]

Endorsements

Caroline Gleich
Individuals
Political parties

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 7, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Caroline Gleich (D)$389,534$303,924$85,610
Source: Federal Election Commission [49]

Results

Convention

State Democratic Convention results, 2024
CandidateFirst ballotPct.
Caroline Gleich 79592.5%
Laird Hamblin485.6%
Archie Williams161.9%
Total859100.0%

Independent American convention

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated at convention

  • Robert Newcomb, engineer [5]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of April 7, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Carlton Bowen (IA)$8,568$6,017$2,551
Source: Federal Election Commission [49]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [54] Solid RNovember 9, 2023
Inside Elections [55] Solid RNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [56] Safe RNovember 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [57] Safe RJune 8, 2024
Elections Daily [58] Safe RMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [59] Solid RNovember 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics [60] Solid RAugust 5, 2024
Split Ticket [61] Safe ROctober 23, 2024
538 [62] Solid ROctober 23, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

Caroline Gleich (D)
Organizations
John Curtis (R)
U.S. Senators
Organizations

Debates

2024 Utah U.S. Senate election debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic Ind. American
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
CurtisGleichBowen
1Oct. 10, 2024Utah Debate CommissionGlen Mills YouTube PPP

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
John Curtis (R)$4,497,486$4,058,071$826,255
Caroline Gleich (D)$756,449$664,929$91,520
Carlton Bowen (IA)$16,084$15,200$884
Source: Federal Election Commission [49]

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		John
Curtis (R)		Caroline
Gleich (D)		Undecided
[h] 		Margin
TheHill/DDHQ through October 7, 2024October 30, 202451.2%26.6%22.2%Curtis +24.6
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [i] 		Margin
of error		John
Curtis (R)		Caroline
Gleich (D)		Carlton
Bowen (I)		OtherUndecided
Noble Predictive Insights October 25-28, 2024695 (LV)± 3.7%54%26%7%6% [j] 7%
HarrisX [A] October 15–19, 2024813 (RV)± 3.4%55%20%2%–21%
65%24%11%––
Noble Predictive Insights October 2–7, 2024539 (LV)± 4.22%53%24%––24%
51%21%2%1%25%
800 (RV)± 4.0%50%23%––26%
47%21%3%1%15%
Lighthouse Research [C] August 29 – September 19, 2024526 (RV)± 4.3%53%34%8%–5%
HarrisX [A] August 2–9, 2024800 (RV)± 3.5%56%22%8%–14%
71%29%–––

Results

2024 United States Senate election in Utah [66]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican John Curtis 755,189 62.3%
Democratic Caroline Gleich 391,44332.3%
Independent AmericanCarlton Bowen64,8905.4%
Total votes1,211,522 100.0%
Republican hold

Notes

  1. ↑ $90,000 of this total was self-funded by Staggs
  2. ↑ $2,500,000 of this total was self-funded by Walton
  3. ↑ $3,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Wilson
  4. ↑ "Did not vote" with 7%
  5. ↑ Brent Hatch with 11%; Carolyn Phippen with 1%; "Someone else" with 3%
  6. ↑ Brent Hatch with 14%; Josh Randall with 2%; Brian Jenkins and Carolyn Phippen with 1%; Jeremy Friedbaum, Chandler Tanner and Clark White with 0%
  7. ↑ "Another candidate" with 32%
  8. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  9. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  10. ↑ "Refused" with 4%; "Write-in" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll sponsored by the Deseret News and the University of Utah
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Conservative Values for Utah, which supports Curtis
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Utah Debate Commission

