2024 United States presidential election in Maine

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Maine

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Joe Biden (presumptive) Donald Trump (presumptive) Party Democratic Republican Home state Delaware Florida Running mate Kamala Harris (presumptive) TBA

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Maine is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Maine voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Maine has four electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1] Unlike all other states except Nebraska, Maine awards two electoral votes based on the statewide vote, and one vote for each congressional district. The at-large votes are expected to be contested by both parties, but are favored to be carried by the Democratic presidential candidate, having last been won by a Republican in 1988. However, the two congressional districts are expected to be split between the Democratic and Republican candidates, something that has occurred in 2016 and 2020.

On December 28, 2023, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows removed Donald Trump from the ballot in a similar decision to Anderson v. Griswold in Colorado. ^[2] On January 2, 2024, Trump appealed the ruling to the Maine Superior Court, arguing that Bellows is biased and that she has "no legal authority to consider the federal constitutional issues presented by the challengers". ^[3] On January 17, a Maine Superior Court judge ordered the Bellows to wait for the Colorado case to be adjudicated by the Supreme Court before upholding or modifying her decision. Bellows appealed this decision to the Maine Supreme Judicial Court. ^[4] On March 4, 2024, the Supreme Court unanimously ruled that Donald Trump is allowed to remain on the Maine ballot. ^[5]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is running for reelection to a second term. ^[6]

While Biden has led in most state-wide polls, some data suggests that Maine at-large could be a secondary battleground during the 2024 election cycle. In 2016, Trump narrowly lost Maine at-large to Hillary Clinton by less than 3%.

Primary elections

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Maine Democratic presidential primary

The Maine Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Maine Democratic primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	60,018	82.8%	24
Dean Phillips	4,623	6.4%
Other candidates	480	0.7%
Blank ballots	7,359	10.2%
Total:	72,480	100%	24	8	32
Source: [7]

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Maine Republican presidential caucuses

The Maine Republican caucuses was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Maine Republican primary, March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	79,034	71.9%	20
Nikki Haley	27,912	25.4%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	1,191	1.1%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn)	440	0.4%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	299	0.3%
Blank ballots	1,022	0.9%
Total:	109,898	100.00%	20		20
Source: [8]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [9]	Likely D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [10]	Likely D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [11]	Likely D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [12]	Lean D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [13]	Likely D	December 30, 2023
CNN [14]	Safe D	January 14, 2024

Polling

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research	February 6–14, 2024	791 (LV)	± 3.5%	31%	38%	30% [lower-alpha 2]
Digital Research	October 3 – November 2, 2023	614 (RV)	± 3.9%	36%	35%	29% [lower-alpha 3]
Emerson College	September 19–20, 2022	1,164 (LV)	± 2.8%	51%	40%	9%

Maine's 1st congressional district

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research	February 6–14, 2024	791 (LV)	± 3.5%	39%	31%	31% [lower-alpha 4]
Digital Research	October 3 – November 2, 2023	307 (RV)	–	43%	27%	30%

Maine's 2nd congressional district

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
Pan Atlantic Research	February 6–14, 2024	791 (LV)	± 3.5%	25%	45%	30% [lower-alpha 5]
Digital Research	October 3 – November 2, 2023	307 (RV)	–	28%	42%	30%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Maine
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. Other candidate with 21%
3. Other candidate with 10%
4. Other candidate with 23%
5. Other candidate with 19%

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. Cohen, Marshall (December 28, 2023). "Maine's top election official removes Trump from 2024 ballot | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
3. Russell, Jenna (January 2, 2024). "Trump Appeals Decision Barring Him From Maine Primary Ballot". The New York Times . Retrieved January 2, 2024.
4. "Maine secretary of state appeals superior court ruling in Trump ballot case". newscentermaine.com. January 19, 2024. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
5. "Supreme Court rules states can't kick Trump off the ballot". NBC News. March 4, 2024. Archived from the original on March 6, 2024. Retrieved March 7, 2024.
6. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
7. "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
8. "Tabulations for Elections held in 2024: March 5, 2024 Presidential Primary Election". Maine Secretary of State. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
9. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
14. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.