2026 United States Senate election in Maine

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2026 United States Senate election in Maine
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Party Republican Democratic
Incumbent U.S. senator

Susan Collins
Republican



The 2026 United States Senate election in Maine will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Maine. Incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins is running for re-election to a sixth term in office. This will be the only Republican-held Senate seat up for election in 2026 in a state that Kamala Harris won in the 2024 presidential election. This election will coincide with U.S. House elections for Maine's two congressional districts, a gubernatorial election, and various other state, county and local elections.

Contents

Background

Maine is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Kamala Harris carrying Maine by roughly 7 percentage points in the 2024 presidential election. Democrats also control the governorship, the state legislature, and both seats in Maine's U.S. House congressional delegation. [1]

Collins was first elected in 1996 and was re-elected in four subsequent elections, significantly outperforming other Republicans in the state. In 2020, despite almost all polls and analysts predicting that she would lose her re-election bid, Collins unexpectedly defeated Democratic nominee Sara Gideon by about 8 percentage points. Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden carried Maine by about 9 percentage points on the same ballot. [2]

As the only seat up held by a Republican in a state that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024 and Collins' record of overperformance despite the state's Democratic lean, Maine is considered a key Senate battleground in 2026. This Senate seat has been held by Republicans since 1979. With the decline of ticket splitting and being in a midterm year with a Republican president, Collins is widely viewed as the most vulnerable Republican incumbent senator. [3] [4]

Republican primary

Collins was first elected in 1996. With Collins being a moderate and potential swing vote, she could face a more conservative primary opponent. [5]

Candidates

Declared

  • Susan Collins, incumbent U.S. senator (1997–present) [6]
  • Dan Smeriglio, former police officer [7]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Natasha Alcala [8]

Potential

Independent and third party candidates

Candidates

Filed paperwork

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Inside Elections [13] BattlegroundJanuary 17, 2025
The Cook Political Report [14] Lean RFebruary 11, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [15] Lean RFebruary 13, 2025

References

  1. ↑ "Maine Democrats say they won enough seats to control state Senate". spectrumlocalnews.com. Retrieved December 7, 2024.
  2. ↑ Everett, Burgess (November 4, 2020). "Collins wins again in Maine, boosting Senate GOP". POLITICO. Retrieved December 7, 2024.
  3. ↑ Coleman, J. Miles (July 11, 2024). "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved April 27, 2023.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Stanton, Andrew (November 14, 2024). "Susan Collins' Reelection Plan Throws a Wrench in Democrats' Senate Hopes". Newsweek . Retrieved November 14, 2024.
  5. ↑ Bolton, Alexander (November 14, 2024). "Tuberville: 'We're gonna try to get you out of the Senate if you vote against Trump". The Hill . Retrieved November 15, 2024.
  6. ↑ Shepherd, Michael (November 15, 2024). "Susan Collins plans to run for historic 6th term in 2026". Piscataquis Observer. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
  7. ↑ Collins, Steve (February 18, 2025). "A Frenchville Republican challenges Susan Collins". Sun Journal . Retrieved February 19, 2025.
  8. ↑ Bartow, Adam (February 26, 2025). "Growing field: First Democrat files to challenge Sen. Susan Collins". WMTV . Retrieved February 26, 2025.
  9. ↑ Shepherd, Michael; Kobin, Billy (March 7, 2025). "Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson explores a run for governor". Bangor Daily News. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
  10. ↑ Billings, Randy (November 29, 2024). "Gov. Mills doesn't rule out challenging Susan Collins for U.S. Senate in 2026". Press Herald . Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  11. ↑ Solender, Andrew (November 27, 2024). "Scoop: A huge wave of House members is eyeing runs for other offices in 2026". Axios . Retrieved November 28, 2024.
  12. ↑ Shepherd, Michael (February 13, 2025). "Former Elon Musk employee enters 2026 race against Susan Collins". Bangor Daily News . Retrieved February 13, 2025.
  13. ↑ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
  14. ↑ "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
  15. ↑ "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
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