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References

  1. 1 2 Balz, Dan (September 13, 2023). "Mitt Romney says he will not seek a second term in the Senate". The Washington Post . Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  2. ↑ "Romney Won't Run for Reelection, Opening GOP Primary Fight". Cook Political. September 13, 2023.
  3. ↑ Aerts, Lindsay (January 2, 2024). "Rep. John Curtis officially running for Romney's senate seat". KSL Newsradio. Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  4. ↑ Bates, Suzanne (May 23, 2023). "Riverton Mayor Trent Staggs announces run for Mitt Romney's Senate seat". Deseret News.
  5. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 "2024 Candidate Filings – Utah Voter Information". vote.utah.gov. Retrieved January 6, 2024.
  6. ↑ Irwin, Lauren (September 27, 2023). "Utah House speaker joins race to replace Romney". The Hill . Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  7. ↑ Bates, Suzanne (January 2, 2024). "Brent Hatch, Orrin's son, joins Senate race to replace Mitt Romney". Deseret News . Retrieved January 2, 2024.
  8. ↑ "Ballots & Boundaries". Bloomberg Government . September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  9. ↑ Anderson Stern, Emily (October 20, 2023). "These Utahns are running for Mitt Romney's seat in the U.S. Senate". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved October 30, 2023.
  10. ↑ Tomco, Brigham (January 3, 2024). "Roosevelt mayor opts for House bid, says background in energy sector makes him 'a good fit'". Deseret News . Retrieved January 4, 2024. Roosevelt Mayor Rod Bird Jr. ended his U.S. Senate campaign Wednesday, filing instead to run for Utah's 3rd Congressional District.
  11. ↑ Woodruff, Daniel (September 14, 2023). "Utah governor not considering run for U.S. Senate". KUTV . Retrieved September 15, 2023.
  12. ↑ Winslow, Ben (September 13, 2023). "As Romney exits, Republicans line up to replace him". Fox 13 . Retrieved September 14, 2023. Former House Speaker Greg Hughes, who recently lost a bid for GOP nomination for the 2nd Congressional District, said he was not interested in running for the seat.
  13. ↑ Pignanelli, Frank; Webb, LaVarr (September 13, 2023). "Opinion: Who will replace Mitt Romney?". Deseret News . Retrieved September 13, 2023.
  14. ↑ Bojórquez, Kim (January 5, 2024). "Former Utah GOP chair Carson Jorgensen jumps into governor's race". Axios . Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  15. ↑ Tomco, Brigham (September 18, 2023). "The latest on who might run for Romney's Senate seat: Robert O'Brien announces his decision". Deseret News . Retrieved September 18, 2023.
  16. 1 2 3 Everett, Burgess; Adragna, Anthony (August 10, 2023). "A group of 60 members of the Utah Legislature are pushing Brad Wilson to run for the U.S. Senate seat held by Mitt Romney". Politico . Retrieved August 10, 2023.
  17. ↑ Schott, Bryan (September 28, 2023). "Josh Romney won't run to replace his father in the Senate next year". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  18. ↑ Bates, Suzanne (April 13, 2023). "Utah House Speaker Brad Wilson forms committee to explore run for Romney's Senate seat". Deseret News. Retrieved April 14, 2023. Sources say Rep. Chris Stewart, who represents Utah's 2nd Congressional District, and Rep. John Curtis, who represents Utah's 3rd Congressional District, have thought about running
  19. ↑ Schott, Bryan (May 30, 2023). "Breaking: Rep. Chris Stewart plans to resign from Congress". The Salt Lake Tribune.
  20. ↑ Pitts, Emma (June 13, 2024). "Congressman Blake Moore endorses John Curtis for U.S. Senate seat". Deseret News . Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  21. ↑ Beal-Cvetko, Bridger (April 11, 2024). "Former Rep. Chris Stewart endorses John Curtis in US Senate race". KSL.com . Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  22. ↑ Cama, Timothy (January 3, 2024). "GOP climate champion John Curtis launches Utah Senate bid". E&E News. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  23. ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 13, 2024.
  24. ↑ "BIPAC Action Fund Releases Second Round of 2024 Endorsements". bipacaction.com. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  25. ↑ "Clear Path Action Fund". Clear Path Action Fund. Retrieved February 11, 2024.
  26. ↑ Jackson, Herb (January 3, 2024). "Curtis enters GOP race to fill Romney seat in Utah". Roll Call. Retrieved January 3, 2024.
  27. ↑ "'Commonsense' GOP group jumps into open primaries". Punchbowl News. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  28. ↑ "2024 Endorsements". Forward Party. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
  29. ↑ Moran, Sean (September 15, 2023). "Ric Grenell Endorses Trent Staggs for Utah Senate". NewsFinale.
