2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana

Last updated

2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana, at-large district
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Nominee Matt Rosendale Kathleen Williams
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote339,169262,340
Percentage56.4%43.6%
Montana's at-large congressional district election, 2020 results by county.svg
MT House 2020.svg
Rosendale:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Williams:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:     50%
     No data
U.S. Representative before election

Greg Gianforte
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Matt Rosendale
Republican

The 2020 United States House of Representatives election in Montana was held on November 3, 2020, to elect the U.S. representative from Montana's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections.

Contents

The incumbent, Republican Greg Gianforte, who was reelected with 50.9% of the vote in 2018, [1] declined to run for reelection and instead ran successfully for Governor of Montana, after having lost the 2016 election to incumbent Democrat Steve Bullock. [2]

As the Green Party was removed from the ballot, this was the first time since 1988 that there were no non-Republican or Democratic candidates running for either United States House of Representatives or United States Senate in Montana. [3]

In the general election, Republican state auditor Matt Rosendale defeated former state representative Kathleen Williams.

As of a result of the 2020 redistricting cycle, Montana regained its 2nd congressional district that it lost in 1993, therefore making the 2020 election the last election for the at-large district before it was eliminated.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Declined

Endorsements

Matt Rosendale
Executive Officials
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Russell
Fagg		Joe
Dooling		Timothy
Johnson		Al
Olszewski		Denny
Rehberg		Matt
Rosendale		Corey
Stapleton		Undecided
Montana State University Billings Archived October 25, 2019, at the Wayback Machine October 7–16, 201999 (LV)––1%<1%––32%22%44%
WPA Intelligence (R) Archived March 1, 2019, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 1] February 24–26, 2019501 (V)± 4.4%24%––––57%–15%
––39%46%–13%
18%10%–51%–18%
15%–31%37%–16%
17%––48%19%16%

Results

Republican primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Matt Rosendale 104,575 48.31%
Republican Corey Stapleton 71,90233.21%
Republican Debra Lamm 14,4626.68%
Republican Joe Dooling13,7266.34%
Republican Mark McGinley7,8183.61%
Republican John Evankovich3,9831.84%
Total votes216,466 100.0%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

  • Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran (endorsed Williams) [19]

Declined

Endorsements

Kathleen Williams
State politicians
Local politicians
Individuals
  • Matt Rains, rancher and army veteran and former 2020 candidate for U.S. House of Representatives from Montana's at-large district [19]
Local unions
Organizations
Tom Winter
Individuals
Organizations

Polling

Polls with a sample size of <100 have their sample size entries marked in red to indicate a lack of reliability.

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Matt
Rains		Kathleen
Williams		Undecided
Montana State University Billings Archived October 25, 2019, at the Wayback Machine October 7–16, 201940 (LV)–6%69%25%

Results

Democratic primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Kathleen Williams 133,436 89.47%
Democratic Tom Winter 15,69810.53%
Total votes149,134 100.0%

Other candidates

Green Party

Disqualified

  • John Gibney, anti-immigration activist [32] [33]

Results

Green primary results [16]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Green John Gibney 690 100.0%
Total votes690 100.0%

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [34] Lean ROctober 2, 2020
Inside Elections [35] Lean ROctober 1, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball [36] Lean ROctober 1, 2020
Politico [37] Lean RSeptember 9, 2020
Daily Kos [38] Lean RSeptember 25, 2020
RCP [39] TossupOctober 26, 2020
Niskanen [40] Lean RJuly 26, 2020
The Economist [41] TossupOctober 2, 2020

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Matt
Rosendale (R)		Kathleen
Williams (D)		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University Billings October 19–24, 2020546 (LV)± 4.2%47%46%6% [lower-alpha 2]
Siena College/NYT Upshot October 18–20, 2020758 (LV)± 4.4%50%46%4% [lower-alpha 3]
Strategies 360 October 15–20, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%46%46%9% [lower-alpha 4]
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived October 26, 2020, at the Wayback Machine October 15–18, 2020800 (LV)± 3.5%47% [lower-alpha 5] 47%6% [lower-alpha 6]
45% [lower-alpha 7] 49%6% [lower-alpha 8]
49% [lower-alpha 9] 45%6% [lower-alpha 10]
Montana State University Bozeman Archived October 19, 2020, at the Wayback Machine September 14 – October 2, 20201,609 (LV)± 3.9%48%46%6% [lower-alpha 11]
Siena College/NYT Upshot September 14–16, 2020625 (LV)± 4.8%41%44%13% [lower-alpha 12]
Expedition Strategies (D) Archived September 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine [upper-alpha 2] August 22–27, 2020400 (LV)± 4.9%48%51%1% [lower-alpha 13]
WPA Intelligence (R) [upper-alpha 1] August 9–11, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%51%45%4% [lower-alpha 14]
Civiqs/Daily Kos July 11–13, 2020873 (RV)± 4.2%49%47%5% [lower-alpha 15]
Public Policy Polling July 9–10, 20201,224 (V)± 2.8%44%44%13% [lower-alpha 16]
Global Strategy Group (D) [upper-alpha 3] June 24–28, 2020500 (LV)± 4.4%47%47%6%
University of Montana June 17–26, 2020517 (RV)± 4.3%45%37%18% [lower-alpha 17]
Public Policy Polling [upper-alpha 4] March 12–13, 2020903 (V)± 3.3%45%45%9%
Hypothetical polling

