2020 United States Senate election in Iowa

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2020 United States Senate election in Iowa
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  Joni Ernst, official portrait, 116th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg Theresa Greenfield (cropped).jpg
Nominee Joni Ernst Theresa Greenfield
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote864,997754,859
Percentage51.74%45.15%
2020 United States Senate election in Iowa results map by county.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Iowa results by congressional district.svg
2020 United States Senate election in Iowa results by state senate district.svg
IA Senate 2020.svg
Ernst:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Greenfield:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     40–50%
U.S. senator before election

Joni Ernst
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Joni Ernst
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2. [1]

Contents

Most experts and pollsters considered this race and the concurrent presidential race as a tossup due to incumbent president Donald Trump's low approval ratings and Ernst's own popularity dropping in polls, partly due to a viral moment in a debate where she did not know the price of corn. [2] Despite this, Ernst was reelected by a larger-than-expected 6.6 points, while Trump simultaneously won the state with a similarly unexpected margin of victory. Ernst carried an overwhelming majority of the state's counties including many rural ones, while Greenfield carried only eight counties: Polk, Linn, Scott, Johnson, Black Hawk, Story, Cerro Gordo and Jefferson. [3]

Despite Ernst's win, the election marked the worst Republican performance in the Class II seat since 1978, and the best Democratic performance since Tom Harkin's landslide victory in 2008. It is also the closest election since 1996.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Joni Ernst
Organizations

Result

Republican primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Joni Ernst (incumbent) 226,589 98.64%
Republican Write-In3,1321.36%
Total votes229,721 100.00%


Democratic primary

On June 2, 2020, Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, including Michael Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy. [11] [12] [13] [14] [15]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn

  • Cal Woods, journalist and U.S. Navy veteran [21] [22] [23] (endorsed Michael T. Franken)(remained on ballot)

Declined

Debates

Host

network

DateLink(s)Participants
Theresa

Greenfield

Michael

T. Franken

Kimberly

Graham

Eddie

Mauro

Iowa PBS May 18, 2020 [38] PresentPresentPresentPresent

Endorsements

Michael Franken
Federal officials
  • Chuck Hagel, former U.S. Secretary of Defense (2013–2015) and U.S. Senator from Nebraska (1997–2009) [39] (Republican)
Kimberly Graham
Individuals
Organizations
Theresa Greenfield
Federal officials
State officials
Individuals
Unions
Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Michael
Franken		Kimberly
Graham		Theresa
Greenfield		Eddie
Mauro		Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 5–6, 2020849 (V)–12%4%43%4%36%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019317 (LV)± 5.5%6%4%11%6%74%

Results

County results Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Greenfield--70-80% Greenfield--60-70% Greenfield--50-60% Greenfield--40-50% Greenfield--<40% Franken--<40% Iowa Senate Democratic primary, 2020.svg
County results
Results by county:
  Greenfield—70–80%
  Greenfield—60–70%
  Greenfield—50–60%
  Greenfield—40–50%
  Greenfield—<40%
  Franken—<40%
Democratic primary results [10]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Theresa Greenfield 132,001 47.71%
Democratic Michael T. Franken 68,85124.88%
Democratic Kimberly Graham41,55415.02%
Democratic Eddie Mauro30,40010.99%
Democratic Cal Woods (withdrawn)3,3721.21%
Democratic Write-In5140.19%
Total votes276,692 100.00%

Other candidates

Rick Stewart, the Libertarian nominee Rick Stewart portrait (cropped).jpg
Rick Stewart, the Libertarian nominee

Libertarian Party

Nominee

Independents

Declared

  • Suzanne Herzog, economist and former ER nurse [57]

General election

Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election. [58] [59] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points. [60] [61] [62] [63]

Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst. [64] [65] [66] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history, [67] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, where Cal Cunningham challenged Thom Tillis. [68]

