2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election

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2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
Flag of Pennsylvania.svg
←  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  →
Turnout36.1%(Decrease2.svg5.6%)
  Governor Tom Wolf official portrait 2015 (cropped2).jpg Governor Corbett cropped portrait May 2014.jpg
Nominee Tom Wolf Tom Corbett
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Mike Stack Jim Cawley
Popular vote1,920,355 1,575,511
Percentage54.93%45.07%
2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election by congressional district results.svg
2014 PA Governor election by Precinct.svg
Wolf:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Corbett:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      50%     No data
Governor before election

Tom Corbett
Republican

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Governor Tom Corbett was defeated by Tom Wolf, [1] becoming the first incumbent Pennsylvania governor to lose re-election since William Bigler in 1854, and the first Republican to ever do so. [2] [a] This was the only governorship Democrats flipped in the 2014 midterms. Wolf was sworn in on January 20, 2015, marking the most recent time the Pennsylvania governor's office changed partisan control.

Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track". [3] Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the country, [4] The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch, [5] and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".

Democrats flipped the counties of Erie, Lawrence, Beaver, Alleghany, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Centre, Clinton, Northumberland, Dauphin, Luzerne, Monroe, Northampton, Carbon, Schuylkill, Lehigh, Berks, Bucks, and Chester. Meanwhile, this is the last time these counties have voted Democratic in a statewide election: Lawrence, Greene, Fayette, Cambria, Clinton, Northumberland, Carbon, and Schuylkill.

This is the first Pennsylvania gubernatorial election since 1982 in which the winner was of the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1934 this occurred during a Democratic administration. This also remains the last time that a Pennsylvania gubernatorial election has been decided by a single-digit margin, as Democrats have won each subsequent election by large double-digit margins. Additionally, it was the most recent election where Pennsylvania voted for a gubernatorial candidate of a different party from fellow Rust Belt states Michigan and Wisconsin. [6]

Background

Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010. [7] This has been referred to as "the cycle", [8] [9] but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860. [10] The last incumbent governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms. [11] Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.

Republican primary

Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot. [12] NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with "Re-Elect Tom Corbett" posted on his truck.

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Tom Corbett

Elected officials

Individuals

Others

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett		Bob
Guzzardi		Undecided
Gravis Marketing [44] January 22, 2014956± ?42%23%35%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett		Someone
else		Undecided
Gravis Marketing [44] January 22, 2014956± ?38%41%22%
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013491± 4.4%42%47%11%
Public Policy Polling [46] March 8–10, 2013373± 5.1%37%49%13%
Public Policy Polling [47] January 4–6, 2013490± 6%45%37%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett		Bruce
Castor		Jim
Gerlach		Mike
Kelly		Tom
Smith		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013491± 4.4%42%—31%——26%
42%——31%—27%
Public Policy Polling [46] March 8–10, 2013373± 5.1%43%23%———35%
37%———33%30%
Harper Polling [48] February 27–28, 2013±49.04%21.07%———29.89%
Public Policy Polling [47] January 4–6, 2013490± 6%51%11%———38%

Results

Republican primary results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tom Corbett (incumbent) Unopposed
Total votes373,465 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Robert McCord

Individuals

Organizations

Kathleen McGinty

Individuals

Organizations

Tom Wolf

Individuals

Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Hanger		Tom
Knox		Jo Ellen
Litz		Robert
McCord		Kathleen
McGinty		Max
Myers		Ed
Pawl-
owski		Allyson
Schwartz		Joe
Sestak		Tim
Solobay		Mike
Stack		Jack
Wagner		Tom
Wolf		OtherUnde-
cided
Muhlenberg [117] May 13–15, 2014414±5%———11%7%——16%————41%—25%
Harper [118] May 12–13, 2014559±4.14%———15%5%——15%————50%—16%
F&M College [119] May 6–12, 2014530±4.3%———11%6%——19%————41%3%20%
Muhlenberg [120] April 28–30, 2014417±5%———13%3%——14%————42%—28%
GQR** [121] Mar. 31–Apr. 3, 2014600±?———14%5%——12%————52%—16%
F&M College [119] March 25–31, 2014524±4.3%———8%6%——9%————40%6%31%
Harper [122] Feb. 22–23, 2014501±4.38%7%——8%6%——14%———7%40%—19%
F&M College [123] Feb. 18–23, 2014548±4.2%1%——3%1%——9%————36%1%48%
PPP [124] Nov. 22–25, 2013436±4.7%8%—2%10%9%2%4%21%———17%2%—27%
Harper [125] Nov. 9–10, 2013649±3.85%7%——12%15%—6%22%————5%—34%
GHY^ [126] Aug. 27–29, 2013506± 4.4%———6%6%——25%————6%—57%
BSG* [127] July 16–18, 2013800±3.46%———10%15%——34%————11%—30%
Quinnipiac [128] May 30–Jun. 4, 2013460± 4.6%1%——4%5%1%1%18%——1%—2%1%63%
Quinnipiac [129] April 19–24, 2013547± 4.2%0%——3%——1%15%15%—1%—3%2%60%
GSG [130] March 9–12, 2013601± 4%1%——5%5%—3%18%15%3%1%—2%—47%
1%——7%7%—3%21%—3%2%—2%—54%
———12%———31%————7%—49%
GQR** [131] March 2–7, 2013602±3.99%1%1%—7%3%——16%21%—2%—3%1%45%
Harper [132] Feb. 27–28, 2013 ?±?0.82%2.88%—7%———18.52%19.75%———1.23%—49.79%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Wolf--80-90% Wolf--70-80% Wolf--60-70% Wolf--50-60% Wolf--40-50% Pennsylvania gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2014.svg
Results by county:
  Wolf—80–90%
  Wolf—70–80%
  Wolf—60–70%
  Wolf—50–60%
  Wolf—40–50%
Democratic primary results [49]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tom Wolf 488,917 57.86%
Democratic Allyson Schwartz 149,02717.64%
Democratic Rob McCord 142,31116.84%
Democratic Katie McGinty 64,7547.66%
Total votes845,009 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Spending

