2026 United States Senate election in Texas

For related races, see 2026 United States Senate elections.

2026 United States Senate election in Texas

←  2020 November 3, 2026 2032 →

Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator John Cornyn Republican

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election held on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primaries. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a fifth term in office. Cornyn is facing a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1990, and an incumbent senator has not lost a primary since 1970.

Republican primary

Background

Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges. ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}

The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party’s establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction. ^[1] Republican primary voters in Texas have been increasingly divided as the insurgent hard-right faction has been steadily gaining ground in recent years and has ousted more traditional GOP elected officials. Polling has found clear evidence of the divide and that Paxton has a massive lead among "Trump Movement" voters while Cornyn leads among "Traditional Republicans" who make up a much smaller chunk of the electorate. ^[5] Trump had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO for backing the gun safety bill which Paxton has highlighted in ads. ^{[6] [7]} President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his. ^[8] Trump's endorsement is considered to be critical in deciding the winner of the primary. ^[9] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, has also avoided picking a side in the primary, having previously endorsed Cornyn in the last primary of 2020. ^[10]

Campaign

Paxton has led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race. Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents. ^[11] Cornyn told the Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would be willing to step aside if a candidate who could defeat Paxton emerged. However, Cornyn retracted this statement days later, saying he would not drop out of the race. ^[12]

Candidates

Declared

• Virgil Bierschwale, software developer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 ^{[13] [14]}
• John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present) ^[15]
• Alexander Duncan, police officer ^{[13] [14]}
• Gulrez Khan, home healthcare company owner, candidate for Texas's 32nd congressional district in 2024, and candidate for mayor of Lubbock in 2022 ^{[13] [14]}
• Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board ^[16]
• Barrett McNabb, chiropractic business owner ^[13]
• Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present) ^[17]
• Tony Schmoker, realtor ^{[13] [14]}
• Leo Wyatt ^{[13] [14]}

Publicly expressed interest

• Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present) ^[18]

Potential

• Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present) ^[19]
• Beth Van Duyne, U.S. representative from Texas's 24th congressional district (2021–present) ^[20]

Endorsements

John Cornyn

Executive branch officials

• Rick Perry, former Secretary of Energy (2017–2019) and former governor of Texas (2000–2015) ^[21]

U.S. senators

• John Barrasso, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present), Senate Majority Whip (2025–present) ^[22]
• Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present) ^[22]
• Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present) ^[22]
• Bill Hagerty, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2021–present) ^[23]
• Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present) ^[22]
• Rick Scott, U.S. senator from Florida (2019–present) ^[23]
• Tim Scott, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2013–present) ^[24]
• John Thune, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Majority Leader (2025–present) ^[25]
• Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present) ^[22]

U.S. representatives

• Bill Archer, former U.S. representative from Texas's 7th congressional district (1971–2001) ^[26]
• Henry Bonilla, former U.S. representative from Texas's 23rd congressional district (1993–2007) ^[26]
• Kevin Brady, former U.S. representative from Texas's 8th congressional district (1997–2023) ^[26]
• Michael Burgess, former U.S. representative from Texas's 26th congressional district (2003–2025) ^[26]
• Quico Canseco, former U.S. representative from Texas's 23rd congressional district (2011–2013) ^[26]
• Mike Conaway, former U.S. representative from Texas's 11th congressional district (2005–2021) ^[26]
• John Culberson, former U.S. representative from Texas's 7th congressional district (2001–2019) ^[26]
• Tom DeLay, former House Majority Leader (2003–2005) from Texas's 22nd congressional district (1985–2006) ^[26]
• Jake Ellzey, U.S. representative from Texas's 6th congressional district (2021–present) ^[27]
• Bill Flores, former U.S. representative from Texas's 17th congressional district (2011–2021) ^[26]
• Jeb Hensarling, former U.S. representative from Texas's 5th congressional district (2003–2019) ^[26]
• French Hill, U.S. representative from Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2015–present) ^[22]
• Kenny Marchant, former U.S. representative from Texas's 24th congressional district (2005–2021) ^[26]
• Pete Olson, former U.S. representative from Texas's 22nd congressional district (2009–2021) ^[26]
• Ted Poe, former U.S. representative from Texas's 2nd congressional district (2005–2019) ^[26]
• Lamar Smith, former U.S. representative from Texas's 21st congressional district (1987–2019) ^[26]
• Mac Thornberry, former U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (1995–2019) ^[26]

