2016 United States presidential election in Texas

Last updated

2016 United States presidential election in Texas
Flag of Texas.svg
←  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  →
Turnout59.4% (of registered voters) Increase2.svg
46.5% (of voting age population) [1]
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Hillary Clinton by Gage Skidmore 2.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Hillary Clinton
Party Republican Democratic
Home state New York New York
Running mate Mike Pence Tim Kaine
Electoral vote36 [a] 0
Popular vote4,685,0473,877,868
Percentage52.23%43.24%
Texas Presidential Election Results 2016.svg
TX-16-pres-districts.svg
TxSenPres2016.svg
2016txpreshd.svg
2016 Election in Texas by Precinct(2022 VTD) (4).svg
President before election

Barack Obama
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color Texas 2016 presidential results by county.png
Results by county showing number of votes by size and candidates by color
Treemap of the popular vote by county United States presidential election in Texas, 2016.svg
Treemap of the popular vote by county

The 2016 United States presidential election in Texas took place on November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election. Primary elections were held on March 1, 2016.

Contents

Texas was won by Republican Donald Trump and his running mate Mike Pence by a 8.99% margin over Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine. Texas assigned its 38 Electoral College votes to the state's popular vote winner, but two faithless electors chose other candidates, making Texas the only state in 2016 to give Trump fewer than the assigned electoral votes. Even then, its 36 electoral votes were Trump's largest electoral prize in 2016.

When the Electoral College met on December 19, 2016, only 36 of the 38 electors voted for Trump for president. Two electors defected; one voted for Ohio Governor John Kasich, and the other voted for former Congressman Ron Paul, making the latter, at 81 and despite not running, the oldest person to ever receive an electoral vote. For vice president, 37 electors voted for Pence, while one voted for Carly Fiorina. This was the first time since 1976 where a Republican presidential candidate lost a pledged vote via a faithless elector; that year, Gerald Ford lost a Washington state electoral vote to fellow Republican Ronald Reagan. Additionally, this was the first time since 1972 that the winning presidential candidate lost an electoral vote, when Richard Nixon lost a Virginia electoral vote to Libertarian Party nominee John Hospers.

Texas was one of eleven states (and the District of Columbia) where Clinton improved on Barack Obama's performance in 2012. [4] Clinton lost Texas by a smaller margin than any Democrat since 1996 (though her proportion of the vote was slightly smaller than that received by Barack Obama in 2008), which analysts attributed to Trump losing ground with college-educated white voters. Trump's performance in Texas was the weakest of any victorious Republican nominee since Richard Nixon in 1968 - the last Republican to win the presidency without carrying Texas. Trump in 2016 was the tenth consecutive Republican presidential nominee to win Texas, beginning with Reagan in 1980. Nevertheless, he became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying Bexar County since Richard Nixon in 1968, as well as the first to win without carrying Fort Bend County since Herbert Hoover in 1928, and the first to win without carrying Harris or Dallas County since Calvin Coolidge in 1924.

Primaries

Democratic primary

The Texas Democratic Party held their state's primary in concurrence with the other Super Tuesday contests on March 1. Eight candidates appeared on the ballot, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, dropped-out candidate Martin O'Malley and five minor candidates (Rocky De La Fuente, Willie Wilson, Star Locke, Keith Russell Judd and Calvis Hawes.) The Texas Democratic primary had 251 delegates to the Democratic National Convention: 222 pledged delegates and 29 super delegates. 145 delegates were allocated proportionally based on the results in the state's 31 senatorial districts. The other 77 pledged delegates were allocated proportionally based on the statewide popular vote. [5]

Results

2016 Texas Democratic Party presidential primary [6]
CandidatePopular voteDelegates
CountPercentagePledged delegatesSuper delegatesTotal delegates
America Symbol.svg Hillary Clinton 936,00465.19%14721168
Bernie Sanders 476,54733.19%75075
Rocky De Le Fuente 8,4290.59%000
Martin O'Malley 5,3640.37%000
Willie Wilson 3,2540.23%000
Keith Russell Judd 2,5690.18%000
Calvis L. Hawes2,0170.14%000
Star Locke1,7110.12%000
Uncommittedn/a88
Total:1,435,895100%22229251
Key:Withdrew prior to contest

