2024 United States presidential election in Vermont

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Vermont

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Turnout	72.12%
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance Electoral vote 3 0 Popular vote 235,791 119,395 Percentage 63.83% 32.32%
County results Municipality results Precinct results Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70% Tie   50% No Votes
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections. Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Vermont has 3 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

Vermont was won by the Democratic candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, by a landslide margin of 31.21%; while her margin of victory slightly decreased from Biden's 35.41% in 2020, and Trump managed to narrowly flip Orleans County, Vermont was once again the most Democratic state in the nation, only the second occasion in the state's history (behind 2020) in which it was the strongest for the Democrats, ^[2] and the first time since 1956 in which it was the strongest state for either party in back-to-back elections. ^[3] Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Vermont a state Harris would win, or otherwise a safe blue state. ^[4]

As a sparsely populated rural state in northern New England, Vermont was historically a moderate/liberal "Yankee Republican" stronghold, having backed the GOP in all but one presidential election between the party's formation and George H.W. Bush's narrow victory in 1988, the exception being Lyndon B. Johnson's 1964 landslide. However, an influx of more liberal voters has turned Vermont into a Democratic stronghold at the presidential level since the early 1990s, as the state has been won by the Democratic candidate in every presidential race starting in 1992, all of these victories being by double digits apart from Al Gore's 9.93% win in 2000.

This is the first election since 2000 in which Orleans County was won by the Republican candidate.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Vermont Republican presidential primary

The Vermont Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Nikki Haley won the primary, becoming the first woman to win a state primary in a Republican presidential primary. ^[5]

Vermont Republican primary, March 5, 2024 ^[6]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Nikki Haley	36,241	49.32%	9		9
Donald Trump	33,162	45.13%	8		8
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	1,020	1.39%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	949	1.29%
Write-in votes	586	0.80%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	546	0.74%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	278	0.38%
Overvotes	51	0.07%
Blank ballots	654	0.89%
Total:	73,487	100.00%	17		17

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Vermont Democratic presidential primary

The Vermont Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Joe Biden won the primary.

Vermont Democratic primary, March 5, 2024 ^{[7] [8]}

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	56,924	82.98%	16
Marianne Williamson	2,873	4.19%
Dean Phillips	1,942	2.83%
Other write-ins	1,260	1.84%
Mark Greenstein	779	1.14%
Rashida Tlaib (write-in)	763	1.11%
Cenk Uygur	700	1.02%
"Blank" (write-in)	556	0.81%
Jason Palmer	404	0.59%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (write-in) (Independent)	322	0.47%
Bernie Sanders (write-in) (Independent)	288	0.42%
Nikki Haley (write-in) (Republican)	187	0.27%
Kamala Harris (write-in)	23	0.03%
Overvotes	73	0.10%
Blank ballots	1,525	2.22%
Total:	68,599	100%	16	8	24

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [9]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [10]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [12]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [13]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [14]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist [15]	Safe D	June 12, 2024
538 [16]	Solid D	June 11, 2024
NBC News [17]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
	August 23, 2024	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
	August 22, 2024	Democratic National Convention concludes
University of New Hampshire [18]	August 15–19, 2024	924 (LV)	± 3.2%	70%	29%	1%
	August 19, 2024	Democratic National Convention begins

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr Independent	Cornel West Independent	Jill Stein Green	Chase Oliver Libertarian	Other / Undecided
University of New Hampshire [19]	October 29 – November 2, 2024	1,167 (LV)	± 2.9%	63%	31%	2%	0%	–	0%	4% [b]
University of New Hampshire [18]	August 15–19, 2024	924 (LV)	± 3.2%	67%	27%	3%	0%	–	0%	3% [c]

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [20] [A]	April 13–21, 2024	272 (LV)	–	56%	35%	9%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University [21]	February 29 – March 3, 2024	117 (RV)	–	58%	28%	14% [d]
		111 (LV)		59%	28%	13% [e]

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [20] [A]	April 13–21, 2024	272 (LV)	–	47%	42%	11%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [20] [A]	April 13–21, 2024	272 (LV)	–	52%	29%	19%

Results

Swing by county (black border denotes flips) ^{[22] [23]}

Legend

•   Republican — +0-2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5-5%
•   Republican — +5-7.5%

