2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii

Last updated

2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii
Flag of Hawaii.svg
  2014
(special)
November 8, 2016 2022  
  Brian Schatz, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg John Carroll.jpg
Nominee Brian Schatz John Carroll
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote306,60492,653
Percentage73.61%22.24%

2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii results map by county.svg
County results
Schatz:     70–80%

U.S. senator before election

Brian Schatz
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Brian Schatz
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii was held November 8, 2016, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held August 13. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Brian Schatz won reelection to his first full term in office, defeating Republican former state legislator John Carroll.

Contents

Background

In 2011, Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old. [1] [2] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible." [3]

Inouye died on December 17, 2012. [4] Hawaii Governor Neil Abercrombie appointed Lieutenant Governor Brian Schatz, a Democrat, to succeed Inouye. Schatz won a 2014 special election to serve the remainder of Inouye's term. [5]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Former

Results

Democratic primary results [10] [11] [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Brian Schatz (incumbent) 162,891 86.17%
Democratic Makani Christensen11,8986.29%
Democratic Miles Shiratori8,6204.56%
Democratic Arturo Reyes3,8192.02%
Democratic Tutz Honeychurch1,8150.96%
Total votes189,043 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • Charles Collins, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and for Governor of Hawaii in 2014 [13]

Declined

Results

Results by county:
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Carroll--70-80%
Carroll--60-70% Hawaii Senate Republican primary, 2016.svg
Results by county:
  Carroll—70–80%
  Carroll—60–70%
Republican primary results [10] [11] [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican John Carroll 26,747 74.58%
Republican John P. Roco3,95611.03%
Republican Karla Gottschalk3,0458.49%
Republican Eddie Pirkowski2,1145.89%
Total votes35,862 100.00%

Other primaries

Libertarian

Candidates

Declared
  • Michael Kokoski, nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014 [6]

Results

Libertarian primary results [10] [11] [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Michael Kokoski 909 100.00%
Total votes909 100.00%

Constitution

Candidates

Declared
  • Joy Allison, independent candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 [6]

Results

Constitution primary results [10] [11] [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Constitution Joy Allison 217 100.00%
Total votes217 100.00%

American Shopping

Candidates

Declared
  • John Giuffre [6]

Results

American Shopping primary results [10] [11] [12]
PartyCandidateVotes%
American ShoppingJohn Giuffre111100.00%
Total votes111 100.00%

General election

Schatz defeated Carroll on election day, winning his second election to the U.S. Senate and his first full term after being appointed to the seat in 2012 following the death of Daniel Inouye. This was his largest margin of victory, as he won over 4% more of the electorate in this election.

Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on Hand
Brian Schatz (D) [14] $3,316,074$1,195,572$3,074,380
John Carroll (R)

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [15] Safe DNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [16] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [17] Safe DNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [18] Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [19] Safe DNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schatz (D)
John
Carroll (R)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016426± 4.6%70%26%4%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016426± 4.6%67%29%4%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016435± 4.6%68%26%6%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016424± 4.6%70%26%4%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016428± 4.6%70%26%4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016467± 4.6%69%27%4%

Results

United States Senate election in Hawaii, 2016 [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Brian Schatz (incumbent) 306,604 73.61% +3.83%
Republican John Carroll 92,65322.24%-5.46%
Constitution Joy Allison9,1032.19%N/A
Libertarian Michael Kokowski6,8091.63%-0.89%
American ShoppingJohn Giuffre1,3930.33%N/A
Total votes416,562 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

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References

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  2. 1 2 Hamilton, Chris. "The Maui News - Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control)". The Maui News. Retrieved September 2, 2012.
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  8. 1 2 Blair, Chad (March 14, 2015). "Tulsi Gabbard Looks to Be Running for Re-election". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 26, 2015.
  9. "Leadership Lessons from the Late Sen. Daniel Inouye". Forbes .
  10. 1 2 3 4 5 "Statewide Results" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 22, 2016. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  11. 1 2 3 4 5 "Hawaii Senate Races Results". Politico. Retrieved August 13, 2016.
  12. 1 2 3 4 5 "Archived copy". Archived from the original on August 18, 2016. Retrieved August 16, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  13. "Charles Collins for US Senate" . Retrieved December 29, 2015.
  14. "Schatz, Brian — Candidate for Senate". Federal Elections Commission. Retrieved August 15, 2016.
  15. "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  16. "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  17. "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  18. "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  19. "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  20. "Office of Elections – State of Hawaii – Statewide". State of Hawaii Office of Elections. August 16, 2016. p. 1. Retrieved November 18, 2016.
Official campaign websites