Republican primary

Results

2016 Texas Republican Party presidential primary [7]
CandidatePopular voteDelegates
CountPercentage
America Symbol.svg Ted Cruz 1,241,11843.76%104
Donald Trump 758,76226.75%48
Marco Rubio 503,05517.74%3
John Kasich 120,4734.25%0
Ben Carson 117,9694.16%0
Jeb Bush 35,4201.25%0
Uncommitted29,6091.04%0
Rand Paul 8,0000.28%0
Mike Huckabee 6,2260.22%0
Elizabeth Gray5,4490.19%0
Chris Christie 3,4480.12%0
Carly Fiorina 3,2470.11%0
Rick Santorum 2,0060.07%0
Lindsey Graham 1,7060.06%0
Total:2,836,488100%155
Key:Withdrew prior to contest

Green Party caucus

The Texas Green Party held its party caucuses at conventions at the precinct level on March 8, [8] the county level on March 12, [9] and the district level on March 19, [10] leading up to the state nominating convention in Grey Forest, Texas, on April 9 and 10. [11]

On April 10 it was announced that Jill Stein had won the state convention. [12]

Texas Green Party presidential caucus, Saturday, April 9, 2016
CandidateVotesPercentageNational delegates
America Symbol.svg Jill Stein --15
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry--3
Darryl Cherney --2
Kent Mesplay --2
William Kreml--1
Total-100.00%23

Campaign

The Green Party did host their National Convention in Houston from August 4-6 [13] at the University of Houston [14] making it the last physical convention for the Green Party to date for a presidential election as one was held virtually for the 2020 and 2024 elections. [15] [16]

General election

Polling

Trump won every single pre-election poll with margins varying from 2 to 14 points. Trump won the last poll 49% to 35% and the average of the last three polls showed Trump leading 50% to 38%. [17]

Predictions

The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Texas as of Election Day.

SourceRankingAs of
Los Angeles Times [18] Lean RNovember 6, 2016
CNN [19] Safe RNovember 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [20] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Safe RNovember 7, 2016
NBC [22] Lean RNovember 8, 2016
Electoral-vote.com [23] Lean RNovember 8, 2016
RealClearPolitics [24] Likely RNovember 8, 2016
Fox News [25] Lean RNovember 7, 2016
ABC [26] Safe RNovember 7, 2016

Results

The voting age population was 19,307,355, of which 15,101,087 were registered to vote. Turnout was 8,969,226, which is 46.45% of the voting age population and 59.39% of registered voters. The early voting period lasted for two weeks ending November 4, with 43.5% of registered voters casting early or absentee ballots. Out of those who cast votes, 73% cast their ballots early or absentee and 26% voted on Election Day. [27]

Thirteen candidates received write-in votes, of which the large majority (42,366) went to Evan McMullin.

2016 United States presidential election in Texas [28]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican Donald Trump Mike Pence 4,685,04752.23%36
Democratic Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine 3,877,86843.24%0
Libertarian Gary Johnson William Weld 283,4923.16%0
Green Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka 71,5580.80%0
Write-in Various candidatesVarious candidates51,2610.57%0
Republican John Kasich [a] Carly Fiorina [a] 00.00%1
Libertarian [29] Ron Paul [a] Mike Pence 00.00%1
Totals8,969,226100.00%38
Turnout (VAP)46.45% [30]
2012-2016 Swing by Precinct Trump >50% 40-50% 30-40% 20-30% 15-20% 10-15% 5-10% 1-5% Clinton 1-5% 5-10% 10-15% 15-20% 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% >50% 2012-2016 Swing Using 2022 VTD.svg
2012-2016 Swing by Precinct
  Trump
  •   >50%
  •   40-50%
  •   30-40%
  •   20-30%
  •   15-20%
  •   10-15%
  •   5-10%
  •   1-5%
  Clinton
  •   1-5%
  •   5-10%
  •   10-15%
  •   15-20%
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   >50%