Debate

HostDate & timeLink(s)Participants
Joni Ernst (R)Theresa Greenfield (D)
Iowa Press DebatesSeptember 28, 2020 [69] PresentPresent

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [70] TossupOctober 29, 2020
Inside Elections [71] TossupOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [72] Lean RNovember 2, 2020
Politico [73] TossupNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [74] TossupOctober 30, 2020
RCP [75] TossupOctober 23, 2020
DDHQ [76] TossupNovember 3, 2020
538 [77] TossupNovember 2, 2020
Economist [78] TossupNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Joni Ernst (R)
Organizations
Theresa Greenfield (D)
Federal officials
State and local officials
Individuals
Unions
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Graphical summary

Aggregate polling

Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst
Source of poll aggregationDates administeredDates updatedTheresa GreenfieldJoni ErnstOther/Undecided [lower-alpha 2] Margin
Real Clear Politics November 2, 2020November 3, 202045.8%47.2%7.0%
270 to Win November 2, 2020November 3, 202046.6%

47.0%

6.4%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Theresa
Greenfield (D)		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2020871 (V)–47%48%5%
Change Research October 29 – November 1, 20201,084 (LV)± 3.2%47%48%4% [lower-alpha 3]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 29 – November 1, 2020853 (LV)± 3.7%47%50%2% [lower-alpha 4]
Data for Progress October 27 – November 1, 2020951 (LV)± 3.2%45%49%6% [lower-alpha 5]
Emerson College October 29–31, 2020604 (LV)± 3.9%48% [lower-alpha 6] 51%2% [lower-alpha 7]
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 1] October 30, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%51%45%4% [lower-alpha 8]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register October 26–29, 2020814 (LV)± 3.4%46%42%11% [lower-alpha 9]
Quinnipiac University October 23–27, 20201,225 (LV)± 2.8%48%46%1% [lower-alpha 10]
RABA Research October 21–24, 2020693 (LV)± 4%45%51%–
Emerson College October 19–21, 2020435 (LV)± 4.7%51% [lower-alpha 6] 46%3% [lower-alpha 11]
RMG Research Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 15–21, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%43% [lower-alpha 12] 46%10% [lower-alpha 13]
41% [lower-alpha 14] 48%10% [lower-alpha 13]
45% [lower-alpha 15] 45%10% [lower-alpha 13]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020753 (LV)± 3.9%45%44%12% [lower-alpha 16]
Insider Advantage (R) Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 1] October 18–19, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%43%48%8% [lower-alpha 17]
Monmouth University October 15–19, 2020501 (RV)± 4.4%47%47%5% [lower-alpha 18]
501 (LV) [lower-alpha 19] 47%49%–
501 (LV) [lower-alpha 20] 45%51%–
Data for Progress (D) October 8–11, 2020822 (LV)± 3.4%43%47%10% [lower-alpha 21]
YouGov/CBS October 6–9, 20201,022 (LV)± 3.5%43%47%10% [lower-alpha 22]
Opinion Insight (R) [upper-alpha 2] October 5–8, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%47% [lower-alpha 6] 45%8% [lower-alpha 23]
Civiqs/Daily Kos October 3–6, 2020756 (LV)± 3.9%46%49%6% [lower-alpha 24]
Quinnipiac University October 1–5, 20201,205 (LV)± 2.8%45%50%5% [lower-alpha 10]
Data for Progress (D) September 23–28, 2020743 (LV)± 3.6%42% [lower-alpha 12] 44%14% [lower-alpha 25]
45% [lower-alpha 26] 46%9% [lower-alpha 27]
Hart Research Associates (D) [upper-alpha 3] September 24–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%48%–
RABA Research September 23–26, 2020780 (LV)± 4%39%51%–
Monmouth University September 18–22, 2020402 (RV)± 4.9%47%47%5% [lower-alpha 28]
402 (LV) [lower-alpha 19] 46%49%5% [lower-alpha 29]
402 (LV) [lower-alpha 20] 47%48%5% [lower-alpha 29]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 16–22, 2020501 (LV)± 4.99%40%42%19% [lower-alpha 30]
Selzer/Des Moines Register September 14–17, 2020658 (LV)± 3.8%42%45%12% [lower-alpha 31]
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates [upper-alpha 4] August 30 – September 5, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%50%45%5% [lower-alpha 32]
Opinion Insight (R) [upper-alpha 2] August 30 – September 2, 2020800 (LV)± 3.46%49% [lower-alpha 6] 43%7% [lower-alpha 33]
Public Policy Polling August 13–14, 2020729 (V)± 4.1%45%48%8% [lower-alpha 34]
Monmouth University July 30 – August 3, 2020401 (RV)± 4.9%48%45%6% [lower-alpha 35]
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 19] 48%47%6% [lower-alpha 35]
401 (LV) [lower-alpha 20] 48%47%5% [lower-alpha 36]
Data for Progress July 24 – August 2, 20201,101 (LV)± 3.2%43%45%11% [lower-alpha 37]
RMG Research July 27–30, 2020500 (RV)± 4.5%36%40%24% [lower-alpha 38]
Spry Strategies (R) [upper-alpha 5] July 11–16, 2020701 (LV)± 3.7%43%45%12% [lower-alpha 39]
GQR Research (D) [upper-alpha 6] June 23–28, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47%49%4%
Selzer/Des Moines Register June 7–10, 2020674 (LV)± 3.8%43%46%11%
Civiqs/Daily Kos June 6–8, 2020865 (RV)± 3.8%45%48%6%
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 7] June 3–4, 2020963 (V)± 3.4%43%45%12%
Public Policy Polling April 30 – May 1, 20201,222 (V)± 2.8%43%42%14%
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 6] December 13–15, 2019944 (V)± 3.4%47%41%12%
Emerson College October 13–16, 2019888 (RV)± 3.2%47%40%14%
Lake Research Partners (D) [upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%56%34%–
Hypothetical polling
with Eddie Mauro
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Eddie
Mauro (D)		Undecided
RABA Research/Eddie Mauro [upper-alpha 8] May 7–9, 2020632 (LV)± 3.9%42%42%–
Lake Research Partners (D) [upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%58% [lower-alpha 12] 33%–
49% [lower-alpha 40] 44%–
with Joni Ernst and generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 29–30, 2019780 (V)± 3.5%48%44%–
Public Policy Polling (D) [upper-alpha 9] June 30 – July 1, 2017784 (V)± 3.6%48%41%12%
with Joni Ernst and Generic Opponent
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Joni
Ernst (R)		Generic
Opponent		OtherUndecided
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. March 2–5, 2020667 (LV)± 3.8%41%31%3% [lower-alpha 41] 26% [lower-alpha 42]
with generic Republican and generic Democrat
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Generic
Republican		Generic
Democrat		Undecided
Lake Research Partners (D) [upper-alpha 8] April 24–29, 2019500 (LV)± 4.4%45%41%–

Results

2020 United States Senate election in Iowa [99]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Joni Ernst (incumbent) 864,997 51.74% -0.36%
Democratic Theresa Greenfield 754,85945.15%+1.39%
Libertarian Rick Stewart36,9612.21%+1.48%
Independent Suzanne Herzog13,8000.83%N/A
Write-in 1,2110.07%-0.03%
Total votes1,671,828 100.0%
Republican hold
By county
County [100] Joni Ernst
Republican 		Theresa Greenfield
Democratic 		Rick Stewart
Libertarian 		Suzanne Herzog
Independent 		Write-in MarginTotal
votes
#%#%#%#%#%#%
Adair 2,80967.781,20729.13892.15360.8730.071,60238.664,144
Adams 1,49769.3459427.51462.13190.8830.1490341.822,159
Allamakee 4,47861.042,60235.471752.39801.0910.011,87625.577,336
Appanoose 4,18965.601,95630.631682.63711.1120.032,23334.976,386
Audubon 2,18864.891,09232.38702.08210.6210.031,09632.503,372
Benton 8,83060.935,20235.903312.281200.8390.063,62825.0314,492
Black Hawk 29,22244.2734,96352.961,3011.974900.74370.06-5,741-8.7066,013
Boone 8,31554.746,31641.583852.531671.1070.051,99913.1615,190
Bremer 8,19656.725,91140.912541.76840.5850.032,28515.8114,450
Buchanan 6,06356.644,29240.102482.32960.9050.051,77116.5510,704
Buena Vista 4,72459.093,02237.801662.08750.9470.091,70221.297,994
Butler 5,29166.062,47430.891732.16690.8620.022,81735.178,009
Calhoun 3,51367.401,53129.371292.48320.6170.131,98238.035,212
Carroll 7,24564.913,58032.072302.06960.86110.103,66532.8311,162
Cass 4,72565.952,25931.531201.67540.7570.102,46634.427,165
Cedar 5,93556.304,30040.792262.14740.7060.061,63515.5110,541
Cerro Gordo 11,33948.1911,53449.024301.832110.90160.07-195-0.8323,530
Cherokee 4,21465.592,00231.161382.15671.0440.062,21234.436,425
Chickasaw 4,02461.162,32435.321592.42711.0820.031,70025.846,580
Clarke 2,90663.051,52032.981192.58601.3040.091,38630.074,609
Clay 5,71664.462,86132.261932.18891.0090.102,85532.198,868
Clayton 5,84561.373,43436.061571.65820.8660.062,41125.319,524
Clinton 12,55951.5710,94244.936352.612000.82150.061,6176.6424,351
Crawford 4,42463.122,33633.331602.28801.1490.132,08829.797,009
Dallas 28,72751.6925,42745.751,0061.813810.69330.063,3005.9455,574
Davis 2,72867.511,16728.881122.77320.7920.051,56138.634,041
Decatur 2,43965.211,16531.15902.41431.1530.081,27434.063,740
Delaware 6,45464.963,23532.561721.73710.7140.043,21932.409,936
Des Moines 9,46848.279,29647.395913.012321.18290.151720.8819,616
Dickinson 7,14963.923,79133.901741.56660.5940.043,35830.0311,184
Dubuque 26,03449.0525,43347.911,1482.164280.81370.076011.1353,080
Emmet 2,96561.811,63734.131473.06470.9810.021,32827.684,797
Fayette 5,86558.063,91238.732292.27890.8870.071,95319.3310,102
Floyd 4,18152.453,49843.881872.35981.2380.106838.577,972
Franklin 3,27064.551,63932.351001.97500.9970.141,63132.205,066
Fremont 2,56367.311,09928.86892.34561.4710.031,46438.453,808
Greene 3,06361.361,78435.741042.08390.7820.041,27925.624,992
Grundy 4,90067.902,12029.381542.13380.5350.072,78038.527,217
Guthrie 4,10364.862,00031.621622.56560.8950.082,10333.246,326
Hamilton 4,67959.422,91336.991902.41841.0790.111,76622.437,875
Hancock 4,00465.861,88130.941302.14600.9950.082,12334.926,080
Hardin 5,63963.802,92033.041952.21840.9510.012,71930.768,839
Harrison 5,05963.102,57432.102533.161181.47140.172,48530.998,018
Henry 5,87560.123,45735.383103.171161.19140.142,41824.749,772
Howard 2,71655.362,01441.051182.41581.1800.0070214.314,906
Humboldt 3,67169.741,44327.411082.05400.7620.042,22842.335,264
Ida 2,75772.2396425.26661.73280.7320.051,79346.973,817
Iowa 5,79460.133,54136.752052.13840.87110.112,25323.389,635
Jackson 6,17556.584,24938.943663.351181.0850.051,92617.6510,913
Jasper 11,40556.957,90539.475312.651670.83180.093,50017.4820,026
Jefferson 4,00845.504,54751.621631.85800.91100.11-539-6.128,808
Johnson 23,77328.7757,06369.061,3821.673730.45420.05-33,290-40.2982,633
