2014 United States Senate election in Montana

Last updated

2014 United States Senate election in Montana
Flag of Montana.svg
  2008 November 4, 2014 2020  
  Steve Daines, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Steve Daines Amanda Curtis [lower-alpha 1]
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote213,709148,184
Percentage57.79%40.07%

2014 United States Senate election in Montana results map by county.svg
County results
Daines:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Curtis:     50–60%     60–70%

U.S. senator before election

John Walsh [lower-alpha 2]
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Steve Daines
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Montana took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Montana, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Democratic Senator Max Baucus, who had announced he would retire and not seek a seventh term, resigned in February 2014 in order to accept an appointment as United States Ambassador to China under President Barack Obama. Democrat John Walsh, the Lieutenant Governor of Montana, who was already running for Baucus' seat when Baucus was named to the ambassadorship, was appointed to replace Baucus by Governor Steve Bullock. [1]

Walsh won the Democratic primary on June 3 and ran for a first full term in office, but withdrew from the race on August 7, 2014, due to allegations that he had plagiarized a term paper while attending the Army War College. [2] Democrats selected Amanda Curtis, a state representative from Butte, to replace Walsh as the party's nominee at a convention in Helena on August 16. [3] Steve Daines, the incumbent U.S. Representative from Montana's at-large congressional district, easily won the Republican nomination.

Daines defeated Curtis 57.9% to 40.0%, while Libertarian Roger Roots won 2.2%. Daines and Arkansas' Tom Cotton became just the 18th and 19th U.S. House freshmen to win U.S. Senate races over the last 100 years, and just the third and fourth over the last 40 years. [4] Daines became the first Republican to win this Senate seat since 1907, as well as the first to ever be popularly elected to the seat.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

John Walsh

Elected officials

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh
Dirk
Adams
John
Bohlinger
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [33] November 15–17, 2013381± 5%39%3%31%27%
Harper Polling [34] January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%23%2%23%52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus
Brian
Schweitzer
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [35] June 16–19, 2011333± 5.4%34%51%14%
Public Policy Polling [36] November 28–30, 2011573± 4.1%35%51%14%
Public Policy Polling [37] April 26–29, 2012332± 5.4%37%48%15%
Public Policy Polling [37] September 10–11, 2012201± 5.4%36%40%24%
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 2013371± 5.1%35%54%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau
Brian
Schweitzer
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling [39] April 27–28, 2013165± 7.63%14%78%8%

Results

Results by county
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Walsh
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Bohlinger
50-60% 2014 MT US Senate Democratic primary.svg
Results by county
  Walsh
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Bohlinger
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Walsh (incumbent) 48,665 64.04%
Democratic John Bohlinger 17,18722.62%
Democratic Dirk Adams10,13913.34%
Total votes75,991 100.00%

Democratic convention

Because Walsh withdrew, a nominating convention was held to pick a new nominee prior to August 20. [41] The state party called a convention for August 16, and voting delegates were members of the State Central Committee, specifically: "one chair and one vice chair from each existing county central committee; one state committeeman and one state committeewoman from each county central committee; all voting members of the State Party Executive Board; the president of each chartered organization of the Montana Democratic Party; Montana State House leadership, and Montana State Senate leaders, and all Democrats currently holding statewide or federal office." [42]

Candidates

Momentary buzz was created by a movement to draft actor Jeff Bridges for the nomination, with over 1,000 people signing a petition on Change.org and a Twitter account, DudeSenator, being created online. Bridges, who lives part-time and owns property in the Paradise Valley south of Livingston, Montana, declined the offer on the Howard Stern show, noting the disapproval of his wife. Other news outlets noted that he also was not registered to vote in Montana. [43] [44]

Potential

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Amanda Curtis

Elected officials

Organizations

Results

Democratic convention results [71]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Amanda Curtis 82 64.0%
Democratic Dirk Adams4636.0%
Total votes128 100.0%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Steve Daines

Elected officials

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [33] November 15–17, 2013469± 4.5%66%7%27%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines
Champ
Edmunds
Marc
Racicot
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Harper Polling [39] April 27–28, 2013472± 4.51%26%3%42%6%22%
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013340± 5.3%28%5%47%5%14%

Results

Republican primary results [40]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Steve Daines 110,565 83.37%
Republican Susan Cundiff11,9098.98%
Republican Champ Edmunds 10,1517.65%
Total votes132,625 100.00%

