2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout	69.6% [1]
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance Electoral vote 7 0 Popular vote 992,053 736,918 Percentage 56.40% 41.89%
County results Municipality results Congressional district results Council of government results Harris   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%   70–80%   80–90% Trump   40–50%   50–60%   60–70%
President before election Joe Biden Democratic Elected President Donald Trump Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[2]

Like most of New England, Connecticut is considered a strongly blue state, having voted for Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 20%. The state last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in George H. W. Bush's landslide victory in the 1988 election.

Harris comfortably won the state by 14.5 points as overall turnout decreased by 10.1 points, performing worse than Biden in 2020, but slightly better than Clinton in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump secured 41.9% of the vote to record the best Republican performance in Connecticut since 2004. ^[3] With this election being the first under the state's new Council of Government system, Harris won 6 and Trump won 3 of the 9 county-equivalents.

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary

The Connecticut Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the New York primary.

^[4]

Connecticut Republican primary, April 2, 2024 ^[5]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	34,750	77.88%	28	0	28
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	6,229	13.96%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	2,166	4.85%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	1,289	2.89%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	184	0.41%	0	0	0
Total:	44,618	100.00%	28	0	28

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary

The Connecticut Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024.

Connecticut Democratic primary, April 2, 2024 ^[6]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	55,533	84.8%	60		60
Uncommitted	7,619	11.6%
Marianne Williamson	1,490	2.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	577	0.9%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)	310	0.5%
Total:	65,529	100.0%	60	14	79

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Connecticut held a ranked-choice straw poll on April 2, 2024. ^[7]

2024 Connecticut Libertarian straw poll

Candidate	Round 1		T.	Round 2		T.	Round 3		T.	Round 4		T.	Round 5		T.	Round 6		T.	Round 7
	Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%
Chase Oliver	37	34.9%	+1	38	35.8%		38	37.6%	+3	41	41.0%	+1	42	42.4%	+2	44	44.4%	+5	49	51.0%
Jacob Hornberger	12	11.3%		12	11.3%	+1	13	12.9%	+1	14	14.0%	+2	16	16.2%	+4	20	20.2%	+4	24	25.0%
Michael Rectenwald	14	14.6%		14	13.2%		14	13.9%		14	14.0%	+2	16	16.2%	+2	18	18.2%	+5	23	24.0%
Joshua Smith	10	9.4%	+1	11	10.4%		11	10.9%		11	11.0%	+2	13	13.1%	+4	17	17.2%	–17	Eliminated
Mike ter Maat	9	8.5%		9	8.5%		9	8.9%	+1	10	10.0%	+2	12	12.1%	–12	Eliminated
Lars Mapstead	7	6.6%	+1	8	7.5%		8	7.9%	+2	10	10.0%	–10	Eliminated
Charles Ballay	7	6.6%	+1	8	7.5%		8	7.9%	–8	Eliminated
None of the above	6	5.7%		6	5.7%	–6	Eliminated
Joseph Collins Jr.	4	3.8%	–4	Eliminated
Active ballots	106					–5	101		–1	100		–1	99					–3	96

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [8]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [9]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [10]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [11]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [12]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [13]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist [14]	Safe D	August 28, 2024
538 [15]	Solid D	August 23, 2024
RCP [16]	Solid D	June 26, 2024
NBC News [17]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
MassINC Polling Group [18] [A]	September 12–18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.7%	52%	37%	3%	8%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies [19] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	411 (LV)	–	55%	38%	7%
Emerson College [20] [C]	October 19–21, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	40%	11%
Emerson College [21] [C]	September 7–9, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	36%	15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [22]	July 26–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	39%	9%
Emerson College [23]	May 10–11, 2022	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	38%	11%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	411 (LV)	–	49%	41%	10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [a]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [19] [B]	April 13–21, 2024	411 (LV)	–	50%	33%	17%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut ^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz	992,053	56.40%	2.84%
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance	736,918	41.89%	2.68%
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware	14,281	0.81%	0.40%
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)	8,448	0.48%	N/A
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat	6,729	0.38%	0.73%
	Socialism and Liberation	Claudia De la Cruz (write-in) Karina Garcia (write-in)	264	0.02%	N/A
	American Solidarity	Peter Sonski (write-in) Lauren Onak (write-in)	162	0.01%	N/A
	Independent	Cornel West (write-in) Melina Abdullah (write-in)	128	0.01%	N/A
	Independent	Shiva Ayyadurai (write-in) Crystal Ellis (write-in)	21	0.00%	N/A
	Write-in		6	0.00%	0.03%
Total votes			1,759,010	100.00%	N/A

By county

County	Kamala Harris Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Fairfield	267,019	59.04%	178,263	39.41%	7,021	1.55%	88,756	19.63%	452,303
Hartford	259,366	60.41%	162,572	37.87%	7,387	1.72%	96,794	22.54%	429,325
Litchfield	47,940	45.24%	56,452	53.27%	1,577	1.49%	-8,512	-8.03%	105,969
Middlesex	54,173	55.55%	41,654	42.71%	1,692	1.74%	12,519	12.84%	97,519
New Haven	218,981	55.02%	171,435	43.08%	7,571	1.90%	47,546	11.94%	397,987
New London	76,190	55.41%	58,858	42.81%	2,452	1.78%	17,332	12.60%	137,500
Tolland	43,311	53.13%	36,773	45.11%	1,436	1.76%	6,538	8.02%	81,520
Windham	25,073	44.08%	30,911	54.34%	903	1.59%	-5,838	-10.26%	56,887
Totals	992,053	56.40%	736,918	41.89%	30,039	1.71%	255,135	14.51%	1,759,010

