2024 United States Senate election in Nevada

Last updated

2024 United States Senate election in Nevada
Flag of Nevada.svg
  2018 November 5, 20242030 
 
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Jacky Rosen
Democratic



The 2024 United States Senate election in Nevada will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Nevada. Incumbent Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen, elected in 2018 over incumbent Republican Dean Heller, is seeking a second term in office. Primary elections are scheduled to take place on June 11, 2024. [1]

Contents

Background

A typical swing state, Nevada is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Nevada by about two percentage points. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, majorities in both state legislative chambers, and all but one seat in its congressional delegation, while Republicans flipped the governorship in 2022. [2] [3] [4]

This race is considered to be competitive given the state's nearly even partisan lean, but most analysts consider Rosen to be a slight favorite to win reelection. [5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jacky Rosen (D)$24,321,665$11,288,943$13,210,912
Source: Federal Election Commission [32]

Results

Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jacky Rosen (incumbent)
Democratic Mike Schaefer
Democratic Troy Walker
Total votes

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Sam Brown
U.S. senators
Governors
Organizations
Jeffrey Ross Gunter
U.S. representatives
Jim Marchant
U.S. Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Individuals

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Sam BrownBill ConradTony GradyJeff GunterRonda KennedyBarry LindemannJim MarchantUndecided
Terrance Group [upper-alpha 1] April 7–10, 2024500(LV)± 4.5%58%3%3%6%29%
Noble Predictive Insights February 27 – March 5, 2024296 (RV)± 5.7%39%26%35%
Tarrance Group [upper-alpha 1] October 23–26, 2023600 (LV)± 4.1%24%5%1%9%41%
Public Opinion Strategies [upper-alpha 2] August 15–17, 2023500 (LV)± 4.38%33%1%2%1%1%1%15%44%

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Sam Brown (R)$5,440,210$3,139,324$2,300,886
Tony Grady Jr (R)$234,141$199,469$34,673
Jeffrey Ross Gunter (R)$3,276,169$706,359$2,569,810
Ronda Kennedy (R) [lower-alpha 2] $4,873$4,226$647
Jim Marchant (R)$394,359$343,713$50,646
Stephanie Phillips (R)$56,448$48,412$8,035
Source: Federal Election Commission [32]

Results

Republican primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Sam Brown
Republican William Conrad
Republican Tony Grady Jr.
Republican Jeffrey Ross Gunter
Republican Edward Hamilton
Republican Ronda Kennedy
Republican Barry Lindemann
Republican Garn Mabey
Republican Jim Marchant
Republican Gary Marinch
Republican Stephanie Phillips
Republican Vincent Rego
Republican Shawn White
Total votes

Third-party and independent candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [55] TossupApril 3, 2024
Inside Elections [56] Tilt DNovember 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [57] Lean DNovember 9, 2023
Elections Daily [58] Lean DMay 4, 2023
CNalysis [59] Tilt DNovember 21, 2023

Polling

Jacky Rosen vs. Sam Brown

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jacky
Rosen (D)
Sam
Brown (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%39%21%
Noble Predictive Insights February 27 – March 5, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%41%35%24%
Emerson College February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%38%22%
Change Research (D) December 3–7, 20232,532 (V)± ?39%38%0%23%
Tarrance Group (R) [upper-alpha 1] October 23–26, 2023600 (LV)± 4.1%45%40%5%10%
Jacky Rosen vs. Jim Marchant
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jacky
Rosen (D)
Jim
Marchant (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%34%22%
Noble Predictive Insights February 27 – March 5, 2024829 (RV)± 3.4%43%34%23%
Emerson College February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%36%22%
Jacky Rosen vs. Jeff Gunter
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Jacky
Rosen (D)
Jeff
Gunter (R)
OtherUndecided
Emerson College March 12–15, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%34%23%
Emerson College February 16–19, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%43%32%25%

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Did not file for Q4
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which supports Brown
  2. Poll commissioned by Duty First Super PAC, which supports Brown

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References

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Official campaign websites