Libertarian nomination

Candidates

Declared

Independents

Candidates

Declined

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [95] Solid R (flip)November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [96] Safe R (flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [97] Safe R (flip)November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [98] Safe R (flip)November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Daines (R)
Amanda
Curtis (D)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports [99] August 18–19, 2014750± 4%55%35%2%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [100] August 18 – September 2, 2014684± 5%53%35%1%11%
Gravis Marketing [101] September 29–30, 2014535± 4%54%41%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [102] September 20 – October 1, 2014549± 5%55%34%0%10%
The MSU-Billings Poll [103] October 6–11, 2014410± 5%47%31%2% [104] 21%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [102] October 16–23, 2014497± 6%56%38%0%6%
Gravis Marketing [105] October 23–24, 2014604± 4%53%39%8%
Hypothetical polling

With Adams

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dirk
Adams (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Harper Polling [34] January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%20%44%36%

with Baucus

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%44%49%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%47%37%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%46%43%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%42%47%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Max
Baucus (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%45%38%16%

With Bohlinger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [33] November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%36%51%13%
Harper Polling [34] January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%32%43%25%
Harper Polling [106] April 7–8, 2014604± 4.3%33%44%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [33] November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%37%39%24%

With Juneau

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%38%48%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%41%34%25%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%37%52%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Denise
Juneau (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%42%38%21%

With Keenan

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%39%49%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%41%36%23%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%40%45%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%38%50%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Nancy
Keenan (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%40%40%20%

With Lindeen

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%37%49%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%39%34%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%35%52%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Monica
Lindeen (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%39%37%24%

With Schweitzer

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%48%45%7%
Harper Polling [39] April 27–28, 2013771± 3.53%50%40%10%
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%48%45%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%52%37%12%
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%52%37%11%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Tim
Fox (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%49%43%8%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Marc
Racicot (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%45%46%9%
Harper Polling [39] April 27–28, 2013771± 3.53%47%43%10%
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%46%47%6%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Brian
Schweitzer (D)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [38] February 15–17, 20131,011± 3.1%49%39%13%
Public Policy Polling [93] June 21–23, 2013807± 3.4%52%38%10%

With Walsh

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh (D)
Steve
Daines (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [33] November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%35%52%13%
Harper Polling [34] January 20–22, 2014519± 4.3%29%43%28%
Rasmussen Reports [99] March 17–18, 2014750± 4%37%51%4%9%
Magellan Strategies [107] April 1–2, 20142,490± 1.96%36%49%9% [108] 6%
Harper Polling [106] April 7–8, 2014604± 4.3%35%42%23%
Hickman Analytics [109] April 24–30, 2014400± 4.9%37%49%14%
Vox Populi Polling [110] May 21–22, 2014806± 3.5%33%56%11%
Magellan Strategies [111] June 4–5, 2014761± 3.57%39%55%6%
Rasmussen Reports [99] June 9–10, 2014750± 4%35%53%3%9%
Public Policy Polling [112] July 17–18, 2014574± 4.1%39%46%15%
Gravis Marketing [113] July 20–22, 2014741± 4%41%45%6% [104] 7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [114] July 5–24, 2014838± 3.6%39%55%2%4%
Gravis Marketing [115] July 24, 2014781± 3.5%38%45%9% [104] 8%
Vox Populi Polling [116] August 3–4, 2014798± 3.5%34%47%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Walsh (D)
Champ
Edmunds (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [33] November 15–17, 2013952± 3.2%36%38%26%

Results

United States Senate election in Montana, 2014 [117]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Steve Daines 213,709 57.79% +30.71%
Democratic Amanda Curtis 148,18440.07%−32.85%
Libertarian Roger Roots7,9332.14%N/A
Total votes369,826 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Notes

  1. Replaced John Walsh.
  2. In February 2014, Walsh was appointed by Governor Steve Bullock to fill the vacancy caused by the resignation of Senator Max Baucus, who had appointed U.S. Ambassador to China.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Max Baucus</span> American politician (born 1941)

Maxwell Sieben Baucus is an American politician who served as a United States senator from Montana from 1978 to 2014. A member of the Democratic Party, he was a U.S. senator for over 35 years, making him the longest-serving U.S. senator in Montana history. President Barack Obama appointed Baucus to replace Gary Locke as the 11th U.S. Ambassador to the People's Republic of China, a position he held from 2014 until 2017.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Brian Schweitzer</span> 23rd Governor of Montana

Brian David Schweitzer is an American farmer and politician who served as the 23rd Governor of Montana from 2005 to 2013. Schweitzer served for a time as chair of the Western Governors Association as well as the Democratic Governors Association. He also served as President of the Council of State Governments.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">John Bohlinger</span> 33rd Lieutenant Governor of Montana

John Bohlinger, Jr. is an American businessman and politician who served as the 33rd Lieutenant Governor of Montana from 2005 to 2013. He ran for the office as a Republican on a bipartisan ticket headed by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Brian Schweitzer. Schweitzer and Bohlinger were elected to the governorship and lieutenant governorship in 2004; both were reelected in 2008. Due to term limits, they were unable to run in the 2012 election. Bohlinger switched to the Democratic Party in 2013.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 United States Senate election in Montana</span>