By county

CountyDonald Trump
Republican		Hillary Clinton
Democratic		Various candidates
Other parties		MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Anderson 13,20177.76%3,36919.84%4072.40%9,83257.92%16,977
Andrews 3,92779.45%83616.91%1803.64%3,09162.54%4,943
Angelina 21,66872.44%7,53825.20%7052.36%14,13047.24%29,911
Aransas 7,74073.63%2,46523.45%3072.92%5,27550.18%10,512
Archer 3,78688.40%3949.20%1032.40%3,39279.20%4,283
Armstrong 92490.50%706.86%272.64%85483.64%1,021
Atascosa 8,61863.03%4,65134.02%4042.95%3,96729.01%13,673
Austin 9,63778.52%2,32018.90%3172.58%7,31759.62%12,274
Bailey 1,34474.96%39722.14%522.90%94752.82%1,793
Bandera 8,16379.89%1,72616.89%3293.22%6,43763.00%10,218
Bastrop 16,32856.96%10,56936.87%1,7686.17%5,75920.09%28,665
Baylor 1,26784.52%19112.74%412.74%1,07671.78%1,499
Bee 4,74455.91%3,44440.59%2973.50%1,30015.32%8,485
Bell 51,99854.33%37,80139.50%5,9026.17%14,19714.83%95,701
Bexar 240,33340.42%319,55053.74%34,6915.84%-79,217-13.32%594,574
Blanco 4,21274.09%1,24421.88%2294.03%2,96852.21%5,685
Borden 33090.41%318.49%41.10%29981.92%365
Bosque 6,33980.58%1,27816.25%2503.17%5,06164.33%7,867
Bowie 24,92472.03%8,83825.54%8402.43%16,08646.49%34,602
Brazoria 72,79160.07%43,20035.65%5,1904.28%29,59124.42%121,181
Brazos 38,73857.64%23,12134.40%5,3527.96%15,61723.24%67,211
Brewster 2,07748.85%1,87344.05%3027.10%2044.80%4,252
Briscoe 62584.92%9112.36%202.72%53472.56%736
Brooks 61323.61%1,93774.61%461.78%-1,324-51.00%2,596
Brown 12,01785.68%1,62111.56%3882.76%10,39674.12%14,026
Burleson 5,31676.38%1,49121.42%1532.20%3,82554.96%6,960
Burnet 14,63876.22%3,79719.77%7694.01%10,84156.45%19,204
Caldwell 6,69154.94%4,79539.37%6925.69%1,89615.57%12,178
Calhoun 4,63866.50%2,11830.37%2183.13%2,52036.13%6,974
Callahan 4,86587.20%56910.20%1452.60%4,29677.00%5,579
Cameron 29,47231.80%59,40264.10%3,7914.10%-29,930-32.30%92,665
Camp 3,20170.48%1,26027.74%811.78%1,94142.74%4,542
Carson 2,62088.39%2498.40%953.21%2,37179.99%2,964
Cass 9,72678.79%2,39119.37%2271.84%7,33559.42%12,344
Castro 1,41470.81%52626.34%572.85%88844.47%1,997
Chambers 13,33979.23%2,94817.51%5493.26%10,39161.72%16,836
Cherokee 12,91976.94%3,46920.66%4022.40%9,45056.28%16,790
Childress 1,80286.47%25312.14%291.39%1,54974.33%2,084
Clay 4,37787.23%53610.68%1052.09%3,84176.55%5,018
Cochran 67975.36%19021.09%323.55%48954.27%901
Coke 1,26588.90%1409.84%181.26%1,12579.06%1,423
Coleman 3,17787.21%38810.65%782.14%2,78976.56%3,643
Collin 201,01455.16%140,62438.59%22,7926.25%60,39016.57%364,430
Collingsworth 98385.03%14512.54%282.43%83872.49%1,156
Colorado 6,32574.30%1,98723.34%2012.36%4,33850.96%8,513
Comal 45,13672.59%14,23822.90%2,8044.51%30,89849.69%62,178
Comanche 4,33382.74%78915.07%1152.19%3,54467.67%5,237
Concho 88582.87%14813.86%353.27%73769.01%1,068
Cooke 13,18182.61%2,35214.74%4222.65%10,82967.87%15,955
Coryell 12,22566.98%5,06427.74%9645.28%7,16139.24%18,253
Cottle 50682.68%9215.03%142.29%41467.65%612
Crane 1,04975.79%29921.60%362.61%75054.19%1,384
Crockett 98070.25%37226.67%433.08%60843.58%1,395
Crosby 1,18168.34%46827.08%794.58%71341.26%1,728
Culberson 28036.51%45459.19%334.30%-174-22.68%767
Dallam 1,26181.67%22214.38%613.95%1,03967.29%1,544
Dallas 262,94534.34%461,08060.22%41,6575.44%-198,135-25.88%765,682
Dawson 2,63673.98%83523.44%922.58%1,80150.54%3,563
Deaf Smith 2,91169.05%1,18528.11%1202.84%1,72640.94%4,216
Delta 1,83680.49%40017.54%451.97%1,43662.95%2,281
Denton 170,60357.13%110,89037.13%17,1525.74%59,71320.00%298,645
DeWitt 5,51980.64%1,16316.99%1622.37%4,35663.65%6,844
Dickens 75583.06%12814.08%262.86%62768.98%909
