2024 United States presidential election in Georgia

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2024 United States presidential election in Georgia
Flag of Georgia (U.S. state).svg
←  2020 November 5, 20242028 →
  Joe Biden presidential portrait (cropped).jpg Donald Trump 2023 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joe Biden
(presumptive)		 Donald Trump
(presumptive)
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris
(presumptive)		 TBA
Incumbent President

Joe Biden
Democratic



The 2024 United States presidential election in Georgia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Georgia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Georgia has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which it neither gained nor lost a seat. [1] Georgia is considered to be a crucial swing state in 2024. [2]

Contents

Despite being located in the conservative Bible Belt and Deep South regions, Georgia has become competitive since the start of the 2020s and is considered as purple to slightly red state today, after having been a moderately red state in the late 2000s going through the 2010s. The last Republican presidential candidate to win Georgia by double digits, and the only one to win the state more than once, was fellow Southerner George W. Bush. This leftward shift is mainly attributed to the rapid population growth that the progressive and diverse Atlanta metro, which holds much of the state's population, has experienced in the 21st century, including an influx of African Americans, Asian Americans, Latinos and progressive Whites. In 2020, Joe Biden very narrowly carried the state by 0.23%, making Georgia the closest state that election and making Biden the first Democrat since Southerner Bill Clinton in 1992 to win the state's electoral votes, and the first non-Southern Democrat to do so since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term. [3] If he carries the state once more, he will become the first Democratic presidential candidate since favorite son Jimmy Carter in 1980 to carry the state in two consecutive presidential elections. This race is considered to be a tossup given the state's nearly even partisan lean, however, most polls show Trump to be the favorite to win. Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in late February. [4]

Primary elections

Democratic primary

The Georgia Democratic primary was held on March 12, 2024. [5]

Georgia Democratic primary, March 12, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)272,36393.1%108
Marianne Williamson 8,5692.9%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)5,2051.8%
Blank ballots6,4292.2%
Overvotes2<0.1%
Total:292,568100.00%10816124
Source: [6]

Republican primary

The Georgia Republican primary was held on March 12, 2024. [7]

