2026 United States Senate election in Texas

For related races, see 2026 United States Senate elections.

2026 United States Senate election in Texas

←  2020 November 3, 2026 2032 →

Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator John Cornyn Republican

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a fifth term in office. Cornyn is facing a primary challenge from Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1990. An incumbent senator has not lost a primary since 2017, in Alabama, and has not happened in Texas since 1970.

Republican primary

Background

Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges. ^{[1] [2] [3] [4]}

The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party’s establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction. ^[1] Republican primary voters in Texas have been increasingly divided as the insurgent hard-right faction has been steadily gaining ground in recent years and has ousted more traditional GOP elected officials. Polling has found clear evidence of the divide and that Paxton has a massive lead among "Trump Movement" voters while Cornyn leads among "Traditional Republicans" who make up a much smaller chunk of the electorate. ^[5] Trump had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO for backing the gun safety bill which Paxton has highlighted in ads. ^{[6] [7]} President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his. ^[8] Trump's endorsement is considered to be critical in deciding the winner of the primary. ^[9] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, has also avoided picking a side in the primary, having previously endorsed Cornyn in the last primary of 2020. ^[10]

Campaign

Paxton has led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race. Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents. ^[11] Cornyn told the Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would be willing to step aside if a candidate who could defeat Paxton emerged. However, Cornyn retracted this statement days later, saying he would not drop out of the race. ^[12]

Candidates

Declared

• Virgil Bierschwale, software developer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 ^{[13] [14]}
• John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present) ^[15]
• Alexander Duncan, police officer ^{[13] [14]}
• Gulrez Khan, home healthcare company owner, candidate for Texas's 32nd congressional district in 2024, and candidate for mayor of Lubbock in 2022 ^{[13] [14]}
• Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board ^[16]
• Barrett McNabb, chiropractic business owner ^[13]
• Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present) ^[17]
• Tony Schmoker, realtor ^{[13] [14]}
• Leo Wyatt ^{[13] [14]}

Publicly expressed interest

• Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present) ^{[18] [19]}

Potential

• Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present) ^[20]
• Beth Van Duyne, U.S. representative from Texas's 24th congressional district (2021–present) ^[21]

Endorsements

John Cornyn

Executive branch officials

• Rick Perry, former Secretary of Energy (2017–2019) and former governor of Texas (2000–2015) ^[22]

U.S. senators

• John Barrasso, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present), Senate Majority Whip (2025–present) ^[23]
• Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present) ^[23]
• Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present) ^[23]
• Bill Hagerty, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2021–present) ^[24]
• Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky (2011–present) ^[23]
• Rick Scott, U.S. senator from Florida (2019–present) ^[24]
• Tim Scott, U.S. senator from South Carolina (2013–present) ^[25]
• John Thune, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Majority Leader (2025–present) ^[26]
• Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present) ^[23]

U.S. representatives

• Jake Ellzey, U.S. representative from Texas's 6th congressional district (2021–present) ^[27]
• French Hill, U.S. representative from Arkansas's 2nd congressional district (2015–present) ^[23]

Organizations

• AIPAC ^[28]
• National Border Patrol Council ^[24]
• National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) ^[29]
• Republican Jewish Coalition ^[30]
• Texas Alliance for Life PAC ^[31]

Ken Paxton

U.S. representatives

• Lance Gooden, U.S. representative from Texas's 5th congressional district (2019–present) ^[29]
• Troy Nehls, U.S. representative from Texas's 22nd congressional district (2021–present) ^[29]

State legislators

• Matt Rinaldi, former state representative from the 115th district (2015–2019) and former chair of the Texas Republican Party (2021–2024) ^[32]

Organizations

• Gun Owners of America ^[33]

Individuals

• John Rich, singer ^[25]

Declined to endorse

U.S. senators

• Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present) ^[24]

