2026 United States Senate election in Maine

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2026 United States Senate election in Maine
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Susan Collins
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Maine will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maine. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins has not stated whether she will run for re-election to a sixth term in office.

Contents

This will be the only Republican-held Senate seat up for election in 2026 in a state that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election. Collins is the only incumbent Republican senator in any of the 19 states that Donald Trump did not win in any of his three elections. [1]

This election will coincide with U.S. House elections for Maine's two congressional districts, a gubernatorial election, and various other state, county and local elections. The primary is scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Both the primary and general elections will be conducted with ranked-choice voting. [2]

Background

The northernmost state in New England, Maine is one of the most rural states in the nation and is considered to be a moderately blue state, having voted for every Democratic presidential nominee since 1992 and voting for Kamala Harris by about seven percentage points in 2024. Democrats also control the governorship, the state legislature, and both seats in Maine's U.S. House congressional delegation. [3] Furthermore, after Jared Golden defeated Bruce Poliquin in Maine's 2nd congressional district in 2018, Collins has been the only Republican representing any state in New England at the federal level, in either chamber of Congress. [4]

Collins was first elected in 1996 and was re-elected in four subsequent elections, significantly outperforming other Republicans in the state. In 2020, despite almost all polls and analysts predicting that she would lose her re-election bid, Collins unexpectedly defeated Democratic nominee Sara Gideon by about eight percentage points. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden carried Maine by about nine percentage points on the same ballot. [5]

As the only Republican-held Senate seat up for election in a state that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election and Collins' record of overperformance despite the state's Democratic lean, Maine is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026. This Senate seat has been held by Republicans since 1979, when Collins' predecessor, Republican William Cohen, defeated incumbent Democrat William Hathaway.

With the decline of ticket splitting and being in a midterm year with a Republican president, Collins is widely viewed as the most vulnerable incumbent Republican senator. [6] [7] Following the retirement of Joe Manchin and the defeats of Democratic senators Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown in 2024, Collins remains the last senator to represent a non-swing state of the opposite party (i.e., a reliably red or blue state).

Republican primary

Collins was first elected in 1996. With Collins being a moderate conservative and sometimes a swing vote, she could face a more conservative primary opponent.[ citation needed ] However, she has the firm backing of national Republicans. [8]

Candidates

Declared

  • Dan Smeriglio, former police officer [9]

Publicly expressed interest

Filed paperwork

  • Carmen Calabrese [11]

Endorsements

Susan Collins (not declared)
Organizations

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Susan Collins (R)$6,014,341$2,053,616$5,255,917
Source: Federal Election Commission [13]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Dan Kleban
State legislators
Individuals
Graham Platner
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
Janet Mills (undeclared)
U.S. senators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Tucker Favreau (D)$4,724$676$4,048
Jordan Wood (D)$1,606,800$802,732$804,068
Source: Federal Election Commission [13]

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Phillip Rench (I)$54,569$20,465$34,104
Source: Federal Election Commission [13]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [34] Tilt RAugust 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [35] Lean RAugust 18, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [36] Lean RAugust 12, 2025
Race To The WH [37] TossupSeptember 4, 2025

