2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

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2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
Flag of Washington.svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
Turnout82.05% (of registered voters) Increase2.svg6.59% [1]
  John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote110
Popular vote1,510,2011,304,894
Percentage52.77%45.60%

Washington Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
2004 United States presidential election in Washington by congressional district.svg

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Washington took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 11 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

The State of Washington was considered a competitive swing state in 2004, and on election day, Kerry won the state with a margin of 7.2%. This is the most recent presidential election in which Washington was considered a swing state. [2] As of the 2024 presidential election , this remains the last time the state's margin of victory was in single digits and the last time a Republican received more than 45% of the state's vote. This was the only time since statehood that any president was elected twice without carrying Washington either time, a feat that lasted until 2024.

Caucuses

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [3]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportSolid D
Cook Political ReportSolid D
NewsweekSolid D
Zogby InternationalLikely D
Washington PostLikely D
Research 2000Solid D
Washington TimesSolid D
Washington DispatchLikely D
The New York TimesSolid D
CNNLikely D
Associated PressSolid D
Rasmussen ReportsLikely D

Polling

Kerry won every single pre-election except one tie. The final 3 poll average had Kerry winning with 50% to 45%. [4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $3,263,363. [5] Kerry raised $5,337,921. [6]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election. [7] [8]

Analysis

A Democratic leaning swing state at the time, Washington has voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in every presidential election since 1988. Like Oregon, the state is divided politically by the urban/rural divide and geographically by the Cascade Mountains. Most of the state's population resides in Western Washington along the Pacific Coast and in highly urbanized areas like Seattle; this part of the state votes overwhelmingly Democratic. The other side of the mountains in Eastern Washington is much more rural and conservative and therefore heavily Republican. While polling showed that voters trusted Bush more than Kerry on the issue of terrorism, the Iraq War and Bush's domestic policies were unpopular in the state. [9] As of the 2024 presidential election , this is the last election in which Clark County, Island County, and Skagit County voted for the Republican candidate.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Washington (state)
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic John Forbes Kerry John Reid Edwards 1,510,20152.77%11
Republican George Walker Bush (incumbent) Richard Bruce Cheney (incumbent)1,304,89445.60%0
Independent Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 23,2830.81%0
Libertarian Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 11,9550.42%0
Constitution Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 3,9220.14%0
Green David Cobb Pat LaMarche2,9740.10%0
Write-insWrite-ins2,6290.09%0
Workers World John ParkerTeresa Gutierrez1,0770.04%0
Socialist Workers Roger Calero Margaret Trowe 5470.02%0
Socialist Equality Bill Van Auken Jim Lawrence2310.01%0
Totals2,859,084100.00%11
Voter turnout (Voting age population)61.7%