  30. 1 2 3 Mondeaux, Cami (August 4, 2023). "Romney Challenger Garners Slew of Endorsements from Utah Lawmakers". The Washington Examiner . Retrieved August 5, 2023.
  31. ↑ Ogbonna, Gloria (October 2, 2023). "Exclusive: Former Pentagon Chief of Staff Kash Patel Backs America First Candidate Trent Staggs for U.S. Senate". yourNEWS. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
  32. ↑ Beal-Cvetko, Bridger (April 27, 2024). "State Republican convention: Donald Trump endorses Trent Staggs in Senate race". KSL-TV . Retrieved April 27, 2024.
  33. ↑ Morris, Kyle (May 23, 2024). "Rand Paul endorses GOP Utah Senate candidate to replace Romney, says he's the 'type of Republican' needed". Fox News . Retrieved May 23, 2024.
  34. ↑ Christ, Lacy (January 13, 2024). "Utah mayor secures first Senate endorsement in bid for Romney's seat". Fox News . Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  35. ↑ Schott, Bryan (September 16, 2023). "Conservative star Kari Lake to headline fundraising event for U.S. Senate hopeful Trent Staggs". The Salt Lake Tribune . Retrieved September 19, 2023.
  36. ↑ Tomco, Brigham (April 17, 2024). "Vivek Ramaswamy endorses Trent Staggs for U.S. Senate". Deseret News. Retrieved April 18, 2024.
  37. ↑ Tomco, Brigham (May 7, 2024). "Jazz legend John Stockton endorses Trent Staggs for U.S. Senate in Utah". Deseret News . Retrieved May 7, 2024.
  38. ↑ Tomco, Brigham (April 27, 2024). "Trent Staggs sweeps Utah GOP convention after Trump endorsement to replace Sen. Mitt Romney". Deseret News . Retrieved April 27, 2024.
  39. ↑ CUPVF (May 30, 2024). "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Trent Staggs for U.S. Senate from Utah". Citizens United Political Victory Fund. Retrieved June 13, 2024.
  40. ↑ "Senate Conservatives Fund". www.senateconservatives.com. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  41. ↑ Cooper, Reed (July 19, 2023). "Mitt Romney Challenger Trent Staggs Secures Major Endorsement from TPAction: 'We Will Retire Romney'". D.C. Enquirer. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  42. ↑ "Republicans for National Renewal Endorses Trent Staggs for U.S. Senate". January 17, 2024. Retrieved January 18, 2024.
  43. ↑ Schnee, Brian (June 5, 2023). "Utah police union backs Trent Staggs' Senate push". KUTV 2. Retrieved June 5, 2023.
  44. ↑ "Utah Gov. Spencer Cox backs Brad Wilson in race for Romney's Senate seat". www.abc4.com. October 19, 2023. Retrieved October 21, 2023.
  45. 1 2 Everett, Burgess (December 21, 2022). "See Romney run? Trump's top GOP foil eyes Senate reelection". Politico .
  46. ↑ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
  47. ↑ Woodruff, Daniel (January 3, 2024). "As Senate race solidifies, Romney plans on 'staying out' of it". KJZZ-TV . Retrieved January 7, 2024.
  48. ↑ Coombs, Carlene; Booker, Curtis (April 6, 2024). "Mike Lee attends town halls throughout Utah County with Senate candidates". Standard-Examiner . Retrieved September 3, 2024.
  49. 1 2 3 4 "2024 Election United States Senate - Utah". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved August 4, 2024.
  50. ↑ "2024 Primary Election Republican for US Senate" . Retrieved July 6, 2024.
  51. 1 2 3 Lewis, Scott (April 27, 2024). "Utah Democrats nominate Caroline Gleich for Senate, Katrina Fallick-Wang for House". KTVX . Retrieved April 27, 2024.
  52. ↑ Anderson Stern, Emily. "World-renowned ski mountaineer, environmental activist running for Utah's open Senate seat". The Salt Lake Tribune. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
  53. ↑ "Utah Democrats endorse Brian King for governor, Caroline Gleich for Senate at state convention". Deseret News. April 28, 2024. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  54. ↑ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  55. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  56. ↑ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  57. ↑ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
  58. ↑ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  59. ↑ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
  60. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved August 5, 2024.
  61. ↑ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  62. ↑ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
  63. ↑ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Caroline Gleich for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. June 27, 2024.
  64. ↑ Mutnick, Ally (October 15, 2024). "John Thune doles out the money as he runs for Senate GOP leader". Politico . Retrieved October 17, 2024.
  65. ↑ Siegel, Josh. "I am your least worst alternative': Why one Utah conservative is drawing in climate backers". Politico. Retrieved September 25, 2024.
  66. ↑ "Utah U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times . November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
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