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Dayton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Johnson: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% 50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Minnesota |
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The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor governor Mark Dayton ran for re-election to a second term in office. [1] Incumbent Democratic lieutenant governor Yvonne Prettner Solon retired and Tina Smith was selected as his new running mate. [2]
Primary elections were held on August 12, 2014. Dayton and Smith won the Democratic primary and the Republicans nominated Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson and his running mate former state representative Bill Kuisle. In the general election, Dayton and Smith defeated them and several other minor party candidates with just over 50% of the vote. Dayton's victory broke his own record, set in 2010, as the oldest Minnesota gubernatorial candidate to win an election; he was 67. [3] It was also the first gubernatorial race since 1994 in which the winner received a majority of the votes cast.
The election was the first time since 1994 that a third party did not gain more than 6% of the total vote.
Incumbent Republican governor Tim Pawlenty declined to run for a third term in 2010, instead running for the Republican presidential nomination in the 2012 election. State Representative Tom Emmer easily won the Republican nomination and former U.S. senator Mark Dayton won the DFL nomination with a plurality over State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher. After a very close race, Dayton defeated Emmer by just 8,770 votes, 0.42% of all votes cast.
Dayton's victory was one of just four that Minnesota Democrats have achieved out of 28 gubernatorial elections during a Democratic presidency. [4] Despite this, and despite his narrow margin of victory in 2010, Dayton was not seen as a top Republican target. The Cook Political Report [5] and The Rothenberg Political Report [6] both rated the race as "safe Democratic" and Daily Kos Elections , [7] Governing [8] and Sabato's Crystal Ball [9] all rated the race as "likely Democratic".
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) | Mark Dayton/Tina Smith (incumbent) | 177,849 | 92.99 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Leslie Davis/Gregor Soderberg | 8,530 | 4.46 | |
Democratic (DFL) | Bill Dahn/James Vigliotti | 4,880 | 2.55 | |
Total votes | 191,259 | 100 |
Until 2014, Minnesota Republicans had not had a competitive gubernatorial primary since 1924, when Theodore Christianson beat Ole Jacobson by 2.8%, taking 22.8% of the vote in a six-candidate race that saw five candidates finish in double digits. In every election since then, the nominee had won the primary by at least 17.8% and on average by 62.2%. [14]
At the Republican State Convention on May 30–31, 2014, Jeff Johnson received the party's endorsement. Dave A. Thompson withdrew from the race and endorsed Johnson. Scott Honour, Marty Seifert and Kurt Zellers all ran in the August primary, but Johnson prevailed with 30% of the vote. [15] [16]
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rob Farnsworth | Scott Honour | Jeff Johnson | Julie Rosen | Ole Savior | Marty Seifert | Dave A. Thompson | Kurt Zellers | Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA [48] | June 5–9, 2014 | 404 | ± 5% | — | 9% | 23% | — | — | 14% | — | 23% | 33% [a] |
Suffolk [49] | April 24–28, 2014 | 73 | ± ? | 1% | 2% | 7% | — | 1% | 10% | 5% | 8% | 68% |
Public Policy Polling [50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 305 | ± 5.7% | — | 6% | 8% | 10% | — | 9% | 11% | 12% | 44% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Norm Coleman | Keith Downey | David Hann | Jeff Johnson | Julie Rosen | Marty Seifert | Kurt Zellers | Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 275 | ± 5.9% | 57% | 4% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 17% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn | |||||||||
Merrill Anderson | Scott Honour | Jeff Johnson | Marty Seifert | Kurt Zellers | |||||
1 | Jul. 30, 2014 | Minnesota Public Radio | Mike Mulcahy | YouTube | N | P | P | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Jeff Johnson/Bill Kuisle | 55,836 | 30.33 | |
Republican | Kurt Zellers/Dean Simpson | 44,046 | 23.92 | |
Republican | Marty Seifert/Pam Myhra | 38,851 | 21.10 | |
Republican | Scott Honour/Karin Housley | 38,377 | 20.84 | |
Republican | Merrill Anderson/Mark Anderson | 7,000 | 3.80 | |
Total votes | 184,110 | 100.00 |
The Independence Party of Minnesota state convention was held on May 17, 2014, at Minnesota State University, Mankato. [52]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Independence | Hannah Nicollet/Tim Gieseke | 5,822 | 100 | |
Total votes | 5,822 | 100 |
The Libertarian Party of Minnesota state convention was held on April 26, 2014, in Maple Grove. [57]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [61] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [62] | Likely D | November 3, 2014 |
Rothenberg Political Report [63] | Safe D | November 3, 2014 |
Real Clear Politics [64] | Lean D | November 3, 2014 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Jeff Johnson (R) | Hannah Nicollet (IP) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [65] | October 27–30, 2014 | 596 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 42% | 2% | 4% [b] | 4% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [66] | October 16–23, 2014 | 2,430 | ± 3% | 50% | 41% | — | 1% | 9% |
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune [67] | October 20–22, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 38% | 5% | 2% | 10% |
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [68] | October 14–16, 2014 | 597 | ± 4.1% | 50% | 40% | 3% | 3% [c] | 4% |
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [69] | September 30 – October 2, 2014 | 577 | ± 4.2% | 51% | 39% | 4% | 2% [d] | 4% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [70] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,562 | ± 2% | 49% | 42% | 0% | 1% | 8% |
Rasmussen Reports [71] | September 29–30, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 40% | — | — | 10% |
Mason-Dixon/Star Tribune [72] | September 8–10, 2014 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 33% | 1% | 1% | 20% |