Dimmit 97430.20%2,17367.38%782.42%-1,199-37.18%3,225
Donley 1,22583.62%19113.04%493.34%1,03470.58%1,465
Duval 1,31631.57%2,78366.77%691.66%-1,467-35.20%4,168
Eastland 6,01186.33%77611.14%1762.53%5,23575.19%6,963
Ector 25,02068.49%10,24928.06%1,2613.45%14,77140.43%36,530
Edwards 74669.52%30328.24%242.24%44341.28%1,073
Ellis 44,94170.10%16,25325.35%2,9164.55%28,68844.75%64,110
El Paso 55,51225.71%147,84368.47%12,5675.82%-92,331-42.76%215,922
Erath 11,21080.69%2,16015.55%5233.76%9,05065.14%13,893
Falls 3,44165.57%1,68432.09%1232.34%1,75733.48%5,248
Fannin 9,54879.28%2,13217.70%3643.02%7,41661.57%12,044
Fayette 8,74378.24%2,14419.19%2872.57%6,59959.05%11,174
Fisher 1,26573.16%40323.31%613.53%86249.85%1,729
Floyd 1,47475.24%43522.21%502.55%1,03953.03%1,959
Foard 38374.66%11322.03%173.31%27052.63%513
Fort Bend 117,29144.76%134,68651.39%10,0893.85%-17,395-6.63%262,066
Franklin 3,58581.85%66515.18%1302.97%2,92066.67%4,380
Freestone 6,02678.42%1,47119.14%1872.44%4,55559.28%7,684
Frio 1,85642.18%2,44455.55%1002.27%-588-13.37%4,400
Gaines 3,90784.57%59712.92%1162.51%3,31071.65%4,620
Galveston 73,75760.01%43,65835.52%5,4884.47%30,09924.49%122,903
Garza 1,22582.55%23015.50%291.95%99567.05%1,484
Gillespie 10,44679.05%2,28817.31%4803.64%8,15861.74%13,214
Glasscock 55391.56%345.63%172.81%51985.93%604
Goliad 2,62070.66%97326.24%1153.10%1,64744.42%3,708
Gonzales 4,58772.25%1,57124.74%1913.01%3,01647.51%6,349
Gray 6,50087.78%7019.47%2042.75%5,79978.31%7,405
Grayson 35,32574.50%10,30121.72%1,7903.78%25,02452.78%47,416
Gregg 28,76468.90%11,67727.97%1,3083.13%17,08740.93%41,749
Grimes 7,06574.11%2,19423.01%2742.88%4,87151.10%9,533
Guadalupe 36,63263.02%18,39131.64%3,1005.34%18,24131.38%58,123
Hale 6,36671.87%2,10123.72%3914.41%4,26548.15%8,858
Hall 89381.85%16415.03%343.12%72966.82%1,091
Hamilton 3,06084.53%47913.23%812.24%2,58171.30%3,620
Hansford 1,73088.85%1718.78%462.37%1,55980.07%1,947
Hardeman 1,20779.78%24916.46%573.76%95863.32%1,513
Hardin 19,60686.07%2,78012.20%3941.73%16,82673.87%22,780
Harris 545,95541.61%707,91453.95%58,2434.44%-161,959-12.34%1,312,112
Harrison 18,74970.62%7,15126.94%6482.44%11,59843.68%26,548
Hartley 1,73088.63%1738.86%492.51%1,55779.77%1,952
Haskell 1,40379.27%31417.74%532.99%1,08961.53%1,770
Hays 33,82646.87%33,22446.04%5,1147.09%6020.83%72,164
Hemphill 1,46285.80%18110.62%613.58%1,28175.18%1,704
Henderson 23,65078.72%5,66918.87%7262.41%17,98159.85%30,045
Hidalgo 48,64227.89%118,80968.12%6,9573.99%-70,167-40.23%174,408
Hill 10,10877.93%2,54719.64%3152.43%7,56158.29%12,970
Hockley 5,80979.46%1,26017.23%2423.31%4,54962.23%7,311
Hood 21,38281.42%4,00815.26%8723.32%17,37466.16%26,262
Hopkins 10,70779.09%2,51018.54%3212.37%8,19760.55%13,538
Houston 6,20574.28%1,97823.68%1702.04%4,22750.60%8,353
Howard 6,63776.09%1,77020.29%3163.62%4,86755.80%8,723
Hudspeth 50357.75%32437.20%445.05%17920.55%871
Hunt 23,91075.77%6,39620.27%1,2483.96%17,51455.50%31,554
Hutchinson 7,04286.35%85410.47%2593.18%6,18875.88%8,155
Irion 66086.16%9011.75%162.09%57074.41%766
Jack 2,97388.75%3149.37%631.88%2,65979.38%3,350
Jackson 4,26680.46%90417.05%1322.49%3,36263.41%5,302
Jasper 10,60979.06%2,59019.30%2201.64%8,01959.76%13,419
Jeff Davis 69558.35%42235.43%746.22%27322.92%1,191
Jefferson 42,86248.92%42,44348.44%2,3132.64%4190.48%87,618
Jim Hogg 43020.29%1,63577.16%542.55%-1,205-56.87%2,119
Jim Wells 5,42043.78%6,69454.08%2652.14%-1,274-10.30%12,379
Johnson 44,38277.04%10,98819.07%2,2363.89%33,39457.97%57,606
Jones 4,81980.86%93615.70%2053.44%3,88365.16%5,960
Karnes 2,96570.63%1,14527.27%882.10%1,82043.36%4,198
