2004 United States presidential election in Iowa

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2004 United States presidential election in Iowa
Flag of Iowa (xrmap collection).svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote70
Popular vote751,957741,898
Percentage49.90%49.23%

Iowa Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Iowa took place on November 2, 2004, as part of the 2004 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Voters chose seven electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and his running mate, Vice President Dick Cheney, against Democratic challenger and Senator from Massachusetts John F. Kerry and his running mate, Senator from North Carolina John Edwards. Six third parties were also on the ballot.

Contents

Iowa was won by President George W. Bush by a 0.67% margin of victory, or 10,059 votes, despite losing the state to Al Gore four years earlier. Prior to the election, most news organizations considered this a swing state. The Democrats had won Iowa in the previous four presidential elections, though only narrowly in 2000. Gore had won the state by only 0.32 percentage points, or 4,144 votes, a much weaker margin compared to the prior three elections. In 1988, Democrat Michael Dukakis won the state by 10.21% even in an otherwise Republican landslide year, and Bill Clinton carried the state by 6.02% in 1992 and 10.34% in 1996. Iowa was one of just two states, along with New Mexico, to vote for Gore in 2000 but flip to Bush in 2004, although it was won both times by narrow margins. Iowa was one of two states to be won by George W. Bush in at least one of his presidential runs that his father George H. W. Bush never carried, the other being West Virginia.

Bush became the first Republican to win Iowa since Ronald Reagan had done so in 1984. As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last time a Republican won Iowa by only a plurality. Until 2020, this was the last time Iowa did not vote for the same candidate as neighboring Wisconsin. This election marked a new streak of Iowa voting for the winning ticket in every election along with Florida and Ohio until 2020, when all three voted for the losing candidate. With Iowa, Florida, and Ohio's winning streaks no longer being intact, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are now all tied for the longest streaks of siding with the winner, all three of which most recently failing to do so when they backed Kerry during his losing presidential bid in 2004.

Bush is also the only US president to win the White House without Iowa and then carry it upon winning re-election. This is the opposite of Woodrow Wilson and FDR, as they are the only two presidents to have carried Iowa upon winning office but lose it upon re-election.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [1]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLean D
Associated PressToss-up
CNNLikely R (flip)
Cook Political ReportToss-up
NewsweekLean R (flip)
New York TimesLean R (flip)
Rasmussen ReportsToss-up
Research 2000Lean D
Washington PostToss-up
Washington TimesToss-up
Zogby InternationalLikely D
Washington DispatchLikely D

Polling

Polls showed the state was a pure tossup with neither candidate reaching a consistent lead. The last three polls averaged both candidates at 48%, with the last-second deciders the key to victory. [2] The final RealClearPolitics average gave Bush leading with a margin of 0.3%, with 47.4% to Kerry at 47.1% and Nader at 1.0%. [3]

Fundraising

Bush raised $671,335. [4] Kerry raised $449,980. [5]

Advertising and visits

The Kerry campaign visited the state 11 times to Bush's 10 times. [6] Both campaigns spent between $400,000 to $600,000 each week in television advertising. [7]

Analysis

Kerry's strength in the state lay in the highly populated counties of Polk (Des Moines), Linn (Cedar Rapids), Scott (Davenport), Johnson (Iowa City), and Black Hawk (Waterloo). Johnson County, home to the University of Iowa, gave Kerry 64.01% of its vote, Kerry's best performance in the state. However, Kerry also did well in a series of rural and small-town counties in northeastern Iowa and along the Mississippi River, many of which had been traditionally Democratic since at least the 1980s. [8] He won eight of the ten counties along the Mississippi River, including Dubuque County, which had given Gore his margin in the state in 2000. The 1st and 2nd congressional districts were both carried by Kerry, despite being represented by Republicans in Congress. [9] Dubuque is located within the 1st district while the 2nd district contains Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, and Muscatine. [10]

However, Bush performed respectably even in areas of Democratic strength; in only two counties did he obtain less than 40% of the vote. Additionally, he was able to offset Kerry's strength in the population centers and in the northeast and Mississippi River counties with landslide margins in a series of rural counties in the west of the state, as well as by dominating the state's south. Bush's best performance in the state was in Sioux County, where he won with 85.87% of the vote. His raw vote margin in Sioux County of 11,970 votes alone was greater than his raw vote margin over Kerry statewide. [11] Bush won three congressional districts in the state: the 3rd district, home to the Democratic city of Des Moines and its Republican suburbs, gave Bush a razor thin 50–50 margin, despite re-electing Democrat Leonard Boswell to Congress. The 4th district also gave Bush a narrow margin, giving him 51% of the vote. The now obsolete 5th district in the western part of the state was home to Iowa's most Republican areas, having elected Steve King to Congress in 2002; it gave Bush a landslide 21-point margin.

