2014 Iowa gubernatorial election

Last updated

2014 Iowa gubernatorial election
Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  
  Terry Branstad by Gage Skidmore.jpg Jack Hatch - Official Portrait - 84th GA (cropped).jpg
Nominee Terry Branstad Jack Hatch
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kim Reynolds Monica Vernon
Popular vote666,032420,787
Percentage58.99%37.27%

Iowa Governor Election Results by County, 2014.svg
2016 United States Senate election in Iowa by congressional district.svg
IA Governor 2014.svg
Branstad:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Hatch:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Tie:     40–50%

Governor before election

Terry Branstad
Republican

Elected Governor

Terry Branstad
Republican

The 2014 Iowa gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014. Republican incumbent Terry Branstad ran for reelection to a sixth overall and second consecutive four-year term. [1] Branstad went on to win a historic sixth term as governor by defeating Democratic challenger and State Senator Jack Hatch, and on December 14, 2015, he became the longest-serving governor in American history. He won 59.1% of the popular vote to Hatch's 37.3%, and carried every county in the state except Johnson, home to Iowa City and the University of Iowa.

Contents

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad
Tom
Hoefling
Undecided
Public Policy Polling [3] May 15–19, 2014303± 3.3%66%12%22%
Loras College [4] April 7–8, 2014600± 4.0%80%4%14%
Suffolk University [5] April 3–8, 2014224± 6.6%70%9%21%
Public Policy Polling [6] February 20–23, 2014283± 5.8%70%11%18%

Results

Republican primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Terry Branstad (incumbent) 129,712 83.00
Republican Tom Hoefling 26,28416.82
Republican Write-In2790.18
Total votes156,275 100

Democratic primary

Narcisse was disqualified from appearing on the ballot in the Democratic primary following a ruling by the Iowa Supreme Court [8] that upheld a lower court decision that held that Narcisse had not submitted enough valid signatures to be placed on the ballot for the primary election. Narcisse continued his campaign and declared his intention to run for the nomination as a write-in candidate. [9] When he was unsuccessful, he announced that he would be running in the general election as the nominee of the Iowa Party. [10] [11]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Jack Hatch
Tyler Olson

Individuals

Organizations

Results

Democratic primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jack Hatch 60,404 99.26
Democratic Write-in4480.74
Total votes60,852 100

General election

Candidates

  • Running mate: Mary Krieg
  • Running mate: Ryan Ketelsen, businessman [38]
  • Running mate: Michael Richards, semi-retired businessman [39]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [40] Likely RNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [41] Safe RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [42] Safe RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [43] Safe RNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [44] November 1–3, 20141,265± 2.8%51%40%5% [45] 5%
54%43%4%
Quinnipiac University [46] October 28–November 2, 2014778± 3.5%52%41%2%6%
Iowa Poll [47] October 28–31, 2014701± 3.7%59%35%2%4%
YouGov [48] October 25–31, 20141,112± 4.4%49%35%4%13%
Fox News [49] October 28–30, 2014911± 3%53%36%5%6%
Reuters/Ipsos [50] October 23–29, 20141,129± 3.3%57%34%4%5%
Quinnipiac [51] October 22–27, 2014817± 3.4%56%37%2%5%
Loras College [52] October 21–24, 20141,121± 2.93%55%34%2%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [53] October 16–23, 20142,322± 3%50%37%0%13%
NBC News/Marist [54] October 18–22, 2014772 LV± 3.5%59%36%2%4%
1,052 RV± 3%58%34%2%6%
Gravis Marketing [55] October 20–21, 2014964± 3%53%43%4%
Monmouth University [56] October 18–21, 2014423± 4.8%58%37%3%2%
Quinnipiac University [57] October 15–21, 2014964± 3.2%55%37%2%5%
Suffolk University [58] October 11–14, 2014500± 4.4%54%37%3% [59] 7%
Quinnipiac University [60] October 8–13, 2014967± 3.2%54%39%1%6%
The Iowa Poll [61] October 3–8, 20141,000± 3.1%54%39%4%
Magellan [62] October 3, 20141,299± 2.8%55%39%7%
NBC News/Marist [63] September 27–October 1, 2014778 LV± 3.5%58%36%1%5%
1,093 RV± 3%58%35%1%6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [64] September 20–October 1, 20142,359± 2%52%39%0%9%
Gravis Marketing [65] September 29–30, 2014522± 4%51%43%6%
Public Policy Polling [66] September 25–28, 20141,192± 2.8%50%36%4% [67] 9%
52%38%10%
Iowa Poll [68] September 21–24, 2014546± 4.2%48%34%6% [69] 12%
Rasmussen Reports [70] September 17–18, 2014750± 4%46%40%3%10%
FOX News [71] September 14–16, 2014600± 4%50%37%4%8%
Quinnipiac [72] September 10–15, 20141,167± 2.9%60%37%1%3%
Loras College [73] September 2–5, 20141,200± 2.82%56%34%11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [74] August 18–September 2, 20141,764± 3%51%38%1%10%
Suffolk [75] August 23–26, 2014500± 4%47%35%2% [76] 16%
Public Policy Polling [77] August 22–24, 2014915± 3.2%48%35%5% [45] 12%
50%37%13%
Rasmussen Reports [70] August 11–12, 2014750± 4%52%35%6%7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov [78] July 5–24, 20142,044± 2.7%51%40%1%8%
Gravis Marketing [79] July 17–18, 20141,179± 3%50%42%9%
NBC News/Marist [80] July 7–13, 20141,599± 2.5%53%38%1%9%
Quinnipiac [81] June 12–16, 20141,277± 2.7%47%38%1%14%
Vox Populi Polling [82] June 4–5, 2014665± 3.8%51%40%9%
Loras College [83] June 4–5, 2014600± 4%52%38%11%
Rasmussen Reports [70] June 4–5, 2014750± 4%49%40%2%8%
Global Strategy Group [84] May 13–15, 2014602± 4%47%40%13%
Public Policy Polling [3] May 15–19, 2014914± 3.3%48%40%12%
Victory Enterprises [85] April 30–May 1, 2014400± 4.9%48%33%20%
Hickman Analytics [86] April 24–30500± 4.4%50%40%10%
Vox Populi Polling [87] April 22–24, 2014600± 4%45%43%12%
Public Policy Polling [88] April 19–20, 2014677± 3.8%43%38%19%
Suffolk University [89] April 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%42%32%2% [90] 24%
Quinnipiac [91] March 5–10, 20141,411± 2.6%46%35%1%17%
Selzer & Co. [92] February 23–26, 2014703± 3.7%44%29%27%
Public Policy Polling [6] February 20–23, 2014869± 3.3%48%36%15%
Quinnipiac [93] December 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%49%33%1%17%
Selzer & Co. [94] December 8–11, 2013325± ?%52%29%8%11%
Public Policy Polling [95] July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%47%35%18%
Selzer & Co. [96] June 2–5, 2013591± 4%55%27%9%9%
Public Policy Polling [97] February 1–3, 2013846± %48%33%19%
Hypothetical polling

