2018 Iowa gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Iowa gubernatorial election
Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
←  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  →
Turnout61.15% Increase2.svg8.44pp
  Kim Reynolds by Gage Skidmore cropped and rotated.jpg Fred Hubbell (cropped).jpg
Nominee Kim Reynolds Fred Hubbell
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Adam Gregg Rita Hart
Popular vote667,275630,986
Percentage50.3%47.5%
Iowa gubernatorial election, 2018.svg
2018 Iowa Governor by Congressional District.svg
IA Governor 2018.svg
Reynolds:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Hubbell:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
Governor before election

Kim Reynolds
Republican

Elected Governor

Kim Reynolds
Republican

The 2018 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018. Incumbent Republican Governor Kim Reynolds ran for election to a full term, facing Democratic businessman Fred Hubbell, Libertarian Jake Porter, and independent candidate Gary Siegwarth.

Contents

On Election Day, Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote, a 2.8% margin of victory, and carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. This was the first Iowa gubernatorial election since 1998 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president.

Background

After the 2016 presidential election, President Donald Trump nominated then-Governor Terry Branstad to be the United States Ambassador to China. When Branstad was confirmed by the United States Senate, he resigned as Iowa Governor to assume the ambassadorship on May 24, 2017. Lieutenant Governor Kim Reynolds then became Governor of Iowa. [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominated

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Kim Reynolds
Newspaper
Politicians
  • George W. Bush, former Governor of Texas (1995-2000), President of the United States (2001-2009) [14]

Results

Republican primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Kim Reynolds (incumbent) 94,118 98.63
Republican Write-ins1,3071.37
Total votes95,425 100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Nate Boulton (withdrew)
Statewide official
State legislators
Organizations
Cathy Glasson
Elected officials
Iowa Democratic Party officials
  • Jason Frerichs, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus [62]
  • Dylan P. Funk, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member, vice-chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party Progressive Caucus [62]
  • Mason Fraker, Henry County Democratic Party vice-chairman [62]
  • Nora Taft, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member [62]
  • Evan Burger, 4th District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member [62]
  • Jessica Fears, 4th District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member [62]
  • Holly Herbert, 3rd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member [62]
  • Jon Green, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member [62]
  • Sarah J. Hinds, Linn County Democratic Party credentials committee chairperson [62]
  • Kate Revaux, 2nd District Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee member [62]
  • Alex Anderson, Iowa Democratic Party State Central Committee affirmative action chairperson [62]
  • Lindsey Ellickson, Linn County Democratic Party central committee member [62]
Labor union leaders
  • Chris Laursen, UAW Local 74 president [62]
Labor unions
Organizations
Fred Hubbell
Statewide officials
State legislators
Newspaper
Andy McGuire
John Norris
  • Marti Anderson, state representative
  • Jo Oldson, state representative
  • Brad Anderson, 2014 Democratic Secretary of State nominee
  • Tom Hockensmith, Polk County Supervisor
  • Rod Sullivan, Johnson County Supervisor
  • Travis Weipert, Johnson County Auditor
  • Andrew Wenthe, mayor of Fayette, former state representative
  • Brian Quirk, former state representative
  • Don Ruby, Iowa Democratic Party Secretary
  • Daryll Beal, former state senator
  • Norm Sterzenbach, former executive director, Iowa Democratic Party
  • Roger Thomas, former state representative
  • Marcia Nichols, former political director for AFSCME 61
  • Dave Schroeder, former state representative
Todd Prichard (withdrew)

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Nate
Boulton		Cathy
Glasson		Fred
Hubbell		Andrea
McGuire		Jon
Neiderbach		John
Norris		Ross
Wilburn		OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company May 13–15, 2018501± 4.4%20%13%31%5%–5%3%10%14%
Remington May 5–6, 20182,315± 2.0%20%7%46%3%–5%1%–18%
20-20 Insight Archived November 15, 2017, at the Wayback Machine November 8–10, 2017762± 3.6%13%6%22%3%2%5%1%–47%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Hubbell--70-80% Hubbell--60-70% Hubbell--50-60% Hubbell--40-50% Hubbell--<40% Glasson--<40% Norris--60-70% Boulton--<40% Iowa gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Hubbell—70–80%
  Hubbell—60–70%
  Hubbell—50–60%
  Hubbell—40–50%
  Hubbell—<40%
  Glasson—<40%
  Norris—60–70%
  Boulton—<40%
Democratic primary results [15]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Fred Hubbell 99,245 55.41
Democratic Cathy Glasson36,81520.55
Democratic John Norris20,49811.44
Democratic Andy McGuire9,4045.25
Democratic Nate Boulton (withdrawn)9,0825.07
Democratic Ross Wilburn 3,8802.17
Democratic Write-ins2000.01
Total votes179,124 100

