This article provides a collection of statewide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the 2004 United States presidential election . All candidates involved in polling are John Kerry, against incumbent President George W. Bush, with third-party candidates Ralph Nader (Independent), Michael Badnarik (Libertarian), David Cobb (Green), and Michael Peroutka (Constitution). Additional third-party candidates were on the Minnesota presidential ballot.
9 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1] | October 21–30 | 42% | 53% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA [2] | October 25–27 | 39% | 57% | 18 | 634 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [3] | October 6–20 | 41% | 53% | 12 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA [4] | October 1–3 | 34% | 62% | 28 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [5] | September 15–28 | 40% | 56% | 16 | Not reported | ±5% |
| American Research Group [6] | September 13–16 | 40% | 54% | 14 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [7] | September 3–14 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 416 LV | ±5% |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center [8] | August 30–31 | 34% | 54% | 20 | 482 LV | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [9] | August 1–26 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 500 LV | ±5% |
| WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA [10] | August 21–23 | 37% | 58% | 21 | 599 LV | ±4.1% |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center [11] | July 22–28 | 34% | 56% | 22 | 590 LV | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [12] | June 1–30 | 38% | 52% | 14 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [13] | May 1–31 | 36% | 57% | 21 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center [14] | May 4–6, 17–20 | 37% | 56% | 19 | 785 RV | ±3.5% |
| Mobile Register/University of South Alabama [15] | May 10–13 | 35% | 55% | 20 | 400 RV | ±5% |
| WKRG-TV Mobile/SurveyUSA [16] | May 1–3 | 36% | 55% | 19 | 743 LV | ±3.7% |
| University of South Alabama [17] | March 15–18 | 27% | 59% | 32 | 405 A | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center [18] | October 11–13 | 32% | 56% | 1% | 24 | 546 LV | ±4% |
| Mobile Register/University of South Alabama [19] | September 27–30 | 22% | 59% | 1% | 37 | 519 LV | ±4.3% |
| Alabama Education Association/Capital Survey Research Center [20] | August 9–12 | 34% | 51% | 1% | 17 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Mobile Register/University of South Alabama [21] | May 10–13 | 29% | 54% | 5% | 25 | 400 RV | ±5% |
3 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [22] | September 9–11 | 30% | 57% | 5% | 27 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Dittman Research [23] | June 23–30 | 33% | 56% | 5% | 23 | 511 RV | ±4% |
10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA [24] | October 28–30 | 41% | 56% | 15 | 599 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [25] | October 26 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group [26] | October 18–19 | 40% | 47% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA [27] | October 17–19 | 43% | 54% | 11 | 616 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive [28] | October 15–18 | 47% | 50% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Northern Arizona University [29] | October 7–11 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 401 LV | ±5% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA [30] | October 5–7 | 41% | 55% | 14 | 599 LV | ±4.1% |
| Zogby Interactive [31] | October 2–5 | 47% | 50% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group [32] | October 2–4 | 38% | 48% | 10 | 601 LV | ±4% |
| SurveyUSA [33] | September 27–29 | 44% | 53% | 9 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA [34] | September 21–23 | 43% | 54% | 11 | 631 LV | ±4% |
| Bradenton.com/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [35] | September 13–14 | 39% | 50% | 11 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group [36] | September 3–5 | 38% | 54% | 16 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [37] | August 19–22 | 39% | 47% | 8 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group [38] | July 30–August 1 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 601 LV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [39] | July 15–17 | 42% | 41% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA [40] | July 12–14 | 41% | 53% | 12 | 767 LV | ±3.6% |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) [41] | June 30–July 7 | 36% | 46% | 10 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [42] | June 1–6 | 45.3% | 48.3% | 3 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) [43] | April 29–May 4 | 42% | 46% | 4 | 555 RV | ±4.2% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [44] | April 23–26 | 38% | 41% | 3 | 410 RV | ±4.8% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA [45] | March 17–18 | 42% | 51% | 9 | 634 LV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [46] | February 19–22 | 46% | 44% | 2 | 430 RV | ±4.7% |
| KVOA-TV Tucson/KPNX-TV Phoenix/SurveyUSA [47] | February 18–19 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 534 RV | ±4.3% |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) [48] | January 6–12 | 38% | 48% | 10 | 704 A | ±3.7% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [49] | November 14–17, 2003 | 33% | 51% | 18 | Not reported | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [50] | October 19–21 | 42% | 49% | N/A | 1% | 7 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [51] | September 23–26 | 38% | 53% | N/A | 1% | 15 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Zogby Interactive [52] | September 13–17 | 48% | 49% | 3% | N/A | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| American Research Group [53] | September 11–14 | 43% | 49% | 1% | N/A | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [54] | June 24–27 | 35% | 47% | 2% | N/A | 12 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
| The Arizona Republic/Market Solutions Group [55] | June 10–13 | 41% | 44% | 2% | N/A | 3 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| KAET-TV-Phoenix/Channel 8/Arizona State University [56] | May 20–23 | 38% | 43% | 2% | N/A | 5 | 377 RV | ±5.1% |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) [57] | April 29–May 4 | 37% | 45% | 7% | N/A | 8 | 555 RV | ±4.2% |
6 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA [58] | October 30–November 1 | 46% | 51% | 5 | 550 LV | ±4.3% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [59] | October 27–29 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA [60] | October 23–25 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 649 LV | ±3.9% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA [61] | October 15–17 | 46% | 51% | 5 | 617 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [62] | October 11 | 45% | 51% | 6 | Not reported | ±5% |
| SurveyUSA [63] | October 1–3 | 44% | 53% | 9 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA [64] | September 27–29 | 44% | 53% | 9 | 579 LV | ±4.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [65] | September 12–25 | 44% | 51% | 7 | 500 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [66] | August 1–26 | 43% | 49% | 6 | Not reported | ±5% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA [67] | August 20–22 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 567 LV | ±4.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [68] | July 1–31 | 46% | 46% | Tied | Not reported | ±5% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA [69] | July 6–8 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 546 LV | ±4.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [70] | June 1–30 | 46% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [71] | June 1–6 | 43.8% | 49.5% | 5.7 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [72] | May 1–31 | 43% | 48% | 5 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [73] | May 2 | 45% | 45% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KTHV-TV Little Rock/SurveyUSA [74] | April 14–15 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 565 LV | ±4.2% |
| Arkansas State University [75] | March 1–April 8 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 418 A | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [76] | October 25–30 | 46.9% | 50.1% | 0.5% | 3.2 | 620 LV | ±3.9% |
| Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research Associates [77] | October 18–20 | 48% | 48% | 1% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| University of Arkansas [78] | October 5–20 | 44% | 53% | 2% | 9 | 618 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [79] | October 13–18 | 48.4% | 49.7% | 0.2% | 1.3 | 516 LV | ±4.3% |
| Arkansas Democrat-Gazette/Zogby International [80] | October 10–11 | 44.6% | 46.2% | 2% | 1.6 | 503 LV | ±4.5% |
| Arkansas News Bureau/Stephens Media Group/Opinion Research Associates [81] | October 4–6 | 43% | 52% | 1% | 9 | 502 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [82] | September 30–October 5 | 46.9% | 46.7% | 0.7% | 0.2 | 545 LV | ±3.6% |
| American Research Group [83] | September 15–17 | 45% | 48% | 2% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [84] | September 13–17 | 46.6% | 46.5% | 2.2% | 0.1 | 582 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [85] | August 30–September 3 | 45.9% | 47.6% | 0.6% | 1.7 | 574 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [86] | August 16–21 | 48.2% | 45.6% | 0.8% | 2.6 | 508 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [87] | July 26–30 | 46.4% | 47.9% | 0.5% | 1.5 | 503 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [88] | July 19–23 | 44.6% | 47.4% | 2% | 2.8 | 512 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [89] | July 6–10 | 44.5% | 46.7% | 4.4% | 2.2 | 508 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [90] | June 15–20 | 46.8% | 44.7% | 2.1% | 2.1 | 505 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [91] | June 1–6 | 43.5% | 51.2% | 1.6% | 7.7 | 699 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [92] | May 18–23 | 44.5% | 49.3% | 1.2% | 4.8 | 497 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [93] | May 2 | 45% | 45% | 0% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
55 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times [131] | September 17–21 | 53% | 40% | 2% | 13 | 861 LV | ±3% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) [132] | July 30–August 4 | 51% | 40% | 2% | 11 | 633 LV | ±4.1% |
| KABC-TV Los Angeles/KPIX-TV San Francisco/KXTV-TV Sacramento/KGTV-TV San Diego/SurveyUSA [133] | July 23–25 | 53% | 41% | 3% | 12 | 711 LV | ±3.8% |
| Public Policy Institute of California [134] | June 30–July 14 | 49% | 38% | 5% | 11 | 1,378 LV | ±2.7% |
| San José State University [135] | June 28–July 2 | 46% | 38% | 7% | 8 | 608 LV | ±4% |
| Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) [136] | May 18–24 | 51% | 39% | 4% | 12 | 647 RV | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times [137] | April 17–21 | 49% | 39% | 6% | 10 | 1,265 RV | ±3% |
9 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KUSA-TV Denver/SurveyUSA [138] | October 30–November 1 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 705 LV | ±3.8% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [139] | October 29–November 1 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA [140] | October 28–30 | 46% | 52% | 6 | 626 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [141] | October 25–28 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies [142] | October 25–27 | 42% | 51% | 9 | 500 LV | ±4.3% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [143] | October 21–24 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| League of Conservation Voters/Fairbank, Maslin & Associates (D) [144] | October 15–21 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA [145] | October 18–20 | 45% | 52% | 7 | 597 LV | ±4.1% |
| The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates [146] | October 15–19 | 43% | 50% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive [147] | October 13–18 | 48% | 49% | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| USA Today/CNN/Gallup [148] | October 14–17 | 46% | 51% | 5 | 666 LV | ±4% |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA [149] | October 5–7 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [150] | October 4–6 | 41% | 50% | 9 | 630 LV | ±4% |
| USA Today/CNN/Gallup [151] | October 3–6 | 49% | 49% | Tied | 667 LV | ±5% |
| Zogby Interactive [152] | October 2–6 | 49% | 48% | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA [153] | September 21–23 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 626 LV | ±4% |
| The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates [154] | September 14–18 | 39% | 51% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [155] | August 19 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KUSA-TV Denver/KOAA-TV Colorado Springs/SurveyUSA [156] | August 14–16 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 622 LV | ±4% |
| Denver Post/Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy [157] | June 15–18 | 43% | 48% | 5 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [158] | April 14 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [159] | October 27–29 | 43% | 50% | 1% | 7 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates [160] | October 15–19 | 42% | 48% | 2% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| USA Today/CNN/Gallup [161] | October 14–17 | 45% | 51% | 1% | 6 | 666 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [162] | October 14–16 | 43% | 49% | 1% | 6 | 630 LV | ±4% |
| Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies [163] | October 13–14 | 42% | 47% | 3% | 5 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| USA Today/CNN/Gallup [164] | October 3–6 | 49% | 49% | 1% | Tied | 667 LV | ±5% |
| The Pueblo Chieftain/Ciruli Associates [165] | September 14–18 | 38% | 50% | 3% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive [166] | September 13–17 | 48% | 49% | 3% | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies [167] | September 12–13 | 44% | 45% | 3% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group [168] | September 10–13 | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rocky Mountain News/News 4/Public Opinion Strategies [169] | March 31–April 1 | 40% | 49% | 4% | 9 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| Schaffer for Senate/McLaughlin & Associates (R) [170] | March 15–16 | 42% | 46% | 4% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
Six-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | David Cobb | Michael Badnarik | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [171] | October 18 | 45% | 50% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [172] | September 29 | 44% | 48% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [173] | September 16 | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University [174] | September 26–28 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 723 LV | ±3.6% |
