2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas

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2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas
Flag of Arkansas (1924-2011).svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote60
Popular vote572,898469,953
Percentage54.31%44.55%

Arkansas Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. State voters chose six representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

Arkansas was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 9.8% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 11 out of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. Although there was little advertising and campaigning, polling did show a tight race as Bush won the state in 2000 with just over 50%. This was the last election in which Arkansas was decided by a single-digit margin or in which the Democrat received more than 40% of the state’s vote, and the last election in which Arkansas voted to the left of Arizona, Louisiana, Tennessee, Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Indiana.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [1]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLean R
Associated PressLean R
CNNLikely R
Cook Political ReportLikely R
NewsweekLean R
New York TimesLean R
Rasmussen ReportsLikely R
Research 2000Lean R
Washington PostLikely R
Washington TimesLean R
Zogby InternationalToss-up
Washington DispatchLikely R

Polling

Pre-election polling showed Bush leading throughout most of the general election. Bush frequently reached the 50% threshold, while Kerry never reached 47% in any poll taken prior to the election. The final 3 polls averaged Bush leading at 51% to Kerry at 45%. [2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $1,387,692. [3] Kerry raised $466,194. [4]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited the state during the fall campaign. [5] [6]

Analysis

Early on, Kerry was seen to have a small but mostly insignificant chance at possibly flipping the state back to the Democratic Column. The Kerry Campaign saw Arkansas as a "Secondary Concern" focusing on the more important states such as Ohio and Wisconsin that were the key to winning the General Election. During October however Bush began to widen the margin in many polls mostly due to Bush portraying Kerry as a "Northern Yankee big-city liberal" and a "Tax raiser" in the Presidential debates and after Osama bin Laden delivered a speech on the Arabic news network Al Jazeera days before the election quoted saying “Your security is in your own hands” Bush was essentially guaranteed to carry the state from then on. [7] [8] [9]

On election day Bush performed better than what polls showed, outperforming nearly every single poll. [10]

The only areas that went for Democratic opponent John Kerry were a handful of Delta counties; the state capital, Little Rock; Pine Bluff; and only a few counties to the south. Bush performed better in Arkansas than last election against Al Gore, the VP of Bill Clinton, the latter being the home son of Arkansas.

In this election, Arkansas voted 7.3% to the right of the nation at-large. [11]

Although Arkansas is the home of former Democratic Governor and President Bill Clinton, who won his state's electoral vote in both 1992 and 1996, Democratic nominees Al Gore in 2000 and John Kerry in 2004 were both unsuccessful in carrying Arkansas, which went to Republican nominee George W. Bush in both elections. This election represented, arguably, the last time Arkansas was considered competitive on a national political level, as the GOP would gain supporters due to an increased distaste for the social liberalism espoused by the Democratic Party. Over the next 12 years, various Democrats representing Arkansas federally and statewide (including all three Democratic Congressmen in the House and both Democratic Senators at the time) would retire or be defeated in "wave" elections, culminating in the state rejecting its former first lady, Hillary Clinton, by almost 27 points in the 2016 election. As of the 2020 election, no statewide or federally elected position (i.e. Congress) in Arkansas is held by a Democrat.