Libertarian primary

Libertarian Party presidential nominee Gary Johnson received 3.8 percent of the votes in Iowa in 2016, surpassing the 2 percent threshold to attain full political party status. [77] As a result, the Libertarian Party was allowed to hold a primary to select a nominee. [77]

Candidates

Nominated

  • Jake Porter, business consultant

Declared

  • Marco Battaglia, musician [78]
  • Jake Porter, nominee for Secretary of State in 2010 and 2014 [79] [80] [81]

Endorsements

Jake Porter
Newspaper

Results

Libertarian primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Jake Porter 991 53.92
Libertarian Marco Battaglia70538.36
Libertarian Write-ins1427.73
Total votes1,838 100

Independents

Candidates

Withdrew

Endorsements

Brent Roske (withdrew)

General election

Debates

DatesLocationReynoldsHubbellLink
October 17, 2018 Sioux City, Iowa ParticipantParticipant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 21, 2018 Davenport, Iowa ParticipantParticipant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [90] TossupOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [91] TossupNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [92] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [93] Tilt D (flip)November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [94] Lean D (flip)November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [95] TossupNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [96] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [97] [lower-alpha 1] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Politico [98] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Governing [99] TossupNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ↑ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Fred
Hubbell (D)		Jake
Porter (L)		OtherUndecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018961–46%49%3%1% [100] –
Selzer & Company October 30 – November 2, 2018801± 3.5%44%46%2%1%7%
Emerson College October 29 – November 1, 20181,462± 2.7%49%45%–2%5%
University of Iowa October 8–22, 2018452–40%48%–5%6%
Selzer & Company September 17–20, 2018555± 4.2%41%43%7%0%9%
Emerson College September 6–8, 20181,000± 3.2%31%36%–7%26%
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%42%37%–12%10%
Hypothetical polling
with Nate Boulton
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Nate
Boulton (D)		OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%41%37%11%11%
with Cathy Glasson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Cathy
Glasson (D)		OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%44%31%14%12%
with generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
20/20 Insights (D-Mowrer) June 19–21, 2017526± 4.3%44%39%17%
with John Norris
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		John
Norris (D)		OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%41%30%14%15%
with Andy McGuire
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Kim
Reynolds (R)		Andy
McGuire (D)		OtherUndecided
Selzer & Company January 28–31, 2018801± 3.5%42%30%15%13%

Results

While pre-election polls showed Reynolds trailing Hubbell, [101] Reynolds won 50.3% of the vote on Election Day, primarily by sweeping every county west of Des Moines and dominating the 4th Congressional District (she lost the other three). [102] Ultimately, she carried 88 of Iowa's 99 counties. [103] She became the first female governor of Iowa elected in her own right. [104]

Iowa gubernatorial election, 2018 [105]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Kim Reynolds (incumbent) 667,275 50.26% -8.73%
Democratic Fred Hubbell 630,98647.53%+10.26%
Libertarian Jake Porter21,4261.61%-0.19%
Independent Gary Siegwarth7,4630.56%N/A
Write-in 4880.04%N/A
Total votes1,327,638 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Despite losing, Hubbell won 3 of 4 congressional districts. [106]

DistrictReynoldsHubbellRepresentative
1st 48.05%49.31% Abby Finkenauer
2nd 47.29%50.72% Dave Loebsack
3rd 47.03%50.94% Cindy Axne
4th 59.33%38.63% Steve King

See also

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References

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  72. ↑ Cynthia Fodor (July 26, 2017). "Former Lt. Gov. to Chair Hubbell Campaign". KCCI-TV. Retrieved July 27, 2017.
  73. ↑ Jay Inslee. ".@FredHubbell is a great candidate, ready to lead Iowa, and take it back for Democrats. Iowans are ready for change". Twitter.
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  75. ↑ Lynch, James Q. "McGuire gets Iowa governor endorsement from former Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean". The Gazette. Retrieved September 21, 2017.
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  83. ↑ "GaryForGov". GaryForGov. Archived from the original on December 15, 2018. Retrieved September 15, 2018.
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  104. ↑ Ferris, Sarah (November 7, 2018). "Kim Reynolds is Iowa's first elected female governor". Politico.
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