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County results Rosen: 50–60% Brown: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% | |||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Nevada |
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Nevadaportal |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Nevada was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen narrowly won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Sam Brown. [1] Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump carried Nevada on the same ballot. Primary elections took place on June 11, 2024. [2]
A typical swing state, Nevada is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Nevada by about two percentage points. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, majorities in both state legislative chambers, and all but one seat in its congressional delegation, while Republicans flipped the governorship and lieutenant governorship in 2022. [3] [4] [5]
As of 2024, no Republican has won any U.S. Senate race in Nevada since 2012. This race was considered to be highly competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean; however, most polls and ratings showed Rosen to be the favorite to win. [6]
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Campaign finance reports as of May 22, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Jacky Rosen (D) | $27,387,983 | $17,316,743 | $10,249,429 |
Troy Walker (D) | $705 | $675 | $0 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [43] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jacky Rosen (incumbent) | 144,090 | 91.51% | |
Democratic | Troy Zakari Walker | 5,899 | 3.75% | |
Democratic | None of These Candidates | 3,951 | 2.51% | |
Democratic | Mike Schaefer | 3,521 | 2.24% | |
Total votes | 157,461 | 100.0% |
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Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Sam Brown | Tony Grady | Jeff Gunter | Jim Marchant | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Noble Predictive Insights [69] | June 4–5, 2024 | 424 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 50% | 4% | 15% | 8% | 12% [b] | 12% |
Kaplan Strategies [70] [A] | May 30, 2024 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 30% | 4% | 31% | 7% | 1% [c] | 27% |
Tarrance Group [71] [B] | May 13–16, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | – | 14% | 7% | – | 27% |
Tarrance Group [72] [B] | April 7–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 58% | 3% | 3% | 6% | – | 29% |
Noble Predictive Insights [73] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 296 (RV) | ± 5.7% | 39% | – | – | 26% | – | 35% |
Tarrance Group [74] [B] | October 23–26, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 9% | – | 41% |
Public Opinion Strategies [75] [C] | August 15–17, 2023 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.38% | 33% | 2% | 1% | 15% | 3% [d] | 44% |
Campaign finance reports as of May 22, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Sam Brown (R) | $7,084,690 | $4,605,289 | $2,479,400 |
William Conrad (R) | $12,476 [e] | $7,098 | $9,161 |
Tony Grady Jr. (R) | $278,061 | $255,593 | $22,467 |
Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R) | $3,317,546 [f] | $2,980,286 | $337,260 |
Ronda Kennedy (R) | $27,786 [g] | $18,620 | $9,165 |
Barry Lindemann (R) | $64,106 | $63,947 | $2,783 |
Jim Marchant (R) | $434,323 | $374,665 | $59,657 |
Stephanie Phillips (R) | $82,761 | $81,427 | $1,333 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [43] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Sam Brown | 103,102 | 60.17% | |
Republican | Jeffrey Ross Gunter | 24,987 | 14.58% | |
Republican | Jim Marchant | 11,190 | 6.53% | |
Republican | Tony Grady Jr. | 9,565 | 5.58% | |
Republican | None of These Candidates | 7,164 | 4.18% | |
Republican | William Conrad | 6,038 | 3.52% | |
Republican | Stephanie Phillips | 3,828 | 2.23% | |
Republican | Garn Mabey | 1,818 | 1.06% | |
Republican | Ronda Kennedy | 1,786 | 1.04% | |
Republican | Barry Lindemann | 852 | 0.50% | |
Republican | Edward Hamilton | 478 | 0.28% | |
Republican | Vincent Rego | 311 | 0.18% | |
Republican | Gary Marinch | 231 | 0.13% | |
Total votes | 171,350 | 100.0% |
Campaign finance reports as of May 22, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Chris Cunningham (L) | $800 | $16 | $809 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [43] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [76] | Lean D | August 15, 2024 |
Inside Elections [77] | Lean D | October 18, 2024 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [78] | Lean D | November 9, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [79] | Lean D | October 3, 2024 |
Elections Daily [80] | Likely D | October 9, 2024 |
CNalysis [81] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
RealClearPolitics [82] | Tossup | October 18, 2024 |
Split Ticket [83] | Likely D | October 23, 2024 |
538 [84] | Likely D | October 23, 2024 |
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No. | Date | Host | Moderators | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | ||||||
Rosen | Brown | |||||
1 | October 17, 2024 | KLAS-TV | YouTube | P | P |
Campaign finance reports as of October 16, 2024 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Jacky Rosen (D) | $46,500,385 | $44,212,365 | $2,466,209 |
Sam Brown (R) | $20,000,962 | $17,751,273 | $2,249,688 |
Source: Federal Election Commission [43] |
Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Jacky Rosen (D) | Sam Brown (R) | Undecided [h] | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FiveThirtyEight [89] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 49.2% | 43.4% | 7.4% | Rosen +5.8% |
RealClearPolitics [90] | October 24 - November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.8% | 43.9% | 7.3% | Rosen +4.9% |
270toWin [91] | October 22 - November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 44.2% | 7.1% | Rosen +4.5% |
TheHill/DDHQ [92] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.6% | 44.7% | 6.7% | Rosen +3.9% |
Average | 48.8% | 44.1% | 7.1% | Rosen+4.7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Jacky Rosen (D) | Sam Brown (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AtlasIntel [93] | November 3–4, 2024 | 707 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 43% | 4% [i] | 5% |
Patriot Polling (R) [94] | November 1–3, 2024 | 792 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | – | – |
AtlasIntel [95] | November 1–2, 2024 | 782 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 5% [j] | 4% |
Emerson College [96] [D] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 44% | 3% [k] | 3% |
NYT/Siena College [97] | October 24 – November 2, 2024 | 1,010 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 52% | 43% | – | 5% |
1,010 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 40% | – | 8% | ||
Emerson College [98] [E] | October 29–31, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 49% | 45% | 2% [l] | 4% |
Noble Predictive Insights [99] | October 28–31, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | 5% [m] | 2% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) [100] | October 28–31, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | 5% [n] | 2% |
YouGov [101] [F] | October 25–31, 2024 | 753 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 51% | 44% | – | 5% |
AtlasIntel [102] | October 27–30, 2024 | 845 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 45% | 5% [j] | 3% |
Data for Progress (D) [103] | October 25–30, 2024 | 721 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | 4% [o] | 4% |
AtlasIntel [104] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 44% | 4% [p] | 3% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [105] | October 25–28, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 45% | 3% [q] | 6% |
CNN/SRSS [106] | October 21–26, 2024 | 683 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 41% | 8% [r] | 1% |
OnMessage Inc. (R) [107] [G] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 2% [s] | 3% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [108] | October 19–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | 4% [t] | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [109] [H] | October 16–18, 2024 | 529 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48% | 41% | 4% [u] | 6% |
AtlasIntel [110] | October 12–17, 2024 | 1,171 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 3% [v] | 6% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) [111] [I] | October 8–15, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | 4% [w] | 3% |
Morning Consult [112] | October 6–15, 2024 | 496 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 37% | – | 6% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [113] [H] | October 12–14, 2024 | 838 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 46% | 41% | 5% [x] | 7% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) [114] | October 10–13, 2024 | 1,088 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 43% | 3% [q] | 6% |
Emerson College [115] [J] | October 5–8, 2024 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 50% | 42% | 3% [y] | 5% |
RMG Research [116] [K] | September 30 – October 3, 2024 | 782 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 56% | 40% | 1% [z] | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [117] [H] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 514 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 41% | 5% [aa] | 7% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [118] | September 29–30, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 42% | 2% [ab] | 7% |
AtlasIntel [119] | September 20–25, 2024 | 858 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | 3% [ac] | 3% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [120] [L] | September 19–25, 2024 | 409 (LV) | – | 52% | 38% | 4% [ad] | 6% |
53% | 40% | – | 7% | ||||
Rasmussen Reports (R) [121] [M] | September 19–22, 2024 | 738 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 4% [ae] | 7% |
Remington Research Group (R) [122] [N] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 41% | – | 12% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [123] [H] | September 16–19, 2024 | 652 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 38% | 4% [af] | 11% |
The Tarrance Group (R) [124] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 48% | 41% | 4% [ag] | 6% |
Emerson College [125] [J] | September 15–18, 2024 | 895 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | 3% [y] | 9% |
Morning Consult [112] | September 9–18, 2024 | 474 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 52% | 39% | – | 9% |
Noble Predictive Insights [126] | September 9–16, 2024 | 692 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 38% | – | 9% |
50% | 36% | 6% [ah] | 7% | ||||
812 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 52% | 34% | – | 15% | ||