| Quinnipiac University [175] | August 12–17 | 48% | 40% | 8 | 1,079 RV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University [176] | June 27–28 | 55% | 34% | 19 | 929 RV | ±3.2% |
| Quinnipiac University [177] | May 26–June 1 | 50% | 38% | 12 | 1,350 RV | ±2.7% |
| University of Connecticut [178] | February 26–29 | 49% | 36% | 13 | 448 RV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [179] | November 12–18, 2003 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 1,600 RV | ±2.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [180] | October 1–7, 2003 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 1,519 RV | ±2.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [181] | July 23–29, 2003 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 1,384 RV | ±2.6% |
| Quinnipiac University [182] | April 22–28, 2003 | 37% | 54% | 17 | 1,239 RV | ±2.8% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University [183] | September 26–28 | 50% | 44% | 2% | 6 | 723 LV | ±3.6% |
| American Research Group [184] | September 12–14 | 54% | 39% | 1% | 15 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [185] | August 12–17 | 45% | 38% | 6% | 7 | 1,079 RV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University [186] | June 27–28 | 50% | 32% | 9% | 18 | 929 RV | ±3.2% |
| Quinnipiac University [187] | May 26–June 1 | 46% | 36% | 8% | 10 | 1,350 RV | ±2.7% |
| University of Connecticut [188] | April 21–27 | 51% | 33% | 4% | 18 | 501 RV | ±4% |
| University of Connecticut [189] | March 22–28 | 52% | 33% | 4% | 19 | 511 RV | ±4% |
3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHYY-TV/West Chester University [190] | September 22–25 | 45.2% | 37.6% | 0.5% | 7.6 | 590 RV | ±3.9% |
| American Research Group [191] | September 13–15 | 50% | 41% | 2% | 9 | 600 LV | ±4% |
3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Lead Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [192] | September 11–13 | 78% | 11% | 6% | 67 | 600 LV | ±4% |
27 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [242] | October 30–November 1 | 50% | 48% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [243] | October 30–31 | 49% | 44% | 1% | 5 | 700 LV | ±4% |
| InsiderAdvantage [244] | October 29–31 | 48% | 48% | 1% | Tied | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Quinnipiac University [245] | October 27–31 | 43% | 51% | 1% | 8 | 1,098 LV | ±3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [246] | October 27–30 | 49% | 46% | 0% | 3 | 1,138 LV | ±4% |
| New York Times Regional Newspapers/Florida Poll [247] | October 23–27 | 48.3% | 46.7% | 1.5% | 1.6 | 802 LV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University [248] | October 22–26 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 3 | 944 LV | ±3.2% |
| Los Angeles Times [249] | October 22–26 | 43% | 51% | 2% | 8 | 510 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [250] | October 23–25 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [251] | October 21–24 | 43% | 51% | 1% | 8 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Schroth, Eldon & Associates/The Polling Company Inc. [252] | October 19–21 | 46% | 46% | 1% | Tied | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| InsiderAdvantage [253] | October 19–21 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | Not reported | Not reported |
| Quinnipiac University [254] | October 15–19 | 47% | 48% | 1% | 1 | 808 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [255] | October 13–18 | 48.9% | 50.1% | 0.3% | 1.2 | 2,131 LV | ±2.1% |
| University of North Florida [256] | October 10–15 | 45% | 44% | 2% | 1 | 614 LV | ±4% |
| Univision/Washington Post [257] | October 4–10 | 48% | 48% | 1% | Tied | 655 LV | ±4% |
| NBC2 News/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [258] | October 4–5 | 44% | 48% | 2% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [259] | October 2–5 | 47% | 45% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [260] | October 1–5 | 44% | 51% | 0% | 7 | 717 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [261] | September 30–October 5 | 49.5% | 49.1% | 0.5% | 0.4 | 1,925 LV | ±2.2% |
| America Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D) [262] | October 1–4 | 49% | 47% | 2% | 2 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [263] | September 24–27 | 43% | 52% | 1% | 9 | 704 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [264] | September 18–22 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 3 | 674 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [265] | September 18–21 | 41% | 49% | 5% | 8 | 819 RV | ±3.4% |
| American Research Group [266] | September 17–20 | 46% | 45% | 2% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [267] | September 13–17 | 48.1% | 47.6% | 0.9% | 0.5 | 1,669 LV | ±2.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [268] | September 6–12 | 47% | 48% | 1% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [269] | August 30–September 3 | 49.4% | 49.1% | 0.6% | 0.3 | 1,679 LV | ±2.4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [270] | August 20–22 | 46% | 48% | 2% | 2 | 671 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [271] | August 16–21 | 49.6% | 49% | 0.3% | 0.6 | 1,421 LV | ±2.6% |
| Quinnipiac University [272] | August 5–10 | 47% | 41% | 4% | 6 | 1,094 RV | ±3% |
| American Research Group [273] | August 3–5 | 50% | 43% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [274] | July 26–30 | 49.5% | 46.7% | 2% | 2.8 | 1,587 LV | ±2.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [275] | July 19–23 | 48.4% | 48.5% | 0.9% | 0.1 | 1,500 LV | ±2.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [276] | July 19–22 | 46% | 50% | 1% | 4 | 699 LV | ±4% |
| Orlando Sentinel/WESH NewsChannel 2/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [277] | July 19–21 | 46% | 48% | 2% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times [278] | July 19–21 | 44% | 45% | 2% | 1 | 729 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [279] | July 13–15 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [280] | July 6–10 | 50.8% | 44.2% | 2.9% | 6.6 | 1,156 LV | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University [281] | June 23–27 | 43% | 43% | 5% | Tied | 1,209 RV | ±2.8% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [282] | June 22–23 | 38% | 48% | 3% | 10 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [283] | June 21–23 | 47% | 46% | 2% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [284] | June 18–22 | 48% | 42% | 1% | 6 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [285] | June 15–20 | 46.1% | 50.3% | 0.5% | 4.2 | 1,429 LV | ±2.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [286] | June 11–17 | 48% | 44% | 1% | 4 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [287] | June 1–6 | 49.5% | 47.9% | 0.6% | 1.6 | 1,170 LV | ±2.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [288] | May 18–23 | 49% | 47.6% | 1% | 1.4 | 857 LV | ±3.4% |
| American Research Group [289] | May 17–19 | 46% | 47% | 3% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Coming Together/Hamilton Beattie (D) [290] | April 29–May 9 | 48% | 46% | 3% | 2 | 1,000 LV | ±3% |
| American Research Group [291] | April 18–21 | 45% | 46% | 3% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [292] | March 3–4 | 45% | 44% | 4% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald/Schroth, Eldon & Associates/The Polling Company [293] | March 3–4 | 49% | 43% | 3% | 6 | 800 RV | ±3.5% |
Five-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | David Cobb | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) [294] | August 24 | 47% | 49% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
15 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA [295] | October 28–30 | 41% | 53% | 12 | 628 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [296] | October 24–30 | 39% | 54% | 15 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International [297] | October 27–29 | 42% | 52% | 10 | 501 LV | ±4.5% |
| WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA [298] | October 18–20 | 40% | 57% | 17 | 609 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [299] | October 14–20 | 38% | 58% | 20 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International [300] | October 13–15 | 41% | 51% | 10 | 503 LV | ±4.5% |
| Atlanta Journal-Constitution/WSB-TV/Zogby International [301] | October 6–8 | 39% | 54% | 15 | 501 LV | ±4.5% |
| WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA [302] | October 5–7 | 39% | 58% | 19 | 594 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [303] | September 24–30 | 39% | 54% | 15 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [304] | September 9–22 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WXIA-TV Atlanta/SurveyUSA [305] | September 13–15 | 38% | 58% | 20 | 658 LV | ±3.9% |
| American Research Group [306] | September 11–13 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [307] | August 1–26 | 43% | 54% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [308] | July 1–31 | 42% | 53% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [309] | June 1–30 | 41% | 52% | 11 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [310] | May 1–31 | 39% | 51% | 12 | Not reported | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage [311] | May 31–June 2 | 32% | 49% | 3% | 17 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Schapiro Research Group [312] | February 5–9 | 44% | 47% | 1% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Star-Bulletin/KITV-4 News/SMS Research [313] | October 17–20 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 612 LV | ±4% |
| Honolulu Star-Advertiser/Ward Research [314] | October 13–18 | 42.6% | 43.3% | 0.7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [315] | September 7–11 | 51% | 41% | 4% | 10 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Star-Bulletin/KITV-4 News/SMS Research [316] | July 29–August 3 | 48% | 41% | 1% | 7 | 681 RV | ±3.7% |
4 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [317] | September 8–10 | 30% | 59% | 3% | 29 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KTVB-TV/KIDO Radio/Greg Smith & Associates [318] | June 8–10, 14 | 25% | 55% | 6% | 30 | 400 LV | Not reported |
21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [335] | September 13–16 | 49% | 43% | 2% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Chicago Tribune/WGN-TV/Market Shares Corp. [336] | May 21–24 | 53% | 37% | 4% | 16 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [337] | March 12 | 46% | 41% | 8% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [338] | March 8–10 | 39% | 47% | 2% | 8 | 625 RV | ±4% |
11 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Star/WTHR Channel 13/Selzer & Co. [350] | October 27–29 | 37% | 57% | N/A | 1% | 20 | 1,002 LV | ±3.1% |
| Indianapolis Star/WTHR Channel 13/Selzer & Co. [351] | May 13–19 | 33% | 54% | 6% | N/A | 21 | 540 LV | Not reported |
7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA [352] | October 31–November 1 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 519 LV | ±4.4% |
| Zogby Interactive (Daily Tracking) [353] | October 29–November 1 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA [354] | October 28–30 | 49% | 49% | Tied | 661 LV | ±3.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [355] | October 24–30 | 48% | 48% | Tied | Not reported | ±5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [356] | October 27–29 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive (Daily Tracking) [357] | October 25–28 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [358] | October 25–27 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby Interactive (Daily Tracking) [359] | October 21–24 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [360] | October 9–22 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA [361] | October 18–20 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 690 LV | ±3.8% |
| American Research Group [362] | October 10–12 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [363] | September 27–October 10 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA [364] | October 4–6 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 669 LV | ±3.9% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [365] | September 27–October 3 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 599 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [366] | September 24–30 | 45% | 48% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [367] | September 10–23 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA [368] | September 20–22 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 784 LV | ±3.6% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [369] | August 23–26 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 606 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [370] | August 1–26 | 48% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [371] | July 1–31 | 48% | 45% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| American Research Group [372] | July 26–28 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [373] | June 21–July 12 | 50.4% | 45.7% | 4.7 | 614 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [374] | June 1–30 | 48% | 44% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [375] | June 1–6 | 48.8% | 41.9% | 6.9 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [376] | May 1–31 | 49% | 41% | 8 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WHO-TV Des Moines/SurveyUSA [377] | May 24–26 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 794 LV | ±3.6% |
| American Research Group [378] | April 18–21 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [379] | March 23 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. [380] | February 7–11 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [381] | October 30–31 | 44% | 48% | 1% | 4 | 700 LV | ±3.7% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [382] | October 27–30 | 46% | 48% | 2% | 2 | 1,119 LV | ±3% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. [383] | October 25–29 | 48% | 45% | 1% | 3 | 806 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [384] | October 25–27 | 47% | 48% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [385] | October 22–25 | 46% | 50% | 1% | 4 | 649 LV | ±4% |
| Capital Surveys Inc. [386] | October 14–19 | 46% | 45% | 1% | 1 | 502 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [387] | October 15–18 | 43% | 49% | 1% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [388] | October 13–18 | 51.1% | 47.9% | 0.4% | 3.2 | 571 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [389] | October 10–12 | 47% | 47% | 1% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Chicago Tribune/Market Shares Corp. [390] | October 8–11 | 45% | 47% | 1% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [391] | September 30–October 5 | 51.1% | 44.5% | 0.2% | 6.6 | 586 LV | ±4.1% |
