2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut

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2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut
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  Richard Blumenthal Official Portrait (4x5 crop).jpg Rep Dan Carter (cropped).jpg
Nominee Richard Blumenthal Dan Carter
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families
Popular vote1,008,714552,621
Percentage63.19%34.62%
2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut results map by county.svg
2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut results map by municipality.svg
CT Senate 2016.svg
Blumenthal:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Carter:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Richard Blumenthal
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Richard Blumenthal
Democratic

The 2016 United States Senate election in Connecticut was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Connecticut, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal won re-election to a second term in office. Blumenthal's final vote total of 1,008,714 at the time made him the largest vote-receiver in the history of statewide elections in the state. (Blumenthal's record was later broken by then Vice President Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election; Biden received 1,080,680 votes.) He also became the first person to exceed 1 million votes in the history of statewide elections in Connecticut. He remains the highest voter-receiver in the history of statewide elections besides the presidency.

Democratic nomination

Candidates

Declared

Republican nomination

Declared

Withdrew at convention

Failed to qualify

Declined

Republican convention

The Republican state convention was held May 9, 2016, at the Connecticut Convention Center to select candidates for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives. State Representative Dan Carter received the nomination with 76.7% of the delegate vote. Neither Jack Orchulli nor August Wolf received the necessary 15% of the delegate vote necessary to be granted an automatic primary on August 9, 2016. [15] In the first round of voting, Wolf received 179 delegate votes, equalling 15.1% and qualifying for a primary. However, before balloting closed, Orchulli dropped from the race and publicly endorsed Dan Carter, urging his candidates to switch their votes. During the vote switching, an additional 56 delegates that had voted for Wolf also switched their vote, dropping him well below the 15% threshold. [16]

On May 11, 2016, Wolf announced an attempt to force a primary by collecting the signatures of 8,079 registered Republicans by June 7. [17] However, on June 21, 2016, it was announced that Wolf had failed to reach the required signature threshold to force a primary, and he conceded the Republican nomination to Carter as a result. [18]

Convention results

CandidateDelegatesPercentage
Dan Carter90776.7%
August Wolf12310.4%
Jack Orchulli201.7%
Not Present13211.2%

Endorsements

Dan Carter

General election

Debates

DatesLocationBlumenthalCarterLink
October 23, 2016 Rocky Hill, Connecticut ParticipantParticipant [19]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [20] Safe DNovember 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [21] Safe DNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [22] Safe DNovember 3, 2016
Daily Kos [23] Safe DNovember 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics [24] Safe DNovember 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Richard
Blumenthal (D)		Dan
Carter (R)		Undecided
SurveyMonkey [25] November 1–7, 20161,387± 4.6%63%34%3%
SurveyMonkey [26] October 31 – November 6, 20161,173± 4.6%62%35%3%
SurveyMonkey [27] October 28 – November 3, 2016925± 4.6%62%36%2%
SurveyMonkey [28] October 27 – November 2, 2016753± 4.6%62%36%2%
SurveyMonkey [29] October 26 – November 1, 2016616± 4.6%60%38%2%
SurveyMonkey [30] October 25–31, 2016554± 4.6%59%38%3%
Emerson College [31] September 2–5, 20161,000± 3.0%54%33%9%
Quinnipiac University [32] June 1–5, 20161,330± 2.7%60%30%10%
Hypothetical polling

with August Wolf

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Richard
Blumenthal (D)		August
Wolf (R)		Undecided
Quinnipiac University [33] October 7–11, 20151,735± 2.4%61%26%13%
Quinnipiac University [34] June 1–5, 20161,330± 2.7%62%27%11%

with Larry Kudlow

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Richard
Blumenthal (D)		Larry
Kudlow (R)		Undecided
Quinnipiac University [35] October 7–11, 20151,735± 2.4%61%27%12%

Results

x

United States Senate election in Connecticut, 2016 [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Richard Blumenthal920,76657.68%+5.20%
Working Families Richard Blumenthal87,9485.51%+2.83%
Total Richard Blumenthal (incumbent) 1,008,714 63.19% +8.03%
Republican Dan Carter 552,62134.62%−8.60%
Libertarian Richard Lion18,1901.14%N/A
Green Jeffery Russell16,7131.05%N/A
Independent Andrew Rule (write-in)260.00%N/A
Independent John M. Traceski (write-in)120.00%N/A
Total votes1,596,276 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Blumenthal won all five congressional districts. [37]

