2016 United States Senate election in Illinois

Last updated

2016 United States Senate election in Illinois
Flag of Illinois.svg
  2010 November 8, 2016 2022  
Turnout68.39%
  Tammy Duckworth, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg Senator Mark Kirk official portrait crop.jpg
Nominee Tammy Duckworth Mark Kirk
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote3,012,9402,184,693
Percentage54.86%39.78%

2016 United States Senate election in Illinois results map by county.svg
2016 Illinois US Senate election results map by Congressional District.svg
Map of the township level results of the 2016 United States Senate election in the State of Illinois.svg
IL Senate 2016.svg
Duckworth:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%
Kirk:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
No vote:          

U.S. senator before election

Mark Kirk
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Tammy Duckworth
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Illinois was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Illinois, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Prior to the election, incumbent senator Mark Kirk (R) was considered to be the most vulnerable senator among those seeking re-election in 2016 [1] [2] due to Illinois's heavy Democratic partisan balance; news networks and analysts expected a Democratic pickup.

Party primary elections were held on March 15, 2016. Kirk lost re-election to a second full term [3] to Tammy Duckworth, the U.S. representative from Illinois's 8th congressional district and a decorated combat veteran of the Iraq War. Duckworth became the first woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois since fellow Democrat Carol Moseley Braun in 1992. Despite his loss, Kirk outperformed Trump in the concurrent presidential election by around 2 percent.

Background

In 2010, Republican Mark Kirk was elected to the Senate for Illinois, defeating Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias by 59,220 votes out of more than 3.7 million votes cast.

Kirk suffered a severe stroke in January 2012 that kept him away from the Senate until January 2013. [4] In June 2013 he confirmed that he was "planning" to run for re-election, [5] [6] but there was speculation that he might retire, [7] particularly in the wake of the departure of several of his senior staff. [8] [9] Republican Bruce Rauner was elected governor in 2014, and a possible scenario was that Kirk would resign early, allowing Rauner to appoint another Republican as the replacement. [10] Potential replacements included U.S. Representatives Bob Dold, Adam Kinzinger, Aaron Schock, and Peter Roskam, State Senators Jason Barickman and Christine Radogno, hedge fund manager and founder and CEO of Citadel LLC Kenneth C. Griffin, and businesswoman Beth Christie. [7] [9] In November 2014, Kirk reiterated that he was going to run for re-election. [3]

Kirk was identified by The Washington Post , The New York Times , Politico , The Huffington Post , Slate and Roll Call as one of the most vulnerable Republican senators up for re-election in 2016. [11] [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]

For the primary election, turnout was 41.94%, with 3,215,334 votes cast. [17] [18] For the general election, turnout was 68.39%, with 5,491,878 votes cast. [19] [18]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • James Marter, businessman [20]

Removed from ballot

Withdrawn

  • Ron Wallace, investment advisor, conservative activist and economics professor [23] [24]

Declined

Endorsements

Mark Kirk

State politicians

Newspapers

James Marter

Individuals

Organizations

  • ALIPAC (Americans for Legal Immigration PAC) [40]
  • Chicago 11th Ward Republican Party [41]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk
James
Marter
Undecided
Chicago Tribune [42] March 2–6, 2016600± 4.1%65%22%12%
SIU Simon Institute [43] February 15–20, 2016306± 5.6%53%14%33%

Results

Results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Kirk--70-80%
Kirk--60-70%
Kirk--50-60% Illinois Senate Republican primary, 2016.svg
Results by county
  Kirk—70–80%
  Kirk—60–70%
  Kirk—50–60%
Republican primary results [44]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Mark Kirk (incumbent) 931,619 70.6
Republican James T. Marter388,57129.4
Total votes1,320,190 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Tammy Duckworth

U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Andrea Zopp

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tammy
Duckworth
Andrea
Zopp
Napoleon
Harris
Undecided
SIU Simon Institute [43] February 15–20, 2016422± 4.7%52%6%4%37%
Public Policy Polling [85] July 20–21, 2015409± 4.9%59%10%31%