} With Branstad

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Bruce
Braley (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [97] February 1–3, 2013846± %47%41%11%
Public Policy Polling [98] May 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%44%40%16%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Chet
Culver (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [95] July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%47%42%11%
Public Policy Polling [97] February 1–3, 2013846± %50%40%10%
Public Policy Polling [98] May 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%44%42%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Michael
Gronstal (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [95] July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%50%36%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Bob
Krause (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [93] December 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%49%31%1%19%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Dave
Loebsack (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [97] February 1–3, 2013846± %48%38%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Tyler
Olson (D)
OtherUndecided
Quinnipiac [93] December 10–15, 20131,617± 2.4%50%32%1%17%
Selzer & Co. [94] December 8–11, 2013325± ?%51%28%8%13%
Public Policy Polling [95] July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%47%33%20%
Public Policy Polling [97] February 1–3, 2013846± %47%31%22%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Terry
Branstad (R)
Tom
Vilsack (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [97] February 1–3, 2013846± %47%46%8%
Public Policy Polling [98] May 3–6, 20121,181± 2.85%43%46%11%

With Hoefling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Tom
Hoefling (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [3] May 15–19, 2014914± 3.3%30%37%33%
Suffolk University [99] April 3–8, 2014800± 3.5%23%35%3% [90] 39%
Public Policy Polling [6] February 20–23, 2014869± 3.3%30%34%36%

With Reynolds

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Chet
Culver (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [95] July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%38%42%20%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Michael
Gronstal (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [95] July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%37%37%26%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Jack
Hatch (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [95] July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%36%33%30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Kim
Reynolds (R)
Tyler
Olson (D)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling [95] July 5–7, 2013668± 3.8%36%32%32%

Results

2014 Iowa gubernatorial election [100]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Terry Branstad (incumbent) / Kim Reynolds (incumbent) 666,032 58.99% +6.18%
Democratic Jack Hatch / Monica Vernon420,78737.27%−5.94%
Libertarian Lee Deakins Hieb / Tim Watson20,3211.80%+0.52%
Independent Jim Hennager / Mary Margaret Krieg10,5820.94%N/A
IowaJonathan R. Narcisse / Michael L. Richards10,2400.91%−0.95%
n/a Write-ins1,0950.09%n/a
Total votes1,129,057 100.00% n/a
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Branstad won all four congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. [101]

DistrictBranstadHatchRepresentative
1st 55.95%40.98% Rod Blum
2nd 56.66%39.85% Dave Loebsack
3rd 56.55%38.79% David Young
4th 67.25%29.39% Steve King

References

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  45. 1 2 Jim Hennager (NIP) 2%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 2%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
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  47. Iowa Poll
  48. YouGov
  49. Fox News
  50. Reuters/Ipsos
  51. Quinnipiac
  52. Loras College
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  54. NBC News/Marist
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  56. Monmouth University
  57. Quinnipiac University
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  59. Jim Hennager (NIP) 1%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 1%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  60. Quinnipiac University
  61. The Iowa Poll
  62. Magellan
  63. NBC News/Marist
  64. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  65. Gravis Marketing
  66. Public Policy Polling
  67. Jim Hennager (NIP) 3%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 2%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  68. Iowa Poll
  69. Jim Hennager (NIP) 2%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 3%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 1%
  70. 1 2 3 Rasmussen Reports
  71. FOX News
  72. Quinnipiac
  73. Loras College
  74. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  75. Suffolk Archived September 3, 2014, at the Wayback Machine
  76. Jim Hennager (NIP) 1%, Lee Deakins Hieb (L) 1%, Jonathan Narcisse (IP) 0%
  77. Public Policy Polling
  78. CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  79. Gravis Marketing
  80. NBC News/Marist
  81. Quinnipiac
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  86. Hickman Analytics
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  88. Public Policy Polling
  89. Suffolk University Archived November 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine
  90. 1 2 Lee Hieb (L)
  91. Quinnipiac
  92. Selzer & Co.
  93. 1 2 3 Quinnipiac
  94. 1 2 Selzer & Co.
  95. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Public Policy Polling
  96. Selzer & Co.
  97. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Public Policy Polling
  98. 1 2 3 Public Policy Polling
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  100. "2014 General election. Canvass summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State.
  101. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".

Official campaign websites (Archived)