As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million. [133]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [134] Likely D (flip)November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [135] Safe D (flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [136] Likely D (flip)November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [137] Likely D (flip)November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Tom
Wolf (D)		OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College [138] October 27–29, 2014409± 5%39%51%6%4%
Magellan Strategies [139] October 27–28, 20141,433± 2.6%43%50%—7%
Harper Polling [140] October 26–27, 2014680± 3.76%40%50%—10%
Franklin & Marshall [141] October 20–26, 2014326 LV± 5.1%40%53%1%5%
738 RV± 3.4%37%53%1%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [142] October 16–23, 20143,111± 3%39%52%0%8%
Magellan Strategies [143] October 13–14, 20141,131± 2.9%42%49%—9%
Quinnipiac University [144] September 30 – October 5, 2014907± 3.3%38%55%2%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [145] September 20 – October 1, 20143,283± 2%41%50%0%9%
Robert Morris University [146] September 26–29, 2014500± 4%34%57%—9%
Mercyhurst University [147] September 15–24, 2014479± 4.48%28%43%2%27%
Franklin & Marshall [148] September 15–22, 2014231 LV± 6.4%37%57%2%5%
520 RV± 4.3%33%54%4%9%
Magellan Strategies [149] September 17–18, 20141,120± 2.9%40%49%—11%
Muhlenberg College [150] September 16–18, 2014429± 5%33%54%4%9%
Quinnipiac University [151] September 3–8, 20141,161± 2.9%35%59%2%4%
Harper Polling [152] September 2–3, 2014665± 3.2%41%52%—7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [153] August 18 – September 2, 20143,560± 2%39%50%2%10%
Robert Morris University [154] August 18–22, 2014500± 4.5%25%56%—20%
Franklin & Marshall [155] August 18–25, 2014520± 4.3%24%49%1%25%
Magellan Strategies [156] July 30–31, 20141,214± 2.83%38%50%—12%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [157] July 5–24, 20144,150± ?39%52%2%7%
Franklin & Marshall [158] June 23–29, 2014502± 4.4%25%47%1%27%
Quinnipiac University [159] May 29 – June 2, 20141,308± 2.7%33%53%1%13%
Public Policy Polling [160] May 30 – June 1, 2014835± 3.4%30%55%—15%
Rasmussen Reports [161] May 27–28, 2014750± 4%31%51%4%14%
Quinnipiac University [162] February 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%33%52%1%13%
Gravis Marketing [163] January 22–23, 2014717± 4%34%41%—24%
Quinnipiac University [164] December 11–16, 20131,061± 3%37%44%1%19%
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%32%44%—24%
Quinnipiac University [165] March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%39%39%2%20%
Public Policy Polling [166] March 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%33%42%—25%
Public Policy Polling [166] January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%29%—30%
Hypothetical polling