U.S. representatives

• Brian Babin, U.S. representative from Texas's 36th congressional district (2015–present) ^[23]
• Keith Self, U.S. representative from Texas's 3rd congressional district (2023–present) ^[23]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
John Cornyn (R)	$8,046,983	$2,773,090	$5,907,354
Barrett McNabb (R)	$215,163	$36,392	$178,771
Ken Paxton (R)	$2,908,591	$391,140	$2,517,451
Source: Federal Election Commission [34]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Ken Paxton	Other	Undecided
co/efficient (R) [35]	August 25–27, 2025	818 (LV)	± 3.4%	36%	39%	–	25%
Echelon Insights [36]	August 21–24, 2025	515 (LV)	± 4.5%	37%	42%	–	21%
Emerson College [37]	August 11–12, 2025	491 (RV)	± 4.4%	30%	29%	5% [b]	36%
Texas Southern University [38]	August 6–12, 2025	1,500 (LV)	± 2.5%	39%	44%	–	17%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [39] [40] [A]	June 17–22, 2025	806 (LV)	± 3.5%	38%	57%	–	5%
UT Tyler [41]	May 28 – June 7, 2025	538 (RV)	–	34%	44%	–	22%
Stratus Intelligence (R) [42] [43] [B]	June 6–8, 2025	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	33%	49%	–	18%
UpONE Insights (R) [44] [45] [C]	May 27–28, 2025	600 (V)	± 4.0%	28%	50%	–	21%
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	34%	43%	–	23%
Quantus Insights (R) [47] [48] [D]	May 11–13, 2025	600 (RV)	± 4.4%	39%	52%	–	9%
American Opportunity Alliance (R) [49] [50]	April 29 – May 1, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	35%	52%	–	13%
The Tarrance Group (R) [51] [E]	April 27 – May 1, 2025	–	–	40%	56%	–
Internal Republican Party poll [52]	Mid–April 2025	605 (V)	–	33%	50%	–	17%
Lake Research Partners (D)/ Slingshot Strategies (D) [53] [F]	March 7–10, 2025	– (RV)	–	27%	38%	19% [c]	16%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) [54]	January 28 – February 2, 2025	– (V)	–	28%	53%	–	19%
Victory Insights (R) [55]	January 4–6, 2025	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	34%	42%	–	25%
CWS Research (R) [56] [G]	July 9–10, 2022	1,918 (RV)	± 2.2%	31%	51%	–	18%

Hypothetical polling

John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Ken Paxton	Wesley Hunt	Undecided
Texas Southern University [38]	August 6–12, 2025	1,500 (LV)	± 2.5%	30%	35%	22%	13%
G1 Research [57]	Late June 2025	–	–	28%	41%	17%	14%
Pulse Decision Science (R) [39] [40] [A]	June 17–22, 2025	806 (LV)	± 3.5%	32%	49%	13%	7%
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	27%	34%	15%	24%
Quantus Insights (R) [47] [48] [D]	May 11–13, 2025	600 (RV)	± 4.4%	38%	46%	16%	–
American Opportunity Alliance (R) [49] [50]	April 29 – May 1, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	27%	43%	14%	16%
The Tarrance Group (R) [51] [E]	April 27 – May 1, 2025	–	–	34%	44%	19%	–

John Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Wesley Hunt	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	510 (LV)	± 4.3%	39%	31%	30%

John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Ronny Jackson	Chip Roy	Undecided
CWS Research (R) [58] [G]	October 19–23, 2022	823 (RV)	± 3.4%	35%	14%	18%	33%

John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Someone Else	Undecided
Victory Insights (R) [55]	January 4–6, 2025	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	35%	40%	25%

Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton	Wesley Hunt	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	510 (RV)	± 4.3%	45%	25%	30%

Democratic primary

Background

Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups. ^{[59] [60] [61] [62]}

Candidates

Declared

• Colin Allred, former U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024 ^[63]
• Emily Morgul, administrative assistant ^[64]
• Michael Swanson, waiter ^[64]
• Terry Virts, media personality and retired astronaut ^[65]

Announcement pending

• James Talarico, state representative (2018–present) (announcement expected September 9) ^[66]

Publicly expressed interest

• Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from Texas's 20th congressional district (2013–present) ^[67]
• Beto O'Rourke, former U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2013–2019), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018, candidate for president in 2020, and nominee for governor in 2022 ^[68]

Potential

• Ron Nirenberg, former Mayor of San Antonio (2017–2025) ^[69]