Kaufman 29,58771.70%10,27824.91%1,4003.39%19,30946.79%41,265
Kendall 15,70077.40%3,64317.96%9404.64%12,05759.44%20,283
Kenedy 8445.16%9953.23%31.61%-15-8.07%186
Kent 36082.95%5913.59%153.46%30169.36%434
Kerr 17,72776.09%4,68120.09%8893.82%13,04656.00%23,297
Kimble 1,69786.94%20610.55%492.51%1,49176.39%1,952
King 14993.71%53.14%53.15%14490.57%159
Kinney 93665.45%45832.03%362.52%47833.42%1,430
Kleberg 4,36745.55%4,71649.19%5045.26%-349-3.64%9,587
Knox 1,07878.86%24718.07%423.07%83160.79%1,367
Lamar 14,56177.81%3,58319.15%5703.04%10,97858.66%18,714
Lamb 3,11177.87%77119.30%1132.83%2,34058.57%3,995
Lampasas 6,38577.82%1,48318.07%3374.11%4,90259.75%8,205
La Salle 87242.35%1,12954.83%582.82%-257-12.48%2,059
Lavaca 7,34784.79%1,17013.50%1481.71%6,17771.29%8,665
Lee 4,99776.20%1,37220.92%1892.88%3,62555.28%6,558
Leon 6,39185.91%90912.22%1391.87%5,48273.69%7,439
Liberty 18,89277.85%4,86220.04%5132.11%14,03057.81%24,267
Limestone 5,79674.89%1,77822.97%1652.14%4,01851.92%7,739
Lipscomb 1,15987.01%13510.14%382.85%1,02476.87%1,332
Live Oak 3,46480.52%74217.25%962.23%2,72263.27%4,302
Llano 8,29979.44%1,82517.47%3233.09%6,47461.97%10,447
Loving 5889.23%46.15%34.62%5483.08%65
Lubbock 65,65166.31%28,02328.30%5,3395.39%37,62838.01%99,013
Lynn 1,54676.95%40320.06%602.99%1,14356.89%2,009
Madison 3,35178.13%88120.54%571.33%2,47057.59%4,289
Marion 2,98370.39%1,16527.49%902.12%1,81842.90%4,238
Martin 1,45582.58%26615.10%412.32%1,18967.48%1,762
Mason 1,65680.51%35417.21%472.28%1,30263.30%2,057
Matagorda 8,36668.60%3,50028.70%3302.70%4,86639.90%12,196
Maverick 2,81620.72%10,39776.52%3752.76%-7,581-55.80%13,588
McCulloch 2,55282.24%48215.53%692.23%2,07066.71%3,103
McLennan 48,26061.03%27,06334.22%3,7524.75%21,19726.81%79,075
McMullen 45490.98%408.02%51.00%41482.96%499
Medina 12,08570.07%4,63426.87%5273.06%7,45143.20%17,246
Menard 68278.94%15417.82%283.24%52861.12%864
Midland 36,97375.13%10,02520.37%2,2144.50%26,94854.76%49,212
Milam 6,36473.45%2,05123.67%2492.88%4,31349.78%8,664
Mills 1,95186.90%24310.82%512.28%1,70876.08%2,245
Mitchell 1,78081.06%35416.12%622.82%1,42664.94%2,196
Montague 7,52687.47%88510.29%1932.24%6,64177.18%8,604
Montgomery 150,31473.00%45,83522.26%9,7554.74%104,47950.74%205,904
Moore 3,97775.26%1,09820.78%2093.96%2,87954.48%5,284
Morris 3,44669.29%1,42528.65%1022.06%2,02140.64%4,973
Motley 56692.03%406.50%91.47%52685.53%615
Nacogdoches 14,77165.29%6,84630.26%1,0054.45%7,92535.03%22,622
Navarro 11,99472.99%4,00224.35%4372.66%7,99248.64%16,433
Newton 4,28877.48%1,15620.89%901.63%3,13256.59%5,534
Nolan 3,55273.13%1,02921.19%2765.68%2,52351.94%4,857
Nueces 50,76648.62%49,19847.12%4,4414.26%1,5681.50%104,405
Ochiltree 2,62887.54%2749.13%1003.33%2,35478.41%3,002
Oldham 85089.19%788.18%252.63%77281.01%953
Orange 25,51379.73%5,73517.92%7522.35%19,77861.81%32,000
Palo Pinto 8,28480.66%1,70816.63%2782.71%6,57664.03%10,270
Panola 8,44581.08%1,83517.62%1361.30%6,61063.46%10,416
Parker 46,47381.79%8,34414.69%2,0003.52%38,12967.10%56,817
Parmer 1,91577.66%48519.67%662.67%1,43057.99%2,466
Pecos 2,46858.97%1,55437.13%1633.90%91421.84%4,185
Polk 15,17676.45%4,18721.09%4892.46%10,98955.36%19,852
Potter 19,63068.09%7,65726.56%1,5445.35%11,97341.53%28,831
Presidio 65229.53%1,45866.03%984.44%-806-36.50%2,208
Rains 3,96884.41%62813.36%1052.23%3,34071.05%4,701
Randall 43,46280.03%8,36715.41%2,4764.56%35,09564.62%54,305
Reagan 70978.43%16718.47%283.10%54259.96%904
Real 1,38282.21%26215.59%372.20%1,12066.62%1,681
Red River 3,92676.07%1,14922.26%861.67%2,77753.81%5,161
Reeves 1,41744.50%1,65952.10%1083.40%-242-7.60%3,184
