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| Elections in Texas |
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The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election held on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primaries. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a fifth term in office. Cornyn is facing a primary challenge from Representative Wesley Hunt and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1990, and an incumbent senator has not lost a primary since 1970.
Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges. [1] [2] [3] [4]
The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction. [1] Republican primary voters in Texas have been increasingly divided as the insurgent hard-right faction has been steadily gaining ground in recent years and has ousted more traditional GOP elected officials. Polling has found clear evidence of the divide and that Paxton has a massive lead among "Trump Movement" voters while Cornyn leads among "Traditional Republicans" who make up a much smaller chunk of the electorate. [5] Trump had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO for backing the gun safety bill which Paxton has highlighted in ads. [6] [7] President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his. [8] Trump's endorsement is considered to be critical in deciding the winner of the primary. [9] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, has also avoided picking a side in the primary, having previously endorsed Cornyn in the last primary of 2020. [10]
Paxton has led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race. Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents. [11] Cornyn told the Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would be willing to step aside if a candidate who could defeat Paxton emerged. However, Cornyn retracted this statement days later, saying he would not drop out of the race. [12]
Italics indicate withdrawn candidate
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Virgil Bierschwale (R) | $9,780 | $2,383 | $7,398 | |
| John Cornyn (R) | $8,957,115 | $3,576,091 | $6,014,485 | |
| Wesley Hunt (R) | $1,371,508 | $2,343,552 | $1,515,133 | |
| Gurlez Khan (R) | $3,100 | $3,647 | $0 | |
| Ken Paxton (R) | $4,204,850 | $1,022,073 | $3,182,777 | |
| Tony Schmoker (R) | $2,500 | $3,107 | $0 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [38] | ||||
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | John Cornyn | Wesley Hunt | Ken Paxton | Other/Undecided [a] | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics [39] | May 11 – October 1, 2025 | October 9, 2025 | 33.7% | 19.0% | 36.3% | 11.0% | Paxton +2.6% |
| Decision Desk HQ [40] | through October 1, 2025 | October 30, 2025 | 31.2% | 18.9% | 33.8% | 16.1% | Paxton +2.6% |
| Average | 32.45% | 18.95% | 35.05% | 13.55% | Paxton +2.6% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn | Wesley Hunt | Ken Paxton | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | November 4–6, 2025 | 811 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 26% | 34% | 13% |
| Harper Polling (R) [42] [B] | October 28–30, 2025 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% |
| Hunt Research (R) [27] [43] | October 6–10, 2025 | 1,097 (LV) | ± 2.96% | 24% | 19% | 28% | 29% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | October 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 31% | 24% | 34% | 11% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 33% | 22% | 34% | 11% |
| Deep Root Analytics (R) [45] [C] | September 22–28, 2025 | 1,142 (LV) | – | 33% | 21% | 28% | 18% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 492 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 29% | 14% | 31% | 26% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) [47] [D] | September 20–22, 2025 | – (V) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 17% | 31% | 20% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [48] [A] | September 14–16, 2025 | 842 (V) | – | 28% | 23% | 38% | 11% |
| 38% | 23% | 39% | – | ||||
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | August 24–26, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 23% | 38% | 11% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | August 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 29% | 23% | 37% | 11% |
| Texas Southern University [49] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 30% | 22% | 35% | 13% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | July 16–18, 2025 | – (V) | – | 32% | 15% | 38% | 15% |
| G1 Research [50] | Late June 2025 | – | – | 28% | 17% | 41% | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | June 22–23, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 17% | 41% | 14% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) [51] [52] [E] | June 17–22, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 13% | 49% | 7% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | June 8–10, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 12% | 47% | 13% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 27% | 15% | 34% | 24% |
| Quantus Insights (R) [54] [55] [F] | May 11–13, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 16% | 46% | – |
| American Opportunity Alliance (R) [56] [57] | April 29 – May 1, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 27% | 14% | 43% | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | April 29–30, 2025 | – (V) | – | 27% | 18% | 40% | 15% |
