2024 United States presidential election in Ohio

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Ohio

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Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. ^[1]

A heavily-populated Midwestern state partly within the Rust Belt, Ohio has been considered a vital bellwether state for decades and has been decided by single digits at the presidential level since 1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at-large when Donald Trump carried the state by just over 8 points in the past two elections despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially 2020, in which the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in 60 years. The GOP's overwhelming success in Ohio during the 2022 midterms has further testified to the state's rightward shift and the possible death of its bellwether and swing-state distinctions. Today a slightly to moderately red state, Ohio is expected to be less heavily contested in 2024 than in the past several presidential election cycles, with major news organizations predicting the state to lean towards the GOP candidate (presumably Trump). ^[2]

The election will be held concurrently with a U.S. Senate race in Ohio which, despite the state's current Republican lean, is expected to be competitive, among other state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[3] If he wins without the state again, he will become the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to win another term without carrying the state. If he loses Ohio by double digits, he will be the first presidential candidate to do so since fellow Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Ohio Democratic presidential primary

The Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside the Arizona, Illinois, Kansas primaries.

Ohio Democratic primary, March 19, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	456,523	87.1%	118
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	67,889	12.9%
Total:	524,412	100.00%	127	16	133
Source: [4]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Ohio Republican presidential primary

The Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.

Ohio Republican Primary, March 19, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	889,000	79.2%	79
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	161,357	14.4%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	37,904	3.4%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	19,896	1.8%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	14,412	1.3%
Total:	1,050,357	100.0%	79		79
Source: [5]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [6]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [7]	Likely R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8]	Likely R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [9]	Likely R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [10]	Likely R	December 30, 2023
CNN [11]	Solid R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University	March 13–15, 2024	818 (RV)	± 3.4%	51%	40%	9%
Ohio Northern University	March 6–11, 2024	1,241 (LV)	± 3.3%	50%	38%	12%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1]	March 7–10, 2024	1,300 (RV)	± 2.6%	55%	45%	–
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1]	January 23–25, 2024	1,844 (RV)	± 2.3%	47%	36%	17%
Emerson College/WJW-TV	November 10–13, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	50%	38%	12%
Data for Progress (D)	October 31 – November 2, 2023	597 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	43%	6%
Ohio Northern University	October 16–19, 2023	668 (RV)	± 3.8%	45%	40%	15% [lower-alpha 2]
Emerson College	October 2–4, 2023	438 (RV)	± 4.5%	45%	33%	23%
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,559 (RV)	–	48%	43%	9%
Ohio Northern University	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	49%	39%	12%
Targoz Market Research	November 2–6, 2022	505 (LV)	± 4.3%	57%	40%	3%
Emerson College	October 30 – November 1, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	38%	12%
Ohio Northern University/Lucid	October 11–15, 2022	668 (LV)	–	55%	35%	10%
Emerson College	October 6–7, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	40%	12%
Emerson College	September 12–13, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	50%	40%	10%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	831 (LV)	± 4.3%	49%	41%	10%
Emerson College	August 15–16, 2022	925 (LV)	± 3.2%	53%	39%	8%
PEM Management Corporation (R) [upper-alpha 2]	July 22–24, 2022	300 (LV)	± 5.7%	42%	44%	14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Other / Undecided
East Carolina University	March 8–11, 2024	1,298 (LV)	± 3.2%	48%	38%	5%	1%	1%	7%
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1]	March 7–10, 2024	1,300 (RV)	± 2.6%	47%	38%	6%	1%	1%	7%
Emerson College/WJW-TV	November 10–13, 2023	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	31%	8%	1%	2%	13%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	March 6–11, 2024	1,241 (LV)	± 3.3%	44%	32%	13%	11%
Ohio Northern University	October 16–19, 2023	668 (RV)	± 3.8%	42%	35%	11%	12% [lower-alpha 3]

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Cornel West Green	Other / Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,559 (RV)	–	45%	36%	9%	10%
Suffolk University	July 9–12, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	44%	38%	2%	16%

Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Joe Manchin Independent	Cornel West Independent	Other / Undecided
Change Research/Future Majority (D)	September 16–19, 2023	1,559 (RV)	–	42%	34%	6%	6%	12%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Kamala Harris Democratic	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	March 6–11, 2024	1,241 (LV)	± 3.3%	51%	38%	11%

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Gavin Newsom Democratic	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	March 6–11, 2024	1,241 (LV)	± 3.3%	51%	33%	16%

Donald Trump vs. Gretchen Whitmer

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Gretchen Whitmer Democratic	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	March 6–11, 2024	1,241 (LV)	± 3.3%	51%	34%	15%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Nikki Haley Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	October 16–19, 2023	668 (RV)	± 3.8%	34%	36%	30% [lower-alpha 4]
Ohio Northern University	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	38%	38%	24%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	October 16–19, 2023	668 (RV)	± 3.8%	38%	41%	21% [lower-alpha 5]
Ohio Northern University	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	41%	39%	20%
Emerson College	October 6–7, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	38%	13%
Emerson College	September 12–13, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	48%	38%	14%
Echelon Insights	August 31 – September 7, 2022	831 (LV)	± 4.3%	46%	40%	14%

Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Ron Desantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Cornel West Green	Other / Undecided
Suffolk University	July 9–12, 2023	500 (RV)	± 4.4%	39%	37%	2%	22%

Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Chris Christie Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	33%	39%	28%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Mike Pence Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	October 16–19, 2023	668 (RV)	± 3.8%	38%	38%	24% [lower-alpha 6]
Ohio Northern University	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	37%	38%	25%

Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Tim Scott Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Ohio Northern University	July 17–26, 2023	675 (RV)	± 3.7%	38%	39%	23%

Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Causeway Solutions	May 19–27, 2023	1,639 (RV)	± 2.5%	45%	33%	22%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Ohio
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 10%
3. Some Other Candidate at 2%; Undecided at 10%
4. Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 22%
5. Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 16%
6. Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 16%

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
2. Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
3. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
4. "Ohio Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
5. "Ohio Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
6. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
8. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.