Jones 6,32057.974,23738.862732.50680.6240.042,08319.1110,902
Keokuk 3,56568.391,48928.561011.94531.0250.102,07639.825,213
Kossuth 5,95766.142,79931.081932.14570.6300.003,15835.079,006
Lee 8,48951.297,44544.984852.931220.74110.071,0446.3116,552
Linn 53,24842.1069,12554.663,1882.528150.64900.07-15,877-12.55126,466
Louisa 3,25961.971,80434.301412.68510.9740.081,45527.675,259
Lucas 3,10568.321,30228.65992.18360.7930.071,80339.674,545
Lyon 5,52281.801,07315.891041.54500.7420.034,44965.906,751
Madison 6,24564.253,16832.592182.24860.8830.033,07731.669,720
Mahaska 7,86070.002,96926.442732.431181.0580.074,89143.5611,228
Marion 12,21164.066,26932.894232.221440.76150.085,94231.1719,062
Marshall 9,05750.688,18745.814422.471650.92210.128704.8717,872
Mills 5,34765.542,54431.181772.17821.0180.102,80334.368,158
Mitchell 3,34757.692,28239.331242.14490.8400.001,06518.365,802
Monona 3,05465.471,45531.191082.32390.8490.191,59934.284,665
Monroe 2,74268.401,14828.64842.10340.8510.021,59439.764,009
Montgomery 3,63368.531,52028.67981.85460.8740.082,11339.865,301
Muscatine 10,27850.289,38145.895702.791990.97130.068974.3920,441
O'Brien 5,67576.051,64021.981051.41380.5140.054,03554.077,462
Osceola 2,52577.3865720.13491.50310.9510.031,86857.253,263
Page 5,15269.272,06727.791381.86781.0530.043,08541.487,438
Palo Alto 3,11363.121,67734.001062.15360.7300.001,43629.124,932
Plymouth 10,14572.263,58725.552191.56770.55110.086,55846.7114,039
Pocahontas 2,64169.871,00326.53912.41391.0360.161,63843.333,780
Polk 106,44341.54142,32855.545,3132.071,9850.771880.07-35,885-14.00256,257
Pottawattamie 24,72054.8518,52041.101,2692.825241.16320.076,20013.7645,065
Poweshiek 5,36153.384,38143.622022.01910.9180.089809.7610,043
Ringgold 1,87069.3673227.15752.78160.5930.111,13842.212,696
Sac 3,84970.171,44026.251292.35601.0970.132,40943.925,485
Scott 42,94146.8845,75149.942,1392.337090.77660.07-2,810-3.0791,606
Shelby 4,48967.061,98929.711562.33570.8530.042,50037.356,694
Sioux 15,78583.542,82814.971921.02810.4390.0512,95768.5718,895
Story 20,75041.0828,21655.861,1332.243700.73440.09-7,466-14.7850,513
Tama 5,09056.743,58840.002052.29790.8880.091,50216.748,970
Taylor 2,33772.8076223.74832.59280.8700.001,57549.073,210
Union 3,82062.382,05133.491722.81761.2450.081,76928.896,124
Van Buren 2,58368.841,06528.38752.00280.7510.031,51840.463,752
Wapello 8,46455.156,34441.333942.571320.86140.092,12013.8115,348
Warren 17,27656.2712,47840.646922.252340.76230.074,79815.6330,703
Washington 6,77358.124,51938.782622.25950.8250.042,25419.3411,654
Wayne 2,18671.5578425.66531.73280.9240.131,40245.893,055
Webster 10,19557.816,84538.814032.291730.98190.113,35019.0017,635
Winnebago 3,33656.292,36139.841532.58721.2140.0797516.455,926
Winneshiek 6,03950.495,58146.662181.821180.9940.034583.8311,960
Woodbury 24,17554.2718,67441.929942.236291.41720.165,50112.3544,544
Worth 2,42555.401,80341.19982.24461.0550.1162214.214,377
Wright 3,88962.852,06333.341582.55761.2320.031,82629.516,188
Totals864,99751.74754,85945.1536,9612.2113,8000.831,2110.07110,1386.591,671,828
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
By congressional district
District [99] Joni Ernst
Republican 		Theresa Greenfield
Democratic 		Rick Stewart
Libertarian 		Suzanne Herzog
Independent 		Write-in MarginTotal votes Representative
(2020)
#%#%#%#%#%#%
1st district 206,55949.48197,79247.729,4542.263,2310.772670.068,7672.10417,483 Ashley Hinson
2nd district 199,74149.17193,58847.659,4262.323,1970.792950.076,1531.51406,247 Mariannette Miller-Meeks
3rd district 221,26748.75218,75648.209,7472.153,7570.833210.072,5110.55453,848 Cindy Axne
4th district 237,43060.22144,54336.668,3342.113,6150.923280.0892,88723.56394,250 Randy Feenstra
Totals864,99751.74754,85945.1536,9612.2113,8000.831,2110.07110,1386.591,671,828