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [73] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 3,607 | ± 2% | 48% | 41% | — | 2% | 10% |
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [74] | August 19–21, 2014 | 600 | ± 4.1% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 3% | 5% |
Rasmussen Reports [71] | August 13–14, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 49% | 41% | — | — | 10% |
Gravis Marketing [75] | July 2–3, 2014 | 879 | ± 3% | 52% | 37% | 11% | — | — |
Public Policy Polling [76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 36% | — | — | 16% |
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [77] | June 5–9, 2014 | 1,017 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 40% | 5% | 2% | 6% |
Suffolk University [78] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 44% | 30% | — | — | 26% |
SurveyUSA/KSTP-TV [79] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 34% | — | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling [50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 37% | — | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling [80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 34% | — | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling [51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 53% | 29% | — | — | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Merrill Anderson (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 35% | — | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Norm Coleman (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 52% | 39% | — | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Kurt Daudt (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 39% | — | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Keith Downey (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 53% | 30% | — | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Tom Emmer (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 39% | — | 9% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Rob Farnsworth (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk [81] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 45% | 28% | — | 27% |
SurveyUSA [82] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | — | 17% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | David Hann (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 36% | — | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Scott Honour (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 35% | — | 19% |
SurveyUSA [48] | June 5–9, 2014 | 1,017 | ± 3.1% | 47% | 37% | 10% [e] | 6% |
Suffolk [83] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 45% | 28% | — | 27% |
SurveyUSA [82] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 53% | 33% | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling [50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 38% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling [80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 34% | — | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Tim Pawlenty (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 50% | 42% | — | 7% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Julie Rosen (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 36% | — | 16% |
Public Policy Polling [80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 34% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling [51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 52% | 27% | — | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Marty Seifert (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [84] | July 5–24, 2014 | 3,170 | ± 2% | 53% | 37% | 6% | 4% |
Public Policy Polling [76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 36% | — | 17% |
SurveyUSA [48] | June 5–9, 2014 | 1,017 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 38% | 10% [e] | 6% |
Suffolk [85] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 43% | 32% | — | 25% |
SurveyUSA [82] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 51% | 34% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling [50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 37% | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Dave A. Thompson (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Suffolk [86] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 43% | 31% | — | 26% |
SurveyUSA [82] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 RV | ± 4.3% | 53% | 32% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling [50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 37% | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling [80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 51% | 35% | — | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Mark Dayton (DFL) | Kurt Zellers (R) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling [76] | June 12–15, 2014 | 633 | ± 3.9% | 47% | 37% | — | 16% |
SurveyUSA [48] | June 5–9, 2014 | 1,017 | ± 3.1% | 46% | 39% | 9% [f] | 5% |
Suffolk [87] | April 24–28, 2014 | 800 | ± ? | 43% | 31% | — | 26% |
SurveyUSA [82] | February 25–27, 2014 | 545 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | — | 16% |
Public Policy Polling [50] | October 27–29, 2013 | 895 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 38% | — | 14% |
Public Policy Polling [80] | May 17–19, 2013 | 712 | ± 3.7% | 53% | 35% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling [51] | January 18–20, 2013 | 1,065 | ± 3% | 52% | 29% | — | 19% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic (DFL) |
| 989,113 | 50.07% | +6.44% | |
Republican | 879,257 | 44.51% | +1.30% | ||
Independence |
| 56,900 | 2.88% | −9.06% | |
Grassroots—LC |
| 31,259 | 1.58% | +1.23% | |
Libertarian |
| 18,082 | 0.92% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,134 | 0.06% | −0.05% | ||
Total votes | 1,975,406 | 100.0% | |||
Turnout | 1,992,566 | 50.51% | −5.32% | ||
Registered electors | 3,945,136 | ||||
Democratic (DFL) hold |
Despite losing the state, Johnson won 5 of 8 congressional districts, including two that elected Democrats. [89]
District | Dayton | Johnson | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 45% | 48% | Tim Walz |
2nd | 46% | 49% | John Kline |
3rd | 46% | 50% | Erik Paulsen |
4th | 59% | 36% | Betty McCollum |
5th | 71% | 23% | Keith Ellison |
6th | 39% | 55% | Tom Emmer |
7th | 44% | 50% | Collin Peterson |
8th | 51% | 43% | Rick Nolan |
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Official campaign websites (archived)