As of the 2020 presidential election , Kerry remains the last Democratic candidate to win more than 40% of the vote. It is also the last election in which Jackson County, Monroe County, Clark County, Mississippi County, Lawrence County, Clay County, Poinsett County, Lincoln County, Bradley County, Randolph County, Hempstead County and Little River County voted for the Democratic candidate. This is also the last time in which the state was decided by a single digit margin of victory.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Arkansas [12] [13]
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Republican George W. Bush (incumbent) Dick Cheney (incumbent)572,89854.31%6
Democratic John Kerry John Edwards 469,95344.55%0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 6,1710.58%0
Independent Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 2,3450.22%0
Independent Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 2,0830.20%0
Independent David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 1,4880.14%0
Totals1,054,945100.00%6
Voter turnout (Voter age)50%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Arkansas 3,78954.55%3,11044.77%470.68%6799.78%6,946
Ashley 4,56753.65%3,88145.59%640.76%6868.06%8,512
Baxter 11,12860.05%7,12938.47%2731.47%3,99921.58%18,530
Benton 46,57168.37%20,75630.47%7941.17%25,81537.90%68,121
Boone 9,79366.27%4,64031.40%3442.32%5,15334.87%14,777
Bradley 2,01147.33%2,20651.92%320.75%-195-4.59%4,249
Calhoun 1,34058.29%93940.84%200.86%40117.45%2,299
Carroll 6,18459.00%4,16139.70%1361.30%2,02319.30%10,481
Chicot 1,72536.26%2,99362.92%390.82%-1,268-26.66%4,757
Clark 4,14444.99%4,99054.17%770.84%-846-9.18%9,211
Clay 2,75945.26%3,26453.54%731.20%-505-8.28%6,096
Cleburne 7,10760.43%4,51738.41%1371.16%2,59022.02%11,761
Cleveland 2,00957.47%1,45041.48%371.06%55915.99%3,496
Columbia 5,72957.82%4,10841.46%720.72%1,62116.36%9,909
Conway 4,00949.59%3,98249.26%931.15%270.33%8,084
Craighead 15,81853.08%13,66545.85%3181.07%2,1537.23%29,801
Crawford 13,39165.64%6,76433.16%2461.20%6,62732.48%20,401
Crittenden 6,93045.29%8,27754.10%930.61%-1,347-8.81%15,300
Cross 3,86454.62%3,13544.32%751.06%72910.30%7,074
Dallas 1,70050.18%1,67149.32%170.50%290.86%3,388
Desha 1,72937.21%2,85161.35%671.45%-1,122-24.14%4,647
Drew 3,26252.20%2,95247.24%350.56%3104.96%6,249
Faulkner 21,51458.64%14,53839.63%6341.73%6,97619.01%36,686
Franklin 4,18157.36%3,00841.27%1001.37%1,17316.09%7,289
Fulton 2,52250.90%2,37047.83%631.27%1523.07%4,955
Garland 21,73454.13%18,04044.93%3800.95%3,6949.20%40,154
Grant 4,20562.11%2,52437.28%410.61%1,68124.83%6,770
Greene 7,23751.86%6,56447.04%1541.10%6734.82%13,955
Hempstead 3,58048.04%3,81751.22%550.74%-237-3.18%7,452
Hot Spring 5,96049.40%5,90148.91%2041.69%590.49%12,065
Howard 2,73655.35%2,16643.82%410.83%57011.53%4,943
Independence 7,43057.11%5,44341.83%1381.06%1,98715.28%13,011
Izard 2,83351.57%2,58647.08%741.35%2474.49%5,493
Jackson 2,62442.19%3,51556.52%801.29%-891-14.33%6,219
Jefferson 10,21833.51%19,67564.52%6001.97%-9,457-31.01%30,493
Johnson 4,31153.59%3,62245.03%1111.38%6898.56%8,044
Lafayette 1,60450.27%1,56748.11%200.63%371.16%3,191
Lawrence 2,95144.61%3,54453.58%1201.81%-593-8.97%6,615
Lee 1,49236.57%2,54862.45%400.98%-1,056-25.88%4,080
Lincoln 1,92146.75%2,14952.30%390.95%-228-5.55%4,109
Little River 2,57548.64%2,67750.57%420.80%-102-1.93%5,294
Logan 5,07659.36%3,36139.31%1141.33%1,71520.05%8,551
Lonoke 14,39865.36%7,45433.84%1780.80%6,94431.52%22,030
Madison 3,87360.67%2,42137.92%901.41%1,45222.75%6,384