Declined

• Jasmine Crockett, U.S. representative from Texas’s 30th congressional district (2023–present) ^[70]
• Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election) ^[71]
• Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2024 (running for re-election) ^{[72] [ better source needed ]}
• Clay Jenkins, Dallas County Judge ^[d] (2011–present) ^[73]
• Marc Veasey, U.S. representative from Texas's 33rd congressional district (2013–present) ^[74]

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2025
Candidate	Raised	Spent	Cash on hand
Michael Swanson (D)	$2,504	$1,330	$1,174
Terry Virts (D)	$201,255	$115,653	$85,602
Source: Federal Election Commission [34]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Colin Allred	Emily Morgul	Michael Swanson	Terry Virts	Undecided
Emerson College [37]	August 11–12, 2025	370 (RV)	± 5.1%	58%	4%	3%	1%	34%

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Colin Allred	Joaquin Castro	James Talarico	Jasmine Crockett	Beto O'Rourke	Undecided
Texas Southern University [38]	August 6–12, 2025	1,500 (LV)	± 2.5%	38%	–	–	–	58%	4%
				50%	–	43%	–	–	7%
				52%	41%	–	–	–	7%
NRSC (R) [75]	July 4–7, 2025	566 (LV)	± 3.0%	20%	13%	–	35%	13%	18%

Third-party and independent candidates

Candidates

Declared

• Robert Smith (Green), assistant professor ^[76]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Inside Elections [77]	Likely R	August 12, 2025
The Cook Political Report [78]	Likely R	August 18, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [79]	Likely R	August 12, 2025
Race To The WH [80]	Tilt R	September 4, 2025

Polling

John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn (R)	Colin Allred (D)	Undecided
Emerson College [37]	August 11–12, 2025	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	45%	38%	17%
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	44%	8%

Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton (R)	Colin Allred (D)	Undecided
GBAO (D) [81] [H]	August 13–18, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	49%	4%
				49%	50% [e]	–
Emerson College [37]	August 11–12, 2025	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	46%	41%	13%
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	46%	6%
Brad Parscale (R) [52]	Mid–April 2025	>1,000 (LV)	–	37%	52%	11%

Hypothetical polling

Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Wesley Hunt (R)	Colin Allred (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	47%	44%	9%

John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	49%	43%	8%

Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	49%	45%	6%

Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Wesley Hunt (R)	Beto O'Rourke (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	49%	43%	8%

John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn (R)	Joaquin Castro (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	41%	11%

Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton (R)	Joaquin Castro (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	47%	44%	9%

Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Wesley Hunt (R)	Joaquin Castro (D)	Undecided
YouGov/Texas Southern University [46]	May 9–19, 2025	1,200 (RV)	± 2.8%	48%	42%	10%

John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn (R)	Generic Democrat	Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R) [42] [43] [B]	June 6–8, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	35%	23%

Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Ken Paxton (R)	Generic Democrat	Undecided
Stratus Intelligence (R) [42] [43] [B]	June 6–8, 2025	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	39%	42%	19%

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
2. "Someone else" with 5%
3. Would not Vote with 8%; Other with 7%; Refused with 4%
4. County executive
5. With voters who lean towards a given candidate

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted by a Paxton-allied super PAC.
2. Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project
3. Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute
4. Poll sponsored by Trending Politics, a conservative news website
5. Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn
6. Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research
7. Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC
8. Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign

References

1. Gans, Jared (February 9, 2025). "7 competitive primaries to watch in 2026". The Hill. Archived from the original on February 10, 2025. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
2. Jacobs, Ben (May 14, 2025). "The Republican Trainwreck of the 2026 Election Cycle". POLITICO. Retrieved May 15, 2025.
3. McLaughlin, Seth. "Sen. Cornyn's reelection bid faces more warning signs in new Senate primary poll". The Washington Times. Retrieved June 5, 2025.
4. Goodman, J. David (May 30, 2025). "Cornyn Calls Primary Fight Against Ken Paxton a 'Test of Character'". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331 . Retrieved June 29, 2025.
5. Jacobs, Ben (June 7, 2025). "'Trump movement' turns on Cornyn, poll finds". POLITICO. Retrieved June 7, 2025.
6. Isenstadt, Alex (May 2, 2025). "Scoop: Pro-Paxton group courts Trump with anti-Cornyn ad". Axios. Retrieved May 2, 2025.
7. "What becomes of Republicans who cross King Donald?". The Economist. ISSN   0013-0613 . Retrieved July 8, 2025.
8. "Trump weighs in on Texas Senate race". wfaa.com. April 13, 2025. Retrieved April 14, 2025.
9. "There's a 'Nasty' Senate Primary Battle Brewing in Texas". NOTUS. April 25, 2025. Retrieved April 25, 2025.
10. Livingston, Abby; Svitek, Patrick (December 7, 2018). "Ted Cruz endorses John Cornyn for re-election". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved June 9, 2025.
11. Gans, Jared (May 12, 2025). "Cornyn losing to primary rival in poll from top GOP super PAC". The Hill . Retrieved May 14, 2025.
12. Doud, Justin (June 27, 2025). "U.S. Sen. John Cornyn rebukes report that he's considering dropping out of 2026 race". KUHT . Retrieved June 29, 2025.
13. Fullerton, Adam (July 1, 2025). "Who is Running for U.S. Senate in Texas?". KTBC . Retrieved July 24, 2025.
14. Gunzburger, Ron. "Politics1 - Online Guide to Texas Elections, Candidates & Politics". politics1.com.
15. Jeffers, Gromer Jr. (May 24, 2024). "U.S. Sen. John Cornyn commits to seeking reelection in 2026". The Dallas Morning News . Retrieved May 24, 2024.
16. Lewis, Jason; Fikes, Barry (October 16, 2024). "A Night with Rennie Mann: From Community Stories to U.S. Senate Candidacy". Coyote Nation (Podcast). Retrieved December 5, 2024– via Podbean.
17. Scherer, Jasper (April 8, 2025). "Texas AG Ken Paxton officially joins U.S. Senate race challenging John Cornyn". The Texas Tribune . Retrieved April 8, 2025.
18. Booker, Brakkton (March 3, 2025). "Black Republicans could stamp their mark on the midterms". Politico . Retrieved March 3, 2025. [Wesley Hunt] added himself to this list, pointing to the reported headwinds his state's senior Sen. John Cornyn faces next year — and the possibility of him opting to retire. Hunt did not rule out a Senate run under the right circumstances
19. Isenstadt, Alex (July 18, 2025). "Wesley Hunt leans into ugly Texas Senate race". Axios . Retrieved July 18, 2025.
20. Nir, David; Singer, Jeff (June 26, 2025). "Morning Digest: Scott Brown is trying another comeback". The Downballot. Retrieved June 27, 2025.
21. Balarajan, Brammi (April 8, 2025). "Texas AG Ken Paxton launches U.S. Senate bid seeking to oust John Cornyn". Chron.com . Retrieved July 20, 2025.
22. Perry, Rick (August 4, 2025). "Rick Perry: Why I am supporting John Cornyn in the U.S. Senate primary". Houston Chronicle . Retrieved August 5, 2025.
23. Mutnick, Ally; Soellner, Mica (June 27, 2025). "John who? Texas GOP skirts Cornyn endorsement". Punchbowl News . Retrieved June 27, 2025.
24. Sivak, David; Green, Lauren (April 9, 2025). "Cruz won't back Senate colleague Cornyn in preview of Texas primary divisions". Washington Examiner . Retrieved April 10, 2025.
25. Nitzberg, Alex (April 10, 2025). "John Cornyn scores Tim Scott endorsement, but John Rich calls Cornyn 'the Lindsey Graham of Texas'". Fox News . Retrieved April 10, 2025– via AOL.
26. "Thune endorses Cornyn ahead of what could be a thorny primary". Politico . March 26, 2025. Retrieved April 10, 2025.
