2016 Missouri gubernatorial election

Last updated

2016 Missouri gubernatorial election
Flag of Missouri.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
  Eric Greitens 2011-7.jpg Chris Koster official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Eric Greitens Chris Koster
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,433,3971,277,360
Percentage51.14%45.57%

2016 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
Mo 2016 gov cd.svg
MO Governor 2016.svg
Greitens:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Koster:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elected Governor

Eric Greitens
Republican

The 2016 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

The primaries were held on August 2. Incumbent Democratic governor Jay Nixon was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term in office. [1] State Attorney General Chris Koster and businessman, author and former U.S. Navy SEAL Eric Greitens won the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively. [2] [3] On election day, November 8, 2016, the Associated Press declared Greitens the winner of the election, and Koster conceded shortly after. [4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster
Eric
Morrison
Leonard
Steinman
Charles
Wheeler
OtherUndecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [17] July 23–27, 2016400± 5.0%73%3%1%8%15%
SurveyUSA [18] July 20–24, 2016500± 4.4%57%7%3%7%26%

Results

Results by county:
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Koster
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2016 Missouri gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Koster
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Chris Koster 256,272 78.75%
Democratic Eric Morrison31,4749.67%
Democratic Charles Wheeler 25,7567.92%
Democratic Leonard Steinman11,9113.66%
Total votes325,413 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Deceased

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

John Brunner
Eric Greitens
Catherine Hanaway
Peter Kinder

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Brunner
Eric
Greitens
Catherine
Hanaway
Peter
Kinder
Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [17] July 23–27, 2016400± 5.0%23%21%21%18%17%
SurveyUSA [18] July 20–24, 2016773± 3.6%21%25%18%18%18%
OnMessage Inc. [57] July 17–18, 2016500± 4.4%23%21%25%19%12%
Public Policy Polling [58] July 11–12, 2016462± 3.2%16%24%22%15%23%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout [59] July 7–8, 20161,022± 3.0%22%29%16%12%21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Brunner
Catherine
Hanaway
Peter
Kinder
Tom
Schweich
Dave
Spence
OtherUndecided
Remington Research Group [60] February 2–3, 20157473.6%10%13%16%62%
12%24%15%48%
16%19%18%47%
Remington Research Group [61] January 20151,355 ?44%56%
39%37%25%

Results

Results by county:
Greitens
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Brunner
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
Kinder
30-40%
40-50%
50-60% 2016 Missouri gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Greitens
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Brunner
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Kinder
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Eric Greitens 236,481 34.56%
Republican John Brunner169,62024.79%
Republican Peter Kinder 141,62920.70%
Republican Catherine Hanaway 136,52119.95%
Total votes684,251 100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

Green Party

Candidates

Declared

Independent

Candidates

Declared
  • Les Turilli Jr., businessman [64]

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Cisse W. Spragins 3,515 100.00%
Total votes3,515 100.00%

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [66] TossupAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos [67] TossupNovember 8, 2016
Inside Elections [68] TossupNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [69] Lean R (flip)November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [70] TossupNovember 1, 2016
Governing [71] TossupNovember 4, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Chris
Koster (D)
Eric
Greitens (R)
Other/Undecided
[a]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [72] October 28 – November 1, 2016November 1, 201645.5%46.0%8.5%Greitens +0.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Eric
Greitens (R)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [73] November 1–7, 20161,368± 4.6%48%47%5%
SurveyMonkey [74] October 31–Nov 6, 20161,119± 4.6%49%46%5%
SurveyMonkey [75] October 28–Nov 3, 2016879± 4.6%49%47%4%
Public Policy Polling [76] November 1–2, 2016871± 3.4%47%44%4%6%
SurveyMonkey [77] October 27 – November 2, 2016774± 4.6%50%47%3%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [78] October 31 – November 1, 20161,722± 2.4%45%46%4%4%
DFM Research [79] October 27 – November 1, 2016508± 4.4%45%39%10%6%
SurveyMonkey [80] October 26 – November 1, 2016649± 4.6%52%46%2%
Monmouth University [81] October 28–31, 2016405± 4.9%46%46%2%5%
SurveyMonkey [82] October 25–31, 2016671± 4.6%54%44%2%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R) [83] October 27–28, 20161,698± 2.4%46%45%9%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [84] October 24–26, 2016625± 4.0%46%45%9%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [85] October 23–25, 20162,559± 1.9%47%45%4%4%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [86] October 9–11, 20162,171± 2.1%48%42%5%5%
Monmouth University [87] October 9–11, 2016406± 4.9%46%43%2%8%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [88] October 4–5, 20161,588± 2.6%44%41%5%10%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [89] September 26–27, 20161,279± 3.0%51%35%5% [90] 10%
The Tarrance Group (R-Greitens) [91] September 19–22, 2016606± 4.1%45%42%13%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [92] September 19–20, 20161,076± 3.2%47%37%4% [93] 13%
The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing [94] September 11–13, 2016604± 4.0%49%41%8%
The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing [95] September 4–6, 2016589± 4.0%47%41%3% [96] 9%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) [97] September 1–2, 20161,275± 3.0%46%42%12%
Monmouth University [98] August 19–22, 2016401± 4.9%51%40%3%6%
Remington Research Group (R) [99] August 5–6, 20161,280± 3.0%45%43%7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [100] July 23–24, 2016625± 4.0%52%33%15%
DFM Research [101] March 17–24, 2016674± 3.8%41%24%3%31%
Public Policy Polling [102] September 22–23, 2015731± 3.6%37%44%20%
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%40%34%26%
Hypothetical polling

