2026 United States Senate election in Texas

For related races, see 2026 United States Senate elections.

2026 United States Senate election in Texas

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Party Republican Democratic

Incumbent U.S. senator John Cornyn Republican

The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020 is eligible to run for re-election to a fifth term in office.

Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1988. Due to Donald Trump's strong performance in Texas in 2024, Cornyn is generally seen as a strong favorite to win re-election. However, Cornyn may face a competitive primary challenge from Ken Paxton.

Republican primary

Background

In the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary, incumbent Senator John Cornyn is expected to seek a fifth term but may face a significant challenge from state Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two have clashed for years, with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine and a bipartisan gun safety bill. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles and 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was acquitted. Paxton has not yet announced his candidacy but is meeting with donors and voters. The race could become a key battle between the Texas GOP’s establishment and hardline conservative factions. ^[1]

Candidates

Declared

• John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present) ^[2]
• Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board ^[3]

Publicly expressed interest

• Bo French, chair of the Tarrant County Republican Party ^[4]
• Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present) ^[5]
• Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present) ^{[6] [7]}

Potential

• Dawn Buckingham, Texas Land Commissioner (2023–present) (if Cornyn withdraws) ^[8]
• Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative from Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present) ^[9]
• Michael McCaul, U.S. representative from Texas's 10th congressional district (2005–present) (if Cornyn withdraws) ^[9]
• Beth Van Duyne, U.S. representative from Texas's 24th congressional district (2021–present) (if Cornyn withdraws) ^[8]

Polling

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	John Cornyn	Ronny Jackson	Ken Paxton	Chip Roy	Undecided
Victory Insights (R)	January 4–6, 2025	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	34%	–	42%	–	25%
CWS Research (R) [10] [A]	October 19–23, 2023	823 (RV)	± 3.42%	35%	14%	–	18%	33%
CWS Research (R) [11] [A]	July 9–10, 2022	1,918 (RV)	± 2.2%	31%	–	51%	–	18%

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Inside Elections [12]	Solid R	January 17, 2025
The Cook Political Report [13]	Solid R	February 11, 2025
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14]	Likely R	February 13, 2025

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC

References

1. Gans, Jared (February 9, 2025). "7 competitive primaries to watch in 2026". The Hill. Archived from the original on February 10, 2025. Retrieved February 13, 2025.
2. Jeffers, Gromer Jr. (May 24, 2024). "U.S. Sen. John Cornyn commits to seeking reelection in 2026". The Dallas Morning News . Retrieved May 24, 2024.
3. Lewis, Jason; Fikes, Barry (October 16, 2024). "A Night with Rennie Mann: From Community Stories to U.S. Senate Candidacy". Coyote Nation (Podcast). Retrieved December 5, 2024– via Podbean.
4. Singer, Jeff; Nir, David (December 10, 2024). "Morning Digest: California's next race for governor is huge—and getting huger". The Downballot. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
5. Booker, Brakkton (March 3, 2025). "Black Republicans could stamp their mark on the midterms". Politico . Retrieved March 3, 2025. [Wesley Hunt] added himself to this list, pointing to the reported headwinds his state's senior Sen. John Cornyn faces next year — and the possibility of him opting to retire. Hunt did not rule out a Senate run under the right circumstances
6. Goldsberry, Jenny (December 22, 2024). "Paxton fans flames in tease of primary run against Cornyn". Washington Examiner . Retrieved January 6, 2025.
7. Steinhauser, Paul; Pinedo, Peter (January 28, 2025). "Key Trump ally to decide on possible run against leading Republican in 'next couple of months'". Fox News . Retrieved January 28, 2025.
8. Jeffers, Gromer (November 29, 2024). "John Cornyn and Ken Paxton have been trading jabs as a potential primary showdown looms". The Dallas Morning News . Retrieved November 29, 2024.
9. Solender, Andrew (November 27, 2024). "Scoop: A huge wave of House members is eyeing runs for other offices in 2026". Axios . Retrieved November 27, 2024.
10. CWS Research (R)
11. CWS Research (R)
12. "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 14, 2025.
13. "2026 CPR Senate Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 11, 2025.
14. "2026 Senate ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved February 13, 2025.