27. "'The Least Liked Out of Everybody': Republicans Suggest Wesley Hunt Stay Out of the Texas Senate Race". NOTUS . July 25, 2025. Retrieved July 25, 2025.
28. "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
29. Friedman, Amanda (April 10, 2025). "Two Texas Republicans throw support behind Paxton in brewing Senate fight". Politico . Retrieved April 10, 2025.
30. Bushman, Eric (August 19, 2025). "Cornyn picks up more endorsements, narrows gap in recent polling". Audacy. Retrieved August 19, 2025.
31. Amy, O'Donnell (July 28, 2025). "Texas Alliance for Life Fed PAC Proudly Endorses Senator John Cornyn for Re-Election to U.S. Senate". Texas Alliance for Life. Retrieved August 4, 2025.
32. "Former Texas Republican Party Chair supports Texas AG Paxton in GOP primary". CBS News . April 11, 2025. Retrieved April 22, 2025.
33. "Gun Owners of America Endorses Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate". Gun Owners of America . May 21, 2025.
34. "2026 Election United States Senate – Texas". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission . Retrieved July 16, 2025.
35. "Texas Senate GOP Primary" (PDF). co/efficient. August 27, 2025. Retrieved September 2, 2025.
36. Ruffini, Patrick (August 26, 2025). "Texas Senate Primary Update" (PDF). Echelon Insights. Retrieved August 26, 2025.
37. "Texas 2026 Poll: Cornyn and Paxton in Dead Heat for GOP Senate Nomination". Emerson College Polling. August 15, 2025. Retrieved August 15, 2025.
38. McLaughlin, Seth (August 19, 2025). "Is Beto back? Poll shows O'Rourke leads Democratic Senate primary race in Texas". The Washington Times . Retrieved August 19, 2025.
39. Jacobs, Ben (June 26, 2025). "Cornyn trounced by Paxton in another poll". Politico. Retrieved June 26, 2025.
40. Maguire, Conor (June 24, 2025). "Texas Senate Primary". Pulse Decision Science. Retrieved July 9, 2025.
41. "UT Tyler – Topline Report of Texas Voters" (PDF). University of Texas at Tyler . June 24, 2025. Retrieved June 25, 2025.
42. Isenstadt, Alex (June 16, 2025). "The GOP's come to Jesus moment on Texas Senate race". Axios . Retrieved June 17, 2025.
43. @IAPolls2022 (June 17, 2025). "Texas Poll – Senate. Paxton: 49%, Cornyn: 33%. "If Trump endorses Cornyn" Paxton: 46%, Cornyn: 34% —— General Election: Cornyn (inc): 42%, Gen. Democrat: 35%. Gen. Democrat: 42%, Paxton: 39%. Stratus Intelligence for R Group – 6/6-8" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
44. Mutnick, Ally; Desiderio, Andrew (June 3, 2025). "Cornyn down big in new poll. New Tillis hires". Punchbowl News . Retrieved June 3, 2025.
45. Blizzard, Robert (June 3, 2025). "Texas GOP Primary Poll Data". UpONE Insights. Retrieved June 3, 2025– via Punchbowl News.
46. Adams, Michael O.; Jones, Mark P. (May 28, 2025). "Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center – 2026 Texas U.S. Senate Vote Intention, Support for ESAs and Property Tax Relief, & Pres. Trump's Job Performance" (PDF). Barbara Jordan – Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs . Retrieved May 28, 2025.
47. "Texas Senate Primary: Trouble at the Top". Quantus Insights. May 14, 2025. Retrieved May 14, 2025.
48. Corley, Jason (May 14, 2025). "Quantus Insights Texas Primary May 2025 – Crosstabs". Google Drive . Retrieved May 14, 2025.
49. Jacobs, Ben (June 7, 2025). "'Trump movement' turns on Cornyn, poll finds". Politico . Retrieved June 7, 2025.
50. "Key Findings from Recent Texas GOP Primary Survey". American Opportunity Alliance. May 21, 2025. Retrieved June 7, 2025– via Politico.
51. Mutnick, Ally (May 12, 2025). "SLF poll shows Cornyn getting creamed by Paxton". Punchbowl News . Retrieved May 12, 2025.
52. Wallace, Jeremy (April 30, 2025). "John Cornyn trailing Senate primary challenger Ken Paxton, says new internal polls". Houston Chronical . Retrieved May 1, 2025.
53. "Lake Research Partners & Slingshot Strategies – Texas Topline" (PDF). DocumentCloud . March 27, 2025. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
54. Bickerton, James (April 9, 2025). "Ken Paxton's Chances of Beating John Cornyn in Texas: Polls". Newsweek . Retrieved April 22, 2025.