Results

Results by county
Duckworth--80-90%
Duckworth--70-80%
Duckworth--60-70%
Duckworth--50-60% Illinois Senate Democratic primary, 2016.svg
Results by county
  Duckworth—80–90%
  Duckworth—70–80%
  Duckworth—60–70%
  Duckworth—50–60%
Democratic primary results [86]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 1,220,128 64.38%
Democratic Andrea Zopp455,72924.05%
Democratic Napoleon Harris 219,28611.57%
Total votes1,859,257 100.00%

Third party candidates

On July 6, the Green Party candidate and the Libertarian Party candidate were announced as having made the ballot for November after no objections were filed against their petitions. However, objections against two others were filed, namely the Constitution Party candidate Chad Koppie, due to his name being on a petition slate with Constitution Party presidential candidate Darrell Castle, who turned in fewer than the required petitions needed, [87] and against Independent candidate Eric Conklin. Neither Koppie nor Conklin were likely to receive ballot access after a review of their petitions. [88] [89]

Constitution Party (C) (write in)

Libertarian Party (L)

Green Party (G)

Independent (I)

General election

Debates

DatesLocationKirkDuckworthLink
October 3, 2016 Chicago, Illinois ParticipantParticipant [91]
October 27, 2016 Springfield, Illinois ParticipantParticipant [92]
November 4, 2016 Chicago, Illinois ParticipantParticipant [93]

Campaign

Kirk had multiple factors working against him, as no Republican had won an Illinois US Senate race during a presidential election year since 1972, and he had made a number of gaffes during the campaign. He had exaggerated his Iraq War record on his campaign website, [94] and during a debate, Kirk made a racially charged remark about Duckworth's familial military background. [95] Additionally, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump was unpopular in Chicago and its suburbs, and Kirk refused to endorse or vote for him, instead writing in former United States Secretary of State Colin Powell. [96] Kirk also had a mostly liberal voting record in the Senate, favoring gay marriage, an assault weapons ban, and he had voted against defunding and repealing portions of Obamacare in 2015. Due to these factors, Kirk alienated the Democratic, Independent, and Republican voters whom he had previously won over in his 2010 campaign. Unusually, the normally Republican-leaning editorial board of the Chicago Tribune endorsed Duckworth, as they believed that the health problems that Kirk had suffered as a result of his stroke made him a less effective Senator. [97] This election had been cited as historic as both major party nominees had physical disabilities. [98]

Endorsements

Mark Kirk (R)

Governors

U.S. Representatives

U.S. Senators

State Representatives

State officials

Mayors

Individuals

Newspapers

Organizations

Tammy Duckworth (D)

U.S. Presidents

U.S. Vice Presidents

U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Labor unions

Newspapers

Organizations

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [123] Lean D (flip)November 2, 2016
Inside Elections [124] Lean D (flip)November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [125] Likely D (flip)November 7, 2016
Daily Kos [126] Safe D (flip)November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [127] Likely D (flip)November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Tammy
Duckworth (D)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [128] November 1–7, 20161,823± 4.6%39%56%5%
SurveyMonkey [129] October 31 – November 6, 20161,505± 4.6%39%56%5%
SurveyMonkey [130] October 28 – November 3, 20161,120± 4.6%40%54%6%
SurveyMonkey [131] October 27 – November 2, 2016997± 4.6%40%55%5%
SurveyMonkey [132] October 26 – November 1, 2016911± 4.6%39%55%6%
SurveyMonkey [133] October 25–31, 20161,003± 4.6%38%57%5%
Emerson College [134] October 27–30, 2016500± 4.3%36%54%5%5%
Loras College [135] October 26–27, 2016600± 4.0%34%42%6%18%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research [136] October 16–18, 20161,200± 2.8%39%50%3%8%
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) [137] October 4–5, 2016600± 4.0%37%41%6%16%
Southern Illinois University [138] Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016865± 3.3%34%48%8%10%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) [139] September 27–29, 2016600± 4.0%37%46%17%
Emerson College [140] September 19–20, 2016700± 3.6%39%41%11%9%
Loras College [141] September 13–16, 2016600± 4.0%36%41%22%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) [142] August 1–4, 2016800± 3.5%37%44%19%
The Illinois Poll - Victory Research [143] July 14–16, 20161,200± 2.8%37%46%4%12%
Normington, Petts and Associates (D) [142] July 11–14, 2016800± 3.5%38%40%22%
Basswood Research (R) [144] July 11–12, 2016800± 3.5%42%40%18%
GS Strategy Group (R-Kirk) [145] March 30–31, 2016600± 4.0%40%43%17%
End Citizens United [146] September 10–14, 2015948± 3.2%41%45%14%
Public Policy Polling [85] July 20–21, 2015931± 3.2%36%42%22%
Ogden & Fry [147] June 23, 2015598± 4.1%27%44%29%
We Ask America [148] December 18, 20141,003± 3.0%45%46%9%
Hypothetical polling

