2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election

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2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election
Flag of Minnesota (1983-2024).svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  
  Governor Mark Dayton interns02 (28945755112) (cropped 2).jpg Jeff Johnson (cropped).jpg
Nominee Mark Dayton Jeff Johnson
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Running mate Tina Smith Bill Kuisle
Popular vote989,113879,257
Percentage50.07%44.51%

2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
MN Governor 2014.svg
Dayton:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Johnson:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%     50%     No votes

Governor before election

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

Elected Governor

Mark Dayton
Democratic (DFL)

The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor governor Mark Dayton ran for re-election to a second term in office. [1] Incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired and Tina Smith was selected as his new running mate. [2]

Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and the Republicans nominated Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and his running mate former state representative Bill Kuisle. In the general election, Dayton and Smith defeated them and several other minor party candidates with just over 50% of the vote. Dayton's victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67. [3] It was also the first gubernatorial race since 1994 in which the winner received a majority of the votes cast.

The election was the first time since 1994 that a third party did not gain more than 6% of the total vote.

Background

Incumbent Republican governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead running for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination and former U.S. senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.

Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency. [4] Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton was not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report [5] and The Rothenberg Political Report [6] both rated the race as "safe Democratic" and Daily Kos Elections , [7] Governing [8] and Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] all rated the race as "likely Democratic".

Democratic–Farmer–Labor primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Bill Dahn
    • Running mate: James Vigliotti
  • Leslie Davis, activist [10]
    • Running mate: Gregor Soderberg [11]
  • Mark Dayton, incumbent governor [1]
    • Running mate: Tina Smith, Dayton's former chief of staff [12]

Results

Democratic primary election results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic (DFL) Mark Dayton/Tina Smith (incumbent) 177,849 92.99
Democratic (DFL) Leslie Davis/Gregor Soderberg8,5304.46
Democratic (DFL) Bill Dahn/James Vigliotti4,8802.55
Total votes191,259 100

Republican primary

Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%. [14]

At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote. [15] [16]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rob
Farnsworth
Scott
Honour
Jeff
Johnson
Julie
Rosen
Ole
Savior
Marty
Seifert
Dave A.
Thompson
Kurt
Zellers
Other/
Undecided
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 2014404± 5%9%23%14%23%33% [lower-alpha 1]
Suffolk Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 24–28, 201473± ?1%2%7%1%10%5%8%68%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013305± 5.7%6%8%10%9%11%12%44%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Norm
Coleman
Keith
Downey
David
Hann
Jeff
Johnson
Julie
Rosen
Marty
Seifert
Kurt
Zellers
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 2013275± 5.9%57%4%4%4%5%4%5%17%

Results

Results by county:
Johnson
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
Zellers
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
Seifert
20-30%
30-40%
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
80-90%
90-100%
Honour
20-30%
30-40% 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial Republican primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
Johnson
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Zellers
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Seifert
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Honour
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
Republican primary election results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Johnson/Bill Kuisle 55,836 30.33
Republican Kurt Zellers/Dean Simpson44,04623.92
Republican Marty Seifert/Pam Myhra 38,85121.10
Republican Scott Honour/Karin Housley 38,37720.84
Republican Merrill Anderson/Mark Anderson7,0003.80
Total votes184,110 100.00

Independence primary

Nicollet in 2014 Hannah Nicollet, April 2014 on The Tony Hernandez Show.png
Nicollet in 2014

The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato. [48]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Hannah Nicollet, software developer [49]
    • Running mate: Tim Gieseke, businessman and candidate for the state house in 2013 [50]

Declined

  • Tom Horner, public affairs consultant and nominee for governor in 2010 (endorsed Jeff Johnson) [51] [52]

Results

Independence primary election results [13]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Independence Hannah Nicollet/Tim Gieseke 5,822 100
Total votes5,822 100

Libertarian Party

The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove. [53]

Candidates

Nominee

  • Chris Holbrook [54]
    • Running mate: Chris Dock [55]

Grassroots–Legalize Cannabis Party

Candidates

Declared

  • Chris Wright, computer repair shop owner and nominee for governor in 1998 and 2010 [56]
    • Running mate: David Daniels, playwright and performance artist