| America Coming Together/Harstad Strategic Research (D) [392] | October 3–4 | 43% | 46% | 3% | 3 | 717 RV | ±3.7% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [393] | September 27–October 3 | 47% | 46% | 4% | 1 | 599 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [394] | September 21–22 | 45% | 48% | 1% | 3 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [395] | September 16–19 | 44% | 50% | 2% | 6 | 631 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [396] | September 13–17 | 50.3% | 47.3% | 0.7% | 3 | 566 LV | ±4.1% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [397] | September 14–16 | 42% | 48% | 2% | 6 | 626 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [398] | September 12–14 | 46% | 48% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [399] | August 30–September 3 | 50.6% | 46.9% | 0.8% | 3.7 | 565 LV | ±4.1% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [400] | August 23–26 | 51% | 45% | 2% | 6 | 606 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [401] | August 16–21 | 52.2% | 45.2% | 0.6% | 7 | 508 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [402] | July 26–30 | 50% | 46.1% | 0.6% | 3.9 | 497 LV | ±4.4% |
| American Research Group [403] | July 26–28 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [404] | July 19–23 | 49.3% | 47.5% | 0.6% | 1.8 | 490 LV | ±4.4% |
| Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. [405] | July 17–21 | 45% | 46% | 2% | 1 | 641 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [406] | July 6–10 | 48.2% | 46.7% | 1.9% | 1.5 | 479 LV | ±4.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [407] | June 15–20 | 48.9% | 46.8% | 1.9% | 2.1 | 485 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [408] | June 1–6 | 48.9% | 47.6% | 1.2% | 1.3 | 702 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [409] | May 18–23 | 44.9% | 50.1% | 0.8% | 5.2 | 588 LV | ±4.0% |
| American Research Group [410] | April 18–21 | 47% | 46% | 3% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [411] | June 21–July 12 | 47.7% | 44.4% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 3.3 | 614 RV | ±4% |
6 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA [412] | October 25–27 | 37% | 60% | 23 | 651 LV | ±3.8% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA [413] | October 9–11 | 38% | 57% | 19 | 595 LV | ±4.1% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA [414] | September 7–9 | 35% | 60% | 25 | 604 LV | ±4% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA [415] | June 28–30 | 36% | 56% | 20 | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA [416] | March 3–4 | 39% | 57% | 18 | 501 RV | ±4.5% |
| KWCH-TV Wichita/SurveyUSA [417] | February 9–10 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 549 RV | ±4.3% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Star/Midwest Survey Research [418] | October 22–26 | 30% | 59% | 1% | 29 | 573 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [419] | September 15–18 | 35% | 57% | 2% | 22 | 600 LV | ±4% |
8 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA [420] | October 28–30 | 38% | 59% | 21 | 636 LV | ±4% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA [421] | October 17–19 | 37% | 59% | 22 | 629 LV | ±4% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA [422] | October 4–6 | 38% | 57% | 19 | 622 LV | ±4% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA [423] | September 7–9 | 39% | 56% | 17 | 665 LV | ±3.9% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA [424] | August 13–15 | 39% | 56% | 17 | 697 LV | ±3.8% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA [425] | July 24–26 | 42% | 52% | 10 | 690 LV | ±3.8% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA [426] | June 7–8 | 39% | 52% | 13 | 669 LV | ±3.9% |
| Louisville Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) [427] | May 5–11 | 40% | 52% | 12 | 665 LV | ±3.8% |
| WHAS-TV Louisville/WLEX-TV Lexington/SurveyUSA [428] | February 14–16 | 41% | 57% | 16 | 681 RV | ±3.8% |
| Louisville Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) [429] | January 30–February 4 | 38% | 55% | 17 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) [430] | October 18–20 | 39% | 56% | 1% | 16 | 690 LV | ±3.1% |
| Louisville Courier-Journal (Bluegrass Poll) [431] | September 10–15 | 38% | 53% | 3% | 15 | 657 LV | ±3.8% |
| American Research Group [432] | September 8–12 | 39% | 57% | 1% | 18 | 600 LV | ±4% |
9 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of New Orleans [433] | October 13–21 | 38% | 50% | 12 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KALB-TV Alexandria/WAFB-TV Baton Rouge/KPLC-TV Lake Charles/KNOE-TV Monroe/WDSU-TV New Orleans/KSLA-TV Shreveport/Southern Media & Opinion Research [434] | October 12–13 | 31% | 50% | 19 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Marketing Research Institute [435] | October 4–7 | 36% | 51% | 15 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| Marketing Research Institute [436] | August 31–September 2 | 36% | 53% | 17 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| Marketing Research Institute [437] | July 14–20 | 38% | 54% | 16 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| Marketing Research Institute [438] | May 19–27 | 42% | 48% | 6 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| Multi-Quest International [439] | May 21–25 | 29% | 48% | 19 | 400 RV | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southeastern Louisiana University [440] | October 17–22 | 32% | 58% | 1% | 26 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Marketing Research Institute [441] | October 17–19 | 37% | 52% | 1% | 15 | Not reported | Not reported |
| TV8 News/Ed Renwick/Loyola University New Orleans [442] | October 12–15 | 39% | 47% | 2% | 8 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [443] | September 17–21 | 42% | 50% | 1% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Harris, DeVille & Associates/Southern Media & Opinion Research [444] | March 17–29 | 37.6% | 51.7% | 1.7% | 14.1 | 700 RV | ±3.8% |
Six-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | David Cobb | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [445] | October 6 | 44% | 52% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [446] | October 28–30 | 52% | 44% | 8 | 1,008 LV | ±3.2% |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [447] | October 17–19 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 660 LV | ±3.9% |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [448] | October 3–5 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 653 LV | ±3.9% |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [449] | September 20–22 | 46% | 47% | 1 | 636 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [450] | August 1–26 | 49% | 44% | 5 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [451] | August 22–24 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 632 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [452] | July 1–31 | 48% | 44% | 4 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [453] | June 1–30 | 46% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [454] | May 1–31 | 54% | 35% | 19 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Critical Insights [455] | May 7–20 | 49% | 39% | 10 | Not reported | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maine Sunday Telegram/Zogby International [456] | October 20–21 | 50% | 39% | 1% | 11 | 402 LV | ±5% |
| Strategic Marketing Services [457] | September 23–27 | 42% | 39% | 4% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Critical Insights [458] | September 10–23 | 45% | 42% | 3% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [459] | September 8–10 | 48% | 44% | 4% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Portland Press Herald/Maine Sunday Telegram/Zogby International [460] | September 9 | 43% | 43% | 3% | Tied | 400 LV | ±5.0% |
| Strategic Marketing Services [461] | June 5–12 | 43.5% | 41% | 4.5% | 2.5 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
| Strategic Marketing Services [462] | February 28–March 3 | 51% | 38% | 4% | 13 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
1st congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [463] | October 28–30 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 527 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [464] | October 17–19 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 350 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [465] | October 3–5 | 53% | 43% | 10 | 343 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [466] | September 20–22 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 343 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [467] | August 22–24 | 52% | 43% | 9 | 332 LV | Not reported |
2nd congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [468] | October 28–30 | 52% | 45% | 7 | 480 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [469] | October 17–19 | 53% | 44% | 9 | 311 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [470] | October 3–5 | 44% | 53% | 9 | 310 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [471] | September 20–22 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 293 LV | Not reported |
| WCSH-TV Portland/WLBZ-TV Bangor/SurveyUSA [472] | August 22–24 | 45% | 45% | Tied | 299 LV | Not reported |
10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMAR-TV Baltimore/SurveyUSA [473] | October 27–29 | 54% | 43% | 11 | 607 LV | ±4.1% |
| Baltimore Sun/Ipsos [474] | October 25–26 | 56% | 39% | 17 | 602 RV | ±4% |
| NBC4 News/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [475] | October 24–26 | 52% | 41% | 11 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [476] | October 9–22 | 53% | 43% | 10 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [477] | September 26–October 8 | 52% | 41% | 9 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WMAR-TV Baltimore/SurveyUSA [478] | October 5–7 | 56% | 41% | 15 | 583 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [479] | September 14–27 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WMAR-TV Baltimore/SurveyUSA [480] | September 17–19 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [481] | August 1–26 | 54% | 41% | 13 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WMAR-TV Baltimore/SurveyUSA [482] | August 23–25 | 53% | 42% | 11 | 594 LV | ±4.1% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. [483] | August 10–15 | 53% | 40% | 13 | 847 RV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [484] | June 1–30 | 53% | 39% | 14 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. [485] | February 3–8 | 51% | 40% | 11 | Not reported | Not reported |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. [486] | October 1–5 | 52% | 42% | 1% | 10 | 801 RV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [487] | September 7–9 | 52% | 43% | 2% | 9 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. [488] | June 4–9 | 52% | 38% | 2% | 14 | 836 RV | ±3.5% |
| Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies Inc. [489] | March 19–24 | 48% | 43% | 0% | 5 | 825 RV | ±3.5% |
| NBC4 News/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [490] | February 23–25 | 47% | 38% | 3% | 9 | 625 RV | ±4% |
12 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [491] | June 1–30 | 60% | 31% | 29 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [492] | May 1–31 | 58% | 33% | 25 | Not reported | ±4% |
| 7NEWS/Suffolk University [493] | February 20–22 | 57% | 34% | 23 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| WBZ-TV/Boston Globe/KRC Communications Research [494] | November 19–22, 2003 | 56% | 38% | 18 | 400 RV | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack College [495] | September 25–October 5 | 50% | 36% | 2% | 14 | 805 A | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [496] | September 10–13 | 64% | 27% | 4% | 37 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Merrimack College [497] | July 18–28 | 56% | 30% | 3% | 26 | 601 A | ±4.1% |
| 7NEWS/Suffolk University [498] | July 18 | 59% | 30% | 2% | 29 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| University of Massachusetts [499] | May 2–6 | 54% | 30% | 5% | 24 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| University of Massachusetts [500] | March 29–April 5 | 54.2% | 31.5% | 2.2% | 22.7 | 400 LV | ±5% |
17 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [501] | October 29–November 1 | 52% | 46% | 6 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [502] | October 28–30 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 671 LV | ±3.9% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [503] | October 27–29 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [504] | October 25–28 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [505] | October 20–26 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 561 LV | Not reported |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [506] | October 21–24 | 52% | 42% | 10 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [507] | October 18–20 | 51% | 44% | 7 | 668 LV | ±3.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [508] | October 13–19 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [509] | October 15–18 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [510] | October 6–12 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [511] | October 4–6 | 52% | 42% | 10 | 659 LV | ±3.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [512] | September 30–October 5 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [513] | September 23–29 | 46% | 46% | Tied | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Detroit Free Press/Consumer Contact [514] | September 22–28 | 48% | 50% | 2 | 830 RV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [515] | September 17–23 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [516] | September 5–11 | 50% | 45% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [517] | August 27–September 3 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [518] | August 1–26 | 50% | 45% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [519] | August 22–24 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 548 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group [520] | August 17–19 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [521] | August 2–4 | 52% | 41% | 11 | 608 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [522] | July 1–31 | 50% | 44% | 6 | Not reported | ±4% |
