2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

Last updated

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
  2014 November 6, 2018 2022  
  Tom Wolf governor portrait 2019 (cropped).jpg Scott Wagner - Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Candidate 2018 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Tom Wolf Scott Wagner
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate John Fetterman Jeff Bartos
Popular vote2,895,6622,039,899
Percentage57.8%40.7%

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
PA Gov 2018 by Congressional District.svg
PA Governor 2018 Precinct Results Fixed.svg
Wolf:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Wagner:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      40–50%     50%     No data

Governor before election

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk. [1] [2] The primary elections were held on May 15. [3] This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2018 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

Contents

Republicans flipped the counties of Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill. Meanwhile, this was the first time since Bob Casey Jr.'s landslide State Treasurer win in 2004 that Cumberland County voted for the Democrat in a statewide election.

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidate

Nominated
Results
Democratic primary results
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent) 741,676 100.0
Total votes741,676 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Kathi Cozzone
State legislators
Madeleine Dean (withdrawn)
Federal officials
State legislators
John Fetterman
Federal officials
State officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Individuals
Newspapers
Mike Stack
Federal officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Aryanna
Berringer
Kathi
Cozzone
Madeleine
Dean
John
Fetterman
Craig
Lehman
Mike
Stack
Undecided
Independence Communications & Campaigns, LLC February 2–4, 2018467± 4.53%2%10%4%20%1%8%55%

Primary results

Results by county:
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Fetterman--70-80%
Fetterman--60-70%
Fetterman--50-60%
Fetterman--40-50%
Fetterman--<40%
Ahmad--40-50%
Ahmad--<40%
Cozzone--60-70%
Cozzone--<40%
Stack--<40% Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Fetterman—70–80%
  Fetterman—60–70%
  Fetterman—50–60%
  Fetterman—40–50%
  Fetterman—<40%
  Ahmad—40–50%
  Ahmad—<40%
  Cozzone—60–70%
  Cozzone—<40%
  Stack—<40%
Democratic primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Fetterman 288,229 38.0
Democratic Nina Ahmad 182,30923.8
Democratic Kathi Cozzone142,41018.6
Democratic Mike Stack (incumbent)127,25916.6
Democratic Ray Sosa27,4273.6
Total votes767,634 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in the primary

  • Laura Ellsworth, attorney [29] [30]
  • Paul Mango, businessman and former U.S. Army officer [31]
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Laura Ellsworth
Municipal officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Paul Mango
U.S. Senators
Organizations
Scott Wagner
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Mike Turzai (Withdrawn)
State Senators
State Representatives

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Laura
Ellsworth
Paul
Mango
Scott
Wagner
OtherUndecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research May 4–8, 2018545± 4.2%18%23%37%1%22%
ColdSpark Media (R-Ellsworth) May 201817%24%28%30%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) April 2–3, 2018500± 4.5%9%24%50%17%
Revily (R-American Principles Project) March 13–15, 2018800± 3.4%4%18%20%57%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) Archived October 7, 2017, at the Wayback Machine September 18–20, 2017400± 4.9%16%45%39%
5%13%45%37%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Scott
Wagner
Paul
Mango
Mike
Turzai
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) April 9–10, 2017500± 4.5%38%8%10%45%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Scott
Wagner
Paul
Mango
Undecided
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) September 18–20, 2017400± 4.9%45%16%39%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) April 9–10, 2017500± 4.5%42%13%46%

Results

Results by county:
Wagner--60-70%
Wagner--50-60%
Wagner--40-50%
Mango--40-50%
Mango--50-60% Pennsylvania gubernatorial Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Wagner—60–70%
  Wagner—50–60%
  Wagner—40–50%
  Mango—40–50%
  Mango—50–60%
Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Scott Wagner 324,013 44.3
Republican Paul Mango270,01436.9
Republican Laura Ellsworth137,65018.8
Total votes731,677 100.0

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Jeff Bartos, businessman (running with Scott Wagner) [58]

Eliminated in the primary

  • Kathy Coder, political activist [59]
  • Peg Luksik, political activist [60]
  • Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County commissioner (running with Paul Mango) [61]
Removed from the ballot
Withdrawn
Considered potential
Declined

