2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas

Last updated

2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Flag of Arkansas.svg
←  2008 November 4, 2014 2020  →
  Tom Cotton, Official Portrait, 113th Congress small (cropped).jpeg Mark Pryor, Official Portrait, 112th Congress (2011) 1.jpg
Nominee Tom Cotton Mark Pryor
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote478,819334,174
Percentage56.50%39.43%
2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas results map by county.svg
County results
Cotton:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Pryor:     50–60%     60–70%
U.S. senator before election

Mark Pryor
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Tom Cotton
Republican

The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Contents

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 56.5%-39.4%. [1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed. [2] This marked the first time since Reconstruction in 1877 that Republicans held both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, and Pryor ended up receiving a similar fate.

Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.

Background

Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history. [3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were successfully re-elected. [4]

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years. [5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914. [6]

The election was originally thought to be extremely close- a claim backed up by polling, but Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points. [7]

Democratic primary

Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Republican primary

Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

  • Nathan LaFrance (Libertarian), energy executive [15]
  • Mark Swaney (Green), mechanical engineer and nominee for the state house in 2010 [15]

General election

Endorsements

Tom Cotton (R)
Mark Pryor (D)

Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D)$10,428,246$12,034,784$364,653
Tom Cotton (R)$7,557,443$6,411,763$1,885,435

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [22] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Likely R (flip)November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [24] Lean R (flip)November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [25] Lean R (flip)November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Mark
Pryor (D)		Tom
Cotton (R)		OtherUndecided
Basswood Research March 16–17, 2013600± 4%35%43%—22%
Basswood Research June 22–23, 2013600± 4%41%40%—19%
Clark Research July 23–27, 2013729± 4%43%35%—21%
On Message Inc. July 29–30, 2013600± 4%42%44%—14%
Harper Polling August 4–5, 2013587± 4.04%41%43%—16%
Global Strategy Group August 26–29, 2013501± ?%47%40%—13%
Harper Polling September 24–26, 2013622± 3.93%45%42%—13%
Talk Business/Hendrix College October 8, 2013603± 4%42%41%—17%
Public Policy Polling October 14–15, 2013955± 3.2%44%41%—15%
University of Arkansas October 10–17, 2013800± 3.5%34%32%—34%
Impact Management Group October 24, 2013911± 3.2%41%42%—18%
Polling Company/WomanTrend December 6–7, 2013400± 4.9%41%48%—9%
Public Policy Polling December 13–15, 20131,004± 3.1%44%44%—12%
Rasmussen Reports February 4–5, 2014500± 4.5%40%45%5%10%
Harper Polling January 26–27, 2014533± 4.24%36%42%—22%
Impact Management Group February 10, 20141,202± 2.83%42%46%—13%
Hickman Analytics February 17–20, 2014400± 4.9%39%41%8%12%
42%51%—8%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research March 27 – April 2, 2014600± 4%48%45%—7%
Talk Business/Hendrix College April 3–4, 20141,068± 3%46%43%4% [26] 8%
Opinion Research Associates April 1–8, 2014400± 5%48%38%—8%
Harper Polling April 9–10, 2014522± 4.29%39%39%—22%
New York Times/Kaiser Family April 8–15, 2014857± 4%46%36%4%15%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014857± 3.35%43%46%4%7%
Public Policy Polling April 25–27, 2014840± 3.4%43%42%—16%
NBC News/Marist April 30 – May 4, 2014876± 3.3%51%40%1%3%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014750± 4%43%47%4%6%
Public Opinion Strategies May 27–29, 2014500± 4.39%41%46%—13%
Fabrizio Lee June 3–5, 2014600± 4%43%51%—5%
Magellan Strategies June 4–5, 2014755± 3.57%45%49%2%4%
Impact Management Group June 29, 20141290± 2.72%43%47%—10%
Gravis Marketing July 7–8, 2014987± 3%44%51%5% [27] —
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20141,628± 2.9%45%49%1%5%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research July 20–24, 2014600± 4%48%46%—6%
Talk Business/Hendrix College July 22–25, 20141,780± 2.3%42%44%7% [28] 7%
Public Policy Polling August 1–3, 20141,066± 3%39%41%7% [28] 14%
41%43%—16%
Opinion Research Associates August 6–14, 2014414± 4.9%46%41%4% [26] 9%
Rasmussen Reports August 25–26, 2014750± 4%44%43%6%6%
ccAdvertising August 31 – September 1, 20141,735± ?29%37%—34%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 20141,572± 3%39%43%2%16%
CNN/ORC International August 28 – September 2, 2014523 LV± 4.5%47%49%—4%
839 RV± 3.5%47%38%—14%
Hickman Analytics August 26 – September 3, 2014700± 3.7%45%43%—12%
NBC News/Marist September 2–4, 2014639 LV± 3.9%40%45%6% [29] 9%
1,068 RV± 3%41%41%8% [30] 11%
Answers Unlimited September 7–9, 2014600± 3.5%46%42%4% [26] 8%
Gravis Marketing September 8–11, 2014902± 4%43%47%2% [27] 8%
Hickman Analytics September 13–18, 2014801± 3.5%46%43%—11%
Public Policy Polling September 18–21, 20141,453± 2.6%38%43%6% [31] 13%
39%45%—15%
Suffolk September 20–23, 2014500± 4.4%45%43%5% [31] 7%
Rasmussen Reports September 24–25, 2014750± 4%40%47%5%8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 20141,991± 2%41%45%1%13%
Opinion Research Associates October 1–5, 2014400± 5%45%42%5%9%
Fox News October 4–7, 2014707± 3.5%39%46%5% [32] 11%
Rasmussen Reports October 13–15, 2014940± 3%44%47%4%5%
Talk Business/Hendrix October 15–16, 20142,075± 2.2%40.5%49%5% [33] 6%
NBC News/Marist October 19–23, 2014621± 3.9%43%45%6% [29] 7%
971± 3.1%43%42%6% [29] 9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20141,567± 4%42%47%1%10%
Opinion Research Associates October 25–26, 2014401± 5%45%44%2% [34] 10%
Issues & Answers Network October 21–27, 2014568± 4.1%36%49%—15%
Rasmussen Reports October 27–29, 2014967± 3%44%51%4%2%
Public Policy Polling October 30 – November 1, 20141,092± 3%41%49%4% [35] 5%
45%51%—4%
Opinion Research Associates October 30 – November 1, 2014400± 5%45%43%4% [35] 8%

