2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump Party Democratic Republican Home state California Florida Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance

County results Municipality results Council of Governments (COG) results

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Connecticut voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

A New England state, Connecticut last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in George H.W. Bush's landslide victory in the 1988 election. It is a strongly blue state, voting for Joe Biden in 2020 by more than 20%.

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term, and became the party's presumptive nominee, but withdrew from the race on July 21. ^{[2] [3]} He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day. ^[4] The Republican nominee is former president Donald Trump. ^[5]

Primary elections

Republican primary

Main article: 2024 Connecticut Republican presidential primary

The Connecticut Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside the New York primary. ^[6]

Connecticut Republican primary, April 2, 2024 ^[7]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	34,750	77.88%	28	0	28
Nikki Haley (withdrawn)	6,229	13.96%	0	0	0
Uncommitted	2,166	4.85%	0	0	0
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn)	1,289	2.89%	0	0	0
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn)	184	0.41%	0	0	0
Total:	44,618	100.00%	28	0	28

Democratic primary

Main article: 2024 Connecticut Democratic presidential primary

The Connecticut Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024.

Connecticut Democratic primary, April 2, 2024 ^[8]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	55,533	84.8%	60		60
Uncommitted	7,619	11.6%
Marianne Williamson	1,490	2.3%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn)	577	0.9%
Cenk Uygur (withdrawn)	310	0.5%
Total:	65,529	100.0%	60	14	79

Libertarian primary

The Libertarian Party of Connecticut held a ranked-choice straw poll on April 2, 2024. ^[9]

2024 Connecticut Libertarian straw poll

Candidate	Round 1		T.	Round 2		T.	Round 3		T.	Round 4		T.	Round 5		T.	Round 6		T.	Round 7
	Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%		Votes	%
Chase Oliver	37	34.9%	+1	38	35.8%		38	37.6%	+3	41	41.0%	+1	42	42.4%	+2	44	44.4%	+5	49	51.0%
Jacob Hornberger	12	11.3%		12	11.3%	+1	13	12.9%	+1	14	14.0%	+2	16	16.2%	+4	20	20.2%	+4	24	25.0%
Michael Rectenwald	14	14.6%		14	13.2%		14	13.9%		14	14.0%	+2	16	16.2%	+2	18	18.2%	+5	23	24.0%
Joshua Smith	10	9.4%	+1	11	10.4%		11	10.9%		11	11.0%	+2	13	13.1%	+4	17	17.2%	–17	Eliminated
Mike ter Maat	9	8.5%		9	8.5%		9	8.9%	+1	10	10.0%	+2	12	12.1%	–12	Eliminated
Lars Mapstead	7	6.6%	+1	8	7.5%		8	7.9%	+2	10	10.0%	–10	Eliminated
Charles Ballay	7	6.6%	+1	8	7.5%		8	7.9%	–8	Eliminated
None of the above	6	5.7%		6	5.7%	–6	Eliminated
Joseph Collins Jr.	4	3.8%	–4	Eliminated
Active ballots	106					–5	101		–1	100		–1	99					–3	96

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report [10]	Solid D	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [11]	Solid D	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [12]	Safe D	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [13]	Safe D	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [14]	Solid D	December 30, 2023
CNN [15]	Solid D	January 14, 2024
The Economist [16]	Safe D	August 28, 2024
538 [17]	Solid D	August 23, 2024
RCP [18]	Solid D	June 26, 2024
NBC News [19]	Safe D	October 6, 2024

Polling

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Kamala Harris Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Robert Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
MassINC Polling Group [20] [upper-alpha 1]	September 12−18, 2024	800 (LV)	± 3.7%	52%	37%	3%	8%

Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
	July 21, 2024	Joe Biden withdraws from the race.
John Zogby Strategies [21] [upper-alpha 2]	April 13–21, 2024	411 (LV)	–	55%	38%	7%
Emerson College [22] [upper-alpha 3]	October 19–21, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	40%	11%
Emerson College [23] [upper-alpha 3]	September 7–9, 2022	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	49%	36%	15%
McLaughlin & Associates (R) [24]	July 26–27, 2022	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	52%	39%	9%
Emerson College [25]	May 10–11, 2022	1,000 (RV)	± 3.0%	51%	38%	11%

Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Joe Biden Democratic	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [21] [upper-alpha 2]	April 13–21, 2024	411 (LV)	–	49%	41%	10%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 1]	Margin of error	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent	Donald Trump Republican	Other / Undecided
John Zogby Strategies [21] [upper-alpha 2]	April 13–21, 2024	411 (LV)	–	50%	33%	17%

Results

2024 United States presidential election in Connecticut ^[26]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Kamala Harris Tim Walz
	Republican	Donald Trump JD Vance
	Libertarian	Chase Oliver Mike ter Maat
	Green	Jill Stein Butch Ware
	Independent	Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (withdrawn) Nicole Shanahan (withdrawn)
	Write-in
Total votes

See also

• United States presidential elections in Connecticut
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by The Connecticut Mirror
2. Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
3. Poll sponsored by WTNH-TV

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
3. Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved July 22, 2024.
4. "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
5. Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN   0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
6. "Election Calendars".
7. "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 17, 2024.
8. "Connecticut Presidential Primary". The AP. May 6, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
9. "The winner of our LPCT Presidential Primary straw poll is @ChaseForLiberty". x.com.
10. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
11. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
12. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
14. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
15. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.
16. "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist . Retrieved August 29, 2024.
17. Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved August 24, 2024.
18. "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
19. "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
20. Pazniokas, Mark (September 23, 2024). "CT Mirror poll shows Harris leading Trump by 16 points in state". The Connecticut Mirror.
21. "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
22. Mumford, Camille (October 25, 2022). "Connecticut 2022: Incumbents Blumenthal & Lamont Maintain Leads Ahead of Midterm Elections". Emerson Polling.
23. Latina, Jodi (September 15, 2022). "News 8/The Hill/Emerson Polling looks at abortion rights, presidential approval rating".
24. Keating, Christopher (August 1, 2022). "New poll shows Blumenthal ahead in U.S. Senate race by double digits and that many voters don't know his challengers". The Hartford Courant .
25. "Emerson Polling - Connecticut 2022 Poll: Lamont Leads Stefanowski in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson College Polling. May 18, 2022.
26. "List of Nominees". State of Connecticut Office of the SOS. Retrieved September 23, 2024.