2020 Montana gubernatorial election

Last updated

2020 Montana gubernatorial election
Flag of Montana.svg
  2016 November 3, 2020 2024  
Turnout81.33%Increase2.svg6.89 [1]
  Greg Gianforte 115th congress (cropped 2).jpg Mike Cooney in 2017.jpg
Nominee Greg Gianforte Mike Cooney
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Kristen Juras Casey Schreiner
Popular vote328,548250,860
Percentage54.43%41.56%

2020 Montana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
MT Governor 2020.svg
Gianforte:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Cooney:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
     No data

Governor before election

Steve Bullock
Democratic

Elected Governor

Greg Gianforte
Republican

The 2020 Montana gubernatorial election was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the next governor of Montana, concurrently with the U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives and various state and local elections. It resulted in voters selecting Greg Gianforte over Mike Cooney. Incumbent Democratic governor Steve Bullock was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term in office, and he ran unsuccessfully for Montana's Class II Senate seat. [2]

Contents

Bullock's lieutenant governor, Mike Cooney, was the Democratic nominee, while the Republican nominee was Montana's at-large representative Greg Gianforte, who won the election, making him the first Republican governor of Montana since Judy Martz left office in 2005. [3] This was the only gubernatorial seat to change partisan control in the 2020 elections. This election marked the first time since the 1920s that Republicans controlled all state constitutional offices and a majority of the Legislature. [4]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Whitney Williams, businesswoman and daughter of former U.S. Representative Pat Williams [7]
    • Running mate: Buzz Mattelin, farmer and president of the National Barley Growers Association

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Mike Cooney

Statewide politicians

Federal politicians

Organizations

Whitney Williams

Statewide politicians

Local politicians

Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Cooney
Reilly
Neill
Casey
Schreiner
Whitney
Williams
Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings [26] October 7–16, 201940 (LV)19%2%6%11%62%

Results

Results by county
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Cooney
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Tie
50-60%
Williams
50-60% Montana gubernatorial Democratic primary, 2020.svg
Results by county
  Cooney
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Tie
  •   50–60%
  Williams
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mike Cooney 81,527 54.86%
Democratic Whitney Williams 67,06645.14%
Total votes148,593 100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

  • Running mate: Jon Knokey, former state representative

Withdrawn

Declined

Endorsements

Greg Gianforte

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Tim
Fox
Greg
Gianforte
Albert
Olszewski
Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings [43] October 7–16, 201999 (LV)25%33%9%32%
Gravis Marketing [44] August 28–30, 2019433 (RV)± 4.7%29%56%15%
Moore Information [45] [A] July 7–10, 2019400 (LV)± 5.0%17%56%5%23%

Results

Results by county
Gianforte
40-50%
50-60%
60-70%
70-80%
Fox
40-50%
50-60% Montana gubernatorial Republican primary, 2020.svg
Results by county
  Gianforte
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Fox
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Republican primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Greg Gianforte 119,247 53.44%
Republican Tim Fox 60,82327.26%
Republican Albert Olszewski 43,08019.30%
Total votes223,150 100.00%

Other candidates

Libertarian Party

Nominee

  • Lyman Bishop, founder and CEO of Hoplite Armor [46]
    • Running mate: John Nesper

Withdrawn

  • Ron Vandevender, nominee for lieutenant governor in 2016 and nominee for governor in 2012 [47] [48] [49]

Green Party

Disqualified

  • Robert Barb [46] [50]
    • Running mate: Joshua Thomas

Results

Green primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green Robert Barb 713 100.0%
Total votes713 100.0%

General election

Debate

HostDate & TimeLink(s)Participants
Mike Cooney (D)Greg Gianforte (R)
Montana PBSOctober 6, 2020
6:00pm MDT
[51] PresentPresent

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [52] TossupOctober 23, 2020
Inside Elections [53] TossupOctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [54] Lean R (flip)November 2, 2020
Politico [55] Lean R (flip)November 2, 2020
Daily Kos [56] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2020
RCP [57] TossupNovember 2, 2020
270towin [58] TossupNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Mike Cooney (D)

Statewide and local politicians

Federal politicians

Organizations

Greg Gianforte (R)

