2004 United States presidential election in Maryland

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2004 United States presidential election in Maryland
Flag of Maryland.svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
Turnout78.03% [1] Increase2.svg
  John F. Kerry (wide crop).jpg George-W-Bush (cropped).jpeg
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote100
Popular vote1,334,4931,024,703
Percentage55.91%42.93%

Maryland Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
2004 United States presidential election in Maryland by congressional district.svg

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in Maryland took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

Maryland was won by Democratic nominee John Kerry by a 12.98% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all twelve news organizations considered this a state Kerry would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state. The last Republican to carry the state in a presidential election was Bush's father George H. W. Bush in 1988. As of the 2024 election, this is the last time a Republican presidential candidate won more than 40% of the vote in Maryland, the first time a Republican presidential candidate received more than a million votes in Maryland, and the last time a Democratic presidential nominee has failed to both break 60% of the vote and win by more than a 25% margin in Maryland. At the time, Bush's 1,024,703 votes were the most received by a Republican presidential candidate in the state's history, and would remain so until Donald Trump exceeded this figure in 2024. [2]

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [3]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportSolid D
Cook Political ReportLikely D
Research 2000Solid D
Zogby InternationalLikely D
Washington PostLikely D
Washington DispatchLikely D
Washington TimesSolid D
The New York TimesSolid D
CNNLikely D
NewsweekSolid D
Associated PressSolid D
Rasmussen ReportsLikely D

Polling

Kerry won every pre-election poll. The final 3 poll average showed Kerry leading 52% to 42%. [4]

Fundraising

Bush raised $4,174,964. [5] Kerry raised $7,553,542, which was 4% of the total money raised by Kerry in 2004. [6]

Advertising and visits

Neither campaign advertised or visited this state during the fall election. [7] [8]

Analysis

Bush did win most of the counties in Maryland, but he lost the central part of the state (Washington DC suburbs and Baltimore), where most of the population is. The middle section is very urban and includes a large number of African Americans, many of whom are affluent (specifically in the Democratic stronghold of Prince George's County). Bush dominated Western Maryland and the state's Eastern Shore, which are very rural, but he carried only two congressional districts (see below). However, Kerry's margin of victory was slightly less than in 2000, when Gore won by 16.39%. [9] This also marks the first time since 1880 in which Maryland gave a majority of its vote to a candidate that lost both the popular and electoral vote. This was the first time since 1980 that the state voted for the popular vote loser. [10]

Results

2004 United States presidential election in Maryland
PartyCandidateRunning mateVotesPercentageElectoral votes
Democratic Party John Kerry John Edwards 1,334,49355.91%10
Republican Party George W. Bush (incumbent) Dick Cheney (incumbent)1,024,70342.93%0
Populist Party [11] Ralph Nader Peter Camejo 11,8540.50%0
Libertarian Party Michael Badnarik Richard Campagna 6,0940.26%0
Green Party David Cobb Patricia LaMarche 3,6320.15%0
Constitution Party Michael Peroutka Chuck Baldwin 3,4210.14%0
Write Ins2,4810.11%0
Totals2,386,678100.00%10
Voter turnout (Voting Age population)59%

Results by county

CountyJohn Kerry
Democratic
George W. Bush
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal votes cast [12]
#%#%#%#%
Allegany 10,57635.42%18,98063.57%2991.01%-8,404-28.15%29,855
Anne Arundel 103,32443.11%133,23155.59%3,1121.30%-29,907-12.48%239,667
Baltimore 182,47451.62%166,05146.98%4,9541.40%16,4234.64%353,479
Baltimore City 175,02281.95%36,23016.96%2,3111.09%138,79264.99%213,563
Calvert 15,96740.58%23,01758.49%3670.93%-7,050-17.91%39,351
Caroline 3,81033.55%7,39665.13%1501.32%-3,586-31.58%11,356
Carroll 22,97428.95%55,27569.66%1,1001.39%-32,301-40.71%79,349
Cecil 14,68038.97%22,55659.87%4381.16%-7,876-20.90%37,674
Charles 29,35450.40%28,44248.84%4450.76%9121.56%58,241
Dorchester 5,41140.57%7,80158.48%1270.95%-2,390-17.91%13,339
Frederick 39,50339.27%59,93459.58%1,1571.15%-20,431-20.31%100,594
Garrett 3,29126.36%9,08572.77%1080.87%-5,794-46.41%12,484
Harford 39,68535.20%71,56563.48%1,4781.32%-31,880-28.28%112,728
Howard 72,25754.00%59,72444.63%1,8291.37%12,5339.37%133,810
Kent 4,27846.07%4,90052.77%1071.16%-622-6.70%9,285
Montgomery 273,93665.97%136,33432.83%4,9551.20%137,60233.14%415,225
Prince George's 260,53281.81%55,53217.44%2,4100.75%205,00064.37%318,474
Queen Anne's 7,07032.44%14,48966.48%2351.08%-7,419-34.04%21,794
Somerset 4,03444.85%4,88454.30%760.85%-850-9.45%8,994
St. Mary's 13,77636.33%23,72562.57%4151.10%-9,949-26.24%37,916
Talbot 7,36739.05%11,28859.84%121.11%-3,921-20.79%18,864
Washington 20,38735.21%36,91763.76%6001.03%-16,530-28.55%57,904
Wicomico 15,13740.36%21,99858.66%3680.98%-6,861-18.30%37,503
Worcester 9,64838.24%15,34960.84%2320.92%-5,701-22.60%25,229
Totals1,334,49355.91%1,024,70342.93%27,4821.16%309,79012.98%2,386,678
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic Maryland County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

County that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Kerry won six of eight congressional districts. [13]

DistrictKerryBushRepresentative
1st 36%62% Wayne Gilchrest
2nd 54%45% Dutch Ruppersberger
3rd 54%45% Ben Cardin
4th 78%21% Albert Wynn
5th 57%42% Steny Hoyer
6th 34%65% Roscoe Bartlett
7th 73%26% Elijah Cummings
8th 69%30% Chris Van Hollen

Electors

Technically the voters of Maryland cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Maryland is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards: [14]

  1. Norman Conway
  2. Delores Kelley
  3. Lainey Lebow Sachs
  4. Pam Jackson
  5. Dorothy Chaney
  6. John Riley
  7. Wendy Fielde
  8. Daphne Bloomberg
  9. Tom Perez
  10. Gary Gensler

See also

References

  1. "2004 Presidential Election - Statewide Voter Turnout". Maryland State Board of Elections.
  2. "Presidential Election 2024 Live Results: Donald Trump wins". www.nbcnews.com. November 22, 2024. Retrieved November 22, 2024.
  3. http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW [ permanent dead link ]
  4. "2004 Presidential Election Polls. Maryland Polls". US Election Atlas.
  5. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President".
  6. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democrat Party, President".
  7. "America votes 2004: Campaign ad buys". CNN. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  8. "America votes 2004: Candidate tracker". CNN . Retrieved May 27, 2022.
  9. "Maryland". Google Docs. Retrieved September 4, 2022.
  10. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved December 20, 2022.
  11. "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  12. Maryland State Board of Elections; 2004 Presidential General Election Official Results President and Vice President of the United States
  13. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project".
  14. "Current Election - Maryland State Board of Elections". Archived from the original on October 4, 2006. Retrieved October 8, 2009.