Endorsements

Jeff Bartos

Results

Results by county:
Bartos--60-70%
Bartos--50-60%
Bartos--40-50%
Bartos--<40%
Coder--40-50%
Coder--<40%
Vaughan--70-80%
Vaughan--50-60%
Vaughan--40-50%
Luksik--50-60%
Luksik--<40% Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial Republican primary, 2018.svg
Results by county:
  Bartos—60–70%
  Bartos—50–60%
  Bartos—40–50%
  Bartos—<40%
  Coder—40–50%
  Coder—<40%
  Vaughan—70–80%
  Vaughan—50–60%
  Vaughan—40–50%
  Luksik—50–60%
  Luksik—<40%
Republican primary
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Bartos 317,619 46.8
Republican Kathy Coder147,80521.8
Republican Diana Irey Vaughan119,40017.6
Republican Peg Luksik93,66713.8
Total votes678,491 100.0

Green Party

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick

Endorsements

Paul Glover

Libertarian Party

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Ken Krawchuk, technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2014 [75]

Lieutenant governor

Candidates

Nominated

  • Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur (running with Ken Krawchuk)

General election

Candidates

Debates

Endorsements

Scott Wagner (R)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Individuals
Organizations
Tom Wolf (D)
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Representatives
Individuals
Organizations

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [98] Likely DOctober 26, 2018
The Washington Post [99] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight [100] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report [101] Likely DNovember 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball [102] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics [103] Safe DNovember 4, 2018
Daily Kos [104] Safe DNovember 5, 2018
Fox News [105] [lower-alpha 1] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Politico [106] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Governing [107] Likely DNovember 5, 2018
Notes
  1. The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom
Wolf (D)
Scott
Wagner (R)
OtherUndecided
Change Research November 2–4, 20181,83353%42%3% [108]
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6%54%39%1%6%
Muhlenberg College Archived November 2, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 28 – November 1, 2018421± 5.5%58%37%
Franklin & Marshall College October 22–28, 2018214 LV± 9.5%59%33%5%
537 RV± 6.0%57%27%6% [109] 10%
Morning Consult Archived October 15, 2018, at the Wayback Machine October 1–2, 20181,188± 3.0%48%36%16%
Franklin & Marshall College September 17–23, 2018204 LV52%30%17%
545 RV± 6.1%52%28%2% [110] 18%
Ipsos September 12–20, 20181,080± 3.0%55%38%2%6%
Muhlenberg College September 13–19, 2018404± 5.5%55%36%6% [111] 2%
Rasmussen Reports September 12–13, 2018800± 3.5%52%40%3%5%
Franklin & Marshall College August 20–26, 2018222 LV52%35%1%12%
511 RV± 6.1%51%32%5% [112] 14%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018713± 4.2%54%40%<1%6%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) August 13–15, 20182,012± 3.6%46%43%3%8%
Suffolk University Archived June 27, 2018, at the Wayback Machine June 21–25, 2018500± 4.4%49%36%1%14%
Franklin & Marshall College June 4–10, 2018472± 6.5%48%29%1%23%
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018414± 5.5%47%31%5%16%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018137± 6.8%38%21%6%35%
Hypothetical polling
with Paul Mango
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom
Wolf (D)
Paul
Mango (R)
OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018414± 5.5%47%27%5%22%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018143± 6.8%49%22%4%25%
with Laura Ellsworth
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom
Wolf (D)
Laura
Ellsworth (R)
OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018414± 5.5%46%26%4%24%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018143± 6.8%51%22%2%25%

Results

The election was not close, with Wolf defeating Wagner by about 17 percentage points. Wolf won by running up large margins in Allegheny County, including Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia County, including Philadelphia. Wolf's victory can also be attributed to his strong performance in Philadelphia suburbs.

2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election [113]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent)
John Fetterman
2,895,652 57.77% +2.84%
Republican Scott Wagner
Jeff Bartos
2,039,88240.70%-4.37%
Libertarian Ken Krawchuk
Kathleen Smith
49,2290.98%N/A
Green Paul Glover
Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick
27,7920.55%N/A
Total votes5,012,555 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Gov. Tom Wolf won 12 of 18 congressional districts, including 3 that elected Republicans. [114]

DistrictWagnerWolfRepresentative
1st 40%59% Brian Fitzpatrick
2nd 20%79% Brendan Boyle
3rd 5%93% Dwight Evans
4th 32%66% Madeleine Dean
5th 29%69% Mary Gay Scanlon
6th 37%61% Chrissy Houlahan
7th 39%59% Susan Wild
8th 43%56% Matt Cartwright
9th 54%44% Dan Meuser
10th 44%54% Scott Perry
11th 53%45% Lloyd Smucker
12th 59%39% Tom Marino
13th 63%35% John Joyce
14th 51%48% Guy Reschenthaler
15th 60%38% Glenn Thompson
16th 48.8%49.5% Mike Kelly
17th 39%59% Conor Lamb
18th 26%72% Mike Doyle