By county

CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Adams 1,31525.65%3,75173.16%611.19%-2,436-47.51%5,127
Asotin 3,31937.78%5,32060.55%1471.67%-2,001-22.77%8,786
Benton 21,54932.21%44,35066.30%9931.48%-22,801-34.09%66,892
Chelan 10,47135.58%18,48262.80%4771.62%-8,011-27.22%29,430
Clallam 17,04946.37%18,87151.33%8462.30%-1,822-4.96%36,766
Clark 79,53846.65%88,64651.99%2,3111.36%-9,108-5.34%170,495
Columbia 60528.71%1,47069.77%321.52%-865-41.06%2,107
Cowlitz 21,58950.76%20,21747.54%7241.71%1,3723.22%42,530
Douglas 4,30632.20%8,90066.56%1661.25%-4,594-34.36%13,372
Ferry 1,20135.92%2,01960.38%1243.71%-818-24.46%3,344
Franklin 5,18832.11%10,75766.57%2141.32%-5,569-34.46%16,159
Garfield 36527.65%93570.83%201.51%-570-43.18%1,320
Grant 7,77929.92%17,79968.47%4171.60%-10,020-38.55%25,995
Grays Harbor 14,58352.17%12,87146.05%4991.78%1,7126.12%27,953
Island 18,21647.22%19,75451.20%6101.58%-1,538-3.98%38,580
Jefferson 11,61062.25%6,65035.66%3902.09%4,96026.59%18,650
King 580,37864.87%301,04333.65%13,3071.48%279,33531.22%894,728
Kitsap 60,79651.23%55,60846.86%2,2661.91%5,1884.37%118,670
Kittitas 6,73141.77%9,05256.17%3312.05%-2,321-14.40%16,114
Klickitat 4,03643.63%5,01654.23%1982.15%-980-10.60%9,250
Lewis 10,72633.08%21,04264.89%6602.04%-10,316-31.81%32,428
Lincoln 1,70629.36%4,01569.09%901.56%-2,309-39.73%5,811
Mason 12,89450.78%11,98747.20%5132.01%9073.58%25,394
Okanogan 6,30938.61%9,63658.96%3972.43%-3,327-20.35%16,342
Pacific 5,57053.40%4,63444.43%2272.17%9368.97%10,431
Pend Oreille 2,31037.27%3,69359.58%1953.14%-1,383-22.31%6,198
Pierce 158,23150.43%150,78348.05%4,7791.53%7,4482.38%313,793
San Juan 6,58965.21%3,29032.56%2252.23%3,29932.65%10,104
Skagit 25,13148.05%26,13949.98%1,0291.96%-1,008-1.93%52,299
Skamania 2,37446.02%2,69552.24%901.74%-321-6.22%5,159
Snohomish 156,46852.97%134,31745.47%4,6291.57%22,1517.50%295,414
Spokane 87,49043.19%111,60655.09%3,4911.72%-24,116-11.90%202,587
Stevens 6,82233.54%13,01563.99%5032.47%-6,193-30.45%20,340
Thurston 62,65055.55%47,99242.55%2,1471.90%14,65813.00%112,789
Wahkiakum 1,02145.68%1,17152.39%431.92%-150-6.71%2,235
Walla Walla 8,25736.02%14,32362.48%3451.50%-6,066-26.46%22,925
Whatcom 48,26853.40%40,29644.58%1,8302.02%7,9728.82%90,394
Whitman 8,28746.01%9,39752.17%3281.83%-1,110-6.16%18,012
Yakima 28,47439.12%43,35259.56%9641.32%-14,878-20.44%72,790
Totals1,510,20152.77%1,304,89445.60%46,6181.63%205,3077.17%2,861,713
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Gain from Republican
Republican
Hold Washington County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

Kerry won six of nine congressional districts. Both candidates won a district held by the other party. [10]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st 42%56% Jay Inslee
2nd 47%51% Rick Larsen
3rd 50%48% Brian Baird
4th 63%35% Doc Hastings
5th 57%41% George Nethercutt
Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 45%53% Norm Dicks
7th 19%79% Jim McDermott
8th 48%51% Jennifer Dunn
Dave Reichert
9th 46%53% Adam Smith

Electors

Technically the voters of Washington cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Washington is allocated 11 electors because it has 9 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 11 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 11 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 11 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:

  1. David Peterson
  2. Mary Ervin
  3. Valeria Ogden
  4. Patsy Whitefoot
  5. Larry Armstrong
  6. Ken Bumgarner
  7. Richard Kelley
  8. Sarah Chandler
  9. Greg Markley
  10. Alan Johanson
  11. Mary Crosby

See also

References

  1. Secretary of State: Kim Wyman. "Voter Turnout by Election". www.sos.wa.gov. Retrieved May 25, 2020.
  2. Levien, Andrea (October 4, 2012). "How New Mexico Lost Its Swing". FairVote. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  3. Members DC Political Report [ permanent dead link ]
  4. "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Washington Polls". US Election Atlas.
  5. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  6. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  7. "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN . Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  8. "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  9. "Election 2004: Exit polls". Cnn.com. April 13, 1970. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  10. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".