2022 Texas gubernatorial election

Last updated

2022 Texas gubernatorial election
Flag of Texas.svg
←  2018 November 8, 2022 2026  →
Turnout45.85% Decrease2.svg
  Greg Abbott 2015.jpg Beto O'Rourke April 2019.jpg
Nominee Greg Abbott Beto O'Rourke
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote4,437,0993,553,656
Percentage54.76%43.86%
2022 Texas gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2022 Texas Gubernatorial Election by Congressional District.svg
TX GOV BY STREP 2022.svg
TX GOV 2022 BY STATE SENATE DISTRICTS.svg
TX Governor 2022.svg
Abbott:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
O'Rourke:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No data
Governor before election

Greg Abbott
Republican

Elected Governor

Greg Abbott
Republican

The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a third term, defeating the Democratic nominee, former Congressman Beto O'Rourke. [1] All statewide elected offices are currently held by Republicans. In his previous gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote. [2]

Contents

The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.

Texas has not elected a Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards in 1990. Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving. [3] Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in 2018 for his unusually close and competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz, was widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott, but a failed run for President of the United States in 2020 prompted criticisms of opportunism via Republican attempts to brand him as anti-law enforcement and his former stance and disavowed comments on guns.

Abbott won by 10.9%, a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006, and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for the Texas Supreme Court in 1998. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid against George W. Bush in 1994. Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.

Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties, flipping the heavily Hispanic counties of Culberson and Zapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history (though Zapata had earlier voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election), while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county of Fort Bend since 1974. O'Rourke outperformed Joe Biden two years prior among Latino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.

Republican primary

On June 4, 2021, Texas Republican Party chairman Allen West announced his resignation as party chair. [4] West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas. [5] The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside the Governor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates. [6] On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary. [7] Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott. [8] [9] On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Greg Abbott
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
State officials
Organizations
Don Huffines
U.S. Senators
U.S. representatives
Texas state representatives
Local officials
  • Don McLaughlin, mayor of Uvalde (2014–present) [44]
Individuals
Allen West
Texas state representatives
Individuals

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott		Don
Huffines		Ricky Lynn
Perry		Chad
Prather		Allen
West		OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R) February 25–28, 20221,040 (LV)± 3.0%62%10%2%2%15%5% [b] 3%
Emerson College February 21–22, 2022522 (LV)± 4.2%61%9%3%3%12%3% [c] 9%
UT Tyler February 8–15, 2022581 (LV)± 4.4%60%3%6%3%7%5% [d] 15%
YouGov/UT January 28 – February 7, 2022375 (LV)± 5.1%60%14%5%3%15%3% [e] –
Paradigm Partners (R) [A] January 31, 20221,542 (LV)± 2.5%34%5%6%6%43%3% [f] 4%
UT Tyler January 18–25, 2022514 (LV)± 5.1%59%4%4%2%6%4% [g] 20%
YouGov/UH January 14–24, 2022490 (LV)± 3.7%58%7%3%2%11%2% [h] 17%
Paradigm Partners (R) [A] January 9, 20221,486 (LV)± 2.5%33%5%12%3%38%3% [i] 7%
Paradigm Partners (R) [A] December 16, 2021447 (LV)± 4.5%33%2%15%1%35%–14%
Paradigm Partners (R) [A] November 30, 2021– (LV)–42%3%–2%36%–17%
UT Tyler November 9–16, 2021520 (LV)± 4.7%65%3%–6%6%3%18%
Paradigm Partners (R) [A] November 11, 2021– (LV)–43%3%–2%33%–19%
YouGov/UT/TT October 22–31, 2021554 (RV)± 4.2%56%7%–4%13%4%16%
YouGov/TXHPF October 14–27, 2021405 (LV)± 4.9%61%4%–3%13%–19%
UT Tyler September 7–14, 2021427 (LV)± 6.1%70%15%–––15%–
431 (LV)± 6.0%65%–––20%15%–
Victory Insights (R) July 22–24, 2021400 (RV)± 4.9%80%–––20%––
Paradigm Partners (R) [A] June 30, 2021– (LV)–73%–––17%–10%
UT Tyler June 22–29, 2021440 (LV)± 5.4%77%12%–––11%–
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott		Don
Huffines		Sid
Miller		Allen
West		Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [B] June 14–17, 2021446 (LV)± 4.6%69%3%3%13%–