Refugio 1,83062.08%1,03435.07%842.85%79627.01%2,948
Roberts 52494.58%203.61%101.81%50490.97%554
Robertson 4,66866.35%2,20331.31%1642.34%2,46535.04%7,035
Rockwall 28,45170.81%9,65524.03%2,0745.16%18,79646.78%40,180
Runnels 3,25085.93%45311.98%792.09%2,79773.95%3,782
Rusk 14,67576.70%3,93520.57%5242.73%10,74056.13%19,134
Sabine 3,99885.96%61413.20%390.84%3,38472.76%4,651
San Augustine 2,62273.47%91025.50%371.03%1,71247.97%3,569
San Jacinto 8,05977.92%2,03819.70%2462.38%6,02158.22%10,343
San Patricio 13,03060.17%7,87136.35%7553.48%5,15923.82%21,656
San Saba 2,02585.91%29312.43%391.66%1,73273.48%2,357
Schleicher 82177.53%20819.64%302.83%61357.89%1,059
Scurry 4,41083.02%73313.80%1693.18%3,67769.22%5,312
Shackelford 1,37891.62%1036.85%231.53%1,27584.77%1,504
Shelby 7,17979.01%1,75819.35%1491.64%5,42159.66%9,086
Sherman 80786.31%9610.27%323.42%71176.04%935
Smith 58,93069.52%22,30026.31%3,5384.17%36,63043.21%84,768
Somervell 3,20682.27%54113.88%1503.85%2,66568.39%3,897
Starr 2,22418.94%9,28979.12%2271.94%-7,065-60.18%11,740
Stephens 3,03487.44%34810.03%882.53%2,68677.41%3,470
Sterling 54986.73%7011.06%142.21%47975.67%633
Stonewall 55579.17%13519.26%111.57%42059.91%701
Sutton 1,07575.92%31322.10%281.98%76253.82%1,416
Swisher 1,67175.82%46220.96%713.22%1,20954.86%2,204
Tarrant 345,92151.74%288,39243.14%34,2015.12%57,5298.60%668,514
Taylor 33,25072.66%10,08522.04%2,4245.30%23,16550.62%45,759
Terrell 28865.75%14031.96%102.29%14833.79%438
Terry 2,45973.29%75322.44%1434.27%1,70650.85%3,355
Throckmorton 71588.49%8410.40%91.11%63178.09%808
Titus 6,51169.13%2,59727.57%3113.30%3,91441.56%9,419
Tom Green 27,49471.45%9,17323.84%1,8124.71%18,32147.61%38,479
Travis 127,20927.14%308,26065.77%33,2517.09%-181,051-38.63%468,720
Trinity 4,73779.15%1,15419.28%941.57%3,58359.87%5,985
Tyler 6,62482.63%1,24815.57%1441.80%5,37667.06%8,016
Upshur 13,20982.49%2,38014.86%4242.65%10,82967.63%16,013
Upton 1,00774.76%28621.23%544.01%72153.53%1,347
Uvalde 4,83553.94%3,86743.14%2622.92%96810.80%8,964
Val Verde 5,89043.25%6,96451.14%7635.61%-1,074-7.89%13,617
Van Zandt 18,47384.39%2,79912.79%6182.82%15,67471.60%21,890
Victoria 21,27567.92%8,86628.30%1,1833.78%12,40939.62%31,324
Walker 12,88465.08%6,09130.77%8214.15%6,79334.31%19,796
Waller 10,53162.74%5,74834.25%5053.01%4,78328.49%16,784
Ward 2,54773.93%78322.73%1153.34%1,76451.20%3,445
Washington 10,94573.79%3,38222.80%5053.41%7,56350.99%14,832
Webb 12,94722.48%42,30773.47%2,3314.05%-29,360-50.99%57,585
Wharton 10,14968.89%4,23828.77%3452.34%5,91140.12%14,732
Wheeler 2,08790.50%1948.41%251.09%1,89382.09%2,306
Wichita 27,63172.49%8,77023.01%1,7184.50%18,86149.48%38,119
Wilbarger 3,16677.13%80919.71%1303.16%2,35757.42%4,105
Willacy 1,54730.36%3,42267.16%1262.48%-1,875-36.80%5,095
Williamson 104,17550.90%84,46841.27%16,0167.83%19,7079.63%204,659
Wilson 13,99872.17%4,79024.70%6073.13%9,20847.47%19,395
Winkler 1,40374.79%42022.39%532.82%98352.40%1,876
Wise 20,67083.43%3,41213.77%6942.80%17,25869.66%24,776
Wood 15,70083.84%2,63014.04%3972.12%13,07069.80%18,727
Yoakum 1,79778.03%42618.50%803.47%1,37159.53%2,303
Young 6,60185.65%87611.37%2302.98%5,72574.28%7,707
Zapata 1,02932.75%2,06365.66%501.59%-1,034-32.91%3,142
Zavala 69420.44%2,63677.62%661.94%-1,942-57.18%3,396
Totals4,685,04752.09%3,877,86843.12%430,9404.79%807,1798.97%8,993,855
County Flips: Democratic Hold Flip Republican Hold Flip Texas County Flips 2016.svg
County Flips:
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Trump won 22 of 36 congressional districts, while Clinton won 14, including three held by Republicans [31]

