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Elections in Ohio |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat. [1]
A heavily-populated Midwestern state partly within the Rust Belt, Ohio has been considered a vital bellwether state for decades and has been decided by single digits at the presidential level since 1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at-large when Donald Trump carried the state by just over 8 points in the past two elections despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially 2020, in which the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in 60 years. The GOP's overwhelming success in Ohio during the 2022 midterms has further testified to the state's rightward shift and the possible death of its bellwether and swing-state distinctions. Today a slightly to moderately red state, Ohio is expected to be less heavily contested in 2024 than in the past several presidential election cycles, with major news organizations predicting the state to lean towards the GOP candidate (presumably Trump). [2]
The election will be held concurrently with a U.S. Senate race in Ohio which, despite the state's current Republican lean, is expected to be competitive, among other state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [3] If he wins without the state again, he will become the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to win another term without carrying the state. If he loses Ohio by double digits, he will be the first presidential candidate to do so since fellow Democrat Michael Dukakis in 1988.
The Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside the Arizona, Illinois, Kansas primaries.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Joe Biden (incumbent) | 456,523 | 87.1% | 118 | ||
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 67,889 | 12.9% | |||
Total: | 524,412 | 100.00% | 127 | 16 | 133 |
Source: [4] |
The Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.
Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
Donald Trump | 889,000 | 79.2% | 79 | ||
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 161,357 | 14.4% | |||
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 37,904 | 3.4% | |||
Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 19,896 | 1.8% | |||
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 14,412 | 1.3% | |||
Total: | 1,050,357 | 100.0% | 79 | 79 | |
Source: [5] |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
Cook Political Report [6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
Inside Elections [7] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [8] | Likely R | June 29, 2023 |
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [9] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
CNalysis [10] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
CNN [11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 55% | 45% | – |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1,844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 47% | 36% | 17% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Data for Progress (D) | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 40% | 15% [lower-alpha 2] |
Emerson College | October 2–4, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 23% |
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
Targoz Market Research | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
Emerson College | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
Ohio Northern University/Lucid | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
Emerson College | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
Emerson College | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
PEM Management Corporation (R) [upper-alpha 2] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent | Cornel West Independent | Jill Stein Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
East Carolina University | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Emerson College [upper-alpha 1] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
Emerson College/WJW-TV | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Robert F Kennedy Jr. Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 32% | 13% | 11% |
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12% [lower-alpha 3] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Cornel West Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 9% | 10% |
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Joe Manchin Independent | Cornel West Independent | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 42% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Kamala Harris Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Gavin Newsom Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Donald Trump Republican | Gretchen Whitmer Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 34% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Nikki Haley Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | 30% [lower-alpha 4] |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 21% [lower-alpha 5] |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
Emerson College | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
Emerson College | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
Echelon Insights | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Ron Desantis Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Cornel West Green | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk University | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Chris Christie Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 39% | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Mike Pence Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 38% | 24% [lower-alpha 6] |
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 38% | 25% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Tim Scott Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ohio Northern University | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 39% | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [lower-alpha 1] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Joe Biden Democratic | Other / Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Causeway Solutions | May 19–27, 2023 | 1,639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 33% | 22% |
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