See also

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  48. 1 2 Mike Pence. "Proud to be in Philadelphia today campaigning for @realScottWagner- the next great governor of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania! Scott will fight for all the hardworking people of Pennsylvanian! Support Scott Wagner & #FixPA!". Twitter.
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  53. 1 2 Diamond and Silk. "Vote @realScottWagner for Governor of Pennsylvania. Vote Right, Vote Red, Vote Republican! #ElectionDay". Twitter.
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  79. Tom Wolf. "Thank you @ericholder for joining me to talk about fair maps & criminal justice reform. I am proud that Pennsylvania now has a fair map that better represents PA'ians & we're currently taking action towards criminal justice reform with a new clean state legislation & initiatives". Twitter.
  80. Tom Wolf. "BREAKING: @BarackObama just endorsed my re-election! Stand with President Obama and chip in today to help our campaign win this November →". Twitter.
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  82. Ricardo Rosselló. ".@GovernorTomWolf – thank you for strongly responding to Puerto Rico's call for assistance. Your leadership and friendship during our darkest hour and your Vision of progress and equality for the state of Pennsylvania make you the best choice in next Tuesday's election". Twitter.
  83. Dwight Evans. "Standing in support of my governor @WolfforPA in West Philly yesterday. #PAVotesBlue #BlueWave2018". Twitter.
  84. Madeleine Dean [@mad4pa] (November 4, 2018). "Let's Turn PA Blue! Great time rallying for PA Democrats with @WolfForPA, @Bob_Casey, @JohnFetterman, @JoshShapiroPA, @DwightEvansPA, @kenlawrencejr, @VAArk, @ciresiforpa, @kmuthPAsenate44, & @Fields4PASenate. Press button D-11 at the polls to vote Democratic! #Mad4PA #PA4 #PA04" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  85. 1 2 Tom Wolf. "There was great energy yesterday at the Chester City Rally The Vote event with Mayor Thaddeus Kirkland, @Bob_Casey, @marygayscanlon, and Rep. Brian Kirkland! Let's continue to get out the vote for Democratic candidates up and down the ballot. #PAVotesBlue". Twitter.
  86. Leanne Krueger. "There's still time to pick up a canvass shift before tonight's #PAVotesBlue rally with @WolfForPA @Bob_Casey @JohnFetterman! Four elections in four years and our team of volunteers grows every cycle. Grateful! #GOTV #MakeItHapPENN". Twitter.
  87. Laura Gómez. "Inspired by these hard working activists & volunteers advocating for people to vote in PA, and very hopeful for their progressive governor @WolfForPA". Twitter.
  88. Tom Wolf. "Thank you @MeekMill, @KevinHart4real, & @MichaelGRubin for standing with me". Twitter.
  89. Meek Mill. "VOTE @governortomwolf! We're in the middle of some important times. Your vote is more important than ever!". Twitter.
  90. Tom Wolf. "Thank you @tomperez for visiting Pennsylvania and standing with us in November!". Twitter.
  91. Tom Wolf. "Thank you @ZacharyQuinto for your support and for coming home to Pittsburgh to canvas!". Twitter.
  92. Michael Rubin. "Get out and vote next week for ONE America/One Pennsylvania!! This is our guy. @WolfForPA". Twitter.
  93. Wanda Sykes [@iamwandasykes] (October 22, 2018). "Thank you Governor Wolf. #WontBeErased" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  94. Democratic Governors. ".@WolfForPA is proof: electing a Democratic governor is the best way to end Republican gerrymandering and protect fair district maps". Twitter.
  95. Human Rights Campaign. "HRC Endorses PA Governor Tom Wolf". Twitter.
  96. PA Democratic Party. "While the @PAGOP pals around with Trump and his billionaire buddies, @Bob_Casey and @WolfForPA are keeping company of a different kind". Twitter.
  97. Planned Parenthood Action. ".@PPAdvocatesPA is all in to re-elect @WolfforPA! Special shout out to @MsLauraGomez for joining us to #PinkOutTheVote this past weekend". Twitter.
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  108. Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%
  109. Ken Krawchuk (L) with 3%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 2%
  110. Ken Krawchuk (L) with 1%, Paul Glover (G) with 0%; other with 1%
  111. Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%, neither/other with 3%
  112. Ken Krawchuk (L) and Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  113. "2018 General Election Official Returns". Pennsylvania Department of State. November 6, 2018. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  114. Giroux, Greg [@greggiroux] (February 2, 2019). "Pennsylvania 2018 Governor and U.S. Senate election results by congressional district: pic.twitter.com/NYLoJbUtrm" (Tweet) via Twitter.
Debates
Official gubernatorial campaign websites
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites