2012 Montana gubernatorial election

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2012 Montana gubernatorial election
Flag of Montana.svg
  2008 November 6, 2012 (2012-11-06) 2016  
Turnout72.18%Decrease2.svg2.32 [1]
  Steve Bullock.jpg RickHill2 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Steve Bullock Rick Hill
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate John Walsh Jon Sonju
Popular vote236,450228,879
Percentage48.90%47.34%

2012 Montana gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results
Bullock:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Hill:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

Governor before election

Brian Schweitzer
Democratic

Elected Governor

Steve Bullock
Democratic

The 2012 Montana gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012, to elect the Governor of Montana. Incumbent Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a third term.

Contents

Montana Attorney General Steve Bullock won the Democratic primary with 87% of the vote and former U.S. Representative Rick Hill won the Republican primary with 34% of the vote. In the general election, Bullock won by 7,571 votes, taking 48.9% of the vote to Hill's 47.3%. [2] With a margin of 1.6%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2012 gubernatorial election cycle, behind only the election in Puerto Rico. Due to the close margin, media outlets did not call the race for Bullock until the next day. [3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Heather Margolis, Montana representative for community service organization ServeNext

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock
Larry
Jent
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011573± 4.1%70%6%24%

Results

Democratic primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Steve Bullock 76,738 86.6
Democratic Heather Margolis11,82313.4
Total votes88,561 100.0

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

  • Bob Fanning, retired businessman [12]
  • Jim Lynch, former Montana Department of Transportation director [19]

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeff
Essmann
Bob
Fanning
Rick
Hill
Neil
Livingstone
Jim
Lynch
Ken
Miller
Jim
O'Hara
Corey
Stapleton
Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012403± 4.88%1%33%5%4%12%4%7%35%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 2011700± 3.7%5%1%37%3%4%10%3%2%35%

Results

Primary results by county:
Hill
.mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{}
Hill--51-60%
Hill--41-50%
Hill--31-40%
Hill--21-30%
Stapleton
Stapleton--31-40%
Stapleton--21-30%
Miller
Miller--51-60%
Miller--41-50%
Miller--31-40%
Miller--21-30%
O'Hara
O'Hara--51-60%
O'Hara--31-40% 2012 Montana gubernatorial Republican primary county map.svg
Primary results by county:
Hill
  •   Hill—51-60%
  •   Hill—41-50%
  •   Hill—31-40%
  •   Hill—21-30%
Stapleton
  •   Stapleton—31-40%
  •   Stapleton—21-30%
Miller
  •   Miller—51-60%
  •   Miller—41-50%
  •   Miller—31-40%
  •   Miller—21-30%
O'Hara
  •   O'Hara—51-60%
  •   O'Hara—31-40%
Republican primary results [11]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Hill 46,802 34.4
Republican Corey Stapleton24,66118.1
Republican Ken Miller24,49618.0
Republican Jim O'Hara16,65312.2
Republican Neil Livingstone12,0388.8
Republican Jim Lynch8,3236.1
Republican Bob Fanning3,0872.3
Total votes136,060 100.0

General election

Candidates

  • Running mate: John Walsh, Brigadier general and former adjutant general in the Montana National Guard
  • Running mate: Marc Mulcahy [13]

Debate

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [32] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [33] Lean R (flip)November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [34] TossupNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [35] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Steve
Bullock (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
Other/Undecided
[lower-alpha 1]
Margin
Real Clear Politics September 27 – November 3, 2012November 3, 201244.0%45.7%10.3%Hill +1.7%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 2–3, 2012836± 3.4%48%48%2%2%
Mason-Dixon October 29–31, 2012625± 4.0%46%49%2%3%
Public Policy Polling October 8–10, 2012737± 3.6%42%43%8%7%
Montana State University September 27–30, 2012477± 4.6%38%40%2%20%
Mason-Dixon September 17–19, 2012625± 4.0%44%43%2%11%
Public Policy Polling September 10–11, 2012656± 3.2%44%39%8%9%
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%39%39%21%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%38%39%23%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%37%39%23%
Public Policy Polling November 10–13, 20101,176± 2.9%31%41%28%
Hypothetical polling

With Bohlinger

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Jeff
Essmann (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%40%33%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%39%40%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
John
Bohlinger (D)
Ken
Miller (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%39%33%28%

With Bullock

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Jeff
Essmann (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%42%30%28%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%38%33%28%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Neil
Livingstone (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%41%29%30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Steve
Bullock (D)
Ken
Miller (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling April 26–29, 2012934± 3.2%41%35%24%
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%40%31%29%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%38%34%28%

With Jent

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Larry
Jent (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%26%39%35%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Larry
Jent (D)
Neil
Livingstone (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%26%30%44%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Larry
Jent (D)
Ken
Miller (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling November 28–30, 20111,625± 2.4%25%33%42%

With Wanzenried

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Wanzenried (D)
Jeff
Essmann (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%31%33%36%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Wanzenried (D)
Rick
Hill (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%30%40%30%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Dave
Wanzenried (D)
Ken
Miller (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011819± 3.4%30%35%35%

Results

2012 Montana gubernatorial election [36]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Steve Bullock 236,450 48.90% -16.57%
Republican Rick Hill 228,87947.34%+14.82%
Libertarian Ron Vandevender18,1603.76%+1.75%
Total votes483,489 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Notes

  1. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

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  28. [ dead link ]
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Official campaign websites (Archived)