Marion 4,12760.10%2,60237.89%1382.01%1,52522.21%6,867
Miller 8,44857.56%6,13941.82%910.62%2,30915.74%14,678
Mississippi 6,12143.25%7,59353.65%4393.11%-1,472-10.40%14,153
Monroe 1,58643.25%2,04955.88%320.87%-463-12.63%3,667
Montgomery 2,36759.80%1,52438.50%671.69%84321.30%3,958
Nevada 1,75250.39%1,69448.72%310.89%581.67%3,477
Newton 2,77963.48%1,50634.40%932.11%1,27329.08%4,378
Ouachita 5,34550.19%5,18848.71%1171.09%1571.48%10,650
Perry 2,43554.95%1,92143.35%751.69%51411.60%4,431
Phillips 3,16135.65%5,64263.62%650.73%-2,481-27.97%8,868
Pike 2,01359.79%1,31038.91%441.30%70320.88%3,367
Poinsett 3,55546.03%4,06952.69%991.28%-514-6.66%7,723
Polk 5,19266.57%2,47331.71%1341.72%2,71934.86%7,799
Pope 13,61465.13%7,10033.97%1880.90%6,51431.16%20,902
Prairie 2,03056.02%1,56243.10%320.88%46812.92%3,624
Pulaski 67,90344.20%84,53255.03%1,1850.77%-16,629-10.83%153,620
Randolph 3,15847.37%3,41251.18%971.44%-254-3.81%6,667
St. Francis 3,81539.79%5,68459.28%890.93%-1,869-19.49%9,588
Saline 24,86463.15%14,15335.94%3590.92%10,71127.21%39,376
Scott 2,51462.26%1,47336.48%511.26%1,04125.78%4,038
Searcy 2,56564.25%1,37034.32%571.44%1,19529.93%3,992
Sebastian 27,30361.76%16,47937.27%4290.97%10,82424.49%44,211
Sevier 2,51654.68%2,03544.23%501.08%48110.45%4,601
Sharp 4,09754.85%3,26543.71%1081.45%83211.14%7,470
Stone 3,18857.45%2,25540.64%1061.91%93316.81%5,549
Union 10,50258.89%7,07139.65%2591.46%3,43119.24%17,832
Van Buren 3,98854.08%3,31044.89%761.03%6789.19%7,374
Washington 35,72655.73%27,59743.05%7801.22%8,12912.68%64,103
White 17,00164.34%9,12934.55%2951.12%7,87229.79%26,425
Woodruff 1,02133.74%1,97265.17%331.09%-951-31.43%3,026
Yell 3,67855.23%2,91343.75%681.03%76511.48%6,659
Totals572,89854.31%469,95344.55%12,0941.15%102,9459.76%1,054,945
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic Arkansas County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won all 4 congressional districts, including three held by Democrats. [14]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st 52%47% Marion Berry
2nd 51%48% Vic Snyder
3rd 62%36% John Boozman
4th 51%48% Mike Ross

Electors

Technically the voters of Arkansas cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arkansas is allocated 6 electors because it has 4 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 6 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 6 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from Arkansas. All were pledged to and voted for George W. Bush and Dick Cheney:

  1. Bobbi Dodge
  2. Gay White
  3. Ida Fineburg
  4. John Felts
  5. Jim Davis
  6. Martha McCaskill

See also

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References

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  2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President". www.campaignmoney.com.
  5. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  6. "CNN.com Specials". www.cnn.com.
  7. Staff, Arkansas Times (October 22, 2004). "Election 2004".
  8. "CNN.com - Bin Laden: 'Your security is in your own hands' - Oct 29, 2004". edition.cnn.com.
  9. "November 5, 2004 ~ Commentary: The 2004 Election | November 5, 2004 | Religion & Ethics NewsWeekly | PBS". PBS . November 5, 2004.
  10. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  11. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved March 31, 2023.
  12. "CNN.com Election 2004". www.cnn.com.
  13. "2004 Presidential General Election Results - Arkansas".
  14. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".