^[25]

By Council of Government

Council of Government	Kamala Harris Democratic		Donald Trump Republican		Various candidates Other parties		Margin		Total
	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%
Capitol Planning Region	285,105	60.09%	181,038	38.16%	8,302	1.75%	104,067	21.93%	474,445
Greater Bridgeport	83,461	60.90%	51,519	37.59%	2,068	1.51%	31,942	23.31%	137,048
Lower Connecticut River Valley	58,360	55.84%	44,318	42.41%	1,826	1.75%	14,042	13.44%	104,504
Naugatuck Valley	99,237	45.61%	115,290	52.99%	3,060	1.41%	-16,053	-7.38%	217,587
Northeastern Connecticut	21,165	41.52%	29,028	56.95%	777	1.52%	-7,863	-15.43%	50,970
Northwest Hills	31,137	48.58%	31,944	49.84%	1,009	1.57%	-807	-1.26%	64,090
South Central Connecticut	156,248	58.96%	103,087	38.90%	5,673	2.14%	53,161	20.06%	265,008
Southeastern Connecticut	76,146	55.58%	58,392	42.62%	2,456	1.79%	17,754	12.96%	136,994
Western Connecticut	181,194	58.76%	122,302	39.66%	4,868	1.58%	58,892	19.10%	308,364
Totals	992,053	56.40%	736,918	41.89%	30,039	1.71%	255,135	14.51%	1,759,010

^[26]

Swing by planning region
(black border denotes flips) ^{[27] [28]}

Legend

•   Republican — +0–2.5%
•   Republican — +2.5–5%
•   Republican — +5–7.5%
•   Republican — +7.5–10%

By congressional district

Harris won all five congressional districts.

District	Harris	Trump	Harris vs House [29]	Harris vs 2020 [30]	Trump vs House [29]	Trump vs 2020 [30]	Representative
1st	60.59%	37.71%	−2.54%	−2.71%	+2.89%	+2.49%	John B. Larson
2nd	53.01%	45.29%	−5.00%	−1.71%	+3.31%	+2.01%	Joe Courtney
3rd	56.05%	41.99%	−2.83%	−3.18%	+0.91%	+2.48%	Rosa DeLauro
4th	60.89%	37.53%	−0.17%	−3.93%	+0.19%	+3.71%	Jim Himes
5th	51.99%	46.41%	−1.41%	−2.64%	−0.17%	+2.53%	Jahana Hayes

Analysis

Harris won all five congressional districts, performing the best in the fourth district to match Biden's strongest result there in 2020. However, she ceded ground by 1.71% to 3.93% across districts compared to 2020 despite a uniform victory. Such a result was also consistent with her underperformance in comparison to Democratic nominees for the election to the House of Representatives.

Conversely, Trump outran Republican nominees in four out of five districts, earning a poorer result in the fifth district. He still improved on his 2020 performance in all five districts, gaining 2.01% to 3.71% more votes. ^{[30] [31] [ user-generated source ]}

A graphical representation of Harris's (top) and Trump's (bottom) in comparison to 2024 House election (left) and 2020 presidential election (right)

See also

• United States presidential elections in Connecticut
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Connecticut Mirror
2. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
3. Poll sponsored by WTNH-TV

References

1. "Registration and Party Enrollment Statistics as of October 31, 2024" (PDF). Connecticut Secretary of the State.
2. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
3. "Connecticut Presidential Election Voting History". 270toWin. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
4. "Election Calendars".
5. "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
6. "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
7. @LPofCT (April 3, 2024). "The winner of our LPCT Presidential Primary straw poll is @ChaseForLiberty" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
8. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". Cook Political Report . December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
9. "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections . April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
10. "2024 Electoral College ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "2024 presidential predictions". The Hill . December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "2024 Presidential Forecast". CNalysis . December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
14. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved August 29, 2024.
15. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
16. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
17. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
18. Pazniokas, Mark (September 23, 2024). "CT Mirror poll shows Harris leading Trump by 16 points in state". The Connecticut Mirror.
19. "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
20. Mumford, Camille (October 25, 2022). "Connecticut 2022: Incumbents Blumenthal & Lamont Maintain Leads Ahead of Midterm Elections". Emerson Polling.
21. Latina, Jodi (September 15, 2022). "News 8/The Hill/Emerson Polling looks at abortion rights, presidential approval rating". WTNH-TV.
22. Keating, Christopher (August 1, 2022). "New poll shows Blumenthal ahead in U.S. Senate race by double digits and that many voters don't know his challengers". The Hartford Courant .
23. "Emerson Polling - Connecticut 2022 Poll: Lamont Leads Stefanowski in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson College Polling. May 18, 2022.
24. "Election Night Reporting". Secretary of State of Connecticut . November 5, 2024. Retrieved December 10, 2024.
25. Leip, David. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved May 26, 2017.
26. "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
27. "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
28. "Connecticut Election Results". Bloomberg. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 13, 2024.
29. "Connecticut House Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
30. Nir, David. "Daily Kos Elections' 2020 presidential results by congressional district". Daily Kos. Retrieved November 15, 2024.
31. "2024 Pres by CD".