DistrictTrumpClintonRepresentative
1st 72%25% Louie Gohmert
2nd 52%43% Ted Poe
3rd 54%40% Sam Johnson
4th 75%22% John Ratcliffe
5th 63%34% Jeb Hensarling
6th 54%42% Joe Barton
7th 47%48% John Culberson
8th 72%24% Kevin Brady
9th 18%79% Al Green
10th 52%43% Michael McCaul
11th 78%19% Mike Conaway
12th 62%33% Kay Granger
13th 80%17% Mac Thornberry
14th 58%38% Randy Weber
15th 40%56% Rubén Hinojosa
Vicente Gonzalez
16th 27%67% Beto O'Rourke
17th 56%38% Bill Flores
18th 20%76% Sheila Jackson Lee
19th 72%23% Randy Neugebauer
Jodey Arrington
20th 34%60% Joaquín Castro
21st 52%42% Lamar Smith
22nd 52%44% Pete Olson
23rd 46%49% Will Hurd
24th 51%43% Kenny Marchant
25th 55%40% Roger Williams
26th 60%34% Michael Burgess
27th 60%36% Blake Farenthold
28th 38%58% Henry Cuellar
29th 25%71% Gene Green
30th 18%79% Eddie Bernice Johnson
31st 53%40% John Carter
32nd 47%48% Pete Sessions
33rd 24%73% Marc Veasey
34th 38%59% Filemon Vela Jr.
35th 30%64% Lloyd Doggett
36th 72%25% Brian Babin