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Abbott 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2022 Texas Governor Republican Primary.svg
Results by county:
  Abbott
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent) 1,299,059 66.48%
Republican Allen West 239,55712.26%
Republican Don Huffines 234,13811.98%
Republican Chad Prather 74,1733.80%
Republican Ricky Lynn Perry61,4243.14%
Republican Kandy Kaye Horn23,6051.21%
Republican Paul Belew11,3870.58%
Republican Danny Harrison10,8290.55%
Total votes1,954,172 100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

  • Jack Daniel Foster Jr., teacher [14]
  • R. Star Locke, veteran [14]

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Inocencio
Barrientez		Michael
Cooper		Joy
Diaz		Jack
Foster Jr.		Deirdre
Gilbert		Star
Locke		Beto
O'Rourke		Rich
Wakeland		OtherUndecided
Emerson College February 21–22, 2022388 (LV)± 4.9%1%5%4%–––78%2%–11%
UT Tyler February 8–15, 2022479 (LV)± 4.9%2%3%4%2%2%2%68%2%–14%
YouGov/UT January 28 – February 7, 2022348 (LV)± 5.3%2%1%2%–––93%1%1%–
UT Tyler January 18–25, 2022459 (LV)± 5.4%1%6%4%2%1%1%58%0%–27%
YouGov/UH January 14–24, 2022616 (LV)± 3.3%3%4%3%–––73%1%–16%
YouGov/UT/TT October 22–31, 2021436 (RV)± 4.7%––––––70%–5%25%

Results

Results by county: O'Rourke: O'Rourke-->90% O'Rourke--80-90% O'Rourke--70-80% O'Rourke--60-70% O'Rourke--50-60% O'Rourke--40-50% Wakeland: Wakeland--40-50% Barrientez: Barrientez--50-60% No vote: No vote 2022 Texas Governor Democratic Primary.svg
Results by county:
O'Rourke:
  •   O'Rourke—>90%
  •   O'Rourke—80–90%
  •   O'Rourke—70–80%
  •   O'Rourke—60–70%
  •   O'Rourke—50–60%
  •   O'Rourke—40–50%
Wakeland:
  •   Wakeland—40–50%
Barrientez:
  •   Barrientez—50–60%
No vote:
  •   No vote
Democratic primary results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 983,182 91.41%
Democratic Joy Diaz33,6223.13%
Democratic Michael Cooper32,6733.04%
Democratic Rich Wakeland13,2371.23%
Democratic Inocencio Barrientez12,8871.20%
Total votes1,075,601 100%

Green primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Delilah Barrios, environmental activist [80]

Libertarian convention

Candidates

Declared

  • Mark Jay Tippetts, attorney, former Lago Vista city councilman, and nominee for governor in 2018 [81]

Withdrew/disqualified

Independents and other parties

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [91] Likely RMarch 4, 2022
Inside Elections [92] Solid RJuly 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball [93] Likely RJune 29, 2022
Politico [94] Likely RApril 1, 2022
RCP [95] Lean RJanuary 10, 2022
Fox News [96] Likely RMay 12, 2022
538 [97] Solid RSeptember 21, 2022
Elections Daily [98] Likely RNovember 7, 2022

Debates

2022 Texas gubernatorial general election debates
No.DateHostModeratorsLink Republican Democratic
Key:

 P Participant  A Absent  N Non-invitee  I Invitee  W  Withdrawn

Greg AbbottBeto O'Rourke
1Sep. 30, 2022 KXAN-TV Sally Hernandez
Gromer Jeffers
Steve Spriester		 KXAN-TV PP