| American Research Group [523] | July 6–8 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [524] | June 1–30 | 46% | 44% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [525] | June 28–30 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 594 LV | ±4.1% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [526] | June 22–23 | 44% | 43% | 1 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA [527] | June 2–6 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Republican National Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [528] | June 1–6 | 46.5% | 43.3% | 3.2 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [529] | May 31–June 2 | 47% | 43% | 4 | 567 LV | ±4.3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [530] | May 1–31 | 47% | 41% | 6 | Not reported | ±4% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [531] | April 30–May 2 | 47% | 43% | 4 | 536 LV | ±4.3% |
| WZZM-TV Grand Rapids/WDIV-TV Detroit/SurveyUSA [532] | April 2–4 | 51% | 41% | 10 | 536 LV | ±4.3% |
| EPIC-MRA [533] | March 28–April 1 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [534] | March 14–16 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Inside Michigan Politics/Marketing Resource Group [535] | March 8–14 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| EPIC-MRA [536] | February 22–25 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| SurveyUSA [537] | January 31–February 2 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 724 RV | ±3.7% |
| EPIC-MRA [538] | December 17–23, 2003 | 41% | 51% | 10 | 600 RV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications (Daily Tracking) [539] | October 26–28 | 43% | 41% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications (Daily Tracking) [540] | October 23–25 | 45% | 44% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | Not reported |
| EPIC-MRA [541] | October 18–21 | 49% | 43% | 1% | 6 | 610 LV | ±4% |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications (Daily Tracking) [542] | October 17–19 | 43% | 47% | 1% | 4 | 600 LV | Not reported |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [543] | October 13–18 | 52.6% | 45.9% | 0.4% | 6.7 | 1,228 LV | ±2.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [544] | September 20–October 5 | 54.1% | 44.4% | 0.3% | 9.7 | 1,207 LV | ±2.8% |
| Inside Michigan Politics/Marketing Resource Group [545] | September 20–24 | 45% | 43% | 1% | 2 | 600 RV | ±4.1% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [546] | September 21–22 | 46% | 44% | 1% | 2 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [547] | September 17–21 | 48% | 40% | 1% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| EPIC-MRA [548] | September 15–19 | 48% | 44% | 2% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [549] | September 13–17 | 51.9% | 45.9% | 0.8% | 6 | 1,139 LV | ±2.9% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [550] | September 14–16 | 47% | 41% | 2% | 6 | 629 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [551] | September 10–13 | 50% | 44% | 1% | 6 | 673 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [552] | August 30–September 3 | 52% | 45.4% | 0.7% | 6.6 | 1,098 LV | ±3.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [553] | August 16–21 | 50.5% | 45.3% | 0.7% | 5.2 | 966 LV | ±3.2% |
| American Research Group [554] | August 17–19 | 48% | 45% | 1% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA [555] | August 4–10 | 49% | 42% | 3% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [556] | July 26–30 | 52.1% | 44.6% | 1.2% | 7.5 | 1,022 LV | ±3.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [557] | July 19–23 | 52.6% | 43.9% | 1.3% | 8.7 | 985 LV | ±3.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [558] | July 6–10 | 50% | 44.1% | 1.9% | 5.9 | 863 LV | ±3.3% |
| EPIC-MRA [559] | July 6–8 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [560] | July 6–8 | 50% | 43% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications [561] | June 24–30 | 43% | 44% | 4% | 1 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| Fox News/Opinion Research Corporation [562] | June 22–23 | 40% | 42% | 5% | 2 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [563] | June 15–20 | 46.1% | 46.8% | 2.3% | 0.7 | 916 LV | ±3.2% |
| Los Angeles Times [564] | June 5–8 | 42% | 44% | 4% | 2 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA [565] | June 2–6 | 45% | 43% | 3% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [566] | June 1–6 | 49.1% | 45.1% | 1.1% | 4 | 1,400 LV | ±2.6% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [567] | May 18–23 | 49.5% | 41.2% | 2.4% | 7.3 | 612 LV | ±4.0% |
| Detroit News/Mitchell Research & Communications [568] | May 11–12 | 40% | 44% | 2% | 4 | 413 LV | ±5% |
| EPIC-MRA [569] | March 28–April 1 | 45% | 43% | 3% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Mitchell Research & Communications [570] | February 26–March 1 | 46% | 40% | 4% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [596] | October 28–30 | 52% | 44% | 1% | 8 | 1,078 LV | ±4% |
| Minnesota Star Tribune [597] | October 26–29 | 49% | 41% | 1% | 8 | 996 LV | ±3.5% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [598] | October 15–18 | 45% | 47% | 2% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [599] | October 13–18 | 54.2% | 43.1% | 1.1% | 11.1 | 792 LV | ±3.5% |
| Star Tribune/Market Solutions Group [600] | October 9–11 | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5 | 809 LV | ±3.4% |
| Chicago Tribune/Market Shares Corporation [601] | October 8–11 | 45% | 43% | 2% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [602] | September 30−October 5 | 52.4% | 44.1% | 1.7% | 8.3 | 814 LV | ±3.4% |
| America Coming Together/Hart Research Associates (D) [603] | October 2–4 | 50% | 43% | 1% | 7 | 801 RV | ±3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [604] | September 13–17 | 51.7% | 42% | 3.9% | 9.7 | 730 LV | ±3.6% |
| Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [605] | September 11–14 | 44% | 46% | 1% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [606] | September 11–14 | 45% | 45% | 5% | Tied | 675 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [607] | September 10–12 | 47% | 45% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [608] | August 30–September 3 | 50.3% | 43.5% | 2.8% | 6.8 | 725 LV | ±3.6% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [609] | August 16–21 | 50.3% | 44.6% | 1% | 5.7 | 673 LV | ±3.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [610] | July 26–30 | 51.8% | 43.7% | 1.2% | 8.1 | 652 LV | ±3.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [611] | July 19–23 | 50.6% | 44.2% | 1.7% | 6.4 | 632 LV | ±3.9% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [612] | July 12–14 | 45% | 44% | 1% | 1 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [613] | July 6–10 | 49.3% | 44.1% | 2% | 5.2 | 573 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [614] | June 15–20 | 49.8% | 45.2% | 2.5% | 4.6 | 649 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [615] | June 1–6 | 50.7% | 43.6% | 2.3% | 7.1 | 672 LV | ±3.8% |
| St. Paul Pioneer Press/Minnesota Public Radio/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [616] | May 24–26 | 44% | 41% | 2% | 3 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [617] | May 18–23 | 51.3% | 42% | 3.4% | 9.3 | 928 LV | ±3.2% |
| Star Tribune [618] | March 28–31 | 50% | 38% | 2% | 12 | 562 LV | ±4.1% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [619] | October 21–26 | 44% | 47% | 5% | 1% | 3 | 690 LV | ±4% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [620] | June 21–July 12 | 46.5% | 44.2% | 4.6% | 1% | 2.3 | 589 RV | ±4% |
Eight-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | David Cobb | Roger Calero | Thomas Harens | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Star Tribune/Market Solutions Group [621] | September 7–13 | 50% | 41% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 9 | 1,035 LV | ±3% |
6 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi State University [622] | April 5–21 | 30% | 61.2% | 31.2 | 300 LV | ±5.8% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [623] | September 14–17 | 42% | 51% | 1% | 9 | 600 LV | ±4% |
11 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [646] | October 25–30 | 47.2% | 51.4% | 0.7% | 4.2 | 1,343 LV | ±2.7% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [647] | October 15–18 | 44% | 49% | 0% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [648] | October 13–18 | 47.6% | 50.7% | 1.1% | 3.1 | 1,038 LV | ±3.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [649] | September 30–October 5 | 47.6% | 49.8% | 1.3% | 2.2 | 1,088 LV | ±3.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [650] | September 13–17 | 46.1% | 51.5% | 1.1% | 5.4 | 1,037 LV | ±3.0% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [651] | September 14–16 | 41% | 48% | 1% | 7 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [652] | August 30–September 3 | 48.9% | 48.5% | 1.1% | 0.4 | 1,061 LV | ±3.0% |
| Los Angeles Times [653] | August 21–24 | 42% | 46% | 3% | 4 | 580 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [654] | August 16–21 | 49.3% | 48.8% | 0.9% | 0.5 | 852 LV | ±3.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [655] | July 26–30 | 48.8% | 48.2% | 0.8% | 0.6 | 949 LV | ±3.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [656] | July 19–23 | 48.8% | 48.1% | 1.5% | 0.7 | 959 LV | ±3.1% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [657] | July 19–22 | 47% | 47% | 3% | Tied | 636 LV | ±5% |
| Kansas City Star/Market Research Institute [658] | July 13–20 | 46% | 44% | 1% | 2 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [659] | July 6–10 | 50.1% | 46.8% | 0.7% | 3.3 | 849 LV | ±3.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [660] | June 15–20 | 47.9% | 48.6% | 1% | 0.7 | 989 LV | ±3.1% |
| Los Angeles Times [661] | June 5–8 | 37% | 48% | 5% | 11 | 566 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [662] | June 1–6 | 47.6% | 48.6% | 0.9% | 1 | 1,342 LV | ±2.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [663] | May 18–23 | 47.2% | 43.9% | 2.1% | 3.3 | 520 LV | ±4.3% |
| Suffolk University [664] | February 28–March 2 | 39% | 50% | 5% | 11 | 420 LV | Not reported |
3 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billings Gazette/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [665] | December 8–10, 2003 | 26% | 58% | 32 | 625 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Newspapers/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [666] | October 18–20 | 36% | 57% | 1% | 21 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Lee Newspapers/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [667] | September 20–22 | 36% | 54% | 2% | 18 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [668] | September 7–9 | 32% | 60% | 3% | 28 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Lee Newspapers/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [669] | May 24–26 | 33% | 53% | 6% | 20 | 625 RV | ±4% |
Six-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | David Cobb | Michael Badnarik | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings [670] | October 7–10 | 34.3% | 55.3% | 2.2% | 0% | 0% | 0.7% | 21 | 411 LV | ±5% |
5 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omaha World-Herald/RKM Research Communications [671] | October 15–20 | 32% | 61% | 29 | 1,007 LV | ±3.1% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [672] | September 9–12 | 30% | 61% | 2% | 31 | 600 LV | ±4% |
1st congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omaha World-Herald/RKM Research Communications [673] | October 15–20 | 34% | 57% | 23 | Not reported | ±6.2% |
2nd congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omaha World-Herald/RKM Research Communications [674] | October 15–20 | 36% | 57% | 21 | Not reported | ±4.4% |
3rd congressional district
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omaha World-Herald/RKM Research Communications [675] | October 15–20 | 25% | 68% | 43 | Not reported | ±6.2% |
5 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA [676] | October 30–November 1 | 45% | 53% | 8 | 636 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [677] | October 29–November 1 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA [678] | October 28–29 | 49% | 49% | Tied | 535 LV | ±4.3% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [679] | October 27–29 | 44% | 50% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [680] | October 25–28 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4.1% |
| Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [681] | October 21–24 | 44% | 48% | 4 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [682] | October 23 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA [683] | October 16–18 | 45% | 52% | 7 | 585 LV | ±4.1% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA [684] | October 1–3 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [685] | September 18–21 | 43% | 52% | 9 | 534 LV | ±5% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA [686] | September 11–13 | 47% | 54% | 4 | 526 LV | ±4.4% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA [687] | August 14–16 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 520 LV | ±4.4% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA [688] | July 20–22 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 801 LV | ±3.5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [689] | June 1–6 | 45.4% | 46.1% | 0.7 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| KVBC-TV Las Vegas/SurveyUSA [690] | February 11–12 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 505 RV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [691] | October 15–18 | 42% | 52% | 1% | N/A | 10 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [692] | October 13–18 | 45.9% | 49.8% | 0.4% | N/A | 3.9 | 516 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [693] | September 30–October 5 | 48.1% | 47.1% | 0.9% | N/A | 1 | 519 LV | ±4.3% |
| Las Vegas Sun/KLAS-TV Channel 8/KNPR Nevada Public Radio/Belden Russonello & Stewart [694] | September 20−28 | 44% | 48% | 2% | N/A | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) [695] | September 23 | 46% | 47% | N/A | 3% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [696] | September 13–17 | 46.6% | 48.8% | 1.2% | N/A | 2.2 | 499 LV | ±4.4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [697] | September 13–14 | 45% | 50% | 1% | N/A | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [698] | September 12–14 | 45% | 47% | 1% | N/A | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [699] | August 30–September 3 | 47.4% | 46.8% | 1.6% | N/A | 0.6 | 564 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [700] | August 16–21 | 47.7% | 46% | 2.3% | N/A | 1.7 | 501 LV | ±4.4% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) [701] | August 15/16 | 46% | 47% | N/A | 3% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [702] | July 26–30 | 45.4% | 46% | 1.1% | N/A | 0.6 | 505 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [703] | July 19–23 | 46.8% | 46.2% | 0.6% | N/A | 0.6 | 503 LV | ±4.4% |
| Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [704] | July 20–22 | 43% | 46% | 4% | N/A | 3 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [705] | July 6–10 | 43.3% | 45.1% | 5.9% | N/A | 1.8 | 513 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [706] | June 15–20 | 44.8% | 47.3% | 4.4% | N/A | 2.5 | 512 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [707] | June 1–6 | 47.3% | 43.8% | 2% | N/A | 3.5 | 472 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [708] | May 18–23 | 47.3% | 43.5% | 2.8% | N/A | 3.8 | 532 LV | ±4.3% |
| Las Vegas Review-Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [709] | March 15–17 | 38% | 49% | 4% | N/A | 11 | 625 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Sun/KLAS-TV Channel 8/KNPR Nevada Public Radio/Belden Russonello & Stewart [710] | October 16–19 | 43% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
5 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [711] | October 30–November 1 | 49% | 49% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [712] | October 27–29 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [713] | October 16–18 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [714] | October 3–5 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| America Coming Together/Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D) [715] | September 20–23 | 47% | 47% | Tied | Not reported | ±5% |
| American Research Group [716] | August 3–5 | 50% | 43% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [717] | July 19–21 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire [718] | July 6–20 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 459 LV | ±4.5% |
| Becker Institute [719] | June 18–20 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 401 RV | ±4.8% |
| American Research Group [720] | June 7–9 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [721] | June 1–6 | 45.3% | 44.7% | 0.6 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| University of New Hampshire [722] | April 19–26 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 491 LV | ±4.4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [723] | April 21 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group [724] | March 30–April 1 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [725] | March 15–18 | 45% | 47% | 2 | 463 RV | ±4.6% |
| University of New Hampshire [726] | February 4–12 | 53% | 38% | 15 | 464 RV | Not reported |
| University of New Hampshire [727] | September 30–October 7, 2003 | 38% | 49% | 11 | 498 A | ±4.4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [728] | October 30–November 1 | 48% | 49% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire (Daily Tracking) [729] | October 28–30 | 49% | 48% | 2% | 1 | 716 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [730] | October 25–30 | 50.2% | 45.7% | 1% | 4.5 | 631 LV | ±3.9% |
| Franklin Pierce College [731] | October 25–27 | 50.1% | 42.5% | 1% | 7.6 | 621 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire (Daily Tracking) [732] | October 25–27 | 50% | 46% | 1% | 4 | 758 LV | ±3.6% |
| Franklin Pierce College [733] | October 18–21 | 50.1% | 41.3% | 1.3% | 8.8 | 453 LV | ±4.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [734] | October 18 | 49% | 47% | 1% | 2 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group [735] | October 16–18 | 46% | 47% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [736] | October 13–18 | 51.1% | 46% | 1.1% | 5.1 | 510 LV | ±4.3% |
| 7NEWS/Suffolk University [737] | October 14–17 | 46% | 41% | 1% | 5 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [738] | October 14–16 | 45% | 48% | 1% | 3 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [739] | October 3–5 | 47% | 47% | 1% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [740] | September 30–October 5 | 50.5% | 43.9% | 1.7% | 6.6 | 576 LV | ±4.1% |
| Franklin Pierce College [741] | October 3–4 | 49.1% | 42.3% | 1.1% | 6.8 | 617 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire [742] | September 27–October 3 | 45% | 50% | 1% | 5 | 521 LV | ±4.3% |
| Becker Institute [743] | October 2 | 49% | 43% | 2% | 6 | 397 RV | Not reported |
| American Research Group [744] | September 15–17 | 45% | 47% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [745] | September 13–17 | 48.1% | 44.5% | 1.6% | 3.6 | 538 LV | ±4.2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [746] | September 15 | 51% | 45% | 3% | 6 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [747] | September 13–15 | 40% | 49% | 3% | 9 | 624 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [748] | August 30–September 3 | 49.5% | 44.8% | 1.2% | 4.7 | 553 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [749] | August 16–21 | 50.5% | 43.3% | 1.4% | 7.2 | 512 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group [750] | August 3–5 | 49% | 42% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [751] | July 26–30 | 50.7% | 41.8% | 2.3% | 8.9 | 552 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [752] | July 19–23 | 47.3% | 42.7% | 3.1% | 4.6 | 548 LV | ±4.2% |
| American Research Group [753] | July 19–21 | 47% | 45% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WMUR/University of New Hampshire [754] | July 6–20 | 47% | 43% | 4% | 4 | 459 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [755] | July 6–10 | 49.3% | 40.3% | 0.8% | 9 | 527 LV | ±4.3% |
| Becker Institute [756] | June 18–20 | 44% | 45% | 4% | 1 | 401 RV | ±4.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [757] | June 15–20 | 46.2% | 42.9% | 1.7% | 3.3 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| American Research Group [758] | June 7–9 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [759] | June 1–6 | 48.7% | 44.4% | 1.7% | 4.3 | 503 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [760] | May 18–23 | 49.5% | 39.9% | 2.2% | 9.6 | 521 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group [761] | March 30–April 1 | 43% | 48% | 3% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [762] | March 15–18 | 39% | 45% | 8% | 6 | 463 RV | ±4.6% |
15 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University [795] | October 27–31 | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5 | 984 LV | ±3.1% |
| Quinnipiac University [796] | October 21–25 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 852 LV | ±3.4% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) [797] | October 13–21 | 49% | 41% | 1% | 8 | 503 LV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [798] | October 14–17 | 49% | 45% | 1% | 4 | 786 LV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [799] | October 1–4 | 49% | 46% | 2% | 3 | 819 LV | ±3.4% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) [800] | September 23–28 | 45% | 44% | 2% | 1 | 489 LV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [801] | September 16–19 | 48% | 48% | 2% | Tied | 672 LV | ±3.8% |
| American Research Group [802] | September 13–16 | 50% | 42% | 1% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| The Star-Ledger/Rutgers University [803] | September 3–7 | 43% | 39% | 5% | 4 | 738 RV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [804] | August 19–23 | 49% | 39% | 4% | 10 | 887 RV | ±3.3% |
| Quinnipiac University [805] | July 30–August 2 | 49% | 36% | 6% | 13 | 996 RV | ±3.1% |
| The Star-Ledger/Rutgers University [806] | July 30 | 52% | 32% | 6% | 20 | 624 RV | ±4% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) [807] | July 20–26 | 42% | 41% | 6% | 1 | 834 RV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [808] | June 15–20 | 46% | 40% | 7% | 6 | 1,167 RV | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University [809] | May 10–16 | 46% | 43% | 5% | 3 | 1,122 RV | ±2.9% |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) [810] | April 3–10 | 44% | 48% | 5% | 4 | 802 RV | ±3.5% |
5 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [811] | October 29–November 1 | 51% | 48% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [812] | October 27–30 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Santa Fe New Mexican/KOB-TV/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [813] | October 27–29 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [814] | October 25–28 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [815] | October 21–24 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [816] | October 16–18 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Santa Fe New Mexican/KOB-TV/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [817] | October 15–18 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [818] | August 17–19 | 52% | 42% | 10 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [819] | July 6–8 | 51% | 43% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [820] | June 1–6 | 47.1% | 43.7% | 3.4 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| American Research Group [821] | March 30–April 1 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [822] | October 27–30 | 48% | 47% | 1% | N/A | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [823] | October 16–18 | 48% | 46% | 1% | N/A | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [824] | October 13–18 | 53.6% | 44.1% | 1% | N/A | 9.5 | 526 LV | ±4.3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [825] | October 3–6 | 47% | 50% | 2% | N/A | 3 | 673 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [826] | September 30–October 5 | 53.9% | 42.5% | 1.7% | N/A | 11.4 | 541 LV | ±4.2% |
| America Coming Together/Hart Research Associates (D) [827] | October 2–4 | 49% | 45% | 1% | N/A | 4 | 802 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [828] | September 13–17 | 54.3% | 41.6% | 2.2% | N/A | 12.7 | 576 LV | ±4.1% |
| Santa Fe New Mexican/KOB-TV/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [829] | September 15–16 | 43% | 47% | 2% | N/A | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [830] | September 14–16 | 49% | 44% | 1% | N/A | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [831] | August 30–September 3 | 53.6% | 43.9% | 1.1% | N/A | 9.7 | 546 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [832] | August 16–21 | 49.7% | 44.1% | 0.7% | N/A | 5.6 | 507 LV | ±4.4% |
| American Research Group [833] | August 17–19 | 49% | 42% | 2% | N/A | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) [834] | August 15 | 46% | 46% | N/A | 4% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) [835] | August 4 | 50% | 43% | N/A | 5% | 7 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [836] | July 26–30 | 49.1% | 47.6% | 0.5% | N/A | 1.5 | 505 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [837] | July 19–23 | 52% | 42.2% | 0.9% | N/A | 9.8 | 499 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [838] | July 6–10 | 49.4% | 42.1% | 2.9% | N/A | 7.3 | 516 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group [839] | July 6–8 | 49% | 42% | 3% | N/A | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [840] | June 15–20 | 50.1% | 43.2% | 1.4% | N/A | 6.9 | 505 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [841] | June 1–6 | 47.7% | 48.1% | 2.1% | N/A | 0.4 | 558 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [842] | May 18–23 | 48.4% | 43.3% | 2.9% | N/A | 5.1 | 454 LV | ±4.6% |
| American Research Group [843] | March 30–April 1 | 45% | 46% | 3% | N/A | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc. [844] | October 26–29 | 44% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 3 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) [845] | October 26 | 44% | 48% | 2% | 1% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc. [846] | August 27–September 1 | 42% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 3 | 908 LV | ±3% |
Five-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | David Cobb | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque Journal/Research & Polling Inc. [847] | October 1–4 | 46% | 43% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 3 | 872 LV | ±3% |
31 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WABC-TV New York City/WRGB-TV Albany/WGRZ-TV Buffalo/SurveyUSA [848] | October 26–28 | 57% | 39% | 18 | 628 LV | ±4% |
| Siena College [849] | October 25–28 | 52% | 37% | 15 | 1,062 LV | ±3.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [850] | October 16–22 | 57% | 36% | 21 | Not reported | ±3% |
| WABC-TV New York City/WRGB-TV Albany/WGRZ-TV Buffalo/SurveyUSA [851] | October 9–11 | 58% | 35% | 23 | 606 LV | ±4.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [852] | September 19–25 | 53% | 41% | 12 | Not reported | ±3% |
| WABC-TV New York City/WRGB-TV Albany/WGRZ-TV Buffalo/SurveyUSA [853] | September 18–20 | 55% | 39% | 16 | 582 LV | ±4.2% |
| Quinnipiac University [854] | September 7–12 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 1,438 RV | ±2.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [855] | August 1–26 | 56% | 37% | 19 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University [856] | August 3–9 | 55% | 35% | 20 | 1,161 RV | ±2.9% |
| Siena College [857] | July 12–15 | 51% | 29% | 22 | 604 RV | ±4.0% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [858] | June 1–30 | 58% | 30% | 28 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University [859] | June 9–14 | 55% | 36% | 19 | 1,466 RV | ±2.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [860] | May 1–31 | 57% | 34% | 23 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Marist College [861] | April 13–15 | 56% | 38% | 18 | 602 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [862] | April 5–12 | 53% | 36% | 17 | 1,279 RV | ±2.7% |
| Quinnipiac University [863] | October 29–November 3, 2003 | 50% | 42% | 8 | 1,304 RV | ±2.7% |
| Quinnipiac University [864] | September 23–29, 2003 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 1,201 RV | ±2.8% |
| Quinnipiac University [865] | June 18–23, 2003 | 43% | 48% | 5 | 1,095 RV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University [866] | April 15–21, 2003 | 38% | 50% | 12 | 885 RV | ±3.3% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College [867] | October 25–26 | 57% | 39% | 1% | 18 | 636 LV | ±4% |
| Siena College [868] | September 20–23 | 51% | 31% | 2% | 20 | 1,121 LV | ±2.9% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [869] | September 12–18 | 49% | 44% | 2% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group [870] | September 14–16 | 52% | 40% | 1% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Marist College [871] | September 13–14 | 52% | 41% | 3% | 11 | 584 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [872] | September 7–12 | 47% | 41% | 4% | 6 | 1,438 RV | ±2.6% |
| Quinnipiac University [873] | August 3–9 | 53% | 35% | 4% | 18 | 1,161 RV | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University [874] | June 9–14 | 52% | 34% | 7% | 18 | 1,466 RV | ±2.6% |
| Siena College [875] | April 19–22 | 51% | 32% | 1% | 19 | 625 RV | ±3.9% |
| Marist College [876] | April 13–15 | 54% | 37% | 5% | 17 | 602 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [877] | April 5–12 | 49% | 35% | 6% | 14 | 1,279 RV | ±2.7% |