Analysis

While he continued the Republican 10-cycle winning streak in Texas, [32] Trump's winning margin was down from Mitt Romney's 15.79% in 2012 to 8.99%, a 6.80% drop, making 2016 the closest Democrats had come to winning Texas since 1996 (though the Democrats also received a smaller percentage of the vote in Texas in this election than in the 2008 presidential election). The surge in Democratic votes can partly be attributed to a growing population of Hispanics/Latinos, Trump's relatively weak performance with college-educated white voters, and the growth of cities and their respective suburbs in the Texas Triangle region, which are heavily populated with both college-educated voters and minorities and thus swung more Democratic compared to 2012. [33] These were Clinton's main sources of votes. She swept the Rio Grande region counties, such as El Paso, Webb, Hidalgo and Cameron as they have sizable Hispanic populations. Clinton scored a 38-point sweep in Travis County, home to the state capital and heavily liberal city of Austin, the best Democratic performance in the county since 1964. She became the first Democrat to break 60% of the vote in Dallas County since 1944. Furthermore, she outperformed Obama in the minority-heavy counties of Bexar (San Antonio) and Harris County (Houston), shifting his slim victories into double-digit leads. [34] In fact, the Presidential vote in Texas' 7th Congressional District, which includes Houston's inner-west suburbs, had the biggest change in margin towards Clinton compared to Obama's 2012 performance outside of Utah, shifting 23 points left. [35] Clinton also won suburban Fort Bend County for the first time since Texas native Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, which was attributed to the county's large immigrant population and negative perception of Trump by female Republican voters. [36] While Clinton didn't win suburban counties such as Denton County, Williamson County, Collin County, or Hays County, her margin of defeat was much narrower than other Democratic presidential nominees. [37] Places that had large numbers of young voters in the state were a stronghold for Clinton as well. [38] Texas Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick suggested that Trump's relatively small margin of victory could have been largely due to many moderate Republican voters who had supported Romney in 2012 staying home. In an interview conducted the morning after the election, Patrick said in reference to these voters, "Had they turned out, he would've been in the low teens". [39]

In total, Clinton beat Trump in 27 counties by a total of 883,819 votes, and had the best percentage performance than any other Democrat running statewide. Conversely, Trump, who won 227 of the state's 254 counties, got the smallest percentage of the vote of all Republicans running in the state. [40]

As of the 2024 election, this is the most recent election where Frio, Jim Wells, Kenedy, Kleberg, La Salle, Reeves, Val Verde, and Zapata counties have voted Democratic, as rural Hispanic-majority South Texas has trended heavily Republican in the two elections since, and the most recent election where Hays County has voted Republican.

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Trump and Pence earned 38 pledged electoral votes, but Trump lost two and Pence lost one due to faithless electors. Bill Greene voted for Ron Paul (who was not a candidate) for president and Mike Pence (who was on the Republican ticket) as vice president, while Christopher Suprun voted for John Kasich for president and Carly Fiorina for vice president (both not candidates). [2] [3]

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References

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