2016 Missouri gubernatorial election

Last updated

2016 Missouri gubernatorial election
Flag of Missouri.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  
  Eric Greitens 2011-7.jpg Chris Koster official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee Eric Greitens Chris Koster
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote1,433,3971,277,360
Percentage51.14%45.57%

2016 Missouri gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
Mo 2016 gov cd.svg
MO Governor 2016.svg
Greitens:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Koster:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

Governor before election

Jay Nixon
Democratic

Elected Governor

Eric Greitens
Republican

The 2016 Missouri gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the governor of Missouri, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Contents

The primaries were held on August 2. Incumbent Democratic governor Jay Nixon was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term in office. [1] State Attorney General Chris Koster and businessman, author and former U.S. Navy SEAL Eric Greitens won the Democratic and Republican primaries, respectively. [2] [3] On election day, November 8, 2016, the Associated Press declared Greitens the winner of the election, and Koster conceded shortly after. [4] This was the first gubernatorial election since 1968 that the winner was from a different party as the presidential candidate who won the popular vote in the concurrent election
[a] , and the first since 1940 that a Republican accomplished the feat.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster
Eric
Morrison
Leonard
Steinman
Charles
Wheeler
OtherUndecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [17] July 23–27, 2016400± 5.0%73%3%1%8%15%
SurveyUSA [18] July 20–24, 2016500± 4.4%57%7%3%7%26%

Results

Results by county:
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Koster
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90% 2016 Missouri gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Koster
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Chris Koster 256,272 78.75%
Democratic Eric Morrison31,4749.67%
Democratic Charles Wheeler 25,7567.92%
Democratic Leonard Steinman11,9113.66%
Total votes325,413 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Deceased

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

John Brunner

Indoviduals

Organizations

Eric Greitens

Individuals

Catherine Hanaway

Individuals

Newspapers

Peter Kinder

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Brunner
Eric
Greitens
Catherine
Hanaway
Peter
Kinder
Undecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [17] July 23–27, 2016400± 5.0%23%21%21%18%17%
SurveyUSA [18] July 20–24, 2016773± 3.6%21%25%18%18%18%
OnMessage Inc. [57] July 17–18, 2016500± 4.4%23%21%25%19%12%
Public Policy Polling [58] July 11–12, 2016462± 3.2%16%24%22%15%23%
Remington Research Group (R)/Missouri Scout [59] July 7–8, 20161,022± 3.0%22%29%16%12%21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Brunner
Catherine
Hanaway
Peter
Kinder
Tom
Schweich
Dave
Spence
OtherUndecided
Remington Research Group [60] February 2–3, 20157473.6%10%13%16%62%
12%24%15%48%
16%19%18%47%
Remington Research Group [61] January 20151,355?44%56%
39%37%25%

Results

Results by county:
Greitens
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Brunner
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
Kinder
30-40%
40-50%
50-60% 2016 Missouri gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Greitens
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Brunner
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Kinder
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Eric Greitens 236,481 34.56%
Republican John Brunner169,62024.79%
Republican Peter Kinder 141,62920.70%
Republican Catherine Hanaway 136,52119.95%
Total votes684,251 100.00%

Third party and independent candidates

Green Party

Candidates

Declared

Independent

Candidates

Declared
  • Les Turilli Jr., businessman [64]

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary results [19]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Cisse W. Spragins 3,515 100.00%
Total votes3,515 100.00%

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [66] TossupAugust 12, 2016
Daily Kos [67] TossupNovember 8, 2016
Inside Elections [68] TossupNovember 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [69] Lean R (flip)November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [70] TossupNovember 1, 2016
Governing [71] TossupNovember 4, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Chris
Koster (D)
Eric
Greitens (R)
Other/Undecided
[b]
Margin
Real Clear Politics [72] October 28 – November 1, 2016November 1, 201645.5%46.0%8.5%Greitens +0.5%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Eric
Greitens (R)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey [73] November 1–7, 20161,368± 4.6%48%47%5%
SurveyMonkey [74] October 31–Nov 6, 20161,119± 4.6%49%46%5%
SurveyMonkey [75] October 28–Nov 3, 2016879± 4.6%49%47%4%
Public Policy Polling [76] November 1–2, 2016871± 3.4%47%44%4%6%
SurveyMonkey [77] October 27 – November 2, 2016774± 4.6%50%47%3%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [78] October 31 – November 1, 20161,722± 2.4%45%46%4%4%
DFM Research [79] October 27 – November 1, 2016508± 4.4%45%39%10%6%
SurveyMonkey [80] October 26 – November 1, 2016649± 4.6%52%46%2%
Monmouth University [81] October 28–31, 2016405± 4.9%46%46%2%5%
SurveyMonkey [82] October 25–31, 2016671± 4.6%54%44%2%
Missouri Scout/BK Strategies (R) [83] October 27–28, 20161,698± 2.4%46%45%9%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [84] October 24–26, 2016625± 4.0%46%45%9%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [85] October 23–25, 20162,559± 1.9%47%45%4%4%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [86] October 9–11, 20162,171± 2.1%48%42%5%5%
Monmouth University [87] October 9–11, 2016406± 4.9%46%43%2%8%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [88] October 4–5, 20161,588± 2.6%44%41%5%10%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [89] September 26–27, 20161,279± 3.0%51%35%5% [90] 10%
The Tarrance Group (R-Greitens) [91] September 19–22, 2016606± 4.1%45%42%13%
The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R) [92] September 19–20, 20161,076± 3.2%47%37%4% [93] 13%
The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing [94] September 11–13, 2016604± 4.0%49%41%8%
The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing [95] September 4–6, 2016589± 4.0%47%41%3% [96] 9%
Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R) [97] September 1–2, 20161,275± 3.0%46%42%12%
Monmouth University [98] August 19–22, 2016401± 4.9%51%40%3%6%
Remington Research Group (R) [99] August 5–6, 20161,280± 3.0%45%43%7%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [100] July 23–24, 2016625± 4.0%52%33%15%
DFM Research [101] March 17–24, 2016674± 3.8%41%24%3%31%
Public Policy Polling [102] September 22–23, 2015731± 3.6%37%44%20%
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%40%34%26%
Hypothetical polling