Results

United States Senate election in Arkansas, 2014 [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Tom Cotton 478,819 56.50% N/A
Democratic Mark Pryor (incumbent)334,17439.43%-40.10%
Libertarian Nathan LaFrance17,2102.03%N/A
Green Mark Swaney16,7971.98%-18.49%
Write-in 5050.06%N/A
Total votes847,505 100.00% N/A
Republican gain from Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mark Pryor</span> American attorney & politician (born 1963)

Mark Lunsford Pryor is an American attorney, politician and lobbyist who served as a United States Senator from Arkansas from 2003 to 2015. He previously served as Attorney General of Arkansas from 1999 to 2003 and in the Arkansas House of Representatives from 1991 to 1995. He is a member of the Democratic Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Democratic Party of Arkansas</span> Political organization in Arkansas, U.S.

The Democratic Party of Arkansas is the affiliate of the Democratic Party in the state of Arkansas. The current party chair is Grant Tennille.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2008 United States Senate election in Arkansas</span>

The 2008 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Senator Mark Pryor ran for a second term. No Republican filed to challenge him, and his only opponent was Green Party candidate Rebekah Kennedy. Pryor won re-election with almost 80% of the vote, despite Republican John McCain winning the state by nearly 20 points in the concurrent presidential election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2002 United States Senate election in Arkansas</span>

The 2002 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 5, 2002. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Tim Hutchinson ran for a second term, but was defeated by Democratic candidate Mark Pryor, whose father David had held the seat from 1979 to 1997. This was the only Senate seat in the 2002 midterm elections to switch from Republican to Democratic, and Hutchinson was the only incumbent Republican senator to lose reelection during that cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas</span>

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010 alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2010 United States Senate election in Oklahoma</span>

The 2010 United States Senate election in Oklahoma was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Republican Senator Tom Coburn won re-election to a second term.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1996 United States Senate election in Arkansas</span>

The 1996 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 5, 1996. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator David Pryor decided to retire. Republican Tim Hutchinson won the open seat, becoming the first Republican to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arkansas since Reconstruction in 1872 and the first to ever be popularly elected in the state. He was the first to win this seat since 1870.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas</span>

The 2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Arkansas gubernatorial election</span>

The 2014 Arkansas gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Arkansas, concurrently with the election to Arkansas's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. This was the last time the Arkansas Governor’s changed partisan control.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota</span>

The 2014 United States Senate election in South Dakota took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of South Dakota, concurrently with the election of the Governor of South Dakota, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Wisconsin gubernatorial election</span> Re-election of Scott Walker as Governor of Wisconsin

The 2014 Wisconsin gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to determine the governor and lieutenant governor of the U.S. state of Wisconsin. It occurred concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election</span> Election for the governorship of the U.S. state of Minnesota

The 2014 Minnesota gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Minnesota concurrently with the election to Minnesota's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina</span>

The 2014 United States Senate election in North Carolina took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of North Carolina, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary took place on May 6, 2014.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Colorado gubernatorial election</span>

The 2014 Colorado gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Colorado, concurrently with the election to Colorado's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Alaska gubernatorial election</span> Election for the governorship of the U.S. state of Alaska