Endorsements

Greg Abbott (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
State officials
Newspapers
Organizations
Beto O'Rourke (D)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State officials
County officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Greg
Abbott (R)		Beto
O'Rourke (D)		Other
[j] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics October 3–19, 2022October 25, 202252.8%43.5%3.7%Abbott +9.3
FiveThirtyEight June 14, 2021 – October 25, 2022October 25, 202251.4%42.9%5.7%Abbott +8.5
Average52.1%43.2%4.7%Abbott +8.9
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott (R)		Beto
O'Rourke (D)		OtherUndecided
CWS Research (R) [C] November 2–5, 2022786 (LV)± 3.5%53%42%2%3%
UT Tyler October 17–24, 20221,330 (RV)± 2.9%47%44%7% [k] 1%
973 (LV)± 3.4%50%44%5% [l] 1%
Emerson College October 17–19, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%52%42%1% [m] 4%
53%44%3% [n] –
Siena College October 16–19, 2022649 (LV)± 5.1%52%43%2% [o] 4%
Beacon Research (D) [D] October 15–19, 20221,264 (RV)± 2.8%48%45%––
BSP Research/UT [E] October 11–18, 20221,400 (RV)± 2.6%46%42%3% [p] 9%
YouGov/UT October 7–17, 2022833 (LV)± 3.3%54%43%4% [q] 2%
Civiqs October 8–11, 2022791 (LV)± 4.0%52%44%3% [r] 0%
Marist College October 3–6, 20221,058 (RV)± 4.4%49%45%1% [s] 5%
898 (LV)± 4.8%52%44%1% [t] 4%
Quinnipiac University September 22–26, 20221,327 (LV)± 2.7%53%46%2% [u] –
Emerson College September 20–22, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%42%4% [v] 5%
ActiVote June 23 – September 21, 2022323 (LV)± 6.0%47%40%12% [w] –
Siena College September 14–18, 2022651 (LV)± 4.4%50%43%2% [x] 5%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation September 6–15, 20221,172 (LV)± 2.9%51%44%2% [y] 3%
UT Tyler September 7–13, 20221,268 (RV)± 2.9%47%38%9% [z] 2%
Data for Progress (D) September 2–9, 2022712 (LV)± 4.0%50%45%2% [aa] 3%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022813 (LV)± 4.4%48%46%–6%
YouGov/UT August 26 – September 6, 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%40%4% [ab] 11%
YouGov/UH/TSU August 11–29, 20221,312 (LV)± 2.7%49%42%2% [ac] 7%
UT Tyler Archived October 31, 2022, at the Wayback Machine August 1–7, 20221,384 (RV)± 2.8%46%39%13% [ad] 1%
1,215 (LV)± 3.0%48%42%9% [ae] 1%
YouGov/UH June 27 – July 7, 20221,169 (RV)± 2.9%47%42%2% [af] 9%
1,006 (LV)± 3.1%49%44%2% [af] 5%
YouGov/CBS News June 22–27, 2022548 (LV)± 6.6%49%41%4%6%
YouGov/UT June 16–24, 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%45%39%6% [ag] 10%
YouGov/PerryUndem June 15–24, 20222,000 (RV)± 2.2%47%43%3%5%
Quinnipiac University June 9–13, 20221,257 (RV)± 2.8%48%43%2%5%
Blueprint Polling (D) Archived June 13, 2022, at the Wayback Machine June 8–10, 2022603 (LV)± 4.0%56%37%–7%
UT Tyler May 2–10, 20221,232 (RV)± 3.1%46%39%14% [ah] 2%
YouGov/UT April 14–22, 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%48%37%7%9%
YouGov/TXHPF March 18–28, 20221,139 (LV)± 2.9%50%42%3% [ai] 5%
Texas Lyceum March 11–20, 2022926 (RV)± 3.2%42%40%7%11%
Emerson College February 21–22, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%52%45%–3%
UT Tyler February 8–15, 20221,188 (RV)± 3.1%45%38%16%1%
Climate Nexus February 1–9, 2022806 (LV)± 3.6%45%40%7%8%
YouGov/UT January 28 – February 7, 20221,200 (RV)± 2.8%47%37%6%11%
UT Tyler January 18–25, 20221,072 (RV)± 3.5%47%36%16%1%
YouGov/UH January 14–24, 2022– (LV) [aj] – [aj] 48%43%3% [ak] 6%
Quinnipiac University December 2–6, 20211,224 (RV)± 2.8%52%37%4%6%
UT Tyler November 9–16, 20211,106 (RV)± 3.2%45%39%16%–
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021884 (RV)± 3.3%40%39%5%7%
854 (LV)± 3.4%43%44%5%6%
YouGov/UT/TT October 22–31, 20211,200 (RV)± 2.8%46%37%7%10%
YouGov/TXHPF October 14–27, 20211,402 (RV)± 3.1%43%42%3% [al] 12%
UT Tyler September 7–14, 20211,148 (RV)± 3.7%42%37%21%–
UT Tyler June 22–29, 20211,090 (RV)± 3.0%45%33%22%–
Public Opinion Strategies (R) [F] June 14–17, 2021800 (LV)± 3.5%52%42%–6%
Hypothetical polling
Greg Abbott vs. Julián Castro
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott (R)		Julián
Castro (D)		OtherUndecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies November 9, 2021884 (RV)± 3.3%43%35%4%9%
854 (LV)± 3.4%45%39%4%8%
Greg Abbott vs. Beto O'Rourke with Matthew McConaughey as an independent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott (R)		Beto
O'Rourke (D)		Matthew
McConaughey (I)		OtherUndecided
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022813 (LV)± 4.4%42%39%13%–6%
UT Tyler November 9–16, 20211,106 (RV)± 3.2%37%26%27%10%–
YouGov/TXHPF October 14–27, 20211,402 (RV)± 3.1%40%37%9%2% [am] 12%
Greg Abbott vs. Don Huffines
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott (R)		Don
Huffines		Other
UT Tyler June 22–29, 20211,090 (RV)± 3.0%46%22%32%
Greg Abbott vs. Matthew McConaughey
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott (R)		Matthew
McConaughey		Other
UT Tyler November 9–16, 20211,106 (RV)± 3.2%35%43%22%
UT Tyler September 7–14, 20211,148 (RV)± 3.7%35%44%21%
UT Tyler June 22–29, 20211,090 (RV)± 3.0%39%38%23%
UT Tyler April 6–13, 20211,124 (RV)± 2.9%33%45%22%
Greg Abbott vs. generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Data for Progress (D) [G] September 15–22, 2020726 (LV)± 3.6%46%34%20%
Greg Abbott vs. generic opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Greg
Abbott (R)		Generic
Opponent		Undecided
Quinnipiac University September 24–27, 2021863 (RV)± 3.3%42%51%7%
Quinnipiac University June 15–21, 20211,099 (RV)± 3.0%46%48%6%