References

  1. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (December 5, 2025). "The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 9, 2025. Collins is now the lone outlier among all 100 senators as someone who continues to hold a Senate seat in a state that hasn't supported her party's presidential nominee in decades. Such outliers were important parts of past recent Democratic Senate majorities, but they will now be all gone.
  2. ↑ "Maine elections, 2026". Ballotpedia. Retrieved September 5, 2025.
  3. ↑ Cover, Susan (November 6, 2024). "Maine Democrats say they won enough seats to control state Senate". Spectrum News . Retrieved December 7, 2024.
  4. ↑ Scanlan, Quinn (July 11, 2020). "Susan Collins, Congress's last New England Republican, facing toughest reelection yet". ABC News . Retrieved August 1, 2025.
  5. ↑ Everett, Burgess (November 4, 2020). "Collins wins again in Maine, boosting Senate GOP". Politico . Retrieved December 7, 2024.
  6. ↑ Coleman, J. Miles (July 11, 2024). "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  7. ↑ Stanton, Andrew (November 14, 2024). "Susan Collins' Reelection Plan Throws a Wrench in Democrats' Senate Hopes". Newsweek . Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  8. ↑ "Who will Democrats find to run against Susan Collins in 2026?". Piscataquis Observer. April 19, 2025. Retrieved April 27, 2025.
  9. ↑ Collins, Steve (February 18, 2025). "A Frenchville Republican challenges Susan Collins". Sun Journal . Retrieved February 19, 2025.
  10. ↑ Davis, Emma (June 5, 2025). "Eyeing a sixth term, Collins is facing pressure from both sides". Maine Morning Star . Retrieved August 30, 2025.
  11. ↑ "CALABRESE, CARMEN VINCENT MR. - Candidate overview". FEC.gov. January 1, 2019. Retrieved May 16, 2025.
  12. ↑ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
  13. 1 2 3 "2026 Election United States Senate - Maine". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  14. ↑ Davis, Emma (June 5, 2025). "Eyeing a sixth term, Collins is facing pressure from both sides". Maine Morning Star . Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  15. ↑ Billings, Randy (June 11, 2025). "Brunswick Democrat announces campaign for Susan Collins' Senate seat". Portland Press Herald . Retrieved June 11, 2025.
  16. ↑ Cover, Susan (June 12, 2025). "Democrat enters race to challenge Maine Sen. Susan Collins". Spectrum News . Retrieved July 16, 2025.
  17. ↑ Kobin, Billy (September 3, 2025). "Maine Beer Company co-founder joins Democratic field to take on Susan Collins". Bangor Daily News . Retrieved September 3, 2025.
  18. ↑ McDuffie, Will (August 19, 2025). "Graham Platner, oysterman and harbormaster from rural Maine, enters race to challenge Sen. Susan Collins". ABC News . Retrieved August 19, 2025.
  19. ↑ Kobin, Billy (April 23, 2025). "Democrat with national ties announces 2026 bid to unseat Susan Collins". Bangor Daily News . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
  20. 1 2 3 Miller, Kevin (July 21, 2025). "Who will challenge Susan Collins in 2026?". Maine Public . Retrieved July 27, 2025.
  21. ↑ Kobin, Billy (September 3, 2025). "Maine Beer Company co-founder joins Democratic field to take on Susan Collins". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved September 8, 2025. Former state Sen. Cathy Breen of Falmouth said Tuesday she is considering a bid, while others have been waiting to make decisions until Mills, who is termed out of office next year, decides on whether to run for the Senate.
  22. ↑ Goldmacher, Shane (September 3, 2025). "In Maine, Brewery Owner Joins Push to Unseat Susan Collins". The New York Times. Retrieved September 8, 2025. "I'm exploring the opportunity and thinking about what a run would look like," Mr. Fecteau said, adding that he would most likely not run if Ms. Mills does. "I have a lot of respect for her," he said.
  23. ↑ Mundry, Jackie (August 6, 2025). "'I would think seriously about it' | Mills not ruling out a U.S. Senate run". WMTW . Retrieved August 18, 2025.
  24. ↑ Billings, Randy (August 27, 2025). "Janet Mills says decision on challenge to Susan Collins may come in November". Portland Press Herald . Retrieved August 27, 2025.
  25. ↑ Kobin, Billy (April 19, 2025). "Who will Democrats find to run against Susan Collins in 2026?". Bangor Daily News . Retrieved April 19, 2025.
  26. ↑ Kobin, Billy (May 20, 2025). "Jared Golden will run for reelection in Maine's 2nd District in 2026". Bangor Daily News . Retrieved May 20, 2025.
  27. ↑ Ohm, Rachel (May 27, 2025). "Who will Maine Democrats run against Susan Collins?". Portland Press Herald . Retrieved May 27, 2025.
  28. 1 2 Davis, Emma (September 3, 2025). "Maine Beer Company founder joins race against Susan Collins". Maine Morning Star . Retrieved September 5, 2025. After launching his campaign, Kleban announced later Wednesday Maine Senate President Mattie Daughtry and Lucas St. Clair, national board chair of the Trust for Public Land, as his campaign co-chairs.
  29. ↑ Ewing, Giselle Ruhiyyih (August 30, 2025). "Sanders wades into one of Democrats' best Senate pickup opportunities". Politico . Retrieved August 30, 2025.
  30. ↑ @TheMaineWire (September 5, 2025). "Graham Platner has secured the endorsement of CA Congressman Ro Khanna. The endorsement is another sign that Jordan Wood, the other well-funded Democrat in the Senate race, has been tossed aside in favor of the shiny new OysterMan" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  31. ↑ Tusinski, Dylan (September 1, 2025). "Bernie Sanders backs Graham Platner, Troy Jackson at Labor Day rally in Portland". Lewiston Sun Journal . Retrieved September 2, 2025.
  32. ↑ "Maine oyster farmer wants to upend Democratic politics with Senate bid". POLITICO. August 19, 2025.
  33. ↑ Fahlberg, Audrey (March 7, 2025). "Ex-Democrat SpaceX Engineer Challenging Maine Senator Susan Collins as an Independent". National Review . Retrieved April 12, 2025.
  34. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  35. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  36. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  37. ↑ "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
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