with John Brunner

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
John
Brunner (R)
OtherUndecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [100] July 23–24, 2016625± 4.0%46%40%14%
DFM Research [101] March 17–24, 2016674± 3.8%42%28%2%28%
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%41%36%23%

with Catherine Hanaway

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Catherine
Hanaway (R)
OtherUndecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [100] July 23–24, 2016625± 4.0%52%36%12%
DFM Research [101] March 17–24, 2016674± 3.8%43%31%3%23%
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%40%36%23%
Gravius Public Polling [104] January 7–8, 2015?± 6%29%23%48%
Wilson Perkins Allen (R-Hanaway) [105] January 15–19, 2014700± 3.7%33%35%32%

with Peter Kinder

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Peter
Kinder (R)
OtherUndecided
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon [100] July 23–24, 2016625± 4.0%47%46%7%
DFM Research [101] March 17–24, 2016674± 3.8%39%37%2%22%
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%37%40%24%

with Bob Dixon

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Bob
Dixon (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%39%35%26%

with Bart Korman

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Bart
Korman (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%39%31%30%

with Tom Schweich

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Tom
Schweich (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravius Public Polling [104] January 7–8, 2015?± 6%30%26%44%

with Randy Asbury

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Chris
Koster (D)
Randy
Asbury (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [103] August 7–9, 2015859± 3.3%40%35%25%

with Claire McCaskill

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Catherine
Hanaway (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravius Public Polling [104] January 7–8, 2015?± 6%19%30%51%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Claire
McCaskill (D)
Tom
Schweich (R)
OtherUndecided
Gravius Public Polling [104] January 7–8, 2015?± 6%20%34%46%

Results

Missouri gubernatorial election, 2016 [106]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Eric Greitens 1,433,397 51.14% +8.61%
Democratic Chris Koster 1,277,36045.57%−9.20%
Libertarian Cisse Spragins41,1541.47%−1.22%
Independent Lester Benton Turilli, Jr.30,0191.07%N/A
Green Don Fitz21,0880.75%N/A
Write-in 280.00%0.00%
Total votes2,803,046 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic
State Senate districts results MO 2016 GOV STATE SENATE.svg
State Senate districts results
State House districts results MO 2016 GOV SH.svg
State House districts results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Greitens won six of eight congressional districts. [107]

DistrictKosterGreitensRepresentative
1st 78%19% Lacy Clay
2nd 47%51% Ann Wagner
3rd 40%57% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 39%57% Vicky Hartzler
5th 60%37% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 40%57% Sam Graves
7th 32%65% Billy Long
8th 32%65% Jason Smith

Campaign finance investigations

On April 28, 2017, the Missouri Ethics Commission fined Greitens' campaign $1,000 for violating state campaign ethics rules regarding campaign disclosure. Greitens did not contest the fine. [108]

In 2018, Missouri attorney general Josh Hawley announced the opening of an investigation of Greitens' 2016 campaign financing. [109]

On June 1, 2018, Greitens resigned from office, leaving Mike Parson, his lieutenant governor, to succeed him.

Notes

  1. While Hillary Clinton lost the election to Donald Trump, she won the popular vote.
  2. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

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  86. The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)
  87. Monmouth University
  88. The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)
  89. The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)
  90. Cisse Spragins (L) 3%, Lester Turilli (I) 2%
  91. The Tarrance Group (R-Greitens)
  92. The Missouri Times/Remington Research Group (R)
  93. Cisse Spragins (L) 2%, Lester Turilli (I) 2%
  94. The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing
  95. The Missouri Times/Gravis Marketing
  96. Cisse Spragins (L) 2%, Lester Turilli (I) 1%
  97. Missouri Scout/Remington Research Group (R)
  98. Monmouth University
  99. Remington Research Group (R)
  100. 1 2 3 4 St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon
  101. 1 2 3 4 DFM Research
  102. Public Policy Polling
  103. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Public Policy Polling
  104. 1 2 3 4 Gravius Public Polling
  105. Wilson Perkins Allen (R-Hanaway)
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  109. ELECTIONS ‘She’s a lucky duck’: GOP implodes again for McCaskill, Politico , Daniel Strauss, April 23, 2018. Retrieved April 30, 2018.

Official campaign websites (archived)