| The Tarrance Group (R) [58] [G] | April 27 – May 1, 2025 | – | – | 34% | 19% | 44% | – |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | April 15–17, 2025 | – (V) | – | 26% | 18% | 42% | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | March 23–25, 2025 | – (V) | – | 26% | 13% | 46% | 15% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn | Ken Paxton | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | November 4–6, 2025 | 811 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 46% | – | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | October 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 493 (RV) | – | 39% | 37% | – | 23% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R) [47] [D] | September 20–22, 2025 | – (V) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 39% | – | 22% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | September 14–16, 2025 | – (V) | – | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research [59] | August 27–29, 2025 | 320 (RV) | – | 32% | 26% | 13% [c] | 29% |
| co/efficient (R) [60] | August 25–27, 2025 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 36% | 39% | – | 25% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | August 24–26, 2025 | – (V) | – | 41% | 48% | – | 11% |
| Echelon Insights [61] | August 21–24, 2025 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37% | 42% | – | 21% |
| Emerson College [62] | August 11–12, 2025 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 30% | 29% | 5% [d] | 36% |
| Texas Southern University [49] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 44% | – | 17% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | August 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 42% | 45% | – | 13% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | July 16–18, 2025 | – (V) | – | 36% | 47% | – | 17% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R) [51] [52] [E] | June 17–22, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 57% | – | 5% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | June 8–10, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 49% | – | 18% |
| UT Tyler [63] | May 28 – June 7, 2025 | 538 (RV) | – | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [64] [65] [H] | June 6–8, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 49% | – | 18% |
| UpONE Insights (R) [66] [67] [I] | May 27–28, 2025 | 600 (V) | ± 4.0% | 28% | 50% | – | 21% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 43% | – | 23% |
| Quantus Insights (R) [54] [55] [F] | May 11–13, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
| American Opportunity Alliance (R) [56] [57] | April 29 – May 1, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R) [58] [G] | April 27 – May 1, 2025 | – | – | 40% | 56% | – | – |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | April 29–30, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 48% | – | 19% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | April 15–17, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 50% | – | 17% |
| Internal Republican Party poll [68] | Mid–April 2025 | 605 (V) | – | 33% | 50% | – | 17% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [41] [A] | March 23–25, 2025 | – (V) | – | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)/ Slingshot Strategies (D) [69] [J] | March 7–10, 2025 | – (RV) | – | 27% | 38% | 19% [e] | 16% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [70] | January 28 – February 2, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 53% | – | 19% |
| Victory Insights (R) [71] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 42% | – | 25% |
| CWS Research (R) [72] [K] | July 9–10, 2022 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 31% | 51% | – | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn | Wesley Hunt | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 34% | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [48] [A] | September 14–16, 2025 | 842 (V) | – | 37% | 46% | 17% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 39% | 31% | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton | Wesley Hunt | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 25% | 30% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn | Ronny Jackson | Chip Roy | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS Research (R) [73] [K] | October 19–23, 2022 | 823 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 14% | 18% | 33% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn | Someone Else | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights (R) [71] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups. [74] [75] [76] [77]
State legislators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Michael Swanson (D) | $6,991 | $6,991 | $0 |
| James Talarico (D) | $6,268,610 | $1,309,971 | $4,958,638 |
| Colin Allred (D) | $4,933,179 | $3,142,537 | $1,790,641 |
| Terry Virts (D) | $473,099 | $320,722 | $152,377 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission [38] | |||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Colin Allred | Emily Morgul | James Talarico | Michael Swanson | Terry Virts | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D) [93] [L] | October 23–29, 2025 | 836 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | – | 48% | – | – | 9% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 478 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | – | 42% | – | – | 12% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 377 (RV) | – | 42% | – | 30% | – | – | 28% [h] |
| Public Policy Polling (D) [94] | September 3–4, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | – | 32% | – | – | 27% |
