2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

Last updated

2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana, at-large district
Flag of Montana.svg
  2018 November 3, 2020 2022  
  Matt Rosendale 117th U.S Congress (cropped).jpg Kathleen williamssd mt (cropped).png
Nominee Matt Rosendale Kathleen Williams
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote339,169262,340
Percentage56.39%43.61%

Montana's at-large congressional district election, 2020 results by county.svg
MT House 2020.svg
Rosendale:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Williams:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%     No data

U.S. Representative before election

Greg Gianforte
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Matt Rosendale
Republican

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections.

Contents

The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018, [1] declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock. [2]

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana. [3]

In the general election, Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams.

As of a result of the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained its 2nd congressional district that it lost in 1993, therefore making the 2020 election the last election for the at-large district before it was eliminated.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale
Executive officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Russell
Fagg
Joe
Dooling
Timothy
Johnson
Al
Olszewski
Denny
Rehberg
Matt
Rosendale
Corey
Stapleton
Undecided
Montana State University Billings Archived October 25, 2019, at the Wayback Machine October 7–16, 201999 (LV)1%<1%32%22%44%
WPA Intelligence (R) Archived March 1, 2019, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 1] February 24–26, 2019501 (V)± 4.4%24%57%15%
39%46%13%
18%10%51%18%
15%31%37%16%
17%48%19%16%

Results

Republican primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Matt Rosendale 104,575 48.31%
Republican Corey Stapleton 71,90233.21%
Republican Debra Lamm 14,4626.68%
Republican Joe Dooling13,7266.34%
Republican Mark McGinley7,8183.61%
Republican John Evankovich3,9831.84%
Total votes216,466 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams) [19]

Declined

Endorsements

Kathleen Williams
State politicians
Local politicians
Individuals
  • Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district [19]
Local unions
Organizations
Tom Winter
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rains
Kathleen
Williams
Undecided
Montana State University Billings Archived October 25, 2019, at the Wayback Machine October 7–16, 201940 (LV)6%69%25%

Results

Democratic primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kathleen Williams 133,436 89.47%
Democratic Tom Winter 15,69810.53%
Total votes149,134 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Disqualified

  • John Gibney, anti-immigration activist [32] [33]

Results

Green primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green John Gibney 690 100.0%
Total votes690 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [34] Lean ROctober 2, 2020
Inside Elections [35] Lean ROctober 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [36] Lean ROctober 1, 2020
Politico [37] Lean RSeptember 9, 2020
Daily Kos [38] Lean RSeptember 25, 2020
RCP [39] TossupOctober 26, 2020
Niskanen [40] Lean RJuly 26, 2020
The Economist [41] TossupOctober 2, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020546 (LV)± 4.2%47%46%6% [lower-alpha 2]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020758 (LV)± 4.4%50%46%4% [lower-alpha 3]
Strategies 360 October 15–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%46%46%9% [lower-alpha 4]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived October 26, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47% [lower-alpha 5] 47%6% [lower-alpha 6]
45% [lower-alpha 7] 49%6% [lower-alpha 8]
49% [lower-alpha 9] 45%6% [lower-alpha 10]
Montana State University Bozeman Archived October 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine September 14 – October 2, 20201,609 (LV)± 3.9%48%46%6% [lower-alpha 11]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%41%44%13% [lower-alpha 12]
Expedition Strategies (D) Archived September 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 2] August 22–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%51%1% [lower-alpha 13]
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 1] August 9–11, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%51%45%4% [lower-alpha 14]
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020873 (RV)± 4.2%49%47%5% [lower-alpha 15]
Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 20201,224 (V)± 2.8%44%44%13% [lower-alpha 16]
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 3] June 24–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%47%47%6%
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020517 (RV)± 4.3%45%37%18% [lower-alpha 17]
Public Policy Polling [upper-alpha 4] March 12–13, 2020903 (V)± 3.3%45%45%9%
Hypothetical polling

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020498 (LV)± 4.4%35.7%19.4%35.8%9.1% [lower-alpha 18]
with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 1]
Margin
of error
Matt
Rosendale (R)
Corey
Stapleton (R)
Kathleen
Williams (D)
Other
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019303 (RV)± 5.6%35.3%19.8%36.1%8.8% [lower-alpha 19]

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2020 [42]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Matt Rosendale 339,169 56.39% +5.51%
Democratic Kathleen Williams 262,34043.61%-2.64%
Total votes601,509 100.00%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. Undecided with 6%
  3. Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  4. Undecided with 9%
  5. Standard VI response
  6. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  7. Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  8. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  9. Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  10. "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  11. "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  12. Gibney (G) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  13. Undecided with 1%
  14. Undecided with 4%
  15. Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  16. Undecided with 13%
  17. Undecided with 18.4%
  18. Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
  19. Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  2. Poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, which endorsed Williams prior to this poll's sampling period.
  3. Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
  4. Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greg Gianforte</span> Governor of Montana (born 1961)

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References

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  11. Trump, Donald J. [@realDonaldTrump] (February 12, 2020). ".@MattForMontana Rosendale is a Strong & Conservative fighter for Montana. Matt stands w/ our Brave Veterans, Loves our Military, and he will continue working to Secure our Border. Matt will NEVER let our #2A go unprotected. Matt has my Total Endorsement!" (Tweet). Retrieved November 23, 2022 via Twitter.
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  25. Marianne Williamson [@marwilliamson] (May 17, 2020). "If we want a more visionary government we need to support more visionary candidates. And the time to do it is now....https://secure.actblue.com/donate/marianneendorses" (Tweet). Retrieved May 17, 2020 via Twitter.
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  29. Our Revolution (April 30, 2020). "We are so proud to endorse #ProgressiveChampion Tom Winter as he will fight for a #GreenNewDeal and better rights for working people. #PoliticalRevolution" . Retrieved May 21, 2020 via Facebook.
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Official campaign websites