with John Brunner

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
John
Brunner (R)
OtherUndecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [100] July 23–24, 2016625± 4.0%46%40%14%
DFM Research [101] March 17–24, 2016674± 3.8%42%28%2%28%
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%41%36%23%

with Catherine Hanaway

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Catherine
Hanaway (R)
OtherUndecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [100] July 23–24, 2016625± 4.0%52%36%12%
DFM Research [101] March 17–24, 2016674± 3.8%43%31%3%23%
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%40%36%23%
Gravius Public Polling [104] January 7–8, 2015 ?± 6%29%23%48%
Wilson Perkins Allen (R-Hanaway) [105] January 15–19, 2014700± 3.7%33%35%32%

with Peter Kinder

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Peter
Kinder (R)
OtherUndecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [100] July 23–24, 2016625± 4.0%47%46%7%
DFM Research [101] March 17–24, 2016674± 3.8%39%37%2%22%
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%37%40%24%

with Bob Dixon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Bob
Dixon (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%39%35%26%

with Bart Korman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Bart
Korman (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%39%31%30%

with Tom Schweich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Tom
Schweich (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravius Public Polling [104] January 7–8, 2015 ?± 6%30%26%44%

with Randy Asbury

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Randy
Asbury (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%40%35%25%

with Claire McCaskill

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Catherine
Hanaway (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravius Public Polling [104] January 7–8, 2015 ?± 6%19%30%51%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Tom
Schweich (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravius Public Polling [104] January 7–8, 2015 ?± 6%20%34%46%

Results

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2016 [106]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Eric Greitens 1,433,397 51.14% +8.61%
Democratic Chris Koster 1,277,36045.57%−9.20%
Libertarian Cisse Spragins41,1541.47%−1.22%
Independent Lester Benton Turilli, Jr.30,0191.07%N/A
Green Don Fitz21,0880.75%N/A
Write-in 280.00%0.00%
Total votes2,803,046 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
State Senate Districts results MO 2016 GOV STATE SENATE.svg
State Senate Districts results
State House Districts results MO 2016 GOV SH.svg
State House Districts results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Greitens won 6 of 8 congressional districts. [107]

DistrictKosterGreitensRepresentative
1st 82%16% Lacy Clay
2nd 47%51% Ann Wagner
3rd 40%57% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 39%57% Vicky Hartzler
5th 60%37% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 40%57% Sam Graves
7th 32%65% Billy Long
8th 32%65% Jason Smith

Campaign finance investigations

On April 28, 2017, the Missouri Ethics Commission fined Greitens' campaign $1,000 for violating state campaign ethics rules regarding campaign disclosure. Greitens did not contest the fine. [108]

In 2018, Missouri attorney general Josh Hawley announced the opening of an investigation of Greitens' 2016 campaign financing. [109]

On June 1, 2018, Eric Greitens resigned from office, leaving Mike Parson, his lieutenant governor, to succeed him.

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Peter Kinder</span> American lawyer and politician (born 1954)

Peter Dickson Kinder is an American lawyer and politician who served as the 46th Lieutenant Governor of Missouri from 2005 to 2017. He was appointed as a co-chairman of the Delta Regional Authority in August 2017, serving in that post until he resigned in June 2018.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Catherine Hanaway</span> American politician

Catherine Lucille Hanaway is an American attorney, former federal prosecutor and Republican candidate for Missouri Governor who served as the United States Attorney for the Eastern District of Missouri from 2005 to 2009, and as the first and only female Speaker of the Missouri House of Representatives from 2003 to 2005.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chris Koster</span> American lawyer and politician

Christopher Andrew Koster is an American lawyer and politician who served as the 41st Attorney General of Missouri from 2009 to 2017. Before that, Koster was elected three times as prosecuting attorney of Cass County, Missouri, and served four years as state senator from Missouri's 31st Senatorial district.

Jeff Roe is an American political consultant and strategist for the Republican Party. He is the founder and principal of Axiom Strategies, a political consulting firm based in Kansas City, Missouri, with twelve offices in eight states. He formerly served as a chief of staff, campaign manager, and longtime aide for United States Representative Sam Graves.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eric Greitens</span> American politician (born 1974)

Eric Robert Greitens is an American businessman, author, former politician and former Navy SEAL, who served as the 56th governor of Missouri from January 2017 until June 2018, when he resigned that month amid allegations of sexual assault and campaign finance impropriety. He is a member of the Republican Party, and was a Democrat until 2015.

The following table indicates the party of elected officials in the U.S. state of Missouri:

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 United States Senate election in Missouri</span>

The 2010 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 2, 2010, alongside 36 other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held on August 3, 2010. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Kit Bond decided to retire instead of seeking a fifth term. Republican nominee Roy Blunt won the open seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tom Schweich</span> American politician, diplomat and attorney

Thomas A. Schweich was an American politician, diplomat, attorney, and author. A member of the Republican Party, Schweich served as State Auditor of Missouri from 2011 until his death in 2015.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mike Parson</span> American politician (born 1955)

Michael Lynn Parson is an American politician serving as the 57th governor of Missouri since 2018. A member of the Republican Party, Parson assumed the governorship when Eric Greitens resigned, under whom he had served as lieutenant governor from 2017 to 2018. Parson served the remainder of Greitens's term and was elected governor in his own right in 2020.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States gubernatorial elections</span>

United States gubernatorial elections were held on November 8, 2016, in 12 states and two territories. The last regular gubernatorial elections for nine of the 12 states took place in 2012. The last gubernatorial elections for New Hampshire, Oregon, and Vermont took place in 2014, as Oregon held a special election due to the resignation of Governor John Kitzhaber, while the governors of New Hampshire and Vermont both serve two-year terms. The 2016 gubernatorial elections took place concurrently with several other federal, state, and local elections, including the presidential election, Senate, and House elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States Senate election in Missouri</span>

The 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri. It was held concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on August 2.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election</span>

The 2016 Missouri lieutenant gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the lieutenant governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Missouri Attorney General election</span>

The 2016 Missouri Attorney General election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the Attorney General of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Republican Josh Hawley defeated the Democratic nominee Teresa Hensley.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Missouri State Treasurer election</span>

The 2016 Missouri State Treasurer election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the State Treasurer of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Missouri Secretary of State election</span>

The 2016 Missouri Secretary of State election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the Missouri Secretary of State, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and those to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nicole Galloway</span> American accountant and politician (born 1982)

Nicole Marie Galloway is an American accountant and politician who served as the state auditor of Missouri from 2015 to 2023. She was the Democratic nominee for Governor of Missouri in the 2020 election, losing to incumbent Republican Mike Parson.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 United States Senate election in Missouri</span>

The 2018 United States Senate election in Missouri took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Missouri, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections, including Missouri's quadrennial State Auditor election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Missouri gubernatorial election</span>

The 2020 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Mike Parson ran for and was elected to a full term in office. Parson was elected as lieutenant governor in 2016 but became governor on June 1, 2018, after incumbent Eric Greitens resigned under threat of impeachment by the state legislature. Parson declared his bid for a full term on September 8, 2019. State Auditor Nicole Galloway, Missouri's only Democratic statewide officer and only female statewide officer, was the Democratic nominee and if elected, would have become Missouri's first female governor.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 Missouri State Auditor election</span>

On November 6, 2018, a general election in the U.S. state of Missouri was held for the post of State Auditor of Missouri. The election for Missouri State Auditor coincided with the U.S. federal midterm elections that were held throughout all 50 states, as well with other state legislative and local races in Missouri. Missouri's Class 1 United States Senate seat was also up for election on November 6, 2018.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Missouri</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent senator Roy Blunt, a Republican, did not seek a third term in office. Republican Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the open seat, defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine.

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