Labor unions

• National Border Patrol Council ^[23]

Organizations

• AIPAC ^[28]
• National Republican Senatorial Committee ^[29]
• Republican Jewish Coalition ^[30]
• Texas Alliance for Life PAC ^[31]

Ken Paxton

U.S. representatives

• Lance Gooden, U.S. representative from Texas's 5th congressional district (2019–present) ^[29]
• Troy Nehls, U.S. representative from Texas's 22nd congressional district (2021–present) ^[29]

State legislators

• Matt Rinaldi, former state representative from the 115th district (2015–2019) and former chair of the Texas Republican Party (2021–2024) ^[32]

Organizations

• Gun Owners of America ^[33]

Individuals

• John Rich, singer ^[24]

Declined to endorse

U.S. senators

• Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present) ^[23]

U.S. representatives

• Brian Babin, U.S. representative from Texas's 36th congressional district (2015–present) ^[22]
• Keith Self, U.S. representative from Texas's 3rd congressional district (2023–present) ^[22]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
John Cornyn (R)	$8,046,983	$2,773,090	$5,907,354
Barrett McNabb (R)	$215,163	$36,392	$178,771
Ken Paxton (R)	$2,908,591	$391,140	$2,517,451
Source: Federal Election Commission [34]

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	John Cornyn	Ken Paxton	Other/Undecided [a]	Margin
Decision Desk HQ [35]	January 4 – August 29, 2025	September 13, 2025	34.2%	43.7%	22.1%	Paxton +9.5%
RealClearPolitics [36]	May 11 – August 12, 2025	September 13, 2025	32.7%	36.7%	30.6%	Paxton +4.0%
Average			33.5%	40.2%	26.4%	Paxton +6.7%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Ken Paxton	Other	Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R) [37] [A]	September 20–22, 2025	– (V)	± 3.6%	39%	39%	–	22%
Texas Public Opinion Research [38]	August 27–29, 2025	320 (RV)	–	32%	26%	13% [c]	29%
co/efficient (R) [39]	August 25–27, 2025	818 (LV)	± 3.4%	36%	39%	–	25%
Echelon Insights [40]	August 21–24, 2025	515 (LV)	± 4.5%	37%	42%	–	21%
Emerson College [41]	August 11–12, 2025	491 (RV)	± 4.4%	30%	29%	5% [d]	36%
Texas Southern University [42]	August 6–12, 2025	1,500 (LV)	± 2.5%	39%	44%	–	17%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [43] [44] [B]	June 17–22, 2025	806 (LV)	± 3.5%	38%	57%	–	5%
UT Tyler [45]	May 28 – June 7, 2025	538 (RV)	–	34%	44%	–	22%
Stratus Intelligence (R) [46] [47] [C]	June 6–8, 2025	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	33%	49%	–	18%
UpONE Insights (R) [48] [49] [D]	May 27–28, 2025	600 (V)	± 4.0%	28%	50%	–	21%
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	34%	43%	–	23%
Quantus Insights (R) [51] [52] [E]	May 11–13, 2025	600 (RV)	± 4.4%	39%	52%	–	9%
American Opportunity Alliance (R) [53] [54]	April 29 – May 1, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	35%	52%	–	13%
The Tarrance Group (R) [55] [F]	April 27 – May 1, 2025	–	–	40%	56%	–	–
Internal Republican Party poll [56]	Mid–April 2025	605 (V)	–	33%	50%	–	17%
Lake Research Partners (D)/ Slingshot Strategies (D) [57] [G]	March 7–10, 2025	– (RV)	–	27%	38%	19% [e]	16%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [58]	January 28 – February 2, 2025	– (V)	–	28%	53%	–	19%
Victory Insights (R) [59]	January 4–6, 2025	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	34%	42%	–	25%
CWS Research (R) [60] [H]	July 9–10, 2022	1,918 (RV)	± 2.2%	31%	51%	–	18%