With Corbett

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		John
Hanger (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [162] February 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%37%40%4%20%
Quinnipiac University [164] December 11–16, 20131,061± 3%42%37%2%19%
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%32%51%—16%
Quinnipiac University [165] March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%42%41%2%15%
Public Policy Polling [166] March 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%34%41%—25%
Public Policy Polling [166] January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%37%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Kathleen
Kane (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [166] January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%42%42%—16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Tom
Knox (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [165] March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%40%39%1%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Robert
McCord (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [162] February 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%36%43%4%17%
Gravis Marketing [163] January 22–23, 2014717± 4%36%48%—16%
Quinnipiac University [164] December 11–16, 20131,061± 3%39%42%2%18%
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%31%50%—18%
Quinnipiac University [167] May 30–June 4, 20131,032± 3.1%35%43%1%20%
Quinnipiac University [168] April 19–24, 20131,235± 2.8%35%44%1%20%
Quinnipiac University [165] March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%42%38%1%19%
Public Policy Polling [166] March 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%34%45%—21%
Public Policy Polling [166] January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%35%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Kathleen
McGinty (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [162] February 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%38%40%3%18%
Quinnipiac University [164] December 11–16, 20131,061± 3%37%44%1%18%
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%32%47%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Michael
Nutter (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [166] January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%38%—21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Ed
Pawlowski (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [164] December 11–16, 20131,061± 3%39%41%2%18%
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%33%45%—22%
Quinnipiac University [165] March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%38%44%2%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Ed
Rendell (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [166] January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%40%46%—14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Allyson
Schwartz (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [162] February 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%38%44%3%15%
Gravis Marketing [163] January 22–23, 2014717± 4%35%44%—21%
Quinnipiac University [164] December 11–16, 20131,061± 3%37%45%1%16%
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%33%48%—20%
Benenson Strategy Group [169] August 6–8, 2013600± 4%41%49%—10%
Quinnipiac University [167] May 30–June 4, 20131,032± 3.1%35%45%1%19%
Public Opinion Strategies [170] April 30–May 2, 2013600± 4%34%46%—20%
Quinnipiac University [168] April 19–24, 20131,235± 2.8%34%47%2%17%
Quinnipiac University [165] March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%39%42%1%18%
Public Policy Polling [166] March 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%34%45%—21%
Benenson Strategy Group [171] January 15–17, 2013600± 4%42%50%—9%
Public Policy Polling [166] January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%34%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Joe
Sestak (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [168] April 19–24, 20131,235± 2.8%34%48%1%17%
Quinnipiac University [165] March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%38%47%1%14%
Public Policy Polling [166] March 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%34%45%—21%
Public Policy Polling [166] January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%42%36%—23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Mike
Stack (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [165] March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%39%40%1%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Jack
Wagner (D)		OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac University [162] February 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%37%44%3%15%
Quinnipiac University [164] December 11–16, 20131,061± 3%36%48%1%15%
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%30%50%—20%

With Gerlach

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jim
Gerlach (R)		Allyson
Schwartz (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%31%39%—29%

With Guzzardi

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Guzzardi (R)		Robert
McCord (D)		OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [163] January 22–23, 2014717± 4%31%43%—26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Guzzardi (R)		Allyson
Schwartz (D)		OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [163] January 22–23, 2014717± 4%33%42%—25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Bob
Guzzardi (R)		Tom
Wolf (D)		OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [163] January 22–23, 2014717± 4%30%38%—31%

With Kelly

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mike
Kelly (R)		Allyson
Schwartz (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [45] November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%33%41%—27%

Results

2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election [172]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Tom Wolf
Mike Stack 		1,920,355 54.93% +9.42%
Republican Tom Corbett (incumbent)
Jim Cawley (incumbent)		1,575,51145.07%−9.42%
Total votes3,495,866 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Corbett won 10 of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf. However, at the time, most of the districts were gerrymanders drawn by Republican legislators. [173] Wolf won the 6th, 7th and 8th districts, which all elected Republicans to the House.

DistrictCorbettWolfRepresentative
1st 16%84% Bob Brady
2nd 8%92% Chaka Fattah
3rd 54%46% Mike Kelly
4th 56%44% Scott Perry
5th 51%49% Glenn Thompson
6th 49%51% Jim Gerlach
Ryan Costello
7th 48%52% Patrick Meehan
8th 48%52% Mike Fitzpatrick
9th 55%45% Bill Shuster
10th 59%41% Tom Marino
11th 53%47% Lou Barletta
12th 53%47% Keith Rothfus
13th 30%70% Brendan Boyle
14th 30%70% Mike Doyle
15th 50%50% Charlie Dent
16th 54%46% Joe Pitts
17th 39%61% Matt Cartwright
18th 54%46% Tim Murphy

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ In the mid-1800s, governors served three-year terms, and were limited to serving no more than six years of every nine. Beginning with the election of 1874, they were limited to one four-year term. A change to the state constitution in 1968 permitted governors to serve two consecutive four-year terms, then wait at least one term before serving again, with no lifetime limit.

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Toomey was reelected to a second term in a close race, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford. With a margin of 1.43%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in New Hampshire.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial election</span>

The Pennsylvania lieutenant gubernatorial election of 2014 took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania, the winners of the lieutenant gubernatorial primary elections join the ticket of their party's gubernatorial nominee.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Pennsylvania Senate election</span>

The 2014 elections for the Pennsylvania State Senate were held on November 4, 2014, with all even-numbered districts being contested. Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania</span>

The 2018 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. The primary elections were held on May 15. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. ran for re-election to a third term. Casey, who faced no primary opposition, defeated the Republican nominee, Lou Barletta, Green Party nominee Neal Gale, and Libertarian Party nominee Dale Kerns. Casey was the first senator to be elected to a third term from Pennsylvania since Arlen Specter in 1992, and the first Pennsylvania Democrat to be popularly elected to three terms in the Senate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election</span>

The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party, Paul Glover and Libertarian Party, Ken Krawchuk. The primary elections were held on May 15. This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election</span>

The 2022 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania. Democratic state attorney general Josh Shapiro defeated Republican state senator Doug Mastriano to win his first term in office. Shapiro succeeded Democratic incumbent Tom Wolf, who was term limited.

References

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