2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut

Last updated

2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut
Flag of Connecticut.svg
  2020 November 5, 20242028 
Turnout69.6% [1] Decrease2.svg
  Kamala Harris Vice Presidential Portrait (cropped).jpg TrumpPortrait (3x4a).jpg
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Electoral vote70
Popular vote992,053736,918
Percentage56.40%41.89%

Connecticut Presidential Election Results 2024.svg
Connecticut Presidential Election Results 2024 by Municipality.svg
2024-connecticut-presidential-by-district.svg
Connecticut Presidential Election Results 2024 by COG.svg

President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. [2]

Contents

Like most of New England, Connecticut is considered a strongly blue state, having voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 20%. The state last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in George H. W. Bush's landslide victory in the 1988 election.

Harris comfortably won the state by 14.5 points as overall turnout decreased by 10.1 points, performing worse than Biden in 2020, but slightly better than Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump secured 41.9% of the vote to record the best Republican performance in Connecticut since 2004. [3] With this election being the first under the state's new Council of Government system, Harris won 6 and Trump won 3 of the 9 county-equivalents.

Primary elections

Republican primary

The Connecticut Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the New York primary.

[4]

Connecticut Republican primary, April 2, 2024 [5]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
BoundUnboundTotal
Donald Trump 34,75077.88%28028
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)6,22913.96%000
Uncommitted 2,1664.85%000
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)1,2892.89%000
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)1840.41%000
Total:44,618100.00%28028

Democratic primary

The Connecticut Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024.

Connecticut Democratic primary, April 2, 2024 [6]
CandidateVotesPercentageActual delegate count
PledgedUnpledgedTotal
Joe Biden (incumbent)55,53384.8%6060
Uncommitted 7,61911.6%
Marianne Williamson 1,4902.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)5770.9%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)3100.5%
Total:65,529100.0%601479

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Connecticut held a ranked-choice straw poll on April 2, 2024. [7]

2024 Connecticut Libertarian straw poll
CandidateRound 1T.Round 2T.Round 3T.Round 4T.Round 5T.Round 6T.Round 7
Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %Votes %
Chase Oliver 3734.9%+13835.8%3837.6%+34141.0%+14242.4%+24444.4%+54951.0%
Jacob Hornberger1211.3%1211.3%+11312.9%+11414.0%+21616.2%+42020.2%+42425.0%
Michael Rectenwald 1414.6%1413.2%1413.9%1414.0%+21616.2%+21818.2%+52324.0%
Joshua Smith109.4%+11110.4%1110.9%1111.0%+21313.1%+41717.2%–17Eliminated
Mike ter Maat98.5%98.5%98.9%+11010.0%+21212.1%–12Eliminated
Lars Mapstead76.6%+187.5%87.9%+21010.0%–10Eliminated
Charles Ballay76.6%+187.5%87.9%–8Eliminated
None of the above 65.7%65.7%–6Eliminated
Joseph Collins Jr.43.8%–4Eliminated
Active ballots106–5101–1100–199–396

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [8] Solid DDecember 19, 2023
Inside Elections [9] Solid DApril 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [10] Safe DJune 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [11] Safe DDecember 14, 2023
CNalysis [12] Solid DDecember 30, 2023
CNN [13] Solid DJanuary 14, 2024
The Economist [14] Safe DAugust 28, 2024
538 [15] Solid DAugust 23, 2024
RCP [16] Solid DJune 26, 2024
NBC News [17] Safe DOctober 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
MassINC Polling Group [18] [A] September 12–18, 2024800 (LV)± 3.7%52%37%3%8%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
July 21, 2024Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies [19] [B] April 13–21, 2024411 (LV)55%38%7%
Emerson College [20] [C] October 19–21, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%40%11%
Emerson College [21] [C] September 7–9, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%49%36%15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [22] July 26–27, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%52%39%9%
Emerson College [23] May 10–11, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.0%51%38%11%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [B] April 13–21, 2024411 (LV)49%41%10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Donald
Trump
Republican
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [B] April 13–21, 2024411 (LV)50%33%17%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut [24]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic 992,053 56.40% Decrease2.svg 2.84%
Republican 736,91841.89%Increase2.svg 2.68%
Green 14,2810.81%Increase2.svg 0.40%
Independent
8,4480.48%N/A
Libertarian 6,7290.38%Decrease2.svg 0.73%
Socialism and Liberation
2640.02%N/A
American Solidarity
1620.01%N/A
Independent
1280.01%N/A
Independent
210.00%N/A
Write-in 60.00%Decrease2.svg 0.03%
Total votes1,759,010 100.00% N/A