University of Montana polls did not account for certain presumed withdrawals of major party candidates after their primaries in the following polls.

with Joe Dooling (R), John Evankovich (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Matt
Rosendale (R)		Corey
Stapleton (R)		Kathleen
Williams (D)		Other
University of Montana February 12–22, 2020498 (LV)± 4.4%35.7%19.4%35.8%9.1% [lower-alpha 18]
with Joe Dooling (R), Timothy Johnson (R), Matt Rains (D), Corey Stapleton (R) and Tom Winter (D)
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 1] 		Margin
of error		Matt
Rosendale (R)		Corey
Stapleton (R)		Kathleen
Williams (D)		Other
University of Montana September 26 – October 3, 2019303 (RV)± 5.6%35.3%19.8%36.1%8.8% [lower-alpha 19]

Results

Montana's at-large congressional district, 2020 [42]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Matt Rosendale 339,169 56.39% +5.51%
Democratic Kathleen Williams 262,34043.61%-2.64%
Total votes601,509 100.00%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Undecided with 6%
  3. ↑ Would not vote with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%; Undecided with 3%
  4. ↑ Undecided with 9%
  5. ↑ Standard VI response
  6. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  7. ↑ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
  8. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  9. ↑ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
  10. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Undecided with 4%
  11. ↑ "Other" with 1%; Undecided with 5%
  12. ↑ Gibney (G) with 2%; would not vote with 1%; "someone else" with 0%; "Undecided/Refused" with 10%
  13. ↑ Undecided with 1%
  14. ↑ Undecided with 4%
  15. ↑ Undecided with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  16. ↑ Undecided with 13%
  17. ↑ Undecided with 18.4%
  18. ↑ Dooling (R) with 2.9%; Winter (D) with 2.7%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%; Evankovich (R) with 1.7%
  19. ↑ Dooling (R) with 2.5%; Rains (D) with 2.4%; Winter (D) with 2.1%; Johnson (R) with 1.8%
Partisan clients
  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by Club for Growth Action
  2. ↑ Poll conducted for The House Majority PAC, which endorsed Williams prior to this poll's sampling period.
  3. ↑ Poll sponsored by Kathleen Williams' campaign
  4. ↑ Poll sponsored by End Citizens United, which has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