The 2008 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Senator Max Baucus won re-election to a sixth term in a landslide, winning more than 70% of the vote and carrying every county in the state, despite Republican John McCain's narrow victory in the state in the concurrent presidential election. Baucus later resigned his seat on February 6, 2014, after the Senate confirmed him to be U.S. Ambassador to China, having already announced his intention to retire at the end of term on April 23, 2013. As of 2024, this is the last time Democrats won the Class 2 Senate seat in Montana.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 Montana gubernatorial election</span>

The 2008 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2008 to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of the U.S. state of Montana. Incumbent governor Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat who was elected to his first four-year term in 2004, was elected to a second term with 65.5% of the vote. Incumbent lieutenant governor John Bohlinger, a Republican who was once again Schweitzer's running mate, was reelected to a second term. The Republican nominee was Roy Brown, a member of the Montana Senate. Brown's running mate was businessman Steve Daines, a future U.S. Representative and a future U.S. Senator.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2004 Montana gubernatorial election</span>

The 2004 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 2, 2004 for the post of Governor of Montana. Democrat Brian Schweitzer defeated Montana Secretary of State and Republican nominee Bob Brown with 50.4% of the vote against 46%. Schweitzer formed a ticket with a Republican running mate, choosing state legislator John Bohlinger for the lieutenant governorship.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Steve Daines</span> American politician and businessman (born 1962)

Steven David Daines is an American politician and former corporate executive serving as the junior United States senator from Montana since 2015. A member of the Republican Party, he represented Montana's at-large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2013 to 2015.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Steve Bullock (American politician)</span> American politician and lawyer (born 1966)

Stephen Clark Bullock is an American politician and lawyer who served as the 24th governor of Montana from 2013 to 2021. He is a member of the Democratic Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Corey Stapleton</span> American politician (born 1967)

Corey Stapleton is an American politician and musician who served as the Secretary of State of Montana from 2017 to 2021. A Republican, he served as a member of the Montana State Senate from 2001 to 2009.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States Senate election in Montana</span>

The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 Montana gubernatorial election</span>

The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana</span>

The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run for the seat in the U.S. Senate. A primary election was held on June 5, 2012. Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">John Walsh (Montana politician)</span> American politician (born 1960)

John Edward Walsh is an American real estate agent, former politician and former military officer who served as a United States Senator from Montana from 2014 to 2015. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously served as a colonel in the Army National Guard, the adjutant general of the Montana National Guard with a state commission as a brigadier general from 2008 to 2012 and the 34th Lieutenant Governor of Montana from 2013 to 2014 under Governor Steve Bullock.

Amanda Gayle Curtis is an American politician who serves as the president of the Montana Federation of Public Employees (MFPE), Montana's largest labor union.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Angela McLean</span> 35th Lieutenant Governor of Montana

Angela McLean is an American politician and educator who served as the 35th Lieutenant Governor of Montana from February 10, 2014, to January 3, 2016. Governor Steve Bullock, a Democrat, selected McLean in 2014 to replace newly appointed U.S. Senator John Walsh after appointing Walsh to the vacancy created by Senator Max Baucus's resignation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana</span>

The 2014 congressional election in Montana was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. Between 1993 and 2023, Montana had one at-large seat in the House.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Montana gubernatorial election</span>

The 2016 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Montana, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 United States Senate election in Montana</span>

The 2020 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Montana. It was held concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. The primaries for both the Democratic and Republican nominations took place on June 2, 2020. Incumbent senator Steve Daines won the Republican primary, while Montana Gov. Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Montana gubernatorial election</span>

The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next governor of Montana, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. It resulted in voters selecting Greg Gianforte over Mike Cooney. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term in office, and he ran unsuccessfully for Montana's Class II Senate seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 Montana's at-large congressional district special election</span>

In Montana, an at-large congressional district special election was held on May 25, 2017, to determine the member of the United States House of Representatives for Montana's at-large congressional district. The election was necessitated by incumbent Republican Representative Ryan Zinke's appointment as United States Secretary of the Interior. Zinke resigned on March 1, 2017, upon his confirmation.

References

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  3. "Amanda Curtis wins Montana Democratic nomination to U.S. Senate". The Missoulian. August 16, 2014. Retrieved August 16, 2014.
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  11. "Baucus to retire rather than seek re-election in 2014, strategists say". Washington Post. April 23, 2013.
  12. Lundquist, Laura (August 26, 2013). "Senate candidate wants more Congressional oversight". Bozeman Daily Chronicle . Retrieved August 27, 2013.
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  15. "U.S. House race hinges on Daines' decision". Ravalli Republic. October 5, 2013. Retrieved November 6, 2013.
  16. "After careful consideration, I decided to not..." FaceBook. March 17, 2014. Retrieved April 13, 2014.
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