DistrictBlumenthalCarterRepresentative
1st 68%30% John B. Larson
2nd 61%36% Joe Courtney
3rd 68%30% Rosa DeLauro
4th 62%36% Jim Himes
5th 58%40% Elizabeth Esty

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References

  1. ↑ Cahn, Emily; Levinson, Alexis (January 28, 2015). "Senators Confirm Re-Election Bids for 2016". Roll Call . Archived from the original on January 29, 2015. Retrieved January 29, 2015.
  2. ↑ "Breaking News: CT State Rep. Dan Carter Is Exploring Run for U.S. Senate". Bethel Advocate. March 19, 2016.
  3. 1 2 3 "GOP's Dan Carter announces for U.S. Senate nomination". The Connecticut Mirror. April 4, 2016.
  4. ↑ Vigdor, Neil (April 12, 2016). "Darien fashion label founder Orchulli to run for Senate". The Connecticut Post. Retrieved April 14, 2016.
  5. 1 2 Radelat, Ana (May 4, 2015). "Stamford Republican steps up to challenge Blumenthal". The Connecticut Mirror . Retrieved July 18, 2015.
  6. ↑ Blair, Russell (June 21, 2016). "Republican August Wolf Fails To Qualify For U.S. Senate Primary". The Hartford Courant. Retrieved June 23, 2016.
  7. ↑ Burns, Alexander (September 22, 2015). "Larry Kudlow Weighs Run Against Senator Richard Blumenthal in Connecticut". The New York Times . Retrieved October 1, 2015.
  8. ↑ Radelat, Ana (September 28, 2015). "Kudlow denies report he's decided to run against Blumenthal". The Connecticut Mirror . Retrieved December 19, 2015.
  9. ↑ Altimari, Daniela (December 7, 2015). "CNBC's Larry Kudlow Urged To Run For Senate Against Connecticut's Richard Blumenthal". Hartford Courant . Retrieved December 19, 2015.
  10. ↑ Keating, Christopher (February 16, 2016). "Kudlow Will Not Run for U.S. Senate Against Blumenthal". Hartford Courant . Retrieved February 16, 2016.
  11. ↑ Krasselt, Kaitlyn (February 7, 2016). "Linda McMahon says self awareness influenced new venture for women". Greenwich Time . Retrieved February 7, 2016.
  12. ↑ Vigdor, Neil (April 8, 2015). "Simmons rules out 2016 challenge of Blumenthal". Connecticut Post . Retrieved April 9, 2015.
  13. ↑ Vigdor, Neil (May 1, 2015). "Visconti exploring 2016 Senate run". Connecticut Post . Retrieved October 1, 2015.
  14. ↑ Vigdor, Neil (March 23, 2015). "Walker won't challenge Blumenthal for Senate". Connecticut Post . Retrieved March 25, 2015.
  15. ↑ "Dan Carter wins Connecticut's Republican Senate nomination". WTNH. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
  16. 1 2 "CT GOP backs Carter for Senate, denies Wolf primary margin". The CT Mirror. Retrieved May 10, 2016.
  17. ↑ Altimari, Daniela (May 11, 2016). "Rejected by GOP, An Angry August Wolf Seeks Primary". Hartford Courant. Retrieved May 21, 2016.
  18. ↑ Blair, Russell (June 21, 2016). "Republican August Wolf Fails To Qualify For U.S. Senate Primary". Hartford Courant. Retrieved June 27, 2016.
  19. ↑ Full debate
  20. ↑ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
  21. ↑ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
  22. ↑ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
  23. ↑ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  24. ↑ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  25. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  26. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  27. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  28. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  29. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  30. ↑ SurveyMonkey
  31. ↑ Emerson College
  32. ↑ Quinnipiac University Archived June 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  33. ↑ Quinnipiac University Archived February 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  34. ↑ Quinnipiac University Archived June 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  35. ↑ Quinnipiac University Archived February 13, 2016, at the Wayback Machine
  36. ↑ "2016 General Election November 8, 2016 Official Results". ct.gov. December 15, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
  37. ↑ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 20, 2024.

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