2012 Washington gubernatorial election

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2012 Washington gubernatorial election
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  Jay Inslee Official Photo (cropped).jpg Rob McKenna; Washington AG (cropped).jpg
Nominee Jay Inslee Rob McKenna
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote1,582,8021,488,245
Percentage51.4%48.3%
2012 Washington gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
2012 Washington gubernatorial election by Congressional District.svg
WA Governor 2012.svg
Inslee:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
McKenna:      50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%     >90%
Tie:      50%     No votes
Governor before election

Christine Gregoire
Democratic

Elected Governor

Jay Inslee
Democratic

The 2012 Washington gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2012. [1] Candidates in the election were chosen in an August 7, 2012 [2] primary election, under the state's nonpartisan blanket primary system, which allows voters to vote for any candidate running in the race, regardless of party affiliation. The two candidates who received the most votes in the primary election qualified for the general election. [3]

Contents

Incumbent Governor Christine Gregoire decided to retire rather than seek a third term. [4] She endorsed fellow Democrat Jay Inslee, a U.S. Congressman, as her successor. On March 20, 2012, Inslee resigned from Congress in order to focus on his gubernatorial campaign. [5]

Inslee and Republican Rob McKenna, the Attorney General of Washington, advanced to the general election. Inslee narrowly won the election, and McKenna conceded three days later. [6]

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Declined

Republican candidates

Declined

Independent candidates

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [a] 		Margin
of error		Rob
McKenna (R)		Jay
Inslee (D)		Lisa
Brown (D)		Dow
Constantine (D)		Clint
Didier (R)		Bill
Bryant (R)		Brian
Sonntag (D)		Aaron
Reardon (D)		Undecided
Chism Strategies [19] June 28–30, 2011408 (LV)± 5.0%20%17%3%3%3%2%2%1%49%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Inslee--40-50% Inslee--50-60% McKenna--40-50% McKenna--50-60% McKenna--60-70% 2012WAGOVprimary.svg
Results by county:
  Inslee—40–50%
  Inslee—50–60%
  McKenna—40–50%
  McKenna—50–60%
  McKenna—60–70%
Blanket primary results [20]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jay Inslee 664,534 47.13%
Republican Rob McKenna 604,872 42.90%
Republican Shahram Hadian46,1693.27%
Democratic Rob Hill45,4533.22%
Independent James White13,7640.98%
Independent Christian Joubert10,4570.74%
Independent L. Dale Sorgen9,7340.69%
Republican Max Sampson8,7530.62%
Republican Javier O. Lopez6,1310.43%
Total votes1,409,867 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [21] TossupNovember 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [22] Lean DNovember 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [23] Tilt DNovember 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [24] TossupNovember 5, 2012

Endorsements

Jay Inslee (D)