In terms of counties carried, both candidates flipped counties. Bush flipped four that voted for Gore in 2000, while Kerry flipped five that voted for Bush in 2000. [12] This election coincided with the 2004 United States Senate election in Iowa, where Republican Chuck Grassley was effortlessly re-elected with 70.83% of the vote. [13]

Iowa would return to the Democratic column in the next two elections, voting for Barack Obama by 9.54% in 2008 and 5.81% in 2012. However, in 2016, it returned to the Republican column when Donald Trump would win the state by 9.41%, the largest margin of victory for a Republican presidential nominee in the state since Ronald Reagan's in 1980.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Iowa
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Richard Cheney (incumbent)751,95749.90%7
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 741,89849.23%0
Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 5,9730.40%0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,9920.20%0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 1,3040.09%0
Green David Cobb Pat LaMarche 1,1410.08%0
N/A Write-ins 1,0940.07%0
Socialist Workers Róger Calero Margaret Trowe 3730.02%0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken Jim Lawrence1760.01%0
Totals1,506,908100%7
Voter Turnout (Voting age/Registered)67%/76%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adair 2,40256.15%1,84443.10%320.75%55813.05%4,278
Adams 1,31756.65%97742.02%311.33%34014.63%2,325
Allamakee 3,53049.99%3,44948.84%831.18%811.15%7,062
Appanoose 3,34051.78%3,06347.49%470.73%2774.29%6,450
Audubon 1,95854.51%1,60844.77%260.73%3509.74%3,592
Benton 6,65849.31%6,74749.97%960.72%-89-0.66%13,501
Black Hawk 28,04643.89%35,39255.38%4690.73%-7,346-11.49%63,907
Boone 6,87049.04%7,02750.16%1120.80%-157-1.12%14,009
Bremer 6,66552.16%6,02547.15%890.70%6405.01%12,779
Buchanan 4,79745.79%5,60853.54%700.67%-811-7.75%10,475
Buena Vista 4,88757.56%3,52041.46%830.98%1,36716.10%8,490
Butler 4,41759.09%3,00140.15%570.76%1,41618.94%7,475
Calhoun 3,25558.73%2,24340.47%440.80%1,01218.26%5,542
Carroll 5,76254.75%4,68944.56%730.69%1,07310.19%10,524
Cass 4,79663.58%2,67935.52%680.90%2,11728.06%7,543
Cedar 4,86950.23%4,74748.97%780.80%1221.26%9,694
Cerro Gordo 10,96044.71%13,37254.54%1840.75%-2,412-9.83%24,516
Cherokee 3,75855.30%2,98843.97%500.73%77011.33%6,796
Chickasaw 3,04044.67%3,70854.48%580.86%-668-9.81%6,806
Clarke 2,20048.18%2,32350.88%430.94%-123-2.70%4,566
Clay 4,89857.03%3,54741.30%1431.67%1,35115.73%8,588
Clayton 4,31247.03%4,73651.66%1201.31%-424-4.63%9,168
Clinton 10,66643.21%13,81355.96%2050.83%-3,147-12.75%24,684
Crawford 3,95554.61%3,22044.46%670.92%73510.15%7,242
Dallas 15,18357.75%10,91741.52%1930.74%4,26616.23%26,293
Davis 2,14854.82%1,73144.18%391.00%41710.64%3,918
Decatur 2,08852.06%1,85946.35%641.59%2295.71%4,011
Delaware 4,90853.35%4,22745.95%650.71%6817.40%9,200
Des Moines 8,22139.38%12,45659.67%1970.94%-4,235-20.29%20,874
Dickinson 5,33755.87%4,14043.34%760.80%1,19712.53%9,553
Dubuque 20,10042.73%26,56156.46%3820.81%-6,461-13.73%47,043
Emmet 2,69752.31%2,40546.64%541.04%2925.67%5,156
Fayette 5,12849.35%5,18549.89%790.76%-57-0.54%10,392
Floyd 3,74545.86%4,34953.25%730.89%-604-7.39%8,167
Franklin 3,12856.66%2,34042.38%530.96%78814.28%5,521
Fremont 2,36260.39%1,51038.61%391.00%85221.78%3,911
Greene 2,61851.20%2,45948.09%360.70%1593.11%5,113
Grundy 4,42964.67%2,38634.84%340.50%2,04329.83%6,849
Guthrie 3,32555.47%2,61443.61%550.92%71111.86%5,994
Hamilton 4,36752.39%3,89546.73%730.88%4725.66%8,335
Hancock 3,36857.04%2,48442.07%530.89%88414.97%5,905
Hardin 4,87554.48%4,01544.87%590.66%8609.61%8,949
Harrison 4,68060.94%2,90637.84%941.23%1,77423.10%7,680
Henry 5,22055.20%4,12743.64%1101.16%1,09311.56%9,457
Howard 2,02843.18%2,61455.65%551.17%-586-12.47%4,697
Humboldt 3,16259.10%2,14640.11%420.79%1,01618.99%5,350
Ida 2,34262.06%1,41537.49%170.45%92724.57%3,774
Iowa 4,54453.75%3,84145.43%690.82%7038.32%8,454
Jackson 4,24242.37%5,65656.50%1131.13%-1,414-14.13%10,011
Jasper 9,46247.16%10,43051.99%1700.84%-968-4.83%20,062
Jefferson 3,64844.05%4,49054.22%1431.73%-842-10.17%8,281