| Emerson College [62] | August 11–12, 2025 | 370 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 58% | 4% | – | 3% | 1% | 34% |
| Texas Southern University [49] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 50% | – | 43% | – | – | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Colin Allred | James Talarico | Joaquin Castro | Jasmine Crockett | Beto O'Rourke | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 478 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 13% | 25% | – | 31% | 25% | – | 6% |
| 34% | – | – | 57% | – | – | 9% | ||||
| 38% | – | – | – | 55% | – | 7% | ||||
| – | – | – | 51% | 41% | – | 8% | ||||
| – | 34% | – | 52% | – | – | 14% | ||||
| – | 39% | – | – | 54% | – | 7% | ||||
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 377 (RV) | – | 25% | – | 13% | 29% | 31% | 2% [i] | – |
| Texas Public Opinion Research [59] | August 27–29, 2025 | 270 (RV) | – | 13% | 7% | 4% | 26% | 27% | 5% [j] | 18% |
| Texas Southern University [49] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | – | – | – | 58% | – | 4% |
| 52% | – | – | 41% | – | – | 7% | ||||
| NRSC (R) [95] | July 4–7, 2025 | 566 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | – | 13% | 35% | 13% | – | 18% |
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections [97] | Likely R | August 12, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report [98] | Likely R | October 14, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball [99] | Likely R | August 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH [100] | Tilt R | October 27, 2025 |
John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | John Cornyn (R) | Colin Allred (D) | Other/ | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics [101] | August 11 – October 1, 2025 | November 13, 2025 | 46.5% | 42.0% | 11.5% | Cornyn +4.5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn (R) | Colin Allred (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 37% | 7% [l] | 13% |
| Emerson College [62] | August 11–12, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | – | 17% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Ken Paxton (R) | Colin Allred (D) | Other/ | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics [102] | August 11 – October 1, 2025 | November 13, 2025 | 47.0% | 44.0% | 9.0% | Paxton +3.0% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | Colin Allred (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 41% | 8% [n] | 13% |
| GBAO (D) [103] [M] | August 13–18, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | – | 4% |
| 49% | 50% [o] | – | – | ||||
| Emerson College [62] | August 11–12, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Brad Parscale (R) [68] | Mid–April 2025 | >1,000 (LV) | – | 37% | 52% | – | 11% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Wesley Hunt (R) | Colin Allred (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 6% [p] | 19% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
John Cornyn vs. James Talarico
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn (R) | James Talarico (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 35% | 7% [l] | 17% |
Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | James Talarico (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 8% [n] | 17% |
Wesley Hunt vs. James Talarico
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Wesley Hunt (R) | James Talarico (D) | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 50% | 44% | – | 6% |
| UT Tyler [46] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 37% | 6% [p] | 21% |
John Cornyn vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn (R) | Jasmine Crockett (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
Ken Paxton vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | Jasmine Crockett (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 47% | 2% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Wesley Hunt (R) | Jasmine Crockett (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn (R) | Beto O'Rourke (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | Beto O'Rourke (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Wesley Hunt (R) | Beto O'Rourke (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University [44] | September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn (R) | Joaquin Castro (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | Joaquin Castro (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Wesley Hunt (R) | Joaquin Castro (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University [53] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | John Cornyn (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [64] [65] [H] | June 6–8, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 35% | 23% |
Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Ken Paxton (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Intelligence (R) [64] [65] [H] | June 6–8, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [b] | Margin of error | Generic Republican | Generic Democrat | Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Public Opinion Research [59] | August 27–29, 2025 | 843 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 43% | 9% [q] | – |
Partisan clients
In Texas, where multiple candidates are seeking the Republican nomination, Ricketts offered an unequivocal endorsement of Senator John Cornyn. "I think our best chance to win that state is with John Cornyn," he stated. "If you don't have John Cornyn there, there's a good chance Democrats can win that seat. I'm 100 percent behind Cornyn. I endorsed him. I hope he wins the primary and that's our best path to winning Texas."