with Andrea Zopp

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Andrea
Zopp (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [85] July 20–21, 2015931± 3.2%38%29%32%

with Lisa Madigan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Lisa
Madigan (D)
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [149] November 22–25, 2013557± 4.2%41%41%19%

with Michelle Obama

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Michelle
Obama (D)
Undecided
Gravis Marketing [150] March 21–22, 2014806± 3.0%47%42%11%
Public Policy Polling [151] November 26–28, 2012500± 4.4%40%51%9%

with Pat Quinn

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Kirk (R)
Pat
Quinn (D)
Undecided
We Ask America [148] December 18, 20141,003± 3.0%55%36%9%

Results

The result was a landslide victory for Tammy Duckworth. Pre-election polling showed Kirk would be easily defeated by Duckworth, and the polls were proven right when Duckworth was declared the winner quickly after polls closed in Illinois. Duckworth performed extremely well in the heavily populated and strongly Democratic Cook County, home of Chicago. Duckworth also did well in Champaign, East St. Louis and Carbondale. Kirk did do well in rural parts of the state, but it was nowhere near enough to offset his weakness in the Chicago metropolitan area. The Chicago 'collar counties' — among them Kirk's home county of Lake County — previously voted for Kirk, but easily flipped to Duckworth. Duckworth was sworn in at 12:00 P.M. EST on January 3, 2017. The Libertarian and Green candidates polled well, winning three and two percent of the vote respectively.

United States Senate election in Illinois, 2016 [152]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tammy Duckworth 3,012,940 54.86% +8.44%
Republican Mark Kirk (incumbent)2,184,69239.78%−8.23%
Libertarian Kenton McMillen175,9883.21%+0.85%
Green Scott Summers117,6192.14%−1.04%
Write-in 6390.01%-0.02%
Total votes5,491,878 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Duckworth won 12 of 18 districts, including one that elected a Republican.

DistrictDuckworthKirkRepresentative
1st 74.4%21% Bobby Rush
2nd 77.2%18.7% Robin Kelly
3rd 55.6%38% Dan Lipinski
4th 76.9%14.6% Luis Gutierrez
5th 63.8%30.9% Mike Quigley
6th 44.2%50.2% Peter Roskam
7th 81.5%14.6% Danny K. Davis
8th 55.9%38.2% Tammy Duckworth
Raja Krishnamoorthi
9th 63%32.5% Jan Schakowsky
10th 53.3%42.2% Robert Dold
Brad Schneider
11th 56.6%37.3% Bill Foster
12th 52%43.2% Mike Bost
13th 46.7%47.2% Rodney Davis
14th 42.5%50.8% Randy Hultgren
15th 33%61.7% John Shimkus
16th 39.3%53.9% Adam Kinzinger
17th 47.7%46.3% Cheri Bustos
18th 35%59.8% Darin LaHood

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