The 2014 Alaska gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Alaska, concurrently with the election of Alaska's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas</span> Elections

The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arkansas was held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014 to elect the four U.S. representatives from the state of Arkansas, one from each of the state's four congressional districts. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including the governor of Arkansas and a United States senator.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Arkansas elections</span> General election held in Arkansas, USA

A general election was held in the U.S. state of Arkansas on November 4, 2014. All of Arkansas' executive officers were up for election as well as a United States Senate seat, and all of Arkansas' four seats in the United States House of Representatives. Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014, for offices that need to nominate candidates. Primary runoffs, necessary if no candidate wins a majority of the vote, were held on June 10, 2014.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma</span>

The 2018 United States House of Representatives elections in Oklahoma were held on November 6, 2018, to elect the five U.S. representatives from the state of Oklahoma, one from each of the state's five congressional districts. The elections coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. Primary elections were held on June 26 and runoff elections were held two months later on August 28. The state’s U.S. House delegation Republican majority changed from 5-0 to 4-1. As of 2023 this is the only time since 2010 that Democrats won any house race in Oklahoma.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas</span>

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas. Incumbent senator John Boozman was first elected in 2010, defeating Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln. Boozman was re-elected for a second term in the 2016 with 59.8% of the vote and ran in 2022 for a third term. Boozman won the May 24, 2022 Republican primary with 58.03% of the vote and subsequently defeated Democrat Natalie James in the general election by 34.64 percentage points. This was the best performance for a Republican senator in the state's history, and the third consecutive Republican win of this seat.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1972 United States Senate election in Arkansas</span>

The 1972 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 7, 1972. Incumbent U.S. Senator John L. McClellan was re-elected to a sixth term in office, defeating U.S. Representative David Pryor in a hotly contested primary. In the general election, McClellan easily defeated Republican physician Wayne Babbitt. This was McClellan's final campaign; he died in his sleep in 1977. Pryor was elected Governor of Arkansas in 1974 and won the race to succeed McClellan in 1978.

References

  1. ↑ "November 4, 2014 Arkansas General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election OFFICIAL RESULTS". November 4, 2014. Retrieved September 8, 2022.
  2. ↑ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas". POLITICO.
  3. ↑ "Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views". Green Party Watch. November 7, 2008. Retrieved September 4, 2010.
  4. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (August 5, 2013). "Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014". Smart Politics.
  5. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (March 20, 2013). "Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats?". Smart Politics.
  6. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (November 17, 2014). "Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016?". Smart Politics.
  7. ↑ Glueck, Katie. "Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas". POLITICO. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  8. ↑ "Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014". Arkansas Times. April 19, 2012.
  9. ↑ "D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas". Natural State Report. July 31, 2013. Archived from the original on August 1, 2013.
  10. ↑ Glueck, Katie (July 31, 2013). "Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate". Politico.
  11. ↑ Daniels, Alex; Frago, Charlie (November 12, 2012). "Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14". Arkansas Online.
  12. ↑ DeMillo, Andrew (August 13, 2013). "Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat". Arkansas Business. Associated Press.
  13. ↑ "Griffin Wins Seat on Ways and Means Committee, Will Not Seek Higher Office in 2014". talkbusiness.net. Archived from the original on December 3, 2012.
  14. 1 2 3 Saylor, Ryan (August 7, 2013). "Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape". Talk Business Arkansas. Retrieved August 13, 2013.
  15. 1 2 "Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas". sfgate.com. March 3, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
  16. ↑ Trygstad, Kyle. "Club for Growth Backs Mark Pryor Challenger". Roll Call. Retrieved August 7, 2013.
  17. ↑ Leary, Alex. "Rubio endorses Tom Cotton in Arkansas Senate race". Tampa Bay Times. Archived from the original on September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 20, 2013.
  18. ↑ Kubin, Jacquie. "Allen West Guardian Fund 2014: Endorsing tomorrow's leaders". The Washington Times. Retrieved September 19, 2013.
  19. ↑ "Rick Santorum and Patriot Voices PAC Announce Endorsements in Four Key U.S. Senate Races". Patriot Voices. April 22, 2014. Retrieved April 25, 2014.
  20. ↑ "Political Note: Romney Endorses Cotton". Time Record Online Edition. June 13, 2014. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  21. ↑ Brantley, Max (April 25, 2014). "UPDATE: Arkansas Education Association to endorse Mark Pryor. And, boy, did he go after Cotton today on Medicare, Social Security". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 31, 2014.
  22. ↑ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  23. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  24. ↑ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  25. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  26. 1 2 3 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  27. 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L)
  28. 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
  29. 1 2 3 Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  30. ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
  31. 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  32. ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
  33. ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  34. ↑ Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
  35. 1 2 Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  36. ↑ "November 4, 2014 General election and nonpartisan runoff election Official results". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 23, 2014.
Campaign websites (Archived)
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.