49% | 33% | 8% [ai] | 10% | ||||
The Trafalgar Group (R) [127] | September 11–13, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 40% | 7% [aj] | 4% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [128] [H] | September 6–9, 2024 | 698 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 39% | 5% [ak] | 9% |
Morning Consult [129] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 516 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 40% | – | 10% |
YouGov [130] [F] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 51% | 39% | – | 10% |
InsiderAdvantage (R) [131] | August 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 39% | 2% [ab] | 10% |
CNN/SRSS [132] | August 23–29, 2024 | 626 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50% | 40% | 9% [al] | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [133] [H] | August 25–28, 2024 | 490 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 43% | 39% | 4% [am] | 14% |
Emerson College [134] [J] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,168 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 40% | 4% [w] | 6% |
Fox News [135] | August 23–26, 2024 | 1,026 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 41% | 3% [an] | 1% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [133] [H] | August 12–15, 2024 | 536 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 41% | 37% | 5% [ao] | 19% |
NYT/Siena College [136] | August 12–15, 2024 | 677 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 48% | 37% | – | 15% |
677 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 40% | – | 11% | ||
Strategies 360 [137] | August 7–14, 2024 | 350 (RV) | ± 5.2% | 50% | 38% | 5% [ap] | 6% |
Providence Polling [138] | August 3–5, 2024 | 991 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 40% | 9% [aq] | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [139] [H] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 470 (LV) | ± 4.16% | 41% | 38% | 3% [ar] | 19% |
BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D) [140] [L] | July 26 – August 2, 2024 | 403 (LV) | – | 54% | 36% | – | 10% |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [141] [H] | July 22–24, 2024 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.14% | 45% | 40% | 3% [ar] | 10% |
Joe Biden withdraws from the presidential election | |||||||
Redfield & Wilton Strategies [142] [H] | July 16–18, 2024 | 412 (LV) | – | 41% | 37% | 4% [as] | 16% |
YouGov [143] [F] | July 4–12, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 40% | 1% | 11% |
731 (LV) | – | 47% | 41% | 1% | 10% | ||
Remington Research Group (R) [144] [N] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
National Public Affairs [145] | June 28 – July 1, 2024 | 817 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 33% | 8% | 18% |
Emerson College [146] [J] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | – | 13% |
Fabrizio Ward (R)/ Impact Research (D) [147] [I] | June 12–18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 42% | – | 11% |
Primary elections held | |||||||
The Tyson Group [148] [O] | May 22–25, 2024 | 601 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 33% | 4% [at] | 16% |
Mainstreet Research/FAU [149] | May 19–21, 2024 | 522 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 35% | 8% | 9% |
494 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 37% | 7% | 8% | ||
NYT/Siena College [150] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | – | 18% | ||
Emerson College [151] [J] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 37% | – | 18% |
Emerson College [152] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 39% | – | 21% |
Noble Predictive Insights [73] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 41% | 35% | – | 24% |
Emerson College [153] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 38% | – | 22% |
Change Research (D) [154] | December 3–7, 2023 | 2,532 (V) | – | 39% | 38% | 0% | 23% |
Tarrance Group (R) [155] [B] | October 23–26, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 40% | 5% | 10% |
Jacky Rosen vs. Jim Marchant
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Jacky Rosen (D) | Jim Marchant (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [152] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 34% | – | 22% |
Noble Predictive Insights [73] | February 27 – March 5, 2024 | 829 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 34% | – | 23% |
Emerson College [153] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 36% | – | 22% |
Jacky Rosen vs. Jeff Gunter
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [a] | Margin of error | Jacky Rosen (D) | Jeff Gunter (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College [151] [J] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 33% | – | 21% |
Emerson College [152] | March 12–15, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 34% | – | 23% |
Emerson College [153] | February 16–19, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 32% | – | 25% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jacky Rosen (incumbent) | 701,105 | 47.87% | −2.54% | |
Republican | Sam Brown | 677,046 | 46.22% | +0.84% | |
None of These Candidates | 44,380 | 3.03% | +1.46% | ||
Independent American | Janine Hansen | 21,316 | 1.46% | +0.73% | |
Libertarian | Chris Cunningham | 20,881 | 1.43% | +0.48% | |
Total votes | 1,464,728 | 100.0% | |||
Democratic hold |
Partisan clients
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Official campaign websites