2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska

Last updated

2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska
Flag of Nebraska.svg
  2018 November 3, 2020 2022  

All 3 Nebraska seats to the United States House of Representatives
 Majority partyMinority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election30
Seats won30
Seat changeSteady2.svgSteady2.svg
Popular vote585,234326,018
Percentage62.17%34.63%
SwingIncrease2.svg 0.14%Decrease2.svg 3.34%

2020 U.S. House elections in Nebraska.svg
2020 United States House of Representatives Elections in Nebraska by county.svg

The 2020 United States House of Representatives elections in Nebraska was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the three U.S. representatives from the state of Nebraska, one from each of the state's three congressional districts. The elections coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Contents

Overview

District Republican Democratic OthersTotalResult
Votes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
District 1 189,00659.52%119,62237.67%8,9382.81%317,566100.0%Republican hold
District 2 171,07150.77%155,70646.21%10,1853.02%336,962100.0%Republican hold
District 3 225,15778.51%50,69017.68%10,9233.81%286,770100.0%Republican hold
Total585,23462.17%326,01834.63%30,0463.19%941,298100.0%
Popular vote
Republican
62.17%
Democratic
34.63%
Other
3.19%
House seats
Republican
100.00%

District 1

2020 Nebraska's 1st congressional district election
Flag of Nebraska.svg
  2018
  Jeff Fortenberry Official Portrait 115th Congress.jpg Katebolz sd nebraska (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jeff Fortenberry Kate Bolz
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote189,006119,622
Percentage59.5%37.7%

NE 1st 2020.svg
Fortenberry:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Bolz:     40–50%

U.S. Representative before election

Jeff Fortenberry
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Jeff Fortenberry
Republican

The 1st district is located in eastern Nebraska surrounding Omaha and its suburbs, taking in Lincoln, Bellevue, Fremont, and Norfolk. The incumbent was Republican Jeff Fortenberry, who was re-elected with 60.4% of the vote in 2018. [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
Declined
  • Nicholas Oviatt, part-time consultant [3]

Results

Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Fortenberry (incumbent) 84,017 100.0
Total votes84,017 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Endorsements
Kate Bolz

Newspapers

Organizations

Barbara "Babs" Ramsey

Organizations

  • DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare [13]
  • Freethought Equality Fund PAC [14]
  • Nebraska Secular Democrats [15]
  • Progressive Rising [16]
  • Rose Caucus [17]
  • Vote Pro Choice [18]

Results

Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kate Bolz 43,400 77.6
Democratic Barbara Ramsey12,49722.4
Total votes55,897 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Libertarian primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Dennis B. Grace 1,047 100.0
Total votes1,047 100.0

General election

Debate

2020 Nebraska's 1st congressional district debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Jeff Fortenberry Kate Bolz
1Oct. 14, 2020 Nebraska Public Media Dennis Kellogg [20] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [21] Safe RJuly 2, 2020
Inside Elections [22] Safe RJune 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Safe RJuly 2, 2020
Politico [24] Likely RSeptember 9, 2020
Daily Kos [25] Safe RJune 3, 2020
RCP [26] Safe RJune 9, 2020
Niskanen [27] Safe RJune 7, 2020

Results

Nebraska's 1st congressional district, 2020 [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Jeff Fortenberry (incumbent) 189,006 59.5
Democratic Kate Bolz 119,62237.7
Libertarian Dennis B. Grace8,9382.8
Total votes317,566 100.0
Republican hold

District 2

2020 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district election
Flag of Nebraska.svg
  2018
2022  
  Don Bacon portrait (116th Congress).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Don Bacon Kara Eastman
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote171,071155,706
Percentage50.8%46.2%

NE 2nd 2020.svg
Bacon:     60–70%
Eastman:     40–50%

U.S. Representative before election

Don Bacon
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Don Bacon
Republican

The 2nd district covers the Omaha metropolitan area, including all of Douglas County, home to the city of Omaha, and suburban parts of western Sarpy County, including La Vista and Papillon. The incumbent was Republican Don Bacon, who was re-elected with 51.0% of the vote in 2018. [1]