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [57] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [58] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [59] Safe DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [60] Lean DNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Jeff
Johnson (R)
Hannah
Nicollet (IP)
OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 27–30, 2014596± 4.1%47%42%2%4% [lower-alpha 2] 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20142,430± 3%50%41%1%9%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune October 20–22, 2014800± 3.5%45%38%5%2%10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV October 14–16, 2014597± 4.1%50%40%3%3% [lower-alpha 3] 4%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV September 30 – October 2, 2014577± 4.2%51%39%4%2% [lower-alpha 4] 4%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20142,562± 2%49%42%0%1%8%
Rasmussen Reports September 29–30, 2014750± 4%50%40%10%
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune September 8–10, 2014800± 3.5%45%33%1%1%20%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 20143,607± 2%48%41%2%10%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV August 19–21, 2014600± 4.1%49%40%3%3%5%
Rasmussen Reports August 13–14, 2014750± 4%49%41%10%
Gravis Marketing July 2–3, 2014879± 3%52%37%11%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%36%16%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV June 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%46%40%5%2%6%
Suffolk University Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 24–28, 2014800± ?44%30%26%
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%52%34%14%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%37%15%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%34%14%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%53%29%18%
Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Merrill
Anderson (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%35%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Norm
Coleman (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%39%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Kurt
Daudt (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%39%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Keith
Downey (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%53%30%18%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Tom
Emmer (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%39%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Rob
Farnsworth (R)
OtherUndecided
Suffolk Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 24–28, 2014800± ?45%28%27%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%52%31%17%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
David
Hann (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%36%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Scott
Honour (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%35%19%
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%47%37%10% [lower-alpha 5] 6%
Suffolk Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 24–28, 2014800± ?45%28%27%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%53%33%14%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%38%15%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%52%34%15%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Tim
Pawlenty (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%50%42%7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Julie
Rosen (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%36%16%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%34%15%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%27%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Marty
Seifert (R)
OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20143,170± 2%53%37%6%4%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%36%17%
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%46%38%10% [lower-alpha 5] 6%
Suffolk Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 24–28, 2014800± ?43%32%25%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%51%34%15%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%37%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Dave A.
Thompson (R)
OtherUndecided
Suffolk Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 24–28, 2014800± ?43%31%26%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545 RV± 4.3%53%32%15%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%37%15%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%51%35%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Mark
Dayton (DFL)
Kurt
Zellers (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 2014633± 3.9%47%37%16%
SurveyUSA June 5–9, 20141,017± 3.1%46%39%9% [lower-alpha 6] 5%
Suffolk Archived September 24, 2015, at the Wayback Machine April 24–28, 2014800± ?43%31%26%
SurveyUSA February 25–27, 2014545± 4.3%52%31%16%
Public Policy Polling October 27–29, 2013895± 3.3%48%38%14%
Public Policy Polling May 17–19, 2013712± 3.7%53%35%13%
Public Policy Polling January 18–20, 20131,065± 3%52%29%19%

Results

2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election swing map by county.svg
2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election trend map by county.svg
2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election [61]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic (DFL)
989,113 50.07% +6.44%
Republican 879,25744.51%+1.30%
Independence
  • Hannah Nicollet
  • Tim Gieseke
56,9002.88%−9.06%
Grassroots—LC
31,2591.58%+1.23%
Libertarian
  • Chris Holbrook
  • Chris Dock
18,0820.92%N/A
Write-in 1,1340.06%−0.05%
Total votes1,975,406 100.0%
Turnout 1,992,56650.51%−5.32%
Registered electors 3,945,136
Democratic (DFL) hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Despite losing the state, Johnson won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats. [62]

DistrictDaytonJohnsonRepresentative
1st 45%48% Tim Walz
2nd 46%49% John Kline
3rd 46%50% Erik Paulsen
4th 59%36% Betty McCollum
5th 71%23% Keith Ellison
6th 39%55% Tom Emmer
7th 44%50% Collin Peterson
8th 51%43% Rick Nolan

See also

Notes

  1. Other 11%, Undecided 22%.
  2. Chris Holbrook (L) 2%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%.
  3. Chris Holbrook (L) 1%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%.
  4. Chris Holbrook (L) 0%, Chris Wright (G) 1%, Other 1%.
  5. 1 2 Hannah Nicollet (IP) 7%, Other 3%.
  6. Hannah Nicollet (IP) 6%, Other 3%.

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Official campaign websites (archived)