U.S. Presidents

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Mike
Cooney (D)
Greg
Gianforte (R)
Other /
Undecided
Change Research [60] October 29 – November 2, 2020920 (LV)± 3.5%44% 48% 6% [b]
Montana State University Billings [61] October 19–24, 2020546 (LV)± 4.2%45%45%11% [c]
Siena College/NYT Upshot [62] October 18–20, 2020758 (LV)± 4.4%44%48%8% [d]
Strategies 360/NBCMT [63] October 15–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%41%48%11% [e]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ [64] October 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%45% [f] 48%5% [g]
47% [h] 46%5% [i]
43% [j] 50%5% [k]
Emerson College [65] October 4–7, 2020500 (LV)± 3.7%41%54%5% [l]
Montana State University Bozeman [66] September 14 – October 2, 20201,605 (LV)± 3.9%42%47%11% [m]
Siena College/NYT Upshot [67] September 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%39%45%16% [n]
Global Strategy Group (D) [68] August 18–23, 2020600 (LV)46%47%
Emerson College [69] July 31 – August 2, 2020584 (LV)± 4.0%41%50%10% [o]
Civiqs/Daily Kos [70] July 11–13, 2020873 (RV)± 4.2%44%47%9% [p]
Public Policy Polling [71] [B] July 9–10, 20201,224 (V)± 2.8%42%46%12% [q]
University of Montana [72] June 17–26, 2020517 (RV)± 4.3%36%46%18% [r]
The Progress Campaign (D) [73] April 14–21, 20201,712 (RV)± 4.6%41%43%16% [s]
Hypothetical polling

with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Albert Olszewski, Ron Vandevender and Whitney Williams

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Democratic
Candidates
Republican
Candidates
Ron
Vandevender (L)
University of Montana [74] February 12–22, 2020498 (LV)± 4.4%35.1% [t] 61.7% [u] 1.3%

with Mike Cooney, Tim Fox, Greg Gianforte, Reilly Neill, Albert Olszewski, Gary Perry, Casey Schreiner and Whitney Williams

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Democratic
Candidates
Republican
Candidates
University of Montana [75] September 26 – October 3, 2019303 (RV)± 5.6%40% [v] 60.1% [w]

with Tim Fox, Matt Rosendale, Corey Stapleton, Kathleen Williams and Whitney Williams

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [a]
Margin
of error
Democratic
Candidates
Republican
Candidates
Other /
Undecided
University of Montana [76] February 21 – March 1, 2019293 (RV)± 5.7%32.4% [x] 48.4% [y] 19.2% [z]

Results

2020 Montana gubernatorial election [77] [78]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican 328,548 54.43% +8.08%
Democratic 250,86041.56%−8.69%
Libertarian
  • Lyman Bishop
  • John Nesper
24,1794.01%+0.61%
Write-in 210.00%N/A
Total votes603,608 100.00%
Turnout 612,07581.33%
Registered electors 752,538
Republican gain from Democratic