U.S Presidents

Newspapers

Polling

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation		Dates
administered		Dates
updated		Jay
Inslee (D)		Rob
McKenna (R)		Other/Undecided
[b] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics [29] October 14 – November 3, 2012November 3, 201247.3%46.3%6.4%Inslee +1.0%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Rob
McKenna (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [30] November 1–3, 2012932± 3.2%50%48%2%
KING5/SurveyUSA [31] October 28–31, 2012555± 4.2%47%46%7%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll [32] October 18–31, 2012632± 3.9%49%46%6%
Elway Poll [33] October 18–21, 2012451± 4.5%45%47%10%
Strategies360 [34] October 17–20, 2012500± 4.4%45%45%10%
Public Policy Polling/WCV [35] October 15–16, 2012574± n/a%48%42%10%
KCTS 9/Washington Poll [36] October 1–16, 2012782± 3.5%48%45%8%
Rasmussen Reports [37] October 14, 2012500± 4.5%47%45%9%
SurveyUSA [38] October 12–14, 2012543± 4.3%47%44%9%
SurveyUSA [39] September 28–30, 2012540± 4.3%48%42%10%
Rasmussen Reports [40] September 26, 2012500± 4.5%46%45%9%
Public Elway Poll [41] September 9–12, 2012405± 5%44%41%15%
Public Policy Polling [42] September 7–9, 2012563± 4.2%48%42%10%
Survey USA [43] September 7–9, 2012524± 4.4%49%44%7%
Survey USA [44] August 2–3, 2012524± 4.4%48%45%7%
Elway Poll [45] July 18–22, 2012405± 5.0%43%36%21%
Survey USA [46] July 16–17, 2012630± 4.0%41%42%16%
Public Policy Polling [47] June 14–17, 20121,073± 3.0%40%43%17%
Elway Poll [48] June 13–16, 2012408± 5.0%40%42%18%
Strategies360 [49] May 22–24, 2012500± 4.4%39%43%18%
Survey USA [50] May 8–9, 2012557± 4.2%38%40%22%
Grove Insights (D) [51] [A] March 26–28, 2012500± 4.4%38%34%28%
Grove Insights (D) [52] [A] February 21–23, 2012500± 4.4%38%38%24%
Public Policy Polling [53] February 16–19, 20121,264± 2.8%42%42%16%
Survey USA [54] February 13–15, 2012572± 4.2%39%49%12%
Elway Poll [55] February 7–9, 2012405± 5.0%36%45%19%
Survey USA [56] January 12–16, 2012617± 4.0%43%46%11%
Survey USA [57] November 21–23, 2011549± 4.3%38%44%17%
Washington Poll [58] October 10–30, 2011938± 3.2%38%44%18%
Survey USA [59] September 21–22, 2011529± 4.3%38%44%18%
Survey USA [60] June 24–26, 2011600± 4.4%47%44%9%
Public Policy Polling [61] May 12–15, 20111,098± 3.0%38%40%22%
Survey USA [62] April 27–28, 2011610± 4.0%41%48%11%
Hypothetical polling

Christine Gregoire vs. Rob McKenna

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Christine
Gregoire (D)		Rob
McKenna (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [61] May 12–15, 20111,098± 3.0%40%49%11%
Survey USA [62] April 27–28, 2011610± 4.0%40%52%7%

Christine Gregoire vs. Dave Reichert

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Christine
Gregoire (D)		Dave
Reichert (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [61] May 12–15, 20111,098± 3.0%45%41%14%
Survey USA [62] April 27–28, 2011610± 4.0%44%48%8%

Jay Inslee vs. Dave Reichert

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jay
Inslee (D)		Dave
Reichert (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [61] May 12–15, 20111,098± 3.0%42%36%22%
Survey USA [62] April 27–28, 2011610± 4.0%44%46%10%

Lisa Brown vs. Rob McKenna

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lisa
Brown (D)		Rob
McKenna (R)		Undecided
Public Policy Polling [63] July 27-August 1, 20101,204± 2.8%29%47%24%

Results

The race was close throughout the night, with results too close to call after 60 percent of ballots were cast. [64] Inslee was declared the winner early in the morning three days later; McKenna conceded later in the evening. [65]

Inslee won only eight of the state's 39 counties, relying on heavy votes from the Seattle metropolitan area pushing him to victory. [66]

2012 Washington gubernatorial election [67] [68]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic Jay Inslee 1,582,802 51.40% −1.84%
Republican Rob McKenna 1,488,24548.33%+1.57%
Write-in 8,5920.28%N/A
Majority94,5573.07%
Total votes3,079,639 100.00%
Democratic hold Swing -3.41%