By county

CountyKamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
# %# %# %# %
Fairfield 267,01959.04%178,26339.41%7,0211.55%88,75619.63%452,303
Hartford 259,36660.41%162,57237.87%7,3871.72%96,79422.54%429,325
Litchfield 47,94045.24%56,45253.27%1,5771.49%-8,512-8.03%105,969
Middlesex 54,17355.55%41,65442.71%1,6921.74%12,51912.84%97,519
New Haven 218,98155.02%171,43543.08%7,5711.90%47,54611.94%397,987
New London 76,19055.41%58,85842.81%2,4521.78%17,33212.60%137,500
Tolland 43,31153.13%36,77345.11%1,4361.76%6,5388.02%81,520
Windham 25,07344.08%30,91154.34%9031.59%-5,838-10.26%56,887
Totals992,05356.40%736,91841.89%30,0391.71%255,13514.51%1,759,010

[25]

By Council of Government

Council of GovernmentKamala Harris
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
# %# %# %# %
Capitol Planning Region 285,10560.09%181,03838.16%8,3021.75%104,06721.93%474,445
Greater Bridgeport 83,46160.90%51,51937.59%2,0681.51%31,94223.31%137,048
Lower Connecticut River Valley 58,36055.84%44,31842.41%1,8261.75%14,04213.44%104,504
Naugatuck Valley 99,23745.61%115,29052.99%3,0601.41%-16,053-7.38%217,587
Northeastern Connecticut 21,16541.52%29,02856.95%7771.52%-7,863-15.43%50,970
Northwest Hills 31,13748.58%31,94449.84%1,0091.57%-807-1.26%64,090
South Central Connecticut 156,24858.96%103,08738.90%5,6732.14%53,16120.06%265,008
Southeastern Connecticut 76,14655.58%58,39242.62%2,4561.79%17,75412.96%136,994
Western Connecticut 181,19458.76%122,30239.66%4,8681.58%58,89219.10%308,364
Totals992,05356.40%736,91841.89%30,0391.71%255,13514.51%1,759,010

[26]

Connecticut Region Swing 2024.svg

By congressional district

Harris won all five congressional districts.

DistrictHarrisTrumpHarris
vs House [29]
Harris
vs 2020 [30]
Trump
vs House [29]
Trump
vs 2020 [30]
Representative
1st 60.59%37.71%−2.54%−2.71%+2.89%+2.49% John B. Larson
2nd 53.01%45.29%−5.00%−1.71%+3.31%+2.01% Joe Courtney
3rd 56.05%41.99%−2.83%−3.18%+0.91%+2.48% Rosa DeLauro
4th 60.89%37.53%−0.17%−3.93%+0.19%+3.71% Jim Himes
5th 51.99%46.41%−1.41%−2.64%−0.17%+2.53% Jahana Hayes

Analysis

Harris won all five congressional districts, performing the best in the fourth district to match Biden's strongest result there in 2020. However, she ceded ground by 1.71% to 3.93% across districts compared to 2020 despite a uniform victory. Such a result was also consistent with her underperformance in comparison to Democratic nominees for the election to the House of Representatives.

Conversely, Trump outran Republican nominees in four out of five districts, earning a poorer result in the fifth district. He still improved on his 2020 performance in all five districts, gaining 2.01% to 3.71% more votes. [30] [31] [ user-generated source ]

A graphical representation of Harris's (top) and Trump's (bottom) in comparison to 2024 House election (left) and 2020 presidential election (right) Connecticut District Comparison 2024 Against House And 2020.svg
A graphical representation of Harris's (top) and Trump's (bottom) in comparison to 2024 House election (left) and 2020 presidential election (right)

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by The Connecticut Mirror
  2. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by WTNH-TV

References

  1. "Registration and Party Enrollment Statistics as of October 31, 2024" (PDF). Connecticut Secretary of the State.
  2. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  3. "Connecticut Presidential Election Voting History". 270toWin. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  4. "Election Calendars".
  5. "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
  6. "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  7. @LPofCT (April 3, 2024). "The winner of our LPCT Presidential Primary straw poll is @ChaseForLiberty" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  8. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report . December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections . April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. "2024 Electoral College ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill . December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis . December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  14. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved August 29, 2024.
  15. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
  16. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  17. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  18. Pazniokas, Mark (September 23, 2024). "CT Mirror poll shows Harris leading Trump by 16 points in state". The Connecticut Mirror.
  19. 1 2 3 "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  20. Mumford, Camille (October 25, 2022). "Connecticut 2022: Incumbents Blumenthal & Lamont Maintain Leads Ahead of Midterm Elections". Emerson Polling.
  21. Latina, Jodi (September 15, 2022). "News 8/The Hill/Emerson Polling looks at abortion rights, presidential approval rating". WTNH-TV.
  22. Keating, Christopher (August 1, 2022). "New poll shows Blumenthal ahead in U.S. Senate race by double digits and that many voters don't know his challengers". The Hartford Courant .
  23. "Emerson Polling - Connecticut 2022 Poll: Lamont Leads Stefanowski in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson College Polling. May 18, 2022.
  24. "Election Night Reporting". Secretary of State of Connecticut . November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
  25. Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved May 26, 2017.
  26. "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  27. "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  28. "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
  29. 1 2 "Connecticut House Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
  30. 1 2 3 Nir, David. "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
  31. "2024 Pres by CD".