By county

CountyGreg Gianforte

Kristen Juras Republican

Mike Cooney

Casey Schreiner Democratic

Lyman Bishop

John Nesper Libertarian

MarginTotal

votes

%#%#%#%#
Beaverhead 66.81%3,77929.49%1,6683.70%20939.32%2,1115,656
Big Horn 43.35%2,07852.42%2,5134.23%203-9.07%-4454,794
Blaine 43.79%1,36551.94%1,6194.27%133-8.15%-2543,117
Broadwater 73.97%3,03222.64%9283.39%13951.33%2,1044,099
Carbon 60.81%4,30335.30%2,4983.89%27525.51%1,8057,076
Carter 87.28%74810.62%912.10%1876.66%657857
Cascade 55.79%22,22139.97%15,9224.24%1,68915.82%6,29939,832
Chouteau 61.10%1,81635.26%1,0483.63%10825.84%7682,972
Custer 67.66%3,97127.59%1,6194.75%27940.07%2,3525,869
Daniels 76.11%76821.51%2172.38%2454.60%5511,009
Dawson 73.02%3,52423.29%1,1243.69%17849.73%2,4004,826
Deer Lodge 38.60%1,88156.37%2,7475.03%245-17.77%-8664,873
Fallon 82.83%1,28814.02%2183.15%4968.81%1,0701,555
Fergus 72.89%4,73724.11%1,5673.00%19548.78%3,1706,499
Flathead 62.20%37,21334.08%20,3873.72%2,22528.12%16,82659,825
Gallatin 44.21%31,36851.85%36,7883.94%2,8007.64%5,42070,956
Garfield 92.37%7515.91%481.72%1486.46%703813
Glacier 30.07%1,70965.62%3,7304.31%245-35.55%-2,0215,684
Golden Valley 81.31%40915.91%802.78%1465.40%329503
Granite 64.37%1,34831.47%6594.16%8732.90%6892,094
Hill 50.72%3,64243.81%3,1465.47%3936.91%4967,181
Jefferson 62.39%5,09734.17%2,7913.44%28128.22%2,3068,169
Judith Basin 75.56%1,01720.88%2813.56%4854.68%7461,346
Lake 53.73%8,91341.50%6,8854.77%79112.23%2,02816,589
Lewis and Clark 47.05%19,96949.54%21,0223.41%1,448-2.49%-1,05342,439
Liberty 72.76%78824.75%2682.49%2748.01%5201,083
Lincoln 70.74%8,27925.64%3,0013.62%42445.10%5,27811,704
Madison 65.57%3,99230.83%1,8773.60%21934.74%2,1156,088
McCone 82.45%92114.77%1652.78%3167.68%7561,117
Meagher 74.01%82323.02%2562.97%3350.99%5671,112
Mineral 67.20%1,71527.67%7065.13%13139.53%1,0092,552
Missoula 35.55%25,44860.67%43,4263.78%2,706-25.12%-17,97871,580
Musselshell 80.77%2,31815.68%4503.55%10265.09%1,8682,870
Park 50.07%5,79846.32%5,3643.61%4183.75%43411,580
Petroleum 85.43%29912.57%442.00%772.86%255350
Phillips 80.40%1,90817.36%4122.24%5363.04%1,4962,373
Pondera 66.10%1,98130.43%9123.47%10435.67%1,0692,997
Powder River 83.53%94314.35%1622.12%2469.18%7811,129
Powell 69.41%2,21226.64%8493.95%12642.77%1,3633,187
Prairie 74.52%54421.92%1603.56%2652.60%384730
Ravalli 65.11%18,55731.17%8,8833.72%1,06333.94%9,67428,503
Richland 78.31%4,50617.67%1,0174.02%23160.64%3,4895,754
Roosevelt 46.39%1,85948.94%1,9614.67%187-2.55%-1024,007
Rosebud 63.06%2,36332.99%1,2363.95%14830.07%1,1273,747
Sanders 70.47%5,34624.65%1,8704.88%37045.82%3,4767,586
Sheridan 64.48%1,30031.45%6344.07%8233.03%6662,016
Silver Bow 34.57%6,49061.23%11,4954.20%788-26.66%-5,00518,773
Stillwater 74.96%4,29222.06%1,2632.98%17152.90%3,0295,726
Sweet Grass 73.57%1,80122.59%5533.84%9450.98%1,2482,448
Teton 67.76%2,49728.58%1,0533.66%13539.18%1,4443,685
Toole 73.10%1,54622.13%4684.78%10150.97%1,0782,115
Treasure 77.82%35819.35%892.83%1358.47%269460
Valley 68.24%2,89927.83%1,1823.93%16740.41%1,7174,248
Wheatland 72.36%76723.68%2513.96%4248.68%5161,060
Wibaux 79.49%46517.95%1052.56%1561.54%360585
Yellowstone 57.03%48,58636.57%31,1526.40%545320.46%17,43485,191
Total54.43%328,54841.56%250,8604.01%24,17912.87%77,688603,587

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Bishop (L) with 3%; "Don't recall" with 2%; Did not vote with 1%; Would not vote with 0%; Undecided with 1%
  3. Bishop (L) with 2%; Undecided with 9%
  4. Bishop (L) with 4%; "Someone else" and would not vote with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 4%
  5. Bishop (L) with 4%; Undecided with 7%
  6. Standard VI response
  7. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  8. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  9. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  10. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  11. "Some other candidate" with 2%; Undecided with 3%
  12. "Someone else" with 1%; Undecided with 4%
  13. "Other" with 4% (including Bishop (L) with <2%); Undecided with 7%
  14. Bishop (L) with 4%; Barb (G) and would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  15. "Someone else" with 3%; Undecided with 7%
  16. "Someone else" with 5%; Undecided with 4%
  17. Undecided with 12%
  18. Undecided with 18.3%
  19. Undecided with 16%
  20. Cooney with 21%; Williams with 14.1%
  21. Gianforte with 35%; Fox with 21.6%; Olszewski with 6.9%
  22. Cooney with 23%; Williams with 7.9%; Schreiner with 6%; Neill with 3.1%
  23. Gianforte with 35.1%; Fox with 16.1%; Olszewski with 8.1%; Perry with 0.8%
  24. Kathleen Williams with 26.6%; Cooney with 5.2%; Whitney Williams with 0.6%
  25. Fox with 16.8%; Gianforte with 16.1%; Stapleton with 8%; Rosendale with 7.5%
  26. "Someone else" with 15.4%; "none/do not plan to vote" with 3.8%

Partisan clients

  1. Commissioned by Gianforte
  2. Poll's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

References

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Official campaign websites