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Sullivan: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% Gross: 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70-80% >80% Tie: 40–50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in Alaska |
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alaska, concurrently with the nationwide presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Senator Dan Sullivan won re-election to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Al Gross, the son of Avrum Gross, who ran as an independent candidate. [2] John Wayne Howe, the nominee of the Alaskan Independence Party, was also on the ballot and finished a distant third.
Both primaries took place on August 18, 2020. [3] Some pundits considered this to be a potential "dark horse" flip for the Democrats, as Gross did unexpectedly well [4] in polling despite Alaska usually being considered a Republican stronghold, even leading in some polls. [5] However, this lead did not materialize. Sullivan won re-election by a margin of 12.7%, triple his average lead in the pre-election polling. Sullivan also became the first candidate since 2002 to win a Senate election in Alaska with more than 50% of the vote.
U.S. federal officials
Individuals
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Dan Sullivan (incumbent) | 65,257 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 65,257 | 100.00% |
Candidates from the Alaska Democratic Party, the Alaska Libertarian Party, and the Alaskan Independence Party appear on the same ballot, with the highest-placed candidate from each party receiving that party's nomination. In October 2017, the Alaska Democratic Party sued for the right to allow non-Democrats to compete for and win the Democratic nomination, which was ultimately decided in their favor in April 2018. [12]
Local officials
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Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Independent | Al Gross | 50,047 | 79.87% | |
Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 5,463 | 8.72% | |
Independence | John Howe | 4,165 | 6.65% | |
Independent | Christopher Cumings | 2,989 | 4.77% | |
Total votes | 62,664 | 100.00% |
Before the election, the Trump administration considered granting a permit for the construction of Pebble Mine, a copper, gold, and molybdenum mine in Bristol Bay. [33] Gross and Sullivan were both critical of the mine by August 2020, citing environmental concerns. [34] [35] In September 2020, recordings were released in which executives Tom Collier and Ron Thiessen stated that Alaska's senators, including Sullivan, would not take any concrete steps to oppose the mine despite their stated opposition. [36] Gross used the recordings to attack Sullivan, claiming that Sullivan actually supported Pebble Mine. In response, Sullivan clarified his opposition to the mine. [37] The mine was a major topic during the Senate debate on October 10. In the debate, Gross attacked Sullivan for being insufficiently opposed to the mine, while Sullivan defended his opposition. [38]
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report [39] | Lean R | October 29, 2020 |
FiveThirtyEight [40] | Likely R | November 2, 2020 |
Economist [41] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos [42] | Lean R | October 30, 2020 |
DDHQ [43] | Lean R | November 3, 2020 |
Inside Elections [44] | Lean R | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball [45] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
RCP [46] | Lean R | October 23, 2020 |
Politico [47] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
U.S. federal officials
Organizations
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Labor unions
Newspapers
U.S. senators
State executives
Local officials
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Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Dan Sullivan (R) | Al Gross (I) | John Howe (AI) | Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing [62] | October 26–28, 2020 | 770 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | – | – | 7% |
Public Policy Polling (D) [63] [A] | October 19–20, 2020 | 800 (V) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 5% | – | 10% |
Change Research (I) [64] [B] | October 16–19, 2020 | 1,076 (LV) | ± 4% | 47% | 44% | 3% | – | 5% |
Siena College/NYT Upshot [65] | October 9–14, 2020 | 423 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 45% | 37% | 10% | 2% [d] | 7% [e] |
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I) [66] [B] | October 10–13, 2020 | 606 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 47% | – | – | – |
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I) [66] [B] | October 2–6, 2020 | 600 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | – | – | – |
Patinkin Research Strategies [67] | September 30 – October 4, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 47% | – | 2% [f] | 5% |
Alaska Survey Research [68] | September 26 – October 4, 2020 | 696 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | – | – | 8% |
Harstad Strategic Research, Inc. (I) [69] [C] | September 20–23, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4% | 46% | 45% | – | – | – |
Public Policy Polling (D) [70] | August 27–28, 2020 | 638 (V) | ± 3.9% | 43% | 43% | – | – | 14% |
Public Policy Polling [71] [D] | July 7–8, 2020 | 1,081 (V) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 34% | – | – | 27% |
Alaska Survey Research [72] | June 23 – July 7, 2020 | 663 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 40% | – | – | 7% |
with Forrest Dunbar
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Dan Sullivan (R) | Forrest Dunbar (D) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patinkin Research Strategies [73] | May 28 – Jun 4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | – | 39% | 39% | 22% |
with Forrest Dunbar as an independent
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size [c] | Margin of error | Dan Sullivan (R) | Forrest Dunbar (I) | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patinkin Research Strategies [73] | May 28 – June 4, 2019 | 500 (LV) | – | 42% | 40% | 19% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Dan Sullivan (incumbent) | 191,112 | 53.90% | +5.94% | |
Independent | Al Gross [a] | 146,068 | 41.19% | −4.64% | |
Independence | John Howe | 16,806 | 4.74% | N/A | |
Write-in | 601 | 0.17% | −0.32% | ||
Total votes | 354,587 | 100.0% | |||
Republican hold |
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Partisan clients
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