15 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| League of Conservation Voters/Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) [905] | July 19–22 | 44% | 48% | 3% | N/A | 4 | 600 LV | ±4.0% |
| WRAL-Winston-Salem Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [906] | July 12–13 | 45% | 48% | N/A | 0% | 3 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [907] | July 9–11 | 39% | 54% | 4% | N/A | 15 | 680 LV | ±5% |
| WRAL/Winston-Salem Journal/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [908] | May 14–17 | 41% | 48% | 3% | N/A | 7 | 625 RV | ±4% |
3 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Forum/WDAY-TV/Minnesota State University Moorhead [909] | October 18–19 | 35% | 55% | >1% | 20 | 623 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [910] | September 9–12 | 33% | 62% | 1% | 29 | 600 LV | ±4% |
20 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [911] | October 29–November 1 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [912] | October 30–31 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 700 LV | ±3.7% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA [913] | October 29–31 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 816 LV | ±3.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [914] | October 28–31 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 1,111 LV | ±3% |
| University of Cincinnati [915] | October 27–31 | 49.2% | 50.1% | 0.9 | 877 LV | ±3.3% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [916] | October 27–29 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [917] | October 25–28 | 47% | 44% | 3 | 601 LV | ±4% |
| Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [918] | October 26–28 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 1,500 LV | ±2.6% |
| Los Angeles Times [919] | October 22–26 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 585 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [920] | October 20–26 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 537 LV | ±4% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA [921] | October 23–25 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 831 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [922] | October 23–25 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [923] | October 21–24 | 42% | 47% | 5 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Ohio University [924] | October 17–21 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 358 LV | ±5.3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [925] | October 18–20 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 706 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [926] | October 17–18 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA [927] | October 16–18 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 698 LV | ±3.8% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [928] | October 15–18 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [929] | October 12–18 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 537 LV | ±4% |
| ABC News [930] | October 14–17 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 789 LV | ±3.5% |
| University of Cincinnati [931] | October 11–17 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 757 LV | ±3.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [932] | October 7–13 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 564 LV | ±4% |
| Chicago Tribune/Market Shares Corporation [933] | October 8–11 | 49% | 45% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| American Research Group [934] | October 4–6 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA [935] | October 2–4 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 761 LV | ±3.6% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [936] | September 25–October 2 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 597 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [937] | September 25–28 | 48% | 50% | 2 | 664 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [938] | September 17–23 | 45% | 48% | 3 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [939] | September 21–22 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [940] | September 12–18 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 668 LV | ±4% |
| WCPO-TV Cincinnati/WKYC-TV Cleveland/SurveyUSA [941] | September 6–8 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 709 LV | ±3.8% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [942] | September 3–7 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 661 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [943] | August 1–26 | 48% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times [944] | August 21–24 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 507 RV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [945] | August 13–15 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 628 LV | ±5% |
| American Research Group [946] | August 9–11 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [947] | July 1–31 | 46% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| American Research Group [948] | July 20–22 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [949] | July 19–22 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 639 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [950] | June 1–30 | 42% | 46% | 4 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [951] | June 22–23 | 43% | 47% | 4 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [952] | June 21–23 | 50% | 44% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [953] | June 1–6 | 43.7% | 47.1% | 3.4 | 1,200 LV | ±2.83% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [954] | May 1–31 | 44% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| American Research Group [955] | May 10–12 | 50% | 43% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Columbus Dispatch [956] | March 23–31 | 45% | 46% | 1 | 3,344 RV | ±2% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [957] | March 14–16 | 45% | 41% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [958] | October 18–20 | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1 | 706 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [959] | October 17–18 | 45% | 47% | 3% | 2 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [960] | October 13–18 | 47.6% | 50.6% | 0.4% | 3 | 2,024 LV | ±2.0% |
| American Research Group [961] | October 4–6 | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [962] | September 30–October 5 | 49.1% | 48.8% | 0.4% | 0.3 | 1,844 LV | ±2.3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [963] | September 25–28 | 47% | 49% | 1% | 2 | 664 LV | ±4% |
| America Coming Together/Lake Snell Perry (D) [964] | September 19–23 | 46% | 46% | 1% | Tied | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [965] | September 21–22 | 44% | 48% | 2% | 4 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [966] | September 17–20 | 46% | 48% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| University of Cincinnati [967] | September 12–18 | 43% | 54% | 1% | 11 | 456 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [968] | September 13–17 | 46.8% | 50.1% | 0.3% | 3.3 | 1,718 LV | ±2.4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [969] | September 14–15 | 42% | 49% | 2% | 7 | 624 LV | ±4% |
| Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [970] | September 10–14 | 42% | 50% | 2% | 8 | 1,500 LV | ±2.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [971] | September 3–7 | 43% | 52% | 2% | 9 | 661 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [972] | August 30–September 3 | 42.9% | 53.8% | 0.5% | 10.9 | 1,714 LV | ±2.4% |
| Columbus Dispatch [973] | August 18–27 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 3,176 LV | ±2% |
| Los Angeles Times [974] | August 21–24 | 43% | 46% | 3% | 3 | 507 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [975] | August 16–21 | 45.8% | 51.4% | 0.8% | 5.6 | 1,392 LV | ±2.6% |
| University of Cincinnati [976] | August 11–17 | 48% | 46% | 1% | 2 | 812 LV | ±3.4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [977] | August 13–15 | 47% | 45% | 4% | 2 | 628 LV | ±5% |
| American Research Group [978] | August 9–11 | 48% | 45% | 2% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [979] | July 26–30 | 46.1% | 51.1% | 1% | 5 | 1,571 LV | ±2.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [980] | July 19–23 | 46.8% | 48.1% | 1.2% | 1.3 | 1,464 LV | ±2.6% |
| Columbus Dispatch [981] | July 14–23 | 44% | 47% | 2% | 3 | 3,047 RV | ±2% |
| American Research Group [982] | July 20–22 | 47% | 45% | 3% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [983] | July 19–22 | 48% | 43% | 5% | 5 | 639 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [984] | July 6–10 | 48.6% | 47.9% | 0.8% | 0.7 | 1,321 LV | ±2.7% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [985] | June 22–23 | 41% | 45% | 4% | 4 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [986] | June 21–23 | 49% | 43% | 2% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [987] | June 15–20 | 45.1% | 50.5% | 0.9% | 5.4 | 1,552 LV | ±2.5% |
| Los Angeles Times [988] | June 5–8 | 45% | 42% | 4% | 3 | 722 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [989] | June 1–6 | 46.3% | 49.1% | 1.2% | 2.8 | 2,231 LV | ±2.8% |
| Plain Dealer/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [990] | May 20–25 | 41% | 47% | 3% | 6 | 1,500 RV | ±2.6% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [991] | May 18–23 | 49.4% | 44.8% | 0.9% | 4.6 | 579 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [992] | May 10–12 | 49% | 42% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Columbus Dispatch [993] | March 23–31 | 43% | 45% | 3% | 2 | 3,344 RV | ±2% |
| University of Cincinnati [994] | March 10–22 | 46% | 44% | 5% | 2 | 632 RV | ±3.9% |
Five-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Michael Peroutka | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Dispatch [995] | September 22–October 1 | 44% | 51% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 7 | 2,859 RV | ±2% |
7 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Marketing Workshop/InsiderAdvantage [1022] | March 31–April 1 | 35% | 47% | 2% | 12 | 400 A | ±5% |
7 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1044] | October 25–30 | 53.9% | 43.8% | 0.5% | 10.1 | 1,125 LV | ±3.0% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1045] | October 13–18 | 55.7% | 42.6% | 0.3% | 13.1 | 890 LV | ±3.3% |
| Riley Research Associates [1046] | October 9–13 | 43% | 48% | 1% | 5 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| American Research Group [1047] | October 9–12 | 49% | 44% | 2% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1048] | September 30–October 5 | 53.8% | 43.7% | 1.2% | 10.1 | 925 LV | ±3.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1049] | September 13–17 | 53.9% | 41.9% | 1.7% | 12 | 809 LV | ±3.5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1050] | September 14–16 | 43% | 47% | 1% | 4 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [1051] | September 10–13 | 47% | 45% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1052] | August 30–September 3 | 52.8% | 43.1% | 1.6% | 9.7 | 787 LV | ±3.5% |
| The Oregonian/Riley Research Associates [1053] | August 26–September 1 | 45% | 46% | 1% | 1 | 507 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1054] | August 16–21 | 53.9% | 42.6% | 1.5% | 11.3 | 708 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1055] | July 26–30 | 49.9% | 45.9% | 2% | 4 | 644 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1056] | July 19–23 | 52% | 42.8% | 1.1% | 9.2 | 637 LV | ±3.9% |
| American Research Group [1057] | July 19–22 | 50% | 42% | 4% | 8 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1058] | July 6–10 | 51.6% | 42.4% | 2.3% | 9.2 | 575 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1059] | June 15–20 | 50.9% | 44.3% | 1.2% | 6.6 | 638 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1060] | June 1–6 | 50.5% | 44.6% | 1% | 5.9 | 666 LV | ±3.8% |
| Moore Information [1061] | May 31–June 1 | 44% | 39% | 4% | 5 | 500 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1062] | May 18–23 | 49.7% | 44.3% | 2.9% | 5.4 | 933 LV | ±3.2% |
| American Research Group [1063] | May 3–5 | 45% | 45% | 5% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1064] | April 25 | 43% | 43% | 8% | Tied | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| The Oregonian/Davis, Hibbitts, & Midghall [1065] | March 4 | 45% | 40% | 5% | 5 | 400 RV | ±5% |
21 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1066] | October 31–November 1 | 49% | 48% | 1 | 657 LV | ±3.9% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [1067] | October 29–November 1 | 50% | 46% | 4 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1068] | October 29–31 | 51% | 47% | 4 | 766 LV | ±3.6% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1069] | October 28–31 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 1,082 LV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University [1070] | October 27–31 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 1,022 LV | ±3.1% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [1071] | October 25–31 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1072] | October 27–29 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [1073] | October 25–28 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| WHYY/West Chester University [1074] | October 23–27 | 49.9% | 44.6% | 5.3 | 684 LV | ±3.7% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer/Temple University [1075] | October 22–27 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 1,488 LV | ±3% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1076] | October 23–26 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 670 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1077] | October 22–26 | 47% | 49% | 2 | 909 LV | ±3.3% |
| Los Angeles Times [1078] | October 22–26 | 48% | 48% | Tied | 585 LV | ±4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1079] | October 23–25 | 53% | 45% | 8 | 803 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [1080] | October 23–25 | 50% | 47% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [1081] | October 21–24 | 47% | 45% | 2 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| Franklin & Marshall College [1082] | October 19–23 | 51% | 46% | 5 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [1083] | October 17–23 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 424 LV | ±4% |
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College [1084] | October 17–22 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 787 RV | ±3.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [1085] | October 16–20 | 51% | 46% | 5 | 841 LV | ±3.4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1086] | October 15–18 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1087] | October 15–17 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 619 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [1088] | October 6–12 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 578 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1089] | October 9–11 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,343 LV | ±2.7% |