Johnson 22,71534.75%41,84764.01%8111.24%-19,132-29.26%65,373
Jones 4,83448.45%5,05450.65%900.90%-220-2.20%9,978
Keokuk 3,11956.92%2,29441.86%671.22%82515.06%5,480
Kossuth 5,04254.46%4,13244.63%840.91%9109.83%9,258
Lee 7,47241.84%10,15256.85%2341.32%-2,680-15.01%17,858
Linn 49,44244.65%60,44254.58%8560.77%-11,000-9.93%110,740
Louisa 2,57252.32%2,29746.72%470.96%2755.60%4,916
Lucas 2,54355.63%1,98743.47%410.90%55612.16%4,571
Lyon 4,75177.87%1,30321.36%470.77%3,44856.51%6,101
Madison 4,53856.70%3,38042.23%861.07%1,15814.47%8,004
Mahaska 6,85863.93%3,79035.33%800.74%3,06828.60%10,728
Marion 9,99059.83%6,57439.37%1320.79%3,41620.46%16,696
Marshall 9,55749.87%9,44349.27%1640.85%1140.60%19,164
Mills 4,55665.65%2,30833.26%761.10%2,24832.39%6,940
Mitchell 2,64648.28%2,78550.82%490.90%-139-2.54%5,480
Monona 2,57551.32%2,39747.77%460.92%1783.55%5,018
Monroe 2,06752.16%1,85546.81%411.03%2125.35%3,963
Montgomery 3,60164.81%1,89934.18%561.01%1,70230.63%5,556
Muscatine 9,02048.19%9,54250.98%1550.83%-522-2.79%18,717
O'Brien 5,32868.92%2,33030.14%730.95%2,99838.78%7,731
Osceola 2,29570.27%93428.60%371.14%1,36141.67%3,266
Page 5,24369.79%2,21129.43%590.78%3,03240.36%7,513
Palo Alto 2,67451.51%2,48247.81%350.68%1923.70%5,191
Plymouth 7,81063.90%4,27835.00%1341.09%3,53228.90%12,222
Pocahontas 2,44156.60%1,82242.24%501.16%61914.36%4,313
Polk 95,82847.29%105,21851.93%1,5720.77%-9,390-4.64%202,618
Pottawattamie 24,55858.72%16,90640.43%3560.85%7,65218.29%41,820
Poweshiek 4,96549.20%5,04349.98%830.83%-78-0.78%10,091
Ringgold 1,46652.77%1,28646.29%260.93%1806.48%2,778
Sac 3,12858.21%2,21541.22%310.57%91316.99%5,374
Scott 39,95848.30%42,12250.92%6420.77%-2,164-2.62%82,722
Shelby 4,25663.81%2,35535.31%590.88%1,90128.50%6,670
Sioux 14,22985.87%2,25913.63%820.49%11,97072.24%16,570
Story 20,81946.63%23,29652.17%5371.20%-2,477-5.54%44,652
Tama 4,45649.51%4,48749.85%580.65%-31-0.34%9,001
Taylor 1,90859.81%1,25239.25%300.93%65620.56%3,190
Union 3,16552.94%2,74745.95%661.10%4186.99%5,978
Van Buren 2,21157.64%1,56840.88%571.48%64316.76%3,836
Wapello 7,40344.31%9,12554.62%1791.07%-1,722-10.31%16,707
Warren 12,16052.75%10,73046.54%1630.70%1,4306.21%23,053
Washington 5,97755.92%4,59542.99%1161.08%1,38212.93%10,688
Wayne 1,73355.31%1,37944.02%210.67%35411.29%3,133
Webster 8,95948.09%9,56151.32%1110.60%-602-3.23%18,631
Winnebago 3,17553.34%2,70745.48%701.17%4687.86%5,952
Winneshiek 5,32449.37%5,35449.65%1060.98%-30-0.28%10,784
Woodbury 22,45150.80%21,45548.55%2890.66%9962.25%44,195
Worth 1,79543.54%2,28655.45%421.01%-491-11.91%4,123
Wright 3,63154.99%2,93044.37%420.63%70110.62%6,603
Totals751,95749.90%741,89849.23%13,0530.87%10,0590.67%1,506,908
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Gain from Republican
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic Iowa County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Bush won 3 of 5 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat. Kerry won two held by Republicans. [14]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st 46%53% Jim Nussle
2nd 44%55% Jim Leach
3rd 50%50% Leonard Boswell
4th 51%48% Tom Latham
5th 60%39% Steve King

Electors

Iowa voters cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Iowa has 7 electors because it has 5 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 7 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 7 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia meet in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Iowa. All were pledged to and voted for Bush and Cheney. [15]

  1. Julie Hosch
  2. Velma Huebner
  3. Don Racheter
  4. Marilyn Bose
  5. Don Kass
  6. Dorothy Schlitter
  7. Wanda Sears

See also

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  5. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
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  13. "Iowa Election 2004 Results, News and Polls for the Senate race. View the latest election results, news and polls. Conservative election commentary". Townhall. Retrieved November 22, 2020.[ permanent dead link ]
  14. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project" . Retrieved November 22, 2020.
  15. "The Electoral College". May 20, 2019.