2024 United States presidential election in Vermont ^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	235,791	63.83%	–2.26%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	119,395	32.32%	+1.65%
	We the People	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	5,905	1.60%	New
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	1,828	0.49%	–0.49%
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz Karina Garcia	1,710	0.46%	New
	Green Mountain Peace and Justice	Cornel West Melina Abdullah	1,549	0.42%	+0.37%
	Socialist Workers	Rachele Fruit Dennis Richter	211	0.06%	+0.01%
	Write-in		3,033	0.82%	+0.29%
Total votes			369,422	100.00%	N/A

By county

County[ citation needed ]	Kamala Harris Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total votes cast
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Addison	14,879	65.82%	6,841	30.26%	887	3.92%	8,038	35.56%	22,607
Bennington	12,326	59.52%	7,697	37.17%	687	3.31%	4,629	22.35%	20,710
Caledonia	8,977	53.97%	6,927	41.65%	729	4.38%	2,050	12.32%	16,633
Chittenden	72,656	74.65%	20,937	21.51%	3,736	3.84%	51,719	53.14%	97,329
Essex	1,344	39.24%	1,890	55.18%	191	5.58%	-546	-15.94%	3,425
Franklin	13,280	49.66%	12,490	46.70%	945	3.66%	790	2.96%	26,743
Grand Isle	2,940	58.79%	1,893	37.85%	168	3.36%	1,047	20.94%	5,001
Lamoille	9,788	65.94%	4,505	30.35%	551	3.71%	5,283	35.59%	14,844
Orange	10,220	57.83%	6,683	37.82%	769	4.35%	3,537	20.01%	17,672
Orleans	7,006	47.45%	7,233	48.99%	526	3.56%	-227	-1.54%	14,765
Rutland	17,375	50.95%	15,586	45.70%	1,141	3.35%	1,789	5.25%	34,102
Washington	24,527	69.35%	9,327	26.37%	1,515	4.28%	15,200	42.98%	35,369
Windham	17,904	69.04%	6,928	26.71%	1,101	4.25%	10,976	42.33%	25,933
Windsor	22,569	65.82%	10,458	30.50%	1,262	3.68%	12,111	35.32%	34,289
Totals	235,791	63.83%	119,395	32.32%	14,236	3.85%	116,396	31.51%	369,422

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Orleans (largest city: Derby)

See also

• United States presidential elections in Vermont
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 2%; "Another Candidate" with 1%
3. "Another candidate" with 1%
4. "Another candidate" with 8%
5. "Another candidate" with 7%

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
2. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
3. • "Election 2024 live updates: Latest news and results as voters head to the polls to vote for Trump or Harris". nbcnews.com. NBC News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
   • "Election 2024: Presidential results". cnn.com. CNN. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
   • "Election Day 2024 live updates as Trump-Harris polls remain tied, U.S. gets out to vote". cbsnews.com. CBS News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
   • "2024 presidential election live updates: Americans head to the polls to choose between Harris or Trump". apnews.com. AP News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
   • "Election Day 2024: Live results and analysis". abcnews.go.com. ABC News. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
4. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved April 1, 2024.
5. Vakil, Caroline (March 6, 2024). "Haley defeats Trump in Vermont GOP primary". The Hill. Retrieved March 6, 2024.
6. "Official Report of the Canvassing Committee – United States and Vermont Statewide Offices" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
7. "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. Retrieved March 12, 2024.
8. "Vermont Election Night Results". Vermont Secretary of State . Retrieved March 15, 2024.
9. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
14. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
15. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved June 12, 2024.
16. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
17. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
18. "Harris Holds Wide Lead Over Trump in Vermont, Many Worried About Peaceful Transfer of Power". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository. August 21, 2024.
19. McKinley, Sean; Smith, Andrew; Azem, Zachary; Keirns, Tracy (November 3, 2024). "Harris Maintains Wide Lead Over Trump in Vermont, Fears of Political Violence Widespread". University of New Hampshire Scholars' Repository.
20. "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
21. "Mainstreet Research Survey - Super Tuesday States" (PDF). FAU Polling. March 4, 2024.
22. "Vermont Election Results". bloomberg.com. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
23. "Vermont Election Results". Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
24. "2024 General Election Canvass Report" (PDF). VT SOS. Retrieved December 10, 2024.