2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

Main article: 2024 United States presidential election

2024 United States presidential election in Iowa

←  2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →

Nominee Donald Trump (presumptive) Joe Biden (presumptive) Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate TBA Kamala Harris (presumptive)

Incumbent President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2024 United States presidential election in Iowa is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Iowa voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat. ^[1]

Although Iowa was considered both a swing and a bellwether state for decades, it voted significantly more Republican than the nation-at-large in both 2016 and 2020 and probably will not be as contested by the Democrats in 2024 as Republican Donald Trump won the state by a somewhat comfortable margin while losing nationally in the latter election, despite polls indicating a close race.

Furthermore, during the 2022 midterms, all three statewide incumbent Republicans (governor, secretary of agriculture, and secretary of state) won reelection by more than 18%, two of three statewide incumbent Democrats (28-year incumbent attorney general and 40-year incumbent treasurer) lost to Republican challengers, and the remaining incumbent Democrat (4-year incumbent auditor) won by less than 3,000 votes and 0.23%, further signifying Iowa's rightward shift. ^{[2] [3]} Many news organizations predict Iowa to remain a likely to safe red state in 2024. ^[4]

In April 2023, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden officially announced a re-election campaign for 2024. ^[5] If he wins without the state again, he will become the first president since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944 to win another term without carrying the state.

Attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot, as he announced in April.

Caucuses

Democratic caucuses

Main article: 2024 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses

During the Iowa Democratic caucuses, in-person caucusing focusing only on party business was held on January 15, but voting on candidates will be done exclusively via mail-in ballots from January 12 until Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. This was the result of a compromise between the Iowa Democratic Party and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). Iowa traditionally holds its race first during the presidential primary and caucuses season, but the DNC originally wanted South Carolina to instead hold its race first on February 3. ^[6]

Iowa Democratic caucus, January 12–March 5, 2024

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Pledged	Unpledged	Total
Joe Biden (incumbent)	12,337	90.4%	40
Uncommitted	614	4.5%
Dean Phillips	394	2.9%
Marianne Williamson [lower-alpha 1]	307	2.2%
Total:	13,652	100.0%	40		46
Source: [7]

Republican caucuses

Main article: 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses

The Iowa Republican caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, the first-in-the-nation nomination contest of the 2024 Republican primaries. Former president Donald Trump won the primary with the largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in the Iowa caucuses. Trump's overwhelming victory in the state established his position early as the frontrunner.

Popular vote share by county

  Trump

•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%
•   70–80%

  Haley

•   30–40%

Iowa Republican precinct caucuses, January 15, 2024 ^[8]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage	Actual delegate count
			Bound	Unbound	Total
Donald Trump	56,243	51.0%	20	0	20
Ron DeSantis	23,491	21.3%	9	0	9
Nikki Haley	21,027	19.1%	8	0	8
Vivek Ramaswamy	8,430	7.6%	3	0	3
Ryan Binkley	768	0.7%	0	0	0
Asa Hutchinson	188	0.2%	0	0	0
Other	90	0.1%	0	0	0
Chris Christie (withdrawn)	35	<0.1%	0	0	0
Total:	110,272	100.00%	40	0	40

Libertarian caucuses

Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses

←  2020 January 15, 2024 2028 →

MA  →

Candidate Chase Oliver Michael Rectenwald Home state Georgia Pennsylvania Percentage 42.7% 16.9%   Candidate Mike ter Maat Joshua Smith Home state Florida Iowa Percentage 13.5% 13.5%

The Iowa Libertarian caucuses were held on January 15, 2024, its first as a recognized party in the state. ^[9] 2022 U.S. Senate candidate Chase Oliver from Georgia won the non-binding preferential vote with 42.7% of the vote. ^[10]

2024 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses ^[11]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Chase Oliver	38	42.70
Michael Rectenwald	15	16.85
Mike ter Maat	12	13.48
Joshua Smith	12	13.48
Vivek Ramaswamy	4	4.49
Mario Perales	2	2.25
Robert Sansone	2	2.25
Jacob Hornberger	1	1.12
Lars Mapstead	1	1.12
Art Olivier	1	1.12
None of the above	1	1.12
Total	89	100.00

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [12]	Solid R	December 19, 2023
Inside Elections [13]	Likely R	April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball [14]	Likely R	June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill [15]	Likely R	December 14, 2023
CNalysis [16]	Solid R	December 30, 2023
CNN [17]	Solid R	January 14, 2024

Polling

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Selzer & Co. [upper-alpha 1]	February 25–28, 2024	640 (LV)	± 3.9%	48%	33%	19% [upper-alpha 2]
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 3]	February 13–14, 2024	600 (LV)	± 3.9%	49%	40%	11%
John Zogby Strategies	January 2–4, 2024	500 (LV)	–	51%	39%	10%
Emerson College	December 15–17, 2023	1,094 (RV)	± 2.9%	48%	40%	12%
Emerson College	May 19–22, 2023	1,064 (RV)	± 2.9%	49%	38%	13%
Emerson College	October 2–4, 2022	959 (LV)	± 3.1%	47%	39%	14%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 3]	October 2–4, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	41%	8%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 3]	July 13–14, 2022	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	51%	40%	9%
Cygnal (R) [lower-alpha 3] [upper-alpha 3]	February 20–22, 2022	610 (LV)	± 3.9%	53%	38%	9%
Selzer & Co.	November 7–10, 2021	658 (LV)	± 3.8%	51%	40%	9%
Cygnal (R) [upper-alpha 3]	October 18–19, 2021	600 (LV)	± 4.0%	54%	41%	5%

Hypothetical polling

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size [lower-alpha 2]	Margin of error	Ron DeSantis Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Other / Undecided
Emerson College	May 19–22, 2023	1,064 (RV)	± 2.9%	45%	38%	17%

See also

• United States presidential elections in Iowa
• 2024 United States presidential election
• 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2024 United States elections

Notes

1. While voting was ongoing, Williamson suspended and then unsuspended her campaign.
2. Key:
   A – all adults
   RV – registered voters
   LV – likely voters
   V – unclear
3. Archived 2022-02-28 at the Wayback Machine

Partisan clients

1. Poll sponsored by the Des Moines Register & Mediacom Iowa
2. "Someone else" with 15%
3. This poll was sponsored by the Iowans for Tax Relief Foundation

References

1. Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
2. "Iowa Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
3. Murray, Isabella. "The congressional race that could indicate just how red Iowa has shifted". ABC News. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
4. "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
5. "Biden announces he is running for re-election, framing 2024 as a choice between 'more rights or fewer'". NBC News. April 25, 2023. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
6. "DNC's new calendar, will release caucus results on Super Tuesday". Iowa Public Radio. October 6, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
7. "Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Results". Des Moines Register . Retrieved March 5, 2024.
8. "Iowa Republican Presidential Nominating Process". The Green Papers .
9. "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces it will hold caucuses Jan. 15".
10. Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT 3. Retrieved January 17, 2024.
11. Bunge, Mike (January 16, 2024). "Libertarian Party of Iowa announces the winner of its statewide Presidential caucus". KIMT. Allen Media Broadcasting. Archived from the original on January 16, 2024. Retrieved January 16, 2024.
12. "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
13. "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
14. "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
15. "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
16. "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
17. "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN . Retrieved January 14, 2024.