Hypothetical polling

John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Ken Paxton	Wesley Hunt	Undecided
Ragnar Research Partners (R) [37] [A]	September 20–22, 2025	– (V)	± 3.6%	32%	31%	17%	20%
Stratus Intelligence (R) [61] [I]	September 14–16, 2025	842 (V)	–	28%	38%	23%	11%
				–	38%	39%	23%
				37%	–	46%	17%
Texas Southern University [42]	August 6–12, 2025	1,500 (LV)	± 2.5%	30%	35%	22%	13%
G1 Research [62]	Late June 2025	–	–	28%	41%	17%	14%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [43] [44] [B]	June 17–22, 2025	806 (LV)	± 3.5%	32%	49%	13%	7%
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	27%	34%	15%	24%
				–	45%	25%	30%
				39%	–	31%	30%
Quantus Insights (R) [51] [52] [E]	May 11–13, 2025	600 (RV)	± 4.4%	38%	46%	16%	–
American Opportunity Alliance (R) [53] [54]	April 29 – May 1, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	27%	43%	14%	16%
The Tarrance Group (R) [55] [F]	April 27 – May 1, 2025	–	–	34%	44%	19%	–

John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Ronny Jackson	Chip Roy	Undecided
CWS Research (R) [63] [H]	October 19–23, 2022	823 (RV)	± 3.4%	35%	14%	18%	33%

John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Someone Else	Undecided
Victory Insights (R) [59]	January 4–6, 2025	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	35%	40%	25%

Democratic primary

Background

Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups. ^{[64] [65] [66] [67]}

Candidates

Declared

• Colin Allred, former U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024 ^[68]
• Emily Morgul, administrative assistant ^[69]
• Michael Swanson, waiter ^[69]
• James Talarico, state representative from the 50th district (2018–present) ^[70]
• Terry Virts, retired United States Air Force pilot and NASA astronaut ^[71]

Publicly expressed interest

• Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from Texas's 20th congressional district (2013–present) ^[72]
• Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2013–2019), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for president in 2020, and nominee for governor in 2022 ^[73]
• Jasmine Crockett, U.S. representative from Texas’s 30th congressional district (2023–present) ^[74]

Potential

• Ron Nirenberg, former Mayor of San Antonio (2017–2025) ^[75]

Declined

• Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election) ^[76]
• Clay Jenkins, Dallas County Judge ^[f] (2011–present) ^[77]
• Marc Veasey, U.S. representative from Texas's 33rd congressional district (2013–present) ^[78] (endorsed Allred) ^[79]

Endorsements

Colin Allred

U.S. Representatives

• Sanford Bishop, GA-02 (1993–present) ^[79]
• Yvette Clarke, NY-09 (2007–present) ^[79]
• Steven Horsford, NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present) ^[79]
• Gregory Meeks, NY-05 (1998–present) ^[79]
• Joe Neguse, CO-02 (2019–present) ^[79]
• Lauren Underwood, IL-14 (2019–present) ^[79]
• Marc Veasey, TX-33 (2013–present) ^[79]

State legislators

• Alma Allen, state representative from the 131st district (2005–present) ^[80]
• Rhetta Bowers, state representative from the 113th district (2019–present) ^[81]
• Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, state representative from the 120th district (2017–present) ^[80]
• Toni Rose, state representative from the 110th district (2023–present) ^[80]
• Venton Jones, state representative from the 100th district (2023–present) ^[80]

James Talarico

Statewide officials

• Staci Childs, Texas State Board of Education member (2023–present) ^[81]

State legislators

• Sheryl Cole, state representative from the 46th district (2019–present) ^[81]
• Lauren Ashley Simmons, state representative from the 146th district (2025–present) ^[81]

Organizations

• No Dem Left Behind ^[82]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Michael Swanson (D)	$2,504	$1,330	$1,174
Terry Virts (D)	$201,255	$115,653	$85,602
Source: Federal Election Commission [34]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Colin Allred	Emily Morgul	James Talarico	Michael Swanson	Terry Virts	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) [83]	September 3–4, 2025	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	40%	–	32%	–	–	27%
Emerson College [41]	August 11–12, 2025	370 (RV)	± 5.1%	58%	4%	–	3%	1%	34%
Texas Southern University [42]	August 6–12, 2025	1,500 (LV)	± 2.5%	50%	–	43%	–	–	7%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Colin Allred	James Talarico	Joaquin Castro	Jasmine Crockett	Beto O'Rourke	Other	Undecided
Texas Public Opinion Research [38]	August 27–29, 2025	270 (RV)	–	13%	7%	4%	26%	27%	5% [g]	18%
Texas Southern University [42]	August 6–12, 2025	1,500 (LV)	± 2.5%	38%	–	–	–	58%	–	4%
				52%	–	–	41%	–	–	7%
NRSC (R) [84]	July 4–7, 2025	566 (LV)	± 3.0%	20%	–	13%	35%	13%	–	18%