| American Research Group [1090] | October 4–6 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1091] | October 3–5 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 776 LV | ±3.6% |
| WHYY/West Chester University [1092] | October 1–4 | 50.3% | 43% | 7.3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [1093] | September 25–October 1 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 578 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1094] | September 25–28 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 654 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1095] | September 22–26 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 726 LV | ±3.6% |
| Philadelphia Inquirer/Temple University [1096] | September 17–24 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 1,133 LV | ±3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (Daily Tracking) [1097] | September 17–23 | 46% | 47% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1098] | September 10–16 | 48% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Franklin & Marshall College [1099] | September 8–15 | 49% | 49% | Tied | Not reported | Not reported |
| Quinnipiac University [1100] | September 11–14 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 792 LV | ±3.5% |
| ABC News [1101] | September 9–12 | 48% | 49% | 1 | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1102] | September 6–12 | 48% | 49% | 1 | 526 LV | ±4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1103] | September 7–9 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 697 LV | ±3.8% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1104] | September 4–7 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 718 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1105] | August 23–26 | 47% | 48% | 1 | 729 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1106] | August 1–26 | 49% | 45% | 4 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1107] | August 11–16 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 1,430 RV | ±2.6% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1108] | July 30–August 2 | 53% | 41% | 12 | 748 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1109] | July 1–31 | 46% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times [1110] | July 19–21 | 51% | 39% | 12 | 815 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1111] | July 6–11 | 49% | 42% | 7 | 1,577 RV | ±2.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1112] | June 1–30 | 48% | 43% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [1113] | June 22–23 | 44% | 47% | 3 | 700 RV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1114] | June 17–23 | 48% | 43% | 5 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1115] | June 21–22 | 49% | 43% | 6 | 839 RV | ±3.4% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1116] | July 7–9 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 684 LV | ±3.8% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [1117] | June 1–6 | 47.1% | 45.6% | 1.5 | 1,200 LV | ±2.83% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1118] | May 1–31 | 44% | 45% | 1 | Not reported | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1119] | May 24–25 | 45% | 42% | 3 | 701 RV | ±3.7% |
| Morning Call/Muhlenberg College [1120] | May 5–14 | 48% | 43% | 5 | 400 RV | ±4.9% |
| Bennett, Petts & Associates (D) [1121] | May 2–3 | 49% | 43% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1122] | April 13–19 | 42% | 46% | 4 | 769 RV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1123] | March 14–16 | 46% | 45% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Quinnipiac University [1124] | March 9–15 | 45% | 44% | 1 | 1,022 RV | ±3.1% |
| KDKA-TV Pittsburgh/WCAU-TV Philadelphia/WNEP-TV Wilkes-Barre/SurveyUSA [1125] | March 8–10 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 802 RV | ±3.5% |
| Mansfield University [1126] | February 15–March 3 | 46.7% | 44.9% | 1.8 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Franklin & Marshall College [1127] | February 19–22 | 47% | 46% | 1 | 532 RV | ±4.2% |
| Quinnipiac University [1128] | February 10–16 | 50% | 45% | 5 | 1,356 RV | ±2.7% |
| Quinnipiac University [1129] | December 11–14 | 42% | 50% | 8 | 1,092 RV | ±3% |
| Quinnipiac University [1130] | October 9–13, 2003 | 43% | 50% | 7 | 1,116 RV | ±2.9% |
| Quinnipiac University [1131] | July 30–August 4, 2003 | 37% | 55% | 18 | 1,037 RV | ±3% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1132] | October 13–18 | 51.8% | 46.1% | 0.4% | 5.7 | 1,402 LV | ±2.6% |
| American Research Group [1133] | October 4–6 | 48% | 46% | 1% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1134] | September 30–October 5 | 51.8% | 46.4% | 0.2% | 5.4 | 1,379 LV | ±2.6% |
| Franklin & Marshall College [1135] | September 30–October 4 | 49% | 43% | 3% | 6 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Pittsburgh Post-Gazette/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1136] | September 27–28 | 45% | 44% | 2% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1137] | September 25–28 | 46% | 49% | 1% | 3 | 654 LV | ±4% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [1138] | September 21–22 | 48% | 45% | 1% | 3 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [1139] | September 15–19 | 47% | 46% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1140] | September 13–17 | 50.6% | 47.5% | 0.1% | 3.1 | 1,185 LV | ±2.9% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1141] | September 14–16 | 45% | 44% | 1% | 1 | 624 LV | ±4% |
| ABC News [1142] | September 9–12 | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3 | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1143] | August 30–September 3 | 49.5% | 46.7% | 1% | 2.8 | 1,090 LV | ±3.0% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1144] | August 23–26 | 47% | 47% | 2% | Tied | 729 LV | ±5% |
| IssuesPA/Pew Charitable Trusts/Princeton Survey Research International [1145] | August 13–21 | 44% | 45% | 3% | 1 | 861 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1146] | August 16–21 | 52.3% | 44% | 1% | 8.3 | 901 LV | ±3.3% |
| Quinnipiac University [1147] | August 11–16 | 47% | 42% | 4% | 5 | 1,430 RV | ±2.6% |
| Franklin & Marshall College [1148] | August 2–15 | 48% | 42% | 3% | 6 | 600 RV | ±3.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1149] | July 26–30 | 52.7% | 44.7% | 0.7% | 8 | 932 LV | ±3.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1150] | July 19–23 | 51.8% | 45.3% | 0.9% | 6.5 | 881 LV | ±3.3% |
| Los Angeles Times [1151] | July 19–21 | 48% | 38% | 5% | 10 | 815 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1152] | July 6–11 | 46% | 41% | 5% | 5 | 1,577 RV | ±2.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1153] | July 6–10 | 52.2% | 44.9% | 0.9% | 7.3 | 742 LV | ±3.6% |
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [1154] | June 22–23 | 41% | 46% | 3% | 5 | 750 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1155] | June 21–22 | 44% | 43% | 7% | 1 | 839 RV | ±3.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1156] | June 15–20 | 51.7% | 44.7% | 1.5% | 7 | 834 LV | ±3.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1157] | June 1–6 | 51.5% | 44.9% | 0.7% | 6.6 | 723 LV | ±3.6% |
| Quinnipiac University [1158] | May 24–25 | 44% | 41% | 6% | 3 | 701 RV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1159] | May 18–23 | 50.8% | 42.6% | 1.8% | 8.2 | 655 LV | ±3.8% |
| IssuesPA/Pew Charitable Trusts/Princeton Survey Research International [1160] | April 16–25 | 42% | 42% | 5% | Tied | 867 RV | ±4% |
| Quinnipiac University [1161] | April 13–19 | 39% | 45% | 8% | 6 | 769 RV | ±3.5% |
| Franklin & Marshall College [1162] | March 25–29 | 40% | 46% | 3% | 6 | 565 RV | ±4.1% |
| Quinnipiac University [1163] | March 9–15 | 40% | 44% | 7% | 4 | 1,022 RV | ±3.1% |
4 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WLNE-TV Providence/SurveyUSA [1164] | October 25–27 | 54% | 31% | 13 | 594 LV | ±4.1% |
| WLNE-TV Providence/SurveyUSA [1165] | October 9–11 | 56% | 36% | 20 | 603 LV | ±4.1% |
| WLNE-TV Providence/SurveyUSA [1166] | September 18–20 | 55% | 37% | 18 | 705 LV | ±3.8% |
| Brown University [1167] | February 7–9 | 53% | 31% | 22 | 455 RV | ±5% |
| Brown University [1168] | September 13–15, 2003 | 39% | 36% | 3 | 367 RV | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [1169] | September 11–13 | 58% | 30% | 4% | 28 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Brown University [1170] | June 12–14 | 49% | 25% | 5% | 24 | 477 RV | ±5% |
8 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [1190] | September 14–16 | 40% | 52% | 1% | 12 | 600 LV | ±4% |
3 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1191] | October 25 | 42% | 54% | 12 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1192] | October 19–21 | 36% | 55% | 19 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1193] | October 12 | 42% | 52% | 10 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1194] | September 29 | 40% | 52% | 12 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| September 8 | 41% | 54% | 13 | 500 LV | ±4.5% | |
| KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1195] | February 5–7 | 39% | 50% | 11 | 800 RV | ±3.5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Republican Senatorial Committee/McLaughlin & Associates (R) [1196] | October 21, 24 | 32.5% | 54.5% | 1.5% | 22 | 400 LV | ±4.9% |
| Rapid City Journal/KOTA-TV Rapid City/KSFY-TV Sioux Falls/Mitchell Daily Republic/Watertown Public Opinion/Zogby International [1197] | September 24–28 | 29% | 57% | 2% | 28 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1198] | September 20–22 | 37% | 50% | 2% | 13 | 800 LV | ±3.5% |
| American Research Group [1199] | September 8–12 | 39% | 58% | 1% | 19 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| KOTA-TV/Zogby International [1200] | May 19–21 | 34% | 48% | 6% | 14 | 500 LV | ±4% |
| KELOLAND-TV/Argus Leader/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1201] | May 10–14 | 35% | 51% | 4% | 16 | 800 RV | ±3.5% |
11 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA [1202] | October 28–30 | 40% | 58% | 18 | 629 LV | ±4% |
| University of Tennessee [1203] | October 7–20 | 37% | 54% | 17 | 656 RV | ±3.8% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA [1204] | October 17–19 | 38% | 60% | 22 | 615 LV | ±4% |
| Middle Tennessee State University [1205] | October 4–15 | 39% | 50% | 11 | 624 A | ±4% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA [1206] | October 3–5 | 39% | 58% | 19 | 637 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1207] | September 16–29 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA [1208] | September 20–22 | 41% | 55% | 14 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA [1209] | July 31–August 2 | 46% | 48% | 2 | 586 LV | ±4.2% |
| WBIR-TV Knoxville/SurveyUSA [1210] | June 19–21 | 41% | 51% | 10 | 700 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1211] | June 16 | 41% | 49% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [1212] | June 1–6 | 41.6% | 52.3% | 10.7 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| SurveyUSA [1213] | March 20–22 | 41% | 52% | 11 | 678 LV | ±3.9% |
| Middle Tennessee State University [1214] | February 16–28 | 44% | 48% | 4 | 701 A | ±4% |
| The Tennessean/Chattanooga Times Free Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1215] | January 28–29 | 43% | 47% | 4 | 400 RV | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1216] | October 25–30 | 47.1% | 50.4% | 0.4% | 3.3 | 1,210 LV | ±2.8% |
| The Tennessean/Chattanooga Times Free Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1217] | October 19–21 | 41% | 53% | 1% | 12 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1218] | October 13–18 | 47.8% | 50.3% | 0.1% | 2.5 | 992 LV | ±3.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1219] | September 30–October 5 | 47.8% | 48.7% | 0% | 0.9 | 983 LV | ±3.1% |
| American Research Group [1220] | September 16–18 | 43% | 50% | 1% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1221] | September 13–17 | 45.9% | 51.4% | 0.1% | 5.5 | 943 LV | ±3.2% |
| The Tennessean/Chattanooga Times Free Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1222] | September 11–14 | 37% | 53% | 1% | 16 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1223] | August 30−September 3 | 43.6% | 53.2% | 0.4% | 9.6 | 916 LV | ±3.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1224] | August 16–21 | 49.6% | 47.7% | 0.3% | 1.9 | 768 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1225] | July 26–30 | 49.3% | 47.5% | 0.6% | 1.8 | 821 LV | ±3.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1226] | July 19–23 | 49.1% | 46.9% | 0.6% | 2.1 | 791 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1227] | July 6–10 | 47.5% | 47.5% | 0.9% | Tied | 708 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1228] | June 15–20 | 38.6% | 57.4% | 0.8% | 18.8 | 786 LV | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1229] | June 1–6 | 42.6% | 54.3% | 1% | 11.7 | 715 LV | ±3.7% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1230] | May 18–23 | 46.8% | 49.3% | 0.6% | 2.5 | 1,057 LV | ±3.0% |
34 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KPRC-TV Houston/KEYE-TV Austin/WOAI-TV San Antonio/SurveyUSA [1231] | October 26–28 | 37% | 59% | 22 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| Scripps Howard [1232] | October 11–28 | 32% | 58% | 26 | Not reported | Not reported |
| KPRC-TV Houston/KEYE-TV Austin/WOAI-TV San Antonio/SurveyUSA [1233] | October 9–11 | 37% | 60% | 23 | 598 LV | ±4.1% |
| KPRC-TV Houston/KEYE-TV Austin/WOAI-TV San Antonio/SurveyUSA [1234] | September 19–21 | 37% | 58% | 21 | 642 LV | ±3.9% |
| Scripps Howard [1235] | August 9–26 | 33% | 57% | 24 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1236] | August 1–26 | 38% | 57% | 19 | Not reported | ±3% |
| KPRC-TV Houston/KEYE-TV Austin/WOAI-TV San Antonio/SurveyUSA [1237] | August 20–22 | 37% | 58% | 21 | 705 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1238] | June 1–30 | 37% | 55% | 18 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1239] | May 1–31 | 38% | 55% | 17 | Not reported | ±3% |
| Scripps Howard [1240] | May 3–15 | 29% | 58% | 29 | 1,000 A | ±3% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [1241] | September 16–20 | 36% | 58% | 1% | 22 | 600 LV | ±4% |
5 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates [1242] | February 19 | 31% | 64% | 33 | 404 A | ±5.0% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates [1243] | October 21–28 | 24% | 69% | 1% | 45 | 1,228 RV | ±2.8% |
| Salt Lake Tribune/KUTV 2 News/Valley Research [1244] | October 21–26 | 23.3% | 68.3% | 2.3% | 45 | 1,200 RV | ±2.8% |
