2020 United States Senate election in Alaska

Last updated

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska
Flag of Alaska.svg
  2014 November 3, 2020 2026  
  Senator Dan Sullivan official (cropped).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Dan Sullivan Al Gross
Party Republican Independent [a]
Alliance Democratic [a]
Popular vote191,112146,068
Percentage53.90%41.19%

Alaska Senate Election Results by State House District, 2020.svg
2020 U.S. Senate election in Alaska 2.svg
AK Senate 2020.svg
Sullivan:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Gross:     30–40%     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70-80%     >80%
Tie:     40–50%
     No votes

U.S. senator before election

Dan Sullivan
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Dan Sullivan
Republican

The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the nationwide presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate. [2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.

Contents

Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020. [3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well [4] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls. [5] However, this lead did not materialize. Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%, triple his average lead in the pre-election polling. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Withdrawn

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan

U.S. federal officials

Individuals

Primary results

Republican primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 65,257 100.00%
Total votes65,257 100.00%

Libertarian–Democratic–Independence primary

Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. [12]

Democratic candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified from the ballot

  • Larry N. Barnes (independent) [8] [b]

Withdrawn

  • David Darden (independent), nonpartisan candidate for Anchorage Assembly District 3 Seat E in the 2018 special election [8]

Alaskan Independence candidates

Nominee

  • John Howe (Alaskan Independence), machinist [14]

Endorsements

Primary results

Democratic–Libertarian–Independence primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Independent Al Gross 50,047 79.87%
Democratic Edgar Blatchford 5,4638.72%
Independence John Howe 4,165 6.65%
Independent Christopher Cumings2,9894.77%
Total votes62,664 100.00%

Other candidates

Green Party

Nominee

Independent

Declared

Withdrawn

  • David Matheny, wildfire technician [31] [32]

General election

Issues

Pebble Mine

Before the election, the Trump administration considered granting a permit for the construction of Pebble Mine, a copper, gold, and molybdenum mine in Bristol Bay. [33] Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020, citing environmental concerns. [34] [35] In September 2020, recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska's senators, including Sullivan, would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition. [36] Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan, claiming that Sullivan actually supported Pebble Mine. In response, Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine. [37] The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10. In the debate, Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine, while Sullivan defended his opposition. [38]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [39] Lean ROctober 29, 2020
FiveThirtyEight [40] Likely RNovember 2, 2020
Economist [41] Lean RNovember 2, 2020
Daily Kos [42] Lean ROctober 30, 2020
DDHQ [43] Lean RNovember 3, 2020
Inside Elections [44] Lean ROctober 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [45] Lean RNovember 2, 2020
RCP [46] Lean ROctober 23, 2020
Politico [47] Lean RNovember 2, 2020

Endorsements

Dan Sullivan (R)

U.S. federal officials

Organizations

Individuals

Labor unions

Newspapers

Al Gross (I)

U.S. senators

State executives

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Unions

Polls

Graphical summary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Al
Gross (I)
John
Howe (AI)
OtherUndecided
Gravis Marketing [62] October 26–28, 2020770 (LV)± 3.5%48%45%7%
Public Policy Polling (D) [63] [A] October 19–20, 2020800 (V)± 3.5%44%41%5%10%
Change Research (I) [64] [B] October 16–19, 20201,076 (LV)± 4%47%44%3%5%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [65] October 9–14, 2020423 (LV)± 5.7%45%37%10%2% [d] 7% [e]
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I) [66] [B] October 10–13, 2020606 (LV)± 4%46%47%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I) [66] [B] October 2–6, 2020600 (LV)46%46%
Patinkin Research Strategies [67] September 30 – October 4, 2020600 (LV)± 4%46%47%2% [f] 5%
Alaska Survey Research [68] September 26 – October 4, 2020696 (LV)48%44%8%
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I) [69] [C] September 20–23, 2020602 (LV)± 4%46%45%
Public Policy Polling (D) [70] August 27–28, 2020638 (V)± 3.9%43%43%14%
Public Policy Polling [71] [D] July 7–8, 20201,081 (V)± 3.0%39%34%27%
Alaska Survey Research [72] June 23 – July 7, 2020663 (LV)± 3.8%53%40%7%
Hypothetical polling

with Forrest Dunbar

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Forrest
Dunbar (D)
Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies [73] May 28 – Jun 4, 2019500 (LV)39%39%22%

with Forrest Dunbar as an independent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [c]
Margin
of error
Dan
Sullivan (R)
Forrest
Dunbar (I)
Undecided
Patinkin Research Strategies [73] May 28 – June 4, 2019500 (LV)42%40%19%