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The Center for American Greatness, a pro-Trump organization.
  2. 1 2 Poll sponsored by The American Action Forum, which is a 501 organization which usually supports Republican candidates.
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by The Human Rights Campaign, which has endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by AARP.
  5. ↑ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501 that supports the Republican Party.
  6. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the End Citizens United, which has only supported Democratic candidates who are against the landmark Citizens United Supreme Court ruling.
  7. ↑ Poll sponsored by Emily's List, an organization that supports Democratic female candidates.
  8. 1 2 3 4 Poll sponsored by the Eddie Mauro campaign
  9. ↑ Poll sponsored by Save My Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
Voter samples
  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ↑ Stewart (L) with 2%; "Don't recall" and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and would not vote with 0%
  4. ↑ Stewart (L) and Undecided with 1%; Herzog (I) and "Someone else" with 0%
  5. ↑ Herzog (I) with 3%; Stewart (L) with 2%; "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
  6. 1 2 3 4 With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%
  8. ↑ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  9. ↑ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" and "Undecided/do not remember" with 3%; would not vote with 1%
  10. 1 2 "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  11. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  12. 1 2 3 Standard VI response
  13. 1 2 3 "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  14. ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  15. ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  16. ↑ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%; "Undecided/Refused" with 6%
  17. ↑ Stewart (L) with 5%; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  18. ↑ Herzog (I), "No one" and Stewart (L) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 2%
  19. 1 2 3 With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  20. 1 2 3 With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
  21. ↑ Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Other" with 0%; Undecided with 6%
  22. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 8%
  23. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  24. ↑ Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  25. ↑ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 1%; Undecided with 12%
  26. ↑ If the only candidates were Ernst and Greenfield
  27. ↑ Undecided with 9%
  28. ↑ Stewart (L) with 1%; Herzog (I), "Other" and "No one" with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  29. 1 2 Stewart (L) with 1; Herzog (I) with 0%; Undecided with 4%
  30. ↑ Herzog (I) and Stewart (L) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 14%
  31. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 2%; Undecided with 7%
  32. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  33. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; Undecided with 7%
  34. ↑ Undecided with 8%
  35. 1 2 Stewart (L) with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%; Undecided with 3%
  36. ↑ Stewart (L) and Undecided with 2%; Herzog (I) with 1%
  37. ↑ "No one" with 11%
  38. ↑ Undecided with 24%
  39. ↑ "Another candidate" with 6%; Undecided with 7%
  40. ↑ Response after pollster addresses respondents with talking points about Ernst and Mauro
  41. ↑ Would not vote with 3%
  42. ↑ "Would consider voting for someone else" with 20%; "unsure" with 6%

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References

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