Results

2022 Texas gubernatorial election [152]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent) 4,437,099 54.76% −1.05%
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 3,553,65643.86%+1.35%
Libertarian Mark Tippetts81,9321.01%−0.68%
Green Delilah Barrios28,5840.35%N/A
American Solidarity Jacqueline Abernathy1,2430.02%N/A
Total votes8,102,908 100.00% N/A
Turnout 8,102,90845.85%
Registered electors 17,672,143
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Abbott won 25 of 38 congressional districts. [153]

DistrictAbbottO'RourkeRepresentative
1st 77.3%21.7% Louie Gohmert (117th Congress)
Nathaniel Moran (118th Congress)
2nd 62.2%36.4% Dan Crenshaw
3rd 59.2%39.5% Van Taylor (117th Congress)
Keith Self (118th Congress)
4th 65.7%33.2% Pat Fallon
5th 63.4%35.4% Lance Gooden
6th 65.5%34.3% Jake Ellzey
7th 35.2%63.3% Lizzie Fletcher
8th 66.6%32.2% Kevin Brady (117th Congress)
Morgan Luttrell (118th Congress)
9th 23%75.5% Al Green
10th 61.5%37.1% Michael McCaul
11th 73.7%25% August Pfluger
12th 59.9%38.6% Kay Granger
13th 74.7%24% Ronny Jackson
14th 66.5%32.1% Randy Weber
15th 52.4%46.4%Vicente Gonzalez (117th Congress)
Monica De La Cruz (118th Congress)
16th 34.7%63.7% Veronica Escobar
17th 64.8%33.9% Pete Sessions
18th 25.2%73.3% Sheila Jackson Lee
19th 76.6%22.1% Jodey Arrington
20th 32.4%66.2% Joaquín Castro
21st 60.8%37.8% Chip Roy
22nd 59.5%39.1% Troy Nehls
23rd 54.5%44.1% Tony Gonzales
24th 57.6%41% Beth Van Duyne
25th 67.9%30.9% Roger Williams
26th 61.3%37.4% Michael Burgess
27th 64%34.7% Michael Cloud
28th 46.4%51.7% Henry Cuellar
29th 29.9%68.4% Sylvia Garcia
30th 22.1%76.9% Eddie Bernice Johnson (117th Congress)
Jasmine Crockett (118th Congress)
31st 61.3%37.2% John Carter
32nd 34.4%64.2% Colin Allred
33rd 25.8%73% Marc Veasey
34th 42.7%55.9% Mayra Flores (117th Congress)
Vicente Gonzalez (118th Congress)
35th 25.7%72.7% Lloyd Doggett (117th Congress)
Greg Casar (118th Congress)
36th 67.4%31.2% Brian Babin
37th 21.4%77.2% Lloyd Doggett
38th 60.6%37.9% Wesley Hunt

Analysis

Map of MECE (mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) partition of Texas into 12 regions. Texas Economic Regions 2022.svg
Map of MECE (mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) partition of Texas into 12 regions.

Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, which did not materialize. Abbott won by 10.9%, down from 13.3% in 2018. Abbott's margin was slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties (235 out of 254), mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. In particular, 34 counties, mainly in West Texas and the Texas panhandle, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote. This was the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since Democrat Allan Shivers' 1954 re-election. [155]

Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which include Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington in North Texas, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land in Southeast Texas, and San Antonio–New Braunfels in South-Central Texas. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which include Corpus Christi along the coastal bend; Waco, Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, and Bryan–College Station in Central Texas; Beaumont–Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview in East Texas; Lubbock, Abilene, and Midland-Odessa in West Texas; and Amarillo in the Panhandle. Abbott also won an urban county, Tarrant, home to Fort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of the Texas Triangle, winning Brazoria, Galveston, and Montgomery counties around Houston; Comal and Guadalupe around San Antonio; Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, and Rockwall in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex; and Williamson in Greater Austin. [156]

In DFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength has declined somewhat in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.

O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carried Travis, home to the state capital Austin (72.6% - 25.9%), his best performance in the state; El Paso, his home county, 63.4% - 35%; Dallas (62.8% - 35.9%); Bexar, home to San Antonio (57.5% - 41.1%); and Harris, home to Houston (54% - 44.5%). He also carried Hays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which contains San Marcos and Texas State University along with fast-growing cities of Kyle, and Buda by 54.5% - 43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in 2018, and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburban Fort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.

Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was heavily Hispanic South Texas along the U.S. border with Mexico. His performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but he did outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits like Duval (2.61%), Starr (5%), and Maverick (9.45%); voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties, Zapata and Culberson (in the Trans Pecos).

Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male (58% - 41%) and female voters (51% - 48%), whites (66% - 33%), and other races (67% - 31%), voters over 45 (60% - 39%), college graduates (52% - 47%) and non-college graduates (56% - 43%), and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election (94% - 5%). O'Rourke won black voters (84% - 15%), Latinos (57% - 40%), Asians (52% - 48%), voters between 18 and 44 (54% - 44%), Independents (49%-47%) and moderates (60% - 38%). [157] [158] [159]

Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male (59%-39%) and female voters (51%-48%); whites (68%-30%) and other races and ethnicities (53%-42%); voters over 45 (61%-37%); college graduates (54%-44%), non-college graduates (56%-43%); white men (70%-28%); white women (67%-32%). O'Rourke won African Americans (81%-18%), Latinos (56%-42%); African American men (76%-24%); African American women (85%-13%) and Latina women (61%-37%). O'Rourke also won Latino men (55%-45%). [160]

Voter demographics

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls. [161] There were 4,327 total respondents.

2022 Texas gubernatorial election (CNN) [161]
Demographic subgroupAbbottO'Rourke % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 108922
Moderates 386036
Conservatives 91942
Party
Democrats 39730
Republicans 95541
Independents 474929
Age
18–24 years old31679
25–29 years old39616
30–39 years old475015
40–49 years old534516
50–64 years old613827
65 and older623727
Gender
Men584149
Women514851
Marital status
Married633663
Unmarried455437
Gender by marital status
Married men643533
Married women613829
Unmarried men494917
Unmarried women425821
Race/ethnicity
White 663362
Black 158412
Latino 405721
Asian 48523
Other67312
Gender by race
White men693030
White women643632
Black men22786
Black women9906
Latino men455310
Latina women366211
Other racial/ethnic groups57425
Education
Never attended college 604012
Some college education534528
Associate degree 574115
Bachelor's degree 544426
Advanced degree495018
Education by race
White college graduates603931
White no college degree722731
Non-white college graduates346514
Non-white no college degree356325
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees574215
White women without college degrees702917
White men with college degrees633616
White men without college degrees752414
Non-white356439
Issue regarded as most important
Crime 583611
Inflation 762228
Immigration 881215
Gun policy 326712
Abortion 198027
Abortion should be
Legal237554
Illegal92743
First-time midterm election voter
Yes435714
No554486
2020 presidential vote
Trump 97250
Biden 49641
OtherN/AN/A3
Did not voteN/AN/A5
Biden legitimately won in 2020
Yes257454
No94542
Area type
Urban495042
Suburban564347
Rural663211