55. Galbraith, Ben (January 8, 2025). "Texas Poll: Ken Paxton Leads John Cornyn for US Senate in 2026" (PDF). Victory Insights. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
56. "Defend Texas Liberty PAC 2022 Republican Primary & Runoff Voters July Issue Poll". Google Drive. July 12, 2022. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
57. "Wesley Hunt tests waters of a Senate bid, setting up possible heavyweight primary with Cornyn and Paxton". Texas Tribune . August 5, 2025. Retrieved August 5, 2025.
58. "Defend Texas Liberty PAC 2022 Republican Primary & Runoff Voters October Issue Poll" (PDF). Texas Scorecard . October 25, 2022. Retrieved April 8, 2025.
59. "State of Texas: Republicans announce campaigns, Democrats plot strategy for 2026". KTSM 9 News.
60. "Democrats Allred, Castro, O'Rourke, Talarico meet to discuss 2026 options". Dallas News. June 27, 2025. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
61. "Donald Trump's approval rating goes negative in Texas". Newsweek. June 26, 2025. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
62. Guo, Kayla (June 16, 2025). "Here are some of the Texas Democrats eyeing statewide runs in 2026". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
63. Schneider, Elena (July 1, 2025). "Colin Allred enters U.S. Senate Race in Texas". Politico . Retrieved July 1, 2025.
64. McCracken, Ford (August 15, 2025). "Sen. Nathan Johnson announces bid for Texas attorney general". KXAN-TV . Retrieved August 15, 2025.
65. Dahlkamp, Owen (June 23, 2025). "Former astronaut Terry Virts launches Democratic bid for U.S. Senate in Texas". The Texas Tribune . Retrieved June 23, 2025.
66. Wren, Adam (September 5, 2025). "State Sen. James Talarico to jump in Texas Senate race". Politico .
67. Jefferson, Greg (June 26, 2025). "Rep. Joaquin Castro says he might jump into 2026 U.S. Senate race". San Antonio Express-News . Retrieved June 26, 2025.
68. Kennedy, Bud (April 27, 2025). "Beto O'Rourke says 'if' Texans want him to run for U.S. Senate, 'yes I will'". Fort Worth Star-Telegram . Retrieved April 27, 2025.
69. Perano, Ursula; Diaz, Daniella (April 23, 2025). "Do Democrats Even Believe They Can Win Senate Seats in Florida and Texas?". NOTUS . Retrieved April 23, 2025.
70. Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett has no plans to run for U.S. Senate. KTVT . Retrieved August 23, 2025– via YouTube.
71. Solender, Andrew (April 10, 2025). "A growing wave of House members is grasping for higher office". Axios . Retrieved April 10, 2025.
72. https://x.com/RolandForTexas/status/1948439596246630759
73. Jeffers, Gromer Jr. (April 7, 2025). "Texas Democrats are searching for 2026 candidates as they resist President Donald Trump". The Dallas Morning News . Retrieved April 7, 2025.
74. Wu, Nicholas (June 8, 2025). "Texas Democrats see an opening as Paxton surges. But first they need a candidate". Politico . Retrieved June 9, 2025.
75. Mordowanec, Nick (July 10, 2025). "Jasmine Crockett's Chances of Winning Texas Senate Primary—Poll". Newsweek . Retrieved July 10, 2025.
76. Doonan, David (May 27, 2025). "University assistant professor announces his candidacy to represent the Green Party in 2026 Senate election". Green Party of the United States (Press release). Retrieved June 7, 2025.
77. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
78. "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
79. "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
80. "2026 Senate Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved March 19, 2025.
81. "Allred for Texas State of the Race Memo – August 2025" (PDF). GBAO. August 22, 2025. Retrieved August 22, 2025.

External links

Official campaign websites

• Virgil Bierschwale (R) for Senate
• John Cornyn (R) for Senate
• Alexander Duncan (R) for Senate
• Rennie Mann (R) for Senate
• Ken Paxton (R) for Senate
• Robert Smith (G) for Senate
• Colin Allred (D) for Senate
• Terry Virts (D) for Senate