Georgia Republican primary, March 12, 2024
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 497,59484.5%5656
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)77,90213.2%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)7,4571.3%
Chris Christie (withdrawn)2,0540.3%
Tim Scott (withdrawn)1,3980.2%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)1,2440.2%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn)3830.1%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)3770.1%
David Stuckenberg243<0.1%
Doug Burgum (withdrawn)161<0.1%
Perry Johnson (withdrawn)134<0.1%
Total:588,947100.0%5959
Source: [8]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [9] TossupDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [10] TossupApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11] TossupJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [12] TossupDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [13] TossupDecember 30, 2023
CNN [14] Lean R (flip)January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Fox News April 11–16, 20241,128 (RV)± 3.0%45%51%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult April 8–15, 2024802 (RV)± 3.0%43%49%8%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%43%44%13%
Echelon Insights [upper-alpha 1] March 12–19, 2024400 (LV)± 5.7%42%52%6%
Marist College March 11–14, 20241,177 (RV)± 3.7%47%51%2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024788 (RV)± 3.0%42%49%9%
CBS News/YouGov March 4–11, 20241,133 (RV)± 3.9%48%51%1%
Emerson College March 5–7, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%52%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024800 (RV)± 3.0%43%49%8%
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%42%48%10%
Fox News January 26–30, 20241,119 (RV)± 3.0%43%51%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024798 (RV)± 3.0%41%49%10%
Atlanta Journal-Constitution January 3–11, 20241,007 (RV)± 3.1%37%45%18%
CNN/SSRS November 30 – December 7, 20231,068 (RV)± 3.3%44%49%7%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023801 (RV)± 3.0%43%49%8%
J.L. Partners November 27 – December 1, 2023550 (LV)± 4.2%44%46%10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023803 (RV)± 3.0%41%48%11%
Emerson College October 30 – November 4, 20231,000 (RV)± 3.0%40%47%14%
University of Georgia School of Public and International Affairs [upper-alpha 2] October 30 – November 3, 20231,002 (LV)± 3.1%44%45%11%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023629 (RV)± 4.5%43%49%8%
Zogby Analytics October 9–12, 2023628 (LV)± 3.9%49%51%–
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 5–10, 2023801 (RV)± 3.0%43%48%9%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023761 (LV)–40%43%17%
Rasmussen Reports (R) September 8–11, 20231,061 (LV)± 3.0%38%47%–
Prime Group [upper-alpha 3] June 14–28, 2023500 (RV)–48%52%–
500 (RV)–36%45%19% [lower-alpha 2]
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 4] June 5–7, 2023600 (LV)± 4%41%42%17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) May 15–17, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%44%43%13%
Public Opinion Strategies (R) April 25–27, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%44%43%13%
Emerson College November 28–30, 2022888 (LV)± 3.2%44%43%13%
University of Massachusetts Lowell November 18–28, 20221,300 (LV)± 3.2%47%43%7%
Targoz Market Research November 2–6, 2022579 (LV)± 4.0%43%52%5%
Emerson College October 28–31, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%44%47%9%
Rasmussen Reports (R) October 23–24, 20221,053 (LV)± 3.0%39%47%14%
Emerson College October 6–7, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%43%45%12%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022751 (LV)± 4.4%47%45%8%
Emerson College August 28–29, 2022600 (LV)± 3.9%46%51%3%
PEM Management Corporation (R) [upper-alpha 5] July 22–24, 2022300 (LV)± 5.7%40%48%12%
East Carolina University June 6–9, 2022868 (RV)± 3.9%40%47%13%
Blueprint Polling (D) March 2–8, 2022662 (V)± 3.9%36%50%14%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [upper-alpha 6] November 11–16, 2021600 (LV)± 4.0%45%48%7%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Jill
Stein
Green		Other /
Undecided
Fox News April 11–16, 20241,128 (RV)± 3.0%39%46%7%1%2%5%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult April 8–15, 2024802 (RV)± 3.0%40%45%7%1%1%6%
Wall Street Journal March 17–24, 2024600 (RV)± 4.0%35%38%8%2%1%16%
Emerson College March 5–7, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%37%44%5%2%1%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult March 8–12, 2024788 (RV)± 3.0%38%45%7%2%0%8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult February 12–20, 2024800 (RV)± 3.0%38%45%6%1%1%9%
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%36%45%6%1%1%11%
Fox News January 26–30, 20241,119 (RV)± 3.0%37%45%8%3%1%6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult January 16–21, 2024798 (RV)± 3.0%37%44%8%1%1%11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult November 27 – December 6, 2023801 (RV)± 3.0%37%44%6%2%1%10%
J.L. Partners/Daily Mail November 27 – December 1, 2023550 (LV)± 4.2%41%45%2%1%0%10% [lower-alpha 3]
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies March 14–17, 2024760 (LV)–41%44%6%9%
Marist College March 11–14, 20241,177 (RV)± 3.7%40%45%14%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies December 28–30, 2023953 (LV)–34%42%8%16%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023746 (LV)–35%45%7%14%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023629 (LV)± 4.529%36%24%1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies October 7–9, 2023761 (LV)–38%41%8%13%
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		Cornel
West
Independent		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS November 30 – December 7, 20231068 (RV)± 3.3%34%42%15%6%4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult October 30 – November 7, 2023803 (RV)± 3.0%34%43%10%1%12%
Zogby Analytics October 9–12, 2023628 (LV)± 3.9%36%44%15%5%–
Hypothetical polling
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Kamala
Harris
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%41%51%8%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023629 (RV)± 4.5%44%45%11%
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic		Donald
Trump
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College February 14–16, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%32%51%17%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Other /
Undecided
CNN/SSRS November 30 – December 7, 20231,068 (RV)± 3.3%43%49%8%
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023629 (RV)± 4.5%40%45%15%
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Nikki
Haley
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023746 (LV)–35%27%17%5%15%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Other /
Undecided
New York Times/Siena College October 22 – November 3, 2023629 (RV)± 4.5%44%45%11%
Public Opinion Strategies May 15–17, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%42%45%–
Public Opinion Strategies April 25–27, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%42%47%11%
Emerson College November 28–30, 2022888 (LV)± 3.2%43%47%10%
University of Massachusetts Lowell November 18–28, 20221,300 (LV)± 3.2%46%47%7%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022751 (LV)± 4.4%47%42%11%
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Ron
DeSantis
Republican		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 27–29, 2023746 (LV)–36%34%14%4%12%
Joe Biden vs. Mike Pence
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Mike
Pence
Republican		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies May 15–17, 2023500 (RV)± 4.4%44%43%–
Joe Biden vs. generic Republican
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden
Democratic		Generic
Republican		Undecided
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 4] June 5–7, 2023600 (LV)± 4%38%48%14%

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ No Labels candidate
  3. ↑ "Someone else" with 10%
Partisan clients
  1. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
  2. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC
  4. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Hardworking Americans PAC
  5. ↑ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  6. ↑ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign

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References

  1. ↑ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ↑ Gellman, Barton (July 29, 2022). "How Six States Could Overturn the 2024 Election". The Atlantic. Retrieved August 6, 2022.
  3. ↑ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  4. ↑ Pellish, Aaron (February 27, 2024). "Super PAC supporting RFK Jr. says it has gathered enough signatures to put him on ballot in Arizona, Georgia | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
  5. ↑ "Georgia Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  6. ↑ "2024 PRES PREF PRIMARY ELECTIO". Varun's Live Election Maps. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
  7. ↑ "Georgia Republican Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved May 5, 2023.
  8. ↑ "Georgia Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 5, 2024.
  9. ↑ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ↑ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ↑ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ↑ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ↑ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
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