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References

  1. ↑ Wasserman, David; Flinn, Ally (November 7, 2018). "2018 House Popular Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  2. 1 2 Michels, Holly K. (June 6, 2019). "Gianforte files to run for governor in 2020". Independent Record. Retrieved June 7, 2019.
  3. ↑ "No Alternative Candidates on Montana Ballot for Any Congressional Race". Ballot Access News . September 13, 2020. Archived from the original on September 13, 2020. Retrieved September 13, 2020.
  4. ↑ Pathé, Simone (June 17, 2019). "On heels of Senate loss, Matt Rosendale running for Congress — again". Roll Call. Retrieved June 17, 2019.
  5. ↑ Alexander, Cassidy (June 25, 2019). "Helena Rancher Joins Race For Montana's House Seat". MTPR. Retrieved June 26, 2019.
  6. 1 2 Dennison, Mike (March 2, 2020). "Dillon veteran a surprise candidate in U.S. House race". KTVH.
  7. ↑ Drake, Phil. "Lamm enters 2020 race for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 9, 2019.
  8. ↑ Drake, Phil (June 15, 2019). "Stapleton announces run for U.S. House seat". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved June 15, 2019.
  9. ↑ Dennison, Mike (March 20, 2019). "Montana 2020: Gianforte gubernatorial run would have 'domino effect' on statewide races". KRTV. Retrieved March 21, 2019.
  10. ↑ Pogreba, Don (January 9, 2019). "2020 Updates: Daines Tells Tim Fox to Shove Off, He's Supporting Gianforte for Governor. And Denny Rehberg is Eyeing a Comeback!". The Montana Post. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved February 28, 2019.
  11. ↑ Trump, Donald J. [@realDonaldTrump] (February 12, 2020). ".@MattForMontana Rosendale is a Strong & Conservative fighter for Montana. Matt stands w/ our Brave Veterans, Loves our Military, and he will continue working to Secure our Border. Matt will NEVER let our #2A go unprotected. Matt has my Total Endorsement!" (Tweet). Retrieved November 23, 2022– via Twitter.
  12. ↑ Trump, Donald Jr. "Montana's A-Team: Daines, Rosendale, Gianforte". missoulian.com. Retrieved December 22, 2019.
  13. ↑ "Mark Levin Audio Rewind - 10/12/20". Apple Podcasts. Retrieved October 12, 2020.
  14. ↑ "Matt Rosendale (MT-AL)". Club for Growth. Retrieved February 29, 2020.
  15. ↑ "Crow Tribal Chairman endorses Trump campaign". Ict News. September 15, 2020. Retrieved September 29, 2020.
  16. 1 2 3 "2020 STATEWIDE PRIMARY ELECTION CANVASS" (PDF). Montana Secretary of State . Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  17. ↑ "Williams launches new bid for Montana US House seat". KECI. Associated Press. April 5, 2019. Retrieved April 5, 2019.
  18. ↑ Michels, Holly K. (April 2, 2019). "Missoula state Rep. Tom Winter announces bid for U.S. House". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved April 2, 2019.
  19. 1 2 Drake, Phil (January 21, 2020). "Rains drops from U.S. House race, seeks state seat, endorses Kathleen Williams". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved January 21, 2020.
  20. ↑ Hanson, Amy Beth (May 13, 2019). "Mayor who was refugee from Liberia announces run for Senate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 13, 2019.
  21. ↑ "Thank you, @AFSCME Montana Council 9!". Twitter. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 9, 2020.
  22. ↑ "Teamsters Local 190 Endorse Kathleen Williams for U.S. Congress". MT People's Voice. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  23. ↑ "MFPE Endorses Kathleen Williams For Congress". MFPE. April 21, 2020. Retrieved April 7, 2020.
  24. ↑ Dems, New (July 31, 2020). "ENDORSEMENT ALERT: A year ago, we launched our Frontier program to back bold, pragmatic Democrats who can flip even more seats blue. #NewDems have played a key part in expanding the House battlefield & now we're doubling down & supporting 10 more amazing candidates".
  25. ↑ Marianne Williamson [@marwilliamson] (May 17, 2020). "If we want a more visionary government we need to support more visionary candidates. And the time to do it is now....secure.actblue.com/donate/marianneendorses" (Tweet). Retrieved May 17, 2020– via Twitter.
  26. ↑ "Getting Shit Done For the People". Blue America. April 5, 2020. Retrieved April 8, 2020.
  27. ↑ "2020 Endorsed House Candidates". DUH! Demand Universal Healthcare. Archived from the original on May 2, 2020. Retrieved March 19, 2020.
  28. ↑ MT Progressive Dems (May 17, 2020). "Montana Progressive Democrats are proud to endorse @WinterForMT for U.S. Representative" . Retrieved May 21, 2020– via Twitter.
  29. ↑ Our Revolution (April 30, 2020). "We are so proud to endorse #ProgressiveChampion Tom Winter as he will fight for a #GreenNewDeal and better rights for working people. #PoliticalRevolution" . Retrieved May 21, 2020– via Facebook.
  30. ↑ "Endorsements". Progressive Rising. July 8, 2019. Retrieved April 6, 2020.
  31. ↑ "We are endorsing Tom Winter for Congress because he is a Green New Deal champion". April 30, 2020. Archived from the original on December 26, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2020– via Instagram.
  32. ↑ Michels, Holly (March 9, 2020). "Filing deadline for Montana ballot sees last-minute surprises". Helena Independent Record.
  33. ↑ Michels, Holly (August 7, 2020). "Helena judge again takes Green Party off the ballot". Helena Independent Record. Retrieved August 7, 2020.
  34. ↑ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for April 19, 2019". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2019.
  35. ↑ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 3, 2019.
  36. ↑ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on August 22, 2019. Retrieved August 28, 2019.
  37. ↑ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  38. ↑ "Daily Kos Elections releases initial Senate race ratings for 2020". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved February 28, 2020.
  39. ↑ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  40. ↑ "2020 Negative Partisanship and the 2020 Congressional Elections". Niskanen Center. April 28, 2020. Archived from the original on June 21, 2020. Retrieved May 1, 2020.
  41. ↑ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. October 2, 2020. Retrieved October 2, 2020.
  42. ↑ "Montana Federal Election Results". Montana Secretary of State. November 3, 2020. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
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