Kara Eastman was the Democratic nominee. [29] She started a nonprofit consulting company in 2019, and was previously the executive director of the Omaha Healthy Kids Alliance. [30] That organization focuses on reducing lead poisoning, and Lee Terry described it as a nonpartisan project. [31] She is a former member of the Board of Governors of Metropolitan Community College. [32]

President Donald Trump endorsed Bacon, and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden endorsed Eastman. [33]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Paul Anderson, perennial candidate [34]
  • Don Bacon, incumbent U.S. representative [35]

Results

Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Don Bacon (incumbent) 68,531 90.6
Republican Paul Anderson7,1069.4
Total votes75,637 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared
Withdrew
  • Morgann Freeman, part-time communications consultant and activist [39] (endorsed Ashford)
  • Dustin Sedoris, U.S. Marine Corps veteran [40] (endorsed Eastman) [41]
Declined

Endorsements

Ann Ashford

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State officials

Individuals

Organizations

  • LEAP Forward Project [52]
Kara Eastman

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Parties

  • Cannabis Rights Party of Nebraska [64]

Results

Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kara Eastman 45,953 62.1
Democratic Ann Ashford23,05931.2
Democratic Gladys Harrison4,9206.7
Total votes73,932 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Tyler Schaeffer [65]

Results

Libertarian primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Tyler Schaeffer 964 100.0
Total votes964 100.0

General election

Debate

2020 Nebraska's 2nd congressional district debate
No.DateHostModeratorLink Republican Democratic
Key:
 P Participant  A Absent  N Not invited  I Invited  W  Withdrawn
Don Bacon Kara Eastman
1Oct. 12, 2020 Nebraska Public Media Dennis Kellogg [66] PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [67] TossupJuly 16, 2020
Inside Elections [68] Tilt D (flip)October 28, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Lean RNovember 2, 2020
Politico [24] TossupSeptember 9, 2020
Daily Kos [25] Lean RJune 3, 2020
RCP [26] TossupJune 9, 2020
Niskanen [27] TossupJune 7, 2020

Polling

Graphical summary

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Don
Bacon (R)
Kara
Eastman (D)
Tyler
Schaeffer (L)
OtherUndecided
UNLV Lee Business School [69] October 30 – November 2, 2020191 (LV)± 7%47%46%
Change Research [70] October 29 – November 2, 2020920 (LV)± 3.5%47%48%2%0% [lower-alpha 2] 2%
Emerson College [71] October 29–30, 2020806 (LV)± 3.5%50% [lower-alpha 3] 47%2%
FM3 Research (D) [72] [upper-alpha 1] October 1–4, 2020450 (LV)± 4.6%45%47%6%
Siena College/NYT Upshot [73] September 25–27, 2020420 (LV)± 5.3%45%43%3%1% [lower-alpha 4] 8% [lower-alpha 5]
Global Strategy Group (D) [74] [upper-alpha 2] September 14–16, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%45%45%4%7% [lower-alpha 5]
Global Strategy Group (D) [75] [upper-alpha 2] July 27–29, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%47%42%4%7% [lower-alpha 5]
GQR Research (D) [76] [upper-alpha 3] June 30 – July 5, 2020502 (LV)± 4.37%49%50%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department (D) [77] [upper-alpha 4] May 7–10, 2020448 (LV)± 4.6%47%48%
GQR Research (D) [78] [upper-alpha 3] September 9–12, 2019400 (LV)± 4.9%50%49%
Hypothetical polling

with Ann Ashford

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Don
Bacon (R)
Ann
Ashford (D)
Undecided
GQR Research (D) [78] September 9–12, 2019400 (LV)± 4.9%53%46%

with Gladys Harrison

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Don
Bacon (R)
Gladys
Harrison (D)
Undecided
GQR Research (D) [78] September 9–12, 2019400 (LV)± 4.9%55%44%

Endorsements

Don Bacon (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials

Organizations

Individuals

Kara Eastman (D)

Former US Executive Branch officials

Federal officials

State officials

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Results

Despite Democratic Presidential Nominee Joe Biden winning the district by 6.5 points, Bacon defeated Eastman by 4.6 points. Eastman underperformed Biden by over 11 points. [115]

Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, 2020 [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Don Bacon (incumbent) 171,071 50.8
Democratic Kara Eastman155,70646.2
Libertarian Tyler Schaeffer10,1853.0
Total votes336,962 100.0
Republican hold

By county

County Don Bacon
Republican
Kara Eastman
Democratic
Tyler Schaeffer
Libertarian
Total
votes
 %# %# %#
Douglas 48.20%132,23048.79%133,8273.01%8,252274,309
Sarpy 61.99%38,84134.92%21,8793.09%1,93362,653

District 3

2020 Nebraska's 3rd congressional district election
Flag of Nebraska.svg
  2018
2022  
  Adrian Smith portrait (116th Congress).jpg Mark Elworth.jpg
Nominee Adrian Smith Mark Elworth Jr.
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote225,15750,690
Percentage78.5%17.7%

NE 3rd 2020.svg
Smith:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%

U.S. Representative before election

Adrian Smith
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Adrian Smith
Republican

The 3rd district covers most of the rural western part of the state, and includes Grand Island, Kearney, Hastings, North Platte, Alliance, and Scottsbluff. The incumbent was Republican Adrian Smith, who was re-elected with 76.7% of the vote in 2018. [1]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Larry Lee Scott Bolinger, [116] veteran, graduate from UNO, business owner in property preservation, author of 16 books, and self-defense instructor [2]
  • William Elfgren, grocery worker [2] [117]
  • Arron Kowalski, farmer [2]
  • Justin Moran, architectural draftsman, firefighter and welder [2]
  • Adrian Smith, incumbent U.S. representative [118]

Results

Republican primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Adrian Smith (incumbent) 96,260 82.6
Republican Arron Kowalski6,4245.5
Republican Justin Moran6,3745.5
Republican William Elfgren4,0633.5
Republican Larry Lee Scott Bolinger3,3892.9
Total votes116,510 100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Democratic primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mark Elworth, Jr. 26,772 100.0
Total votes26,776 100.0

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared
  • Dustin C. Hobbs, reality television show participant [2] [120]

Results

Libertarian primary results [4]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Libertarian Dustin C. Hobbs 561 100.0
Total votes561 100.0

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [21] Safe RJuly 2, 2020
Inside Elections [22] Safe RJune 2, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [23] Safe RJuly 2, 2020
Politico [24] Safe RSeptember 9, 2020
Daily Kos [25] Safe RJune 3, 2020
RCP [26] Safe RJune 9, 2020
Niskanen [27] Safe RJune 7, 2020

Results

Nebraska's 3rd congressional district, 2020 [28]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Adrian Smith (incumbent) 225,157 78.5
Democratic Mark Elworth Jr. 50,69017.7
Libertarian Dustin C. Hobbs10,9233.8
Total votes286,770 100.0
Republican hold

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Did not vote and "Don't recall" with 0%
  3. With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  4. Would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%
  5. 1 2 3 Includes "Refused"

Partisan clients

  1. Poll sponsored by The Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC exclusively supports Democratic candidates.
  2. 1 2 Poll conducted for the House Majority PAC.
  3. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Eastman's campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by the DCCC.

Related Research Articles

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  97. Bernie Sanders [@BernieSanders] (September 16, 2020). "@karaforcongress is facing the same incumbent Republican she came within just 1.9% of defeating two years ago while running on a strong progressive platform that prioritizes the needs of working people in Omaha and beyond. Let's make sure Kara is elected to Congress this year" (Tweet) via Twitter.
  98. Eastman, Kara [@_karaeastman] (May 16, 2020). "Thank you to Nebraska State Senator @katejbolz for this endorsement and CONGRATULATIONS Kate on your primary win the other night! Like myself, Senator Bolz is running for Congress against a LOYAL Trump supporter. If I were @JeffFortenberry, I'd be scared. :) #DemocraticUnity https://t.co/KmpXmIhGZE" (Tweet). Retrieved January 6, 2021 via Twitter.
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Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

Official campaign websites for 3rd district candidates