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 1%
  3. ↑ Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 0%
  4. ↑ Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
  5. ↑ Someone else with 2%, Horn with 1%
  6. ↑ Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
  7. ↑ Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
  8. ↑ Harrison and Horn with 1%; Belew with 0%
  9. ↑ Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
  10. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  12. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  13. ↑ Tippetts (L) with 1%; Barrios (G) with <1%
  14. ↑ Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  15. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  16. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts and Barrios with 1%
  18. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  19. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  20. ↑ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  21. ↑ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  22. ↑ Tippetts (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 2%
  23. ↑ Tippetts with 9%; Barrios with 3%
  24. ↑ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  25. ↑ Barrios and Tippetts with 1%
  26. ↑ "Someone else" with 6%; Barrios and Tippets with 3%
  27. ↑ "Another candidate" with 2%
  28. ↑ Tippetts with 2% and Barrios with 2%
  29. ↑ Tippetts with 1% and Barrios with 1%
  30. ↑ "Someone else" with 7%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
  31. ↑ "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts with 3%; Barrios with 2%
  32. 1 2 Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 0%
  33. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
  34. ↑ "Someone else" with 8%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
  35. ↑ Tippetts with 2%, Barrios with 1%
  36. 1 2 Subsample of likely general election voters from a survey of 1,400 registered voters (overall margin of error ± 2.2% including design effect)
  37. ↑ Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
  38. ↑ Behrman/Jewell with 2%, Barrios with 1%
  39. ↑ Behrman/Jewell and Barrios with 1%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Poll conducted for West's campaign
  2. ↑ Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
  3. ↑ Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC.
  4. ↑ Poll conducted for the Democratic Policy Institute, a non-profit organization advocating for progressive causes.
  5. ↑ Poll sponsored by Univision.
  6. ↑ Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

