2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia

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2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia
Flag of West Virginia.svg
  2000 November 2, 2004 2008  
Turnout64.7% (of registered voters)
53.3% (of voting age population)
  George-W-Bush.jpeg John F. Kerry.jpg
Nominee George W. Bush John Kerry
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Texas Massachusetts
Running mate Dick Cheney John Edwards
Electoral vote50
Popular vote423,778326,541
Percentage56.06%43.20%

West Virginia Presidential Election Results 2004.svg
County Results

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia took place on November 2, 2004, and was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 5 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

Contents

West Virginia was won by incumbent President George W. Bush by a 12.86% margin of victory. Prior to the election, 8 of 12 news organizations considered this a state Bush would win, or otherwise considered as a red state, while others considered it a swing state. Democratic President Bill Clinton easily won this state in 1992 and 1996, but Bush carried the state in 2000 with just 51.92% of the vote. West Virginia is the only state to vote against George H. W. Bush both times and vote for George W. Bush both times. On election day, President Bush won here with a 6.53% better margin than his performance in 2000, signaling that the state was trending Republican at the presidential level. This was despite the fact that more than 50% of the state's population were registered Democrats, and both senators were Democrats.

This also marked the last election in which West Virginia voted for the same presidential candidate as neighboring Virginia, and the first election since 1944 in which West Virginia voted more Republican than Virginia. In the four subsequent U.S. presidential races since 2004, the Republican nominee won West Virginia while the Democratic nominee won Virginia. This is the last presidential election in which Fayette County, Brooke County, Logan County, and Mingo County voted Democratic. Bush was the first Republican since William McKinley to carry West Virginia twice.

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day. [1]

SourceRanking
D.C. Political ReportLikely R
Associated Press Toss-up
CNN Likely R
Cook Political Report Lean R
Newsweek Lean R
New York Times Lean R
Rasmussen Reports Likely R
Research 2000 Toss-up
Washington Post Toss-up
Washington Times Toss-up
Zogby International Likely R
Washington DispatchLikely R

Polling

Early on, pre-election polling showed the election as a pure toss up. But after September 14, Bush pulled away and reached 50% or higher in the polls. The final 3 poll average showed Bush leading 50% to 44%. [2]

Fundraising

Bush raised $527,380. [3] Kerry raised $627,425. [4]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state eight times; Kerry visited the state six times. [5] A total of between $100,000 and $550,000 was spent each week. As the election went on, both tickets spent less and less here each week. [6]

Analysis

More than any other state, West Virginia highlighted Kerry's trouble in Appalachian America. It swung heavily to the Democrats during the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt and remained reliably Democratic for most of the next 68 years. The state voted for Democrats (such as Jimmy Carter and Mike Dukakis) who went on to big national defeats. This was largely due to its blue-collar, heavily unionized workers, especially coal miners, who favored Democratic economic policy.

Starting with George W. Bush, however, the state's voters became more receptive to Republicans.

Results

2004 United States presidential election in West Virginia [7]
PartyCandidateRunning matePopular voteElectoral voteSwing
Count%Count%
Republican George W. Bush of Texas (incumbent) Dick Cheney of Wyoming (incumbent)423,77856.06%5100.00%Increase2.svg4.14%
Democratic John Kerry of Massachusetts John Edwards of North Carolina 326,54143.20%00.00%Decrease2.svg2.39%
Independent Ralph Nader of Connecticut Peter Camejo of California 4,0630.54%00.00%Increase2.svg0.54%
Libertarian Michael Badnarik of Texas Richard Campagna of Iowa 1,4050.19%00.00%Decrease2.svg0.11%
Independent John Kennedy (write-in) of -- of -130.00%00.00%Steady2.svg
Mountain David Cobb (write-in) of Texas Pat LaMarche of Maine 50.00%00.00%Decrease2.svg1.65%
Total755,887100.00%5100.00%