Results

2020 United States Senate election in Alaska [74]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Dan Sullivan (incumbent) 191,112 53.90% +5.94%
Independent Al Gross [a] 146,06841.19%−4.64%
Independence John Howe16,8064.74%N/A
Write-in 6010.17%−0.32%
Total votes354,587 100.0%
Republican hold

By state house district

By state house district
District [75] Dan Sullivan
Republican
Al Gross
Independent
John Howe
Independence
Write-in MarginTotal
votes
Representative
#%#%#%#%#%
District 1 3,48748.363,29345.674145.74160.221942.697,210 Bart LeBon
District 23,379'59.751,89533.513726.5890.161,48426.245,655 Steve M. Thompson
District 36,00472.321,81021.804805.7880.104,19450.528,302 Mike Prax
District 44,81745.695,30150.284073.86170.16-484-4.5910,542 Grier Hopkins
District 54,18848.494,10447.523323.84130.15840.978,637 Adam Wool
District 65,60160.873,06833.345185.63150.162,53316.669,202 Mike Cronk
District 76,75270.902,18522.945635.91230.244,56747.969,523 Christopher Kurka
District 87,25373.861,98020.165745.84130.135,27353.709,820 Kevin J. McCabe
District 97,58269.532,78625.555194.76170.164,79643.9810,904 George Rauscher
District 107,73569.722,74224.715985.39200.184,99345.0011,095 David Eastman
District 117,05166.633,04728.794764.5080.084,00437.8410,582 DeLena Johnson
District 127,87770.732,82425.364253.82110.105,05345.3711,137 Cathy Tilton
District 134,68462.752,40032.153724.9880.112,28430.607,464 Ken McCarty
District 147,11462.233,89434.064153.6390.083,22028.1711,432 Kelly Merrick
District 152,61348.612,44945.563085.7350.091643.055,375 David Nelson
District 163,54543.874,11050.874105.07150.19-565-6.998,080 Ivy Spohnholz
District 172,90340.423,95155.013154.39130.18-1,048-14.597,182 Andy Josephson
District 182,80736.634,55359.412893.77140.18-1,746-22.787,663 Harriet Drummond
District 191,87635.733,04658.013105.90190.36-1,170-22.285,251 Geran Tarr
District 202,52633.954,65762.592433.27140.19-2,131-28.647,440 Zack Fields
District 213,98042.215,14154.522963.14120.13-1,161-12.319,429 Matt Claman
District 224,97752.164,20244.043363.52260.277757.919,541 Sara Rasmussen
District 233,73448.383,63847.143354.34110.14961.247,718 Chris Tuck
District 245,83555.874,36341.782382.2870.071,47214.1010,443 Thomas McKay
District 254,55649.074,36747.033503.77120.131892.049,285 Calvin Schrage
District 265,65155.954,17241.312672.64100.101,47914.6410,100 Laddie Shaw
District 274,53447.76{4,60848.543423.6090.09-74-0.789,493 Liz Snyder
District 286,75352.835,77645.182441.91100.089777.6412,783 James D. Kaufman
District 297,23767.862,92327.414974.6670.074,31440.4510,664 Ben Carpenter
District 307,03470.062,50224.924854.83190.194,53245.1410,040 Ron Gillham
District 316,76354.845,04940.944984.04230.191,71413.9012,333 Sarah Vance
District 324,30952.493,44942.014385.34130.1686010.488,209 Louise Stutes
District 333,07428.207,46368.473413.13210.19-4,389-40.2710,899 Sara Hannan
District 344,66743.575,60852.354273.99100.09-941-8.7810,712 Andi Story
District 354,38843.845,00449.995985.97200.20-616-6.1510,010 Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
District 365,00554.423,67940.004955.38180.201,32614.429,197 Dan Ortiz
District 372,39347.172,30345.403667.21110.22901.775,073 Bryce Edgmon
District 381,69832.072,97256.1361011.52150.28-1,274-24.065,295 Tiffany Zulkosky
District 392,40341.032,70146.1269911.93540.92-298-5.095,857 Neal Foster
District 402,27549.561,70637.1759412.94150.3356912.404,590 Josiah Patkotak
Totals191,11253.90146,06841.1916,8064.746010.1745,04412.70354,587

Boroughs and census areas that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Gross ran as an independent with the nomination of the Democratic Party, and was listed on the ballot as the Democratic nominee. [1]
  2. Payment of filing fee was not made prior to the deadline.
  3. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  5. Includes "Refused"
  6. "Someone else" with 2%

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organization.
  2. 1 2 3 Poll conducted for Gross' campaign.
  3. Poll sponsored by The Independent Alaska PAC, which has supported Al Gross's campaign for the US Senate race in Alaska prior to this poll's sampling period.
  4. Polling's funding was crowdsourced by Election Twitter.

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Further reading

Official campaign websites