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  83. 1 2 Elections 2022 Libertarian Party
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  91. ↑ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
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  94. ↑ "Texas Governor Race 2022". Politico . April 1, 2022.
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  99. ↑ "Texas Gov. Greg Abbott widens lead on Beto O'Rourke in new poll". Twitter . September 20, 2022. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  100. ↑ "Gov. Greg Abbott, Beto O'Rourke make campaign stops in Houston". October 9, 2022.
  101. 1 2 3 "Gov. Abbott encourages supporters to 'get out the vote' during Tyler campaign event". October 26, 2022.
  102. ↑ "SHOWDOWN! Gov Abbott's MASTER PLAN to Stick it to Biden". YouTube . April 8, 2022. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  103. 1 2 3 "Gov. Greg Abbott attends 'Get out the Vote' rally in Amarillo".
  104. ↑ "Recommendation: Greg Abbott is Better Option for Texas Governor". The Amarillo Pioneer. October 23, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  105. ↑ "EXAMINER ENDORSEMENTS 2022 - Governor". The Beaumont Examiner. October 27, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
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  108. ↑ "Koch Latino campaign group endorses Abbott in Texas". www.thehill.com. June 16, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  109. ↑ "National Border Patrol Council Endorses Governor Greg Abbott". www.gregabbott.com. September 19, 2022. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  110. ↑ "National Right to Life Endorses Greg Abbott for Texas Governor". National Right to Life Committee. July 20, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  111. ↑ "2022 General Election Endorsements". August 18, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  112. ↑ "Texas Association of Realtors PAC releases endorsements". www.therealdeal.com. October 3, 2022. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  113. ↑ "Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro Talks Future of Democratic Party at IOP Forum". www.thecrimson.com. March 25, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  114. ↑ "Obama calling Texas voters to support Beto O'Rourke for governor". November 7, 2022.
  115. ↑ "Texas Democrats Back Together in Dallas". Texas Signal. July 15, 2022.
  116. 1 2 3 "Thousands Join Beto O'Rourke, Houston Lawmakers in Abortion Rights Rally". Texas Signal. May 9, 2022.
  117. 1 2 "Beto rallies voters at Sue Ellen's". November 4, 2022.
  118. ↑ "In the heart of the Third Ward with Congresswoman Jackson Lee, State Rep. Shawn Thierry, and local leaders on the ground who are ensuring Texas finally delivers for everyone in this community". Twitter . October 29, 2022. Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  119. ↑ "Mayor Turner speaks at Beto O'Rourke Rally for Abortion Rights in Discovery Green". www.yahoo.com. May 7, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.[ permanent dead link ]
  120. 1 2 "Matthew Broderick hosting star-studded NYC fundraiser for Beto campaign". September 16, 2022.
  121. ↑ "Beto O'Rourke shows up for endorsement from the Chicks at Houston concert". October 9, 2022.
  122. ↑ "Hundreds show up to early voting event in Acres Homes". October 30, 2022.
  123. ↑ "Selena Gomez Endorses Beto O'Rourke for Texas Governor". Billboard .
  124. ↑ "Luci Baines Johnson makes stops in Marshall to stump for Beto O'Rourke". October 29, 2022.
  125. ↑ "LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA RALLIES WITH BETO AND GARZA IN HOUSTON". texassignal.com. October 19, 2022. Retrieved October 29, 2022.
  126. ↑ "Country superstar Kacey Musgraves brings out, endorses Beto O'Rourke during Austin City Limits". October 17, 2022.
  127. ↑ "Willie Nelson endorses Beto O'Rourke at Austin campaign rally". www.kxan.com. September 30, 2022. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
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  129. ↑ "Coach Popovich joins Democrats on gun control, says Abbott, Republicans 'haven't done crap'". www.sanantonioreport.org. June 4, 2022. Retrieved September 29, 2022.
  130. ↑ "Soros Backs O'Rourke's Bid for Texas Governor With $1 Million". Bloomberg . July 19, 2022. Retrieved September 20, 2022.
  131. ↑ "Garcia: Lionel Sosa strikes out against his old party in ad for Beto O'Rourke". San Antonio Express News. November 2, 2022. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  132. ↑ "Harry Styles Endorses Beto O'Rourke During Texas Concert". www.variety.com. October 3, 2022. Retrieved October 3, 2022.
  133. ↑ "Try Guys star hosts Beto O'Rourke fundraiser in San Antonio". July 12, 2022.
  134. ↑ "Kerry Washington Explains Why She Chooses to Talk About Politics as an Actor". October 28, 2022.
  135. ↑ "Paramore's Hayley Williams encourages fans to vote for Beto O'Rourke on TikTok". www.chron.com. November 2, 2022. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  136. ↑ "Oprah Winfrey backs Fetterman". November 4, 2022.
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  138. ↑ "Texas - UAW Endorsements". United Auto Workers.
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  140. ↑ "Our Candidates". democracyforamerica.com. Democracy for America.
  141. ↑ "2022 Endorsements". equalitytexas.org. Equality Texas. October 7, 2022.
  142. ↑ "2022 Endorsed Candidates". Everytown for Gun Safety. Archived from the original on June 29, 2022. Retrieved June 23, 2022.
  143. ↑ "Giffords PAC Endorses Beto O'Rourke for Governor". July 8, 2022. Retrieved August 21, 2022.
  144. ↑ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Beto O'Rourke For Texas Governor". March 3, 2022.
  145. ↑ "JOLT ENDORSES STATEWIDE CANDIDATES FOR OFFICE". jolttx.org. August 30, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  146. ↑ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses Beto O'Rourke for Texas Governor". August 25, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  147. ↑ "Endorsements". organizerexas.org. September 6, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  148. ↑ "Texas Rising Action Endorsements". txrising.org. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
  149. ↑ "Statesman Editorial Board endorsements in the November 2022 election". Austin American-Statesman. October 23, 2022. Retrieved October 25, 2022.
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  151. ↑ "Editorial: O'Rourke for governor". San Antonio Express-News. October 21, 2022.
  152. ↑ "Texas Election Results".
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  155. ↑ "Republican victories show Texas is still far from turning blue". The Texas Tribune. November 9, 2022. As large as the cities are and how Democratic that they are, Texas Democrats still don't have a way to get past that red wall of rural West Texas, [Drew Landry] said. Rural Texas still rules the day. I was seeing some very, very close numbers before a lot of the rural counties reported [election returns], and once they did, it just blew the door open for Abbott.
  156. ↑ Ura, Alexa; Covington, Caroline; Khatib, Jade (November 11, 2022). "Republicans rebounded in some suburban counties that had been drifting blue". The Texas Tribune. Retrieved May 30, 2024.
  157. ↑ "2022 Gubernatorial General Election Results". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections.
  158. ↑ "2020 Presidential General Election Results - Texas" . Retrieved December 20, 2022.
  159. ↑ "Texas Governor Election Results 2022". NBC News.
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