By county

CountyGeorge W. Bush
Republican
John Kerry
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
MarginTotal
#%#%#%#%
Barbour 4,00460.17%2,61039.22%410.62%1,39420.95%6,655
Berkeley 21,29363.03%12,24436.24%2480.73%9,04926.79%33,785
Boone 4,20741.25%5,93358.18%580.57%-1,726-16.93%10,198
Braxton 2,98649.35%3,03550.16%300.50%-49-0.81%6,051
Brooke 5,18948.17%5,49350.99%910.85%-304-2.82%10,773
Cabell 21,03555.43%16,58343.70%3320.87%4,45211.73%37,950
Calhoun 1,58854.97%1,26643.82%351.22%32211.15%2,889
Clay 2,19853.98%1,83545.06%390.95%3638.92%4,072
Doddridge 2,36274.30%80025.17%170.54%1,56249.13%3,179
Fayette 7,88146.45%8,97152.87%1150.68%-1,090-6.42%16,967
Gilmer 1,66558.38%1,15940.64%280.99%50617.74%2,852
Grant 4,06380.50%96319.08%210.42%3,10061.42%5,047
Greenbrier 8,35857.43%6,08441.81%1110.77%2,27415.62%14,553
Hampshire 5,48968.65%2,45530.70%520.65%3,03437.95%7,996
Hancock 7,29850.96%6,90648.22%1170.82%3922.74%14,321
Hardy 3,63568.90%1,61730.65%240.46%2,01838.25%5,276
Harrison 17,11155.94%13,23843.28%2390.79%3,87312.66%30,588
Jackson 7,68658.41%5,38440.92%880.66%2,30217.49%13,158
Jefferson 10,53952.71%9,30146.52%1530.77%1,2386.19%19,993
Kanawha 44,43050.53%43,01048.92%4880.55%1,4201.61%87,928
Lewis 4,44563.51%2,47535.36%791.13%1,97028.15%6,999
Lincoln 4,10249.35%4,04848.70%1621.95%540.65%8,312
Logan 7,04747.02%7,87752.56%630.42%-830-5.54%14,987
Marion 12,15048.23%12,77150.69%2731.08%-621-2.46%25,194
Marshall 8,51656.50%6,43542.70%1210.80%2,08113.80%15,072
Mason 6,48754.10%5,40845.10%950.80%1,0799.00%11,990
McDowell 2,76237.84%4,50161.67%360.49%-1,739-23.83%7,299
Mercer 13,05758.34%9,17841.01%1440.64%3,87917.33%22,379
Mineral 7,85468.53%3,51830.70%890.78%4,33637.83%11,461
Mingo 4,61243.28%5,98356.15%600.56%-1,371-12.87%10,655
Monongalia 17,67051.51%16,31347.55%3230.95%1,3573.96%34,306
Monroe 3,59060.33%2,31138.83%500.84%1,27921.50%5,951
Morgan 4,51165.88%2,27233.18%640.93%2,23932.70%6,847
Nicholas 5,48552.99%4,78846.26%780.75%6976.73%10,351
Ohio 11,69457.35%8,54341.89%1550.76%3,15115.46%20,392
Pendleton 2,14660.55%1,38138.97%170.48%76521.58%3,544
Pleasants 2,06160.00%1,34939.27%250.73%71220.73%3,435
Pocahontas 2,29558.58%1,57340.15%501.27%72218.43%3,918
Preston 7,85565.85%3,96333.22%1110.93%3,89232.63%11,929
Putnam 15,71662.49%9,30136.98%1340.53%6,41525.51%25,151
Raleigh 18,51960.67%11,81538.71%1910.62%6,70421.96%30,525
Randolph 6,51256.68%4,89242.58%860.75%1,62014.10%11,490
Ritchie 3,08673.55%1,07025.50%400.95%2,01648.05%4,196
Roane 3,44056.39%2,61242.82%480.79%82813.57%6,100
Summers 2,97853.91%2,50445.33%420.76%4748.58%5,524
Taylor 3,89359.43%2,61739.95%410.62%1,27619.48%6,551
Tucker 2,17960.53%1,40038.89%210.58%77921.64%3,600
Tyler 2,79865.91%1,40133.00%461.09%1,39732.91%4,245
Upshur 6,19166.62%3,03432.65%680.73%3,15733.97%9,293
Wayne 10,07054.11%8,41145.20%1280.69%1,6598.91%18,609
Webster 1,72446.42%1,96552.91%250.67%-241-6.49%3,714
Wetzel 3,65651.95%3,33047.31%520.74%3264.64%7,038
Wirt 1,72765.07%89633.76%311.17%83131.31%2,654
Wood 24,94863.60%14,02535.75%2540.65%10,92327.85%39,227
Wyoming 4,98557.18%3,69442.37%390.45%1,29114.81%8,718
Totals423,77856.06%326,54143.20%5,5680.74%97,23712.86%755,887
County Flips:
Democratic
Hold
Republican
Hold
Gain from Democratic West Virginia County Flips 2004.svg
County Flips:

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Bush won all 3 congressional districts, including two held by Democrats. [8]

DistrictBushKerryRepresentative
1st 58%42% Alan Mollohan
2nd 57%42% Shelley Moore Capito
3rd 53%46% Nick Rahall

Electors

Technically the voters of WV cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. WV is allocated 5 electors because it has 3 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 5 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 5 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 5 were pledged for Bush/Cheney:

  1. Rob Capehart
  2. Doug McKinney
  3. Dan Moore
  4. Richie Robb
  5. Larry Faircloth

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References

  1. "Archived copy". dcpoliticalreport.com. Archived from the original on November 21, 2010. Retrieved January 13, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  2. "Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Archived from the original on July 20, 2012.
  3. "George W Bush - $374,659,453 raised, '04 election cycle, Republican Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
  4. "John F Kerry - $345,826,176 raised, '04 election cycle, Democratic Party, President". Campaignmoney.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
  5. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
  6. "Specials". Cnn.com. Retrieved May 20, 2015.
  7. "Official General Election Results for US president (2004)" (PDF). p. 5. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 13, 2009. Retrieved July 17, 2009.
  8. "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. Retrieved May 20, 2015.