By county

County [69] Jay Inslee
Democratic		Rob McKenna
Republican		MarginTotal votes cast
#%#%#%
Adams 1,40829.78%3,32070.22%-1,912-40.44%4,728
Asotin 4,02741.50%5,67758.50%-1,650-17.00%9,704
Benton 27,29134.97%50,75765.03%-23,466-30.07%78,048
Chelan 11,61636.41%20,29163.59%-8,675-27.19%31,907
Clallam 17,51646.66%20,02153.34%-2,505-6.67%37,537
Clark 86,73246.92%98,13153.08%-11,399-6.17%184,863
Columbia 65629.54%1,56570.46%-909-40.93%2,221
Cowlitz 21,05148.21%22,61251.79%-1,561-3.58%43,663
Douglas 4,74631.88%10,13968.12%-5,393-36.23%14,885
Ferry 1,29937.98%2,12162.02%-822-24.04%3,420
Franklin 8,18136.50%14,23263.50%-6,051-27.00%22,413
Garfield 33326.58%92073.42%-587-46.85%1,253
Grant 8,65431.59%18,74268.41%-10,088-36.82%27,396
Grays Harbor 14,49150.90%13,97849.10%5131.80%28,469
Island 19,32446.67%22,08253.33%-2,758-6.66%41,406
Jefferson 12,17662.29%7,37037.71%4,80624.59%19,546
King 590,87962.36%356,71337.64%234,16624.71%947,592
Kitsap 60,57849.72%61,26150.28%-683-0.56%121,839
Kittitas 7,13739.90%10,75260.10%-3,615-20.21%17,889
Klickitat 4,44244.07%5,63855.93%-1,196-11.87%10,080
Lewis 11,86535.03%22,00264.97%-10,137-29.93%33,867
Lincoln 1,71629.57%4,08870.43%-2,372-40.87%5,804
Mason 13,17547.25%14,70852.75%-1,533-5.50%27,883
Okanogan 6,75940.55%9,90959.45%-3,150-18.90%16,668
Pacific 5,37951.73%5,02048.27%3593.45%10,399
Pend Oreille 2,44237.06%4,14862.94%-1,706-25.89%6,590
Pierce 164,21148.54%174,07851.46%-9,867-2.92%338,289
San Juan 6,76364.82%3,67135.18%3,09229.63%10,434
Skagit 25,87847.33%28,80352.67%-2,925-5.35%54,681
Skamania 2,43445.92%2,86754.08%-433-8.17%5,301
Snohomish 166,45251.23%158,44048.77%8,0122.47%324,892
Spokane 95,35443.49%123,89456.51%-28,540-13.02%219,248
Stevens 7,42633.79%14,55466.21%-7,128-32.43%21,980
Thurston 67,35353.75%57,94846.25%9,4057.51%125,301
Wahkiakum 96442.83%1,28757.17%-323-14.35%2,251
Walla Walla 9,35338.03%15,23861.97%-5,885-23.93%24,591
Whatcom 53,59953.10%47,34046.90%6,2596.20%100,939
Whitman 7,35143.83%9,42156.17%-2,070-12.34%16,772
Yakima 31,79141.67%44,50758.33%-12,716-16.67%76,298
Totals1,582,80251.54%1,488,24548.46%94,5573.08%3,071,047
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Inslee won 5 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 5 going to McKenna, including one that elected a Democrat. [70]

DistrictInsleeMcKennaRepresentative
1st 48%52% Suzan DelBene
2nd 54%46% Rick Larsen
3rd 46%54% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 37%63% Doc Hastings
5th 42%58% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 51%49% Norm Dicks
Derek Kilmer
7th 74%26% Jim McDermott
8th 43%57% Dave Reichert
9th 61%39% Adam Smith
10th 51%49% Denny Heck

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

Partisan clients

  1. 1 2 Poll sponsored by the Service Employees International Union, which supports Inslee