| American Research Group [1245] | September 10–13 | 27% | 64% | 4% | 37 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates [1246] | September 6–9 | 25% | 65% | 2% | 40 | 915 RV | ±3.3% |
| Deseret Morning News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates [1247] | May 10–13 | 22% | 67% | 3% | 45 | 923 A | ±3.2% |
3 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [1248] | September 9–12 | 50% | 40% | 4% | 10 | 600 LV | ±4% |
13 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA [1249] | October 27–29 | 47% | 51% | 4 | 606 LV | ±4.1% |
| NBC12 News/Richmond-Times Dispatch [1250] | October 20–26 | 40% | 49% | 9 | 751 LV | ±4% |
| The Daily Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1251] | October 22–25 | 44% | 50% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA [1252] | October 16–18 | 46% | 50% | 4 | 664 LV | ±3.9% |
| Zogby International [1253] | September 30–October 6 | 47% | 50% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
| The Daily Press/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1254] | September 24–27 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1255] | September 24–27 | 44% | 50% | 6 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA [1256] | September 21–23 | 42% | 53% | 11 | 744 LV | ±3.7% |
| American Research Group [1257] | September 12–14 | 43% | 49% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Zogby International [1258] | August 29 | 48% | 49% | 1 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1259] | August 1–26 | 45% | 50% | 5 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA [1260] | August 20–22 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 730 LV | ±3.7% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1261] | July 1–31 | 46% | 49% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| WSLS-TV Roanoke/SurveyUSA [1262] | July 6–8 | 45% | 50% | 5 | 686 LV | ±3.8% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1263] | June 1–30 | 45% | 48% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [1264] | June 1–6 | 41.9% | 50.3% | 8.4 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1265] | May 1–31 | 45% | 47% | 2 | Not reported | ±5% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby International [1266] | September 13–17 | 47% | 50% | 3% | 3 | Not reported | Not reported |
11 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1287] | October 25–30 | 54.6% | 43.4% | 0.3% | 11.2 | 1,832 LV | ±2.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1288] | October 13–18 | 54.3% | 43.9% | 0.4% | 10.4 | 1,440 LV | ±2.6% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1289] | September 30–October 5 | 53.7% | 43.8% | 0.7% | 9.9 | 1,418 LV | ±2.6% |
| The Columbian/Ipsos [1290] | September 17–20 | 51% | 42% | 2% | 9 | 406 RV | ±4.9% |
| American Research Group [1291] | September 9–13 | 51% | 44% | 2% | 7 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1292] | September 3–6 | 52% | 44% | 1% | 8% | 646 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1293] | August 30–September 3 | 52.7% | 44.2% | 0.5% | 8.5 | 1,265 LV | ±2.8% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1294] | August 16–21 | 53.1% | 44.7% | 0.6% | 8.4 | 1,038 LV | ±3.0% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA [1295] | August 15–17 | 51% | 43% | 2% | 8 | 602 LV | ±4.1% |
| Moore Information [1296] | August 14–15 | 50% | 44% | 4% | 6 | 600 RV | ±4% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA [1297] | July 31–August 2 | 51% | 43% | 3% | 8 | 585 LV | ±4.2% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1298] | July 26–30 | 52.6% | 44.8% | 1.2% | 7.8 | 1,162 LV | ±2.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1299] | July 19–23 | 52% | 44.4% | 1.5% | 7.6 | 1,155 LV | ±2.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1300] | July 6–10 | 52.6% | 44.4% | 0.8% | 8.2 | 1,073 LV | ±3.0% |
| Murray for Senate/Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin & Associates (D) [1301] | June 24–28 | 49% | 41% | 4% | 8 | 800 RV | ±3.8% |
| Moore Information [1302] | June 23–24 | 43% | 43% | 4% | Tied | 500 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1303] | June 15–20 | 51.6% | 45.2% | 1% | 6.4 | 1,246 LV | ±2.8% |
| Moore Information [1304] | June 9–11 | 45% | 44% | 4% | 1 | 500 RV | ±4% |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1305] | June 9–11 | 46% | 42% | 2% | 4 | 625 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1306] | June 1–6 | 51.7% | 44.3% | 1.9% | 7.4 | 1,767 LV | ±2.3% |
| KING-TV Seattle/KHQ-TV Spokane/SurveyUSA [1307] | June 1–3 | 49% | 44% | 3% | 5 | 654 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1308] | May 18–23 | 52.5% | 44.4% | 1.3% | 8.1 | 527 LV | ±4.3% |
5 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1309] | October 27–29 | 43% | 51% | 8 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1310] | October 15–18 | 44% | 49% | 5 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1311] | September 17–20 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 619 LV | ±5% |
| American Research Group [1312] | July 26–28 | 48% | 44% | 4 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [1313] | June 15–17 | 48% | 45% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [1314] | June 1–6 | 44.2% | 47.1% | 2.9 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1315] | April 15 | 41% | 46% | 5 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group [1316] | March 23–24 | 46% | 47% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1317] | October 25–30 | 45.6% | 50.1% | 0.2% | 4.5 | 584 LV | ±4.1% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1318] | October 13–18 | 45.8% | 48.6% | 0.7% | 2.8 | 501 LV | ±4.4% |
| Manchin for Governor/Global Strategy Group (D) [1319] | October 12–14 | 45% | 47% | 2% | 2 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1320] | September 30–October 5 | 44% | 50.1% | 0.7% | 6.1 | 501 LV | ±4.4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1321] | September 17–20 | 45% | 51% | 0% | 6 | 619 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1322] | September 13–17 | 38.8% | 51.2% | 1.1% | 12.4 | 528 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group [1323] | September 14–16 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1324] | September 13–14 | 44% | 45% | 0% | 1 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1325] | August 30–September 3 | 40.1% | 49.1% | 2.1% | 9 | 532 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1326] | August 16–21 | 41.5% | 49.3% | 1.8% | 7.8 | 504 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1327] | July 26–30 | 47.6% | 44.2% | 2.1% | 3.4 | 517 LV | ±4.3% |
| American Research Group [1328] | July 26–28 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1329] | July 19–23 | 44% | 47.9% | 2.1% | 3.9 | 512 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1330] | July 6–10 | 42.8% | 51% | 0.5% | 8.2 | 518 LV | ±4.3% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1331] | June 15–20 | 43.1% | 49.1% | 1.4% | 6 | 467 LV | ±4.5% |
| American Research Group [1332] | June 15–17 | 47% | 44% | 3% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1333] | June 1–6 | 46.6% | 43.5% | 2.4% | 3.1 | 490 LV | ±4.4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1334] | May 18–23 | 45.9% | 48.3% | 2% | 2.4 | 504 LV | ±4.4% |
| Associated Press/Ipsos [1335] | April 26–29 | 45% | 49% | 3% | 4 | 984 RV | ±3.1% |
| American Research Group [1336] | March 23–24 | 46% | 46% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1337] | September 16 | 44% | 50% | 1% | 1% | 6 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
10 electoral votes
(Democrat in 1996)
(Democrat in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [1338] | October 29–November 1 | 51% | 45% | 6 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1339] | October 27–29 | 48% | 46% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1340] | October 16–29 | 48% | 46% | 2 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [1341] | October 25–28 | 49% | 46% | 3 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [1342] | October 25–27 | 48% | 47% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Reuters/Zogby International (Daily Tracking) [1343] | October 21–24 | 45% | 48% | 3 | 601 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [1344] | October 16–19 | 47% | 47% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1345] | October 16–19 | 45% | 51% | 6 | 678 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1346] | October 3–5 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 704 LV | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1347] | September 14–27 | 46% | 49% | 3 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| ABC News [1348] | September 16–19 | 44% | 54% | 10 | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1349] | September 9–12 | 44% | 52% | 8 | 631 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1350] | September 1–12 | 49% | 47% | 2 | 400 LV | ±5% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1351] | August 23–26 | 47% | 50% | 3 | 645 LV | ±5% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1352] | August 1–26 | 48% | 45% | 3 | Not reported | ±5% |
| Los Angeles Times [1353] | August 21–24 | 44% | 48% | 4 | 512 LV | Not reported |
| American Research Group [1354] | July 13–15 | 49% | 44% | 5 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Hubert Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [1355] | June 21–July 12 | 45.9% | 48.4% | 2.5 | 575 RV | ±4% |
| Los Angeles Times [1356] | June 5–8 | 44% | 44% | Tied | 694 RV | ±4% |
| National Republican Committee/Public Opinion Strategies (R) [1357] | June 1–6 | 47.2% | 44.6% | 2.6 | 800 LV | ±3.46% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1358] | April 25 | 50% | 42% | 8 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) [1359] | March 23–31 | 45% | 49% | 4 | 500 A | ±4% |
Three-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [1360] | October 30–31 | 45% | 48% | 1% | 3 | 700 LV | ±3.7% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1361] | October 27–30 | 44% | 52% | 1% | 8 | 1,119 LV | ±3% |
| American Research Group [1362] | October 25–27 | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) [1363] | October 23–27 | 45% | 48% | 3% | 3 | 545 LV | ±4.1% |
| American Research Group [1364] | October 16–19 | 47% | 47% | 2% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1365] | October 16–19 | 44% | 50% | 3% | 6 | 678 LV | ±4% |
| Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [1366] | October 14–19 | 47% | 48% | 2% | 1 | 623 LV | ±4% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1367] | October 15–18 | 45% | 45% | 1% | Tied | 625 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1368] | October 13–18 | 51.3% | 47.5% | 0.2% | 3.8 | 883 LV | ±3.3% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College [1369] | October 4–13 | 48% | 43% | 2% | 5 | 401 LV | ±5% |
| Chicago Tribune/Market Shares Corp. [1370] | October 8–11 | 47% | 43% | 2% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1371] | October 3–5 | 46% | 49% | 2% | 3 | 704 LV | ±4% |
| America Coming Together/Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D) [1372] | October 3–5 | 48% | 44% | 1% | 4 | 600 LV | Not reported |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1373] | September 30–October 5 | 50.6% | 48.1% | 0.1% | 2.5 | 844 LV | ±3.4% |
| Wisconsin Policy Research Institute/Harris Interactive [1374] | September 22–26 | 40% | 50% | 6% | 10 | 562 LV | ±4% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) [1375] | September 15–21 | 38% | 52% | 4% | 14 | Not reported | Not reported |
| ABC News [1376] | September 16–19 | 43% | 53% | 1% | 10 | Not reported | ±3.5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1377] | September 13–17 | 50.3% | 47.9% | 0.3% | 2.4 | 771 LV | ±3.5% |
| MSNBC/Knight-Ridder/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [1378] | September 14–16 | 44% | 46% | 1% | 2 | 625 LV | ±4% |
| American Research Group [1379] | September 12–15 | 46% | 46% | 1% | Tied | 600 LV | ±4% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1380] | September 9–12 | 44% | 52% | 1% | 8 | 631 LV | ±5% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1381] | August 30–September 3 | 49.9% | 47.5% | 0.1% | 2.4 | 732 LV | ±3.6% |
| CNN/USA Today/Gallup [1382] | August 23–26 | 45% | 48% | 4% | 3 | 645 LV | ±5% |
| Los Angeles Times [1383] | August 21–24 | 44% | 45% | 3% | 1 | 512 LV | Not reported |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1384] | August 16–21 | 50.8% | 46.4% | 0.3% | 4.4 | 638 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1385] | July 26–30 | 49.7% | 47.8% | 0.2% | 1.9 | 634 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1386] | July 19–23 | 50.3% | 46% | 0.7% | 4.3 | 601 LV | ±4.0% |
| American Research Group [1387] | July 13–15 | 48% | 42% | 4% | 6 | 600 LV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1388] | July 6–10 | 53.3% | 43.9% | 0.7% | 9.4 | 551 LV | ±4.2% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) [1389] | June 15–23 | 42% | 46% | 5% | 4 | 504 A | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1390] | June 15–20 | 50.6% | 46.2% | 0.7% | 4.4 | 602 LV | ±4.0% |
| Los Angeles Times [1391] | June 5–8 | 42% | 44% | 4% | 2 | 694 RV | ±4% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1392] | June 1–6 | 50.4% | 44.5% | 1.3% | 5.9 | 646 LV | ±3.9% |
| Wall Street Journal/Zogby Interactive [1393] | May 18–23 | 51.9% | 43.7% | 1.4% | 8.2 | 841 LV | ±3.4% |
| America Coming Together/Lake, Snell, Perry & Associates (D) [1394] | April 26–28 | 49% | 40% | 2% | 9 | Not reported | Not reported |
| Journal Sentinel/Capital Times/University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) [1395] | April 20–28 | 38% | 50% | 6% | 12 | 511 A | ±4% |
| Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [1396] | April 25 | 45% | 41% | 8% | 4 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Wisconsin Public Radio/St. Norbert College [1397] | April 14–21 | 49% | 42% | 7% | 7 | 385 RV | ±5% |
| University of Wisconsin (Badger Poll) [1398] | March 23–31 | 41% | 47% | 5% | 6 | 500 A | ±4% |
| American Research Group [1399] | March 23–25 | 46% | 43% | 4% | 3 | 600 LV | ±4% |
Four-way race
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Michael Badnarik | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Badnarik for President/Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research (L) [1400] | October 14 | 48% | 47% | 1% | 1% | 1 | 500 LV | ±4.5% |
| Hubert Humphrey Institute/University of Connecticut [1401] | June 21–July 12 | 44.6% | 46.1% | 4% | 1.5% | 1.5 | 575 RV | ±4% |
3 electoral votes
(Republican in 1996)
(Republican in 2000)
| Poll Source | Date administered (2004) | John Kerry | George W. Bush | Ralph Nader | Margin | Sample size | Margin of error |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Research Group [1402] | September 9–11 | 29% | 65% | 2% | 36 | 600 LV | ±4% |