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

• Robert Smith (Green), assistant professor ^[85]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Inside Elections [86]	Likely R	August 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [87]	Likely R	August 18, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [88]	Likely R	August 12, 2025
Race To The WH [89]	Tilt R	September 4, 2025

Polling

John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	John Cornyn (R)	Colin Allred (D)	Undecided
Emerson College [41]	August 11–12, 2025	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	38%	17%
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	44%	8%

Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton (R)	Colin Allred (D)	Undecided
GBAO (D) [90] [J]	August 13–18, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	49%	4%
				49%	50% [h]	–
Emerson College [41]	August 11–12, 2025	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	41%	13%
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	46%	6%
Brad Parscale (R) [56]	Mid–April 2025	>1,000 (LV)	–	37%	52%	11%

Hypothetical polling

Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Wesley Hunt (R)	Colin Allred (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	47%	44%	9%

John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	John Cornyn (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	49%	43%	8%

Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	49%	45%	6%

Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Wesley Hunt (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	49%	43%	8%

John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	John Cornyn (R)	Joaquin Castro (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	41%	11%

Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton (R)	Joaquin Castro (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	47%	44%	9%

Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Wesley Hunt (R)	Joaquin Castro (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [50]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	42%	10%

John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	John Cornyn (R)	Generic Democrat	Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R) [46] [47] [C]	June 6–8, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	35%	23%

Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton (R)	Generic Democrat	Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R) [46] [47] [C]	June 6–8, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	39%	42%	19%

Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [b]	Margin of error	Generic Republican	Generic Democrat	Other	Undecided
Texas Public Opinion Research [38]	August 27–29, 2025	843 (RV)	± 4.6%	48%	43%	9% [i]	–

Notes

1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. "Would not vote in that race" with 9%; "Prefer not to answer" with 4%
4. "Someone else" with 5%
5. Would not Vote with 8%; Other with 7%; Refused with 4%
6. County executive
7. "Would not vote in that race" with 5%
8. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
9. "Someone else" with 9%

Partisan clients

1. Poll commissioned by One Nation, which supports Cornyn
2. Poll conducted by a Paxton-allied super PAC.
3. Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project
4. Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute
5. Poll sponsored by Trending Politics, a conservative news website
6. Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn
7. Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research
8. Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC
9. Poll commissioned by a pro-Hunt group
10. Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign

References

1. Gans, Jared (February 9, 2025). "7 competitive primaries to watch in 2026". The Hill. Archived from the original on February 10, 2025. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
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3. McLaughlin, Seth. "Sen. Cornyn's reelection bid faces more warning signs in new Senate primary poll". The Washington Times. Retrieved June 5, 2025.
4. Goodman, J. David (May 30, 2025). "Cornyn Calls Primary Fight Against Ken Paxton a 'Test of Character'". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved June 29, 2025.
5. Jacobs, Ben (June 7, 2025). "'Trump movement' turns on Cornyn, poll finds". POLITICO. Retrieved June 7, 2025.
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11. Gans, Jared (May 12, 2025). "Cornyn losing to primary rival in poll from top GOP super PAC". The Hill . Retrieved May 14, 2025.
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14. Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 - Online Guide to Texas Elections, Candidates & Politics". politics1.com.
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17. Scherer, Jasper (April 8, 2025). "Texas AG Ken Paxton officially joins U.S. Senate race challenging John Cornyn". The Texas Tribune . Retrieved April 8, 2025.
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19. Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (June 26, 2025). "Morning Digest: Scott Brown is trying another comeback". The Downballot. Retrieved June 27, 2025.
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22. Mutnick, Ally; Soellner, Mica (June 27, 2025). "John who? Texas GOP skirts Cornyn endorsement". Punchbowl News . Retrieved June 27, 2025.
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External links

Official campaign websites

• Virgil Bierschwale (R) for Senate
• John Cornyn (R) for Senate
• Alexander Duncan (R) for Senate
• Rennie Mann (R) for Senate
• Ken Paxton (R) for Senate
• Robert Smith (G) for Senate
• Colin Allred (D) for Senate
• James Talarico (D) for Senate
• Terry Virts (D) for Senate