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References

  1. ↑ "Washington's 2012 elections". Balletopedia - The Encyclopedia of American Politics. Balletopedia. Archived from the original on May 8, 2017. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
  2. ↑ "RCW 29a.04.311: Primaries". apps.leg.wa.gov. Archived from the original on August 13, 2011. Retrieved July 2, 2011.
  3. ↑ Pages - Top 2 Primary Archived April 25, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  4. 1 2 Garber, Andrew (June 13, 2011). "2 terms and out for Gov. Chris Gregoire". The Seattle Times . Archived from the original on June 16, 2011. Retrieved June 13, 2011.
  5. ↑ Grygiel, Chris (March 10, 2012). "US Rep. Inslee to resign for Wash. gov. race". The News Tribune. Associated Press.[ dead link ]
  6. ↑ Brunner, Jim (November 10, 2012). "McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on November 12, 2012. Retrieved November 11, 2012.
  7. ↑ "Inslee Announcement Prompts More Democratic Interest" Archived 2011-06-29 at the Wayback Machine , Roll Call Politics
  8. ↑ "Lisa Brown endorses Inslee" [ dead link ]
  9. ↑ "Inslee Running for Gov; Constantine Cheers Him on Facebook - PubliCola". 30 June 2011. Archived from the original on 30 June 2011. Retrieved 29 June 2011.
  10. ↑ 2012 races take shape - Elections - The Olympian [ dead link ]
  11. ↑ Haglund, Noah (October 19, 2011). "Aaron Reardon says he has no plans to run for governor or Congress". The Herald (Everett) . Archived from the original on October 22, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2011.
  12. ↑ Sims Quits HUD Post, Hotline On Call Archived June 16, 2011, at the Wayback Machine
  13. ↑ Garber, Andrew (July 5, 2011). "Brian Sonntag will not run for governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on July 9, 2011. Retrieved July 5, 2011.
  14. ↑ "State auditor Brian Sonntag makes decision on governor's race-KING5.com Seattle". Archived from the original on July 28, 2011. Retrieved July 5, 2011.
  15. ↑ Cornfield, Jerry (August 9, 2011). "Everett pastor enters governor race". The Herald (Everett) . Archived from the original on August 10, 2012. Retrieved August 16, 2011.
  16. ↑ Brunner, Jim (June 8, 2011). "McKenna launches campaign for governor". The Seattle Times.
  17. 1 2 Connelly, Joel (June 8, 2011). "Reichert: I'll support McKenna for governor". Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Archived from the original on June 10, 2011. Retrieved June 10, 2011.
  18. ↑ Rathbun, Andy (November 19, 2009). "Sultan man declares 2012 governor bid". The Herald (Everett) . Archived from the original on July 28, 2012. Retrieved October 12, 2011.
  19. ↑ Chism Strategies Archived 2011-09-15 at the Wayback Machine
  20. ↑ "August 07, 2012 Primary Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  21. ↑ "2012 Governor Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  22. ↑ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  23. ↑ "2012 Gubernatorial Ratings". Gubernatorial Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  24. ↑ "2012 Elections Map - 2012 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Archived from the original on December 1, 2018. Retrieved November 30, 2018.
  25. ↑ "Obama Endorses Jay Inslee". The Stranger .
  26. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 "Updated: Gubernatorial newspaper endorsement tally: 12 recommend Rob McKenna, while Olympian gives Jay Inslee the nod". The Seattle Times . October 24, 2020.
  27. ↑ "The Stranger Election Control Board's Endorsements For the November 6, 2012, General Election". The Stranger . October 17, 2012.
  28. 1 2 3 "Democrats for McKenna (D4R) Launches". June 12, 2012.
  29. ↑ Real Clear Politics
  30. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  31. ↑ KING5/SurveyUSA
  32. ↑ KCTS 9/Washington Poll
  33. ↑ Elway Poll
  34. ↑ Strategies360
  35. ↑ Public Policy Polling/WCV
  36. ↑ KCTS 9/Washington Poll
  37. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  38. ↑ SurveyUSA
  39. ↑ SurveyUSA
  40. ↑ Rasmussen Reports
  41. ↑ Public Elway Poll
  42. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  43. ↑ Survey USA
  44. ↑ Survey USA
  45. ↑ Elway Poll
  46. ↑ Survey USA
  47. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  48. ↑ Elway Poll
  49. ↑ Strategies360
  50. ↑ Survey USA
  51. ↑ Grove Insights (D)
  52. ↑ Grove Insights (D)
  53. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  54. ↑ Survey USA
  55. ↑ Elway Poll
  56. ↑ Survey USA
  57. ↑ Survey USA
  58. ↑ Washington Poll
  59. ↑ Survey USA
  60. ↑ Survey USA
  61. 1 2 3 4 Public Policy Polling
  62. 1 2 3 4 Survey USA
  63. ↑ Public Policy Polling
  64. ↑ "Inslee vs. McKenna could drag on". The Seattle Times. November 6, 2012. Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
  65. ↑ Brunner, Jim (November 9, 2012). "McKenna concedes; Inslee to be governor". The Seattle Times. Archived from the original on October 6, 2016. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
  66. ↑ Johnson, Kirk (November 28, 2012). "In West's 'Democratopolis,' Winning an Election With Only 8 of 39 Counties". The New York Times . p. A22. Archived from the original on March 2, 2017. Retrieved August 25, 2016.
  67. ↑ "November 06, 2012 General Election Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved December 2, 2024.
  68. ↑ "Washington gubernatorial election, 2012". Ballotpedia. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
  69. ↑ "Governor - County Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
  70. ↑ Results. sos.wa.gov (Report).

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